Energy System in the Sharing Economy
2014. 8. 29
한국 에너지 기술 평가원
원장 안 남 성
Third Industrial Revolution 2010 -
Mass Production Vertical Integration
Sharing Economy
Mass Customization Platform business using Network Effect (IoT, 3D Printing) Technology Innovation has led to High
Productivity, Low Cost
Revolution in Business
Land (Resource) Capital
Labor
제1차 산업 혁명이 인적 자원 생산성 향상(기계),
2차 산업 혁명은 자본의 생산성 향상(전력망, 자동차 등), 미래는 자원의 생산성 향상 (자원의 공유로 효율향상)이 가장 중요
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자본주의는 사물인터넷(IoT)이라는 혁명적인 플랫폼을 통해 미래 공유사회로 변화중 (Jeremy Rifkin)
Communication internet, energy internet, logistic internet 등 IoT 분야 기술혁신이 생산성 증대와 한계비용을 제로에 가깝게 만들면서 자본주의 경제(capitalism Economy)에서 ‘공유경제(Sharing Economy)’로 전환
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IoT, 3D 프린터와 오픈소스 스프트웨어를 통해 스스로 제품생산, 신재생에너지, 개방형 온라인 강의 등 대부분의 재화와 서비스를 모든 사람이 거의 무료로 공유,
•
Data Security 와 Protection of Personal Privacy 가 중요
공유 경제란?
대규모 자본 투자를 요구하는 현재의 수직 통합적 산업 구조에 기반한 자본주의 경제 구조 대신 IoT 기반 인프라 즉 Platform Business를 기반으로 자원의 생산성을 증가시키는 분산형, 협동적, 수평적 규모의
IoT and Sharing Economy
What is IoT(Internet of Things) ?
126.4lb
126.4lb
Digital Sensor M2M connection IoT
IoT란?
Comminication Internet, Energy Internet, Logistic Internet으로 구성된 지능형 네트워크에서
모든 기계, 사람
, 비즈니스, Residence, Vehicle를 하나로 연결하여 운영하는 시스템.- 4 -
Resource Revolution
근본적 효율 향상 방안 필요, 엔진 기술 향상보다는 자원의 공유를 통해 효율 향상
효율화 수단이IOT
The Platform Company
30%
from
others
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Network Effect and Complementary Goods
Installed Base
Attractiveness from Network Size Product
Attractiveness Market
Share
Sales Industry
Demand
Expected Market Size
Attractiveness from Availability of Complementary Goods
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
Complementary Network Effect
Complementary Goods
Attractiveness of Market to Third Party
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미래 혁신 기업은 돈을 남이 벌어주는 회사
•
지난
1년동안 애플은 주식 값이 30%이상 상승, 삼성은
15% 상승→ 15% 차이는 앱스토어(The third party Software) 차이
•
최근 삼성전자가 미국의 사물인터넷
(IoT·Internet of Things) 업체 ‘스마트싱스(SmartThings)’를 인수
Sharing Economy
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Uber – Car Sharing (IoT : Things à Car)
Now (2014) $18.2 B Worth More Than Hertz
$40/hr (20% Fee) San Francisco
1,600 Taxi vs. 1,000 Uber Market $22 B à Other
일반인도 택시 알바… '우버' 또 논란
정부로부터 택시기사 사업자 면허를 발급받을 필요가 없다. 우버가 정한 기준과 면접만 통과하면 된다. 우버코리아는 “보험에 가입된 자가 소유 자동차가 있는26세 이상 성인 중에서 우버엑스 기사를 뽑고 있다”고 밝혔다. 우버코리아는 당분간 승객에게 이용료를 안 받고 우버엑스를 시범 운영한 후 유료로 전환할 방침이다. 이처럼 우버가 사실상 택시 영업 시장 진출을 선언하면서 기존 택시기사들 의 반발도 커지고 있다. 중앙일보(2014.8.29)
Airbnb – House Sharing (IoT : Things à House)
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Now (2014) $10.0 B Worth More Than Hyatt 6~12% Fee
SNS Based Service
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Teslar Motors – Electricity Sharing (IoT : Things à VPP)
Now (2014) $32.4 B ($6.6 B)
Worth More Than 2/3 GM Motors
NEST Labs / View – Load Sharing (IoT : Things à T/S, Window)
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IoT à 에너지수요관리 Platform : NEST Labs Business Model
$40 ~ $4,900 /MWh
$110 ($85 /$25) 5,500 Households 50% sign up
13 MW reduction
$2 M rewards
IoT : Agenda for Global Governance (Standard, Format)
English (A, B, C…)
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IoT Platform : Industry 4.0 (Germany)
Samsung + Startup Alliance for IoT Era
August 14, 2014 3:36 PM
Samsung has bought prominent
connected-device startup SmartThings.
The South Korean giant announced the news today but didn’t disclose terms.
Re/code, citing anonymous sources, pegged the deal at around $200 million.
Today’s deal could have big implications in the growing Internet of things world, at least judging by the stated plans in the press release on the deal:
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IoT Platform : Industrial Internet (GE)
GE + Startup Alliance for IoT Era
SAN RAMON, Calif., June 25, 2014 – GE (NYSE: GE) announced today the launch of Frost I3, a new Industrial Internet incubator with Frost Data Capital to create and grow up to 30 new startups over the next three years.
GE’s Predix platform
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Sensor Infrastructure
Jet Engine
Maintenance crews can already gather data from jet engines like the GEnx
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Gas Turbine
Wind Power Up
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Energy system in sharing economy
EnergyTransportation
Centralization ( Urbanization) 19c Decentralization (Rural) 20c
PowerCommunication
Decentralized, local, small 21c
Coal
Steam Powered Train
Steam Engine
Telegraph, Steam Powered
Printing
Oil & Gas
Automobile
ICE, Motor
Telephone Radio, TV
Distributed Energy System (Renewable,
Demand Response, SMART Grid)
EV
Electricity
Internet,
IoT (Internet of Thing)
Communication/Energy/Logistics Matrix (Path Dependence)
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Historically, Market discovered and promoted a new engine for growth at each crisis :
Economic Driver for Job Creation and Economic Growth
Great Depression
(1929 – 1930)
World War, Cold War Military Industry
Internet and Network Economy
(1.6 new million jobs and Trillions in Profits )
Asia’s Financial Crisis
(1990s)
Dotcom Bubble (2000s)
Housing and Financing Economy
Financial Crisis (2008)
What is next Engine for Economic Growth?
Solution
Green Growth:
Renewable Energy & Nuclear
How about the outcomes of Green Growth Policy?
If not satisfied, why?
New Growth Engine
How much more Solar PV energy cost fall?
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Was Renewable energy the growth engine as expected?
These days the challenges that industries like solar, wind, and biofuels face are often not about fundamental science. Many of the big breakthroughs have already taken place, and in some circumstances, electricity from wind and solar is already cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels.)
What hampers there industries now is poor sales channels, complex financing and incentives, and a failure to communicate with consumers (Business Model).
That makes them ripe for disruption by the application of IT, which will drive the next phase of cost reduction and implementation, especially for solar….
(Source: S. Paul and N. Allen, MIT Technology Review, 2012)
Now
Tomorrow
Cost Reduction & Business model is the key!
More Business Model and Product Innovation combined with IT
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Economic Impact of Renewable Energy is relatively Low among 12 disruptive technologies
Communication Internet
Logistic Internet
Energy Internet
Potential economic impact of technologies
: Convergence of Disruptive Technologies Next Engine for Economic Growth
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Internet
Internet of Things
Mobile Internet+EV+Storage Customer Choice
Paradigm Shift in Energy Technology
: Convergence with Storage System
One Way of Additional Value Creation to Renewables
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Energy Buffer
New Energy Networks for Electric Mobility
RoboScooter
GreenWheel
CityCar
Mobility-on-Demand Systems
A Lightweight Electric Vehicle Ecosystem
New Use Model
Users are allowed to pick up electric vehicles from any charging station and drive to any other charging station in a one-way sharing scheme (point-to-point rental)
MIT Media Lab City Science MIT Media Lab
Changing Places & Smart Cities Group - 34 -
Multi-Modal Recommendation Engine
CityCar Persuasive Electric Vehicle (PEV)
RoboScooter & GreenWheel
(Source: Harvard Business Review 2013)
Disruptive technological innovation
Disruptive technological innovation:
신제품은5개 단계의 시장을 연속적으로 거쳐
대중성을 확보
Big-bang disruption:
신제품이 일부의 초기사용자만으로도 완벽하고 빠르게 광범위한 대부분의 시장에 수용됨
(ex) 스마트폰, 전기자동차, 스마트그리드
Big-Bang Disruption
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Why Tesla Motors Succeed so fast?
• Learning Curve for Battery Price:
from 4% to 8%
• Amount of Drive Range: from 50 miles to 250 miles
• The speed: already higher than you can legally go on any highway. It used to be golf cart speed, and now we’re talking about race cars.
• EV price: about a 40 percent learning curve, which means it almost halves with every year
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Given that annual new vehicle production is approaching 100 million per year and the global fleet is approximately 2 billion cars, it is impossible for Tesla to build electric cars fast enough to address the carbon crisis. By the same token, it means the market is enormous. Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of
gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day.
Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard.
All Our Patent Are Belong To You
By Elon Musk, CEO
Using Electrification of Ground Transportation System, We can save 30% of fossil fuel used in transportation without affecting ground transportation!
국민 발전소 Platform
발전소 효율을 증가 시키는 것은 매우 어려움
피크용 발전소는1% 정도 운전자원 낭비
Big Data를 이용하여 불필요한 전기를 줄여서 공유하는 시스템
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Value in 국민발전소
에너지 정책의 전환(공급중심 수요중심) 에너지 정책의 전환(공급중심 수요중심)
§ 피크시 수요관리로 고부가가치 창출
§ 수요자원의 거래를 통한 혁신적 시장조성
§ 피크시 수요관리로 고부가가치 창출
§ 수요자원의 거래를 통한 혁신적 시장조성
발전원가 절감 발전원가 절감
§ 피크시 시장가격이 오프피크시 보다 6~7배 높음
§ 시장가격을 1원 감소시키면 연간 1,500 억원 발전원가 절감
§ 피크시 시장가격이 오프피크시 보다 6~7배 높음
§ 시장가격을 1원 감소시키면 연간 1,500 억원 발전원가 절감
핵심 가치 창출 핵심 가치 창출
§ 연간 60~100시간 피크시 수요반응(DR)을 통한 시장가격조정이 효율적
§ 연간 60~100시간 피크시 수요반응(DR)을 통한 시장가격조정이 효율적
IoT for Demand Response in Factory
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Free Energy 시대 도래
Internet technology and renewable energies are beginning to merge to create an energy internet that will change the way the power is generated and distributed in society.
In the coming era, hundreds of millions of people will produce their own renewable energy in their homes, offices, and factories and share green
electricity with each other on energy internet at nearly zero marginal cost, just as we now generate and share information online.
When internet communications manage green energy, every human being on Earth becomes his or her own source of power. The creation of renewable regime, loaded by buildings, partially stored in the form of hydrogen, distributed via a green energy internet, and connected to plug-in, zero emission transport that will allow billions of people to share energy at near zero marginal cost in an IoT world.
25 years from now
That is beginning to evolve on a small scale as hundreds of start up businesses
established 3D printing operations, infofacting products at nearly zero marginal cost, powering their Fab Labs with their own green energy, marketing their goods for nearly free on hundreds of global websites, and delivering their products in electric and fuel cell vehicles powered their own green energy
(Jeremy Rifkin, Zero Marginal Cost Society)
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New York State is proposing to turn its electric utilities into a new kind of entity that would buy electricity from hundreds or thousands of small generators and set prices for that electricity and for the costs of running the power grid.
The proposal anticipates a radically different electric system, dominated by
decentralized production, much of it of renewable, intermittent energy sources like solar or wind power. The Public Service Commission is considering how the utilities would have to change.
Instead of distributing electricity themselves, the utilities would effectively direct traffic, coordinating distribution of electricity produced by a multitude of smaller entities,
according to an outline published last month by the commission, which regulates utilities
State Energy Plan Would Alter New York Utilities
How to reshape the energy system in sharing economy?
How to transform to a new energy system ? What do we need to prepare?
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Challenges in Energy Industry?
