Economic Risk and Decision Analysis Economic Risk and Decision Analysis for Oil and Gas Industry for Oil and Gas Industry CE81.9008 CE81.9008

1 Economic Risk and Decision Analysis

Economic Risk and Decision Analysis for Oil and Gas Industry

for Oil and Gas Industry CE81.9008

CE81.9008

School of Engineering and Technology School of Engineering and Technology

Asian Institute of Technology Asian Institute of Technology

January Semester January Semester

ByBy

Dr. Thitisak Boonpramote Dr. Thitisak Boonpramote

Department of Mining and Petroleum Engineering,

Department of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, ChulalongkornChulalongkornUniversityUniversity

Conditional Probability Conditional Probability

2 Joint Probability vs. Conditional Probability

Joint Probability vs. Conditional Probability

Tree Inversion Method Tree Inversion Method

3 Joint Probability using Venn Diagram

Joint Probability using Venn Diagram

Joint Probability Table Joint Probability Table

4 Probability Tree

Probability Tree

Baysian

BaysianAnalysis Example 1: Gravity SurveyAnalysis Example 1: Gravity Survey

5 Gravity Survey:

Gravity Survey: SolutionSolution

Revising Chance of Success Revising Chance of Success

6 Revising Chance of Success: Probability Tree

Revising Chance of Success: Probability Tree

Revising Chance of Success: Joint Probability Table Revising Chance of Success: Joint Probability Table

7 Revising Chance of Success: Flip the Tree

Revising Chance of Success: Flip the Tree

Revising Chance of Success from 2

Revising Chance of Success from 2^ndndWellWell

8 Revising Chance of Success from 2nd Well

Revising Chance of Success from 2nd Well

Decision Tree from Probability Tree Decision Tree from Probability Tree

9 Decision Tree: Solution

Decision Tree: Solution

Probability Tree Probability Tree

10 Flip the Tree: Solution

Flip the Tree: Solution

Bayes

BayesTheorem as a short cutTheorem as a short cut