4.2 The Conceptual Model/Framework
4.2.2 Mediating Variables
According to the conceptual framework (Fig.4.1), the hypothesised moderating variables include the causes of optimism, project manager’s demographic
characteristics, and project manager’s personality traits respectively. The causes of optimism in this case include factors such as self-presentation, self-enhancement, and
118 perceived control respectively (Meshack, 2016; Pyszczynski, 1993; Kafayat, 2014;
Diehl, 2014). The impact of such factors is that they lead to an individual’s overall expectations and motivations, which can either, be over-optimism or under-optimism (Sharon, 2012; Thomas, 2013; Brach and Brown, 2010; De Meza, 2017) as previously discussed. Demographic characteristics are defined as the socio-economic
characteristics of a population expressed statistically (Dulewicz, 2008). The subject of demographic characteristics relates much with the personality traits of members of the society including project managers, Chief Executive Officers and other leaders
(Dulewicz, 2008). Traits are determined by the society that one grows in as well as the socio-economic setup of the society that one is raised in. The human mind is designed in such a way that its perceptions and reactions towards several things are influenced by the way the society views or perceives it (Crawford, 2011). Education level goes hand in hand with skills. Skills are defined as the learned capacity to carry out specific tasks competences or the talents to do things. Various personality traits are determined by the skill that one possesses. Traits such as over-optimism which at many times result to the underestimation of the complexity or toughness of the project are usually as a result of lack of skill in the particular field resulting from low education levels (Crawford, 2011).
Education levels also at many times causes the characteristic of pessimism in individuals especially those people who possess a high degree of skill in the particular field (Turner, 2010). They tend to figure out all possible risks that are likely to occur in the course of the implementation of the project plan especially in instances where the project is novel. They may even end up discouraging those interested in the success of the program by constantly questioning the applicability of the project plan, the
119 weaknesses of the plan, the challenges that the plan is likely to face and the high
chances of the failure of the project (Turner, 2010).
Age is another demographic characteristic which has over time been regarded as a factor so crucial in the appointment or selection of project managers. Upon the
constitution of a team of project leaders many people prefer people who are aged, and this can be argued to be the need of having more experienced leaders but the reality is that people of vast ages are preferred for the wisdom that they possess and for the quality of decisions that they make which assure the realization of the project as well as the avoidance of the occurrence of cost overrun (Turner, 2010). Nonetheless, this should not be interpreted to mean that young people cannot be wise in leading project success as this is a misconception that this study will seek to examine.
The relationship between demographic characteristics and projects specifically traits of project leaders and project cost overrun is so proximal that it cannot be
overlooked. The upbringings of project leaders and their socio-economic characteristics have an effect on their personality traits which then impact either negatively on their deliverance of the mandates bestowed upon them. This may result in the achievement of the project at its estimated cost, cost lower than the estimated cost, cost overrun or even a failure of the project. In this regard, the current conceptual framework will seek to examine of demographic factors can in any way influence cognitive bias for project decision making and performance.
Another important mediating factor is project manager’s personality traits. For instance, interpersonal replication is a trait that is exhibited amongst leaders of various projects. This is the way a person’s character mutates over time to accommodate the views ideas and schools of thought of the people he relates with over time (Pyszczynski,
120 1993). Leaders of the projects interrelate with one another resulting in an interchange of characters and traits. The change of these traits leads to a change of attitudes as well and this leads to conflicting behaviours and traits. As a result, cognitive dissonance is a concept to be figured in this.
Internal conflicts at times affect the decision-making capacity of a person especially those persons mainly tasked with the role of making resolutions. This is because internal conflicts result in attitude change as well as behavioural change (Rabin, 1991). The way that a person is likely to address subordinates, peers, or even seniors result to change in the approach of decision making (Rabin, 1991). Further, perceptions of the resolution to be made also plays an important role in the traits, desired attitude and behaviours of the particular leader (Elliot, 1994). Where a project leader has been coerced to make a particular decision his attitude to the particular decision shall not be the same to that which he agreed to make the decision wilfully. In order to understand the impact of independent and mediating variables on mega projects, it is also important to contextualize the dependent variables of the study.