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17.5 Conclusion
In this chapter, daily reports of the COVID-19 cases through different countries of the world were used to discover important periods of the disease. The results indicate that the COVID-19 has different short-term and long-term periods in different countries of the world, but in general, the main important periods were between 2 and 7 days, which had been demonstrated by clinical study for limited countries. Significant long periods, such as 66 days and 41 days, have also been detected by CWT. Then, by DWT, the features were extracted and important periods were used as a delay on the main signal and the extracted features. The neural network was then built based on the results of the previous steps and the COVID-19 cases were predicted. Results were acceptable with an average train and test RMSEIQR equivalent to 1.2785 and 0.6695, respectively.
Conclusion 225 Finally, hot/cold spots were identified by analyzing spatiotemporal patterns. The existence of 48.78% and 13.20% of oscillation and consecutive hot spot patterns around the world indicate the widespread spatiotemporal distribution of this epidemic. Prediction and analysis of hot/cold spots are useful for finding high-risk areas. Accurate predictions of cases and deaths can help politicians and decision-makers to legislate until the COVID-19 vaccine is discovered. A comparison of various neural networks and their tunes with optimization methods may be discussed in future research.
Also, effective environmental and social factors in the COVID-19 and the impact of neighboring countries will be extracted which are recommended for further study in this field.
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Part III
Regional, Country and Local Applications
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18
London in Lockdown: Mobility in the Pandemic City
Michael Batty, Roberto Murcio, Iacopo Iacopini, Maarten Vanhoof and Richard Milton
This chapter looks at the spatial distribution and mobility patterns of essential and non-essential workers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in London, and compares them to the rest of the UK. In the 3-month lockdown that started on 23 March 2020, 20%
of the workforce was deemed to be pursuing essential jobs. The other 80% were either furloughed which meant being supported by the government to not work, or working from home. Based on travel journey data between zones (983 zones in London; 8,436 zones in England, Wales and Scotland), trips were decomposed into essential and non-essential trips. Despite some big regional differences within the UK, we find that essential workers have much the same spatial patterning as non-essential for all occupational groups containing essential and non-essential workers. Also, the amount of travel time saved by working from home during the Pandemic is roughly the same proportion – 80% – as the separation between essential and non-essential workers. Further, the loss of travel, reduction in workers, reductions in retail spending as well as increases in use of parks are examined in different London boroughs using Google Mobility Reports which give us a clear picture of what has happened over the last 6 months since the first Lockdown. These reports also now imply that a second wave of infection is beginning.