HOg CHE BIEN D i u KHI
TAP CHi DAU KHi So 3-2020, trang 32-40
ISSN-0866-854X
DauKh •
GIAI PHAP DA DANG HOA NGUON NGUYEN LIEU CHO NHA MAY LOG DAU DUNG QUAT
Dang Ngoc Dinh Oiep Cong ty CP Loc iioa dau Binh Sfln Email: [email protected] Tom tat
Bai Viet gi6i thieu giai phap tim kiem, danh gia, lua chon cac nguon dau tho de thay the mot phan hoac hoan toan dau tho Bach Ho n h i m da dang hoa nguon nguyen lieu, dam bao on dinh cong suat che bien cho Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat ma khong phai thay doi thiet ke cua l^ha may.
Giai phap da xac dinh duoc 67 loai dau tho tiem nang co the phoi tron vdi dau tho Bach Ho, trong do gom 9 loai dau Viet Nam va 58 loai dau nhap khau, Tren thuc te da che bien duoc 19 loai dau tho khac nhau ngoai dau tho Bach Ho, gop phan dam bao du nguon nguyen lieu dau tho cho Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat dong thdi mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao,
TiTkhoa: Cifa so van hanh, da dang hoa nguyen lieu, dau tho Bach Ho, Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat.
1. Oat van de
Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat di/dc thiet ke de che bien 100% dau tho Bach Ho (dau ngot) hoac h6n hdp 85%
dau tho Bach Hd va 15% dau tho Dubai (dau chua).
Trong giai doan dau, Nha may chi co Phan xifdng thu hoi liJu huynh (SRU) vdi cong suat 5 tan/ngay va chJa duoc lap dat cum thiet bi DeSO_, xiily khi thai cochira cac hop chat 50 {difoc thiet ke tuong Lfng vdi tru'dng hop che bien hon hdp dau tho Bach Ho va Dubai) nen chi dUOc van hanh tren co sd che bien 100% dau tho Bach Ho va/hoac dau tho CO tfnh chat tuong dUdng Bach Ho,
Ke tir nam 2009, khi Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat di vao hoat dong, san lupng khai thac dau tho Bach Ho sut giam va khong con dap Crng du nhu cau nguyen lieu van hanh tai 100% cong suat thiet ke (6,5 trieu tan dau tho/
nam, tUOng dUdng 148.000 thung dau tho/ngay). Ngoai ra, chat lu'ong dau tho Bach Ho ngay cang thay doi, ham iL/png can carbon conradson (CCR) va tap chat kirn loai Fe/
Ca trong dau ngay cang tang len. Do do, lUpng dau tho Bach Ho khai thac khong the che bien dUOc hoan toan tai Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat ma phai xuat ban mot phan ra thi trudng ben ngoai.
Ngdynhai>bdi:23/9/2019 HghyphanbiendonhgidwmMo:26/9/2019-12/3/2020 Ngoy bai bdo difec diiyetdang 13/3/2020.
Trudc van de nguon cung dau tho Bach Ho khong con dap Ung du nhu cau nguyen lieu de van hanh tai 100%
cong suatthiet ke, Nha may phai doi mat vdi cac lUa chon sau:
Giam cong suat che bien;
Dau t u mot so phan xUdng/cum thiet bj cong nghe de cd the che bien cac loai dau tho khac ngoai dau tho Bach Ho;
Khan trUdng tim kiem, nghien cUu, danh gia va lUa chon dau tho mdi CO the lam nguyen lieu thay the dau tho Bach Ho cho Nha may.
Trong dd, phuong an nghien cUu, tim kiem, danh gia va lua chon nguon dau thd khac thay the dau tho Bach Ho CO the xem la giai phap toi uu do khdng phai giam cong suat Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat nen van dam bao hieu qua kinh te va khdng doi hdi phai thay doi cau hinh cong nghe gay tdn chi phi dau t u bo sung.
2. Ctf sd khoa hoc - phUtfng phap luan
Ban dau, nhiem vu nghien cUu tim nguon dau tho thay the dau Bach Hd cho Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat dUdcTap doan Dau khiViet Nam (PVN) giao ( ^'ungtam Nghien cUu va Phat trien Che bien Dau khi il \ , ., thudc Vien Dau khiViet Nam (VPI) thuc hien thong qui- ,_.n khai de tai "Nghien cUu kha nang che bien dau tho triay the dau thd Bach Hd cho Nha may Loc dau Dung C.iat'
32 Diu KHi - so 3/2020
Qua trinh nghien ccfu cua PVPro gom 2 giai doan, thUc hien tc/
nam 2007 - 2008. Phuong phap luan cua qua trinh nghien cij-u la tien hanh phan tich, danh gia toan dien tinh chat cua tifng loai dau thd dupc sang lpc tU ngan hang dCf lieu gom hdn 2.000 bao cao phan tich chat lUOng dau (crude assay) cua PetroTech Intel (PTI) va so sanh vdi bao cao phan tich chat lUpng cua dau Bach Hd co sd (diing de thiet ke Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat). Sau khi xac dinh dupc cac loai dau thd co tinh chat tuong dong vdi dau Bach Ho thi se tien hanh danh gia kha nang thay the cua tUng loai dau ddi vdi dau Bach Hd bang phuong phap ket hpp glQa quy hoach tuyen tinh (LP programming) va md phong cdng nghe (process simulation).
Ket qua nghien cUu cho thay, khdng cd loai dau tho nao cd tinh chat tuong dUPng nhu dau Bach Ho de co the thay the hoan toan dau tho nay lam nguyen lieu cho Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat.
Thay vao do. chi cd the xac dinh dupc cac loai dau thd cd kha nang thay the mot phan dau Bach Hd, dien hinh gom 4 loai sau:
Dau tho SUTif Vang (Viet Nam), kha nang thay the dau Bach Hdla31%kh6i lupng;
Dau thd Azeri Light (Azerbaijan), kha nang thay the dau Bach Ho la 7% khdi lupng;
Hon hdp dau thdda phdl trdnLalang (Indonesia)+ Benchamas (Thai Lan), kha nang thay the dau Bach Hd la 79% khdi lupng;
Hon hpp dau thd da phoi tron Nile Blend (Sudan) + Belanak (Indonesia), kha nang thay the dau Bach Ho la 28% khdi lUOng,
Ket qua nghien cUu tren la mdt trong nhCng CO sd tham chieu quan trpng cho cdng tac danh gia, lua chon dau thd ve sau cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat. Tuy nhien khi Ung dung vao thuc te, viec phoi tron mdt loai dau ddn le vdi dau Bach Hd da bdc Id han che la kha nang thay the dau Bach Ho khdng cao do kho tim kiem dUpc dau thd cd tinh chat tuong dong dau Bach Hd hoac neu cd kha nang thay the cao thi san lupng cung cap khdng dap Ung du nhu cau
Hinh 1. Du bdo sdn iifong dau thd Bach Ho Sen ndm 2030 [1]
van hanh Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat tai 100%
cdng suat thiet ke (nhU hdn hpp dau Lalang va Benchamas cd kha nang thay the dau Bach Ho la 79% khdi luong, tuy nhien kha nang cung cap cac loai dau nay tai thdi diem nghien cufu cd tdng san lupng chi khoang 1,2 trieu tan/nam tuong dUOng 18% cdng suat che bien cua Nha may).
Nham kh§c phuc han che tren, Cdng ty CP Lpc hda dau Binh Son (BSR) da chu ddng tU nghien cUu va thay ddi phuong phap luan theo hudng phan loai dau thd thanh cac nhdm. Trong dd, cac chi tieu chat luong chinh gan gidng nhau sau do ket hop 2 hoac 3 nhdm dau thd cd tinh chat bd tro nhau (vi du dau thd cd thanh phan can chung cat d ap suat khi quyen - CKQ cao phdi vdi dau thd cd thanh phan CKQ thap hoac trung binh) de tao ra hdn hpp dau cd tinh chat gan giong vdi dau Bach Ho co sd. Tiep den tien hanh danh gia kha nang thay the dau Bach Hd cua dau hdn hpp sau phdl trdn, PhUOng phap nghien cUu nay se lam tang kha nang thay the dau Bach Hd cua cac ioai dau vi cd the dung hda, khac phuc duoc cac han che ve mat ky thuat,
Nguyen tac cua qua trinh nghien cUu danh gia, lua ehpn dau thd mdi la han che viec che bien thCr nghiem 2 loai dau mdi cung mdt !uc de giam thieu cac rui ro anh hudng ky thuat tiem an cua tirng loai dau thd ma chUa the nhan dien dupc thdng qua bao cao phan tich chat luong cua cac loai dau dd. Tuy nhien, khi mdt loai dau thd da dupc che bien thCr nghiem thanh cdng thi loai dau do dupc xep vao gid dau thd co sd cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat ciing vdi dau Bach Hd.
Nhu vay, trong qua trinh tim kiem, danh gia dau thd mdi tiep theo, dau thd co sd cd the la dau Bach Hd hoac la hdn hpp dau Bach Hd va dau da che bien thanh cdng. Dieu nay se lam tang dp linh ddng trong viec lUa chon dau thd mdi phii hop.
Qua trinh thuc hien theo phUdng phap luan nghien cUu mdi dUpc the hien thdng qua viec xay dung ky thuat danh gia dau thd va phUdng an lua chon dau thd nhu dudi day, 2.1. Ky thuat danh gid dau tho
Qua trinh danh gia kha nang che bien cua m d t loai dau t h d m d i ddi vdi cau hinh cdng nghe va thiet ke chi tiet hien hUu cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat dUdc thUc hien tren nen
OkU KKl SO 3/2020 3 3
HDA-CHE BIEN DAU KHI
tang: (i) xay dUng cac co sd tham chieu, so sanh, danh gia; (il) thiet lap quy trinh danh gia.
Viec xay dung cac cd sd danh gia gom cac budc nhu
Phan tich danh gia tinh chat, chat lupng dau thd Bach Hd. LUa ehpn cac chi tieu chat lUdng quan trong cd anh hudng Idn den kha nang van hanh cua Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat (ham lupng tUu huynh, chi sd acid - TAN, ham lUdng CCR, cd cau cac phan doan san pham) lam co sd de so sanh vdi dau thd mdi.
Nghien cLfu cau hinh, thiet ke cua cua tirng phan xudng cdng nghe, he thdng nhap, tdn chUa dau thd va san pham cua Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat de xac dinh dupc cac "cLTa sd van hanh" hien hQu, dd la cac gidi han ky thuat ma Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat cd the van hanh an toan, dn dinh, tin cay va dap Lfng dUpc yeu cau cac quy dinh hien hanh ve chat luong san pham va phat thai.
Thiet lap co sd dC lieu (database) ciia cac loai dau thd tren the gidi (ngudn gdc, trif lupng, chat lupng, thuong mai, van chuyen, cdng thUc tinh gia) nham phuc vu cdng tac tim kiem.lua chon, phan loai dau thd.
Xay dung cac md hinh md phdng dieu kien hoat ddng bang cac phan mem quy hoach tuyen tinh (LP) va md phdng cdng nghe (PetroSim) nham du doan co cau san pham, dieu kien van hanh, hieu qua kinh te cua Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat khi che bien dau thd mdi, Ket qua tinh toan tif cac phan mem LP va PetroSim se giiip udc tinh dupc ty le phdi trdn tdi da cua dau thd mdi cung nhu xac dmh dUdc cac quan ngaiky thuat ddi hdi phai tap trung lUu y va cd giai phap khac phuc phdng ngifa trong qua trinh che bien thir nghiem id dau dau tien, han che tdi da cac van de ky thuat phat sinh trong qua trinh che bien Id dau, tang tinh dam bao an toan van hanh.
Quy trinh danh gia dau thd mdi bao gdm cac budc nhUsau:
Budc 1: Tiep nhan, xU ly dCf lieu bao cao phan tich chat luong dau thd
Bao cao phan tich chat lUpng ciia cac loai dau thd khac nhau tren the gidi thudng duoc cung cap bdi cac doanh nghiep san xuat, kinh doanh dau (PVOIL, BR Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Total, ExxonlVlobil, Petronas). Tuy nhien, nhSm chu dpng hdn trong cdng tac tim kiem. lua chon nguon dau thd thich hop, BSR da trang bi them He thdng quan ly thdng tin dau thd (Crude Information Management System - CIMS) cung cap bdi Haverly
Systems, Inc. Khi mdt loai dau thd mdi dUpc lua chon danh gia, dCr lieu bao cao phan tfch chat lupng mdi nhat cua dau thd nay se dUpc sUdyng de dam bao tinh dai dien cua mau dau can nghien cUu.
Bao cao phan tich chat lUpng ciia loai dau thd can , danh gia se kiem tra cd day dii thdng tin tdi thieu can ; thiet cho qua trinh danh gia. Neu bao cao thieu cac chi tieu chat luong quan trpng thi mSu ciia dau thd mdi se lay ve va phan tich cac chi tieu do tai phdng thi nghiem ciia BSR hoac don vi phan tich ben ngoai de bo sung.
Sau khi dam bao cac thdng tin tren bao cao phan tich chat luong la phu hop cho qua trinh danh gia, cac thdng I tin nay se dUpc tiep tuc xCi ly/tdng hop tren phan mem | quan ly dif lieu dau thd H/CAMS ciia Haverly Systems, Inc | de chuyen thanh cac bao cao phan tich chat luong dien | tif la thdng tin dau vao (inputs) cua cac phan mem mo phdng LP va PetroSim.
Budc 2: Danh gia sp loai dau ddn
Can ci^vao thdng tin tren cac bao cao phan tich chat luong, cac chi tieu chat lUdng quan trpng cua loai dau tho j mdi cd lien quan den van chuyen va ton chUa (nhu diem 1 chay, dp nhdt, ap suat hoi RVP) se dUpc xem xet va doi chieu vdi thiet ke ciia he thdng nhap va tdn chda dau tho ciia Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat, Ngoai ra, cac chi tieu chat luong lien quan den ham luong tap chat trong dau I thd (S,TAN, CCR) cung dupc xem xet va so sanh vdi dau cd I sd de Udc tinh sd bd kha nang phoi trdn ciia dau mdi, Neu I nhu tinh chat ciia dau thd mdi khdng vupt qua gidi han I thiet ke/van hanh ciia he thdng nhap va tdn chira dau tho hoac ty le phdi trdn ciia dau thd mdi vdi dau thd ca sd la | qua thap (< 5% the tich) thi dau thd nay se bi loai bd.
Budc 3: Danh gia kha nang phdi trdn Dau thd mdi sau khi qua bUdc danh gia sd bd se tiep tuc dupc xem xet kha nang thay the dau cd sd thdng qua xac dinh ty le phdi trdn tdi da ciia dau tho mdi vdi dau CO sd va cac loai dau thd khac (da dUpc danh gia va che bien dai han tai Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat). Dieu nay dam bao hdn hpp dau thd sau phdi trdn gan nhu tuong ddng vdi dau thd ca sd va cdng suat che bien, tinh chat nguyen lieu/san pham/khi thai ciia cac phan xudng cdng nghe khi che bien hdn hop dau thd nay nam trong "cCfa so van hanh".
Md hinh md phdng dieu kien hoat ddn Loc dau Dung Quat bSng phan mem LP (Princ _- dung de danh gia tdng the dieu kien boat ddn' vao (tinh chat nguyen lieu), npi tai (can bang v
Nha may
^idupcsO '-)dtr\ dau
""'^'t, can
34 DAU KHI SO 3/2020
bang nang luong, tieu thu nang lupng, phu trp) va dau ra (tinh chat san pham va chat lupng khi thai).
Nguyen ly danh gia dau thd theo phuong phap quy hoach tuyen tinh la xac dmh ty le phoi trdn dau thd toi Uu nham thda man muc tieu tdi da Ipi nhuan che bien.
Trong dd, ma tran he sd cac dieu kien rang budc duac xay dung tif cac ham (phuong trinh/bat phUOng trinh) tuyen tinh md ta mdi quan he giCfa dieu kien dau vao (tinh chat ciia nguyen lieu), dieu kien npi tai (can bang vat chat, can bang nang lupng, tieu thu nang lUpng, phu tro) va dieu kien dau ra (chat lupng san pham), Td hop he sd ciia cac ham tuyen tinh noi tren (shift vectors) dupc quy hoach thuc nghiem tif dU lieu van hanh thuc te cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat thdng qua cac phuong phap hdi quy tuyen tinh hoac dupc tao ra bdi cac md hinh md phdng cac phan xUdng cdng nghe tren nen tang PetroSim. Cac dieu kien rang budc cua ma tran tuyen tinh dUpc lay tU
"cCfa so van hanh" hien hCru ciia Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat. Gia dau thd va san pham sd dung trong qua trinh tinh toan tdi Uu duoc tham khao tU bd gia du bao mdi nhat ciia Wood Mackenzie.
Cac phan xudng cdng nghe ciia Nha may se dUpc md phdng tren LP bang ky thuat "base-delta". Day la ky thuat md phdng mdi ciia cac phan mem quy hoach tuyen ti'nh (LP) hien dai dUOc ap dung ddi vdi cac qua trinh cdng nghe hda hpc phUc tap, trong dd ket qua md phdng (can bang vat chat, tinh chat, hieu suat san pham, tieu thu nang luong, phu trp) ciia mdt phan xudng cdng nghe Ung vdi mdt dieu kien san xuat thUc te dupc sir dung lam trudng hpp cosd (base-case), Khicd su thay ddi ve dau vao (tinh chat nguyen lieu, dieu kien van hanh) so vdi trudng hop Cd sd, phan mem LP se d u doan dau ra (dieu kien san xuat mdi ciia phan xUdng cdng nghe) can cu'vao mdc dd thay ddi (delta) ciia dU lieu dau vao so vdi trUdng hop co sd va dUa vao cac he sd tuyen tinh (shift vectors).
Kha nang phdi trdn cua dau thd mdi se dupc thUc hien nghien CLTU tren nhieu trudng hpp khac nhau (study- cases), trong dd cdng suat che bien va hdn hpp dau thd CO sd phdi trdn ciing vdi dau thd mdi duoc lay tC/ ke hoach san xuat ciia Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat trong tUdng lai ( 6 - 1 2 thang so vdi thdi diem nghien cifu). Kha nang phdi trdn tdi da ciia ciia dau thd mOl dUpc xac dinh thdng qua ty le phdi trdn Idn nhat ciia dau thd nay dng vdi mdt trudng hpp nghien cUu ma tai dd cdng suat che bien, tinh chat nguyen lieu/s^n pham/khi thai ciia cac phan xUdng cdng nghe da bat dau nam trong lan can gidi han ciia "cifa so van hanh" hien hUu.
Budc 4: Danh gia ky thuat
Sau khi da xac dinh duoc kha nang phdi trdn dau thd mdi vdi dau cosd Ung vdi cac trudng hpp nghien cdu khac nhau, qua trinh danh gia se tiep tuc vdi viec xem xet anh hudng ciia viec che bien hon hpp dau thd phdi trdn tuong Ung vdi cac trUdng hpp nghien cifu nay den dieu kien van hanh cac phan xUdng cdng nghe,
0 budc danh gia nay, tinh chat ciia dau thd don, dau thd hon hpp va tat ca cac ddng cdng nghe bao gdm nguyen lieu va san pham ciia tifng phan xudng cdng nghe se dupc xem xet chi tiet tren mpi khia canh ky thuat va ddi chieu vdi cac quy dinh ky thuat, tieu chuan chat luong. Dieu kien hoat ddng mdi cua cac phan xUdng cdng nghe trong dd cd tinh den cac thiet bj chinh nhu thiet bi trao doi nhiet. Id ddt, thiet bi phan ifng, thiet bi tai sinh cung duoc xem xet va so sanh vdi gidi han van hanh cho phep hien tai, Ngoai ra, kinh nghiem che bien dau thd mdi tai cac nha may loc dau tren the gidi duoc tham khao de phuc vu cdng tac danh gia ky thuat.
Tinh chat nguyen lieu, san pham, dieu kien hoat ddng cua tUng thiet bi, can bang vat chat, nang lUpng trong tifng phan xudng cdng nghe khi che bien hon hpp dau thd nghien cUu se dUOc du doan thdng qua cac md hinh md phdng tren phan mem PetroSim cua KBC. Cac md hinh md phdng nay la td hpp cac phuong trinh phi tuyen md ta cac qua trinh cdng nghe hda hpc trong nha may lpc dau (chung cat, reforming, cracking) dUpc xay dUng tren thu vien CO sd dU lieu (cac he nhiet ddng, cac he cau tir gdm cac tinh chat vat ly va hda ly ciia chiing), cac thuat toan lien quan den viec tinh toan cac tinh chat hda ly ciia cac cau tirva hdn hpp cau tif cung nhutinh toan cac thdng sd ciia thiet bi va cac thdng sd cdng nghe ciia qua trinh cdng nghe duoc md phdng.
Qua trinh md phdng cac phan xUdng cdng nghe ciia Nha may Locdau Dung Quattren nen tang PetroSim cung dupc thuc hien bang ky thuat "base-delta". Theo dd, mdt trUdng hop cd sd gdm cac dis lieu thiet ke ban dau ciia Nha may dUdc sir dung de xay dung md hinh cac thiet bi/phan xudng cdng nghe chinh. Tiep den, cac bd dU lieu day dii va tin cay (gdm cac thdng sd cdng nghe, can bang vat chat, can bang nang luong va tinh chat nguyen lieu, san pham) thu thap tif van hanh thuc te ciia tifng phan xudng cdng nghe se dUpc xir ly va nhap vao PetroSim de thuc hien tinh chinh cac md hinh. Trong qua trinh tinh chinh cac md hinh tif dU lieu thUc te, PetroSim se tao ra cac he sd thuc nghiem (calibration factors) tUOng tU nhu cac shift vectors ciia cac md hinh tren LP Khi cd sU thay ddi
ill XHI - Sd 3/2020
HOA-CHEBlEiyDAUKHI
ve dau vao (tinh chat nguyen lieu, dieu kien van hanh) so vdi trudng hpp co sd, cac md hinh se du bao dau ra (dieu kien san xuat mdi cua phan xudng cdng nghe) can cirvao mdc dp thay doi (delta) ciia dCr lieu dau vao so vdi trUdng hpp CO sd va dua vao cac he sd thuc nghiem (calibration factors) nhutrinh baydtren,
BSR so sanh ket qua chay md phdng ciia PetroSim cho cac trUdng hpp nghien ciiu tren vdi cUa sd van hanh ciia Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat. Neu cd thdng sd cdng nghe ciia thiet bi/phan xUdng hoac cd chi tieu chat lUpng nao cua nguyen lieu, san pham hoac khi thai vupt qua gidi ban ciia"cifasd van hanh"can nghien cdu dieu chinh tyle phdl trdn ciia dau thd mdi hoac giam cdng suat che bien (quay lai qua trinh danh gia tai budc 3), Cac thdng sd cdng nghe, chi tieu chat luong nao vupt qua gidi han hoac lan can gidi han ciia "cCfa sd van hanh" se dUOc xep vao danh sach cac quan ngai ky thuat (technical concerns). Ngoai ra, thdng tin tif cac sU cd, cac tdn tai ky thuat ghi nhan dUOc tai cac nha may lpc dau khac khi che bien loai dau thd dang danh gia cung dupc xem nhu la cac quan ngai ky thuat. Day la cac CO sd tham chieu quan trong trong cdng tac lap ke hoach va chuan bi cac phUdng an theo ddi, khac phuc phdng ngUa (countermeasures) trong qua trinh che bien thir nghiem Id dau thd mdi dau tien tren thUc te (fist cargo test run), dam bao Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat van hanh an toan, on dinh va tin cay, giam thieu cac van de ky thuat phat sinh trong qua trinh che bien dau thd mdi.
Budc 5: Che bien thif nghiem dau thd mdi Dau thd mdi sau khi da dupc xac dinh kha nang che bien qua 2 budc danh gia noi tren se dUOc bd sung vao
"gid" dau thd nguyen lieu de mua che bien thU nghiem thuc te khi cd cd hdi. Qua trinh chuan bi va trien khai thif nghiem mdt Id dau thd mdi gdm cac giai doan chinh:
-I- Lap ke hoach mua che bien thd nghiem 1 Id dau thd mdi. Khdi lupng Id thif nghiem tiiy thudc kha nang van chuyen tU cang den Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat.
Neu dau thd mdi la dau npi dia hoac d khu vUc lan can Viet Nam, cd the van chuyen b^ng tau Aframax (tai trong 80.000 - 120.000 tan) hoac nhd hdn, thi khdi lUong du kien mua la 300.000 - 600,000 thiing dau/ld. Neu dau thd mdi dupc nhap tif cac khu vUc xa Viet Nam (Tay Phi, My.,.), ph^i van chuyen bang tau Suezmax (tai trpng khoang 160.000 tan), thi khdi lupng du kien mua khoang 900,000 -1.000,000 thiing dau/ld.
-f- Can cd vao khdi luong dau thd mdi du kien mua.
1 suat van hanh dU kien, kha nang che bien cua dau cong
che bien thd nghiem.
-H Xac djnh khdi lupng va ty le phdi trdn dU kien ciia dau thd Cd sd trong giai doan che bien t h d nghiem dau thd mdi,
-I- Xac dinh bd gia du kien ciia dau thd ca sd va cac san pham (gom ca chi phi van chuyen va cac phu phi khac) theo trung b)nh 3 thang qua khd va thang hien tai tinh den ngay mua Id dau thd mdi.
+ Sif dung phan mem LP tinh toan loi nhuan che bien gdp (gross margin) cho trudng hop cd dau thd m6\
va trudng hop khdng cd dau thd mdi de xac dinh hieu qua kinh te ciia rieng Id dau thd mdi (chi tiet trinh bay bUdc 6).
Neu dau thd mdi ciia hieu qua che bien cao hdn dau cdsd tai thdi diem danh gia thi se tien hanh mua 1 Id dau tho mdi ve che bien,
-I- Khdi tao hd so quan ly su thay ddi (Management of change - MOC) che bien thif nghiem dau thd mdi v6i ty le ban dau dUa vao ket qua danh gia ky thuat. Viec khdi tao MQC nham dam biio viec thay ddi nguyen lieu che bien, cac tac ddng den dieu kien van hanh, cac van de ky thuat phat sinh trong qua trinh thif nghiem va ket qua thCt nghiem dupc luu vao hd so quan ly.
-h Phan tich mdi nguy, riii ro tlem an trong qua trinh che bien thd nghiem dua vao cac quan ngai ky thuat trong budc danh gia ky thuat va dUa ra cac giai phap khk phuc, phdng ngifa ddi vdi tifng mdi nguy, riil ro,
-I- Len phuong an chuan bi trien khai cac giai phap khac phuc, phdng ngi/a.
+ Khi dau thd mdi duoc nhap ve, tien hanh thi!
nghiem theo quy trinh thif nghiem dau thd mdi da dUOc phe duyet.
Budc 6: Danh gia ket qua che bien thif nghiem dau thd mdi
Dd lieu van hanh cua Nha may Loc dau Dung QuSt trong giai doan che bien thd nghiem se duoc thu thap dl danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua Id dau thd mdi sau khi hoan thanh che bien thd nghiem, bao gdm:
+ Can bang vat chat, tieu thu xuc tac, hda pham, nang luong phu trp.
+ Gia trung binh cac loai dau thd da mua va che bien' gia trung binh cac loai san pham xuat ban va c:ac chi phi lien quan gdm: chi phi van chuyen. dich vu r i y , bao hiem giam dinh.tauiai, chi phi mua ngoai te, phi v;,ianh thanh toan.,. trong giai doan che bien Id dau tho r-,oi.
da danh gia d bUdc 4 de xac djnh khoang thdi gian ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^.^ ^.^ ^^ ^. ^.^^ ^^^^ |. ^^^ ^^^^ ^^
Hinh 2. Quy trinh Sdnh gid dau thd mdi
cua viec che bien Id dau thd mdi vdi phuong phap luan nhu sau:
-^ Thiet lap mdt trUdng hpp co sd tren LP de md phdng qua trinh van hanh tren thUc te trong giai doan che bien thif nghiem Id dau thd mdi. Trong dd, cac thdng tin thu thap bao gdm: khdi luong va thanh phan dau thd che bien, cdng suat van hanh thUc te cac phan xUdng cdng nghe, hieu suat, chat lUpng san pham, tieu thy nang luong, phu tro, 9'a dau thd va san pham xuat ban.
-I- So sanh ket qua chay md phdng tren LP va ket qua thuc te. ThUc hien cac dieu chinh can thiet (tuning) de dat dupc ket qua tinh toan bang LP sat vdi ket qua thuc te.
Lpi nhuan che bien gdp (gross margin) tinh toan duoc cho trudng hop co sd se gan dung bang loi nhuan che bien gdp tren thUc te trong giai doan che bien Id dau thd mdi;
+ Sif dung phan mem LP de tinh toan Ipi nhuan che
bien gdp trong trudng hpp thay the Id dau thd mdi bang dau thdcdsd.
-I- So sanh Ipi nhuan cua 2 trudng hpp: trUdng hop cd che bien va khdng che bien Id dau thd mdi de tinh toan hieu qua kinh te cua rieng Id dau thd mdi (Crude added value-CAV),
Luu do cac budc danh gia kha nang che bien dau thd mdi dupc trinh bay tai Hinh 2.
2.2. Phuang an It/a chon dau tho
Qua trinh lua chon dau thd se dUpc thUc hien tren He thdng quan ly thdng tin dau thd-CIMS. Viec Ida chon dau thd se dupc thUc hien thdng qua viec phan nhdm dau thd theo cac yeu td nhu sau:
Phan nhdm theo dja chinh tn
Viec phan nhdm nham lua chon cac loai dau thd thudc cac quoc gia cd tinh hinh chinh trj on djnh, khdng cd chien tranh hay khiing bd dan den "tinh trang bat k h i khang - force majeure" khi thuc hien hpp ddng cung cap dau thd. Ngoai ra, kha nang van chuyen t d cang den Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat, quan he thuong mai giQa nudc sd tai vdi Viet Nam (lien quan den van de thue nhap khau) cung 6U(^c xem xet trong qua trinh lua chon. Theo dd, cac ngudn dau npi dia [tieu bieu la Bach Hd, Rdng, SuTd Den, Te Giac Trang...) va khu vUc Ddng Nam A (tieu bieu Champion - Brunei, Kimanis/Kikeh - Malyasia) dUpc Uu tien xem xet lua chon danh gia do cd khoang each dia ly gan Nha may va cd tinh hinh chi'nh trj dn djnh. Cac ngudn dau tU cac viing cd khoang each xa khu vUc Nha may (vi du nhu Bac My, Bac A,..) ddi hdi thOi gian van chuyen dai ngay va phai van chuyen bang tau kich cd Idn (thdng thudng la VLCC, ULCC) vupt qua kha nang tiep nhan ciia he thdng nhap dau thd thi khi lua chon danh gia can tim hieu them ve kha nang van chuyen, phan phdi ngudn dau thd nay (kha nang sang chuyen cac Id dau t d tau cd tai trpng Idn qua cac tau cd tai trong thap hon trudc khi van chuyen ve Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat).
Phan nhdm theo san lupng
Viec phan nhdm nham Ida chon cac loai dau thd cd san lUdng cung dng Idn va dn djnh tren thi trudng dau thd the gidi, dam bao ngudn cung nguyen lieu dn dinh va phii hpp vdi cdng suat che bien cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat, Theo dd, cac loai dau cd san lUpng cung dng tren 20.000 thijng/ngay trd len [tUdng dUOng vdi ty le phdi trdn tren 10% the tfch khi Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat van hanh tai 108% cdng suat thiet ke) dMc uu tien
DflU KHI - s o 3/2020 37 I
HOA-CHE BIEN DltU KHI
ve dau vao (tinh chat nguyen lieu, dieu kien van hanh) so vdi trUOng hop cO sd, cac md hinh se du bao dau ra (dieu kien san xuat mdi ciia phan xudng cdng nghe) can cdvao mUc dd thay ddi (delta) ciia dd lieu dau vao so vdi trUdng hop CO sd va dUa vao cac he sd thUc nghiem (calibration factors) nhutrinh baydtren.
BSR so sanh ket qua chay md phdng cua PetroSim cho cac trudng hpp nghien cdu tren vdi cda so van hanh ciia Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat, Neu cd thdng sd cdng nghe cua thiet bi/phan xUdng hoac cd chi tieu chat lupng nao ciia nguyen lieu, san pham hoac khi thai vUOt qua gidi han ciia"cifasd van hanh"can nghien cdu dieu chinh tyle phdl trdn cua dau thd mdi hoac giam cdng suat che bien (quay lai qua trinh danh gia tai budc 3), Cac thdng sd cdng nghe, chi tieu chat luong nao vUpt qua gidi han hoac lan can gldl han cua "cda sd van hanh" se dUpc xep vao danh sach cac quan ngai ky thuat (technical concerns), Ngoai ra, thdng tin t d cac su cd, cac tdn tai ky thuat ghi nhan dUpc tai cac nha may lpc dau khac khi che bien loai dau thd dang danh gia cung duoc xem nhU la cac quan ngai ky thuat. Day la cac CO sd tham chieu quan trong trong cdng tac lap ke hoach va chuan bi cac phUOng an theo ddi, khac phuc phdng ngda (countermeasures) trong qua trinh che bien thif nghiem Id dau thd mdi dau tien tren thdc te (fist cargo test run), dam bao Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat van hanh an toan, dn dinh va tin cay, giam thieu cac van de ky thuat phat sinh trong qua trinh che bien dau thd mdi.
Budc 5: Che bien thd nghiem dau thd mdi Dau thd mdi sau khi da dUpc xac djnh kha nang che bien qua 2 bUdc danh gia ndi tren se dUpc bd sung vao
"gid" dau thd nguyen lieu de mua che bien thd nghiem thuc te khi cd cohdi. Qua trinh chuan bj va trien khai thd nghiem mdt Id dau thd mdi gdm cac giai doan chinh:
-I- Lap ke hoach mua che bien thd nghiem 1 Id dau thd mdL Khdi luong Id thd nghiem tiiy thudc kha nang van chuyen tif cang den Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat.
Neu dau thd mdi la dau npi dia hoac d khu vUc lan can Viet Nam, cd the van chuyen bang tau Aframax (tai trpng 80.000 - 120,000 tan) hoac nhd hon, thi khdi lUpng dU kien mua la 300.000 - 600.000 thiing dau/ld. Neu dau thd mdi dupc nhap t d cac khu vUc xa Viet Nam (Tay Phi, My,..), phai van chuyen bang tau Suezmax (tai trong khoang 160.000 tan), thi khdi luong dU kien mua khoang 900.000 -1.000.000 thiing dau/ld.
+ Can cd vao khdi lUdng dau thd mdi dU kien mua, cdng suat van hanh dU kien, kha nang che bien cua dau mdi da danh gia d budc 4 de xac djnh khoang thdi gian
che bien thd nghiem,
+ Xac dinh khdi lupng va ty le i .o. • -dUkiencOa dau tho CO sd trong giai doan che t n .i.f nghiem dau thd mdi,
-I- Xac djnh bd gia du kien cCia -'•-•^' ti^d co sd va cac san pham (gdm ca chi phi van chuyen va cac phu phi khac) theo trung binh 3 thang qua khd va thang hien tai tinh den ngay mua Id dau thd mdi.
-i- Sd dung phan mem LP tinh toan loi nhuan che bien gdp (gross margin) cho truOng hpp cd dau tho mdi va trudng hop khdng cd dau thd mdi de xac dinh hieu qui kinh te cua rieng Id dau thd mdi (chi tiet trinh bay budc6), Neu dau thd mdi cua hieu qua che bien cao hdn dau cosd tai thdi diem danh gia thi se tien hanh mua 1 Id dau tho mdi veche bien.
+ Khdi tao hd so quan ly sU thay ddi (Management of change - MOC) che bien thd nghiem dau thd mdi vcli ty le ban dau dua vao ket qua danh gia ky thuat. Viec kh6i tao MQC nham dam bao viec thay ddi nguyen lieu che bien, cac tac ddng den dieu kien van hanh, cac van de ky thuat phat sinh trong qua trinh thd nghiem va ket qua thil nghiem dupc luu vao hd so quan ly.
+ Phan tich mdi nguy, riii ro tiem an trong qua trinh che bien thd nghiem dua vao cac quan ngai ky thuat trong bUdc danh gia ky thuat va dUa ra cac giai phap khk phuc, phdng ngda ddi vdi tdng mdi nguy, rui ro,
-1- Len phuong an chuan bi trien khai cac giai phap khac phuc, phong ngda.
+ Khi dau tho mdi duoc nhap ve, tien hanh thiJ nghiem theo quy trinh thd nghiem dau tho mdi da dUK phe duyet.
Budc 6: Danh gia ket qua che bien thif nghiem dau thd mdi
Dd lieu van hanh cua Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat trong giai doan che bien thd nghiem se dupc thu thap de danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua 16 dau tho mdi sau khi hoan thanh che bien thd nghiem, bao gdm:
+ Can b^ng vat chat, tieu thu xuc tac, hda pham, nang lupng phu tro.
+ Gia trung binh cac loai dau tho ds mua va ch^ bie'rt gia trung binh cac loai san pham xuat oan va cac chi phi lien quan gdm: chi phi van chuyen, dir -u bay, bao hiem giam dinh,tauiai,chi phi mua ngoai te, ib^olarhth nf toan.,. trong giai doan che bien Id dai i rnpi
Sd dung phan mem LP de tinh toa eu n^^ . . ..
36 flAU KHI so 3/2020
Khdng dat
Che bien thd nghiem
Danh gia hieu qua kinh te sau che bien thd nghiem
Hinh 2. Quy trinh 3dnh gid dau thd mdi
• cCia viec che bien Id dau thd mdi vdi phuong phap luan nhusau:
-^ Thiet lap mdt trudng hop co sd tren LP de md phdng qua trinh van hanh tren thuc te trong giai doan
^. che bien thd nghiem Id dau thd mdi. Trong dd, cac thdng , tin thu thap bao gdm: khdi Idong va thanh phan dau thd
^1 che bien, cdng suat van hanh thdc te cac phan xUdng cdng nghe, hieu suat, chat luong siin pham, tieu thu nang lupng, phu trp, gia dau thd va san pham xuat ban.
+ So sanh ket qua chay md phdng tren LP va ket qua thuc te. Thuc hien cac dieu chinh can thiet (tuning) de dat
• dupc ket qua tinh toan bang LP sat vdi ket qua thUc te.
Loi nhuan che bien gdp (gross margin) tinh toan dUpc cho trudng hpp cd sd se gan diing bang Ipi nhuan che bien gdp tren thUcte trong giai doan che bien Id dau thd mdi, -I- Sd dung phan mem LP de tinh toan Ipi nhuan che
bien gop trong trudng hpp thay the Id dau thd mdi bang dau thd cosd.
+ So sanh lpi nhuan cua 2 trudng hop: trudng hop cd che bien va khdng che bien id dau thd mdi de tinh toan hieu qua kinh te ciia rieng 16 dau thd mdi (Crude added value - CAV).
Luu do cac budc danh gia kha nang che bien dau thd mdi dupc trinh bay tai Hinh 2.
2.2. Phuang an lua chon dau tho
Qua trinh lua ehpn dau thd se dupc thuc hien tren He thdng quan ly thdng tin dau thd-CIMS, Viec lua ehpn dau thd se ddoc thuc hien thdng qua viec phan nhdm dau thd theo cac yeu td nhu sau:
Phan nhdm theo dia chinh trj
Viec phan nhdm nham lua chon cac loai dau thd thudc cac qudc gia cd tinh hinh chinh tri dn djnh, khdng cd chien tranh hay khung bd dan den "tinh trang bat kha khang - force majeure" khi thuc hien hop ddng cung cap dau thd. Ngoai ra, kha nang van chuyen t d cang den Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat, quan he thdong mai gida nudc sd tai vdi Viet Nam (lien quan den van de thue nhap khau) cung duoc xem xet trong qua trinh lua chon. Theo dd, cac ngudn dau ndi dia (tieu bieu la Bach Hd, Rdng, SuTd Den, Te Giac Trang,..) va khu vUc Ddng Nam A (tieu bieu Champion - Brunei, Kimanis/Kikeh - Malyasia) dupc Uu tien xem xet lua chon danh gia do cd khoang each dia ly gan Nha may va cdtinh hinh chinh tri dn dinh. Cac ngudn dau tU cac vung cd khoang each xa khu vUc Nha may (vi du nhu Bac My, Bac A ..) ddi hdi thdi gian van chuyen dai ngay va phai van chuyen bang tau kich cd Idn (thdng thudng la VLCC, ULCC) vUOt qua kha nang tiep nhan cua he thdng nhap dau thd thi khi lUa chon danh gia can tim hieu them ve kha nang van chuyen, phan phdi ngudn dau thd nay (kha nang sang chuyen cac Id dau t d tau cd tai trpng Idn qua cac tau cd tai trpng thap hon trddc khi van chuyen ve Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat).
Phan nhdm theo san luong
Viec phan nhdm nham lua ehpn cac loai dau thd cd san lUdng cung dng Idn va on dmh tren thi trudng dau thd the gidi, dam bao ngudn cung nguyen lieu dn dinh va phii hpp vdi cdng suat che bien cua Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat, Theo dd, cac loai dau cd san lupng cung dng tren 20,000 thijng/ngay trd len (tuong dUdng vdi ty le phdi trdn tren 10% the tich khi Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat van hanh tai 108% cdng suat thiet ke) dupc du tien
DAU KHI - sd 3/2020 37
HOA-GHE BIEN DAu KHI
Ida ehpn. Cac loai dau cd san lupng thap hon chi duoc xem xet neu kha nang thay the dau thd cd sd tren 20% the tich va thdng thudng dUdc mua theo chuyen (dang spot).
Phan nhdm theo tinh chat
Cac loai dau thd nam trong vung cd dja chinh trj tot, cd san lUpng cao va dn dinh se ddpc Uu tien lua ehpn va tiep tuc phan nhdm theo tinh chat, Theo dd, cac loai dau thd cd tinh chat gan gidng nhau se duoc xep cung mdt nhdm. Viec phan nhdm nham xac dinh nhdm dau thd cd tinh chat gan gidng vdi dau thd Bach Hd, hoac xac djnh dUOc phUdng an phdi trdn cac nhdm cd tinh chat bd trd nhau de hdn hop sau phdi trdn se cd tinh chat tUdng duong dau Bach Hd.
Thdng thudng, tren thj trudng giao dich dau thd, ty trpng API ciia dau thd, chi sd acid ciia dau (TAN) va ham lUOng luu huynh trong dau thd la 3 chi tieu chat lUOng chinh dupc tham chieu de quyet dinh gia ban cua tdng loai dau (chUa tinh den chi phi van chuyen va cac loai phu phi khac). Tuy nhien, do dac thu ciia Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat cd Phan xddng RFCC (cracking phan doan CKQ ciia dau thd bang xiic tac tang sdi) la phan xUdng chinh san xuat cac phan doan chinh pha xang va dau diesel nen cdng suat che bien va dieu kien van hanh cua phan xudng nay se anh hudng Idn den hieu qua che bien. Vi vay, viec lua chon, phdi trdn dau thd se duclc nghien cdu theo djnh hudng hieu suat phan doan CKQ ciia dau thd tUdng dUdng vdi dai cdng suat van hanh tieu bieu cua RFCC va ham luong can CCR trong phan doan nay nam trong khoang gidi han khdng anh hudng Idn den can bang nhiet cung nhd tuan hoan xuc tac ciia phan xudng. Theo dd, 2 chi tieu chat lupng nay duoc Ida chon de phan nhdm dau thd giup thuan tien trong viec danh gia, khao sat kha nang phdi trdn cua cac loai dau thd de che bien ciing vdi Bach Hd. Mdc gidi han cua cac chi tieu nay dUpc xac dinh thdng qua cae cd sd sau:
+ Gian dd phan bd dau thd theo ham lupng CCR va hieu suat phan doan CKQ xay dung t d ngan hang d d lieu dau thd tren he thdng CIMS (Hinh 3),
-I- Cdng suat van hanh thdng thudng ciia phan xudng RFCC la 96%,tdong dUong hieu suat phan doan CKQ cua nguyen lieu dau thd khoang 45% the tich.
+ Gidi han ham lUpng CCR trong nguyen lieu CKQ ciia phan xddng RFCC la 2 - 3,5% khdi lupng, tUdng duong cac mdc 1 -1,7% khdi luong trong dau
thd neu hieu suat phan doan CKQ cua dau thd khoang 45% the tich (-48% khdi idOng).
Qua cac each phan nhdm tren, cac loai dau thd se dUpc phan thanh 7 nhdm khac nhau:
-t- Nhdm 1: cd ham idOng CCR thap, nhd hon 1% khdi idOng; hieu suat phan doan CKQ nhd hon 20% the tich.
-I- Nhdm 2: cd ham lUpng CCR thap, nhd hon 1% khdi lupng; hieu suat phan doan CKQ t d 20 - 30% the tich.
+ Nhdm 3: cd ham lUpng CCR thap, nhd hon 1% khdi lupng; hieu suat phan doan CKQ t d 30 - 45% the tich,
-I- Nhdm 4: cd ham lupng CCR t d i -1.7% khdi Idpng; hieu suat phan doan CKQ t d 20 - 30% the tich,
+ Nhdm 5: cd ham luong CCR t d 1 -1,7% khdi lUpng; hieu suat phan doan CKQ tU 30 - 45% the tich.
-I- Nhdm 6: cd ham lupng CCR cao, Idn hdn 1,7% khdi Idpng; thanh phan can khi quyen t d 30 - 45% the tieh.
+ Nhdm 7: cd ham lUpng CCR Idn hdn 1,7% khdi lupng;
hieu suat phan doan CKQ cao, Idn hon 45% the tich.
Phan bd cac loai dau thd theo ham Idpng CCR va hieu suat phan doan CKQ dupe md ta trong Hinh 3.
Hal Thach-fflOSTlflh c O ^-^^f^^
O
.«mi 0 ° o W t l Midland
Hinh 3. Phdn bo dau tho theo ham luang CCH va hieu suat phan dogn C-
3 8 OiU KHi - s o 3/2020
Ket qua phan nhdm dau thd theo tinh chat cho thay viec tim kiem ddpc loai dau thd mdi cd tinh chat tddng ddng, cd the thay the hoan toan dau thd Bach Ho la rat khd khan. Nhu vay, neu chi danh gia va Ida chon dau thd tren co sd chi phdi trdn 1 loai dau vdi Bach Ho thi rat han ehe danh sach dau thd tiem nang, Thay vao do, phdOng an phdl trdn nhieu loai dau thd thude cac nhdm khac nhau nhung ed tinh chat bd trp eho nhau (vi du dau thd cd ham luong CCR cao, luu huynh thap, se duoe phdl trdn ciing vdi loai dau cd ham lUpng CCR thap, luu huynh cao; dau thd it naphtha, nhieu CKQ dUdc phdi trdn cung dau ed nhieu naphtha va it CKQ) de cd dUOc hon hpp dau thd cd tinh chat gan gidng dau thd Bach Hd se cd tinh kha thi cao. Can ed vao Hinh 3, kha nang phdi trdn cac nhdm dau vdi dau Bach Hd dupc tdm tat nhUsau:
-1- Nhdm 1: Phu hpp trdn chung vdi nhdm 3/5/6/7 de che bien vdi dau thd Bach Ho,
-I- Nhdm 2: Phdong an phdi trdn tuong t u nhdm 1;
tuy nhien kha nang che bien cao hdn do cd hieu suat phan doan CKQ cao hon.
+ Nhdm 3. Cd the tron ddn le vdi Bach Hd vdi f^ le kha tot. Cd the trdn vdi cac nhdm cdn lai de che bien vdi Bach Hd.
+ Nhdm 4: PhUOng an phdi trdn tUOng tU nhdm 2;
tuy nhien kha nang che bien thap hdn do ed CCR cao hon.
-h Nhdm 5: Cd the trdn ddn le vdi Bach Hd vdi ty le kha tot. Cd the trdn vdi cae nhdm cdn lai de che bien vdi Bach Hd.
+ Nhdm 6; Phu hop trdn ehung vdi nhdm 1/2/3/5 de che bien vdi Bach Hd.
-I- Nhdm 7: Phu hpp trdn chung vdi nhdm 1/2/3 de ehe bien vdi Bach Ho,
3. Ket qua
Vdi phuong an phdi trdn nhieu loai dau thd thudc cac nhdm cd tinh chat bd trp nhau, qua cac bUdc danh gia bang phan mem LP va danh gia ky thuat, nhieu loai dau thd ed tinh chat "xau" (dac diem rieng le sai biet nhieu so vdi dau thd Bach Hd) nhdng van cd the che bien ddpc tai Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat vdi ty le phdi trdn cao va trong nhieu trUdng hpp, hdn hpp dau phdi trdn ed the thay the hoan toan dau thd Bach Hd.
Tinhden thang 9/2019, Nha may Locdau Dung Quat da danh gia va lua chon ddpc 67 loai dau khac nhau, trong
do cd 9 loai dau thd Viet Nam khdng tinh dau Bach Hd va 58 loai dau nhap khau (16 loai ed tiem nang eao ve san Idpng cung nhd kha nang che bien). Ngoai ra, Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat da che bien thd nghiem thanh cdng 19 loai dau thd trong do cd 9 ioai da duoc dua vao che bien thudng xuyen vdi tdng ty le phdi trdn cd the thay the tren 80% dau thd Bach Hd, rieng loai dau thd Azeri Light (Azerbaijan, san lUpng trung binh 700 nghin thiing/ngay) cd the thay the den 60 - 70% dau thd Bach Hd.
Dae biet, trong thang 5/2019, Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat da che bien thanh edng IddauWTI Midland (USA, cd san Idpng khai thac Idn, trung binh 3 trieu thiing/ngay) vdi ty le phdi trdn len den 30% the tich tai cdng suat che bien 108% so vdi cdng suat thiet ke. Day la Id dau thd cd ngudn gdc t d My landau tien duoc nhap khau va che bien thanh cdng tai Viet Nam, cd y nghTa quan trpng gdp phan eai thien can can thuong mai gida Viet Nam va My, 4. Chien lUtfc dau tho trong tt/dng lai
Hien tai, Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat v3n dang che bien khoang 85% dau t h d trong nUdc (chii yeu la Bach Hd, Te Giac Trang, SUTd Den, Rdng - Ca Tam va Rang Ddng) va 15% dau t h d nhap khau de tan d u n g loi the ve thdi gian va ehi p h i van chuyen ciia cae ngudn dau ndi dia. Tuy nhien, eae ngudn dau t h d ndi dja khac cung dang ed xu hUdng suy giam san Idpng khai thac (Hinh 4) se tiep tuc (a thach thdc Idn ddi vdi nhiem vu duy tri ngudn nguyen lieu dn dinh va du dap dng cdng suat che bien hieu qua cua Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat trong giai doan hien nay cho den khi hoan thanh d d an nang cap m d rdng (du kien vao nam 2024).
Ngoai ra, viec Chinh phii d d n g y giam thue nhap khau dau t h d t d 5% xudng 0% ke t d ngay 1/11/2019 da m d ra eo hdi Idn de nhap khau dau t h d t d eae ngudn dau cd t r d lupng Idn va kha nang ehe bien cao tai Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat (nhu dau Azeri Light ciia Azerbaijan). Vi vay, ke tU nam 2020 eho d e n 2024, BSR se tang dan ty t r o n g dau t h d nhap khau de thay the dau t h d trong nddc ngay cang sut giam va muc tieu cd the dat den 5 1 % dau nhap khau ngay t r o n g nam 2020. Dieu nay khdng ehi giup BSR chii d d n g ngudn dau t h d dau vao ma cdn tao thuan Ipi cho viec xuat khau san pham xang dau khi thj t r u d n g trong nddc gap khd khan va lpi t h e khi ban dau t h d FQ xuat khau khdng phai chiu thue.
Giai doan sau nang cap m d rdng, cau hinh Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat ed nhieu thay ddi. Theo do, cdng suat che bien tang len 130% so vdi cdng suat thiet ke; nguyen lieu dau t h d la 100% dau nhap khau (la h o n h p p dau t h d
DAJ KHI - so 3/2020
HOI-CHE BIEK D i u KHI
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2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 .BachHo - T e G i a c M n g .Si/TiiOen RangDong . D a l H i i n g . ChimSao -Ruby .Rong-CaTam
Hinh4. Dubdoidn luang dau thd VielNam tU2019 - 2024 [5]
ESPO eiia Lien bang Nga va Murban ciia UAE) cd ham lupng luu huynh cao gap 40 lan so vdi nguyen lieu thiet ke ban dau (tdi da la 1,2% khdi lUdng so vdi ban dau la 0,03% khdi luong). Nha may Loc dau Dung Quat dUpc bd sung them mot sd cum phan xudng edng nghe nham dam bao toan bd san pham dap dng dupe tieu ehuan chat lupng Euro V, chat lUpng eua khi thai dap dng tieu chuan mdi trudng. Can cU vao "cda sd van hanh mdi" sau nang cap md rdng, BSR da xac djnh so bd duoc 35 loai dau thd t d cae khu vUe khac nhau ed the thay the 2 loai dau thd thiet ke ESPO va Murban, 5. Ket luan
Viec nghien cdu va ap dung thanh cdng giai phap da dang hda nguyen lieu cd y nghia quan trpng trong bdi canh hien nay khi dau thd Bach Hd dang suy giam nghiem trpng ve san Idpng va tinh ehat; gdp phan dam bao ngudn dau thd eung cap du cho Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat van hanh on dinh tai 100% cdng suat
thiet ke hoac cao hon ma var ^'O ^^p dng toan bd cac tieu ehuan san pf.jm va moi trudng;
ddng thdi mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao t d viec che bien cac ngudn dau thd cd gia thap hon so vdi dau Bach Hd.
Ben canh dd, thanh tuu nghien cdu, kinh nghiem ap dung thanh cdng giai phap tao tien de cho cdng tac danh gia va Ida ehpn dau tho cho Nha may Lpc dau Dung Quat sau khi nang cap md rdng, gdp phan tiet giam chi phi san xuat, tang hieu qua san xuat kinh doanh trong mdi trudng toan cau hda nhU hien nay.
Tai lieu tham khao
1 W/oodMackenzie. Binh Son Refining Si Petrochemical Co. Crude market study (final report), 15/5/2013.
I. Teehnip Consortium. Sd" tay van han/i cdc phdn xudng cong nghe cua Nhd mdy Loc dau Dung Qudt. 2010.
3. BSR. Tieu chuan cO sd sdn pham dau mo cua Nhd mdy Loc ddu Dung Qudt. 2019.
4. BSR, Quy dmh ky thuat - Ddu tho va cdc dong cong nghe, phu trg, phdt thai cua Nhd may Loc dau Dung Qudt. 2018.
5. PVOIL. Cung cap thdng tin sdn lugng dau tho giai dogn 2019- 2024 (cap nhat). Cdng van so 2930/DVN-DT. 17/4/2018.
SOLUTION TO DIVERSIFY CRUDE FEEDSTOCK FOR DUNG QUAT REFINERY
Dang Ngoc Dinh Diep
Binh Son Refining and Petrocliemical Joint Stod Company Email; [email protected]
Summary
The paper presents the solution to search, evaluate and select alternative sources of crude oil to replace Bach Ho crude partly or entirely to diversify the feedstock and ensure stable processing capacity for Dung Quat Refinery without having to revamp the refiner|
configuration.
The solution has identified 67 kinds of potential alternative crude, including 9 kinds of Vietnamese crude and 58 kinds of imported crude. So far, the refinery has been processing 19 different kinds of alternative crude beside Bach Ho which help to ensure suflicientfeed supply for its stable, reliable and beneficial operation.
Key words: Integrity operating window (lOW), diversify crude feedstock. Bach Ho crude, Dung Quat Refinery.
4 0 OAU KHi - s o 3/2020
