Nguyin Xuan Trnng, Nguyin Le Thy Thucmg, Pham Thuy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn..
Chu-oTig trinh Hat nhan cua Iran:
Mot so gia thuyet va kich ban
Nguyin Xuan Trung*, Nguyin Le Thy Thirong**, Pham Thiiy Nguyen***
*.**.•*' Vi4n Nghien cdu An Do va Toy Nam A
Ngdy nhan bai: 10/09/2018, ngay giri phan bien: 16/11/2018, ngdy duyet dang: 19/12/2018
Ty^i 'Viet dua ra ndm gid thuyet chinh ve dong co phdt triin Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn cua X - / Iran, bao gdm: (I) Iran phdt trien Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn di ndng cao ndng luc qudn su, ddm bdo an todn vd an ninh qudc gia; (2) Iran phdt triin Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn di vuan len trd thdnh cuang qudc sd mgt a Trung Ddng; (3) Iran phdt triin Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn di phdt huy bdn sdc vd niem tu hdo ddn toe; (4) Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn Id vu khi di "bdo ve chi do " cua Iran;
(5) tong hap cua cdc gid thuyet tren. Tic do nhdm tdc gid phdc thdo mdt vdi kich bdn vi suphdt trien ciia Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn Iran trong thai gian tai.
Tir khda: Iran, Chuong trinh Hat nhan, ddng co, gia thuyet
1. Doi net ve Chuong trinh Hat nhan ciia Iran
Chuong trinh hat nhan cua Iran bit diu nam 1957 vdi sy giiip do cua Hoa Ky nhu la mdt phdn ciia chuang trinh Nguyen ttr vi Hda binh'. Chinh quyen Nixon ciia My vd Shah ciia Iran da day nhanh chuang trinh nay trong nhiing nam tir 1970 den 1976. Trudc khi cuoc Cdch mang Hdi gido d Iran bimg nd, Tdng thdng Mj? Gerald Ford da ky mdt chi thi cho phep Iran mua lai co sd tdi che ciia My, dieu ndy phan nao giiip cho Iran cd the kiem soat chu trinh nhien lieu hat nhdn cua minh. Sau Cdch mang Hdi gido ndm 1979, quan he giiia Iran va My xau di, My da cham dirt ke hoach chuyen giao cdng nghe hat nhan cho nudc ndy. Trong cugc chien tranh Iran-Iraq, nha may hat nhan Bushehr cua Iran da nam Ian bi haq nem bom (thang 3/1984, thdng 2/1985, thdng 3/1985, thang 7/1986 va thdng 11/1987). Nam 1989, Iran quyet dinh khdi dgng lai Chuong
trinh Hat nhan ciia minh sau khi cugc chien tranh vdi Iraq ket thiic.
Cac nha may hat nhan ciia Iran tap trnng vao cac hoat ddng hinh thanh hat nhdn trudc khi dua vdo Id phan iing trong chu trinh ndng lupng hat nhan: nhu khai thac, nghien, chuyen ddi, lam giau hat nhan vd che tao nhien lieu. Vdi cdng doan sau khi dua ra khdi Id phan ling hat nhdn, Iran da tien hdnh cdc thu nghiem trong phdng thi nghiem tai che nhien lieu, va tiin hdnh cdc nghien ciiu va phdt trien ve xu ly, tich trii vd tieu huy rac thai phdng xa. Nam 2002, hai CO sd hat nhan tai thanh phd Natanz va Arak cua Iran dugc phuong Tay cho Id hoat dgng nham muc dich Idm giau uranium, san xuit nudc nang - nguyen lieu su dung trong cac Id phan ling sdn xuat vfl khi plutonium.
Cac hoat ddng nay ciia Iran khdng dugc cdng bd cho tdi nam 2002 va 2003. Co quan Nang lugng Nguyen tii Qudc tl (IAEA) da bao
* thythuong2101 @gmail.com 2005 din nay" do PGS. TS Nguyin Xuan Trung lam chu Bai viit nay la mgt phdn Iron^ ket qua nghien cuu cua nhiem
dS lai cdp Bg "Chinh sdch doi ngogi cua Iran tit ndm ' Sam Roe (2007).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29 23
Nguyen Xuan Trnng, Nguyen Le Thy Thuang, Pham Thiiy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn...
cao ve sy ton tai cua cac hoat ddng lam giau Uranium tai Iran nhung Iai khdng the khing dinh sy chinh xac ve nhiing ket qua ma Iran tuyen bd. Co quan nay the hien sy nghi ngd rang, Iran khdng lam giau hat nhan vi muc dich hoa binh. Trong Hiep dinh cdm phd bien vii khi hat nhdn, Iran cung la rapt thanh vien, viec nudc nay khdng cdng bd hoat ddng hat nhan cua minh da khiln nudc nay phai ddi dien vdi lenh trimg phat va cam van cua phuong Tay.
Trudc hoat dpng phdt trien hat nhan cua Iran, Lien Hgp Qudc da dua ra de nghi dam phdn chim dut hat nhan. Thdng 12/2003, Chinh quyln Tdng thdng Khatami quyet dinh ky ket vd thyc hien Nghi dinh thu bd sung IAEA, vd dinh chi viec lam giau va cac hoat ddng tai xii ly hat nhan. Thang 11/2004, thda thuan thii hai mang ten Hiep dinh Paris giiia Iran va Nhdm E3 thudc Lien minh chau Au (bao gdm Diic, Phap va Anh) vdi su hd trg ciia Dai dien cap cao ciia Lien minh chau Au dugc ky ket. Hiep dinh Paris dua ra mot tien trinh dam phan nham dat dugc cac thoa thuan ddi han giiia Iran va nhdm E3, ve hgp tac trong ba ITnh vyc Id cac van de hat nhan, cdc vdn de chinh tri va an ninh, vdn de kinh te va cong nghe^.
Vao nam 2005, Ahmadinejad trd thanh Tong thdng Iran va quyet dinh khdi dgng lai cdc hoat ddng hat nhan cua nudc nay. Thang 4/2006, Iran tuyen bd qu}et dinh chdm diit thuc hien Nghi dinh thu bd sung va tiep tuc chuong trinh ldm giau nhien lieu tai Natanz, va cd cdng nghe hat nhan nhung chi gidi han trong san xuat nang lugng phuc vu hda binh va khdng nham muc dich qudn sy. Thang 6/2006, Phap, Trung Qudc, Nga, My, Anh va Diic hinh thanh nhdm P5+1 (hay E3+3), de xudt keu gpi ngimg Idm giau uranium de ddi lay cdc uu dai ve kinh t l va
ngoai giao va canh bdo rang neu Iran khong phan hdi, hg se dua vu viec nay tdi Hdi ding Bao an. Trong thdi gian 2006 - 2010, Hgi ding bao an da Idn lugt thyc thi 6 nghi quyet (1969- 7/2006, 1737-12/2006, 1747-3/2007, 1803- 3/2008, 1835-9/2008 va 1929-6/2010) yeu d\x Iran dimg cac hoat dgng lam giau Uranium va thyc hien trimg phat kinh te ddi vdi nudc nay.
Ngdy 14/7/2015, vdi nhung no lyc cua Tdng thdng Iran duong nhiem la Rouhani va ngoai trudng Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran va P5+1 thdng nhit ky ket Ke hoach Hanh dpng chung Todn dien (JCPOA) tai Vienna. Day la thda thuan hat nhdn cd tinh lich sir, qua do, Iran chdp nhan buy bd kho du tru hat nhan dugc lam giau tam trung, va cat giam 9 8 % kho dy trir hat nhdn cd do Idm gidu thap, giam cdn 2/3 so lugng mdy Iy tam trong thdi gian 13 nam. Cac boat ddng Idm giau Uranium dugc chuyen hoa nhim trdnh nguy c a lam giau Uranium^. Nam 2016, thda thuan hat nhan giu:a Iran va Mj^ dat budc tien mdi vdi quyet dinh dd bo trimg phat kinh te ddi vdi Iran cua Chinh phu Obama.
Tuy nhien, ngudi ke nhiem Tong thong Obama Id Donald Trump tir giai doan tranh cit cho den khi chinh thiic nham chiic da len an day la mgt "thda thuan tdi te nhat" vd de doa se chim diit nd. Vao ngay 9/5/2018, sau khi da chinh thiic trd thanh Tdng thdng My, Donald Trump dd cdng bd quyet dinh nit khoi thoa thuan hat nhdn va se tilp tuc dp ddt cac lenh trimg phat vdi Iran. Ngoai trudng Mohammad Javad Zarif ciia Iran cho rang nhung tuyen bo ciia Tdng thdng Donald Trump la mgt "no luc tuyet vgng nhdm ldm suy yiu mot thoa thudn da phuang vicng chdc"'^. Bd ngoai giao Iran tuyen bd, nudc ndy se khdng chip nhan bit ky thay ddi nao trong thda thuan ndy vd nudc nay "se
^ Fran9ois Carrel-billiard and Christine Wing (2010). '^ Qu6c KhSnh (2018).
' Kenneth Katzman, Paul K. Kerr, 15/9/2017.
Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
Nguyin Xuan Trnng, Nguyen Le Thy Thuang, Pham Thuy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hat nhdn...
khong thuc hien bdt ky hdnh dong ndo ngodi nhimg cam kit trudc day cua minh"^.
2. M o t so gia t h u y e t ve d o n g eg p h a t trien Chirffng t r i n h H a t nhSn ciia I r a n
Ve vdn de hat nhan, cau hdi Idn nhit dat ra la dgng c a phdt triln Chuang trinh Hat nhan cua Iran, cung nhu m^i lien he gifl-a Chuang trinh Hat nhan vd chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia qudc gia nay. Ddng co kinh te dugc loai trir dau tien, bdi viec phdt t r i l n Chuong trinh Hat nhan da va se gay ra nhiing thiet hai khfing Id ve kinh te cho Iran. Tir dd, nhdm tac gid dat ra mdt vdi gia thuyet sau:
Gid thuyet thu nhdt: Iran phdt trien Chuang trinh Hat nhdn de nang cao ndng lyc quan sy, ddm bdo an toan vd an ninh qudc gia.
Theo Shlomo Ben Ami (2018), Chuang trinh Hat nhdn cua Iran dugc phdt trien nham muc dich bii dap cho nhitng yeu k^m ciia lyc lugng qudn sy thdng thudng, trong mdt khu vyc ma hg cd nhieu thu h a n Id ban^. Viec Iran dat dugc vu khi hat nhdn se la mot qudn bdi chien luge khien ngudi My ludn phai can nhac va than trpng khi mudn v u a n tay tdi nhiing gieng d i u cua Tehran. Nhung thyc te da cho thay, thay vi dam bao an ninh, Chuong trinh Hat nhdn chinh Id noi bat an Idn nhdt ve an ninh cua Iran. Lenh cdm van cua Lien Hgp Qudc dd ngdn can cdc ddi tdc Idn nhu Nga, Pakistan cung cdp vu khi quan sy cho Iran, lam suy gidm tdc do phat trien cua dat n u d c ndi chung vd ciia ngdnh cong nghiep an ninh qudc phdng noi rieng. Hon nfl:a, hat nhdn chinh la cai cd khiln Iran ludn ludn phai doi mat vdi nguy c a bi tin cdng qudn s u tir Israel va My. Khi phat trien Chuong trinh Hat nhan, cac nhd lanh dao Iran h i n da nhin nhan dugc tir trudc van de
nay. Bdi vay, gia thuyet nay tuy cd co sd nhat dinh, nhung cdn nhieu diem chua thuc s y thuyet phuc.
Gid thuyit thu hai: Iran phat trien Chuang trinh Hat nhan de vuon len trd thdnh cudng qudc sd mdt d Trung Ddng. Gia thuyet nay dya tren co sd lap ludn r i n g : dau md, hat nhan va Hdi gido Id ba cdng cu dac lyc md Iran su dyng de ndm quyen lanh dao d Trung Ddng. The nhung, ve trii lugng ddu md, Iran van x I p sau Saudi Arabia trong khu vyc. Ve Hdi giao, ngudi Iran chu yeu la tin dd Hdi gido Shia, chi chiem sd l u g n g n h d so vdi dan sd Hdi giao Suimi ddng dao trong khu vuc.
Cho nen vu khi hat nhdn trd thdnh cdng cu Igi hai nhit cua Cdng hda Hdi gido Iran. Iran muu cau sue manh hat nhan de troi day, xda bd trat ty quyen lyc hien dang tdn tai d khu vyc nay.
Day la gid thuyet tuang ddi hgp ly va dugc nhieu nha nghien ciiu ung hd. Theo Azghandi (2010), Tdng thdng Ahmadinejad la ngudi da no lyc de dua Iran trd thdnh nudc cd vi the quan trgng trong khu vuc Vinh Ba Tu va Trung Ddng thdng qua s y phu thudc vao hat nhdn vd siic manh qudn su'. Cho nen cd the hieu tai sao dudi thdi Tdng thdng Ahmadinejad, Chuang trinh Hat nhan ciia Iran lai dugc day manh.
Nhung neu gia thuyet nay chinh xac thi nd lai cho thdy nhung sai lam can ban trong chien luge cua chinh quyen Iran. Chi vdi vu khi hat nhan, Iran van chua du tilm lyc d l chay dua vii trang vdi cac nudc trong khu vyc.
Chinh vi sy phdt trien ciia chuong trinh hat nhdn ma Iran bi cong ddng qudc te dp dat lenh trimg phat, ngdn cdn cdc tien bg cdng nghe va dau tu quan su, trong khi do Israel vd Saudi Arabia, nhung qudc gia cd ngan sach qudc
'ParisaHafezi(2018).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
*Hlomo Ben-Ami (2018).
'Azghandi, A. (2010).
25
Nguyin Xuan Trung, Nguyin Le Thy Thuang, Pham Thuy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn..^
phdng Idn hon nhilu, Iai dugc hau thuin bdng trang thilt bi qudn sy tdi tan cua phuong Tay^.
Han niia, n l u mudn chay dua vdi cac nudc trong khu vyc, le ra Iran phai tap trung vao sdn xuit vu khi hat nhdn - dieu md chinh quyln Iran tir trudc dSn gid ludn phu nhan.
Day la dac diem xuyen sudt qua cac thdi ky va nhdn dugc su ddng thuan cua Ldnh tu tdi cao. Vao thdng 9/2005 Ldnh tu tdi cao Khamenei tham chi cdn- ban hdnh mot sac dy chong Iai vii khi hat nhan ggi la Fatwa 2005^.
Sau nay, lanh tu toi cao cua Iran cd n h i c Iai sdc du ndy nhieu l i n trong cac tuyen bd cua dng, tham chi tuySn bd rang sd huu vfl khf hat nhan la tgi loi. Phdt ngdn vien Bg Ngoai giao cua Iran dudi thai Ahmadinejad la Ramin Mehmanparast ciing nhan manh sac dy ve hat nhdn nay Id tdn chi hang dau ma Chinh phu Iran ludn tuan thii'**. Theo Trita Parsi (2014),
"ngudi Iran thira hieu rang n l u hg sdn xuit vu khi hat nhan, dieu nay se lam giam di chii khdng h^ tdng them vi the ciia hp trong khu vuc. Chirng nao khu vyc Trung Ddng cdn khdng chay dua hat nhdn, chiing dd Iran - vdi uu the ty nhien ve quy md vd ngudn lyc cua minh, se van la mdt nudc Idn n l u so sdnh vdi cac qudc gia Idng gilng. N l u chay dua hat nhan, Iran hieu rang hp se keo theo ca nhQ:ng nudc nhd nhu Bahrain va Kuwait tham gia vao cuoc chien, khien cho Iran m i t di uu t h i vdn cd va trd nen ngang bang vdi cac nudc cd dien tich nhd ban rdt n h i l u " . N h u vay, gia thuyet thii hai ndy cd the diing, nhung n l u tin vao nd thi chua the ly gidi dugc nhung tinh toan chien luge cua Chinh quyln Iran.
Gid thuyet thu ba: Iran phat trien Chuang trinh Hat nhan d l phdt huy ban s i c vd niim tir hao ddn tdc.
Theo Arash Reisinezhad (2014), nang lire hat nhdn la mot bieu tuong quan trgng cho ban sdc dan tdc Iran, va cdc nha lanh dao Iran coi khd nang phat trien hat nhan nhu mot yeu tl thiic day niem t y hao ddn tdc. Dieu dd eo nghTa la, ddng co chinh cua Chuong trinh Hat nhan khdng phai la dam bao sy an toan lanh thd cho Iran, ma la phdt huy niem tu hao dan tgc - mgt van de chu yeu mang y nghia tinh t h i n . Dd la 1^ do tai sao Iran bat chip tit ea de tiep tuc C h u a n g trinh Hat nhan, cho du phai trd mdt cai gid kha ddt ve kinh tl'^.
Theo y kien cua Mohiaddin Mesbahi, giam doc Trung tam nghien ciiu Trung Dong tai Dai hpc Qudc te Florida, "ngudi ta khong the hieu dugc ngudn goc, dpng lyc vd quy dao ciia Chuang trinh Hat nhan neu khdng nhan thiic dugc mdi quan he khdng the xda nhoa giiia an ninh ban the vd an ninh phi vat chit cua Iran" '^. An ninh bdn the khdng phai la sir sdng cdn mang tinh c a hgc cua mdt d i t nudc, md la ban s i c , la sy k h i n g dinh v l danh tinh cita ddt nudc do. Iran khdng chi quan tam den viec bao ton sy tdn tai vat chit cua minh ma cdn quan tam den each ma cac nudc khdc nhin nhdn hg, cung nhu each ma quoc gia ndy tu nhin nhan ban than. Vi t h i , theo dng, ding sau Chuong trinh Hat nhan ciia Iran la cdc klidi niem ve nhan p h i m , danh dy vd ban sdc'".
Tdng thdng Rouhani ciing timg n h i n manh dieu nay: "Vdi d i t nudc tdi, viec n i m vung chu ky cua nhien lieu nguyen tir vd tao ra nang
^Hlomo Ben-Ami (2018).
' Fatwa 14 mpt quyet dinh thuoc h? thong luSt le, quy tic Hoi gi^o dugc ban hinh boi mOt nhan vat ton giio c6 anh huong ion vl mat chinh tri lan tfin gido. Nhin chung, Fatwa khSng ring bu0c vl m$t phdp luat mk chi tac dgng ve m$t tSm linh.
Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
'° Iran: Religious decree against nuclear weapons is binding, CBSNews 15/01/2013.
" Arash Reisinezhad (2014), '^ Arash Reisinezhad (2014.
" Arash Reisinezhad (2014).
'* Arash Reisinezhad (2014).
26
Nguyen Xuan Trung, Nguyin Le Thy Thuang, Pham Thuy Nguyen. Chiccmg trinh Hgt nhdn...
lugng hat nhan cung chinh la viec da dang hda cac ngudn nang lugng ciia quoc gia. D i t n u d c ciing nhu con ngudi Iran, cdn dugc tdn trgng -ve p h i m gid". Ong phat b i l u tren td
Washington Post. "Neu khdng h i i u vai trd cua ban sac, nhieu van de se khong dugc giai q u y l t " ' ^ Neu ddng y vdi gia thuylt nay, cd the hieu dugc tai sao cdc nudc phuang Tay vd ddi thil Israel lai phan img vd cung q u y l t liet ddi vdi Chuong trinh Hat nhdn: Chuang trinh Hat nhdn ciia Iran la bieu hien quan trgng nhat cua "ddc Ijip", la trung tam ciia bdn sac cua nha n u d c Cgng hda Hdi giao Iran. My, phuang Tay va Israel dang cd gdng loai trir, hoac chi it la lam suy gidm ^ chi hat nhan cua Iran, b i n g cdch de dpa xda bd b i l u tugng cho quyen lyc, y chi cua ngudi Iran, cung la b i l u tugng cho quyln lyc dia chinh tri khu vyc ciia ddt nudc nay'^. N h u vdy, theo Iy giai cua mgt so nha nghien ciiu vd cua chinh nha lanh dao Iran hien tai, gid thuySt thii ba nay dudng nhu CO tinh hgp l^ cao va cd thS dung nd de 1^ giai cho su trung thanh cua Iran ddi vdi Chuang trinh Hat nhan. The nhung, n6u coi bdn sac vd n i i m ty hao ddn tdc Id dgng c a duy nhdt de Iran phdt triSn Chuong trinh Hat nhan bat chap nhu'ng nguy hai cd the xay ra cho kinh te vd an ninh ciia nudc nay thi Iai cd phan cue doan vd khien cudng.
Gid thuyit thic tu: Chuong trinh Hat nhan la vfl khi de "bdo ve che d o " cua Iran. Gia thuylt nay d u g c xdy dyng tren co sd quan he thu dich giira My va Iran ke tir sau cugc Cach mang Hdi gido. My ludn coi Iran la ddi tugng nguy hiem c6 the de dga hoa binh trong khu vuc va tham chi nghi ngd tinh hgp phap cua nha n u d c Cdng hda Hdi gido Iran. Trudc nguy CO bi lat dd che do bdi My va cac nudc ddng
minh, chinh quyen Iran tuy khdng che tao vu khi hat nhdn nhung van duy tri viec lam giau uranium nhu mgt bien phap ran de, ngan chan va phdng bi trudc mgi ddng thdi tan cdng cua My. Vdi tam quan trgng ciia minh, Chuang trinh Hat nhan se ludn dem lai mdt vi the chac chan cho qudc gia sd huu nd. Gia thuyet ndy trd nen hgp ly va cd c a s d nhdt dinh, nhdt la khi Tdng thdng Rouhani cho rang viec My nit khdi Thda thudn hat nhan la each de gay siic ep nham thay ddi che do d qudc gia ndy:
"Gidm tinh hgp phdp cua he thdng Id muc tieu cudi cung ciia hg. Khi hp ndi thodt khdi, thay ddi che dp theo each rieng ciia hg, thay ddi che do se xdy ra nhu the nao? Dd Id thdng qua viec giam tinh hgp phap, neu khdng mdt che do se khdng thay d d i " " The nhung, tinh chinh xac ciia gia thuyet nay chua the dugc khang dinh khi ma phia My ludn phu dinh cdo budc cua Iran ve viec thay ddi c h i do d qudc gia Cdng hda Hdi giao nay
Tdng hgp nhflng phan tich d tren, cd the thay bdn gia thuyet dua ra deu cd co sd nhit dinh va cd nhung diem nghi van can xem xet.
Vi vay, nhdm tac gia nghieng v l mdt gid thuyet thu ndm, thuc chat chinh la sy tdng hgp cua nhirng gia thuyet da neu trudc do: Ddi vdi Iran, Chuong trinh Hat nhan vira Id cdng cu de ndng cao ndng luc qudn sy, vira Id vfl khi de n u d c nay bao ve che do va vuon len "xung ba khu vyc", vira Id niem t y hao dan tgc va ban sac ciia ngudi Iran ndi chung va ngudi Hdi gido ndi rieng. Chuong trinh Hat nhan vira la quyen luc ciing, vira la quyen lyc mem de Iran khuech truong tam dnh hudng ra khu vuc Tnmg Ddng vd cd the gidi rdng Idn cua cdng ddng Hdi gido. Neu gia thuyet nay la diing, cd the ly giai tai sao Iran lai phdt trien
" Arash Reisinezhad (2014).
'* Arash Reisinezhad (2014).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
" Spiteful Trump admin wants to change regime: Iran's Rouhani on US sanctions, Business standard 15/10/218.
Nguyin Xuan Trung, Nguyin Le Thy Thuong, Ph^m Thiiy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn.
Chuong trinh Hat nhan bat chap nhung tdn thit khdng lo v l kinh t l vd ngoai giao khi bi dp dat lenh c i m van.
3. Mpt so kich ban ve Chirong trinh Hat nhan cua Iran trong t v o n g lai gan
Trong boi canh Thda thuan hat nhan hien dang lam vdo b l tic do sy nit lui ciia My vao thdng 5/2018, cd rit nhilu kich bdn ve chinh sach hat nhan cua Iran trong thdi gian tdi dugc dua ra.
Du phat triln theo hudng nao, cac kich ban ve Chuong trinh Hat nhan ciia Iran cung phai ludn dugc dat trong mdi tuong quan vdi kinh th han.
Nhu trinh bdy d tren, Chuang trinh Hat nhan khong dugc thyc hien vi dgng co kinh te, thdm chi no da vd se gay ra nhiing tdn hai nang ne cho nin kinh t l han. Chinh vi vdy, khi kmh te han red vao tinh trang bat dn nghiSm trpng, Chinh phu se phdi can nhdc den viec cat gidm Chuang trinh Hat nhan de khdi phuc kinh te dat nudc.
Tren co sd dd, nhdm tdc gid dua ra 3 kich ban chinh nhu sau:
Kich bdn thu nhdt: h a n se nit khdi Thda thudn hat nhdn. Kich ban nay cd kha ndng xdy ra, bdi Lanh tu tdi cao Khamenei da de cap den kha nang nit khdi thda thuan khdng chi mdt lan. Vao ngay 29/8/2018, dng tuyen bd trong cuoc hgp vdi Chinh phu Iran rang "JCPOA khdng phai la muc tieu, nd chi la cdng cu. Neu chiing ta di tdi ket ludn rang thda thuan nay khdng duy tri Igi ich quoc gia, chiing ta se gdc nd sang mdt ben"'^.
han cd ca sd de thyc hien dieu ndy, bdi My da tham gia thda thudn hat nhdn va sau dd nit lui.
Sy "bat tin" nay tao tien de cho cac qudc gia thanh vien ciia thda thuan cd t h i ndi gdt Mj? nit lui ma khdng bi chi trich.
Tuy nhien, neu dat kich ban nay trong boi canh kinh te Iran dang ldm vao tmh trang kho khdn nghiem trpng, thi khd nang xay ra ciia no la khdng cao. Bdi nit khdi Thda thuan hat nhan ddng nghia vdi viec Iran se bi tang cudng dp dat cam van, khdng chi bdi M J md cdn cdc nudc P5+1. Trong tuong lai gdn, cac nha lanh dao Iran chua thi hy smh hoan toan nhung Igi ich kinh tl d l ddi liy sy phat trien cua Chuang trinh Hat nhan. Hon niia, cd My va h a n deu khdng muon nhiing ddng thai quan sy xay ra. Trong cac tuyen bd cua minh, cac ddng minh ciia My la Anh, Diic vd Phdp, Nga hay k l cd Tdng thdng My cung van de ngd cdc kha ndng ddi thoai. Ddy chinh la co hgi de han tiep tuc d lai Thda thudn hat nhdn.
Kich bdn thic hai: Iran tiep tuc tham gia Thda thuan hat nhan nhung khdng nhugng bp theo yeu ciu cua My. Ddy la tinh trang dang dien ra vd cd khd nang se tiep tuc keo dai trong thoi gian tdi. Day la kich ban cd khd nang xay ra cao nhdt neu xem xet tren cdc yeu td: tim quan trpng ciia Chuang trinh Hat nhdn ddi vdi Iran, su ung hd cua cac nudc tham gia thda thudn danh cho Iran vd kha nang try viing ciia Iran trudc cdc lenh cam van. Thyc te cho thay, tuy dnh hudng kha nhieu bdi lenh cdm vdn, nhung do ngudn tai nguyen dau md phong phu, Iran van dugc coi la mot cudng qudc kinh t l trong khu vyc. Rit eo the Chinh phu Iran se tdng cudng quan he hpp tac vdi EU, Nga va Trung Qudc de can bang can cdn thuong mai, tit nhien la van trong khudn kho bi gidi han bdi cdc lenh c i m van.
Kich bdn thic ba: Iran nhugng bp nhirng yeu ciu ciia My d l nudc nay tiep tuc quay lai Thoa thuan. Kha nang thanh hien thyc cua kich ban nay se phu thudc vao thdi do cua cac nudc tham gia thda thudn va kha nang ty phuc hoi ciia kinh
'* We will put aside the JCPOA if it foils to fulfill our national interests; Ayatollah Khamenei, Khamenei ir 29/08/2018.
Nghien cihi An Dp va Chau A. S6 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
Nguyen Xudn Trnng, Nguyin Le Thy Thugng, Pham Thiiy Nguyen. Chuang trinh Hgt nhdn...
te Iran. N l u nhu cdc P5-1-1 dung v l phia My d l gdy siic ep len Iran, ddng thdi Lien Hgp Qudc va EU tang cudng cdc lenh c i m van len han, thi nhieu kha nang Iran se budc phai nhugng bd.
Tuy nhien, trong bdi canh cdc nudc tham gia thda thuan dang chi trich hanh ddng nit lui ciia My va tilp tuc d lai thda thuan, kich bdn nay khd cd khd nang xdy ra.
Ket luan
Vdi nhflng gid thuylt da neu ra, dii nghieng ve gia thuyet nao, cung cd t h i thiy ring Chuong trinh Hat nhan cd y nghTa vd cung quan trpng ddi vdi su tdn tai ciia nudc Cgng hda Hdi gido Iran.
Chinh vi ti'nh chat ddc biet ciia nd, Chuong trinh Hat nhan khdng chi thudc v l v i n d l an ninh qudc phdng ma cdn la vdn de ddi ngoai hang dau ma tdt cd cdc the he lanh dao d han d l u quan tdm.
Chinh sdch cua Iran ve van de hat nhan se anh hudng tdi khdng chi ban than Iran ma cdn dnh hudng den sy dn dinh cua khu vuc Trung Ddng va the gidi.
Tai lieu t h a m k h a o
1. Azghandi, A. (2010), Frameworks and Orientations in the Islamic Republic of Iran's Foreign Policy, Tehran: Qoumes Publication Co.
2. Fran9ois Carrel-billiard and Christine Wing (2010), Iran and the NPT, Nuclear energy, nonproliferation, and disarmament,
https://www.ipinst.org/wp-
content/uploads/2010/04/pdfs_iranchapt.pdf, ngay truy cap 3/12/2018.
3. Hlomo Ben Ami (2018), Iran, the Hollow Hegemon, Project Syndicate 24/1/2018, https://www.proj ect-
syndicate.org/commentary/iran-no-regional-
dominance-by-shlomo-ben-ami-2018-
01 ?barrier=accesspayIog, ngay truy cap 20/09/2018.
4. Kenneth Katzman, Paul K. Kerr, 15/9/2017, Iran Nuclear Agreement, Congressional Research Service, http ://barryfomssenate .com/wp-
content/uploads/2018/03/lRAN-DEAL.pdf, ngay tmy cap 6/12/2018.
5. Sam Roe (2007), An atomic threat made in America, Chicago Tribune 28/1/2007, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworl d/chi-061209atoms-day I-story-htmlstory.html, ngay tmy cap 10/9/2018.
6. Parisa Hafezi (2018), Iran says will not renegotiate nuclear deal, warns against changes, Reuters 3/5/2018,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear- usa/iran-says-will-not-renegotiate-nucl ear-deal- wams-against-changes-idUSKBN 1141 CO, ngay truy cap 10/12/2018.
7. Iran: Religious decree against nuclear weapons is binding, CBSNews 15/01/2013, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-religious- decree-against-nuclear-weapons-is-binding/2/, ngay tmy cap 10/08/2018.8. Arash Reisinezhad (2014), Understanding Iran's Nuclear Goals, The National Interest 17/01/2014,
https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/understa nding-irans-nuclear-goals-9725?page=0%2Cl, ngay truy cap 10/09/2018.
9. We will put aside the JCPOA if it fails to fulfill our national interests: Ayatollah Khamenei, Khamenei.ir 29/08/2018, http://english.khamenei.ir/news/5897/We-will- put-aside-the-JCPOA-if-it-fails-to-fulfill-our- national, ngay truy cap 19/12/2018.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2019, tr.23-29
