NGHIEN C U U
Su trdi day ve kinh te Trung Qu6c,
anh huong doi voi ASEAN va trien vong hop tac
TS.LeKimSa
•Ming tam Ph&i ticti va Dir bao Vien Han lam Khoa hgc xa hOi Viet Nam
1. Ky tich kinh te va trien vong ve sir trdi day ciia Trung Qudc
Sau hon 35 nam cAi cAch, Trung Quoc da tra thanh mOt n^n kinh t€ Idn, dang phat tri^n, va se ti^p tuc co cinh htrdng de'n c^c nudc khac qua nhimg giao dich qudc t^.
NgSy nay, vdi tu c^ch la nuac dang phat tri^n, Tmng QuCic da trdf thanh mot nguoi chcri quan trpng.
Thuc l€ la Trung Qudc da c6 mpt thai gian tang truong d$c bi$t. Thanh l i ^ cua 30 nam qua r^t dang bieu duong, nhung chi c6 mpt thyc le can luu y la Trung Qu6c b^t d^u tu m6l xu^t phat diem thap vol cac chinh sdch cila thai ky Mao (Orvilie S & J. Delury, 2013). Tang Irudng lrong thoi ky ban dAu la tuang doi d^ dang, va Tmng Qudc da phat lrien manh. Nhung khi Tmng Qudc trd n§n giau co han thi nhung gi giiip hQ tang trudng trong giai doan truoc se tro nen bao hda. Chinh \a v|y, tdc dp lang truong cua Trung Qudc s€ cham l^i, khdng cao nhu giai doan trudc do (Le Kim Sa, 2012).
HlDh 1. S B trfi djy vi knh t£ c i i Trane Q n i c mai sd diim a h u (GDP danh nghb, gii hipi hinli. ty NDT)
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H i H i i n n i U I H I iNpi6D Tic gli tiah loin theo so Ufu coa CQC IhooE ke Tnmg QuSc
Sau hon ba Ui$p nien lang trudng nhanh va keo dai lidn lyc, n^n kinh te Tmng Qudc dang dan den nguOng phai Iri^n mang tinh ca cau. Tai Hpi nghi Chinh tri hiep thuong \in lhii 11 vao lhang 3/2012, Thu ludng On Gia BAo da giai thich: "Khdng can doi ham y su phai lrien khdng ddng d^u giua lhanh thi va nong thdn, giua cac viing mi^n khac nhau va giua phat trien kinh Id va phai tridn xa hpi. Thieu phdi hap cd nghia la su Ihi^u can ddi cAn thidl giua cac linh virc thu nh^l, thu hai va IhiJ ba, cung nhu giila dau tu va lieu dCing,
tang trudng kinh td chii ydu dhn dat bdi diu lu va xuSt khau. Phai tridn khdng bdn vOng ham y rang chiing ta da iam khPng tdi vide tidt ki6m nang lupng va bao v^
mPi Irudmg". Md hinh tang trudng khdng can ddi cija Tmng Qud'c dua tren "ba cai Ih^p" la li^n luong lh5p, lai sual thap va ty gia dong npi thSp d^ bAo dam cung cap "ba cai re" la lao ddng re, vdn re, va d^l dai, lai nguyen, mdi trudng re, chuydn ty Id tidt kidm r^t cao ciia ngudi dan lhanh tin dung gia re cho khu vyc doanh nghiep, dac biet la cac nha xu^t kh^u, x&y dyng CO sd ha t4ng va kinh doanh bAt ddng sSn, da d^t ddn nguQng toi han (Michael Pettis, 2011).
Cd thd chi ra mpt sd dac didm cOa ngudng phat trien hien nay ciia Tmng Qudc:
Thii nhdt, kinh te Tmng Qudc ngay cAng tidn tdi
"diem ngoat Lewis" (Lewis's point), luc la khi Hdn cong bai dau tang nhanh hon nang su^t lao dpng.
Thu hai, ty le dan sd giua thanh thi va ndng lhdn l^n dAu tien viral qua nguong 50/50, ddi hdi phAi thay ddi
"mP hinh nhi nguyen" d^c trung bdi sir phan cdng lao dpng giua thanh thj va nong lhon, sang md hinh phai trien dua nhieu hon vao djeh vu va vai trd ty chii ciia xa hdi dan su.
Thu ba, bat binh dAng va b^it m5n x5 hpi da ddn muc bao dpng. Tu nam 2011, chi ngan sach cho dam bao em ninh, trat lu xa hdi da vucrt qua chi tidu cho qudc phdng. Chi sd Gini ve bat binh dAng thu nh§p ciia Tmng Qudc da tang nhanh tit 0,415 vao nam 1995 ldn tdi 0,474 vao nam 2012, miic bao ddng vd nguy co xay ra bao loan xa hpi (Terry Sicular, 2013).
Thii tu, hinh thanh cac nhdm Icri ich hung mgnh, ngan can nhung budc cai each tiep theo.
Thii nam, hinh thanh cac bong bdng tai chinh, bSt dgng san va na cdng cua chinh quydn dja phirang vdi hau qua khd luong ddi vdi he thdng tai chinh — ngAn hang va loan bd nen kinh td.
Thii sau, cho den nay Tmng Qudc vAn lheo dudi md hinh phat lrien "dudi bat" dac trung ciia Ddng A ma cdt loi la nhanh chdng bat chudc va hoan Ihidn cdng nghd, ky thual ciia cac ninjc lidn tien, dang m^l dan hieu qud, khdng cho phdp nudc ndy vuon len trinh dd sang lao ra cac y ludng va cdng nghd nidi.
TCr quan diem giai doan lu$n phdt lridn, thuc sy
Tmng Qudc dang phai ddi mat vdi nhirng nguy co roi vao "bSy thu nhAp tmng binh", ddi hdi phai cd nhiing birdc cai each co cau va thd chd quan lrong (Ld Kim Sa, 2013).
Dinh hudng chuydn ddi phuong thirc phdt tridn kinh td d Trung Qudc trong Kd hoach 5 nam lAn thd 12 va trong 10 nam tdi la tdp Imng vao didu chinh ca c^u kinh td nh^m tao ddng lyc tang trudng mcri, khdng uu tien tang trudng nhu trudc ddy ma chi dat muc tidu lang trudng tmng binh 7-8%/nam. Giai doan mdi s6 cd dac lrung theo nguydn tac "uu tidn ngudi ddn giau Irudc, nha nudc va doanh nghidp giau sau" thay cho nguydn tac tu trudc tdi nay la "nha nudc va doanh r^hidp giau trudc, nhan dan giau sau". Theo dd, Tmng Qudc sd chuydn tit "cdng xudng cua lhd gidi" thanh
"thi trudng cua thd gidi", lu "sAn xuat lai Tmng Qudc"
thanh "thidt kd bdi Tmng Qudc".
Tuy nhien, quA trinh chuydn ddi md hinh kinh Id Tmng Qudc se gap phai nhidu thAch thuc nhu su cd ket cua cac nhdm Ipi ich, trong dd cd cAc chinh quyen dia phuang, cAc nha tAi phidl trong gidi ngAn hang, v ^ dd gia hda dan sd. Dac bidt, lhu thach Idn nhdt cua Trung Qudc la sy yeu kdm cd huu va khd phd bd, nam lgi tmng tam sue manh hiSn tai cQa Tmng Qudc: md hinh phAl tridn do d4u tu nhd nudc theo kidu Ddng A.
Mac du vay, Tmng Qudc da mdt di mpt s6 loi the ma dya vao dd ndn kinh td do nha nudc din dat va dinh hudng xuAl khdu dupc xdy dyng. Md hinh phAt tridn ciia Tmng Qudc dA tao ra nhu cau vd muc luong cao hon d nhiing ngudi lao ddng lrong cAc nhA may ciia Tmng Qudc, mdt qua trinh se chac c h ^ iam xdi mdn cdc loi thd chi phi da thu hiit rat nhieu cdng ty nudc ngoai ddn lhidt Idp ca so chd tao 6 Tmng Qudc nhidu nam Irudc.
CAc kjch bAn vd sy trdi day cQa Tmng Qudc Nhirng thay ddi Idn dang diln ra trong ndn kinh te Tmng Qudc da duoc dy bao va thao luan lrong nhieu nam, da di tu Tmng Qudc loan nang, vdi nidm tin rAng khdng cd gi mA ngudi Tmng Qudc khdng thd xu Iy dupc, sang vi^c nhSin thdy rang Tmng Qudc dudng nhu khdng cdn kidm soAt dupc tinh hinh niia. Hi$n nay, cAc nghidn cuu dy bAo khAc nhau, thAm chi IrAi ngupc nhau nhung luu chung lai, den nam 2020, su Iroi dAy cua Tmng Qud'c cd the didn ra theo 3 hudng kjch bAn sau dAy:
Kich bAn Ihir nhdt: Tmng Qudc dai luc tan ra, hinh thanh lhd chd chinh tri da dAng, che dd rihA nudc lien bang theo thudng ddn chu, hoAc hinh thdnh nhieu qudc gia ddc lAp. Hd lyy ti6u cue ciia 30 ndm cai cAch md cira da d^y Tmng Qudc den budc ngoAt khd trAnh.
Nhiing he lyy nAy bao gdm v&n nan tham nhung trAn lan, sy Igm dung quydn lyc dAn ddn mat Idng lin, tir dd Idm suy ydu va tan ra DAng cam quyen. Sau khi Tmng Qudc ty tan rA, lu day tin rAng thd gidi se cd hda binh phai lridn theo hudng dAn chii vA thi trudng tu do lidn
kel kinh td sd mang lai thinh vuang cho mpi qudc gia.
Tuy nhien, day la mdt kich bAn khd xay ra vi nhieu Iy do, lrong dd quan trpng nhdl !A khA nAng tu dieu chinh ciia Tmng Qudc vAn ldn, co hdi cho Tmng Qudc trdi dAy mpt cAch "hda binh" vAn cdn.
Kich bAn thir hai: Tmng Qudc dai luc phAt ddng mpt cupc chien tranh do sire dp lii nhieu phia ddng thdi cac nhdm loi ich vAn ddng cho chien lranh dai dupc myc liSu. Nhu vAy, Tmng Qudc van cd kha nang lan ra khi gidi lanh dao Tmng Qudc khdng kidm soAt ndi chii nghia dAn tdc cue doan, sd vanh nudc ldn, khdng "chiu ddu minh chd thdi", ndn ndng tranh bA xung hung vdi My, diing quAn sy chidm linh Bidn Ddng ddn den chien tranh nhidu ben tham gia. Tuong ty, kich ban nay cung khd xay ra vi gidi linh hoa Tmng Qudc hidu r4ng, diing quAn su gay chidn vdi cac nudc lAng gidng, ICr dd dAn ddn mpt cudc chien mang lAm chidn tranh the gidi la ty sAl vi Tmng Qudc chua hdi du cAc ydu id de danh phdn thdng.
Kich bAn lhii ba: Tmng Qudc didu chinh dd liep tyc trdi day cd vd kinh td lAn quan su, tidp tuc di sau vao cai each md ciia, hdi nhAp loan cAu, "di ra ngoai"
manh bao hon dd tao the chidn luac canh tranh nudc Idn. Dd thyc thi chidn lupc nay Tmng Qudc se tang cudng hpp lac vdi My theo tinh thAn "quan hd nudc ldn kieu mdi" theo hudng vira hop lAc vua ddu tranh chia sd Ipi ich vdi MJ trdn mpi linh vyc. Ddi vdi cAc nudc xung quanh, cung nhu vdi vdn dd tranh chap trdn bidn, Tmng Qudc "vira ddm vira xoa", ttr dd day manh cac gidi phdp mdm vd lidn kdt kinh id khu vuc:
ACFTA, "Mpt tmc hai cAnh", "Hai hAnh lang mpt vAnh dai",.... Ddng thdi, Tmng Qudc se lAng cudng sire manh quAn sy eung nhu cAc giAi phAp quAn sy khoAc ao dAn sy lgi Bidn Ddng, sAn sAng tgo ra xung dpi cudng dp thdp, xem dAy nhu mdt bidn phAp ciing thiic dAy cAc giAi phAp mem ve Ii6n kdt kinh te khu vyc do Tmng Qudc chu dao.
Xu hudng lhii ba nAy cd nhieu khA nang nh^t vi la kich bAn it tdn kdm nhat ddi vdi Tmng Qudc. Vdi xu hudng nay, Tmng Qudc da dang vA s6 lidp luc cd nhiing Anh hudng vd nhidu khia canh, trong dd cd kinh te ddi vdi cae nudc ASEAN ndi chung vA \^dt Nam ndi rieng.
2. Quan he kinh te ASEAN - Trung Quoc Vdi nhirng kj- tich kinh te, Tmng Qudc dang thd hidn vai trd cua mpt nudc Idn, cd pham vi anh hudng todn cau, rdo ridt Ihiet lap nhirng cupc chcri trdn vii dai quan he qudc td, tich cyc md rpng khdng gian phat trien ra xung quanh lren nhidu phuong didn, nhieu cdp dp, nhidu lang nAc, ma b^t dau IA d khu vyc va Uong quan h$ vdi cAc nudc ASEAN.
Ve thuong mai, lu nhimg nAm 1990, ASEAN vA Tmng Qudc dA ngAy cang md rpng quan he kinh le va tang cudng Ihuong mgi song phuong giiia hai khu vyc.
Khu vyc mau dich ty do ASEAN — Tmng Qudc
(ACFTA) dupc thanh lap nAm 2010, dAnh dau mpt budc tien quan trpng trong su phAt Uien linh hinh thuong mai song phuang.
NAm 2013, tdng kim ngach xudt nhap khdu giua Tmng Qudc va ASEAN IA 443,599 trieu USD chidm 10,7% trong tdng kim ngach xuat nhAp khdu ciia Trung Qudc. ASEAN diing thii ba trong sd cac ddi tac thuong mai cua Tmng Qudc sau EU vA My, vA la ddi lac thuong mai ldn nhat ciia Tmng Qudc trong sd cAc qudc gia dang phAt trien. Trong khi do, ndu khdng tinh den thuang mai ndi vimg giira cAc nudc ASEAN, Trung Qudc la ddi tac Ihuong mai ldn thii nhat ciia ASEAN trong nam 2013 cA ve xudt khau vA nhap khau chidm 14% trong Idng kim ngach thuong mgi ciia cAc nudc ASEAN
Vd xudl khdu, tir nam 2000 den 2014 gia tri xuat khau ciia Tmng Qudc vdi ASEAN tang lien tuc qua cdc nam, til 17,341 tridu USD nam 2000 len 272,055 tridu USD nam 2014. Nam 2010, hiep dmh ty do thuong mai ASEAN — Trung QUdc chinh lhiic duoc ki kdt da thuc day quan hd thuong mai song phuong giua hai khu vuc.
Ve nhap khau, kim ngach nhAp khAu cua Tmng Qudc ttr cAc nudc ASEAN cd xu hudng tuong ty nhu xudt khdu. Xu hudng gia tAng trong idng kim ngach nhap khdu ciia Trung qudc tii cAc nudc ASEAN tir nAm 2000 ddn nam 2008 tit 22,181 tridu USD len den 116,974 trieu USD. Tir nAm 2010, khi hon 93% hAng hda xudt nh£^ khdu giiia Tmng Qudc vA ASEAN dupc hudng muc thud uu dAi 0%, nhAp khau cua Tmng Qudc t^
ASEAN tang dAng kd vdi miic lAng trudng 44,8%.
Mpt diem dAng luu y la Trung Qudc cd tham hut Ihuong mgi vdi cac nudc thanh vien ASEAN trong sudt giai doan 2002 den 2011. Tham hyt thuong mai gia ttr nam 2000 den 2006, tuy nhien tham hut Ihuong mai giam nhanh den nam 2009 va khdi phuc trong cac nam 2010 va 2011. Tuy nhien, tir nam 2012, quan he thuong mai giua Tmng Qudc va cac nudc ASEAN da ddo chieu, Tmng Qudc trd thanh qudc gia cd thang du thuong mai vdi cac nudc ASEAN vdi miic thang du la 63.841 tri^u USD trong nam 2014.
B i t l : T h w > f a i T r M g Q B 5 c ^ ^ A S E A W . 2000-2014 (tri&iUSa))
NGHIDN ClAJ
Nim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
X n l i U i i u (tii^i USD)
138 207 170.083 204J72 244 040 272.055 Ng
Tingmraog
(%)
30.1 23.1 2 0 1 19.5 11.5 UOQ: U N C O M T
N h ^ l d i i n Cni?uUSD)
154.569 192 771 195 821 199 559 208 J 1 4 RADE
TIagtnrang
44.8 24.7 1 6
\3 4.3
cAc linh vyc IA khoang 6 tj USD vA lupng vdn ddu tu cua Tmng Qudc vao ASEAN nam 2012 IA 28 ty USD (WIR 2014). Tuy nhien, cAc con sd nAy chua bao gdm nhung phuong lhiic dau tu khAc cua Tmng Qudc vao ASEAN, dAc bidt Id trong linh vyc ha t ^ g .
BiBfl 2: FDI T n m g Q » c vao
NoQgiigluqi JUuiUioug Cliet»o Xiyd^ng IfatKOSmfi Taidimli Bi(d$agsin Diclivq Khic Ehfagphialofi Tonji
2010
45.0 3524 S4^
-21.4 76.4 1106.6 7592 100.5 29.0 1521.1 4053.4
ASEAN A M w U k . » l f r » U OdEa JJSCn 2011
SS.4 172.6 393.5 128.0 8T7.7 3704.0 1678.S -205,1 107.8 994,0 7856J
2012
S8.7 28S.6 342J 108.1 S94J 602.6 1903.1 990,7 10,4 480.5 5376,8
2013
88,2 558.1 1140.2 21.6 2711.8 1143.9 1522,7 S76J
87,8 792,6 8643^
» & 1 0 1 0 - 61.8 3 « J 49(U 59,1 1065.1 16393 146Sj»
365,7 S8.7 934,6 6482,5 IgooQ: ASEAN InvestmoitRqwn 2014
Ddng Vd'n FDI ciia Tmng Qudc vAo ASEAN cd xu hudng gia lAng bdi mdt sd nhAn td nhu chinh sAch qudc id hda cAc doanh nghidp Tmng Qudc, sy van dpng cua Khu vuc mAu dich ty do ASEAN — Trung Qudc, nhiing ho trp ciia chinh phii Trung Qudc, ciing nhu mdi trudng dau tu cua ASEAN dupc cAi thien tao ra nhiing co hdi mdi (AIR 2013).
cac doanh nghiep hoat dpng d cAc nudc ASEAN khdng chi la cac nha ddu tu tryc tidp ma cdn la cdc nha IhAu va cac nha thdu phy cho cAc dofmh nghiep xAy dyng vA phat tridn ha tdng Trung Qudc khac.
Ben canh dd, trong nhirng nAm gAn dAy dA cd mOt lAn sdng cAc cdng ty nhd va vira ciia Trung Qudc chuydn sang dau lu tai cAc nudc ASEAN, dac bidt la trong ngAnh che tao. MAc dii cdn khA nhd, nhung FDI ciia Tmng Qudc vAo ngAnh che lao cua ASEAN dA gia tang 4,4 lAn trong nhung nAm gdn dAy, Imng binh 87 tri#u USD giai doan 2006-2009 Idn 490 tridu USD giai doan 20I0-20I3, chii yeu la trong linh vyc del may. Ly do chinh ciia vide cAc cdng ly ddt may Trung Qudc chuyen djeh sang cAc nudc thanh vidn ASEAN nhu Campuchia, Myanmar, Viet Nam la do chi phi lao ddng thap hon. Ndi each khdc, chi phi lao ddng tang d Tmng Qude se tiep tyc lam chuydn hudng dau tu sar^
cAc nudc lAn cAn cd chi phi th^p hon.
mmk 2: Jigaia FDI kane dlD vao XSEAy, 2011-2012 (tarilD USD)
Vd dAu tu true tiep, tiong nhiing nAm gdn dAy, FDI tu Trung Qudc vAo ASEAN dA lAng len nhanh chdng.
Ludng FDI cua Trung Qudc chu \eu tAp tmng vAo cAc ngAnh phAt Uidn co sd ha tAng vA khai khodng. CAc cam kdl cua Tmng Qudc ddi vdi cac dy An co sd ha lAng cua ASEAN trong giai doan 2013-2017 IA khoAng 50 ty USD, tmng binh 10 ly USD mdi nAm. Ddng vdn FDI cua Trung Qudc tmng binh hAng nAm vAo tat ca
2 5 0 0 0 ^ 20000 -
isooo - 10000 ~
5000 -
! 1 k I •
1
EU NRI• 2 D I 1 B 2 D U 12111}
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NhStBin AS£*K M? Hongkong Tnmg Qu6c iSo: ASEAN Invatmcnl Kepatt 2014
3. Aiili hudng cua Trang Quoc *a toi sach cua ASEAN
Thdng thudng, dd danh gid anh hudng va "do ludng" mdi quan hd kinh Id giiia Trung Qudc vdi ASEAN, cdc sd lidu vd thuong mai va ddu tu thudng dupc sir dung. CAc con sd nay thudng dua ddn nhiing nhAn dinh tich cue, nhung cung cd thd thdy vAn cdn nhidu tdn tai trong mdi quan hd vd kinh td giiia Tmng Qudc vdi ASEAN, nhu sau:
Thii nhdt, trong khi Trung Qudc ludn duy tii vi tri trong 5 ddi tAc thuong mai hAng dSu eua ASEAN, miic dd phy lhudc vAo Trung Qudc d vj thd xudt khdu hoAc nhAp khdu, hoAc cA 2 ludn thay ddi. Nhin chung, cAc ndn kinh td manh nh^t trong khdi ASEAN v5n da dang hda cAc ddi tAc thuong mai. trong khi nhiing nudc kdm phAt tridn hon thi phy thupc nhidu han vAo Tmng Qudc, d$e bidt IA vd nh^p khdu. Vdi mdt sd qudc gia, nhAp khdu tii Tmng Qudc gia tang trong khi nhap tir cAc ddi tAc ASEAN khac lai giAm siit.
Thir hai, Hi khi Hidp dinh Ty do Thuong mai ASEAN
— Trung Qudc (ACFTA) cd hieu lyc ddy dd vAo nam 2010 — tao thanh mpt khu vuc ty do thuong mai Idn nhdl thd gidi vd dAn sd' - mau djeh hang hda cua ASEAN vdi Trung Qudc dA tii thAng du chuydn thAnh thAm hyl tdi 45 ty USD nAm 2013.
Thii ba, ngudn gde chfnh trong thuong m^i ASEAN
— Tmng Qudc vSn IA hAng chd tao — dAc bidt IA mAy mdc vA dd didn tu. NgoAi ra cdn mpt sd trudng hpp d§c bi§t, nhu Campuchia phy thudc vAo hAng ddt may nhdp khdu tir Tmng Qudc, vA Indonesia va Myanmar phy thudc vao thi trudng Trung Qudc dd xudl khdu hAng hda. Didu nAy cho thdy bAn chdt ciia mdi quan hd thuang mai nAy IA Tmng Qudc dang dupc hudng Ipi nhidu hon, trong khi cAc qudc gia ASEAN bi thidt thdi 6 cAc linh vyc khAc nhu dich vy.
Thii tu, m$c dd trong mdt sd trudng hpp Tmng Qudc dang gia lAng Anh hudr^ vd thuong mai, song vai trd cua Tmng Qudc vd ddu lu vAo ASEAN cdn khidm tdn. NAm 2013, Tnmg Qude mdi chi gdp 2,3%
vAo Idng vdn ddu tu FDI cda ASEAN. VA dii cd Unh cA Hongkong lhi Tmng Qudc vAn chua thd duac xdp vAo v\ tri nhA dAu tu ldn cua khu vyc ASEAN
Ndi tdm Iai, Anh hudng cda Tmng Qudc vdi ASEAN vd m$t kinh td ngdy cAng tang 16n nhung vdn chua thyc sy mang tfnh chi phdi. Mac dii v$y, nhiing nii ro mang tinh de dpa trong quan he vdi Tmng Qudc, tung nudc ASEAN thyc thi chfnh sAch vA phAn ling da dang vdi Tmng Qudc, coi sy trdi dAy ciia Tmng Qudc IA co hOi ma cung IA thAch thirc Idn. Tuy nhidn, vd tdng thd, cAc nudc ASEAN nhin chung da thyc hidn mpt sd chfnh sAch dd vira khai thAc Ipi Ich, tang cudng hop lAc vdi Tmng Qudc, vda han chd nhirng tAc ddng khdng mong mudn tii sy li6i day ciia cudng qudc nAy.
Vd hpi nhAp kinh td, nhAn td Trung Qudc da thiic d&y ASEAN hpi nh&p theo hai hudng:
Thii nh^t, tang cudng hop tac vdi cAc cudng qudc tii bdn ngoai, dac bidt vdi My vA Nhdt BAn. TAng cudng quan h$ ddi tac vA tidn tdi quan hd chidn luyc vdi MJ IA mdt chinh sach quan trpng. Nhiing didu chinh mdi troi^ chinh sAch cua My dA dupc ASEAN nhidt lidt hoan nghenh. CAc cudc gAp cdp cao giiia My va ASEAN cho didy hai bdn dA tAng cudng hpp tAc dd md rpng quan he thuong mai vA ddn trinh Thupng dfnh ASEAN — My da dupc thd chd hda.
Ddi vdi NhAt BAn, trdn co sd ldn tai ngdy cAng nhieu nhiing loi ich chimg giiia ASEAN vA Nhdt BAn ASEAN da hudng ling hAu hdt cAe sAng kidn vA nd lyc eua NhAt BAn trong thiie ddy hpp tac khu vuc. ASEAN hidn IA mpt lrong nhirng khu vyc quan trpng nhdt cua thd gidi vA IA ddi tAc thuong mai Idn thii hai ciia Nh§t BAn sau Tmng Qudc. ASEAN cQng IA mpi trong nhirng didm den h^p dAn nhdt ciia dAu tu tryc tidp nudc ngoAi (FDI) ciia NhAt BAn. Qua dd, NhAt Bdn vA ASEAN tao ra mpt khu vyc san xudt tdp tnmg khdng Id, tuong duang Tmng Qudc.
Mdi quan he giOa EU va ASEAN dupc bat ddu vAo nAm 1972, nhung trong 3 nAm lrd Iai dAy nhung budc chuydn bidn mdi thAt sy rd rAng, ngoai nhfing vide khac, mpt sd lupng ldn cdc chuydn thAm cao cdp tdi khu vye da didn ra. Vd kinh td, EU la ddi lac thuong mai ldn thii hai cda ASEAN. 238 t^ EUR hAng hda vA djeh vu dA dupc giao d}ch giira hai khu vyc trong nAm 2013. Thuong mai EU-ASEAN lAng tmng binh 7% m6i nAm trong giai doan 1993-2013. EU IA nhd cung cdp dAu tu tryc tidp nudc ngoai ldn nhdt tai ASEAN. DAu lu tryc tidp nude ngoAi (FD!) cda EU IA 22% cQa tdng sd trong nAm 2013. Hidn nay, EU IA mpt ddi tAc phAt tridn quan trpng ciia ASEAN. Mdi quan he tich cyc lren ca sd hpp tac loan didn vdi EU dA tgo ra nhidu ca hpi thudn Ipi cho sy hpi nhAp vA phAt trien kinh td ciia cAc thanh vidn ASEAN.
Thu hai, lAng cudng hpp tAc npi khdi thdng qua xAy dung Cdng ddng Kinh td ASEAN vA Cdng ddng Chinh tri An ninh ASEAN. Vdi AEC, ASEAN mong mudn hinh thAnh mpt khu vyc kinh td ASEAN dn dinh, thJnh vuong vA cd khA nAng canh tranh cao, lrong dd hAng hda, dich vy, ddu tu se dupc chu chuydn ty do hon, kinh te phAt lrien ddng ddu, giAm ddi nghdo va chdnh l$ch kinh td - xA hpi vAo nAm 2020. Vide hinh thAnh AEC mdt mAt se gidp ASEAN cd dupc mpt vj thd Idn hon vd iam tang siic canh trcmh trdn sAn choi qudc td, dieu ma ndu mdi nudc ASEAN ehi dung ridng rd thi khd Idng cd dupc. M$l khAc, AEC se giup sy hop tAc kinh td trong npi khdi cua ASEAN chAt chd hon, giAm bdt nguy co chia re ciia ASEAN dd hda tan vAo ndn kinh te toAn cAu mA trong dd cAc nude nhd se chju sy chi phdi ciia cac nudc Idn.
Trong cudc canh tranh gida cAc nudc ldn trong khu vyc hidn nay, khA nAng mpt thAnh vien ASEAN ndo dd cd thd hi sinh cAc l<;ri teh ehung cOa khu vyc cho Ipi ich ciia dAn tpc hp IA didu hoAn toAn cd thd xdy ra. Trong
NH Tt C H A U A -
NGHIEN CUU
RESEARCH
khi dd, ddi vdi mpt sd nude ASEAN thi hpp tAc khu vyc thAo ludn vd chia se nguydn vpng va lgi ich chung yong chi la cdng cy dd dat ldi cAc loi ich qudc gia. Khi Ipi van dd Bien Ddng, cQng nhu cAc co sd luat phAp qudc ich qudc gia khdng hoAn loan phu hpp vdi loi ich td va Cdng udc LHQ vdLu§t Bidn 1982, DOC vaCOC.
chung ciia khu vuc, cAc qude gia nAy cd lhd bd qua Ipi ich khu vuc dd lim kidm loi ich ridng cua minh. Do dd, khi AEC Wnh thanh, siic de khAng cua khu vyc se tang len dAng ke do mdi hpp tac kinh te dupc ky vpng IA tAng len, tu dd giAm nhung nguy ca den tir su ydi dAy ciia Trung Qudc.
4. Trien vgng hov tac Trung Quoc-ASEAN Tmng Qudc vdi lu each la mdt nudc Idn, mdt thi trudng Idn, mdt "cdng xudng cua thd gidi", se tidp tuc cd nhung dnh hudng tao ra ca co hdi va thach thiic vdi cAc nudc ASEAN. Xdt tii khia canh Ipi ich, mdi quan hd ddi tdc chidn lupc giOa ASEAN va Tmng Qudc se cang md rpng. Bdn canh nhiing van dd cdn tranh chdp, mdi quan hd kinh td ASEAN - Tmng Qudc sd lidp tuc gia lAng lren hai linh vuc thuong mai vd dAu tu. Bdn canh dd, cac vdn dd chidn luac eung se dupe cai thidn vA md rOng.
Thii nhdt, quan hd ddi tAc chien lupc ASEAN - Trung Qudc se dupc thuc ddy hon niia, ddng gdp thidt thuc vao hda binh, dn dinh, hpp tac va thinh vupng d khu vyc. Giao luu van hda va nhan dAn nhAm tAng cudng nhAn thiic vA sy iing hd cua ngudi dan ve lam quan trpng cda quan hd dd'i lAc chidn luoc ASEAN - Tmng Qud'c se dupe ddy manh.
Thir heii, kdl ndi giua ASEAN va Tmng Qudc se dupc tang cudng, nhdt IA ket ndi ve ha lAng co sd. Quy hpp lAc ASEAN - Tmng Qudc, trong dd cd vide hd trp cAc du An hpp lac kdt ndi se duoc sii dyng manh me, lAm lAng cudng sy hi6n di#n ve dAu tu ciia Tmng Qudc tai khu vyc thdng qua cac du An phAt tridn ha tdng vA lien kdl giao thdng van tAi giiia cAc tinh/vung dpc bidn gidi giiia cAc nudc ASEAN vA Tmng Qudc lhdng qua cAc ca chd vA khudn khd tidu viing nhu Hpp tAc luu vyc sdng Mekong, Hpp lAc kinh te vjnh B^c Bp md rdng, "Hai hAnh lang, Mpt vAnh dai kinh te"
giira Viet Nam vA Tmng Qudc.
Thij ba, mdi quan hd hpp tAc kinh id, thuang mai va dciu tu se tidp tyc duac md rdng lhdng qua phAt huy ldi da vai trd vA hidu quA cua cac co ehe hifn cd nhu Khu vyc MAu djeh ty do ASEAN - Tmng Qude (ACFTA), Tmng tam ASEAN - Tmng Qudc vA Hdi cho ASEAN - Tmng Qudc (CAEXPO).
Thir tu, ciing vdi sy hpi nhAp npi khdi vA su ra ddi cua AEC ciing nhu cAc cdng ddng khAc ciia ASEAN, ASEAN sd tang cudng vai trd tmng tam trong viec xay dyng mpt cdu tnic khu vyc thuAn Ipi cho hda binh, dn dinh va phAt trien d Ddng A. Ddng thdi, lien ket khu virc Ddng A thdng qua dAy manh xay dyng ddi tAc kinh td todn dien khu vyc, Kd hoach kdt ndi ASEAN +3 va Ddng A, SAng kien Chidng Mai...se tiep tyc dupc thiic day.
Thii nAm, ASEAN vA Trung Qudc se liep tuc kdo dAi
Tai iieu tliam itiiao
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