Ngd Minh Diic. Mgt sd tdc ddng den nin kinh teAnPo...
MOT S6 TAC DONG DEN NEN KINH TE A N D O TlT Hif P DINH THU'ONG MAI TV DO ASEAN - A N DO
Ngd Minh Due*
7
rong then gian gdn ddy, quan hf thuong mgi An Dp - ASEAN ngdy cdng gia tdng,^Lanh dgo cdp cao hai ben diu tich cue thuc hifn nhOng bifn phdp di thiic dd^
quan hf Ihuang mgi An Dp - ASEAN phdt triin han nOa, cho tuang xung v&i tiim ndng cua hai phia. Cpng ddng kinh ti ASEAN (AEC) ra dai Id mgt bu&c ngodt ddnh ddu su hgi nhdp khu vuc mot cdch todn difn ciia cdc nin kinh ti Dong Nam A vd qua do si ma ra nhiiu ca hpi di thtic diiy han nOa quan hf thuong mgi ASEAN - An Dp. Bdi viit trinh bdy khdi qudt nhung npi dung chinh trong Hifp djnh thuong mpi tir do ASEAN - An i)(5 (AIFTA) vdphdn tich mpt s6 tdc dpng eda AIFTA ddi v&i nin kinh tiAn Dp.
l i i h d a : Hifp djnh thuong mgi ty do ASEAN - An B^, Cdng ddng kinh ti ASEAN, kinh ti An Dd, quan hf thuong mgi An Dp - ASEAN
L Nhihig n$i dung chinh ciia Hifp djnh Thirong mgi ty do ASEAN - An Dp (AIFTA)
Trong Chiin tranh Lgnh, An Dp dinh sy uu tifin chiin lupc ddi ngogi cho Lien Xd vi "tiiu lyc dja Nam A", do dd mdi quan hf ciia An Dp vdi cic nudc ASEAN khdng dupc chii trpng. Sau Chiin tranh L?iih, sy tan ri ciia Lifin Xd khiin tinh hinh thi gidi vi khu vye cd nhiiu biin ddi. De
•ThS., Vi*n Dja li nhin vin.
thoit khdi thi bj cd lgp ngogi giao, phit triin kinh ti, md rpng thj trudng. An Df thyc hifn chinh sich Hudng Ddng, liy ASEAN lim trung tam, tang cudng hpp tic vfi chinh trj an ninh, thiic diy quan hf thuomg mgi' Cic thanh vifin ciia ASEAN nhu Singapore vi Thii Lan di di diu trong
http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/quan-h-quc-t/3454-su- troi-day-dong-thoi-cua-trung-quoc-an-do-va-auan-he- tning-an, s\t tr5i djy ddng thdi ciia trung qudc- kn dd v i quan h^ trung-ln.
I
vifc ki Hifp dinh Thuong mgi Tu do vdi An Dp (ngiyl9/06/2005 vi 01/10/2003).
E>di vdi cic thinh vifin khic nhu Malaysia cung da ki Hifp djnh Thuong mgi Ty do vdi An Dp vio 01/07/2011. Vio 13/08/2009, An Dp vi 10 qudc gia thupe ASEAN da ky Hifp djnh Thuong mai hing hda n t o trong Hifp dinh khung vg hop tic kinh ti toan difn ASEAN An Dp. Giai dogn thyc hifn diy dii nhftng diiu khoin trong Hifp djnh Thuong mgi hing hda gifta hai bfin sg keo dii trong 14 nam tu 01/01/2010 din 31/12/2024. Vi thi, mpt thj trudng rpng ldn vdi hom 1,8 ty dan vi tdng sin phim qudc npi dgt hon 4.000 ty USD da dupc hinh thinh. Hifp dinh bao gdm ci Bing 1: Bieu thue cam ket vu dii ciia
Nghifin ciiu An Dp vi Chau A. Sd 11 - 2016 ba Enh vye gdm thuong mgi hang hda, dau tu vi dich vy.
Muc dp cam kit cit giim thui quan theo Hifp djnh Thuong mgi Ty do ASEAN
An E>d (AIFTA) nim trong khudn khd ciia Hifp djnh khung di dupc cdng bd trong danh myc sin phim tu nim 2009.
Theo dd, cd 9.027 sin phim theo difn thdng thudng se ip thui 0% theo nguyfin tic khdng phin bift ddi xu vi 1.805 sin phim dac bift thupe difn nhgy cam se ip thue 5% ciing theo nguyen tic trfin. Han nfta, nguyen tic tdi huf qudc (MFN) di ip dyng ty If thui suit nhgp khiu dinh cho nhgp khiu ciia An Dd ddi vdi cic sin phim d|lt bift se dupc biiu thi d bing 1.
myt s6 mft hang tieu d$c bift
rr
1 Danh 1 mvcD4U
thd Dau cp Ci phe Chi H^t tieu
M n
Mac
Off U D
2007 80
90
100
100
70 2009
76
86
95
95
68
- Jt- L
2010 72
82
90
90
66
Thue ini dSi AIFTA
Don Vf: %
Khong rnu^n hffn 1/1 2011
68
78
85
85
64 2012
64
74
80
80
62
2013 1 2014 60
70
75
75
60
^ 56
66
70
70
58 2015
52
62
65
65
56
2016 48
58
60
60
54
2017 44 *>
54
55
55
52 2018
40
50
50
50
'' 1 1/1/
2019 37,5
45
45
45
50
i-»l
Nff^n: mp dinh thuong mgi hdng hoa ndm trong Hifp dinh khung hpp tdc kinh ti toan di4n giOa An Dp vd cdc quoc gia Dong Nam A
Ngd Minh Diic. Mpt so tdc dong din nin kinh tiAn Dp...
Muc thue ca bin trong Hifp dinh Thuong mgi hing hoi giua ASEAN An Dp dupc tinh tgi thdi diim 01/07/2007.
Ngoii ra, cd mpt nhdm cic sin phim d^c bift gdm: dau thd, diu cp tinh chi cua An D^, ci phfi, che vi hgt tieu thupe lihdm cic sin phim dac bift. Muc thui MFM ddi vdi sin pham d$c bift se phii giim theo Id trinh d bing 1.
Cic qudc gia trong khdi ASEAN (tru Singapore) vln dang duy tri mdt danh sich cam kit giim thui theo Ip trinh dk phii hpp vdi sy thich iing ciia nin kinh ti mdi qudc gia. An Dp di vi dang duy tri 2 danh myc giim thue cho rifing Philippines vi cic nudc cdn lgi trong ASEAN, trong dd chu trpng din cic m$t hing trong khu vye ndng nghifp, dft may, ty ddng vi hda chit. Dieu niy cQng li mdt yiu td lim hgn chi mftc dp hfi nh§p kinh ti gifta hai bfin.
Cic nhdm m$t hing chinh trong Hifp djnh TTiuong mgi hing hoi gifta ASEAN An Dd dupc bio vf thdng qua cic danh sich hgn chi dudi diy: (i). Rau: ci chua, hinh, tdi, gftng, ci rdt, cii cii, dua chudt, d^u Hi Lan, dt cay, khoai tay; (ii). Hoa qui/hgnh nhfin: dua, cui dua khd, hgt diiu, cau, triu, chudi, dua, xoii, cam, nho, tio, dua hiu, du dii, qui anh dio v.v..; (iii). Gia vj: bdt dt, vani, cari, thi li, nghf, mu tgt,...;
(iv). Ngu cdc: ggo, liia mi, bip, mgch nha...; (v). Hgt cd diu/diu: hgt lanh, cii diu, do tuang... (vi). Thuy sin: ci hdi, ci ngft... (vii). Cic logi khic: cao su ty nhifin, thudc li... (viii). Dft may: khin mjt, vii
dft,...; (ix). Ty ddng: d td, xe buyt, xe tii,...; (x). Hda chit: diu lira, diesel,...
Trong trudng hpp hing hoi thudc danh myc nhgy cim cao, cic qudc gia thinh vifin ki kit Hifp djnh Thuomg mgi hing hoi gifta ASEAN An Dd (AIFTA) di thdng nhit vifc giim thui theo 3 muc dd nhgy cim ciia hing hoa. Cy thi gdm: nhdm 1: giim thui MFM xudng cdn 50%; nhdm 2: giim 50%
muc thui MFM; nhdm 3: giim 25% miic thui MFM. Bfin cgnh dd, cic bfin cdn gidi hgn vifc cit giim thui niy phii dupc hoin thinh, ip dyng vdi Indonesia, Malaysia, Thii Lan (ngiy 31/12/2018); ip dyng vdi Philippines (ngiy 31/12/2021); ip dyng vdi Cambodia vi Vift Nam (ngiy 31/12/2023).
Thoi thu|n 1$ trinh giim thui cua danh myc hing hoi nhgy cim cao niy khdng ip dyng vdi Brunei, Lio, Myanmar vi Singapore.
Hifp djnh niy cung cip mdt bifn phip bio hd di giii quyit nhftng vin di phit sinh trong quan hf xuit nhgp khiu gifta hai bfin do vifc cit giim thui suit. Khi cd nguy ca inh hudng tdi nin cdng nghifp ndi dja, vifc dinh gii bio hd nhim dinh gii hifn trgng vi tim kiim giii phip hgn chi nhftng thift hgi cho nin cdng nghifp ndi dja thdng qua cdng cy thui. Qui trinh chuyin ddi bit diu tu ngiy cd hifu lyc cua hifp djnh vi kit thiic sau 5 nim ki tft ngiy hoin thinh vifc xda bd ho§c cit giim thui suit cam kit. Mdi bfin cd quyin yfiu ciu dinh gii bio hd bit kjr thdi gian thyc hifn qui trinh niy. Vi dy, niu cd mdt vin di nio dd trong vifc nhgp khiu dau cp din din nguy ca giy thift hgi nghifim trpng tdi nfin cdng nghifp dau in trong nudc. An Dp dupc quyin yfiu
Nghien cuu An Dp vi Chau A. Sd 11 -2016 cau dinh gii bio hp sin phim diu cp d bit
ky thdi gian nio trong khoing thdi gian chuyin ddi tir 01/01/2010 din 31/12/2024.
2. Can can thirong mgi An Dp ASEAN
Tu diu nhftng nim 2000 din nay, mdi quan hf thuong mai gifta An E)p vi ASEAN da vi dang cd nhiiu sy thay ddi theo chiiu hudng tich eye. Tdng thuomg mgi song phuong ting hon 9 lin, tu 7 ty USD (nim 2000 - 2001) len tdi 65 ty USD (nim 2015 - 2016). Xuit khiu ciia An Dp sang thj trudng ASEAN ting tu 2,9 ty USD (nim 2000 2001) tdi 25,2 ty USD (nim 2015 - 2016) vi j nhgp khiu oia An Ddtu ASEAN ting tu 4,1
ty USD (nim 2000 - 2001) tdi 39,9 ty USD (nim 2015 2016). Tuy nhifin, thim hyt thuong mgi hing hoi cua An Dp - ASE/y^
ting tu 1,2 ty USD (nim 2000 - 2001) lfin tdi 14,7 ty USD (nim 2015 - 2016).
Nhin vio Bing 2, chung ta de ding thiy dupc thj phin xuit nh§p khiu cua An Dp sang thj trudng ASEAN tren tdng kim nggch xuit nhgp khiu ciia An Dp. Hinh thii dien biin ciia thj phin xuit nhgp khiu dupc thi hifn trong Hinh 1 vi Hlnh 2.
Hinh 1 vi Hinh 2 biiu thj ty trpng xuit nhjp khiu ciia An Dd vio thj trudng ASEAN trong giai dogn tu 2000 2016 mpt cich de hiiu hom. Khi nhin d gdc dp
ci giai dogn thi xu hudng xuit khiu cua An Dp sang ASEAN dang cd diu hifu giam mjc dii vln dang ting d chi sd gii trj tuyft ddi. Nim 2015, thj phin xuit khiu ciia An Dp sang ASEAN giim chi cdn 9,6% so vdi 12% ciia nim 2011. CJ chiiu ngupc lai thi xu hudng nhgp khiu cua An Dp tu thi trudng ASEAN dang ting len, tu 8,2% nim 2000 - 2001 len din 10,5% nim 2015-2016.
Tuy nhifin, chiing ta cQng nfin xem xet gia trj kim nggch xuit nhjp khiu cua An Dp sang thj trudng ASEAN chiim bao nhifiu tdng kim nggch thuomg mgi ciia ASEAN. Theo bio cio thdng kfi nim 2015 cua Ban thu ki ASEAN, thj phin xuit nhjp khiu ciia An Dd trong thj trudng ASEAN chifim ty trpng cd thi ndi li rit thip. Nhin vio biiu do, chiing ta de ding thiy dupc ASEAN xuit khiu sang thj trudng An Dd nim 2004 chiim 1,9% gii trj tong kim nggch xuit khiu cua ASEAN. Den nim 2014 thi con sd niy chi ting len dupc 3,4%. Cimg thdi diim dd, thj phin nhjp khiu ciia ASEAN tft An Dd lin lupt li 1,3% vi 2% (nim 2004, 2014) so vdi tdng kim nggch nhjp khiu cua ASEAN.
Ngd Minh Ddc. Mpt s6 tdc dpng din nin kinh tiAn Dp...
Bang 2: Thuong mfi hang hoa An Dp - ASEAN giai dogn 2000 - 2016
£>cm V/V Trifu USD
Nim
2000- 2001 2001- 2002 2002- 2003 2003- 2004 2004- 2005 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 2007- 2008 2008- 2009 2009- 2010 2010- 2011 2011- 2012 2012- 2013 2013- 2014 2014- 2015 2015- 2016
»r ^
Xuit khiu CUI An Df
Mng ASEAN
2.913,78
3.457,01
4.618,54
5.821,71
8.425,89
10.411,30
12.607,43
16.413,52
19.140,63
18.113,71
25.627,89
36.744,35
33.008,21
33.133,55
31.812.58
25.154,50
Ting kim ngfch luit khin
44.560.29
43.826,72
52.719,43
63.842,55
83.535,94
103.090,53
126.414.05
163.132,18
185.295,36
178.751,43
249.815,55
305.%3,92
300.400,58
314.405,30
310.338,48
262.290,13
Cor ciu
(%)
6,54
7,89
8,76
9,12
10,09
10,10
9,97 •
10,06
10,33
10,13
10,26
12,01
10,99
10,54
10,25
9.59
Nhfp khiu CUI An D$
tiy ASEAN
4.147,48
4.387,22
5.150,17
7.433,11
9.114,66
10.883,67
18.108,48
22.674,81
26.202,96
25.797,96
30.607,96
42.158,84
42.866,36
41.278,09
44.714,77
39.909,60
Ting kim ngfch nh$p
khiu
50.536,45
51.413,28
61.412,14
78.149,11
111.517,43
149.165,73
185.735,24
251.654,01
303.696,31
288.372,88
369.769,13
489.319,49
490.736,65
450.199,79
448.033,41
381.006,63
Cvciu
(%)
8,21
8,53
8,39
9,51
8,17
7,30
9,75
9,01
8,63
8,95
8,28
8,62
8,74
9,17
9,98
10,47
C i n d n thmmg fflfi
-1.233,70
-930.21
-531,63
-1.611,40
-688,77
-472,37
-5.501,05
-6.261,29
-7.062,33
-7.684,25
-4.980,07
-5.414,49
-9.858,15
-8.144,54
12.902,19
14 755 10
Ting kia ngfch thmmg nifj
7.061,26
7.844,23
9.768,71
13.254,82
17.540,55
21.294,97
30.715,91
39.088,33
45.343,59
43.911,67
56.235,83
78.903,19
75.874,57
74.411,64
76.527,35
65.064,10
Nguon: Impori Expori Data Bank, Goverment of India, Depariment of Commerce
Nghien ciiu An E)d v i Chiu A. So 11 - 2016 Hinh 1: Cff c^u xuat khau cua An Dp
sang ASEAN
;3^
Hinh 2: Cff ciu nhap khiu cua An Dp tir ASEAN
I9M 3000 TDK 2010 3015
- * T » * ,
3010 JIU n o
»
Ngudn: Impori Expori Data Bank, Goverment of India, Department of Commerce
Hinh 3: Cff ciu thj trudng xuit khiu ITinh 4: Cff ciu thj trmhig xuit ciia ASEAN 2004 khiu cua ASEAN 2014
Ngudn: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2015
Ngd Minh Diic. Mot so tdc dpng din nin kinh te An Dp...
Dieu dd cho thiy ring, tiem ning dfi day manh kim nggch xuit nhjp khiu ciia An Dp - ASEAN cdn rit ldn. Hai bfin cin phii cd nhieu giii phip mgnh me han nfta nhim ning tim quan hf thuomg mgi tuomg xiing vdi tiem ning ciia minh.
3. Tac dpng ciia AIFTA den nen kinh te An Dp
Theo cic nhi nghifin cuu, Hifp djnh Thuong mgi hing hoi gifta ASEAN An Dp(AIFTA) da cd inh hudng din khoing 89% danh myc giim thui xuit nhjp khiu.
Trong dd, danh myc hing hoi binh thudng chiem 74%, danh myc hing hoi nhgy cim chiim 15%. Vdi Id trinh giim thui di dupc thdng qua, nin kinh ti An Dd sfi dimg trudc nhftng ca hdi nhu thi nio? Thda thujn AIFTA cd lpi cho cic qudc gia ASEAN hay khdng? Cd nhiiu li do giii thich cho thii dd hoii nghi niy.
Thu nhdt. An Dp di vi dang chju thim hyt thuong mgi xuit nhjp khiu trong giai dogn 2000 - 2015, mpt phin din tu quan hf thuong mgi hing hoi gifta An Dd vi cic qudc gia trong khdi ASEAN. Kim nggch xuit khiu thip hon kim nggch nhjp khiu khi ldn dien ra trong giai dogn 2000 - 2015.
So lifu cjp nhjt trong bing 2 thi hifn r6 tinh hinh tham hyt thuomg mgi hifn nay.
Gii trj thim hyt thucmg mgi hing hoi ciia An Dp - ASEAN dgt gin 15 ty USD trong nim 2015. Lifin quan tdi vin de thuong mgi song phuang. An Dp tham hyt thuong mgi vdi Thii Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia vi Myanmar. An Dp dgt thjng du vdi Vift Nam, Campuchia vi Philipines.
Tuy nhifin, xfit vi tdng thi thi cin cin thuomg mgi cua An Dp dang chju thim hyt ding ki. Niu tham hyt thuong mgi ldn vi tiep tyc keo dii nfta thi vifc giim mirc thui suit cd thi lam cho cin cin thuong mgi trd nfin tdi tf hom. Diy cung li mpt trong nhOmg nguyen nhin thiic diy hem nfta quan hf thuong mgi An Dd - ASEAN.
O cip dp tiiu vung, nhiiu chuyfin gia di khuyin nghj nhiiu sing kiin hap tic, trong do cd Sing kiin Hpp tic Kinh ti vi Ky thugt da nginh trong khu vye Vjnh Bengal (BIMSTEC) va Td chuc Hpp tic Mekong - sdng Hing (MGC), song cho din nay hifu qui vln chua dgt dupc nhu ky vpng. An Dd, Thii Lan vi Myanmar Ii thinh vien ciia BIMSTEC. Bfin cgnh do.
An Dd cung di ki Hifp djnh Thuomg mgi ty do vdi Thii Lan vi trd thinh ddi tic hpp tic kinh ti toin difn vdi Singapoi*
(CCEA). Mjc dil cic dieu khoin lifin quan din vifc cit giim thui suit nhjp khiu gifta An Dd vdi Myanmar, Thii Lan vi Singapore cd nhftng khic bift ddi vdi AIFTA nhung thui suit nhjp khiu uu dai djc bift trong AIFTA vln thip han so vdi muc giim thui di cam kit trong hifp djnh song phuomg.
Ddi vdi cic qudc gia thinh vifin khic ciia ASEAN, An B^ cd thuong mgi ding ki vdi Malaysia, Indonesia vi Vift Nam.
Trong bii nghifin ciiru Tic ddng cua hifp djnh thuomg mgi ty do vdi ASEAN ciia hai tic gii Parthapratim Pal vi Mitali
Nghifin cihi An Dp va Chau A. So 11 - 2016 Dasgupta^ cdng bd nim 2008 da phin tich
vfi CO cau thufi suit nhgp khiu cua cic nudc ASEAN, dua ra kit luin ring An Dp cd khi ning giinh dupc thj phin thj trudng ldn tgi ASEAN thdng qua Hifp dinh Thui suit nhjp khiu uu dai die bift (AIFTA).
TM hai, de hiiu ring lifu AIFTA cd thfi thiic diy xuit khiu cua An Dp hay khdng, chiing ta se nhin vio danh muc thui xuat nhjp khiu ciia cic qudc gia niy. Bing 3 cho thiy sy so sinh danh myc thui xuit nhip khau ciia An Dd vi cic qudc gia ASEAN dya trfin (MFN) ip dyng vio nim 2009 vi 2013.
So lupng muc thui xuit nhjp khiu cho hing mien thue di giim gifta cic qudc gia tu nim 2009 din 2013. Indonesia vi Singapore di giim muc mien thui xuit nhjp khiu mdt cich mgnh mfi - sd lupng muc mien thui xuit nhjp khiu li 2.091 ddi
vdi Indonesia (2009), vi giim xudng cdn 996 (2013) vi Singapore di giim muc miin thui xuit nhjp khiu tu 8.294 (2009) cdn 423 (2013). Trong trudng hpp cua Vift Nam va Campuchia, sd lupmg muc mifin thui xuat nhjp khiu theo chieu hudng ting.
ThO ba, cac qudc gia thinh vifin ASEAN phy thudc vio thuomg mgi nhiiu han An Dp, vi dy nhu Singapore cd ty If thuong mgi so vdi GDP la 262,9%. Cic qudc gia ASEAN khac ciing cd ty If thuong mgi so vdi GDP cao hon An Dd (Bing 4). Khiing hoing tii chinh 2008 vi mit mit ciia thj trudng d cic nudc phit trifin di lim cho nin kinh ti cic qudc gia ASEAN khd khan frfin tit ci cic linh vye nhu ting trudng kinh ti, xuit nhjp khiu hing hda, lao dpng, diu tu,... Hf qui li, cd thi ky vpng ring cic qudc gia niy sfi theo dudi cic ca hpi xuit khiu d cic thj trudng.
Paithapratim Pal v4 Mitali Dasgupta (2008), "Does a free trade agreement with ASEAN make sense?".
Economic and Political Weekly, 43(46): 8-12
Ngd Minh Due. Mpt sd tdc ddng din nin hnh tiAn Dp...
Bang 3: So sanh danh myc thue xuit nhgp khau ciia An Dp v i cic quic gia ASEAN nim 2009 v i 2013
L
Quoc gia
An DO
Brunei
Campuchia
Indonexia
U o
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philipin
Singapore
Thii Lan
Vift Nam
iAP = Nnn<
MFN trung binh dot 1 giin dvn/c ap dyng
NSm
2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 ' 2009 2013 2009
AP
31,4 32,2 0,1 0,1 15,2 18,1 8,1 8,5 NA NA 10,8 14,7
NAP
9,8 10,1 2,9 2,9 10,3 13,6 6,9 6,7 NA NA 5,8 8,0 NA 1 NA 8,7
8,7 9,7 0,2 0,2 22,0 25,2 17,0
5,1 5,7 5,7 0,0 0,0 8,0 8,2 8,7 24,2 1 15,7
D — O J
T6ng
12,6 13,0 2,5 2,5 10,9 14,2 7,0 6,9 NA NA 6,5 8,8 NA 5,6 6,1 6,3 0,0 0,0 9,8 10,5 9,8 16,8
• sS mtfc miln thue xuat
nhgp khau 305 319 6.509 7.985 1.136 631 996 2.091 0 0 6.630 3.267 416 366 423 307 423 8.294 1.521 1.503 3.153 2.539
Thue MFN t6ida apdvng
150 289 30
>1000 35 35 150 150 40 40 90
>1000 40 40 65 65 65 112 80 215 135 150
So myc thue xuit nhjp khiu MFN ip
dyng 10.770' 11.268
1.975 10.689 7.162 10.689 7.666 8.732 10.674 10.690 3.685 12.585 9.405 10.689 7.875 11.420
7.875 10.689 6.043 5.505 6.295 10.689
16
Nghien ciiu An Dp vi Chiu A. So 11 - 2016 Nguon: WTO, hd sa thuong mgi thi gi&i, 2009 vd 2013
»
mdi mpt cich mgnh me. An Dp, vdi ting tnrdng cao vi thi trudng npi dja rdng ldn cd thi li mpt sy thay thi tiim nang cho cic qudc gia niy. Cic qudc gia ASEAN li nhihig nhi xuit khiu din diu thi gidi vdi cic sin phim cdng nghifp nhe vi mdt vii hing hda ndng sin.
Thu tu, mpt trong cic lpi ich khi thi tCr thda thujn thuong mgi khu vye din tir cic lpi thi lifin quan din lpi thi kinh ti theo quy md. Niu quy md thj trudng npi dja ciia mpt qudc gia khdng dii rpng ldn thi mpt thj
trudng ldn hon dupc tifip cjn thdng qua cic thda thujn thuong mai khu vye co thi giiip cic nginh kinh ti cd dupc lpi thi kinh ti theo quy md. Kit qui nghien ciiu Hifp dfnh thuomg mgi lu do ASEAN: xu hu&ng vd thdch thuc ciia Kawai vi Wignaraja (2009) di de cjp din sy cin thiit phii ting tdc dp hpi nhip de cii thifn khi ning canh tranh toin cau bing vifc khai thic hifu suit kinh te theo quy md vi ciing cd quyin mic ci.
Mac du tranh cii niy vin cd gii trj, cin phii luu y ring An Dp da cd thda thujn thuong mgi vdi cic qudc gia ASEAN.
Bing 4: Dp md thvong mgi cua An Dp vdi ASEAN nim 2014
STT 1 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10
3
Quic gia An Dp ASEAN Indonesia Thii Lan Malaysia Singapore Philippines Vift Nam Myanmar Campuchia Bnmei Lio Thegidi
Ty If xuat khau/GDP
180,0 53,0 21,0 59,0 73,0 137,7
19,8 81,7 18,0 60,7 71,1 27,6 23,8
Ty If nhjp khiu/GDP
24,9 52,4 21,5 64,7 65,9 125,2
23,9 84,8 31,0 60,6 22,4 55,1 24,7
Ty If thwffng mai/GDP
42,8 105,4 42,5 123,8 138,8 262,9 43,8 166,5 49,0 121,2 93,5 82,7 48,5
1
Ngd Minh Diic. Mpt sd tdc dpng den nen kinh tJAn Dp...
Nguon: Ngdn hdng thi gi&i (2014), co so dO lieu true ttiyin chi sSphdt triin thi gi&i, IMF (2014), CO s& do lifu true tuyin so lieu xu hu&ng thucmg mgi
Vdi thui xuit nhjp khiu i p dyng d Ngoii ra, cic doanh nghifp vixa vi nhd miic thip d phin ldn cic qudc gia ASEAN (SMEs) cua An Dp trong ndng nghifp lien vi ciing do quan hf thuong mgi chjt che
hon giiia cic qudc gia vi Trung Qudc (mi vd tinh di cd FTA vdi ASEAN). Diiu ding nghi ngd Ii cd bao nhieu Iai tiip egn thj trudng AIFTA vi cic im dii thui xuit nhjp khiu lifin quan se dem lgi Ipi ich cho cic nhi sin xuat ciia An Dp. Niu gia ting tiip cjh thj trudng bj gidi hgn, thi cic lpi I'ch ky vpng thdng qua lpi thi kinh t i theo quy md sfi khdng cd. Mjt khic, niu tiip cjn thj trudng An Dp cii thifn lpi thi kinh ti theo quy md cho cic nhi sin xuat ASEAN, cic nhi sin xuit npi dja An Dp cd thi ddi mjt vdi mdt cgnh tranh khde lift hon tir cic qudc gia niy.
Nginh ndng nghifp d An Dp, dJc bift la trong trpt chfi, gia vj, c i phfi vi cao su sfi bj tic ddng tifiu eye bdi AIFTA. Thuy hii sin, dft may, may mjc vi linh kifn ty dpng cQng sfi phii ddi mjt vdi sy gia ting cgnh tranh do AIFTA. Ndng din d Nam An cim thiy bj de dpa bdi thda thujn niy. Francis (2007) cho ring cic qudc gia ASEAN sfi thu lpi ding ki tir sy gia ting tiip cjn thj tntdng An Dd vdi cic bin thinh phim hojc thinh phim ndng sin. Ci hai diu giim nhu ciu ddi vdi cic sin phim ndng sin npi dja bdi diiu niy vi ting nhjp khiu vdi cic hing hda thay thi cd the din din mpt sy giim gii ndng sin dja phuong vi vi thi inh hudng ngupc vdi nginh ndng nghifp ndi dja.
quan din san phim v i thiic in, ciing nhu hing hda thii cip v i sin phim cdng nghifp nh? ciing cd khi ning bi inh hudng tifiu eye bdi ty do hda thui xuit nhjp khiu do AIFTA.
Tuy nhifin, ty do hda nhjp khiu hing hda thii cip sfi khiin cic cdng ty da qudc gia MNCs thyc hifn hihi ty hda sin xuit trong khu vye, dJc bift l i nginh thiit bj vi miy mdc giao thdng. Diiu niy ciing cd thi gilip MNCs An Dd trd nfin tich eye trong khu vye, dJc bift l i cic nginh hda chit, sit vi thep. Dieu niy sfi din den hdi nhjp sau hon cua An Dd vio mgng ludi sin xuit mft sd nginh cdng nghifp nhu miy mdc, hda chit vi thiit bj giao thdng.
Xuit khiu ciia An Dp sg ting nhiiu nhat li: quin io, dft may, thyc phim, ndng sin khic, go v i sin phim tir go, khoing sin, thjt vi sin phim tir thj, mpt vii sin pham chi biin, dd udng v i thudc li, da vi sin phim tit da. Gia ting ldn nhit trong nhjp khiu cua An DO tir ASEAN sfi li Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thii Lan v i Vift Nam. Nginh An Dd cd nhjp khiu ldn nhit tir ASEAN la: thjt, kim logi, thyc phim, diu vi khi gas, miy mdc, quin i o v i cic sin phim chi biin khic. Cic sin phim niy sfi sin cd d An Dd vdi gii thip hom so vdi gii trudc khi ty do hda thuong mgi.
Nghien ciiu An E>p vi Chiu A. Sd 11 - 2016 Mic dil nhap khiu ting vdi cac hang
hda lim giam di sin xuit npi dja ciia chiing. Nhin chung, cd thi ndi, tdng sin phim npi dja d An Dp ting len, diiu nay tgo ra nhu ciu gia ting vdi phin ldn cac yfiu td sin xuit vi gii c i ciia chung. Yiu td duy nhit ma nhu ciu se giim la lao ddng chat lupng cao, mjc dii GDP qudc gia ting vdi ning suit khdng ddi theo quy md trong nginh chi biin. Hifu iing ehfch hudng thuong mgi ia nhin thiy dupc thdng qua sy md ta khi nhiiu nudc khdng phii thanh vifin ASEAN bao gdm thinh vien SAARC sfi mit thj trudng d ci ASEAN vi An Dp.
AIFTA mdi d giai dogn hpi nhgp ban diu, nhim tdi vifc trd thinh mpt lifin minh thue quan (CU). Hpi nhap kinh ti ciia cic qudc gia bao gdm nhiiu hinh thiirc hpp tic kinh ti toin ciu. Nd dien ra tir hinh thirc thip nhit din cao nhit thdng qua FTA, CU, thj tnrdng chung (CM), lifin minh kinh ti (EU) vi hpi nhjp kinh ti tdng thi (TEI).
Cic hinh thiic niy md t i mirc dp thanh cdng cao hom cua hdi nhjp kinh ti. Trong khu vye thuong mgi ty do, mpi rao cin thuong mgi giQa cic qudc gia tham gia se bj gd bd nhung moi thanh vifin thi ty do duy tri bit ky thui xuit nhgp khiu ngogi nio vdi cic qudc gia khdng phii thinh vifin. Mpt CU lifin quan din khdng chi thuomg mgi ty do khdng gidi hgn giiia cac thanh vifin ciia nd m i cdn ia mirc thui xuit nhgp khiu chung bfin ngoii vdi cic nudc khdng phai thinh vifin.
Cd thfi ndi ring, Hiep djnh Thuong mai ty do ASEAN - An Dp (AIFTA) da tao nin mdng viing chic cho sy thinh lap "khu vuc Thucmg mai vi Diu tu An Dp ASEAN (RTTA)" Trong dd, cd Hiep djnh Thucmg mai Ty do ve hang hda nhim thiic diy hon niia quan hf thucmg mgi song phucmg tuong xiing vdi tiim ning ciia hai bfin.
Vific tim hiiu mdt sd tic ddng ciia Hifp dinh Thuomg mgi ty do ASEAN An Dp (AIFTA) den nin kinh t i An Dp gdp phin khii quat dupc thyc trgng quan hf thuomg mai An Dp - ASEAN. Tir dd, cd nhimg giai phap nhim thuc diy hem niia quan hf thuomg mgi song phuang tuomg xiing vdi tifim ning ciia hai ben.
Tii lifu tham khio
1. Kawai, Masahiro; Wignaraja, Ganeshan (2009), Asian FTAs: Trends and challenges, ADB I working paper series. No. 144
2. Parthapratim Pal vi Mitali Dasgupta (2008), "Does a free trade agreement with ASEAN make sense?" Economic and Political Weekly, 43(46): i-l2.
3. ASEAN (2015), ASEAN Statistical Year Book 2015.
4. ASEAN, ASEAN Integration Report 2015, http;//asean.org/storage/2015/12/ASEAN- lntegration-Report-2015.pdf
5. ASEAN Intemational Merchandise Trade
Statistics Yearbook 2014, httpV/asean.OTg/?static_post=asean-intemationai-
merchandise-trade-statistics-yearbook-2014
