Bang chCrng thuc nghiem fac dong cua niem tin xa hoi den tang trudng kinh te
PHAM DINH LONG
LE VAN T H A N H
PHAM THI BICH NGOC
di viet ddnh gid tdc ddng cua niim tin xd hdi den tdng trUdng kinh te'va cdc kenh
^r^^ truyen ddn md thdng qua dd niim tin xd hqi tdc dong den tang trUdng kinh te. BUa tren ket qud nghien cUu. hdi viet khuyen nghi cdc giai phdp phdt huy vai trb cun niem tin xa hdi ddi vdi tdng trUdng kinh te. Sdlieu dUdc thu thdp tit cd sd dH lieu cua ChUdng trinh Khao sat cdc gid tri the gidi - WVS, cd sd dit lieu WDI, WGI cua Ngdn hdng The gidi vd dUdc tong hdp lai dudi dang trung binh cua moi giai doan 5 ndm, vdi 5 giai doqn: 1990-1994, 1995-1999, 2000- 2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014.
TiJf k h o a : vdn xd hoi, niim tin xd hoi, tdng trUdng kinh ti', kinh te hdnh vi.
1. Cd sd ly thuyd't v a c a c n g h i e n ciiu CO l i e n q u a n
1.1. Khdi niem vdn xd hqi, niem tin xa hqi vd tdng trUdng kinh te
Cd nhieu each hi^u ve von xa hdi, nhUng bai vie't nay de cap vd'n xa hoi theo dinh nghia cua Coleman (1988) va P u t n a m (1993).
Theo dd, vd'n xa hdi bao gom nhflng dac trUng trong ddi sd'ng xa hoi nhU: cac mang ludi xa hoi (networks), cac quy tdc hay chuan mUc (norms) va n i i m tin xa hoi (social trust). Day la nhiing yeu to' giiip cho cac t h a n h vien cd the h a n h ddng chung vdi n h a u mot each cd hidu qua nhdm dat tdi muc tieu chung. NhU vay, niem tin xa hdi dUdc xem la mot bo phan ca'u thanh vo'n xa hoi.
Tang trudng kinh te' la su gia t a n g t h u nhap/san phdm binh quan dau ngUdi hoac thu nhap/san phdm quoc dan. Ne'u viec san xudt hang hda va dich vu cua mot quoc gia tang len theo ba't cti each nao, cung vdi dd la thu nhap binh quan t a n g len, thi qud'e gia dd da dat dUde tang trudng k i n h td." (Perkins va cdng sU, 2006). Vide nghien ctiu tang trudng kinh te' ehu yeu la nghien c^u nhflng thay doi trong td'ng san pham quoc dan (GNP) hoae td'ng san phdm qudc ndi (GDP).
1.2. Ly thuye't ve cdc kenh truyen ddn Cac 1^ thuyet nghien ciiu vi vdn xa hoi da chi r a mdt sd' k e n h t r u y e n ddn, thdng qua do niem tin xa hdi cd t h e tac dong den tang trudng kinh te', cd t h e neu bd'n yeii to" quyet dinh t a n g trudng kinh td', m a niem tin xa hdi ed the tac ddng den: vd'n con ngUdi, ddu tU, thUdng mai va quan 1^ n h a nUdc.
Coleman (1988) cho r a n g n i i m tin xa hoi la mot yeu td' t a o r a von con ngUdi. Quan diem nay cang dUdc cung cd' bkng cac nghidn ciiu khac, chang b a n nhU Sequeira va Lopes (2011). Knack va Keefer (1997) cung cho rdng xa hoi cd n i i m t i n khdng chi ed dong liic m a n h me hdn de doi mdi va tich luy vo'n vat cha't, ma ciing cd t h e m a n g lai ldi ieh tfl vi6c tich liiy vd'n con ngudi. Nhflng ndi niem tin cai thien viec ti^p can tin dung cho ngUdi ngheo, lUdng hoc sinh t r u n g hoc phd thdng nhap hoe cd t h e cao hdn. Niem tin va sii t h a m gia cua cdng dan lam cho boat ddng cua cac to' chUc chinh p h u td't hdn, bao gom ca eung ca'p giao due cdng. Nhiing trUdng hoc cd cha't lUdng cao h d n l a m t a n g kd't qua giao Hiam Dinh Long, TS., Tru&ng dai hoc Mo Thanh ^6 H6 Chi' Minh; U Van Thanh, Van ph6ng UBND tinh Long An; Hiam Thi Bfch Ngoc, TS., Tniftng dai hoc Hoa sen.
30 Nghiin aiu Kmh t^s610(485} • Thing 10/2018
Bing Chung thtfc nghiem ...
due va n h u t h e lam t a n g von con ngUdi. 6 nhflng xa hdi cd niem tin tha'p, cac quye't dinh tuyen d u n g thUdng bi a n h hudng nhieu bdi cac dac diem ea n h a n dang tin cay cua ngUdi xin viec, chang h a n nhU cua q u a n he huyet thd'ng, quen biet, ma it chii trong dd'n cac thdng tin ve giao due, dao tao; dieu nay khdng khich Id ngudi d a n ddu tU cho giao due.
Zak va Knack (2002) cho r a n g niem tin a n h hudng t n i c tie'p lam t a n g ddu tU, ve mat ly thuyd't, eac n h a mdi gidi ddu t u la t r u n g gian giiia cae n h a ddu t u va cac doanh nghiep. Su thieu tin cay ciia cac n h a mdi gidi ddu t u lam xa hoi ganh chiu nhieu hdn chi phi giao dich lidn q u a n de'n ddu tU, dieu n a y lam giam ty Id ddu tU. Knack va Keefer (1997) cho rdng trong xa hdi cd niem tin cao, quan chtic chinh phii cd t h e dUde coi la dang tin cay va vi vay chinh sach (gifl lai sua't ngan hang, ty gia hoi doai d a n h nghia cd' dinh, khdng siia l u a t vi thue' n h a n h chdng) cung dang tin cay hdn. Khi dieu nay diing, niem tin cung gdi md ddu t u nhieu hdn va eac hoat dong kinh td' khac. Ke't qua la, trong nhflng xa hoi the' nay, cac n h a ddu t u dUa r a quye't dinh ddu tU, lua chon cdng nghe san xua't tdi vfti trong dai ban, chfl khdng phai trong ngdn h a n .
Trong xa hdi ma con ngUdi cd sii tin tudng Idn nhau, rui ro khdng t u a n t h u hdp dong thUdng mai la rdt thlCp, do dd lam giam chi phi giao dieh thUdng mai (Bj0rnskov, 2006a).
Knack va Keefer (1997) cung cho rdng trong mot nen kinh te' cd nhieu giao dich thUdng mai dUdc thuc hien dUa trdn sU tin tudng Idn nhau; dd cd the la dang giao dieh giao n h a n hang hda trUdc va t r a t i i n sau; hdp dong lao dong de thiic hien nhflng cdng vide khd kiem soat; quye't dinh ve ddu tU va tie't kiem p h u thuoc vao viec cac ngan h a n g va ehinh phu cam kd't bao vd, khdng sung cdng cac tai san nay. Trong nhflng xa hdi cd niem tin cao, cac ca n h a n td'n it chi phi hdn trong thUc hidn eae giao dich kinh te'. Vi khi do cac v a n b a n hdp dong dudng nhU khdng cdn thid't phai xac
dinh moi t i n h hud'ng cd t h e xay r a de th^
bidn trong hdp ddng; it xay r a t r a n h cha'p, khdi kien ddi vdi cac hdp dong kinh td'; cac ca n h a n dudng nhU cung sfl dung it nguon liic hdn eho vide nop thue', hoi Id, sfl dung cac dieh vu bao ve de bao ve quyen sd hflu tai san cua ho t r a n h khdi cac loai tdi pham. Neu cac doanh nghidp p h a i d a n h nhieu thdi gian kiem soat cac td'n h a i ed t h e xay r a do ddi tac, ngUdi lao ddng va cac n h a cung Ung gay ra, thi bo cd it thdi gian de nghien ciiu quy t r i n h san xuat mdi, cho r a san p h a m mdi.
Niem tin xa boi ed t h e tac dong tich cUc de'n chat lUdng t h e chd', k l ca the che kinh td' va the chd' chinh tri, cha't lUdng p h a p ly va hieu qua cua bd may h a n h chinh; qua dd gian tiep tac ddng dd'n bieu hien cua nen kinh te (Knack va Keefer, 1997; Knack va Zak, 2002;
Bj0rnskov, 2006a). N i i m tin xa hoi cd the cai thien hoat dong cua chinh phu va cha't lUdng cac chinh sach kinh te', bdng viec tae ddng den tinh chat va mflc do t h a m gia ehinh tri eua ngudi dan. Viec sd lUdng Idn ngUdi dan hieu va t h a m gia cac va'n de ve ehinh tri va cdng vu, gdp phdn quan trong trong vide kiem t r a xem lieu cac chinh tri gia va quan chfle chinh p h u h a n h ddng cho ldi Ieh chung hay de lam giau cho b a n t h a n hoac cho ldi ich nhdm.
Nhflng ngUdi d a n cd quan t a m de'n chinh tri va cdng vu se tfl choi bd phieu bdu hoac ydu cdu eung cap thdng tin ve boat dong cua cac ed quan n h a nUdc n e u hq khdng cd ddy du thdng tin cdn thid't (Knack va Keefer, 1997).
P u t n a m (1993) chting minh rdng ehinh quyen dia phUdng d vung phia Bdc va Trung nUde Y, ndi cd niem tin cao hdn, cung cdp cac dich vu cdng hieu qua hdn chinh quyen dia phUdng 5 vung phia Nam, ndi cd niem tin thUfp hdn. Hdn nfla, ngUdi dan d vung phia N a m dudng nhU tim den cac cd quan h a n h ehinh chi n h d m giai quye't cac va'n de ca n h a n , trong khi do ngUdi dan d vujig phia Bdc va Trung cd xu hUdng n h d m giai quyet cac va'n de rdng hdn, m a n g dd'n ldi ieh cua toan vung (Putnam, 1993; Knack va Keefer, 1997). Knack va Zak (2002) chflng minh r a n g
Nghiin aiu Kinh tgs610(485} - Thing 10/2018 31
Bdng chiifnglhuc nghiem ...
c6 ba cd che' khac n h a u ddn dd'n tac ddng nay.
Mot Id, n i i m tin cao cd t h e ddn de'n trach nhidm giai trinh cao hdn, vi cac quye't dinh dudc dua r a phai dap flng dUde yeu cdu eua cdng chiing. Hai la, sU dong t h u a n hoac thda t h u a n khd xay r a khi ndi bd chinh tri chia re.
Ngay ca d nhflng qud'e gia ma cae n h a chinh tri va cac cxi tri ed sU chia re m a n h me, thi vdi n i i m tin cao cac dong t h u a n vdn ed the dat dudc, bdi vi ca cfl tri va ehinh tri gia tin tudng hdn rdng ho se dUde bdi hoan ehi phi bd ra trong eac quye't dinh tUdng lai thdng qua cac quyet dinh chinh sach hidn tai. Ba Id, cac bang cua Hoa Ky, ndi cd n i i m tin cao, dd dang dUa r a nhflng chinh sach doi mdi hdn, cd the bdi vi cae n h a ehinh tri dang tin cay tranh dUdc su hoai nghi cua cdng chung ddi vdi nhflng thay dd'i the chd'.
2. Duf l i e u v a phittfng p h a p n g h i e n citu.
2.1. DU lieu nghien citu
DQ lieu dUdc sfl dung trong nghien cflu nay la dfl lieu bang, dUdc tinh theo trung binh cua mdi giai doan 5 n a m , tfl nam 1990 de'n 2014 chia t h a n h 5 giai doan: 1990-1994, 1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010- 2014. Tuy nhien, day la dfl lieu bang khdng can dm, do nhieu quoc gia khdng cd du dfl lieu ea 5 giai doan.
Dfl lieu ve niem tin xa hoi va tdn giao dUdc la'y tfl ke't qua k h a o sat cua ChUdng t r i n h Khao sat gia tri t h i gidi (WVS) eua cae n h a khoa hoc xa hoi nghidn cflu cac sU thay ddi cua eac gia tri va tae ddng eua chflng d i n ddi song chinh tri, xa hoi, bdt ddu tfl n a m 1981, thUc Men vdi gdn 90%
dan so t h i gidi, chung mdt b a n g eau hdi.
Qua 6 giai doan k h a o sat, td'ng edng cd 96 qudc gia va vflng l a n h t h o thUe hien khao sat, vdi 232 quan sat, chiem khoang 36%
tong sd' qudc gia t r e n thi" gidi, vdi so lUdng ngudi dUdc phdng v a n len den trdn 330 nghin ngudi. Sau khi loai bd giai doan 1 va mot so qudc gia do thieu dfl lieu cac bie'n khae, dfl lieu nghien cflu cdn lai 92 quo'c gia vdi 215 quan sat.
Cac dfl lieu v l t a n g trfldng kinh td', ddu tu, lao ddng, so' n a m di hoc, chi tidu cua chinh phu, thUdng mai, lam p h a t dUde lay tfl Bd dfl lieu cae Chi so' p h a t trien t h e gidi (World Development Indicators - WDI). Tang trudng kinh te' dUdc do ludng bang GDP binh quan ddu ngUdi tfnh theo gia cd' dinh cua USD n a m 2010 va da dUdc dieu chinh ngang gia sfle mua. Vdh vat chdt (ddu tu) bao gom cac khoan chi tidu n h a m bo sung vao tai san c6' dinh cua n e n k i n h t e cdng vdi mflc thay doi h a n g tdn kho, dUdc t i n h theo gia USD co dinh n a m 2010. Lao ddng dUdc tinh bdng ty le phdn t r a m cua sd' lao ddng tfl 15 tud'i tr5 len t h a m gia l a m viec t r e n tong dan so. So n a m di hoc binh q u a n cua d a n sd' ed do tu^i tfl 25 trd len, dUde ehuyen doi tfl cdp hoc da hoan t h a n h n h a n vdi do dai ehinh thflc cua ca'p hoc dd. Chi tieu cua chinh phu eho hang hda va dich vu dUde t i n h theo phdn trSra GDP. Mflc do md cfla n I n kinh te cua quoc gia dUdc do ludng b a n g td'ng gia tri xudt nh§.p k h a u va dUdc t i n h b a n g p h d n t r a m GDP.
Dfl lieu ve mflc do on d i n h chinh tri, cha't lUdng t h e che, cha't lUdng p h a p ly (thudng tdn p h a p luat) dUdc la'y tfl Bo dfl lieu Cac ehi sd' Quan ly nhd nudc Toan cdu (Worldwide Governance I n d i c a t o r s - WGI), gdm 215 nen k i n h td" t r o n g k h o a n g thdi gian tfl nam 1996 den n a m 2014. Gia t r i cua cac chi so nay dUdc Udc lUdng giao ddng t r o n g khoang tfl -2,5 (yeu) de'n 2,5 (manh).
2.2. PhUdng phdp nghien citu Nghien ctiu sfl d u n g cac md b i n h hdi quy tuyd'n tinh de d a n h gia tac dong eua niem tin xa hoi de'n t a n g trUdng k i n h t e va kiem chflng cac k e n h t r u y e n ddn, thdng qua do niem tin xa hdi tac ddng den t a n g trUcing kinh te. Md h i n h va cac bie'n nghien cflu dUa theo Bj0rnskov (2006a), Knack va Keefer (1997) va Pfister (2010), cu t h i n h u sau:
GDP binh q u a n ddu ngudi = p i + p2*niem tin xa hoi + p3*log(v6'n vat cha!t) + p4*lao ddng + p5*sd' n a m di hoc + p6*mfle do md cfia + P7*chi tieu cua ehinh p h u + Uit
32 Nghiin cdu Kinh t^s£ 10(485} - Thing 10/2018
Bang chuTng thac nghiem
3 . Kd't q u a v a t h a o l u a n
3.1. Niem tin xd hot vd tdng trUdng kinh te
Bdng eae phUdng p h a p udc lUdng: binh phudng td'i t h i e u t h d n g t h u d n g (OLS), cae a n h hudng co dinh (FE) va cac a n h hudng ngdu n h i e n (RE) cho h a m hdi quy t r e n . Ke't qua t h e hien t r o n g b a n g 1. Kiem dinh sii phu hdp cua md h i n h hdi quy diia vao kiem dinh F va k i e m dinh Wald, gia tri kiem dinh p (p-value) cua ba phUdng p h a p Udc lUdng deu nhd hdn 0,05, nhU vay md h i n h hdi quy thich hdp de udc lUdng cae t h a m sd'. So s a n h gifla ba phUdng p h a p udc lUdng OLS, FE va RE, cd sU khac n h a u ve gia tri va mflc y nghia eua eac h e so' hdi quy, do dd can thie't phai thUc hien kiem dinh d l lUa chon md BANG 1: K e t q u a
h i n h Udc lUdng p h u hdp. Thiic hien kiem dinh H a u s m a n va kiem dinh n h a n tfl Lagrange, ke't qua ca hai kiem dinh d l u chflng minh Udc lUdng bang phUdng p h a p RE phii hdp hdn phUdng p h a p OLS va FE. Xem xet kd't qua Udc lUdng bdng phUdng p h a p RE, trUdc het ve da'u cua cae h e sd' hdi quy, ta't ca d l u cd da'u dUdng, tflc la ta't ea cac bie'n giai thich deu cd tac ddng tich cue den GDP binh qudn ddu ngUdi, gia tri R^ = 0,4685 tflc la cac bid'n doe lap trong md h i n h giai thich dUde 46,85% su t h a y dd'i cua GDP binh quan ddu ngudi. Tid'p theo, xem xet gia tri kiem dinh p cua eae bien giai thich (ngoai trfl ehi tieu ehinh phu), t a t ea gia t r i p d l u nhd hdn 0,05, nghia la eae h e so' hdi quy nay cd y nghia thd'ng k§ tai mflc 1%.
uf6c lUdng m o h i n h Bien p h u thuoc
Phuong phap irdc lirong Niem tin xa h6i
Log \6n vat chfCt
Lao d6ng
Sd' nam di hoc
Miic d6 md ciia
Gii tidu cua chi'nh phu
So quan sat R»
p-value (F-test) p-value (Wald-test)
G D P binh q u a n d a u ngudi OLS
117,66»
(0,074) 3242.02***
(0,000) 2 5 1 , 5 6 " » (0,003) 2225,67»«»
(0,000) 9 0 , 7 2 » "
(0,000) 235,79 (0,254) 197 0,5407 0,000
FE 74,02«»
(0,028) 2 1 2 1 , 1 2 " * (0,000) 152,51»
(0,066) 2520,82»**
(0,000) 41,09**
(0,045) 34,33 (0,828) 197 0,6663 0,000
R E 84,69***
(0,007) 2573,29***
(0,000) 220,08***
(0,002) 2285,49***
(0,000) 54,43***
(0,001) 45,31 (0,752) 197 0,4685
0,0000 Ghi chu: *** y nghTa tai miic 1%; ** ^ nghia tai miic 5%; * ^ nghia tai mlJc 10%.
Danh gia dinh lUdng tae ddng cua tflng bid'n giai thich cd y nghia thd'ng ke den GDP binh quan ddu ngUdi, chi so" do ludng niem
tin xa hdi t a n g len 1 ddn vi thi GDP binh quan dau ngudi tSng len 84,69 USD vdi mflc y nghia 1%; tai san vd'n t a n g len 1% thi GDP
Nghien aiu Kinh t^s610(485} - Thing 10/2018 33
Bang chiifng thuc nghiem ,
binh quan ddu ngUdi tang Idn 25,73 USD vdi mflc y nghia 1%; ty Id lao ddng lam vide tren td'ng dan so tang len 1 ddn vi thi GDP binh quan ddu ngUdi t a n g len 220,08 USD vdi mflc
;^ nghia 1%; sd n a m di hoc binh quan t a n g len 1 nam thi GDP binh quan ddu ngUdi tang len 2285,49 USD vdi mflc y nghia 1%; chi sd' do ludng mflc do md cfla cua nen kinh te' t a n g len 1 ddn vi thi GDP binh quan dau ngudi tang len 54,43 USD vdi mflc y nghia 1%.
Chia dfl lieu nghien cflu t h a n h h a i nhdm de phan tich, k i t qua Udc lUdng the hien BANG 2: K e t q u a Udfc lUring m o
trong b a n g 2. X6t t6ng quan ve daiu cua cac he so' hdi quy, cd sfl khac n h a u ve ddu cua he sd cac bid'n niem tin xa hdi, chi tieu eua chinh p h u va lao ddng lam viec t r e n dan sd' gifla hai nhdm qud'c gia. Ddi vdi nhdm cae quoc gia p h a t trien, he sd^ eua bie'n niem tin xa hoi co da'u dUdng, nghia la niem tin xa hoi ed tac ddng tieh cUc d^n G D P binh quan ddu ngUdi vdi mflc ^ n g h i a 10%, ngUdc lai ddi vdi nhom cac qud'c gia dang p h a t trien t h i hd so bien niem tin xa hdi cd da'u am, tuy nhien n6 khdng ed y nghia t h d n g k e .
h i n h p h a n t h e o n h o m dH l i e u Bien phu thuoc
Hiuong phap udc luong Nh6m
Ni^m tin xa h6i
Log v6n vat chSt
Lao ddng
Sffn^mdi hoc
Miic dd md ciia nIn kinh l€
Chi tiSu cua chinh phu
Sd' quan sat R=
p-value (Wald-tesl)
GDP binh quan d^u nguiri RE C^c qu6c gia phat Iri^n
64.67*
(0,091) 5343,75***
(0,000) 205,08**
(0,025) 1307,30***
(0,001) 101,24***
(0,000) 503,05***
(0,003) 78 0,5339 0,000
G D P binh qudn d^u nguoi R E Cac qudc gia dang phat ti'iin
-31,65 (0,178) 1768,35***
(0,000) -31,96 (0,393) 1072,47***
(0,000) 15,89 (0,182) -19,75
(0,824) 1
115 0,5799
0,000 1 Ghi chii: *** y nghTa tai miic 1%; ** ^ nghTa tai miic 5 * y nghia tai miic 10%.
Cac k i t qua udc lUdng da p h a n tich cho tha'y, cae bie'n ddc lap trong md hinh nghidn cflu ehua giai thich dUde toan bd sU bie'n ddng cua tang trUdng kinh te. Do gidi b a n ve dfl lieu va pham vi nghien ctiu nen khd cd k h a nang dfla tdt ca eac bien sd' vao md hinh nghien cflu; phdn giai thich cua cae bien khdng ed trong md binh nghien cflu dUdc the
Men qua t h a n h p h d n sai sd'. D i i u ed the n h a n tha'y trong p h a n tich dfl hdu nghien ctiu la n i i m tin xa hdi t a n g len khi nen kinh te' cd bieu hien td't. Vi v$y, cd k h a nang cac yeu to" khac ngoai md h i n h nghien ctiu cd tac ddng den niem tin xa hoi. Cac nghien cflu cua Bi0mskov (2006a), Knack va Keefer (1997) eung cho tha'y dieu nay. Do do, niem
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Bang chiiTng thuc nghiem
tin xa hdi cd k h a n a n g la mdt bie'n ndi sinh trong md hinh. Cd t h e kiem chting dieu nay thdng qua kiem dinh bang phUdng p h a p D u r b i n - W u - H a u s m a n . Ket qua kiem dinh cho t h a y cd xay r a hien tUdng ndi sinh ddi vdi bie'n niem tin xa hdi.
De kiem soat tac ddng ndi sinh, cdn cd bid'n dai dien cho bien niem tin xa hdi. Bien dai dien phai dam bao dUdc hai dac tinh: thiC nhat, phai ed tUdng quan vdi n i i m tin xa hoi; thd hai, khdng cd tUdng quan vdi t h a n h phdn sai sd u,. Ba bie'n: tdn giao, bie'n gia cac quoc gia theo nen quan chii, bien gia cac qudc gia h a u xa hdi chu nghia dUde lUa chon thay the cho
bie'n niem tin xa hdi, bdi vi cd k h a nang dap flng dfldc dUdc hai yeu cdu trdn. Ba bie'n nay da dUdc Bjdrnskov (2006a) va Pfister (2010) chiing minh la cd tac ddng den niem tin xa hdi, vi vay dap ting dfldc dac tinh thfl nhat. Ba bie'n nay cung dap flng dfldc dac tinh thfl hai vi: du n I n kinh te cua quoc gia cd b i l u hien td't hay khdng thi cung khdng thay doi thuc te' viec cac nudc da tflng theo che dp xa hdi ehu nghia, cung nhfl khdng tae ddng de'n viec quoc gia theo ehe' do quan chu, do chu yeu la quan chu hinh thflc va khdng anh hfldng de'n niem tin tdn giao cua ngUdi dan, do ye'u to nay thudc ve ddi sd'ng tinh thdn eua ngUdi dan.
BANG 3: K e t q u a xi&c lifgfng m o h i n h v d i phUcfng p h a p b i e n c o n g c u 2 S L S Bien phu thuoc
Phuong phap a6c lugng Niim tin xa h6i
Log v6'n vSl chSt
Lao ddng
Sd nam di hpc
Miic dd m d cita
Chi tieu cua chinh phu
S6 quan sat R '
Wald test (Pfob>Chi2)
GDP binh quan dau ngudi
RE 84,69*»*
(0,007) 2573,29***
(0,000) 220,08***
(0,002) 2285,49***
(0,000) 54,43***
(0,001) 45,31 (0,752) 197 0,4685 0,000
GDP b)nh quSn d a u nguoi 2SLS
R E 75,94**
(0,022) 3291,59***
(0,001) 227,29***
(0,006) 1764,02***
(0,000) 58,47***
(0,001) 129,62 (0,417) 180 0,5213 0,000 Ghi chu: *** ^ nghTa tai miic 1%; ** J nghTa tai miic 5%; * y nghTa tai miic 10%.
Ke't qua Udc lUdng t h e hien trong bang 3 cho tha'y, ket qua Ude lUdng bang h a i phUdng phap xet v l da'u va tae ddng ed y nghia thd'ng ke eua eae bien giai thich la tUdng ddng; vdn chflng minh niem tin xa hdi cd tac ddng tieh
fldc lUdng cua niem tin xa hdi la thap hdn vdi phfldng phap hdi quy hai giai doan. Phat hien nay cung tUdng tU n h u nghien ctiu cua Knack va Keefer (1997). Chi sd' do ludng niem tin xa hdi tang len 1 ddn vi thi GDP binh quan ddu cue den t a n g trUdng k i n h te. Tuy nhien, he sd ngudi t a n g 75,94 USD vdi mflc y nghia 5%.
Nghiin aiu Kinh lgs610(485) • Thing 10/2018 35
Bang chiifng thtfc nghiem
Nhfl vay, ed du can cfl de cho rdng n i i m tin xa hdi ed tac ddng tich cflc de'n t a n g trudng kinh te. Tuy niem tin xa hdi khdng phai la yeu to ddu vao t n i e tiep eua qua trinh san xua't hang hda va dich vu nhU vd'n vat eha't va vdn con ngUdi, nhUng niem tin xa hdi tac ddng d i n cac ye'u td' khac cua nen kinh te de tao r a tang trUdng. Cac n h a nghien cflu da lap luan niem tin xa bdi tac ddng trUc tiep den tang trUdng kinh te bdng viec giam chi phi giao dieh va tac ddng gian tid'p dd'n tang trudng kinh te thdng qua cac kenh truyen ddn nhU: tae ddng den sU hinh t h a n h vd'n con ngudi, ddu tu, thUdng mai, quan ly nha nUde (Bj0rnskov, 2006a).
3.2. Cdc kenh truyen ddn Tac ddng cua niem tin xa hdi de'n cac ye'u
to' quye't liinh d i n t a n g trUdng kinh te' d u * d a n h gia thdng qua udc ludng cac md hinh hoi quy tuyd'n tinh. Ngoai cac bien da dUdc s\t dung trong md hinh Udc lUdng tac ddng cua niem tin xa hdi de'n t a n g tnidng kinh te' nhu:
GDP binh quan ddu ngUdi, mflc do md cfla cua n I n kinh te', so' n a m di hoc (vd'n con ngUdi), mflc do md cfla n e n k i n h te' (thfldng mai), von vat chdt (ddu tu) cdn cd mot so'bie'n khac nhu;
bien gia qud'c gia h a u xa hdi chu nghia, ed gia tri 1 neu la qudc gia h a u xa hdi chu nghia, ngUde lai cd gia t r i 0; bien gia quoc gia phat trien, cd gia tri 1 ne'u la qud'c gia phat trien, ngUdc lai cd gia tri 0; chat lUdng the ehe, on dinh chinh tri, cha't lUdng phap ly, hieu qua bd may h a n h chinh dUde d a n h gia bang chi 56', giao ddng tfl -2,5 (kem) de'n 2,5 (tdt).
BANG 4: K e t q u a vide l U ^ n g t a c d o n g c u a n i e m t i n x a h d i d e n c a c y e u to' q u y e t dinh d e n t a n g t r f l d n g k i n h t^
Bien phii thuoc Phuong phap udc luong Niem tin xa hoi
Log GDP binh quAn dSa ngu6i Qud'c gia hau xa hOi chd nghia
Chfft luong th^ ch£
Mirc d6 md cua
Ty 16 lam phat
Qud'c gia phat tri^n
On dinh chinh tri
Sd quan sat R=
p-value (Wald-test)
Vdn con ngudi
RE 0,005 (0,484) 1,792***
(0,000) 3,091 * • • (0,000) 0,386**
(0,022)
185 0,7282
0,000 D a u t u
RE 0,0007 (0,730) 1,057***
(0,000)
0,505***
(0,000) -0,001 (0,140)
188 0,9663
0,000 Thuong
mai R E 0,243*
(0,099) 20,785***
(0,000) 15,936 (0,199)
-0,003 (0,721) -12,883 (0,312)
212 0,0957
0,000
Chat luong phap ly
RE 0,005***
(0,001)
-0,338***
(0,000) 0,487***
(0,000)
0,449***
(0,000) 0,282***
(0,000) 196 0,9128
0,000
Hieu qua bd may hanh chfnh
RE 0,004**
(0,036)
-0,277***
(0,000) 0,640»»*
(0,000)
0,554***
(0,000)
196 0,8899
0,000 1
36 Nghiin aiu Kinh tesS 10(485) • TTiAig 10/X18
Bdng chiirng thirc nghiem i
Ket q u a fldc lUdng t r o n g b a n g 4 cho t h a y niem t i n xa hdi tac ddng tich cue dd'n boat ddng thUdng mai, eha't lUdng p h a p ly va hieu q u a bd m a y h a n h ehinh, t h d n g qua lam t a n g t r u d n g k i n h te. Khi chi sd' do ludng n i i m tin xa hdi t a n g len 1 ddn vi thi boat ddng thUdng m a i t a n g len 0,243 ddn vi (0,243% GDP), ehi so d a n h gia cha't lUdng p h a p ly, hidu q u a bd m a y h a n h chinh t a n g len tUdng flng 0,005, 0,004. ChUa cd du chflng cfl cho r a n g n i e m t i n xa hdi tac ddng tieh ciie den sfl h i n h t h a n h voh con ngUdi va ddu tu.
3.3, Thao ludn kei qud nghien citu Qua p h a n tich hdi quy md h i n h t u y e n t m h b a n g phUdng p h a p udc lUdng R E va 2SLS RE eho tha'y niem tin xa hpi cd tac ddng tieh cue dd'n t a n g t r u d n g k i n h td'. Tuy nhidn, k h i p h a n n h d m dfl lieu nghidn cflu t h a n h n h d m cac quoc gia p h a t trien va nhdm cac qud'c gia d a n g p h a t t r i e n t h i kd't qua cd khac di. Doi vdi n h d m cac qud'c gia phat trien, n i i m tin xa hdi vdn cd tae ddng tich eUc de'n t a n g trUdng k i n h te' vdi do tin cay cao; nhUng dd'i vdi n h d m eae quoc gia dang p h a t t r i l n t h i t i n h h i n h ngUdc lai, quan he gifla niem tin xa hdi va t a n g t r u d n g kinh tl^la q u a n h e ngUde, t u y n h i e n k e t qua nay khdng ed y n g h i a thdiig ke. Nguyen n h a n niem tin xa hdi khdng cd tac ddng cai thien t a n g trUdng k i n h te' c u a cae quoc gia dang p h a t trien, cd t h i la do nhflng quoc gia nay cd cha't lUdng t h e che kdm va bd m a y h a n h ehinh kem hidu qua, k h i d i i u n a y dflng thi khi ngUdi d a n dat niem tin q u a mflc vao ngudi k h a c t h i ho cd t h e bi ldi dung va hi ma't di ldi ich. Tudng tu, cung thiic hien p h a n tieh hdi quy md h i n h tuye'n t i n h bdng phUdng p h a p R E n h d m kiem chflng eac kenh t r u y e n ddn, t h d n g q u a dd n i i m tin xa hdi tae ddng den t a n g trfldng k i n h te. Ke't qua p h a n tich da chflng m i n h , n i l r a tin xa hdi cd tac ddng tich efle den thfldng mai, eha't lUdng p h a p ly, hieu qua cua bd may h a n h chinh, day la nhflng yd'u td' quyet dinh den t a n g trfldng k i n h td'; niem tin xa hdi
cung cd tac ddng tich cUc dd'n sU h i n h t h a n h vdh con ngudi (do ludng thdng qua sd' n a m di hoc) va ddu tu, t u y nhidn ehUa ed du chflng cfl de k h a n g dinh d i i u nay.
4. Kd't l u a n v a k h u y e n n g h i 4.1. Kei luan
Cd du chflng cfl chflng minh r d n g niem tin xa hdi cd tac ddng tich cflc dd'n boat ddng thfldng mai, cha't lUdng p h a p ly, hieu qua cua bd may h a n h ehinh, thdng qua dd tac ddng tich cflc dd'n t a n g trfldng k i n h td' cua qudc gia. Tuy nhidn, niem tin xa hdi ed t h e khdng cd tae ddng t h u e ddy t a n g trfldng kinh t e khi qud'c gia n a y ed eha't lUdng t h e che va bd may h a n h chinh kem hieu qua.
4.2. Khuye'n nghi
Dd'i vdi eae qudc gia p h a t t r i l n : nhflng qudc gia n a y ed t h u n h a p binh quan ddu ngUdi cao, t r u n g binh dat 29,262 USD/ngUdi, p h d n Idn nhflng qudc gia nay cd cha't lUdng t h e che cao, t r u n g binh dat 1,17 va bd may h a n h chinh cd hidu qua, t r u n g binh dat 1,23. Do dd, niem tin xa hdi dfldc h a u t h u d n bdi cd che' xfl p h a t m a n h me ddi vdi nhflng t r u d n g hdp vi p h a m cac quy fldc xa hdi, cac quy dinh cua p h a p luat. Nhflng qud'e gia n a y cdn nghidn cflu cac giai p h a p , chinh sach t a n g niem tin xa hoi de dat t a n g trfldng cao hdn.
Dd'i vdi cac quoc gia dang p h a t trien:
nhflng qudc gia n a y cd t h u n h a p binh q u a n ddu ngfldi cdn tha'p, t r u n g binh dat 8,367 USD/ngudi, eha't Ifldng t h ^ che' va bd may h a n h chinh cdn k e m hieu qua, chdt lUdng t h e che' t r u n g b i n h d a t -0,29, hieu qua bo m a y h a n h chinh t r u n g binh dat -0,34. Vide p h a t hien va xvt ly che' tai doi vdi nhflng t r u d n g hdp vi p h a m ehUa c h a t che, cdn ke bd cho cac ddi tUdng xdu Ifla dao. Ddi vdi nhflng qud'c gia nay, niem t i n xa hoi cao chfla t h e tao r a hidu q u a t a n g trUdng k i n h te, nhUng se tao d i i u kien eai each t h e che', cai thien hidu qua bd m a y h a n h chinh. Do dd, d i i u q u a n trong trUdc tien la cai each n a n g cao eha't lUdng t h e ehe, n a n g cao hidu qua bd
Nghiin ciiu Kinh t4s610(485) - Thing 10/2018 37
Bang chiifng thuc nghiem
may h a n h ehinh de p h a t h u y vai trd eua niem t i n xa hdi, gdp p h d n dat t a n g trfldng cao hdn.
Ddi vdi Viet Nam, n i i m t i n xa hdi k h a eao, 50,9% sd'ngudi dfldc khao sat t r o n g giai doan nghien cflu t r a ldi la hg t i n tudng moi ngUdi.
Tuy nhien, chdt lUdng t h e che, thUdng tdn phap luat va bd may h a n h chinh deu dfldc
d a n h gia k e m h i e u q u a (hinh 1), cha't lUdng t h e chd' tfl n a m 1996 den n a m 2013 khdng nhflng k h d n g dUde eai t h i e n m a cdn ngay cang xSu di, n a m 1996 chi so'nay bdng -0,53, n a m 2014 l a -0,65; cdn bieu qua bd may h a n h c h i n h cd cai t h i d n nhUng vdn edn han che', n a m 1996 ehi s d ' n a y l a -0,47, nam 2013
la -0,3.
HINH 1: D i l n b i e n c u a c a c c h i s o d o Iifcfng h i e u q u a q u a n l y n h a nvtdc c u a V i e t N a m tit n a m 1996 d e n n a m 2 0 1 3
• - . 3 0 0
. 4 0 0
-.6O0 - -.TOO - -,80D -
mr^ M^
•\ J
- * - » i ^ - * - * ^
\ t ^
j ^ * - * - -
\ ^ V * * S K " " " ••
N r - *
- • - R O L - * - G E F
Nhu vay, d Viet N a m , n i i m tin xa hdi ehUa p h a t huy vai trd giup cai thien eua n I n k i n h td'. Cung nhU cac qud'c gia dang p h a t trien khac, Viet N a m cdn cai thidn dudc chat lUdng thd chd' va hieu qua bd may h a n h chinh, cd nhfl vay mdi p h a t huy dUdc hieu qua cua niem t i n xa hdi trong kich thich n I n k i n h td'phat trien./.
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Ngay nhan b&i;
Ng^y duyet dang:
20-6-2018 22-8-2018
38 Nghiin aiu Kinh t£s610(485} - Thing 10/2018
