Prof. Ramzy R. Obaid
ECE Dept.
Faculty of Engineering
King Abdul Aziz University
Future of DSM in Saudi Arabia
ﺰﻳﺰﻌﻟﺍﺪﺒﻋ ﻚﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻣﺎﺟ
King Abdul Aziz University ﻲﺳﺍﺮﻜﻟﺍ
ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ
Fourth Workshop: New Frontiers in DSM: Techniques and Practical Applications
Dreams for the Future!
2
Every consumer....
Residential or Industrial
Governmental or Commercial
Would have proper management of their electricity demand
Would have better control over their electricity demand
Would have significantly reduced their electricity demand
A Dream two years ago!
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Peak Load (MW)
Drop of figures of the SEC Annual Electricity Report!
A dream that total peak loads would drop in 2011 onward.
Wake up to face reality!
4
18% increase in peak loads from 2009 to 2011!
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 21,673 23,582 23,938
26,272 27,847 29,913 31,240
34,953
38,000
41,200
45,661
48,367
Total Peak Loads (MW)
Wake up to face reality!
15% increase in available capacity from 2009 to 2011!
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 22,060 23,230
25,457 27,018 27,711 29,051
34,825 36,949
39,242
44,582
50,000 51,148
Available Generation Capacity (MW)
Roadmap!
6
A lot has been done in the past two years!
But a lot more needs to be done!
Need to Solve more critical problems!
What are the crucial problems?
What is the right way to go?
How can we plan the future and live it,,, Not dream about it!
What has been done
DSM Techniques... Do they really work?
They do! But other things should be done along with applying TOU!
Especially for Saudi Arabia!
What else should be done?
There is another crucial problem besides managing demand!
Why esp. for Saudi Arabia?
Low tariff =>> everyone affords electricity!
=> Spoiled and Wasteful consumers!!
8
What has been done
Main reasons for DSM programs won’t work alone:
Spoiled consumers won’t be influenced by incentives and penalties alone.
It is difficult to change the tariff for residential sector!
Note: The fixed low tariff is a blessing!
The low tariff is not the problem, since the government takes on the burden!
The More Crucial Problem
Electricity Demand
itself!!
What has been done
10
Market Deregulation... Does it really work?
It does! But we will not see its fruits now!
The case in Saudi Arabia is special!
Why won’t show best results now?
Government subsidizing contract expires after 8 years!
What is special about Saudi Arabia?
Fixed Low tariff =>> No competition!
=> There is no real Power Market!!
What has been done
Market Deregulation:
Dividing the single utility company into multiple sub-companies: Gen. , Trans., and Dist.
May solve internal administrative issues in the utility company!
Issues not necessarily directly related to the energy loss problems!
Consumers will feel the change eventually.
12
The Real Problem and the Right Way
One problem is overshadowing all other problems in the power system...called...
The Demand!
Solving the demand issue first exposes all other problems in the network.
Allowing to solve other problems respectively!
The first problem!
Impact of the term “Demand Side”
The Utility versus the Demand “Side”
Demand: The most important player in the Grid
The reason there is a Grid in the first place!
The power Grid
• An integration of many components, including demand
• Each component has its role and responsibilities
• The Demand is an integral part that plays a very crucial role in the power Grid
14
The More Crucial Concern
Electricity Demand itself!!
• Unnecessarily and unrealistically high!
• Inflated and not reasonable!
• Not properly accounted for!
• Cannot be adequately predicted!
• Does not reflect the real need of consumers!
• Doesn't really have to be met!
Difficulty in Demand Prediction!
Difference between installed available capacities and peak demand is not fixed
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Annual Total Peak Loads vs. Installed Capacities
Total Peak Loads Installed Capacity
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Year
Most Likely High Growth Low Growth
Peak Load (MW)
Peak Load (MW)
Peak Load (MW)
2008 33,930 36,720 32,816
2013 41,940 48,253 39,468
2018 50,218 63,415 46,371
2023 57,808 83,779 52,588
Difficulty in Demand Forecast*
We are already at 50,000MW peak loads in 2012!
*Study by KFUPM in 2005
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The Huge Burden on SEC!
41,924MW of actual generation capacity produces 367,254GWh of energy.
SEC sold 219,662GWh of energy!
This means it costs the company 147,592GWh of unsold electricity to provide the needed demand!
A huge loss on the company!
Excerpt from SEC Annual Report 2011
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The Reality!
Current Electricity Demand Structure
Overburdens the Utility Generation!!
No Reliable data on consumers demand!
Consumption history has limited value!
When a small factory installs a 200A electric
meter; the factory demand cannot be accurately anticipated!
The factory might need only 120A max, while the utility is bound to have 200A available for it!
The needed way to go
Focus on the Demand
Fix the Demand Audit the Demand Control the Demand
Have a better prediction of the Demand
Then, all other issues and problems can be solved, respectively.
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Demand Uncertainty Overshadows system losses
Generation
Losses Losses Losses in Gen. in Trans. in Dist.
? ? ?
Load
Transmission Distribution
?
Losses Losses Losses in Gen. in Trans. in Dist.
? ? ?
Demand Certainty Exposes system losses
Losses Losses Losses in Gen. in Trans. in Dist.
Generation Transmission Distribution Load Losses Losses Losses
in Gen. in Trans. in Dist.
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How can we Fix the Demand?
There are many different ways Example, One way:
Consumer Bidding:
Let the consumers define the load demand
Allow for both, short term and long term bidding
Create a Market similar to the Oil trading Market
Benefits of Fixing the Demand
Oil Market:
Buyers Bid for future purchases from one month to up to several years ahead
Buyers play a big role in
determining export quantities Benefit: ARAMCO knows
exactly how much to export everyday
Benefit: No waste in Oil export
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How can we Fix the Demand?
Oil Market:
Demand quantity is known and locked
Buying price fluctuates
Saudi Electricity Market:
Tariff is known and locked Load demand fluctuates
Fixing the Demand
Example:
A Large consumer has meters adding to 5MW.
Daily Peak Load levels range from 1MW to 4MW.
Let the consumer bid on how much electricity he is committed to buy every week. And provide a schedule for the daily occurring peak load.
The consumer will calculate his average (say 2.4MW) times 24hr times 7days = 400MWh.
Now the consumer becomes locked at this
amount and the utility company is bound by that.
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Fixing the Demand
Example:
The consumer is allowed a slack of say 2%.
The tariff for the 400MWh would be say 0.15Riyal/kWh.
This is guaranteed sold energy, so if the consumer consumes less in that week, it is his loss.
If the consumer draws more than the 400MWh, he will be charged 3 Riyal/kWh for the amount above the slack of 2%.
Fixing the Demand
Benefits:
Before: the electricity company was required to provide 5MW of available capacity everyday.
This adds up to 840MWh of generated electricity (Just In case the consumer needs it).
Whatever the consumer does not use, is the loss of the company.
With Bidding: the company would generate half of that amount, and the consumer is responsible for the loss of what is not used.
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Fixing the Demand
Benefits:
The consumer becomes more responsible with regards to his load demand.
The consumer will feel obliged to fix his bids so that he does not pay for more than what he really needs.
The company will have better prediction for the load demand.
DSM Techniques can then be applied to eliminate additional losses.
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Peak Load (MW)
Final Words
Let’s solve the demand problem
Let’s make the dream of dropping load
demand a reality for the coming years
Thank you!
* Pictures source: images of Google.com
