I^^NHONCV/iNOEKINNTEVllllO
L G i d l t h i ^ u
Oau tu gian tiep nudc ngoai (FPi - Foreign Portfolio Investnnent) l i d5ng von ciia nhQng nha tin tU niiflc ngoai thilc hien viec dau tU vao c6 phieu, trai phieu cua mat guoc gia de tim kISm Idi nhuan hoac diu cd (Chaudhry va cong su 2014). FPI giup nha dau tU nUdc ngoai hucing Idi nhuan ma I<h6rg phil true tiep quan II doanh nghiep; ben canh do, doi vdi cac quSc gia nhan dong von FPI, cic t i i sin t i l chinh duoc chu chuyen nhanh hdn gIBa cic khu vUc. Loai hinh diu tu niy tang trudng manh me trong hdn 3 thap ki gin day v i l i nguon dau tU quan trong cac quoc gia phat trien v i dang phit trien (Ekeocha v i cdng sU 2012). Vi viy, cic nhi kinh te hoc ngiy cing chu trong den FPI thdng qua nhieu nghien cUu iy thuyet v i thdc nghiem ve t i c ddng ciia ddng von niy den nen kinh te cic qudc gia md cila nhu Brennan & Cao (1997), Garibaldi (2002), Goldstein & Razin (2006), Hau & Rey (2006), Iblcioglu (2012), Combes v i cdng sd (2012), Gumus va cdng sU (2013),... v i cic nghien CLTU khic.
Viet Nam, mdt quoc gia nhd, d i tl^n hinh md cifa thUdng mai v i c i t i l chinh tu nhflng nim 1990, die biet nam 2000, thi trudng chdng khoin Vi0t Nam ra ddi vdi cdt mdc l i Sd Giao dich ChUng khoan Thinh phd Hd Chi Minh - HOSE (ngiy 20/07/2000). Sau dd, giai doan 2001 - 2007, dUdc coi l i giai doan tang trudng manh cua ddng vdn dau tU giin tiep do nen kinh te d i duoc phuc hdi sau cudc "khiing hoing tien te Chau A1997", cdng vdi sU phit trien manh cOa kinh te Viit Nam trong glal doan niy (xem Bleu dd 1).
Oen cudi nam 2007, xuat hiin tinh trang IUdng USD Idn vao th| trudng ChUng khoan Viit Nam, trong 9 tj USD
* Dal hoc Kinh te TP. H6 Chi Minh
Q TAP CHi NGAN HANG | SO 24 | THANG 12/2015
DDNGVDNDlUlllGlliNlllPNIflilCNGDAI VA BIEN BliNGlY GIA HOIDDAI:
MOT GD VAN OE CAN XEM XET CHD VIET NAM
^ r / i S . Nguyin Phuc Canh va nhdm tac gia Pham Minh Quang Nguyen Minh Tri, Vu Ngoc Minh, Tran TN Thuy Linh, Vo Trgng Hau *
thi CO tdi 6 ty la FPI (trong do 60-70%
ia 6au tu vao thi trUdng trai piii^u), FPI doi dao da giup 6n djnii ty gid, tang dl/ tru', cai thign can can thanh toan va tac d6ng manh ti3i thj triJdng chiing khodn, tuy nhien, viec ngu6n von vao nhieu trong khi hieu qua sif dung v6n thap se gay ra tinh trang bong bong tai san, b€n canh do, la bien dpng tren thj triiflng chifng khoan va ca bien dgng trong ty gia, dac bi§t trong giai doan Xciy ra khung hoang tai chinh tocin cau nam 2008 gay ra hien tiidng rOt von manh cua FPI khSng chi 6 Viet Nam va cac ni/flc tren the gidi.
Giai doan 2008 - 2013, cuOc khOng
homing t^i chinh to^n cau anh hL/dng tjgu ci,lc den hfi thong ti§n te ciia cdc ngan hang hdng dau th^ gidi vd dan d^n si^ phd sdn cua hang loat cdc ngan hdng va tap dodn kinh te, va Vifit Nam cung khong phdi la ngoai le. Cung vdi do, sau mdt thdi gian phat trien qua ndng, thj triidng chulng khodn Viet Nam bat ddu co dau hieu suy giam, cong gOp ca hai yeu to do da Idm cho cac nha dau tii niidc ngodi thu hep ddu tu, thodi von d mgt so quy dau W va cac quy dau tU cung thu hep hoat ddng dau tif cua minh d^n den tinh trang biln ddng t^ gid manh cua Viet Nam trong thdi gian qua (xem Bieu dfi 2).
Bieu do 1: T6ng san ph^m qufic nfii hang ndm (GDP)
160,000 140,000 Q 120,000 3 100,000 S. so.ooo
•
40,000 20,000
TSng san pbliin qu6c nfi Vift Nam
• • 1 • I 1 1 1
. • 1 1 I I
^ • • l l l l l l
• l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 M m
Nguon- World Development Indicators (2014) Bieu do 2 Ty gia hoi doai danh nghla Viet Nam giai doan 2001-2013
Ty gii USD/VND danh nghia
? 15000 - g 10000 -
*^ 5000 -
__—• "
2001 2002 2003 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 N b n
Nguon: World Development Indicators (2014)
- NHUNG VAN DE KINH TE Vl MO ^ ^ I
Bieu do 3. GDP dau ngudi, ty le that nghiep v i lam phat Viet Nam giai doan 2002-2013 Kinh ti Vl rao Vift Nam giai doan 2002 - 2013
^-^+4^ AdiJi
^"GDPdauoglAitBieuVND) ^ ^ T
Nhu vay, lieu FPI co dnh hiidng den ty gid hoi doai cung nhu cdc y l u to khac trong nen kinh te Viet Nam trong gdn 15 nam qua hay khong? Dong thdi, chinh sdch phu hgp de Ung phd vdi ddng von nay cho Viet Nam ia gi? Bai viet nay di vao tra Idi hai cdu hdi trin thdng qua phdn tich dii lieu cua Viet Nam vd bdi hoc cua cac qudc gia tren M gidi. Phan tiep theo trinh bay chi tiet v§ kinh te Viet Nam, FPi va ty gia trong gan 15 nam qua.
2. Kinh te vi md the gldl, Viet Nam, ddng vdn ffau ti/ gidn tidp va ty gia hdi doai
2.1. Dien bien IcinhtdvTmd Sau khung hodng Dot-com vd cudc tSn cdng khung bo vao tda thap ddi tai New York ndm 2001, My dua ra nhUng chinh sach kinh te khac nhau d^ cai thien tinh hinh bang each md rong chinh sach tiln t€ khi cdt giam lai suat lien tuc td 6,5% xu6ng cdn 1,75%
trong giai doan 2000 - 2005 (Walker 2015). Chinh sach ti^n tfi md rgng vdi mile Idi suat thap k6o ddi dan den
Nguon: ADB (2014) bong bdng bat dgng san cua My, tuy nhien, vdi viec Idi sudt thay doi bat ngd nhQng nam 2007, 2008 da thay doi tinh hinh kinh te. Gia nha dat My bdt dau giam cljng vdi tien lai vay de dau tu nha dat qua Idn nen bong bdng bdt dgng san xi hdi, ty le vd nd cua ngUdi vay tang I6n, ddc bigt la nhUng ngUdi vay dudi tieu chuan thudng xuyen cl trong tinh trang khd khan tai chinh do thu nhdp cua ngudi ddn khdng du de trang trdi mUc Idi sudt tdng trd lai gay ra khung hodng tdi chinh todn cau nam 2008. SU lan tda tii bong bdng bat dOng sdn "vd" da khien cho hang loat thg ch^ tdi chinh My rdi vdo cdnh phd sdn nhu Lehman Brothers, Newf Centure Financial Corp... Nhieu ngdn hang vato chUc khac bj budc phai ban lai hay bj chinh phii My tiep quan nhu Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Indy Mac, Bear Steam, Washington Mututal Inc, Wachovia. NhQng thiet hai ma khung hodng tin dung dudi chuin cua My khdng nhQng hien dien trUc ti^p den kinh te My ma cdn anh hUdng todn the gidi, bao gdm cd Viet Nam.
Mac du tdng san IUdng binh quan dau ngUdi tai Viet Nam van cho thay sd tang trifdng on dinh trong 15 nam gan day nhUng ty le that nghigp vd lam phdt lai bj dnh hUdng tieu cUc trong giai doan 2008 - 2013. Ty le that nghiep cd nildc cung vdi chi s6 lam phdt tang manh lan lUdt xap xi 2,9% vd 23% ndm 2008 Id hdu qud khung hoang toan cau tai Viet Nam.
(Bleu do 3)
Ngodi ra, khung hodng tdi chinh todn cau 2008 cdn Idm thi trUdng tdi chinh todn cau mat khoang 17.000 ty USD khi thi trUdng khap thd gidi sut giam manh trong nam 2008, phd bien tQ 40% den 60%. Tuy thj trUdng tai chinh Viet Nam chQa thdt sU gia nhdp sdu vdo thj trUdng tai chinh qudc te, nhUng Viet Nam van phdi gdnh chju nhQng hau qud gidn tiep thdng qua sQ tmyen dan tU nhQng ddng vdn dau tQ tu My va cac qudc gia khung hoang vao thj trudng Viet Nam. Vdi ddng vdn dau tu gidn tiep vao Viet Nam khoang 306 trieu USD trong ndm 2005, mdt trong nhQng con sd idn trong giai doan nay, den nam 2008, ddng vdn dao chieu khi giam 107 trieu USD nen tao ra mdt sd tac ddng quan trong:
Diu tien, khi ddng vdn chay vao vd ra khdi Viet Nam qud Idn da Idm tang vd gidm cung ngoai te Idn va nhanh chdng dan den bdt on trong ty gid USD/VND. De han che anh hUdng ndy, Ngan hdng Nha nudc Vigt Nam (NHNN) phdi can thiep vao thi trUdng ngoai hdi hoac phd gid VND d^ giam
TAPCHINGANHANG I so 2J I THANG 12/2015 Q
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inh hudng cua IUdng von vio ra tao ra bit Sn tren thi trudng ngoai hoi.
Thi? hai, do ddng von tang qui nhanh trong giai doan trudc 2008 so vdi trudc dd nen bong bdng tai sin d Viit Nam cung dan hinh thinh trong giai doan 2006 - 2008 do ddng von vio qui Idn.
Cuoi cung, do FPI v i o 6 at cd the se tao dieu kien cho khung hoing xay ra do nhOng lan dao chieu nranh tU thj trudng tien te gay i p luc idn ien ty g i i , niu chinh phu khdng c6 chinh sich phu hdp s i tao ra nguy cd bl diu cd ddng tiin. De hiiu ro hdn tinh hinh biin ddng cua ddng v6n diu tu giin tiep tai Viit Nam trong thdi gian qua, phan tiip theo trinh biy van d i nay.
2.2. Dong von dau tU giin tiep TU nhUng nam 2000, ciing vdi qua trinh cai each kinh t i , bin thin cac doanh nghiip VISt Nam ciing phil tu tien hinh cal cich, dong thdi tien hanh CO phan hoi nham gia tang nang lUc va hieu q u i canh tranh khi h i i nhap qudc t i . C6 phan hoa phii dl ddi vdi viic hinh thinh cac thi trudng vdn, cac kenh huy ddng vdn, m i trong dd hat nhan ia thi trudng chUng khoan. Cac mdi quan h i kinh te gia tang, ddng vdn iUu chuyen nhanh se gop phin tao ra hieu Ung tdt ddi vdi boat dOng cija cic doanh nghiip. Vi vay, viec tham gia cua cic nha dau tU FPI s i cd tic ding manh me den thi trudng t i l chlnh, giup cho thi trudng t i i chinh minh bach v i hoat dong hiiu qua hdn, xic lip gii trj thj trudng cua cic c6 phlSu niem yet chinh xic, glim thieu nhiing giao dgng "phi thj trudng", gdp phin vio giii quyit mdt cich cd bin cic moi quan he kinh te nhU von, cdng nghe, v i quan iy. (Bieu dd 4)
Rd rang, FPi cua My vio Viit Nam cd su bien ddng trdng giai ddan 2001 - 2013. TU nim 2001 - 2007, FPi tang gip 10 lan tU mUc 21 trieu USD nam 2001 len 248 trieu USD v i d nam Q TAP CHi NGSN HANG I sd 24 I THANG 12O0
2007. FPI trdng giai doan nay tang len nhanh chdng bdi sU phat triin ciia kinh te Viit Nam trong glal doan niy tot, thj trudng chUng khoan trong glal doan nay ciing phit tnen vdi sd IUdng chUng khoan niim yet nhliu hdn. Ve dii han, thj trudng chUng khoan diy trien vong khien cic nhi dau tU mong mudn cd CO phiiu cila Viit Nam trong danh muc dau tu cua minh. Tuy nhien, khi cuoc khung hoing t i l chinh toin c i u nam 2008 xiy ra d i l i m giim manh ddng vdn FPI vao Viit Nam trong cung nam. Trong glal doan 2001 - 2008, Viet Nam cd nhOng thinh cdng nhat djnh trong viec thu hut FPi, nhUng mdt thUc te phii nhin nhin rang, Viit Nam la quoc gia thu hut FPI thap nhat tU iVIy trong khu vuc Odng Nam A, con so van chl dUng lai d v i i chgc hoac vii trim triiu USD glal doan til 2001 - 2008, nguyen nhan chu y i u giy ra van de niy la chinh sach kinh te vi md chua phu hdp, thj trudng t i l chinh cdn thieu minh bach din din niem tin ciia nhi diu tu ngoai thap. Sau nim 2008 giim manh, FPi din dUdc phuc hoi v i tao budc d i tang trudng trong giai doan tU nam 2009 trd di. Chi trong vdng 5 nam til 2009 den 2013, FPi tU My v i d Viit Nam tang gan 2 ty USD so vdi nam 2008, dIeu niy chUng td nin kinh te din dUdc phuc hil sau khung Bleu do 4: Ddng vdn diu tu gian tiep tU
hoang, i i y lai duoc niim tin cua nhi dau tu nudc ngoii.
Kit qua trin cd the col dd l i thinh cdng cua Viit Nam trcng giai doan khung kinh te khi FPi chi giam trcng nam 2008 sau dd khdi phgc v i tang manh hdn sd vdi nhQng nim trUdc.
Nguyen nhin nguin von diu tu giin tlip cao nhu viy l i nhd mdi trudng dau tu vl md ngay cang thdng thding on djnh, c i c chlnh sich, djnh che tii chinh tap trung thu hut vdn cho phit trien dat nUdc, die biit khi Viit Nam gia nhap WTO phal md cila nhieu hdn cho cic ddng von. Ben canh d i , nguyin nhan quan trgng nUa l i cic thi trudng khac trin t h i gidi suy glim nghiem trong, trong khi dd Viet Nam cd sU hil phuc, do dd thu hut dUdc FPI vio Viet Nam.
Vdi thuc trang trin va so vdi tiem nang qudc gia khi m i tdc dd ting trudng kinh te cdn cao va nn djnh so vdi cic qudc gia khac tren the gidi nhu hien nay thi con so diu tU trin i i chua t h i hiin hit dUdc nOI lUc cua Viit Nam. Mat khac, nhflng con sd trin chua thit su diy du v i dau tU giin tiip vl mUc dp kiem soat thi trudng phi tip trung cdn chua cao, diy cung l i thj trudng day tiem nang ma cic nhi dau tu trong v i ngoii nUdc quan tam.
Bin canh thanh tUu dat dUdc trong My vao Viet Nam giai doan 2001-2013
2S0O
2000
ISOO
1000
ioo 2
Dong v6n dSu tu gian tiSp tu
-
^°* 2« 2«
. :: : ; 1 1 1
Bl 2002 3003 2004 2005 2006 2007
My v4o Vi^t Nam
2093 18
IIMI 1
i 1 1
• I I I
]
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nguon: l/vlF eLibrary Data
mot thdi gian ngan nhU v i y thi van cdn rat nhieu han c h i trong viic thu hut FPI m i Viet Nam phii xem xit.
Viit Nam van chUa thUc sU kiim soat dUdc ngu6n vdn nay, thuc chat cac giao dich dUdc thong ke tai Viet Nam chu y i u xuat phat tU c i c Sd Giao djch ChUng khdin m i chUa cd day du c i c sS iUdng giao djch khac tren thi tnJdng phi tap trung, trong khi thj trudng phi t i p trung lai la thi trudng cd tiem nang Idn. Hdn nfla, glal doan nay vdi khd khin cua c i c thj trudng khic nhu IVIy, chiu Au hay bong bdng no tai Trtjng Qudc chinh ia giai doan tdt de cac ddng vdn tim din khu vUc Odng Nam A v i cu the la Viet Nam.
Tuy rang, ddng vdn dang ky vao nhieu nhung viic giai ngin cdn r i t chim, trong dd mdt s6 quy hoat ddng chi mang tinh tham dd, do phin nhliu cic ddanh nghiip c i phan hoa chUa kiem toan va djnh g i i tin nhiim. Mdt ban c h i khic trang thu hut v i quan II FPI ia viec thj trUdng chdng khoan cdn khi non t r i , phu thudc tUdng ddi nhiiu vio cac nha dau tU nUdc ngoai, khi m i cic n h i d i u tu nudc ngoii bin ra, cac n h i dau tu trong nUdc cung dong ioat ban ra khiin thi trudng m i t diim iiin tuc va thj trudng tang diem cung cd sU tham gia cua nha d i u tU nudc ngoai. Do dd, lai lam cho nen kinh te iam vao tinh trang bi ddng, diiu nay lam tang riii ro cho nha dau tU n i l <^a va c i nen kinh t i , trong dd FPi v i d v i ra s i inh hudng trUc tiep den ty gia USD/VND.
2.3. Bien ding t i gia hoi loai trong then gian qua
Ddi vdi Viit Nam, ty g i i hdi doai cd sU bien ddng trong giai doan 2001 - 2013, die biit giai doan khiUng hoang t i i chinh toin cau nam 2008. Trong giai doan trUdc khung hoang t i l chinh toin cau 2007, Chinh phu v i NHNN Viit Nam thuc hien c i c bien phap can thiip v i o ty g i i iam cho ty gia ting tuong doi nho (khdng q u i 5%
so vdi nam trUdc dd), giup kich thich xuat khau, c i i thien tinh hinh c i n c i n thudng mai, cung co Idng tin v i o sU phuc hdi kinh te v i thu hut dau tU nudc ngoii. D i n ngiy 07/11/2006, Viet Nam chinh thdc gia nhip WTO, tao tien de cho viec md rpng thUdng mai v i diu tU, vi viy, nguon vdn dau tu vao trong nUdc tang iin manh m i , trong dd cd ddng vdn dau tU giin tiep, ddng thdi l i cU sdc do khOng hoing kinh t i nen biin ddng ty g i i tU nam 2007 trd nen phUc tap v i khd iUdng hdn giai doan trudc (Bleu dd 5).
Trong giai doan khung hoang t i l chinh toin c i u , nin kinh t i Viit Nam cung bl anh hudng manh nen t i c ddng den bien dgng ty g l i hdi doai duoc the hien rd ret. Vi vay, de on djnh thi trudng ngoai hdi trong nudc theo, ngiy 07/11/2008, NHNN d i dieu chinh bien do ty gia USD/VND tU ±2% l i n mUc
±3%, ddng thdi tich cUc b i n ngoai te cd chon ioc nham hd trd thanh khoin cho thj trudng nham giam inh hudng cUa khung hoang m i die biit la do FPi rut vdn manh trong nam 2008 nhU
d i phan tich d tren. Odng thdi, tif ngiy 24/03/2009, NHNN da diiu chinh biin do ty g i i tU ±3% len ± 5 % v i chii yeu sU dung biin phip tang tj' g i i niim yet, giim bien dd dad ddng khi tinh hinh ngoai t i cang thang v i chu dong dieu chinh biin do m i khong thdng bio trudc de dieu hinh ty g i i phu hdp vdi cung c i u tren thi trUdng ngoai t i Viit Nam.
Din nam 2010, NHNN dieu chinh ty g i i mua - ban ngoai t i cua cac to chile tin dung tang thim 5,52%
ddng thdi thuc hien c i c biin phap on fflnh thi trudng ngoai te v i cdn quy i^nh trin lai suit tien gUi USD cua to chUc kinh te bang 1%/nim. Den nam 2011, USD/VND tang manh, nin ngay 11/02/2011, lan dau tien trong lich sCl, NHNN cd quyet dinh ting t j gia i i n den mdc 9,3% dl cdng vdi viec siet biin do tu +/-3% xudng cdn + / - 1 % . Cic quyit dlnh niy cd inh hudng rat idn den thj trUdng va cac yeu td thudc nen kinh t i . Trong dd, die biit i i c i c thj trudng nhU thi trUdng chUng khoan, hoat ding ngin hing v i niim tin cua ngudi dan vao VND. Tuy vay, den nam 2012 va 2013 ty g l i USD/VND d i on dlnh khi chi thay doi 0% va 1 % do cac y i u tS VI md on djnh v i FPi vio cung dn dinh hdn trong glal doan trUdc.
De xem xet ro moi quan h i gifla FPI v i ty g i i hdi doil d c i c qudc gia trin the gldl, die biet tai c i c qudc gia dang phat triin nhu Viet Nam nham dUa ra cic glil phip phu hdp cho Viet Nam, phan tiep theo trinh biy ly thuyet v i
r X/ietcombank
Chung niem t i n vung tirong lai
TAPCHiNGAN HANG | SO 24 | THANG 12/2015 A
iNHONGVANOEKINHTEViMO
cdc bang chUng thUc nghiem v^ FPI vd t / gid hoi doai.
3. Ly thuyet va kinh nghiem qudn ly FPI tai mgt sd nU6c tren the gidi
3.1. Mdi quan he giifa FPI va t^ gid hdi doai
Vdo nam 2012, nghien cUu thUc nghiem cua Iblcioglu (2012) tai Tho NhT Ky da chi ra rang, ty gid hdi doai danh nghia vd FPI cd quan he nhan qud, dieu ndy cho thay cd hai yeu td tren cd quan he trong ngan han, ddng thdi ty gia hdi dodi cd phan Ung ngUdc chieu vdi FPI. Tuy nhien, 1 nam sau dd, theo Gumus, Dum & Gungor (2013) thi mdi quan he nay chi mang tinh mdt chi^u, vi cdc ddng vdn nay gay dp lUc Ign ty gid hdi doai danh nghia nen bien dOng trong ddng vdn dau tU gidn tiep se lam thay doi ty gid hdi doai danh nghla. Mac khde, tdc ddng nay cd xu hudng gia tang trong thdi ky hien nay vd nd cd the trd nen xau hdn trong thdi ky khung hodng, dac biet ddi vdi cdc nin kinh td nhd.
Mgt nghien cUu khde cua Combes, Kinda & Plane (2012) da chi ra rang, tdc ddng cua cac ddng vdn vd sU bidn ddi t!/ gid hdi dodi thUc d cdc qudc gia dang phdt trien dUdc xem xet d 2 khia canh: thO nhit, ty gia hdi dodi thUc cd th^ chju dnh hUdng khde nhau tiJy thudc vao dac diem cua ddng vdn; M ha/, chinh sdch ty gia khde nhau cd th^
Idm thay d6i tac ddng cua ddng vdn len ty gid hdi dodi thUc. Nghia Id, mdi quan h& gifla ty gia hdi dodi thUc vd ddng vdn cdn phu thudc vdo vide dp dyng chinh sdch ty gid. SU bidn ddng ty gia dam bdo rang chinh sdch tien t?
ddc lap vdi ddng vdn. Them vao do, chinh sach ty gia hdi doai linh hoat khdng khuyen khich dau cd trong ngan han vd gidm thieu rui ro'cua he thdng tdi chinh, nhUng khi ddng vdn thay doi se cd dnh hUdng Idn ddn thay ddi trong ty gid hdi dodi thUc. Khi dp dung chinh
Q TAP CHi NGAN HANG | SO 24 | THANG 12/2015
Bieu do 5: Bien ddng ty gia Viet Nam giai doan 2001 - 2013 Ty le thay d6i Irong ty gii USD/VND
NguSn: Tfnh toan tUsolieu MF eLibrary Data sach ty gid linh hoat, sU tdng len cila dp dung cd che ty gid khd linh hoat ty gid hdi dodi thUc Id do su tang cua
ty gid hdi dodi danh nghia. Nhung khi dp dung chinh sach ty gia cd dinh, ty gia tang la do lam phdt bdi cung tiln tang, khi ty gid hdi dodi tang len Idm gidm gia tn ddng noi te, til do tgo tdm ly e d6 cho nha dau tU mudn dau tu vdo thj trudng nUdc dd do gid tn tai sdn dau tu bi gidm. Miic tdng nay cd the dan den mdt sU suy giam dot ngdt trong ddng vdn tao ra khd khan cho vi§c quan ly kinh td vi mo. Dien hinh la sU bung no tai chinh vdo cdc nUdc dang phdt trien d thdp ky trudc, d?c biet la ve ddng vdn, dd t^o nen cdc
"van de ve chuydn giao"1. Sau cung, nhdm tdc gid cung dong quan di^m cho rang, cdc ddng vdn dau tU cdng vd ddng vdn tu nhdn cd mdi lien he vdi sU tang len cua ty gia hdi dodi thUc.
Phdn tich sdu hdn, dnh hudng nay tiiy thudc vao tUng thanh phan khac nhau trong ddng vdn. Trong dd, ddng vdn ddu tu gidn tiep ed tdc dOng lam tang ty gid Idn nhat, theo sau dd Id ddng vdn dau tu trUc tiep. Qua dd, chuydn giao tu nhdn cd the giiip qudc gia bd dap dUdc sU suy gidm thUc te ciia ty gid hdi dodi trong thdi ky kinh te khd khan. Ddng thdi, cdc tdc gid cung nhan thay rang, de ngan chdn sU gia tang cua ty gid hdi dodi danh nghia, cdc Chinh phu cd the can thidp thdng qua thi trudng ngoai hdi nhung ho ddi mdt vdi khd nang can thidp vi sd du trfl ngoai hdi khdng du Idn, do do, cdc bign phdp ndy khdng hieu qua. Vi vdy.
se giup phong ngUa sU gia tang trong ty gid do ddng vdn va ngan chdn suy giam trong canh tranh.
SU bien ddng cua ty gid hdi dodi vd ddng vdn ddu tU gidn tiep nude ngodi cung dUdc phdt hien la cd mdi tUdng tdc vdi nhau thdng qua nghi6n cilu ciia Kodongo & Ojah (2012), hai tdc gid tien hdnh nghidn cilu thUc nghiem dUa tren dU lieu thdng tif 1/1997 den 12/2009 d 4 nudc Chau Phi (Ai Cap, Morocco, Nigeria vd Nam Phi), ket qud ehi ra rang, gifla ty gid vd ddng vdn dau tU gidn tiep cd mdi quan tie ngUdc chieu tai Morocco vd Ai Cap, tuy nhien, mdi tUdng quan ndy d Nam Phi vd Nigeria la ciing chiiu. Mdt sif tdng Ign ve ddng USD gdy ra tac ddng eOng chieu Idm cho ddng vdn tang Ign.
Tai thi trUdng vdn Nam Phi, cdc quyet djnh dau tU gidn tidp cua nhd ddu ta phu thudc chu ydu vdo sif bien d6i cua ty gid hdi doai.
TUdng tU, ddng vdn thuan cd moi quan he ciing chieu vdi sUtang l&n cOa gid tri ddng ngoai te theo nghiSn cflu ciia Hau & Rey (2006), md hinh sil dung dfl lidu theo ngay, theo thdng vd theo quy d 17 qudc gia OECD vd My.
Cac nha dau tU qudc te chii ydu quan tdm ddn sU bien doi ciia ty gid, m6i tUdng quan gifla che dd ty gid vd Idi nhudn tif chdng khodn. Mdt khde, mfii quan he ngUdc chieu giOa Idi nhudn tif chenh lech ty gid va idi nhuan tfl thi trUdng chflng khodn thu hiit cdc nhd dau tu hdn. Vi vdy, rd rdng quydt djnh
dau tu gidn tidp phu thudc vao su bien ddng ciia ty gid. Trong khi dd, su khde biet ve gid tri gifla thi trUdng chiing khoan trong va ngoai nUdc lam cho vide ddu tu gidn tiep trd v l trang thdi can bang, sif dich chuyen cdc ddng vdn Idm cho cung ngoai te trong nUdc bien ddng, dieu ndy gdy nen bidn ddng tygid.
3.2. Kinh nghiem cua cac nUdc tren thd gidi
Tren thd gidi, nhieu qudc gia khi ddi mat vdi sU thay ddi trong ddng vdn gidn tiep nUdc ngodi dd cd nhieu Ifla chon chinh sdch khde nhau. Vdi Tho Nhi Ky, mot qudc gia dang phdt tri^n nhu Viet Nam, dUa theo dieu khodn thudc hiep dinh IMF (22/03/2007) dd loai bd che do ki^m sodt ty gid de chinh thdc dp dung he thdng ty gid thd ndi tU ngdy 22/02/2008. Theo do, nham de xudt ehinh sdch phii hdp hdn de thu hut IUdng Idn FPI tU nUdc ngoai tU sau su kien ngdy 22/02/2008, iblcioglu (2012) da tien hanh ki^m tra su tUdng quan gifla rui ro ty gia vd bidn dong ddng vdn vd ket ludn rang, mdt t dao ddng cho dii nhd ciia mOt trong hai yeu td FPI vd ty gid deu gdy ra tdn that nghiem trong cho nen kmh te Thd NhT Ky, vi vdy, cdc nhd Idm chinh sdch can phdi can trong ma khdng ndn sidt chat ty gid nhU trUdc kia, md phdi d^
ty gid thd ndi theo eung cdu thi trudng, cung Id cdch thu hiit cdc nhd ddu tu J thich "riii ro" rdt vdn vao Thd NhT Ky.
I Dong quan di^m vdi dieu dd. Combes, I Kinda & Plane (2012) cung da thUc
hien Id^m nghiem sU tifdng tac ciia ty gid va ddng vdn dau tU gian tiep tren cdc qudc gia dang phat trien vd nit ra kdt luan rang, vipc thd ndi ty gid Id hodn todn phu hdp.
d cac qudc gia mdi ndi d chau My la-tinh vd chau A, Yang vd cdng sU (2013) cdn bo sung them vai trd cua oil ro trong thi trudng vdn vd chat IUdng thdng tin Id het sifc quan trong khi mdt nhd dau tu mudn tim kiem Idi nhudn, cdc tdc gia cdn chi ra rang, de can thiep true tidp vdo tinh hinh kinh te, vai trd ngUdi qudn li cdn quan tdm nhidu hdn trong kiem sodt vdn ddc biet Id vai trd ciia ngan hdng trung Udng cac qudc gia. Hieu dUdc dieu dd, nhdm nghien cdu Yang, Xiong &
Ze (2013) cung da dUa ra nhflng bien phdp thiet thuc nham nang cao hieu qua kiem sodt ddng von dau tU va gifl dn djnh ddng vdn ndy, trong dd, viec hoach dinh rd rdng, minh bach cdng tdc kiem sodt vdn ciia cd quan nhd nudc dia phUdng ciing vdi ndng eao chat IUdng thdng tin kinh td se la quan trong nhat. TrUdc dd, Athukorala &
Rajapatirana (2003) cung nghien cflu mdi quan he gifla ty gid hdi dodi thUc vd ddng vdn rdng ehdy vdo 14 qudc gia mdi ndi d chdu A vd My la-tinh giai doan 1985 - 2000. Theo dd, do bien ddng ty gia hdi dodi anh hUdng khdng ddng ke len ddng vdn vdo tai cdc qudc gia chdu A, mac du cdc nUde nay da dp dung nhieu chinh sdch thu hut.
Theo ket qua nghien cUu thi cdc qudc gia chdu A nao md sif dung nhilu cdc
giao dich tdi chinh thi se gidm thieu difdc dp lijc tfl sii tang len ciia ty gid len ddng vdn.
Ve xu hUdng dau tu tfl My vdo cdc nudc Canada, Phdp, Oflc, Nhdt Bdn, Thuy Si vd Anh, Eun & Resnick (1988) da cho thay bien ddng ty gid hdi dodi Id yeu td chu ydu dnh hudng xau ddn hieu suat cua dau tu gidn tiep nUdc ngodi. Bdi nghien cflu chi ra rang, bien dOng ty gid hdi dodi Idm cho dau tu nudc ngodi nhilu rDi ro hdn, vd ddng thdi, Idm tram trong them nguy cd du todn, tif dd Idm mat Idi nhudn tif sU da dang hda qude t d Vi vay, cdc nhd lap chinh sdch cdn phai kiem sodt bien ddng ty gia hdi dodi mot each hieu qud thdng qua cdc hdp ddng ki han.
Vdo nam 2015, nhdm nghien cUu Al-Abri & Baghestani (2015) ddtim ra anh hudng cua dau tU nUdc ngodi len su bien dOng ty gid hdi dodi tai 8 qudc gia phdt trien cua chdu A trong giai doan 1980 - 2011. Bdi nghien cflu cho thay, ty gid bidn ddng eang Idn se gdy anh hudng Idn Ign tang trudng kinh td, su djch chuyen ddng vdn vd cdc giao dich thUdng mai qudc te. Ddng vdn ddu tu nUdc ngodi cdng nhieu se lam gidm bien ddng cua ty gid hdi doai tai Trung Qudc, An Od, Malaysia, Singapore vd Han Qudc trong khi dieu ndy Id ngUde lai d Indonesia, Philippines, Thdi Lan.
Viec nghien cflu nay se giiip cdc qudc gia dUa ra mot khung chinh sdch phD hdp nham cai thien cac chinh sdch kmh te vT md nham khai thdc cac Idi the de cd the gidm thieu riii ro lien kdt
TAP CHi NGAN HANG | SD24 | THANG 1^/2015 0
^ N H Q N G VAN fli KINH TEViMfi
Vdi Cdc loai hinh ddu tu nUdc ngoai.
Mdt khia canh ddng chu y, nhdm nghien cflu sif dung cdc bien phdp chi tidt cOa ddu tu nudc ngodi, bao gdm cd ddu tu trUc tiep nUdc ngodi. vdn chii sd hOu danh muc dau tU nUdc ngodi vd nd nUdc ngodi, ddng thdi tiep tuc kiem tra cdc hidu ilng trdn bidn ddng ty gid hdi dodi thUc nhu mdc do phdt trien tai chinh, chinh sdch tdi chinh, bien ddng lam phat (nhu Id mot sU dai dien cho dn dinh kinh te vT md va chat IUdng the chd), mUc du trfl tai san nUdc ngodi chinh thflc, vd chinh sdch tien te. Ket qua Udc lUdng cua nhdm dUa ra nhflng phdt hidn quan trong ddi vdi hai nhdm nfldc. Nhflng phdt hien ndy se giup cung cap mot khudn kho chinh sdch nham cdi thien cd v l chinh sdch kinh td vT md vd thu xdp tai chinh de khai tiiac Idi nhudn, trong khi giam thi^u nhflng nii ro ket hdp vdi cdc loai khac nhau ciia dau tu nude ngodi.
Nhin Chung, nhdm tac gid due kdt dU0c ba bdi hoc kinh nghiim nhu sau;
+ Khdng nin sidt chat t j gid nhU trude kia, thuc hien tha ndi ty gid theo cung cau thi trUdng;
+ Ndng eao chdt IUdng thdng tin, rd rdng, minh bach chinh sdch kinh td;
+ Kiem sodt nil ro ty gia thdng qua cdc hdp loai hdp ddng ki han.
4. Kdt luan va mpt sd gdi y chinh sdch
4.1. Kdt luan
Theo sd lieu thUc te, trong giai doan tfl 2000 - 2013, ty gid hdi dodi ciia Vilt Nam lien tuc bidn ddng, xu hUdng bidn ddng cho thay ty gid tang, ddc biet trong cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh todn cau ndm 2008. Ve ddng vdn dau tu gian tidp thi \il nam 2001 - 2007.
FPI vdo Vilt Nam tang manh, nhung khdng lau sau dd, khiing hodng kinh te da Idm cho ddng FPI gidm manh trong ndm 2008. Tuy nhien, FPI ddn duoc phuc hdi vd tao bUdc da tang trUdng
Q TAP CHI NGAN HANG | SO 24 | THANG 12/2015
vdo khu vUc trong giai doan tfl nam 2009 trd di. Nguyen nhdn ngudn vdn dau tu gidn tiep cao nhU vdy Id nhd mdi tnidng dau ti/ vi md ngay cang thdng thodng, on ^ n h , cdc chinh sdch, dinh che tdi chinh tdp tiung thu hut vdn cho phdt tiien ddt nudc, dieu ndy dd lam eho mdi trUdng dau tU tai nUdc ta cdng hap dan hdn.
Tuy nhiin, khi FPI bien ddng dd tao ra nhieu dp lUc vd lam ty gid USD/VND bien ddng rat manh trong giai doan 2008 - 2012, dac bigt trong nam 2008 vd 2009, dieu ndy dat ra nhu cau can thidt phdi cd ehinh sdch ddi phd vdi dnh hudng ciia ddng vdn nay len ty gia vd bien ddng vT md khde cho Viet Nam.
Thdng qua cac nghien cflu thuc nghiem tai cdc qudc gia dang phat trien tren thd gidi trong thdi gian gan ddy cho thdy hdu hdt cdc qudc gia deu cd mdi tUdng quan gifla FPI vd ty gid hdi dodi, ti'ong dd hau hdt cdc bang chflng deu chi^g minh rang, FPI cd tdc dong ddn ty gid vd nhieu qudc gia lua chgn biln phdp ddi phd la ndi Idng ty gid, ddng tiidi minh bach thdng tin dac bilt ti'ln thi trfldng chUng khoan de gifl dn dinh FPI. Dfla trdn ket qud dd, nhdm nghiin cflu de xuat mdt sd gdi y chinh sdch cho Viet Nam.
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deu mong mu6n Sm la&ti cic nhA dau tn c/uen li^
nudc ngoM. tranh tfnj tfiu /ii/f ngu6n v6n dau bt
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4.2. Gdi y chinh sdch Trong bdi cdnh Viet Nam dang thi/c hien tdi cd cau n i n kinh te vd tdi cau tnic ttii trfldng chflng khodn, thu hut ngudn vdn FPI, thdng qua cdc kdt qud nghidn cflu v l cdc nhdn td dnh hudng ddn ddng vdn ddu tu gidn tilp, mflt sd gidi phdp cd the dUdc d l xuattiii^c hien nham giOp thu hut vd gifl dn ffinh FPI nhu sau:
Thd nfiat, gidm thi^u tdi da su bidn ddng cua ty gid hdi dodi, trdnh gdy dnh hudng tilu cifc len hoat dong thu hut vdn ddu tfl. NHNN cd t h i can thiep vdo thi trfldng ngoai hdi d^ on dinh ty gid. Tuy nhiin, cdn ddm bao ngudn life manh me v l dfl trfl ngoai hdi ciia qudc gia, trdnh nguy cd khiing hodng tiln te xdy ra. TU ndm 2012 ddn nay, tinh hinh kinh td the gidi c6 ddu hilu hdi phuc vd tdng tiiidng 6t\
dinh nin ty gid dUde duy tri on dinh, NHNN Vilt Nam dd cam ket phd gid VND khdng qud 2% moi nam, viec ty gid tang l i n Idm cho hang hda Viet Nam tai cdc thi tivdng nUdc ngodi se re hdn ddng nghTa vdi cd hdi xuat khdu cao len, xudt khau tang Idm cho tii^
hut ttifldng mai gidm, nin kinh td tang tiUdng tdt hdn. Tuy nhiin, viec tang ty gid ddi khi vUdt ngodi mong mudn ciia Chinh phu vd NHNN, nguyin nhdn la do chiu nhilu dnh hfldng tU cdc
dilu kien kinh td b i n ngoai. Oi^n hinh trong nam 2015, sfl kien Trung Qudc phd gid ddng Nhan ddn te khidn cho ty gia USDA/ND cung phdi dUdc dieu chinh tang 3%, bien dp ty gia dfldc ndi 2 lan trong vdng 1 tuan. Viec cam ket bidn dong ty gid tang khdng vfldt qua 2%/ndm cua NHNN Vilt Nam mdt mdt giiip thuc day n i n kinh te trong nUde phat trien nhung mat khac lai tao tdm ly e de cho nhflng nha ddu tfl mudn ddu tfl vdo thi trUdng trong nfldc do gid trj tai sdn dau tU bi gidm tfl viec tang ty gid. Vi vdy, cdn cd sU kdt hop hdi hda gifla cac ehinh sdch tiJ' gid nham thu hiit tdi da cdc ddng vdn ddu tu vdo ma van dam bdo cdc mue tieu phdt trien kinh td - xd hdi da d l ra.
ThO ba/, theo Thdng tfl 05/2014/
TT-NHNN ve vile hfldng ddn md va sfl dung tdi khoan vdn dau tfl gidn tiep de thuc hien hoat ddng FPI tai Viet Nam dp dung cho ngudi nude ngodi khdng cu tru tai Viet Nam thi moi hoat dong ddu tfl gidn tiep cda nha ddu tu nude ngodi tai Viet Nam phdi dfldc thflc hien bdng ddng Vilt Nam vd sd dU tren tdi khodn vdn ddu tu gian tiep cua nhd ddu tu nudc ngodi khdng dUde chuyen sang tiln giii cd ky han vd tiln gUi tidt ki^m tai td chflc tin dung, chi nhdnh ngan hang nfldc ngodi. Mac dii muc dich chinh Id bdo ve thi trUdng Viet Nam khi cd nhiing cu sdc kinh td xdy ra khidn cdc nhd dau tfl thoai vdn hdng loat. Tuy nhiin v l Idu ddi, ndu Chinh phu mudn md rdng thi trudng vdn thi nin ndi Idng nhflng quy dinh ndy dd thu hot nhd dau tu nudc ngodi bang cdch c6 the de ddng tien d dang ngoai t l nhUng bat budc khi giao djch phdi thuc hien giao djch bang VND. Ben canh do, trflde day Chinh phii quy dinh nhd ddu tu nude ngodi ehi dUdc nam gifl tdi da 49% cd phdn eua eflng ty ed phan dai chiing nham han chd quyin thau tdm ciia nhd ddu tfl. Tuy nhiin, mdi ddy, ngdy 26/6/2015, Chinh phii
vfla ban hdnh Nghi dinh sd 60/2015/
ND-CP sCia ddi, bd sung mdt sd dieu ciia Nghi dinh sd 58/2012/ND-CP vdi nhilu ndi dung sfla ddi, bo sung trong dd cd 2 diem ddng luu ^ ve dau tfl gidn tidp. Mdt /a, ndi ty le sd hOu tdi da cho nha dau tfl nUdc ngoai tham gia thi trudng chflng khodn Vilt Nam;
hai fd, khdng han chd nhd dau tu nUdc ngodi ddu tu vdo trdi phieu Chinh phii, trdi phidu doanh nghiep. Dieu nay cho thdy su quan tdm cOa Chinh phd theo hudng md rdng dan thj trUdng vdn thdng qua ty le sd hflu. Khdng nhflng thd, quy trinh ddu tU lai rat ddn gidn vd gdn nhU khdng cd su phdn biet ddi xfl gifla nhd dau tfl trong nfldc vd nha dau tu nfldc ngodi. Ngoai ra, viec cd nhilu vdn bdn quy dinh viec dau ti/
gian tiep cho nhd dau tU nUdc ngodi vi du nhfl Ludt Chflng khodn, Luat sifa ddi bd sung cda Ludt ChUng khodn, Ludt Dau tfl, Ludt Cac td chflc tin dung,... cd the gdy khd khan cho ho trong vi|c tidp cdn va thuc hien, tao ra tdm II chdn nan. Chinh phd nen ban hdnh mdt van bdn ludt tdng hdp nhflng quy djnh v l viOc ddu tu gidn tiep cho nhd dau tU nUdc ngoai vd dUa ra cdc hudng ddn cu the ve thu tyc dang ky vdi cdc m§u bi^u diing quy dinh, tuan thd cdc dieu kien cd bdn d^ dfldc dau tfl de de phdng vdi cdc hanh vi tilu cue, ddc biet Id rfla tien vd tdi trd khung bd thdng qua thi trfldng chflng khodn, ket hdp vdi viec lUdc giam bdt nhflng quy ^ n h khd hieu vd nhflng quy dinh han che nhu dd neu d tren. Odng thdi, quy dinh thim v l xU phat vi pham cimg cdc chd tai nghiem minh, tao su cdng bdng va blnh dang gifla cdc nhd ddu tfl trong vd ngoai nfldc.•
T A I U I U T H A M I K H A O :
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Athukorala, P-c & Rajapatirana, S 2003, 'Capital inflows and ttie real exchange
rate: a comparative study of Asia and Latin America', Ttie World Economy, vol. 26, pp, 613-37.
Brennan, M.J. & Cao, H H . 1997, 'International portfolio investment flows', Joumal of Finance, pp. 1851-80.
Chaudhry, I.S., Farooq, F, & Mushtaq, A.
2014. 'FACTORS AFFECTING PORTFOLIO INVESTfWlENT IN PAKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES ANALYSIS', Pakistan Economic and Social Review, vol 52, no. 2.
pp. 141-58.
Comt)es, J . - L , Kinda, T, & Plane, P, 2012, 'Capital flows, exchange rate flexH)ility, and the real exchange rate'. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 34, no 4, pp. 1034- 43.
Ekeocha, P.C, Ekeocha, C S . , Victor, M,
& Oduh, M.O. 2012, 'Modelling ttie long mn determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria', Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, vol 3, no. 8, pp.
194-205.
Eun, C S . & Resnick, B.G. 1988, 'Exchange rate uncertainty, forward contracts, and International portfolio selection', Joumal of Finance, pp. 197-215.
Ganbaldi, P 2002, Wtiat moves capital to transition economies?, vol. 2, International Monetary Fund.
Goldstein, I & Razin, A. 2006, 'An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment', Journal of International Economics, vol. 70, no. 1 , pp. 271-95.
Gumus, G.K., Duru, A. & Gungor, B. 2013, 'The relationship between foreign portfolio investment and macraeconomic variables', European Scientific Journal, vol. 9, no. 34.
Hau, H. & Rey, H 2006, 'Exchange rates, equity prices, and capital flows', Review of Financial Studies, vol. 19, no. 1 , pp. 273- 317.
Iblcioglu, M. 2012, The Effect of Non- residents' Portfolio Investment on Exctiange Rate: Evidence from Turkey', Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 62, pp 580-4.
Kodongo, 0. & Ojah, K. 2012, 'The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows:
Evidence from Africa's capital markets', intematlonal Review of Economics &
Finance, vol. 24, pp, 71-87.
Walker, A. 2015, 'Hoa Ky tien thodi luang nan v§ !ai suat', http://www.bbc.com/
vietnamese/t)usiness/2015/09/150917_us main_rate_dilema.
Yang, H , Xiong, Y. & Ze, Y. 2013, 'A Comparative Study of Determinants of Intematlonal Capital Flows to Asian and Latin American Emerging Counties', Procedia Computer Science, vol. 17, pp. 1258-65
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