Nghien culi thi/c nghiem
tac dong cua ngf cong va lam phat den GDP cua cac nu'dc PlicS
bang mo hinh lidc lUOng PMG
MGUYIN THI THtl HAMG' NGO NGQC Q U A N "
Tom tat
Bdi viet sff diing mo hinh udc lugng PMG deddnh gid tdc d^ng cua ng cong vd lam phdt de'n tdng trudng kinh li'dcdc nUdc PUGS' iff ndm 1999 de'n ndm 2018. Ki't qud cho thdy, trong ngdn hgn.
ng cdng co tdc dgng tiiu cffc di'n tdng trudng kinh ti', nhUng Irong ddi han. ng cong lai tdc dgng tich cffc de'n tdng trudng kinh te; lam phdt co tdc dgng tick cffc din tdng trudng kinh te; lUOng tdc ng cong vd lam phdt tdc dgng tieu cffc den tang trudng kinh ti'. Dua vao kit qud phdn tich.
bdi vie't dua ra cdc khuyen nghi chinh sdch cho cdc nUdc PUGS vd Lien minh chdu Au (EU) de thuc day tdng trudng kinh le'trin ca sdphdi hap hdi hda trong kiem sodl ng cong vd lam phdt.
Tii khoa: PIIGS, ng cong, lam phdt, tdng irUdng kinh li'. khdng hodng ng Summary
This paper uses PMG estimator lo assess the impact of public debt and inflation on economic growth in PUGS countries from 1999 to 2018. The results show that: in the short term, public debt has a negative effect on economic growth, but in the long term, public debt has a positive impaci on economic growth; inflation has a positive impact on economic growth; the interaction between public debt and inflation has a negative impact on economic growth. From those findings, the study provides policy recommendations for PUGS countries and the EU to promote
economic growth based on harmonious coordination in public debt and inflation control.
Keywords: PIIGS. public debt, inflation, economic growth, debt crisis
Gldi THIEU bdi cac chinh phu, doanh nghiep vd dac biel trong gldi nghien cffu. Mae dii vay, Cupc khung hoang nd chau Au bat dau d Hy Lap tde dpng ciia nd cpng, lam phat vd Irfdng nam 2009, sau dd nhanh chdng lan sang cde qud'e tdc ciia chung len tang trrfdng kinh tdvan gia khdc trong Khu vrfc ddng tiln chung ehau Au chrfa drfdc lam rd. Do do, bai viS'i tien (Eurozone). PIIGS la nhdm 5 qud'c gia c6 tinh hinh nd hdnh phdn tich thrfc nghiem tac dpng cua cong nghi6m trgng nha't, cung la 5 nen kinh te'suy yeu np cong va lam phdt ddi vdi tdng trrfdng nha't trong giai doan khung hoang nd. kinh te ciia cdc nrfdc PIIGS trf nam 1999 Trrfdc khi rdi vao khiing hodng nd, 5 nrfdc nay da dd'n nam 2018 (Nghiin ciiu sff dung cdch phai ddi mdt vdi dp Irfc nd ldn, tham hut ngan sdch vrfpt vie't sdlhgp phdn theo chudn qudc te).
xa ngffdng quy dinh ciia EU. Np cong cao khdng chi
dnh hrfdng ldn dd'n nen kinh le eiia chinh cae qudc gia CO Sd LY^ THUYET VA PHL/ONG nay va Eurozone, ma cdn mang den nhffng thdch thrfc PHAP NGHIEN CUU
nghiem trpng ddi vdi srf dn dinh cua nen kinh te the
gidi vd thi trrfdng ldi chinh lodn c^u. Trong boi eanh Crf sd ly thuyd't
dd, cdc va'n de nd cdng, bao gdm cd eupc khung hoang Tdc dgng cua ngcdng len l^m phdt nd'ehdu Au, da trd thdnh chii de ndng drfdc quan tdm Nghien cffu cda Bhattarai vd cpng sir
• TS., Trrfdng Dgi hpc Kinh te va Quan Ui kinh doanh Thai Nguyen
" T S . , Trrfdng Cao d i n g Cong nghiep Nam Djnh
Ngdy nhqn bdi. 20/5/2020: Ngdy phdn bifn: 22/6/2020: Ngdy duy ft ddng: 26/6/2020 ' PIIGS g6m 5 nirac: B 6 DSO Nha. Ireland. Y. Hy U p vS Tay Ban Nha
(2014) da chi ra ba cd chd'chlnh sach khdc nhau, thdng qua dd nd cdng anh hrfdng dd'n lam phdt. Dau tiin la cd che tien te thdng tri, cu the la chinh sach tien te chu dpng va chinh sach tai khda thu dpng.
Theo dd, phan ffng cao eua lai suat dd'i vdi lam phat cd lien quan chat che vdi phan Ong cao cua thud' dpi vdi nd cdng. Nd cdng vd ldp trrfdng chinh sach tai khda Ididng anh hrfdng dd'n bid'n dpng lam phat,
Thff hai la cd chd' tai khda dp dao, cd nghia la chinh sdch tien id thu dpng vd chinh sdeh tdi khda chu dpng. Trong cd chd' ndy, chinh sdch tai khda (mffc nd cdng va lap trrfdng chinh sach tai khda) cd tae dpng manh me dd'n bid'n dpng lam phdt. Dac biet, np eong cao din de'n sff gia tdng lam phat.
Ca chi'cudi cdng la chlnh sdeh ti^n td thu dpng vd cd chd'chinh sdch tai khoa thu dpng, trong dd phdn ihig lai sua't tha'p doi vdi lam phdt cp Uen quan de'n phdn rfhg cao ciia thue ddi vdi np va ddn de'n sff khong b^n vffng. Trong trffdng hpp nay, mac du mffc np cong khdng anh hrfdng dd'n lam phat, song chinh sach tiln Id vd tdi khda deu cd tdc dpng dd'n bid'n dpng Iam phat.
Hay trong nghien cffu ciia Martin (2015), Idc gia da sff dung phdn tich ly thuyd't de xem xet tdc dpng eua np cong cao dd'i vdi Iam phdt. Ke't qua cung chi ra rang, np cong cd tde dPng dd'n lam phdt.
Tdc dgng cua Igm phdt ddi vdi ngcdng Christopher Adam vd cpng sff (2010) chi ra rang, trong dieu kidn cac yd'u tP khdc khdng doi, sff gia tang/sut gidm eua lam phdt se din de'n srf sut giam/gia tang trfdng ffng Clia nd cdng.
S. Ah Abbas va cgng srf (2013) lap luan, nd'u ro thu nhap khong lidn quan dd'n thud'thu nhap liiy tid'n, thi lam phdt cd the dnh hrfdng de'n can ddi ngan sach cd ban.
Chinh phu cung cd the nam bat cac nguon Irfc thrfc srf bdng each tao ra lien td ed sd, nhrfng do tiln te cd sd cd quy mP nho, nen han che vide ldng crfdng in d'n tien. Tac dpng dang k l nha't cua lam phdt dd'i vdi nd cdng dd Id lam suy y^u gid tri thrfc eua ndcdng. AJdloby vd cpng srf (2014) chi ra rang, lam phdt Id mpt d'ong nhfflig cong cu hffu ich d l giam nd cong. Do dd, ehinh phii cd the sff dung lam phat cao nhrf mot cong cu d l giam nd edng qud mffc.
Tdc dgng cua np cong vd l^m phdt ddi vdi tdng triidng kinh t^
Chudik vd cong srf (2013) nhdn thay, nd cong vd lam phat cd ldc dgng lieu crfc dd'i vdi tdng ffrfdng kinh td' trong ddi han.
BAMG 1: MO TA CAC BIEN TRONG MO HINH NGHIEN CCfa
STT T6n biSn Ngudn
dSiWa
mti ^ . ^ H
Rien phii thimr
1 GDP growth (Yt) WDI GDP binh quan dau ngifdi. Bien nay iSy lopant de ohan anh toe dfl tane tnrSnfi Bie'n dflr ISn
1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Thu nhap binh quan dau ngirSi ban dau (Y.,) Nd cong (DEBT)
Lam phdt (INFL) Tons dau tu-(TINV) Life lu'dng lao ddng (LABO) Chi tieu chinh phu (GEXP) CtJ s5 ha tang (TELE) Do mb thirdng mai (OPEN) Tu'dng tac nd cong va lam phat (DEBT*'lNFL)
IMF
WDI IMF WDI IMF WDI WDI
Th^ hi6n the hien mifc dfl phdt tri^n kinh te ban dau ciia moi auoc gia
Tong nd quoc gia (bao gom nd trong nUdc va ngoai nu'dc), du'dc tinh theo tf le phan tram cua GDP
B^i vig't su" dung CPI de phan anh ty le lam Dhdt (%)
Du'dc tinh theo ty 1^ phan tram cila GDP TJ 1^ so' lifdng lao dong trong do tu^i 15-64 tren tdng dan so ci nu'dc (%) Tong chi tieu cua chlnh phii, du'dc tinh theo tv le phan tram ciia GDP
So lu'dng ngu'di dilng sii" dung thufi bao di6n thoai c6'dinh (tinh tren 100 ngu'di)
(Xuat khau + nhap khau)/GDP * 100 The hien su" lu'dng tdc nd cong va lam phdt
Akitoby vd cpng srf (2014) cho rang, cdc bid'n Irfdng tac vdi nd cong va lam phdt cd ldc dpng cu the dd'n tdng trrfdng kinh Id'. Trong khi do, Guo (2019) da chi ra, sff ton tai Clia mpt giai doan lam phat cao cd tffdng quan vdi giai doan nd cao vd ngrfde lai. Ben canh do, cdc giai doan ed ty Id nd cong cao co lidn quan dd'n ede giai doan dai hdn eua tang trrfdng dm; ty Id lam phat cao hdn cd lidn quan de'n thdi gian ngan hdn cua cdc giai doan lang trffdng am.
Tdm lai, cd mpt md'i trfdng quan girfa nd cdng vd lam phdt. Bdn canh dd, srf iffdng tdc eua nd edng va lara phdt cd the cd tdc dpng dd'n tang trffdng kinh td'.
PhiAfng phap nghidn ciJu
Bai vid't di sdu nghien cffu thffc nghidm tdc dgng eiia nd cdng vd lara phdt dd'n tdng trrfdng kinh td' ciia cdc nrfdc PIIGS trong giai doan 1999-2018. Khung phdn tich bat dau vdi ham san xua't Cobb-Douglas truyin thdng, drfdc bie'n ddi vd dat drfdc ket qua cud'i cung nhrf sau:
+ y/DEBT * INFL)^+ ^ ^ ( ^ 1 / J-.f^^^^A, + > ' i ^ | + y/TELE)^^ + Y/OPEN}^^-\- ri''+ i^^
Drfa trdn khung phan tich, phrfdng Irinh thrfc nghiem danh gia tae dpng tffdng lac ciia nd cong vd lam phat dffdc the hidn nhff sau:
V, - y,, = a, + ^,y,, + XJ) + zj\ + V, + <, Trong dd: n ~iid(0, oq); ^t~iid(0, o|); Edi^^it) = 0; Y,, la GDP binh qudn dau ngffdi thffe; X^, id edc bil^n chinh (nd cong, lam phdt, irfdng ldc clia nd con^ va lam phdt);
Z la cac bie'n kiem soat, bao gdm: tdng dau tff, lao dpng, chi tidu chinh phu, cd sd ha tang, dp md thffdng mai; tii Id tdc dpng cd dinh cd ddc linh qud'c gia, bat bid'n theo thdi gian, khong quan sat dffdc; ^ t la dai Irfdng sai sd^.
Economy and Forecast Review
15
BANG 2: KET QUA KIEM TRA DQ B I N B A N G THtf NGHT|M HADRI CHO C H G 6 I Dd LIEU CHJNH
T^D chudi DGDP D E B T DDEBT INFL DINFL
ThSoRk^
-0.1584 1.4900 3 9275 1.9122 3-8792
P-valiK 0.56''9 0.0681 0.0000 0.0''79 O.OOOl BANG 3: KET QUA THd NGHIEM MOI QOAN HE D 6 N G KIEM DjNH
GICA DGDP VA DEBT i W n e k S
Gt Ga Pt Pa
Value -5 117 -14411 -11 285 -14.032
Z-vaiue -8.361 -''975 -7 886
^ 7 i 6 P-vahie
0.000 0.00'' 0000 0000 BAMG 4; KET QUA THtf NGHIEM MOI QGAN HE DONG KIEM DjNH
GlCfA DGDP VA INFL
i^Knidneke
iGt Ga Pt iPd
Value -"• 963 -1 1 549 -5.616 -9-757
Z-value -2.943 -1 794 -2 288 -2 632
P>value 0-002 0.036 0,011 0 004
, BANG 5
m I
i i»EBT
!NFL DEBTINF
KET QGA KIEM DjNH HAUSMAN DE LCTA CHQti MO HINH PMG VA MO HiNH MG
Cac he sg (b) mg
-460.772 -1240.803 69.3386
(B) pma 383 7703 21549.83 -124 4797
Ib-B) Chenh lech
-844 5423 -22790 63 1938183
sqrt(diaE(V b-V B)) S E
991.321 22856.03 234 8954 b = dong nha't theo H„ \ a H^; thu du'dc tif \ t p m g
B = khone done nhat theo H , hieu qua theo H,: thu difdc tif \ipma Kiem dinh. H,' chenh lech he so'tifdna quan khons co he tho'ns chi2(3) = (b-B)-[(V_b-V_B)^-l)](b-B)= 1 0 9
Prob>chi''= 0.7793
Nhom tdc gia lffa chpn bie'n giai thich la edc bid'n vi md quan trong ciia cac quoc gia (irlnh bdy tai Bang 1) drfdc lay tff dff lieu Clia Quy Tien teQudc te(IMFi \a bd Chi so phdt trien thd'gidi CftT)!) ciia Ngan hang Thd'gidi.
Cdc bid'n nay ra't de bie'n dpng theo thdi gian. do dd. viec sff dung cae bid'n na>' trong phan tieh co the eho thay ro xu hffdng tac dpng cua chiing do'i vdi idng trrfdng kinh td',
KET QUA NGHIEN CL/U
Kid'm dinh tinh dffng
Ke'l qua kiem dmh Hadri d Bang 2 cho tha'y, chudi dff lieu chinh dffng hdn hgp d 1(0) va 1( i\ cu the: DGDP 1(0). INFL UDva DEBT 1(1).
Kiem dinh d6ng lidn ke't
Do hau het cde bie'n drfng lai d phffdng sai 1(1), nhdm tdc gia tie'p tuc kiem tra sd hdp nhd't giffa cac bien GDP. DEBT vd INFL thdng qua ddng kiem dinh cua We^ierlund (2007).
Xel mo hinh hidu chinh sai so sau:
A\- = /. -^ a Av ^ + a Av,, + a„Av "„ + A M r ' ^ '^.;^.,-, + - -' + ^.p^^^T + afy,_i-px^^_,) + M„
Gia thuydt thd'ng kd cho tCfng ddn vi bang cung nhrf todn bp dff lieu bang:
H^: a = 0 Vi H j : a < 0 3 i
Cac thP'ng ke Ga vd Gt kiem dinh y nghTa tho'ng ke cho trrfdng hdp d tffng ddn vi bdng, trong khi cde ihd'ng kd Pa vd Pt kid'm dinh y nghia thdng ke cho todn bp dff lieu bang. Vide bac bo gia thuyd't H^i nen drfdc xem nhrf Id bac bd tinh ddng lidn kd't ciia loan bp dff heu bang.
Ke't qua ciia kiem dinh dinh bdy lai Bang 3 va Bang 4 cho tha'y, nd cdng va lam phdt cd mo'i quan he dong lien ket vdi tang trrfdng kinh td'.
Lu'a chpn md hinh rfdc Irfpng va kd't qua Vdc lUdng
Cac ke't qua kiem dinh tren cho tha'y cdc chudi dff lieu chinh dffng hdn hdp tai 1(0) va 1(1), mat khdc tdn tai md'i quan he ddng tich hdp giffa DGDP va DEBT, DGDP va INFL. Do dd. tiep theo. nhdm tac gia tie'n hanh xem xel Irfa chgn md hinh ffdc Irfdng DFF. PMG ha> MG.
Ve mat ly thuye'i. vi cac ddi Irfpng nghien cffu la cac qudc gia trong cCing mpt khdi (Eurozone). ndn \ e nguyen tdc, trong ngan han. cde qud'e gia trong khd'i cd the khac nhau (cac he so' ngdn han khdc nhau). nhffng ve lau dai. edc qud'c gia se chac chdn tuan iheo dinh hrfdng/
chinh sdch chung eua khdi (he so'dai han Ihd'ng nhdt). Vi ly do nay. ndn lffa chgn phrfdng phap rfdc Irfdng PMG .
Ve mat thP'ng kd, nhom tdc gia sff dung kiem dinh Hausman de irfa chpn PMG hay MG. Kd'l qua kiem dinh Hausman d Bang 5 cho iha'y. gia tri P-value > 0.05, nen khdng cd srf khac biet trong he sd dp ddc rfdc tinh trong md hinh. Do dd, sii"
dung rfdc Irfdng PMG la phii hdp.
Tie'p theo. nhdm tdc gia sff dung mp hinh rfdc Irfpng PMG de danh gid tdc dpng cua nd cdng vd lam phdt ddi vdi tdng trrfdng kinh le. Bang 6 cho thd'y. he so' Clia edc he sd dieu chinh EC la am (gia tri tuyei dd'i nhd hdn mpt \a cd y nghTa thd'ng ke). cd mdi quan he dai han.
phu hpp vdi thff nghiem.
Nhrf \a>, trong dai han, nd ePng. lam phdt va trfdng tac cua chung co \ nghTa Ihd'ng kd do'i vdi lang trrfdng kinh id'. Nd cong va lam phat co tdc dgng tich crfc den tang trrfdng kinh l e d mffc y nghia lan lu'di
la 10% va 5%. Tffdng tdc cua nd edng vd lam phdt cd tac dpng tidu cffc dd'n tdng trffdng kinh te' d mffc ddng ke 5%.
Cd the tha'y, cac qud'c gia PIIGS sau eupc khung hoang da lidn tuc thffc hien cac chinh sach tai khda chat chd, cat giam cdc khoan ehi tidu khPng hdp ly, dac biet la cac khodn chi thffdng xuyen.
Nen kinh te' ciia hau hd't cac nrfdc PIIGS da phuc hdi tang trrfdng khi thrfc hien Cling cd tdi khda. Nd cdng trong ddi han cd tac dpng tich cij'c dd'n tang trffdng kinh te'ciia cdc nrfdc PIIGS.
Hdn nffa, lam phat cua cdc nffdc PIIGS trong giai doan nghien effu cd bie'n dgng, nhffng trong ddi han, lam phat vin dffdc cdc nrfdc PIIGS kiem soat trong ty Id do EU ddt ra (drfdi 2%), cd tac dpng tich crfe ldn tang trrfdng kmh te' trong ddi han.
Trong ngan han, nd cdng, trfdng lac eiia nd cdng vd lam phat cd tac dpng tidu erfe den tang trrfdng kinh te' vdi mffc y nghia thd'ng kd la 1%. Cdc nghien cffu trffdc ddy cung da chi ra rdng, nd edng cao cd thd kim ham tang trrfdng kinh td' vd cde hoat dpng kinh te' khac. Dac bidt, vdi mpt Iffpng nd cpng khdng id va khdng dffdc kiem sodl, khd ndng vd nd la ra't ldn, ddn de'n khung hoang kinh te' trong trfdng lai vd diy dd't nffde vao suy thoai keo ddi, bd't dn xa hgi.
Thffc Id', trong giai doan nghidn cffu, cac qud'c gia PIIGS cd khodn nd ldn va ddi mat vdi Ihdeh thffc trd nd. Ben canh dd, cdc khoan vay cua chinh phii lai cdc qud'c gia PIIGS chii ye'u dffde sff dung eho chi lieu, trong khi ra'l it drfdc dilng dd' lai trd cho cde khoan dau trf nham ldng nang sud't qudc gia. VI vdy, nd cdng eao vd qudn ly ldi chinh yd'u din de'n lie't kiem ffong nrfdc thap, chi tieu cua chfnh phu khdng tao ra gia tri thrfc srf cho nen kinh Id', cung vdi nang sua'l lao dpng giam dan dd'n suy giam tang trrfdng kinh Id'.
Ke't qua rfdc Irfdng eung cho thd'y, trfdng tac giffa nd cdng va lam phat cd tac dpng tieu cffc den tang trffdng kinh Id' d mffc 5%. Tang nd cong lam giam tang trrfdng kinh le, trong khi lam phdt gia lang thuc day tdng trrfdng kinh te. Tac dpng cua vide ldng nd cdng cd the ldn hdn tdc dpng cua lam phat gia ldng, do do srf trfdng ldc eiia chiing lam giam ldng trrfdng kinh td'.
Lao dpng CO tac dpng lieu crfe de'n tang trrfdng kinh td' 6 mffc 1 %. Tinh trang thffa cung lao dpng vd ndng sud't tha'p trong khu vffc eong da cd tdc dpng lidu crfc de'n
BANG 6: KET QGA dCiC LrfCfNG MO HIMH PMG VE TAC ^QTiG CGA H0 CONG vA LAM PHAT DOI Vdl TANG TRCrdNG KINH TE CGA CAC NCJCJC PIIGS
Ten iHSn DEBT INFL D E B T I N F EC DEBT DEBTINF LABO TELE OPEN So quan sit So' nhom Log Likelihood
DM ban 383.8*(23l 9) T1.550**(8,975) - P 4 5**(52.65)
Nfj^bao
-0.17I***(0.0655) -86.82**(105.3) -0.640**(7.801) -604.2 ***(165,7) -603.6**(305.7) -n5,6***(42.15) 95 5 -807.4748 Ghi chii Sai sd chudn ***, ** vd * biiu thj mdc jS nghta ldn lUtfi Id 1%, 5% vi
Mguon- Ket qua nghien cult cua nhom ti tang trrfdng kinh te ciia hau het cac nffdc PIIGS. Sff gia tang Irfc Irfdng lao dpng dan den srf gia ldng qua mffc ve chi phi Iffdng vd phuc ldi, gay anh hffdng xa'u dd'n nen kinh te', Sau khi hinh thanh Lien minh Kinh Id'vd Tien te chau Au (EMU), canh tranh ngdy cdng tdng da kich thich vd'n vd lao ddng de ehuyen tff khu vrfc nang sud'i thd'p sang khu vrfc nang sua'l cao. Didu ndy gay hau qua nghiem trpng, vi Irfc Irfdng lao dpng ddng vai tro quan trpng trong chid'n Irfdc phat trien ciia mdi qud'c gia trong khdi. 0 cac nrfdc kem phdt trien nhrf Hy Lap, de' tranh lan sdng di crf khi iff do hda lao dpng dffdc thffc hidn, Chinh phii bupc phai tang chi tidu phuc ldi vd an sinh xd hpi eho cong dan cua minh, ddn dd'n tham hut ngan saeh vd khung hodng nd cdng. Nhin chung, hau hd'l cdc nffdc PIIGS da bupc phai dffa ra cdi cdch thj trffdng lao dpng va van dang gap mgt sd'khd khdn.
Cd sd ha tang cd lae dgng tieu crfc ddng ke dd'n tdng trffdng kinh td'. Dieu nay cho tha'y, dau trf vao cd sd ha lang Id khong hieu qua trong giai doan nghien crfu.
Md eiia nen kinh Id'cung tdc dgng tieu cffc de'n tang trrfdng kinh Id'. Sau khi gia nhap Eurozone, cdc quo'c gia PIIGS cd ed hpi tiep can vd'n qud'c td'de dang vdi ldi suat thd'p. Tuy nhien, cac qud'c gia ndy da vay np qud mffc vd sff dung cac ngudn vdn khdng hieu qua, cung vdi quan ly yd'u kem... dan dd'n suy giam tang trffdng.
KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGH! GIAI PHAP Ke't qua nghidn crfu ehi ra, nd cdng cao cd lac dpng lidu effe ddng kd' de'n tdng trffdng kinh te'cua cdc nffde PIIGS trong ngan han. Viec tie'p can qud dd dang ede ngudn vo'n nrfdc ngoai khie'n khoan nd tang qua mffc, ehi tidu kem hidu qua cung vdi nhffng bat cap trong quan ly da anh hffdng tidu crfc den ldng trrfdng kinh te'.
Trong ddi han, nhd cdc chinh sdeh ciing cd tai khda, nen nd cdng da gop phan khdi phuc srf tang trffdng kinh td'cua hau hd'l 5 qude gia.
Lam phat cd tdc dpng lieh cffc nha'l dinh dd'n tang trffdng kinh te'cua cdc nffdc PIIGS. Sau cupc khiing hodng nd. ty Id lam phdt cua 5 qudc gia PIIGS deu tdng
Economy and Forecasi Review
17
vd GDP thrfc te'eung tang ldn d mdl mrfc do nhd't dinh.
Ta't nhien, srf phue hdi va tang trrfdng kinh te cua cde qudc gia nay cung cd thd' lien quan den cac chinh sdch kich thich khac dffdc chinh phu cua hg dp dung, cung nhff sff hd trd tff Eli va IMF.
Ngoai ra, ket qua nghien cffu eiing khang dinh, srf tffdng tac ciia nd cong va lam phdt cd tac ddng lieu crfc de'n tdng trrfdng kinh Id'.
Trdn cd sd do, de' Ihuc day tdng trffdng kinh td'd cac nrfdc PIIGS mpt each ben vffng, nhdm tdc gia dd xud't mgi sd giai phdp cho cde qudc gia ndy, cung nhrf khu vrfc EU, nhrf sau:
Ddi vdi cac ntfdc PIIGS
Mot la, cong khai vd minh bgch thong tin ve ngdn sdch nhd nudc vd ng cdng. Vide cung cap thdng tin minh bach giup cdc qudc gia cd ddnh gid dung dan, dieu chinh kip thdi dd trdnh riii ro vd td'n that nang ne cho ndn kinh te'. Tinh minh baeh lai khda doi hdi cd quan ldp phap phdi xdc dinh ro cdc ydu c^u trong bdo cdo hang ndm ve drf nd va ddng nd, bao gdm dff lieu ve bao dam nd cua chinh phu npp cho cd quan ldp phdp va cung ca'p eho cPng chiing.
Hai la, than trgng trong cdc vdn de ng. Cu the, vay can phdi c6 muc tidu vd chie'n Irfdc rd rang, ed tinh dd'n kha nang thu hdi vo'n de' tra nd. Dac bidt, ehinh phii khong ndn vay de tai trd cho chi Ihrfdng xuyen, ma phai ldp trung vao cac dff an dau tff cd ldi eho nen kinh le...
Ba Id, tdng cffdng qudn ly ng cong. Quan ly nd cong can ddt trong md'i quan he vdi chinh sdch tai khda va chinh sach tien td. Cdc qud'c gia PIIGS can hpe hoi kinh nghiera qudn ly va hoaeh dinh ehinh sach tff cac td chffc quo'c Id' ed uy tin va cac nffdc thanh cong trong quan ly nd, nghien cffu de cai thien xep hang tin dung qudc gia.
Bdn Id, tdng thu ngdn sdch vd cat gidm chi tiiu cdng.
Tang Ihu ngan sdch cd thd thrfc hidn Ihong qua tang
ndng suat va hidu qua dau trf cong. De ldng hidu qua dau trf cdng, can dieu chinh qud trinh dau trf, han che hodc ngdn chdn lam dung ngan sdeh mem vd ddu trf eo chgn lpc.
Ndm la, tie'p tuc phdt trien thi trUdng ng trong nudc thdng qua cai thidn va phdt Irien thi trrfdng trdi phidu chinh phu ndi rieng vd thi trrfdng vdn ndi chung, de dam bao nhu cau huy dpng vdn va thanh khoan ngan sdch trong dai han.
Sdu la, duy tri ldng trudng kinh ti'ben vffng. Tang crfdng tiem Irfc kinh td'ngi bd se la nen tang vffng chac dd dim bao kinh phi ddp rfng nhu cau dtu trf va trang trai eae khodn nd cdng khi de'n han, ma khdng lam ganh ndng ngan saeh nha nffde.
Dd'i vdi EU
EU nen Ihrfc hidn ehinh sdch tien td linh hoat kd't hdp vdi chinh sdeh tai khda bd sung cua cac qud'c gia thanh vien Eurozone. Duy tri ldi sua't tha'p, thrfc hidn cdc chrfdng trinh ldi cap vdn dai han cho cde ngan hdng thupc Eurozone, mua trai phieu do chinh phu thanh vidn phdt hdnh, duy in lam phdt mue tidu do EU ddt ra (dffdi 2%). EU eung can thrfc hien chinh sach tien td linh hoat kd't hdp vdi chinh sdeh tai khda ciia cdc qudc gia Ihanh vidn Eurozone.
Ben canh dd, EU cin thiet kd' bp may vdn hdnh va cd chd quan ly ddng tien chung cd hieu qua; ddng thdi, ed cd che' gidm sat va quan ly ehat che do'i vdi tffng qud'c gia thanh vidn ve cdc quy dinh cu thd vd thdm hut ngdn sach, cung nhrfnd cdng.G
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO- _ _
1. Akitoby, M. B., Komatsuzaki, M. T., Binder, M. A. J. (2014). Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries, IMF Working Paper No. 14/96
2. Bhattarai, S., Lee, J. W., Park, W. Y. (2014). Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 93-108
3. Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M. (2013). Debt, inflation and growth:
robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper No.162
4. Christopher Adam, Benjamin Malum, Njuguna Ndung'u, Stephen O'Connell (2010). Building a Kenyan monetary regime for the 21st century, Kenya; Policies For Prosperity. 140-171
5. Guo, M. (2019). Public Debt. High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Suntval Analysis Approach, Doctoral dissertation
6. Martin, P. M. (2015). Debt, Inflation and Central Bank Independence, European Economic Review, 1,129-150 ^ v •• ^
7. S. Ali Abbas. Bernardin Akitoby, Jochen Andriizky Helge Berger. lakuji Komatsuzaki, Justin Tyson (2013). Dealing with high debt in an era of tow growth. IMF Worki'ig Paper No. 13/7
8. Westeriund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69,1Q9-14S
