TAC DONG cun BRCXIT D€N XU HUONG CUfl DONG VON FDI VAO VICT NflM
Biii Quy Thuan Do Hu'cng Lan
Tom tat: Trong bdi cdnh todn cdu hda vd hdi nhdp kinh ti cua Viet Nam, viec tdng cu&ng thu hut vdn ddu tie tie cdc ddi tdc l&n nhu Nhgt Bdn, Hdn Qudc, Singapore, Hoa Ky, EU... dang duo'c Viet Nam uu tiin trong chien luac thu hut vdn FDI thi hi mdi. Trong do, EU la mdt trong cdc ddi tdc quan trong, b&i le EU Id mot thi tru&ng l&n gdm nhieu quoc gia cd nin kinh ti phdt triin nhdt thi gi&i, cd su dnh huang l&n ddi ven Idnh ti todn cdu vd cd nhiiu nhd ddu tu tiim ndng. Sau khi hiep dinh EVFTA da kit time ddm phdn m& ra nhiiu ca hdi cho cdc nhd ddu tu tie cdc qudc gia EU vdo Viet Nam. Tuy nhiin, Anh r&i Liin minh Chdu Au ddn din nhiing xao trdn, biin ddng Icm vi chinh tri, kinh ti, xd hgi cua nu&c Anh vd chdu Au, qua dd cd tdc ddng l&n din xu hu&ng ddu tu ciia cdc qudc gia chdu Au ra nuac ngodi.
Bdi viet su dung phuang phdp tdng hap, phdn tich vd ddnh gid thuc trgng vd tdc ddng cua Brexit t&i xu hu&ng ciia ddng vdn FDI vdo Viet Nam trong th&i gian tai.
Jix khoa: Brexit, ddng vdn FDI, Viet Nam
Abstract: In the context of globalization and economic integration of Vietnam, increasing investment attraction from major partners such as Japan, Korea, Singapore, the United States, EU... is being prioritized by Vietnam in the new generation FDI strategy. In particular, the European Union is an important partner, because the EU is a big market including developed economies in the world, EUhas a great influence on the whole economy and potential investors. After the EVFTA ended the negotiations, opportunities are opened for investors from European Union to investment into Vietnam. However, the UK exit the European Union leading to political, economic and social fluctuations in the UK and Europe, there affect directly European countries to invest abroad. The article uses the method of synthesizing, analyzing and assessing the impact of Brexit on the trend of FDI inflows into Vietnam in the coming time.
Key words: Brexit, FDI flow, Vietnam
* NCS, Hgc vien Chinh sach va Phat trien
** PGS.TS, T r u d n g Dai hgc Kinh t l Qu6c dan Nhgn bdi ngdy: 30/5/2019
Phdn biin xong 5/6/2019 Chdp nhdn ddng 15/6/2019
<Ja& Mng. eua '^peadt... 125
1. Stf kien Brexit va anh hiromg cua Brexit din dong v6n diiu tu- ra nuo-c ngoai cua cac qu6c gia chau Au
Lich su cua mdi quan he giiia Anh va cac tbanh vien cua EEC (tiln than cua EU) c6 nhilu thang ttdm. Sau nhiing ttac ttd de chinh thiic ttd tbanh tbanh vien EEC nam 1973, nam 1975 ngudi dan Vuong qudc Anh da tham gia cugc tnmg cau dan y dau tien ve viec ra di bay d lai Lien minb nay. Nam 1990 Anh tham gia vao he thdng tiln te chau Au vdi myc tieu dn dinh ti gia hdi doai cd djnh ttong toan khoi song din nam 1992 Anb da nit khdi he thdng nay, sau cudc kbiing khoang ddng bang Anb. Nam 1995, Anb cung -tir chdi tham gia hiep udc Schengen ve ty do di lai giiia cac nudc tbanh vien ciing nhu kbdng sir dyng ddng tien chung cbau Au Euro vao nam 2000. Nam 2008, khiing hoang tai cbinh toan can bat ngudn tir vay ng dudi chudn cua Hoa Ky va tiep dd la cudc khiing hoang ng cdng cua chau Au bat ngudn ttr Hy Lap nam 2010, Anh tir cbdi ky hiep udc vl tai khda va ngan sach do EU dua ra nam 2011 nhdm khdc phuc mgt sd van de tai chinh ma chinb nudc nay gap phai.
Trong nhilu ldn tidn banh cude tbam dd y kiln ttr nam 2010, ngudi dan Anh cbo thdy hp cd sy phan bda trong viec ra di bay d lai EU. Ngay 23/06/2016, gdn 46,5 ttieu cir tri Anh qudc da di bd philu ttong cugc trung cdu dan y ra di hay d lai EU, mdt con sd cao chua timg cd. Kit qua la 51,89% sd ngudi lya chpn ra di, 48,11% chgn d lai. Nbu vay, sau bin thap ky gdn bd vdi EU, viec Anb
chgn lya ra di khdng cbi la mdt sy thay ddi ldn ve kinb te, ma cdn la mdt cugc each mang ve chien luge va dia chinh tri d EU.
Ngudi Anh dang phan iing trudc mgt cugc kbiing hoang chau Au ve co cau - khdng cbi dan tbuan bat ngudn tir tbuong raai, ma cdn cd can nguyen ve dia chinb tri va cbien luge.
Cd nhieu nguyen nhan dan den quyet dinb ly khai khdi EU cua ngudi dan Vuong quoc Anh, song kbdng the pbii nhan nguyen nhan vl kinh tl thuong mai. Sy ung hg cua ngudi dan Anh rdi khdi EU bde Id mau thuan giiia lgi ich va cbii quyen ttong chau Au.
Anb la qudc gia ddng gdp ldn cho ngan sach EU (nam 2015 ddng gdp 13 ti bang), nbung EU "rdt Iai" cbo bg khdng nhieu (khoang 4,5 ti bang trong nam 2015) dan den nhiing y kiln rdng khoan ddng gdp nay qua cao va khdng edn thilt. Nhilu cir tii Anh cho rdng, rdi kbdi EU se tilt kiem hang ti USD pbai ddng gdp cho EU, Anb se khdng pbai lo lang qua nbilu vl thul giao dich tai chinb; thoat ra khdi cac quy dinh tai chinb, ciing nhu sy ean thiep cbinh tri cua EU dl tiiiic ddy tiln trinb ty do hda tbuong mai. Anh se gianh lai quyln kilm soat cac ttiyin bien gidi, giai phdng cac doanh nghiep vira va nhd khdi cac quy dinb khdt khe ciia EU...
Song cdn nbin nban ro tbyc trang la thuang mai ciia Anb ngay cang pbu tbudc vao EU, 12,6% GDP cua Anh cd Hen quan din hoat dgng xudt khau sang cac nudc tbanh vien cbau Au, ttong kbi cbi cd khoang 3,1% GDP cua 27 qudc gia tbanh vien khac cd lien quan din xudt khdu vao Anh. Den
126 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N''6(225|.2019
nam 2017, EU chi6m 44,5% kim ngach xuat kim ngach nhap khju, tuong duong 341 ti khau, tirong duong 274 ti bang, va 53,1% bang cua Anh
Bang 1: Kim ngach xu&t nhap khdu cuaAnh vU cac nu-fic EU va ngoai EU nam 2017
EU Ngoai EU Tong cong
Xuat khau
Gia tri (ti bang)
274 341,9 615,9
Ti trpng
(%)
44,5%
55,5%
100%
Nhap khau
Gia tri (ti bdng) 341 300,8 641,8
Ti trong
(%)
53,1%
46,9%
100%
Can can thuong mai
(ti bang)
- 7 41,1 - 5 , 9 Ngudn: Thdng ki thuang mgi Anh - EU, Matthew Ward, 2019
Anh Cling la dilm din hang ddu ddi vdi kinb t l hgi nhap hien nay khdng pbai la thue cac nha ddu tu true tilp nudc ngoai (FDI) bdi quan ma la cac bien phap phi tbue quan nhu nbilu nguyen nhan. Thie nhdt, thi trudng lao khae biet ve cac tieu chuan va cac quy dinh ddng linh boat khdng cd cac rao can tiep can giiia cac qudc gia. Neu khdng phai la thanh vdi tbi trudng chung chau Au. Thic hai, quy vien ciia EU, Anh se mat di rat nhieu sue hap md thi trudng cua Anh la yeu td quyet dinh dan ddi vdi cac nha dau tu mudn Igi dung thu hut cae tbanb vien EU. Nbu da biet, rao Anb de tiep can tbi trudng chung ehau Au.
can ldn nbat ddi vdi cac nba dau tu ttong nen
Bang 2: Ddu tir true tiep nir&c ngodigifra Anh vd EU27
E U 2 7 Anh
Dong vfln Vao
Ti Euro
3,7 -73
%
GDP 0%
- 2 , 8 %
Ra Ti Euro
-73 3,7
% GDP
- 0,6%
0,1%
Co phan Vao
Ti Euro
683 985
% GDP
5,6%
38,2%
Ra Ti Euro
985 683
% GDP
8,1%
26,5%
Ngudn: Eurostat
<Jde dsng. eua (Breseil...
ni
Theo VEPR (2016)', Vdn dau ttr FDI vao Anh dat 1.034,3 ti bang Anh ttong dd tu cac nudc EU dat 495,8 ti GBP, cbilm 47,9%o tdng vdn ddu ttr FDI vao Anb. Tuy nbien, lugng vdn FDI bang nam tir EU vao Anb da giam manh trong nbiing nam gan day tir miic tmng bmh 50,1% trong giai doan 2005-2009 xudng cdn khoang 48% giai doan 2010- 2016. Cac nha ddu ttr nudc ngoai dau ttr vao Anh vdi myc tieu cbinh la tiep can tbi trudng EU. Khi sy kien Brexit xay ra cung vdi viec dam phan giiia Anh va EU van cdn la mgt an sd thi viec tilp can EU thdng qua thi trudng Anh ttd nen kbdng chac cban. Do vay, lugng vdn ddu tu' vao nude Anh nhieu kha nang se giam mdt phan do cac nba dau tu lo ngai ve tuong lai bat dinh cua mdi quan he giii'a Anb vaEUthdi gian tdi.
McGrattan, Ellen R. va Andrea Waddle (2017)^, trong nghien eim vi dnh hu&ng cua Brexit ddi v&i FDI cua khu vuc chdu Au, da phan tich va danh gia tac dgng ciia cugc trung cau dan y ngay 23/6/2016 tren cac phuong tien truyen thdng dia phuong d Anh thdi ky trudc khi ky ket cac dieu luat Anb rdi khdi Lien minh Chau Au. Kdt qua nghien ciiu cho thdy kba nang pbuc hdi ciia thi tnrdng chirng khoan tai London se la mdt kenh ldn dl thu hut FDI vao Anb trong giai
VEPR (2016), Ddnh gid nhanh vi dnh hudng ciia Brexit den kinb ti thi gi&i vd Vtet Nam, Bai thao luan chinh sach, CS - 12.
^ McGrattan, Ellen R., and Andrea Waddle (2017), The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production. No, w23217. National Bureau of E c o n o m i r RpsparfVi
doan tdi, day cd the coi la tbi tinidng ebiing khoan quan trgng nbat d cbau Au. Klii Anh rdi EU, dieu nay ddng ngbia vdi viec trung tam tai cbinh London se boat ddng ben ngoai Lien minb, dieu nay cd the cd tac ddng ldn ddi vdi FDI cua toan bd Lien minb Cbau Au, ma xu budng anb budng dugc dy bao la ddng vdn FDI vao EU cd the se giam, do vay ddng vdn FDI dau tu ra nudc ngoai cua EU cd the se dugc giam bat de dau tu vao chinh thi trudng ttong khu vuc. Ngbien ciru Brexit se ldm gidm ddu tu nuac ngodi vdo Anh nhu thi ndo vd nguyin nhdn cua Dbingra, Swati, Gianmarco IP Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson va John Van Reenen (2016) da cbi ra rang udc tinh mdt nii'a lugng FDI vao Anh thuoc v l cac nudc trong EU. Khi Anh kbdng cdn la thanh vien cua EU, ngudn vdn nay cd xu huong nit kbdi Anh de ttanh viec phai ddi mat vdi cac rao can thue quan va phi thue quan khi xudt kbau sang cac nudc thanh vien EU khac. Them vao do, khi kbdng cdn la thanh vien ciia EU, cac quy dmh ve di chuydn tbl nban giua Anb va cac thanh vien cdn lai ttong EU ciing se bi dieu cbinh tbeo hudng phiic tap hon hien nay. Dieu nay ciing se gay khd khan cho cac cdng ty trong viec thay doi vi tri cdng tac ciing nhu quan ly dilu banh chung, phat sinh them thii tuc va chi phi cho doanb ngbiep.
Nhu vay, sy kien Brexit se anh budng tdi ddng vdn ddu tu FDI ra nudc ngoai ciia cac nudc ttong kbdi EU, dac biet ddng vdn ddu tu vao Anb klii Anb khdng cdn la thanh vien ciia EU trong tuong lai.
128 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
1. Thurc trang dong von dau t u FDI cua EU vao Viet Nam
Tbu biit dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai la mdt trong nbung uu tien trong qua ttinh chuyen ddi nen kinh te va bdi nhap kinh te qudc te ciia Viet Nam ke ttr nam 1986, FDI ed vai ttd quan ttgng quan trgng va tbyc sy trd tbanh ddng luc phat trien kinh te cbu dao va ddng gdp vao tdc do tang trudng kinh te an tugng, tnmg binh d miic 6,5%i-^7%i/nam cua Viet Nam trong bon mgt thap ky qua.
Trong nhirng nam qua, Viet Nam da cd nhieu thay ddi Idn ve chinh sach ddi vdi khu vye FDI, da va dang tbu but lugng Idn vdn FDI.
Ke tir khi quan be ngoai giao Lien minh Cbau Au va Viet Nam dugc thiet lap tir thang 10 nam 1990, Viet Nam da trd tbanh mgt ttong nbiing ddi tac cbinh cua EU tai khu vye Ddng Nam A. EU la nha dau tu ldn, cd trinb do cong nghe cao va la ddi tac quan trpng ciia Viet Nam. Pham vi hgp tac song phuang ttai rgng khap cac ITnb vye, tir cac van de cbinh tri, cac thach thiic mang tinh toan cau tdi thuong mai va phat trien. Song dil EU la nha dau tu Idn chi dung sau cac nudc: Han Qudc, Nhat Ban, Singapore va Dai Loan va sdm cd mat tai Viet Nam nbung den nay dau tu cua EU vao Viet Nam cbua tuong xiing vdi tiem nang va trien vgng quan be ddi tac giiia hai ben.
Vdn ddu tu cua EU giai dogn 1990- 2000: Theo sd Heu tir Cue Dau tu nudc
ngoai^ trong vdng gan 10 nam, so du an dang ky cua cac nudc chau Au vao Viet Nam da tang gdp nhilu lan, tir 15 du an cap mdi vao nam 1990 len 107 vao nam 1995 va 105 vao nam 1996; ttong dd mdt sd lugng ldn dy an ddu tu vao nganh dich vy vdi tdng sd dy an (tinh din bit nam 1995) len tdi con sd 117 trong khi ddu tu vao cdng ngbiep nbe va cdng ngbiep nang tuong duong nhau vdi khoang ban 60 du an. Lugng von FDI dang ky tbeo dd cung tang manb, vdn dang ky FDI cua cbau Au tang tii 186.959 hieu USD nam 1988 len 2,24 ti USD nam 1997. Trong khi dd, vdn dang ky tir EU ciing tang tir 166.960 trieu USD len 1,098 ti USD vao nam 1997.
Nhiing nam 2000 danh dau su gia tang dot bien va vai trd quan trgng cua FDI tir Ha Lan ddi vdi Viet Nam, ludng FDI tir nudc nay tang len tdi 20%> tdng vdn dau tu tryc tiep, trong kbi do FDI dang ky tir Anb ciing gia tang. Ludng vdn tir bai nudc nay khien cbo tdng dau tu eua khu vye cbau Au ndi chung Cling nbu tir EU vao Viet Nam khac hoar toan so vdi sut giam dau tu ctia khu vye na) tren the gidi va khien cbo EU trd tbanh nhi dau tu quan trgng cua Viet Nam vdi ti le vdr khoang 38% tdng gia tri vdn FDI dang ky Trong giai doan nay, vdn dau tu tir cbau Ai cbu ylu tap trung vao cac nganh cong ngbiej va xay dyng, vdn dau tu liiy ke vao ngant cdng nghiep dau khi (d giai doan nay cbi ylu la khai thac dau tho) van ldn ban nbili so vdi vdn liiy ke vao cac nganh cdng ngbie]
^ Cue ddu Dau tir nuac ngoai, Tinh hinb ihu hut dau t\
nudc ngoai luy ke den 2018, Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu.
Qde d^n^ eua lireaeit... 129
khac. Hon nira, neu nbiing nam dau thap nien 1990, ti le sd du an va lugng vdn dau tu vao cac nganh cdng nghiep nang va cdng nghiep nhe kha tuong duong nhau tbi cho din nbiing nam 2000, lugng vdn dau tu' vao cac nganh cdng nghiep nang ldn hon dang ke. Dilu nay cbo thay vdn cua khu vye cbau Au ttong giai doan nay chuyen budng tir nhiing nganh cdng nghiep nhe, ma cbu yeu la tham dung lao ddng ddi vdi trudng bgp cua Viet Nam ttong khoang tbdi gian tuong img, sang cac nganh cdng nghiep nang tham dyng von. Vdn FDI tir chau Au cd vai ttd bet siic quan ttgng trong phat trien cac nganh cdng nghiep dau khi va dich vu vdi ti trgng dy an mdi dang ky ciing nhu ti trgng vdn cua chau luc nay tuong ddi cao: sd dy an trong nganb dau khi chiem xap xi 60% tdng sd dy an FDI vao Viet Nam ttong khi ddi vdi nganh dich vu cung khoang 30%. Chi tiet hon ttong cac nganh dich vy, FDI tir chau Au cd ddng gdp dac biet quan ttgng doi vdi cac nganb giao thdng van tai va buu dien, khach san va du lich vdi ti ttgng vdn cbo nbiing nganh nay ttong khu vye FDI giai doan ddu 1988-1993 khoang 50% va trung binh ca giai doan 1988-2004 khoang 42%-43%, ttong khi dd FDI vao cac nganh dich vy the manh cua nhieu nudc chau Au nbu tai cbinh ngan hang lai chi khoang 6% tdng FDI vao nganb nay.
- Vdn ddu tu ciia EU giai dogn 2001 — nay: Trong khi vdn dang ky tir cac nudc khac vao Viet Nam tang cham tbi vdn tii' kbu vuc chau Au lai giam manh tiieo xu huang chung
dau tu ra the gidi cua ca khu vuc nay. FDI cua cbau Au vao Viet Nam tir cbilm tten 40% tdng FDI dang ky vao Viet Nam giai doan 1990-2000 giam xudng chi cdn 16,8%
giai doan 2002-2004, vdn FDI tii cbau Au sau do tang manb tir 190,6 trieu USD nam 2002 len miic 5,41 ti USD vao nam 2007.
Nam 2008, mac dii dau tu tir chau Au bat dau sut giam do suy thoai kinh te song FDI dang ki sang Viet Nam vdn tang 93,89% len 10,49 ti USD trudc khi syt giam manh nam 2009 va tang nbanb trd lai trong nam 2010.
Vdl lugng vdn cbi chiem cao nhat khoang 40% trong tdng FDI dang ky nhiing nam 2000-2004, song sd du an dau tu dn dinh va tuong ddi cao, khoang tir 50%o-70%) tdng sd dy an, quy md cac dy an dau tu' tii' khu vye chau Au ndi chung va tir cac nudc EU ndi rieng vao Viet Nam. FDI chau Au tai Viet Nam tbl bien rd nbilu khac biet vdi ca cau chung cua cac nudc, neu nhu dau tu FDI ndi ehung vao Viet Nam van chu yeu vao cac nganh cdng nghiep tbi vdn FDI tir kbu vye cbau Au da dich chuyen manh sang cac nganb dich vu. Ti ttgng vdn tbyc hien ttong nganb khai thac md va cdng nghiep che bien giam ldn lugt tir 26% va 5 1 % nam 2002 xudng 11,46% va 38,84% nam 2009 ttong khi ti ttgng vdn dau tu vao khu vye dich vy ttr mire xdp xi 2 3 % nam 2002 da len tdi gdn 50% nam 2009. Ti trgng vdn ddu tu vao nganb dich vu tang len cbu yeu vao cac hoat dgng Hen quan den kinh doanh tai san va dich vy tu vdn va giao due,... (nhirng nganb tbam dung tti thuc). Xu budng dich chuyin
130 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6{225).2019
ca cau vdn dau tu tbeo nganb d Viet Nam cua FDI tir cbau Au nhin chung phii hgp vdi xu hudng dau tu ra nudc ngoai cua EU. Xu hudng nay cd tac dgng tich cyc tdi chuyen dich CO cdu kinb t l cua Viet Nam tbeo dinh budng giam dan tl ttgng dau tu vao nganb cdng nghiep va chuyen dan sang cac nganh dich vy d chudi gia tti cao hon trong giai doan nay. Linh vye cdng nghiep cd vi tti quan trgng ttong co cau dau tu cua EU vao Viet Nam. Vdi lgi the ve cdng nghe va tai chinh, cac nha dau tu EU da mang tdi Viet Nam ky thuat hien dai va kinh nghiem quan ly tien tien, tap tnmg cbu yeu vao ITnh vye dien, dien tii, tin hgc, dtd va cdng nghe thye pham. Mgt loat cdng ty ldn cua cbau Au cd mat tai Viet Nam nhu Daimler Chrysler (Diic) trong ITnh vuc san xuat dtd, Unilever (Ha Lan) trong ITnh vuc nganh hang tieu diing, Electtolux (Thuy Dien) san xuat dd gia dung, IBC (Ha Lan) trong linh vye nudc giai khat, Akzo Nobel (Thyy Dien) ttong linb vuc phan bdn, hda chat, Bayer AG (Diic) ttong ITnb vye dugc pham.
- Vi hinh thiec ddu tu, neu nhu giai doan trudc nam 1997, hinb thirc dau tu cbu ylu la Hen doanh thi ke tir nbiing nam 1998 den 2004, binh thuc dau tu cua cac nba ddu tu cbau Au cbu yeu la tbanh lap mdi doanh nghiep 100% vdn FDI. Trong kbi dd, cac binh thirc dau tu khac van cbua phat ttiln, dieu nay dupe ly giai bdi viec tbyc bien Luat
Ddu tu nudc ngoai tbii hai vao nam 1996 va Luat Doanh nghiep nam 1999 vdi nbung quy dinh tiidng thoang ban ddi vdi viec tbanb lap doanh ngbiep 100%, von FDI. Tuong ty vdi CO cau ddu tti nay, sd lugng doanh ngbiep FDI tii chau Au cd 100% vdn nudc ngoai ttong cae nam ttr 2002 den 2010 cung cbilm ti ttgng Idn trong tdng sd doanb ngbiep FDI tir chau Au.
- vi dia bdn dau tu, cd the thay FDI tu cbau Au tap trung chii yeu d cac dia phuang cd till trucmg ldn nhu Ha Ngi, TP. Hd Chi Minh, hoac cac tinh cd ngudn tai nguyen dau kbi, hoae cac tinh cd khu cdng nghiep Idn nhu Binh Duong, Ddng Nai, Ba Ria - Viing Tau, Da Nang, Hai Phdng, Khanh Hda, Hai Duong. Tuy nbien sd lugng vdn dang ky dau tu vao TP. Hd Chi Minh va Ha Ndi van Idn hon ca. Sd du an dang ky tir nam 1990 den 2004 d hai dia phuang nay ian lugt la 353 va 175 dy an, vugt xa so vdi tinh cd tdng sd dy an cao tiep tbeo la Binh Duong vdi 114 dy an. Trong khi FDI vao cae nganh cdng nghiep dugc phan bd d nhilu tinh thi FDI vao cac nganh dich vy chi tap tnmg d Ha Ngi va tbanb phd Hd Chi Minh.
Trong thap ky vira qua, dau tu eiia EU tai Viet Nam mdi cbi dat 23,93 ti USD v l gia tri dau tu' vdi 2.133 dy an, EU ndm d vi tti tir thii 3 tdi thii 6 so vdi cac ddi tac FDI quan trpng khac cua Viet Nam trong boat dgng ddu ttr FDI.
<^d£ ddn^ eua (Betxil... 131
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6
Quoc gia thanh vien EU Ha Lan
Anh Phap Luxembourg Diic Cac nuoc khac Tong cong
S6 lirtrag du-an
318 525 340 47 304 598 2.133
Gia tri dan tu" luy k€
(trieu USD) 9.332,82 3.619,95 3.489,12 2.338,38 1.797,79 3.349,78 23.927,35 Ngudn: Cue Ddu tu nu&c ngodi, Bd Ke hogch vd Ddu tu.
Giai doan 2008-2018, cac nba dau tu EU CO mat tai 54/63 dia phuang ciia ca nudc, tap tmng chu yeu tai cac trung tam kinb te ldn va cac dia pbuong cd dieu kidn co sd ha tang thuan Igi nhu: TP. Ho Chi Minh, Ha Ngi, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Quang Ninh, Ddng Nai. TP, Hd Chi Minh tilp tuc diing thii nhdt ve tliu hiit du an cua kbdi EU vdi 799 dy an va 3,6 tt USD vdn ddu tu, ebilm 17,1% tdng vdn dang ky cua EU tai Viet Nam. Tiep den la Ha Ndi vdi 436 dy an va 3,6 ti USD vdn ddu ttr, cbilm 16,9% tdng vdn dang ky. Tbii
ba la Ba Ria-Viing Tau vdi 39 dy an vdi sd vdn dang ky la 2,6 ti USD von ddu tu, chilm 12,1%) tdng vdn dang ky.
Ve linh vuc ddu tu. hien nay dau tu ciia EU vao Viet Nam chii yeu tap trung vao cac nganb che tao va san xuat cdng nghiep (chiem 35%) ttong tdng sd vdn dau tu 23,93 ti USD), nganh san xuat dien ciing ddng vai trd quan ttgng, chiem 18%) ttong tdng vdn dau tu, EU ttd tbanh ddi tac FDI ldn nhat ngoai khu vye chau A ciia Viet Nam.
Hinh 1: FDI theo ngdnh cua EUvdo VietNam den ndm 2018
• San xuat, che tao cong nghiep
• San xuat va phan phdi dien
• Bat dgng san
• CNTT & ttTiyentbong
• Khai kboang
• Ban b u o n , b a n le oto, xe m a y
HKhac Ngudn: Cue Ddu tu nu&c ngodi, Bd Ki hogch vd Ddu tu
132 NGHIEN CCfU CHAU A u - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N''6(225).2019
2. Tac dong cua Brexit den dong von FDI vao Viet Nam
Cho den nay, thda tbuan Brexit van chua dugc Ha vien Anh thdng qua va EU da gia ban cbo Brexit din cudi thang 10/2019.
Brexit se cd nhiing tac ddng tdi kinb te Viet Nam thdng qua cac kenh tbuong mai va dau
Hinh 2: Tdng vdn ddu tu vd sd du dn cua mgt so qudc gia chdu Au vdo Viet Nam luy ki din 2017
tti. Tuy nbien, ddng vdn ddu ttr cua Anh vao Viet Nam la kbdng qua Idn, du Anh bien la nha ddu txx cbau Au ldn tbii hai (sau Ha Lan) va Anb la nha ddu tii diing tbu 15/126 qudc gia, vung lanh thd cd ddu tu tai Viet Nam vdi 336 du an cdn hieu lyc, tdng vdn dang ky la 3,6 ti USD.
(Tri^u USD)
Ngudn: Cue Ddu tu nu&c ngodi, Bd Ki hogch vd Ddu tu.
Vdn dau tu ciia cac nha dau tu Anh tap trung nhieu nbat trong ITnh vuc kinb doanb bat ddng san, chiem 46% vdi vdi 8 dy an cd tdng vdn dau tu dang ky 2,06 ti USD; linh vye cdng nghiep cbe bien, che tao diing thu
Hinh 3: Co cdu vdn ddu tir cua Anh phdn theo linh vuc vdo VietNam hai, chiem 3 1 % vdi 79 dy an, tdng vdn dau tu dang ky 1,37 ti USD; ITnb vye khai khoang diing thir 3, chiem 16%) vdi tdng vdn dangky 1,3 ti USD.
Ngudn: Cue Ddu tu nic&c ngodi, Bd Ki hogch vd Ddu tu.
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Khi Anh roi EU, tang tmong Icinh te cua tong von dang ky cua mot so qu6c gia o EU nuoc Anh du bao se giam, ti le thSt nghiep vao Viet Nam tinh den thai diSm 20/6/2016 tang len khoang 3% se keo theo tiet kiem va va 20/10/2017 dS IhSy dugc tac dong cua im tu giam, it nhiSu se anh huong dSn dong Brexit ddn diu tu' FDI ciia mot s5 d6i tac ion v6n tir Anh vao Viet Nam. Su kien Brexit cua EU vao Viet Nam.
di8n ra tit thang 6/2016, do do c6 the so sanh
Hinh 4: Von dau tu cua cac doi tac ldn ciia EU vdo Viet Nam nam 2016 va 2017
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Ngudn: Cue Bdu tu nu&c ngodi, Bo Ke hoach vd Bdu tu.
IVIac du su kien Brexit anh hirong tieu cue toi nen kinh 18 Anh, tuy nhien cac n8n kinh te khac cua EU van dang co dau hieu tich cue hon so voi giai doan truoc do. Digu nay anh hucmg it nhiSu toi d t o tu FDI cua cac quoc gia nay vao nin kinh te Viet Nam. Mac dii vay, theo so lieu cua Cue DSu tu nuoc ngoai, nhirng anh huong nay la khong nhiSu.
Cu the, doi vdi diu tu FDI ciia Anh vao Viet Nam, nSu tinh din thai diSm 20/6/2016 chiim 1,22% t6ng dang ky FDI thi dSn thoi diSm 20/10/2017 con s6 nay vin chiSm 1,11%, chi giam 0,11 digm %. Ha Lan va Phap la hai
Cue dau Dau tu nuac ngoai, Tinh Mnh thu hut clau tu
quoc gia co dau tu FDI vao Viet Nam la kha Ion, va cung co chieu hudng giam manh sau sir kien Brexit. Cu the, tinh den thdi diem 20/6/2016, tdng v6n dang ky FDI cua Ha Lan va Phap tuang ung 3,11% va 1,17% thi den 20/10/2017 chi cdn tuong img la 2,57% va 0,88%. Doi vdi cac quoc gia khac cua chau Au nhu Dire, Thuy Si, Luxembourg, Itaha, Dan Mach..., tdng vdn diu tu FDI tai 2 thdi diSm 20/6/2016 va 20/10/2017 chi thay ddi rit nhd. C6 thS thiy, sir kien Brexit khdng anh hirdng tdi diu tu FDI cua cac nudc nay tdi ndn kinh td Vict Nam.
Mat khac, viec Anh rdi EU se anh hudng ldn tdi tien trinh tu do hda thuang
134 NGHIEN cOU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(2251.2019
mai the gidi, lam suy giam tang trudng thuang mai va dau tu toan cau, anb budng tdi thuang mai va dau tu cua cac ddi tac thuong mai va dau tu ldn ciia Viet Nam la My, EU va Trung Qudc. My va EU bien la nhung ddi tac xuat khau ldn nhat cua Viet Nam. Tat ca nhiing ydu td tren se tac dgng tdi tbuong mai va dau tu ciia Viet Nam, tir dd anh hudng tdi tdc dp tang trudng cua nen kinb te Viet Nam. Ddng von dau tu nude ngoai cua EU vao Viet Nam cd kba nang giam do tiem lyc tai cbinh cua cac cdng ty da qudc gia tir EU giam, dac biet la khi cac ngan hang chau Au phai thu hep boat ddng neu Anh rdi khdi EU. Tuy nhien, ddng vdn dau tu gian tiep se chuyen hudng khdi EU de tim den nhiing noi cd dieu kien vi md dn dinh bon va tao co hgi cbo Viet Nam thu hut ddng vdn nay neu cd cbinh sach phii hop.
Hon niia, viec Anh rdi EU se lam cham Iai qua trinh trien khai Hiep dinh Tbuong mai ty do giii'a Lien minb Chau Au va Viet Nam. Hiep djnh tbuong mai Viet Nam - EU da chinb thuc ket thuc dam phan vao ngay 1/12/2015 va ddn ngay 1/2/2016 van ban hiep dinh da duac cdng bo. EVFTA cd hai phan chinh bao gdm Hiep dinh Thuang mai ty do (FTA) nham ty do boa cac mat hang va dich vy, va Hiep djnh Bao hd dau tu (IPA) nham bao bd cbo cac dy an dau tu ciia Viet Nam d cbau Au va ngugc lai. Ong Bruno Angelet, Trudng Dai dien Pbai doan Lien minb Chau Au tai Viet Nam bay td by vgng Hiep dinh se duoc ky ket va thdng qua vao
nua cudi nam 2019. Viec Anb rdi EU cd the se khidn cho viec ky kS Hiep dinh nay bi anh hudng.
3. Mot s6 goi y nhlim thu hut ddng v6n FDI cua Anh va EU sau Brexit
Sy kien Brexit diln ra se anb hudng manh tdi kinh te thd gidi, dac biet la khu vye chau Au. Tuy nhien, ddi vdi kinb te Viet Nam bao gdm ca boat ddng tbuong mai va dau tu, tac ddng cua su kien nay mang Iai la kbdng nhieu. Brexit mang Iai ca nhimg co bdi va thach thirc cbo qua trinh tang trudng kinh te, md rong quan be thuang mai va dau tu cua Viet Nam vdi cac ddi tac tren toan the gidi, dau tu FDI ciia cac nudc cbau Au vao Viet Nam cdn kha khiem tdn trong thdi gian qua. Do vay, Viet Nam can cd nhung chinh sach phil hop bon de tbu but dugc FDI cua cac nudc chau Au vao Viet Nam. Dd ung phd vai sy kien Brexit, Viet Nam cm co nhiing bien phap thich hgp nham lya chgn phuang an cd Igfi nhat trong trudng hgp nudc Anb thuc sy rdi khdi EU cung nhu can co chinb sach tang cudng kha nang tbu but ddng vdn FDI, ban cbe tac dgng tieu cyc va khai thac CO bdi cd the tao ra tir su kien nay. DS tang cudng thu hut ddng vdn FDI tij mgt s6 ddi tac ehau Au sau Brexit, Viet Nam can co mdt sd chinb sach nhu sau:
Thie nhdt. day manb d^u tu cbo khoa hoc cdng nghe nham tao co sd tdt dd cac nha dau Ur cbau Au cd ddng lyc tidp can va diu m vao Viet Nam ndi rieng va nang cao chdt
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lugng cua cac du an FDI ndi chung, tbeo kip xu hudng cua cudc each mang khoa hgc cong nghe 4.0 dang didn ra hien nay. Can sdm ttiSn khai xay dung chi6n luge tbu hiit cac tap doan cdng nghe ldn vdi Id tiinh dai han, cac chinh sach, bien pbap va cdng cu khac nhau nham tiiu but cdng nghe hgp ly va phu bgp vin dieu kien, bdi canh cua Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi.
Thu hai, luu y den cac ndi dung lien quan dl sd huu tri tue, nham tao moi tnrdng thuan lai, thu but ngudn vdn dau tu cd chat luong cao tir cac ddi tae chau Au. Nang cao hon niia vai tio ciia tda an trong viec xet xir nghiem minh cac hanh vi xam pham nghiem trgng quyen sd huu tri tue. Nghien cuu tbanh lap den vi chuyen trach chdng tdi pham xam pham quyen sd hiju tri tue.
Thic ba, cm tiep can Lien minh Chau Au va Anb nhu 2 ddi tac trong trong qua trinh xuc tien dau tu. Mac dii viec dam phan Anh rdi khdi EU dang trong qua trinb tbao luan va di den thdng nbat, nbung viec tidp can EU va Anh nhu 2 ddi tac ddc lap se giiip CO hoi thu hiit ngudn vdn dau tii' tir cac qudc gia nay cao ban.
Thu tu. day manh boat ddng xiic tten true tiep thdng qua viec lya chgn mdt sd Imh vuc tiem nang dd gidi thieu true tidp tdi cac nha dau tu Anh va EU cd thd manb trong linh vye do de nang cao hieu qua xiic tien va thu hut dau tir. Tren co sd dd, budng tdi viec thu hut dau tu vao eac du an Idn, cd gia tri
dugc tbyc bien bdi cac nha dSu tu mang tinh dan dat, tao dgng lyc phat tridn.
Thu ndm, mac dii Brexit khdng cd nhieu anh budng tinic tiep tdi nen kinb td Viet Nam ndi cbung va boat ddng tbu hiit dau tir cua Viet Nam ndi rieng, nbung Brexit van la mdt sy kien quan trpng trong bdi canh kinh td toan cau, cd anh hucmg nhat dinb tdi cac ddi tac ldn ciia Viet Nam nbu Hoa Ky, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc... Do dd, song song vdi viec tien banh xiic tien dau tu vdi Anh va cac qudc gia tbudc Lien minh cbau Au, Viet Nam ciing can tiep tuc day manh hoat dgng xiic tien vdi cac ddi tac ldn trong boat ddng dau tu nbu Hoa Ky, Nhat Ban,... de tan dung CO bdi nay.
Tai lieu tham khao 1. Bruno Angelet (2018), Hiep dinh thuang mgi tu do liin minh chdu Au vd Viet Nam- Con du&ng ngdn di Viet Nam thu hut FDI chdt luang cao tie Liin minh Chdu Au, Ky ydu 30 thu hut FDI tai Viet Nam, Bg Kd hoaeh va Dau tu'.
2. Cue dau Dau tu nudc ngoai, Tinh hinh thu hiit ddu tu nu&c ngodi liiy ki den 2018, Bg Ke hoach va Dm tir.
3. Dang Thi Tuydt Mai (2017), Triin vgng ddu tu true tiip ciia Liin minh chdu Au vdo VietNam,
http://tapcbitaicbinh.vn/ngbien-cuu-trao- doi/trien-vong-dau-tu-truc-tiep-cua-ben- minb-chau-au-vao-viet-nam-114025.html, truy cap ngay 20/05/2019.
136 NGHIEN cOU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
4. Dbingra, Swati, Gianmarco IP Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, and John Van Reenen (2016), How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK.... and why it
matters, LSE Business Review
5. Hgc vien Chinb sach va Phat trien, Bg Ke boacb va Dau tu (2018), Nghien cuu cdc gidi phdp ddt phd nhdm thu hiit ddu tu true tiip nu&c ngodi tie cdc ddi tdc chiin luac thudc khu vuc Chdu Au vd Hoa Ky trong bdi cdnh nin kinh ti sd hda vd cugc cdch mgng cdng nghiip 4.0, De an Cap Bd da nghiem thu.
6. Hpc vien Chinh sach va Phat trien, Cue Dau tu nudc ngoai, Bg Ke hoach va Dau tu (2017), Brexit — Tdc ddng t&i xu hu&ng ddu tu ra nu&c ngodi ciia mot sd ddi tdc Chdu Au chu yiu vd tdc ddng t&i Viet Nam, De an Cap Bd da nghiem thu.
7. McGrattan, Ellen R. and Andrea 8. Waddle (2017), The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production. No.
W23217. National Bureau of Economic Research
9. Matthew Ward (2019), Statistics on UK - EU trade. Briefing paper. House of Commons Library.
10. Nguyen Quang Tbuan (2010),
"Dau tu tryc tiep cua Lien minb Cbau Au vao Viet Nam: Tbyc tiang va trien vgng", Nghiin cini kinh Kinh ti. sd 380 - thang 1/2010
11. VEPR (2016), Ddnh gid nhanh ve dnh hu&ng ciia Brexit den kinh ti the gidi vd Viet Nam, Bai tbao luan cbinh sach, CS - 12.
12. Website:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics- exp 1 ained/index. php/Foreign_direct_investm ent_statistics
13. UNCTAD, World Investment Report (2010-2017).
