Bien Dong trong cue dien md'i
Tom tdt: Cue dien Bien Dong thdi gian qua da co nhirng diin hiin phirc tup. nhiing hogt dong mang tinh quyet dodn cua nhieu nudc d (rong vd ngodi khu vuc nhdm (im kiem, gidnh gigt vd mo rpng Igi ich ciia minh tgi vung biin ndy. NhUng hogt dpng tren khien cho bien Dong co nguy caphdi doi mdt vdi nhUng xung dot cue bo neu nhu cdc ben lien quan khong kiem ehe cdc hdnh dpng cua minh. Mpt trong nhirng nguyen nhdn khien tinh hinh khu virc ndy ngdy cdng trd nen phirc (ap Id do phia Trung Quoc dang tdng cudng cdc hogt dpng boi ddp, qudn su hoa cde thuc the md ho chiem giir tgi ddy, qua do dm muu thiet ldp uu the chien luge tren thue dia. Chien luge bien day tham vgng cua nudc ndy ciing phdi doi mat vol nhiing I hach thuc rdt ldn trudc su hien dien ngdy cdng gia lang cua cdc cirdng quoc tgi vimg bien trgnh chdp. Viet Nam cdn co mpt chien luge phit hgp trong viec lug chon chinh sdch nhdm (rgnh ihii nhitng ca hpi khde che nhimg kho khdn thdch thirc (rong bdo ve vd phdt huy Igi ich chinh ddng ciia minh tai viing bien ndy cua chung ta.
Til- khoa: Chit quyen bien, canh trgnh chien luge, qudn sir hoa cdc thuc the bien, hien Dong.
1. Bien Dong - "Chien trudng" cua nudc Idn La vimg bien giir vj tri huyet mach trong be thdng giao thuang tai chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg, bien Ddng ngay cang thu hiit sy quan tam ciia nbieu cudng qudc d trong va ngoai khu vyc.
Dudng nhu cbien lupc ciia cac nudc Idn ddi vdi khu vyc nay nhu "Sang kien Vanh dai, Con dudng" (BRI) cua Trung Qudc, "Chien lupc An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binli Duong" (IPS) ciia My, cac chinh sach cimg ten gpi "Hudng Ddng" ciia Nga, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc, "Hanh ddng phia Ddng" ciia An Dp hay "Hudng Bac" ciia Australia ddu lay Ddng Nam A lam tam diem. Cac dai dien ciia EU ciing nhieu lan khang djnii EU c6 Igi ich quan trpng ddi vdi bien Ddng, trong do, mpt sd qudc gia chii chdt nhu Anh, Phap, Due da
bat dau the hien sy gia tang miic dp quan tam tdi vimg bien nay vdi eac hanh ddng can du manh me hon nhu dieu tau chien, td chiic va tham gia cac cbien dich tuan tra ty do bang hai d mdt sd khu vuc tai bien Ddng.
Dang sau nhihig cbinh sach va hanh ddng quydt doan ndi tren la quydt tam gianh giat, bao ve hoac md rdng Igi ich qudc gia ciia mdi nudc.
Trung Qudc vdi "Gidc mo Trung Hoa", dang tim mpi each thiet lap khdng gian chidn luge mdi, bien Trung Qudc trd thanb trung tam trong cac ket ndi khu vyc va loan eau vdi cdng cu cbii luc la BRI, tham vpng sdm trd thanh mdt cudng qudc tren bien va sieu cudng tren the gidi. Trone khi dd. My sau khi "vo mdng" vdi nd iuc dua Trung Qudc hda nhap vao trat tu thS giai do My
*NCS. Hoc vien Ngoai giai
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Do Le Chi Biln Ddng trong cue dien mdi lanh dao da cbinb thirc xac dinh nudc nay la ddi
thil canh tranh chien lupc sd mpt, la mdi de dpa ldn nhat ddi vdi vj tri sieu cudng ciing nhu vai trd, anh hudng ciia My tai khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, trung tam thjnh vugng toan cku cua the ky XXI, do dd dang cd nhirng tinh toan va hanh dpng quyet liet hon nham ngan chan, kim ham sy trdi day ciia Trung Qudc. Cac cudng qudc khac tai kbu vyc ciing sdt sang bao ve lpi ich qudc gia bang each chii ddng dieu chinh chinh sach va thiic day hoac tim kiem nhimg tap hgp lyc lugng mdi phii hop vdi Igi ich ciia minh.
Nhin vao buc tranh tdng the vd bien Ddng hien nay cd the thay ndi len mdt sd net chinh sau:
1.1. Trung Quoc cd loi the trong so sdnh tifOng quan lire Iwo^g
Trung Quoc d the chu dpng vd co uu the hon so vdi cdc cudng quoc khde doi vdi khu vuc Dong Nam A vd bien Dong. Trong khi My va mpt sd ddng minh Iam vao khung hoang chinh tr; ndi bp va suy yeu tren nbieu mat tir sau cudc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau 2008 - 2009 thi Trung Qudc lai tan dyng co hdi, vuon len manh me ca quoe lyc lan anh hudng, dja vi qudc te, dae biet d khu vyc Ddng Nam A va bien Ddng. Vdi tde dp tang trudng lien tuc trung binb 9,6% giai doan 2006 - 2016, ddn 2017 GDP Trung Qudc dat xip -xi 12.000 ty .USD (chi sau My), du trir ngoai te
(3.000 ty USD) va kim ngaeh Jhuang mai (4.160 ty USD) deu dung dau the gidi. Nam 2018, lang trudng ciia Trung Qudc eham Iai (6,6%) do nhiing khd khan ndi tai va tae ddng cua cupc chien thuang mai My - Trung nhung van cao hon nhieu so vdi miic tang trudng trung binh ciia the gidi (khoang 3,5%). Tidm lyc vg kinh t l cho phep Trung Qudc chu ddng, ty tin dan dat nhieu md hinh hpp tac kinh te khu vuc, trd thanh ddi tac thuong mai Idn thii nhat, thir nhi ciia hau het cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A, khidn cho miic dp phy thudc thuong mai ciia cac qudc gia nay ddi vdi Trung Qudc ngay cang tang len, tao co sd de Trung Qudc xac lap va md rpng anh hudng ciia
minh len loan khu vyc. Den nay, Trung Qudc da trd thanh ddi tae thuong mai ldn nhk ciia ASEAN trong khi My chi xdp vj tri thu tu.
Mac dil tren pham vi loan cku. My vin ia qudc gia vugt trdi ve sire manh tdng hop nhung nhirng gi dang dien ra tai Ddng Nam A va bidn Ddng lai cho thay Trung Qudc dang chilm uu thd va dudng nhu khd cd ddi trpng nao cd thd canh tranh anh hudng vdi Trung Qudc tai khu vyc nay.
Thuc te thdi gian qua, trong khi My cd nhung ddng thai "co iai" vdi cac chinh sach mang thien hudng "biet lap", riit khdi nhidu cam kdt da phucmg, lien hanh ap dat don fibuong trong cdc quan he qudc te, ngay ca vdi cac ddng minh than can, truyen thdng thi Trung Qudc vdi Ipi thd gkn gui ve vj tri dja ly, van hda da trien khai manh me nhieu cbinh sach ddi ngoai vdi ba try cpt ldn la "Sang kien Vanh dai. Con dudng" (BRI),
"Cdng ddng chung van menh" va "Quan be qudc Id kieu mdi", ehu dpng dan dat nhidu sang kidn hop tae da phuang, gia tang dang kd anh hudng trong quan he vdi cac nudc lang gieng, hinh thanh nhiing tap hpp luc lugng mdi, lung budc loai bd dan anh hudng ciia My va thiet lap sy kiem soat toan dien trdng khu vyc.
Trung Quoc dd thiet ldp iru the chien luge tren thuc dig bien Dong. Trung Qudc co ban da hoan tat viec bdi dap, quan su hda cac cau triic ma Trung Qudc chiem ddng d bien Ddng. Vd co'ban, Trung Qudc da tao lap dugc uu the chien luge ban han so vdi My, ddng thdi vd hiey hda dupe uu thd ve dja ly ciia eac nudc ven bien Ddng tren ITnh vyc quan sy, lam thay ddi hoan toan so sanh lyc lugng tren bidn. Chi trong vdng hai nam (2014, 2015), Trung Qudc da bdi dap, nang dien tich ciia cae da, dao hp dang chiem ddng trai phep d bien Ddng len khoang 400 \in. Tu 2015 - 2017, Trung Qudc da cai tao mdt dien tich dat rpng ldn de xay cac dao nhan tao tai da Xubi, da Ty NghTa va da Vanh Khan; thyc hien hoat dpng xay dyng tai cac thuc the dao nhd (dao da) la da Chau Vien, da Ga Ven Bac, da Gac Ma va da Chir Thap d quan dao Trudng sa. "Nguyen trang mdi" da hinh thanh
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Biln Ddng trong cue dien mdi £)6 Le Chi theo diiiig y dd ciia Trung Qudc: i) tren cac thyc
the, da lap dat xong be thdng phdng thu tdm gkn va cac kho vii khi manh, thiet lap dupc he thdng radar giam sat, canh bao sdm, thu thap tinh bao;
ii) tren khdng, da trien kbai dupc cac loai may bay chien dau va van tai tdi 5 dudng bang tren cac dao Phii Lam (Hoang Sa) va da Chir Thap, Subi, Vanh Khan va Gac Ma (Trudng Sa), dii nang lye kiem soat bau trdi bien Ddng; iii) dudi day bien, da thiet lap mang ludi thiet hi do tham hien dai, rdng khap va cac thiet bj lan da tdi dupc nhirng diem sau nhat d bien Ddng. Trung Qudc Cling dang trien khai cac he thdng cung cap nang lupng mat trdi va nang lugng hat nhan ndi phuc vy lau dai cho cac boat ddng ciia Trung Qudc d bien Ddng. Ngan sach qudc phdng Trung Qudc lien tuc tang, uu lien dau tu cho hai quan. Den nay, Trung Qudc da chiem uu the rat ldn ve trang bj va sir dyng vii khi - phuong lien hien dai phyc vu eac nhiem vy tren bien va theo nban djnb ciia gidi quan sy qudc te, Trung Qudc da cd kha nang kiem soat bien Ddng trong mpi kich ban dudi ngudng chien tranh vdi My.
1.2. My cbua the hien muc tieu vd chinh sdch rd rdng doi vdi chien Iwgc ldn chiem bien Ddng cua Trung Quoc
Phdn irng cua My den nay Id ngng ve hinh thirc. My la nudc duy nhat cd du nang luc ngan chan Trung Qudc tai bien Ddng, tuy nhien lau nay, lap trudng chinh thuc ciia My vd cac tranh chap chu quyen d bien Ddng la My khdng dimg ve bat cir ben nao va iing hd viec giai quyet cac tranh chap mdt each hda binh tuan theo luat phap quoc te. Chinh thai dp trung dung, thieu kien quyet do da tao dieu kien de Trung Qudc lin ludt, van dyng "chien thuat vimg xam" hay "lat c4t Salami" de xac lap uu the ban han tai bien Ddng.
Hien nay, can can quan sy dang nghieng dan vd phia Trung Qudc, cac bdn dao nhan tao ngay cang dupc quan su hda nhieu ban trong kbi Trung Qudc khdng phai chju bat cir hau qua gi sau khi phdt Id phan quyet ciia Tda Trpng tai ciia Lien Hiep Qudc nam 2016 ve vu Philippines kien
Trung Quoe d bidn Ddng. So vdi eac chinh sach
"mem mai" ciia Tong thdng B. Obama thi Chinh quyln D. Trump td ra quydt liet hon vdi nhimg tuyen bd ciing rSn cung nhu sy gia tang ve tan sudt va quy md cac chidn djch tuan tra bao dam ty do hang hai (FONOP) tai bidn Ddng. Tuy nhien, theo phan tich cua nhilu chuyen gia, cac boat ddng nay khdng pbai la chiln luge de ddi phd vdi Trung Qudc va khdng cd nhieu y nghTa tren thyc te. Mat khac, uu tien ciia My hien nay tai khu vyc dang dugc dat vao Tridu Tien se tiep tuc anh hudng tdi muc dp quan tam cua nudc nay ddi vdi van de bien Ddng. Ddng thai rd rang nhit ciia My trong tdng the chiln lupc ngan chan y dd banh trudng ciia Trung Quoc, trong do cd banh trudng tren bien Ddng cd le la cudc chien thuong mai nham vao Trung Qudc. Vdi cudc chien nay, My dang danh thang vao the manh nhat eua Trung Qudc la kinh te nham lam suy yeu siic manh tdng hpp ciia nudc nay.
Xu hudng tdp hgp luc lugng ngdn chgn Trung Quoc chua ro nel. Mac dii Nhat Ban, An Dp, Australia, Han Qudc va nbieu qudc gia khac deu CO ebung mong mudn ngan chan chinh sach "dpc chiem bien Ddng" ciia Trung Qudc, song cac nudc theo dudi nhirng chinh sach chua ddng nhat, trong khi deu bi tac ddng khdng nhd bdi lpi ich kinh te va chinh trj trong quan he vdi Trung Qudc trong liic niem tin vao My cd phan giam sill bdi nliung chinh sach m i m ydu cua Obama va that thu'dng, kbd djnli doan cua Trump. Dilm sang dupc chd dpi va ky vpng nhidu nhat hien nay la IPS vdi sy lien minh "Hi giac kim cudng"
My - Nhat Ban - Australia - An Dp dugc cho ia cd the kiem tda sy anh budng ciia Trung Qudc tai khu vuc. Tuy nhien, chiln lupc nay vin chua thyc su rd rang va gay ra nhiing quan ngai vl mirc dp kha thi cung nhu ngudn luc dl triln khai trong thyc td. Trong khi dd, quan he tam giac My - Trung - Nga tilp tyc tao eo bdi chiln luge cho Trung Qudc, di ngugc lai y mudn ciia ca tdng thdng Nga va My.
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B i l n Dong trong cue dien m d j Dang chii y, tai khu vyc nay, den nay van chua
cd duge mdt khudn khd, co che nao cd tinh rang budc trong hop tac an ninh va dieu nay khien cho Trung Qudc hay bat cir nudc Idn nao cung dupc ty do ap dat lpi ich cua minb, bd qua lpi ich ciia nudc nhd. Thyc te, trong thdi gian vita qua, Trung Qudc da ngang nhien cai tao va thay ddi thyc dia tai bien Ddng ma khdng gap phai hanh ddng ngan chan thyc te nao. Day la diem yeu nhat, khien cho bien Ddng luc nao eung d tinb trang cang thang va rat khd dy bao.
1.3. Ddu hdi ldn ve vai tro "trung tdm " cda ASEAN
ASEAN dang bi chia re sdu sdc trong vdn de bien Dong, theo hudng co Igi cho Trung Quoc. Tir sau Hiep nghi Bd trudng Ngoai giao lan tbii 45 - AMM 45 Phnom Penh, thang 7/2012) den nay, cac nude ASEAN da gap be tac, khdng the dua ra dugc tuyen bd chung ve van de bien Ddng.
Campuchia tilp tyc the hien thai dp thyc dung, ngan can dua bien Ddng vao cac van kien eua ASEAN. Sy "dao chieu" trong chinh sach ciia Philippines dudi thdi Tdng thdng Duterte mang den cho Trung Qudc mdt Igi the to ldn trong viec vd hieu hda nhat thdi Phan quyet cua Tda Trpng tai, lam qudc Id mat ddng lye tap hop lyc lugng va day Viet Nam vao the phai "di dau". Su thay ddi chinh sach theo hudng lay long Trung Qudc ciia Lao trong thdi gian gan day ciing gdp phan lam suy giam tieng ndi thdng nhat, manh me ciia ASEAN ddi vdi su banh trudng ciia Trung Qudc tai bien Ddng. Anh hudng ciia ASEAN giam siit khdng nhd trong vai trd "trung tam", diem tua tap hgp du luan va lyc lugng qudc te ngan chan Trung Qudc. My va ddng minh ciing thieu chd dya de trien khai mdt chinh sach ciing ran ban vdi Trung Qudc.
Nguyen nhan co ban cua tinh trang tren la do Igi ich ciia mdi qudc gia d bien Ddng khdng gidng nhau va cac nudc ASEAN ngay cang le thude nhieu hon vao Trung Qudc vi nhu cau phat trien kinh te va ung hd ve chinh trj. Tai Campuchia, Trung Qudc la ddi tac kinh te va nha
"lai trp" ldn nhat tren mpi mat. Tinh rieng nam 2016, Trung Qudc dau tu vao Campuchia 1,08 ty USD, chiem 30% tdng FDI, trong khi ca My va Nhat Ban ciing chi dat 940 trieu USD. Nam 2017, Trung Qudc da tai trp cho Dang Nhan dan Campuchia - CPP 3,6 ty nhan dan te, tuong duong 600 trieu USD de phuc vu bau cir cac cap, cd y nghTa rat quan trpng trong ket qua cudc bau cir vira qua (Pheakdey Heng, Enrich Institute, 2018). Tai Philippines, Tdng thdng Duterte len nam quyen trong tinh the kinh te het siic sa siit va dat nudc lao vao "cudc cbien chdng ma tiiy"
khde liet trong khi chinh sach ciia My thi hd hiing, ddng thdi lai cdng kich gay gat ehinh sach chdng ma tiiy cua Duterte, la mpt nguyen nhan day Chinb quyen Duterte hudng sang Trung Qudc. Lao van la mdt nudc cd nen kinh te phat trien cham, cbinh sach "binh ae quy ciia khu vyc"
gap pbai su phan ddi cua gidi chuyen gia mdi trudng qudc te. Lao dya vao Trung Qudc, iing hp BRI va tim kiem vai trd ndi Trung Qudc vdi Nam bien Ddng, xem Trung Qudc la chd dya chien lupc de thyc hien cac myc lieu phat trien cua minh. Sy chia re va phan hda trong ndi bp ASEAN ddi vdi van de bien Ddng se cho phep Trung Qudc de dang tien hanb cac thda hiep song phuong theo hudng cd lpi hoan toan cho Trung Qudc nhu budc cac nudc ASEAN phai nhupng bd, khdng iing bd lap trudng cua My tai bien Ddng hay khdng dua cac tranh chap ra cac co che tai phan qudc Id.
Trung Quoc vo hieu hoa ngdn hgn Phdn quyet cua Toa Trgng tdi ve vu kien cua Philippines, chi phdi tiin trinh ddm phdn Bo quy tdc irng xir d hiin Dong (COC). Tan dyng tdi da su thay ddi tu Philippines, Trung Qudc ngan chan thanh cdng xu thi tap hgp lyc lugng chdng Trung Qudc le ra phai cd tir Phan quyet tren. Duterte la nhan td bat ngd ngay ca vdi Trung Qudc, va ciing vdi su "co lai" dot ngpt tai My, da gay bien ddng nhanh chdng ddi vdi eye dien bien Ddng. Trung Qudc da tan dyng thdi co tiep tuc ap dat cd hieu qua
"chii quyln dudng ludi bd" thdng qua cac boat ddng qudc phdng, kinh t l va tuyen truyen, ngoai
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Bien Bong trong cue dien mdi OdLeCIn giao, phap ly gan vdi "Tu Sa", "ban dd chii U
lien nef \ Cho den nay, du luan qudc te chua ed dupc phan img nao cd tinb phdi hpp, dii manh d l phan bac lap luan sai trai ciia Trung Qudc. Trung Qudc tiep tuc lan sau vao viing bien ciia cac nudc thara gia tranh chap.
Tien trinh dam phan COC ciing hudng sang chieu chil ddng theo y do ciia Trung Qudc. Tir chd tim each ngan chan, Trung Qudc timg budc chuyen hudng sang chii ddng thiic day xay dung COC de Idng ghep cac Igi ich ciia minh vao van ban, ngan chan sy can dy cua My cung nhu cac nudc ldn khac va chi pbdi ASEAN. Phia Trung Qudc da de nghi dua vao dieu khoan cam cac qudc gia ngoai khu vyc tham dd, khai tbac dau kbi d bien Ddng va khdng lien hanh cac eude tap Iran chung vdi cac cudng qudc ngoai khu vyc trii' khi cac ben cimg ddng y'. Nam 2018 dam phan COC ghi nhan budc lien Idn vdi viec tbdng nhat dupc van ban dam phan don nhat, tuy nhien vdi nhiing ndi dung rd ri ve nhiing yeu cau ma Trung Qudc dat ra cho COC thi neu cd dupc boan tat vao nam 2021, mpt COC nbu the cd khi lai la rat bat lpi cho trien vpng an ninh khu vuc.
2. Lu:,a chpn chien lu'o'c cua Viet Nam Cyc dien tren dudng nhu dang pbac hpa ra mpt biic tranh kha am dam tren cac mat ddi vdi Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, nhin ky hon, cd the nhan tbay co hdi ciing rat dang ke. Van de la co hdi dd cd dugc bien thanh sire manh thyc te bay khdng se phu thudc chil yeu vao tam chien lupc ciia nhirng lya chpn chinh sach.
2.1. Buc tranh am dam
Ve an ninh, BRI eo the ddt Viet Nam vdo the bi kep giira mdt ben la Me Cdng qua hgp tac
"Vanh dai" vdi cac "nudc ASEAN lyc dja" va mdt ben la bien Ddng qua hpp tac "Con dudng"
vdi cac nu'dc "ASEAN bien dao". Cac chuang trinh hgp tac ciia Trung Qudc tai khu vyc ldn hem nhieu so vdi sang kien hgp tac nhd le ciia My va Phuong Tay, trong do dang ehii y nliat la Hgp tac Me Cdng - Lan Thuong (MLC). Hien nay, lai
Tidu vimg cd 11 co chl hgp tac, gdm bdn co che hgp tac ndi Tieu viing va bay co che hop tac voi ddi tac ben ngoai. Kit qua so sanh cho thay ve so lugng CO chl hpp tac ciia ddi tac, Trung Qudc tham gia ba trong sd bay co chl, cdn lai. My, Nhat Ban, An Dp, Han Qudc mdi nudc tham gia mdt CO che hgp tac vdi Tiiu viing; ve kinh te, Trung Qudc dua ra cam kit dSu tu va hd trg cho Tieu vimg la 27,2 ty USD, cdn bdn nudc Nhat Ban, My, Han Qudc, An Dp cam ket sd vdn la 16,8 ty USD (cbi b&ng 61,8% so vdi Trung Qudc). Hpp tac MLC phat triln rdt nhanh, trong kbi cac sang kien hgp tac khac gan nhu khdng co nhieu lien trien. Cd Ihl thdy, Trung Qudc dang gianh nhieu thanh tyu trong kiem soat Ddng Nam A thdng qua "hai gpng kim", vira chia cat dupc "Ddng Nam A lyc dia" vdi "Ddng Nam A bien dao", vira chia re cac nudc ASEAN dya tren nhirng cbinb sach rieng re vdi timg nudc. Nhirng toan tinh ciia Trung Qudc dugc lien banh tren co sd Igi dyng uu the vugt trpi ve kinh te, quan sy de gay sire ep va ap dat trong tirng mdi quan he song phuang, ngan chan mpi tap hpp lyc lupng do ASEAN Iam "trung tam". Cue dien do cd thi day Viet Nam vao the mac ket rat khd thoat ra.
Ve kinh le, Viet Nam dgng chiu dnh hudng nhieu (ir Trung Qudc Nam 2017, Viet Nam dat thang du mau dich vdi My la 32,4 ty USD va tham hut vdi Trung Qudc la 22,7 ty USD, song triln vpng cd the kem kha quan han bdi trong liic My chil truong theo duoi cac chinh sach bao hd thuong mai, riit khdi TPP, phat ddng "chien tranh thuang mai" nham vao cac nudc cd thang du mau dich thi Trung Qudc lai dang ldp ddy khoang ffdng ciia M y d e lai, triln khai quylt liet BRI, tang cudng dau tu va thuong mai d khu vyc Ddng Nam A, trong dd co y i e t Nam. Tinh trang nay keo dai se khien cho nln kinh Id Viet Nam phai ddi mat voi riii ro khi cd thi bj le thupc nhilu hon vao vdn dau tu, thi trudng va cdng nghe ciia Trung'Qudc cung nhu nguy ca trd thanh thj trudng nhap khdu cac thiet bj, day chuyin cdng nghe lac hau ctia quoc gia lang gilng nay.
' Nguyin Dang Thiing. Ddm phdn COC Mot so cdu hoi ban ddu. Tap chi Nghien ciiii Quoc le, Hpc vien Ngoai giao, s6 3 (110).
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0 6 Le Chi Bien Dong trong cue dien mdi Khdng gian kinh te bien ciia Viet Nam bj tbu
hep khi gap klid khan hon trong trien khai cac lpi ich kinh tl cdt loi tren bien trudc chinh sach ngan can Cling ran ciia Trung Qudc trong pham vi "chu quyln dudng luai bd". Cac boat ddng ngan can eua Trung Qudc ngay cang tang, ngay cang ap sat vao bd biln cua Viet Nam. Trong khi dd, dau tu ciia Trung Qudc vao nude ta tiep lyc tang, gay nen nhimg lo ngai sau s4c va cd that ve he qua tieu eye ddi vdi kha nang ddc lap va ben viing ciia kinh le nudc nha.
Ve chinh tri, Viet Nam co the rot vdo the kho khdn trong tdp hop su ung hd cua qudc te ddu ti-anh vdi Trung Qudc. Ndi bd ASEAN hi chia re trong ehinh sach ddi vdi Trung Qudc, dac biet la ve vdn de bien Ddng, lam giam miic dp ddng thuan timg ed trudc cac yeu sach va hanh ddng phi phap cua Trung Qudc tai bien Ddng. My va ba ddi tae trong "bd hi" chua thdng nhat trong chien lupc ddi phd vdi Tmng Qudc. Viet Nam ciing ludn gap trd ngai khi mudn tbiet lap quan he hgp tac chien luoc sau sdc ban va thuc chat han vdi cac nudc thudc
"bp tii" trudc phan irng cua Trung Qudc, va viee tap hpp luc lupng qudc te img hd lpi ich cua Viet Nam d bien Ddng gap nhieu khd khan. Trong khi dd, vdi xu hudng hien nay, Trung Qudc se ed the tiep tuc tang cudng dupc anh hudng dang chii y ddi vdi mpt sd nudc lang gieng ke can ciia Viet Nam.
Van de bien Ddng ciing ludn rat nhay cam, de bj chinh trj boa va kich ddng thanh phan img cyc doan khd kiem soat. Tbdi gian qua da xay ra nhieu vy viec cd the gay mat trat ty xa hdi va cd the trd thanh yeu td gay mat an ninh tai Viet Nam do phan iing cyc doan ciia mpt bd phan ngudi danva sy lpi dung, kich dpng chdng pha ciia cac the lyc thil dich, phan ddng luu vong.
2.2. Co' hpi vd lua chpn chinh sdch Mpi thu deu cd hai mat. Trong cyc dien tren, Tmng Qudc dang cd lpi the Idn ve chien thuat, nhung lai limg budc bat Igi bon ve chien iugc trudc xu hudng tap hpp lyc lupng do My dan dat dang dan djnh hinh rd ban. Canh tranh chien lupc nudc ldn, trung tam la My - Trung, lam cho Ddng Nam
A/ASEAN trd nen quan trpng ban rat nhieu; va vdi vi tri la cau ndi tren dat lien giua phan ldn nhat ciia lyc dja A. Au vdi khu vyc Ddng Nam A, Viet Nam ed rapt vj tri dja - chien luge khdng the thay the trong Idiu vyc. De tan dung ldi da uu the ciia minli, Viet Nam hoaeh dinh va thyc thi mdt chinh sach phil hgp, trong do can dae biet luu y den mdt hai diem:
Thir nhat, cdn xdc dinh ro phgm vi hgp phdp cita cdc khdi mem "chit quyen" vd "todn ven ldnh thd " tgi bien Ddng de lua chon nhung cdch (hiic ddu tranh phii hgp. Phan quyet ciia Tda Trpng tai bac bd ro rang "chii quyen dudng luoi bd" cua Trung Qudc, nhung ciing xac lap nhung gidi ban phap ly ddi vdi cae thyc the tai Trudng Sa. Dang ehii y, phan quyet coi cac cau true d Trudng Sa la cac thyc the rieng le, am chi la khdng ldn lai mdt quan dao Trudng Sa, vi the cung gian tiep bac bd chil quyen cua bat cir ben nao ddi vdi loan bd quan dao nay. Cac eau true d Trudng Sa cung khdng dupc hudng quy die "them luc dja" hay "vimg dac quyen kinh te", va ehi dupc hudng "chii quyen" lanh hai tdi da la 12 hai ly. Ngoai ra, Phan quyet cung khdng de cap gi den quan dao Hoang Sa vi nd khdng cd trong phara vi vu kien ciia Philippines, ciing ed the hieu rang cdn chua cd mdt CO sd pbap ly rang bupc Trung Qudc d Hoang Sa nhu da cd vdi Trudng Sa (S. Jayakumarr, 2018). Tdt nhien, Phan quyet ciing cd the dupe xem la an Id de qudc te sir dung dau tranh vdi Trung Qudc trong trudng hpp Hoang Sa. Dieu nay tat nhien ciing se lac ddng ddi vdi cac tuyen bd chil quyen ciia tat ca cac nudc ddi vdi bien Ddng va la dien biln ma Viet Nam can tinh tdi trong tim kilra sy iing hp cua du luan qudc te nham bao ve cd hieu qua chu quyen cua minh tai bien Ddng.
Thd- hai, cdn chu dong khai thdc tiem ndng dig - chiin luac ddc thu. bien no (hdnh site mgnh thuc ti. Vdi uu thi dac biel va truyen tbdng ddc lap rieng cd d khu vyc, Viet Nara cd siic hut manh me doi vdi tdt ca nudc ldn va hp sin sang ddu tu ldn dd tim cho dirng tai dai dat nay. Cac cang nudc sau d mien Trung tiera an siic manh to Idn v l kinb t l . quan sy ddi vdi loan khu vyc.
Nlldng vin di KINH i t VA CHINH TRj T H ^ G i a i So 3(275) 2019 - 57
Biln Song trong cue dien mpi Q^ Le Chi va chiing cung la muc tieu c k tranh thu, hgp tac Viet Nam la qu5c gia duy nhdt tai Dong Nam hang dau trong tat ca cac chiln luge nuoc Ign, A/trong ASEAN dugc huong Igi thS viia la qu6c dac biet la My va Trung Quoc. Chiing co thi lam gia i^ jia^ ^i,^ | j ^ ^ j ^ ^^^ an ngii biJn D6ng.
diem trung chuyen quan trpng nhat cho cac con g ^ | j ^ g , ,„; , ^ | ^<, ,^ , ^ ^. ^ j j , ^ a m bao ve dutnig lien ket, phat tnen kmh te theo true Bac - ^. p ^ . , ^^^ ^^^^ , ^ ,^^ .^ ' ^ ^ ^ ^^.^ b6n Nam cua BRI va true D d n g - T a y ciia IPS. Chiing - -^ , . , , ' , , . . ; - 42v,;sv>
, , j , > . , - ~ \ ' ,~ ,•' ^ ~ vung. Tuy nhien, canh cira giai quyet van de bien cung CO the la diem den cua nhung cbiec tau quan T^. , . , ^ , • . • • . / - * XT.,™
, . , i , •- - • f . j ; , , . Dong duong nbu dang hep dan voi Viet Nara.
su lon nhat men nay eua moi quoc gia de bao ve ^ . , , , , , - a .r ; , • ,
• , . . , • ; . : ' . u 1^1,- ' A-' Tinh hinh thay doi ddi hdi Viet Nam can CO cach eho loi ich quoc gia eua mmh. Khong co dia • , , dilm nao thuan tien hon, hieu qua hon cho ho xet ^"S' "gl^' '**'=• <=*'^.'' h ^ h dong khae de co the tren nhiSu khia canh. ^^° * ™ '<?' '^"^ 1™^ Si<^ 'r™ t i e n Dong*
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Harmah Beech (2018): China 's Sea Control is a done deal, "short of war with (he U.S", the Newyork times online, 20/9. bltps://www.nytimes.eom/2018/09/20/world/asja/soulh- china-sea-navy.html
2. https://vAvw.statista.com/slatistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in- china/
3. Mark J.Valeneia (2017): Are US FONOPs in the South China Sea necessaryl, the Diplomat, 28/20, https://wvAv.thediplomat.com/2017/10/are-us-fonops-in-the-south- china-sea-necessary/.
4. Megan Speeia and Mikko Takkunen (2018): South China Sea Photos suggest a militgry building spree by Beijing, the New York Times online, 08/02, https://www.nytimes.coni/2018/02/08/world/asiaysouth-cbina-seas-photos.html
5. Nguyen Dang Thang: Ddm phdn COC: Mpt sd cdu hdi ban ddu. Tap chi Nghien cim Qudc te, Hpc vien Ngoai giao, sd 3 (110).
6. Pheakdey Heng, Enrich Institute (2018): Are China's gift a blessing or a curse for Combodia, East Asia Forum, 29/8. htip://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/08/29/are-chinas- gifts-a-blessing-or-a-curse-for-cambodia.
7. S. Jayakumar (2018): The South China Sea Arbitration - the legal dimesion, NUS Centre for Intemational Law series, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Tiiong tin ldc gid:
NCS. OO LE CHi Hoc vien Ngoai giao Entail: lechi02%yahoo.com
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