Consider the problem of Humanex, a nonprofit organization deriving most of its income from the return on its endowment. Years ago, the founders of Best Candy willed a large block of Best Candy stock to Humanex with the provision that Humanex may never sell it.
This block of shares now comprises 50% of Humanex’s endowment. Humanex has free choice as to where to invest the remainder of its portfolio.2
The value of Best Candy stock is sensitive to the price of sugar. In years when world sugar crops are low, the price of sugar rises significantly and Best Candy suffers considerable losses.
We can describe the fortunes of Best Candy stock using the following scenario analysis:
Normal Year for Sugar Abnormal Year
Bullish Bearish
Stock Market Stock Market Sugar Crisis
Probability .5 .3 .2
Rate of return 25% 10% 25%
To summarize these three possible outcomes using conventional statistics, we review some of the key rules governing the properties of risky assets and portfolios.
Rule 1 The mean or expected returnof an asset is a probability-weighted average of its return in all scenarios. Calling Pr(s) the probability of scenario sand r(s) the return in sce- nario s, we may write the expected return, E(r), as
(6.2) Applying this formula to the case at hand, with three possible scenarios, we find that the expected rate of return of Best Candy’s stock is
E(rBest) (.5 25) (.3 10) .2(25) 10.5%
Rule 2 The varianceof an asset’s returns is the expected value of the squared deviations from the expected return. Symbolically,
(6.3) Therefore, in our example
.5(25 10.5)2.3(10 10.5)2 .2(25 10.5)2357.25
The standard deviationof Best’s return, which is the square root of the variance, is 18.9%.
Humanex has 50% of its endowment in Best’s stock. To reduce the risk of the overall portfolio, it could invest the remainder in T-bills, which yield a sure rate of return of 5%.
To derive the return of the overall portfolio, we apply rule 3.
Rule 3 The rate of return on a portfolio is a weighted average of the rates of return of each asset comprising the portfolio, with portfolio proportions as weights. This implies that the expectedrate of return on a portfolio is a weighted average of the expectedrate of re- turn on each component asset.
兹357.25 2Best
2
sPr(s)[r(s)E(r)]2 E(r)
sPr(s)r(s)
2The portfolio is admittedly unusual. We use this example only to illustrate the various strategies that might be used to control risk and to review some useful results from statistics.
Humanex’s portfolio proportions in each asset are .5, and the portfolio’s expected rate of return is
E(rHumanex) .5E(rBest) .5rBills
(.5 10.5) (.5 5) 7.75%
The standard deviation of the portfolio may be derived from rule 4.
Rule 4 When a risky asset is combined with a risk-free asset, the portfolio standard devi- ation equals the risky asset’s standard deviation multiplied by the portfolio proportion in- vested in the risky asset.
The Humanex portfolio is 50% invested in Best stock and 50% invested in risk-free bills. Therefore,
Humanex.5Best.5 18.9 9.45%
By reducing its exposure to the risk of Best by half, Humanex reduces its portfolio stan- dard deviation by half. The cost of this risk reduction, however, is a reduction in expected return. The expected rate of return on Best stock is 10.5%. The expected return on the one- half T-bill portfolio is 7.75%. Thus, while the risk premium for Best stock over the 5% rate on risk-free bills is 5.5%, it is only 2.75% for the half T-bill portfolio. By reducing the share of Best stock in the portfolio by one-half, Humanex reduces its portfolio risk premium by one-half, from 5.5% to 2.75%.
In an effort to improve the contribution of the endowment to the operating budget, Humanex’s trustees hire Sally, a recent MBA, as a consultant. Researching the sugar and candy industry, Sally discovers, not surprisingly, that during years of sugar shortage, SugarKane, a big Hawaiian sugar company, reaps unusual profits and its stock price soars.
A scenario analysis of SugarKane’s stock looks like this:
Normal Year for Sugar Abnormal Year
Bullish Bearish
Stock Market Stock Market Sugar Crisis
Probability .5 .3 .2
Rate of return 1% 5% 35%
The expected rate of return on SugarKane’s stock is 6%, and its standard deviation is 14.73%. Thus SugarKane is almost as volatile as Best, yet its expected return is only a notch better than the T-bill rate. This cursory analysis makes SugarKane appear to be an un- attractive investment. For Humanex, however, the stock holds great promise.
SugarKane offers excellent hedging potential for holders of Best stock because its return is highest precisely when Best’s return is lowest—during a sugar crisis. Consider Hu- manex’s portfolio when it splits its investment evenly between Best and SugarKane. The rate of return for each scenario is the simple average of the rates on Best and SugarKane because the portfolio is split evenly between the two stocks (see rule 3).
Normal Year for Sugar Abnormal Year
Bullish Bearish
Stock Market Stock Market Sugar Crisis
Probability .5 .3 .2
Rate of return 13.0% 2.5% 5.0%
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The expected rate of return on Humanex’s hedged portfolio is 8.25% with a standard devi- ation of 4.83%.
Sally now summarizes the reward and risk of the three alternatives:
Portfolio Expected Return Standard Deviation
All in Best Candy 10.50% 18.90%
Half in T-bills 7.75 9.45
Half in SugarKane 8.25 4.83
The numbers speak for themselves. The hedge portfolio with SugarKane clearly domi- nates the simple risk-reduction strategy of investing in safe T-bills. It has higher expected return andlower standard deviation than the one-half T-bill portfolio. The point is that, de- spite SugarKane’s large standard deviation of return, it is a hedge (risk reducer) for in- vestors holding Best stock.
The risk of individual assets in a portfolio must be measured in the context of the effect of their return on overall portfolio variability. This example demonstrates that assets with returns that are inversely associated with the initial risky position are powerful hedge assets.
To quantify the hedging or diversification potential of an asset, we use the concepts of covariance and correlation. The covariancemeasures how much the returns on two risky assets move in tandem. A positive covariance means that asset returns move together. A negative covariance means that they vary inversely, as in the case of Best and SugarKane.
To measure covariance, we look at return “surprises,” or deviations from expected value, in each scenario. Consider the product of each stock’s deviation from expected re- turn in a particular scenario:
[rBestE(rBest)][rKaneE(rKane)]
This product will be positive if the returns of the two stocks move together, that is, if both returns exceed their expectations or both fall short of those expectations in the sce- nario in question. On the other hand, if one stock’s return exceeds its expected value when the other’s falls short, the product will be negative. Thus a good measure of the degree to which the returns move together is the expected valueof this product across all scenarios, which is defined as the covariance:
Cov(rBest, rKane) Pr(s)[rBest(s) E(rBest)][rKane(s) E(rKane)] (6.4) In this example, with E(rBest) 10.5% and E(rKane) 6%, and with returns in each scenario summarized in the next table, we compute the covariance by applying equation 6.4. The co- variance between the two stocks is
Cov(rBest, rKane) .5(25 10.5)(1 6)
.3(10 10.5)(5 6) .2(25 10.5)(35 6) 240.5
The negative covariance confirms the hedging quality of SugarKane stock relative to Best Candy. SugarKane’s returns move inversely with Best’s.
sCONCEPT C H E C K
☞
QUESTION 5
Suppose the stock market offers an expected rate of return of 20%, with a standard deviation of 15%. Gold has an expected rate of return of 6%, with a standard deviation of 17%. In view of the market’s higher expected return and lower uncertainty, will anyone choose to hold gold in a portfolio?
Normal Year for Sugar Abnormal Year
Bullish Bearish
Stock Market Stock Market Sugar Crisis
Probability .5 .3 .2
Rate of Return (%)
Best Candy 25 10 –25
SugarKane 1 –5 35
An easier statistic to interpret than the covariance is the correlation coefficient,which scales the covariance to a value between 1 (perfect negative correlation) and 1 (perfect positive correlation). The correlation coefficient between two variables equals their co- variance divided by the product of the standard deviations. Denoting the correlation by the Greek letter , we find that
This large negative correlation (close to 1) confirms the strong tendency of Best and Sug- arKane stocks to move inversely, or “out of phase” with one another.
The impact of the covariance of asset returns on portfolio risk is apparent in the follow- ing formula for portfolio variance.
Rule 5 When two risky assets with variances and , respectively, are combined into a portfolio with portfolio weights w1 and w2, respectively, the portfolio variance is given by
In this example, with equal weights in Best and SugarKane, w1 w2 .5, and with Best18.9%, Kane14.73%, and Cov(rBest, rKane) 240.5, we find that
(.5218.92) (.5214.732) [2 .5 .5 (240.5)] 23.3
so that P 4.83%, precisely the same answer for the standard deviation of the returns on the hedged portfolio that we derived earlier from the scenario analysis.
Rule 5 for portfolio variance highlights the effect of covariance on portfolio risk. A pos- itive covariance increases portfolio variance, and a negative covariance acts to reduce port- folio variance. This makes sense because returns on negatively correlated assets tend to be offsetting, which stabilizes portfolio returns.
Basically, hedging involves the purchase of a risky asset that is negatively correlated with the existing portfolio. This negative correlation makes the volatility of the hedge as- set a risk-reducing feature. A hedge strategy is a powerful alternative to the simple risk- reduction strategy of including a risk-free asset in the portfolio.
In later chapters we will see that, in a rational market, hedge assets will offer relatively low expected rates of return. The perfect hedge, an insurance contract, is by design per- fectly negatively correlated with a specified risk. As one would expect in a “no free lunch”
world, the insurance premium reduces the portfolio’s expected rate of return.
兹23.3 2p
2pw2121w22222w1w2Cov(r1, r2)
p2
22
12
240.5
18.914.73 .86 (Best, SugarKane)Cov[rBest, rSugarKane]
BestSugarKane
SUMMARY
1. Speculation is the undertaking of a risky investment for its risk premium. The risk pre- mium has to be large enough to compensate a risk-averse investor for the risk of the in- vestment.2. A fair game is a risky prospect that has a zero-risk premium. It will not be undertaken by a risk-averse investor.
3. Investors’preferences toward the expected return and volatility of a portfolio may be ex- pressed by a utility function that is higher for higher expected returns and lower for higher portfolio variances. More risk-averse investors will apply greater penalties for risk. We can describe these preferences graphically using indifference curves.
4. The desirability of a risky portfolio to a risk-averse investor may be summarized by the certainty equivalent value of the portfolio. The certainty equivalent rate of return is a value that, if it is received with certainty, would yield the same utility as the risky port- folio.
5. Hedging is the purchase of a risky asset to reduce the risk of a portfolio. The negative correlation between the hedge asset and the initial portfolio turns the volatility of the hedge asset into a risk-reducingfeature. When a hedge asset is perfectly negatively cor- related with the initial portfolio, it serves as a perfect hedge and works like an insurance contract on the portfolio.
KEY TERMS
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CONCEPT C H E C K
☞
QUESTION 6
risk premium risk averse utility
certainty equivalent rate
risk neutral
risk lover
mean-variance (M-V) criterion
indifference curve hedging
diversification
expected return variance
standard deviation covariance correlation
coefficient