Past Advance and Future Challenges
2.1 Introduction
Terms such as emerging economy or emerging-market economy have been used mostly in journalism or the business world. As such, they have seldom been subject to scholarly scrutiny. To begin with, the exact meaning of “emerging” has never been clarified. There is only a vague consensus that these economies are highly attractive
K. Tsunekawa (
B
)National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan e-mail:[email protected]
© The Author(s) 2019
T. Shiraishi and T. Sonobe (eds.),Emerging States and Economies, Emerging-Economy State and International Policy Studies,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2634-9_2
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for global traders and investors. Furthermore, as the terms “emerging economy”
or “emergingmarket economy” illustrate, an overwhelming focus has been placed on the economic development of certain countries or regions that are supposed to be “emerging.” In practice, economic development is frequently accompanied by sociopolitical transformation, which in turn either fosters or constrains the future trajectory of economic development. Furthermore, rapid economic development of certain countries frequently has serious repercussions for security relations among the nations. For this reason, I use the term emerging “state” instead of emerging
“economy” in this chapter.1
The purpose of this chapter is threefold: first, to define and identify the “emerging state;” second, to clarify the nature of their development in economic, social, and political terms; and third, to explore the kinds of challenges they face as they develop and achieve higher levels of economic and social complexity. As the “emerging” phe- nomenon most noticeably occurred in the 1990s and 2000s—during which time the pace of the global exchange of goods, money, human talents, and information quick- ened and global trade increased exponentially—I will examine it by looking closely at its relationship with globalization. The emerging states have been among those most deeply integrated into the global economy and have consequently benefited from and been constrained by globalization.
Identifying emerging states, just like defining “developing countries” or “middle- income countries,” is a risky practice because a certain arbitrariness is unavoidable in the selection of categorization standards. However, in the following section, I will venture to introduce certain standards and to identify twenty-eight countries as
“emerging states.”
Before proceeding, I should clarify what this chapter is not about. It does not attempt any empirical analysis that rigorously tests mutual or causal relationships among various factors. The samples are too selective (they do not contain “non- emerging” states) and the potentially relevant variables (economic, social, political, and institutional) are too diverse to allow me to design a meaningful empirical anal- ysis. This chapter will only try to depict general patterns of economic development and sociopolitical change that have been observed in the selected emerging states.
On the other hand, this chapter is also not a small-N study. It covers as many as twenty-eight countries, and therefore certain details and nuances will have to be compromised. It is not based on original research but relies heavily on secondary materials. The main goal of the chapter is to draw a big picture illustrating the
“emerging” phenomenon and indicating directions of future research on the emerging state.
Third, this chapter does not directly deal with impacts of the “emerging” phe- nomenon on the inter-state relations. The focus of this chapter is the other way around: how and why global factors have affected the “emerging” phenomenon.
1The entities that are not “independent” national states under the United Nations system will be treated as “emerging states” for the sake of simplicity if their economy operates in a sufficiently autonomous manner (without other countries’ intervention).
This chapter is organized in the following manner. In Sect.2.2, I will present and justify my definition of the emerging state and will select twenty-eight states that fit that definition for the period of 1990–2014. I will also point out that such attempts at defining the emerging state cannot be free from arbitrariness and that the list of the potential emerging states can be expanded by broadening the definition. In addition, Sect. 2.2will mention that the “emerging” phenomenon is not new but there are historical antecedents during both the pre-WWII and post-WWII periods.
Section 2.3will explore the existing literature related to the nature of global- ization, distinguishinginstitutionalglobalization andeconomicglobalization. This section will explore three different positions regarding the economic, social, and political impacts of globalization upon individual national states: optimist, alarmist, and cautious.
In Sect.2.4, I will examine the extent to which the positive and negative views of globalization are supported by what has actually happened in the last twenty to twenty-five years, specifically by examining the relationship between the extent of globalization on the one hand and economic growth, social improvement, and politi- cal transformation (democratization) on the other. This section will demonstrate that the emerging states have been able to gain economic benefits from economic glob- alization but have avoided being constrained by institutional globalization because they were able to attract global traders and investors by offering certain advantage factors such as large domestic markets, natural resources, and the requisite techno- logical capability, or a combination thereof. However, this section will point out that mere dependence on natural-resource export or domestic market does not guarantee a long-term economic development. As for social and political repercussions of the globalization, Sect.2.4will elucidate that no simple pattern is observed.
Section2.5will then attempt to explain the divergence of globalization’s impacts on the emerging states by focusing on institutional diversities. Since the period of rapid globalization is also regarded as that of political regime changes (to democ- racy or pseudo-democracy), a special attention will be paid to examining whether such political change is associated with the economic and social performance of the emerging states.
Section2.6is concerned with the challenges emerging states face while attempt- ing to realize further economic and social advancement. This section will argue that, in the final analysis, the prospects of emerging states largely depend on the coor- dination capability of their public institutions. These public institutions must help upgrade the technological capability of domestic firms and the domestic workforce and must strengthen redistributive measures for populations and regions left out of the global integration process, thus broadening and deepening domestic linkages and cohesion. Section2.6will then indicate five factors that can affect the coordi- nation capability of public institutions in the emerging states: government-private sector relations, middle-class conservatism, populist mobilization, institutional and ideational legacies from the past, and the nature of the country’s political leadership.
In the concluding section, I will argue that the enhancement of domestic linkages is not only an economic or technical matter but is also deeply connected to politi- cal factors. The reason is that pro-linkage endeavors require complex coordination
among many groups across the social spectrum. This section will also point out that the five factors that can affect such coordination in the emerging states should simultaneously be among the priority areas of scholarship for futureemerging-state studies.