Dien hat nhan

Dien hat nhan

va an ninh nang iLppng

THS. NGUYEN H t f U KHOA

Trifcfng Cao d a n g D i e n lilc T h a n h p h o Ho Chi M i n h

1. Tong quan ve t i n h hmh tieu t h u nang luorng toan cau

T I E U T H U D I H N N A N C

Su phit tnon dien tren to.iii tlie gioi tJni; truni; bin 2.4'^ii mdi n.im tu nim 2000 den nam 2030. Tii 23, nghin t)' kWh v.io nim 2015 vi 31,8 ty kWh vio nii 2030. Cac ngudn ning Iflo'ng so' cap dflcfc sfl dung c phat dien da co sfl thay doi dang ke qua ho'n 4 thap k

Trillion Kilowailhours

2 0 " 5 2020 2025 2030 2 0 0

1 5 0 -

100

50

Quadrillion B l u H story

Liquids (Including Biofuelsj

r.nai ^ ^

_ ^ ^ ' ^ Natural Gas

Projaclion'i

RenewaDles {Excluding Bioluels)

Nuclear

1980 1995 2 0 0 6 2015 2030 Nhu cau cua cac n g u o n n a n g lUong t r e n The g i d i

( N g u o n : W o r l d Energy Projections Plus 2 0 0 9 ) .

dau se tang tfl 85 trieu thung mfii ngay trong nam 2006 selen den 106 tneu thung moi ngiy trong nam 2030.

Trfl Ifldng dau mo tren toan the gidi vao khoang 3 GTOE (Giga Ton Oil equivalence). Ngfldi ta cho ring chi CO the kliai thac dau trong khoang 40 nam niia, v<^i mflc tang nhfl hien nay thi gia dau se tang cao la dieu khong the tranh khoi, hOn nfla 2/3 trfl IflOng dau chu yeu la tap trung cf vting Trung dong la kliu xofc von khong on dinh ve chinh tn.

LUdng d i e n n a n g d i / o c p h a t t i r cac n g u o n ( N g u o n : W o r l d E n e r g y P r o j e c t i o n s Plus 2 0 0 9 ) .

Theo bao cao cua to chiic EIA, miic tieu thu nang Ifldng ciia the gi6i dfldc dfl bao se tang 44% trong thdi gian 24 nam, tii nam 2006 den 2030. Cac nguon nang Ifldng hoa thach dfldc mong ddi la se tiep tuc cung cap cho hau het nhu cau sii dung ciia the gidi. Trong do cac dang nguon nang Ifldng tai tao dfldc sil dung de phit ra dien se tang san Ifldng dien trung binh 2.9% mdi nam.

TIEU THU D A U

Dau da tttog va co the vin se diidc xem la ngu6n nang llidng Sd cip chu y^u cho the gicfi. Theo lEO nhu cau ve

North America r « n - O E C D Asia OECD Europe OECD Asia Central and South America Middle East Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Africa

Million Barrels per Day Nhu cau v l dau cOa cac n h o m Quoc gia

[Nguon: World Energy Projections Plus 2 0 0 9 ) .

Sd 83 (2/2012) NANG LUONG VliT NAM [33]

NHAN D I N H - O a B A O .

T l £ U THU KHI T U N H I £ N

Middle East Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Non-OECD Asia Africa United States Central & South America Australia/New Zealand Other OECD

0 2 4 6 e 10 12 Trillion CuDic Feet Sin lirtfng cung zSp khi ti^ nhlSn ci:ia cdc nUdc.

(Ngudn: WorldEnergy Projections Plus 2009)

Vi^c sin xult khi ti^ nhifin trSn th^ gidi c5n t5ng thim 48 nghin ty feet kh6i tii 2006 din 2030. Sil dyng khi t\i nhiln tang nhanh mpt phan cung 1^ do vi^c suf dving khi tii nhiln lam nhiln li|u c6 hi|u su^t cao trong cdc nhi may diln sOf dung cac turbine khi. Theo thdng kl thi vao nam 2006 sin lu^ng di|n dxipc sin suit ra tii khi tfl nhiln chiem khoing 32% vi se la 35% vio nim 2030.

Tl£U THU THAN D A Percent 100

80 -

H2 . 4 2

I

dinh t$p trung: My chilm 28%, Nga chilm 19%, Tnmg qudc chi^m 14%, Australia vi New Zealand li 9%.

Di^n phit ra til ning lifting h^t nhin dit^c d\f doin la se ting tii klioing 2.7 nghin ty kWh vio nim 2006 lln din 3.8 nghin t^ kWh vio nim 2030, khi c6 s\f lo ling vl vi^c ting gii nhiln li^u h6a th^ch, vin d l an ninh nang llidng vi sv( phdt thii khi giy hi^u ting nhi kinh ding vdfi si^ phdt triln vl ky thujt vi cdng suit cua cic nhi mdy hgt nhin mdi. Mie dii c6 giim siit nhiTng t^ trpng di^n h^t nhin so vdi t6ng sin lifdng di^n toin Thl gidi vin gifl d miJc 16% trong 20 nim qua. Dilu d6 c6 nghia li di|n h^t nhin vin giQ tdc dd phdt triln cin bing vdi cdc dgng ning lUdng khdc.

2. Dien hat nhan

Ning Ixidf^g nguyin tii hay cdn gpi li ning Iflpng hat nhin, li mdt dang ning Ifldng sinh ra khi c6 si^ phin hgch hgt nhin ho|c tdng hpp hat nhin.

Phin dng h?t nhin li m^t qud trinh vit 1^; khi hat nhin nguyin td tdng hdp hay phin hach thl mdt phin ning Ifldng bin kit cua hgit nhin se giii phdng vi sinh ra mdt Ifldng nang Iddng ciXc ldn. U235 khi phan bach se c6 2 - 3 neutron mdi dfldc giii phong ra, mdi neutron nay lai tilp tuc tao ra si^ phin b^cb bgt nhin tilp theo gpi li sfl phan hach bat nhan day chuyin.

Di|n nang lan diu tiln dfldc sin xuit bing nang Iflpng bgt nhan vio ngiy 20-12-1951 tgd Id thd nghi|m EBR- 1 cua My. Td miy di$n b^t nhin diu tiln sd dung 16 Grapbit nfldc nb? SMWe t?i Obninsk cua Nga. Bfldc sang the ky 21, vdi tic dpng ci^a biln ddi khi bin toin cau va an ninh ning Ifldng, xu hfldng phit trien dien hat nhin di cd nhflng thay ddi. Theo Hpi Ning Lfldng

1.25 ••United Stales BOECD Europe • C h i n a MJapai I HRi^s^a • I n d i a • O t h e r Asia • R e s t of Worfd Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total

Thj phin cda than dci vao cac nam 2006,2015,2030 (Nguon: World Energy Projections Plus 2009).

Theo IEO2009 mdc dp tilu thu than da trln t h l gidi se ting khoang 49% tfl nam 2006 den nam 2030, sfl ddng gdp cua than da vio mdc dp tilu thy ning Iflpng tren toan the gidi se ting tfl 27% trong nam 2006 len din 28% vao nam 2030. Tdng ngudn dfl trfl than di trln t h l gidi dfldc xac dinh vio khoang 929 ty tin, dflpc phan bd rdng khap trong dd 80% trfl Ifldng than dfldc xic

.Ti-iR 2010 2020 2030 Phat dien tir nang lu^ng hat nhan ii mot so khu vflc (Nguon: World Energy Projections Plus 2009).

[34] NANG LUpNC VliT NAM Sd 83 (2/2012)

nnlann«smni V ^ Phin ihig phan hach hat nhSn U235.

Hat Nhin Thl Gidi (World Nuclear Association), tdi thing 3 nim 2009 tren t h l gidi bien nay cd khoing 436 Id phan flng hat nhan dang bogt dpng d 30 qudc gia, vdi tdng cdng suit Ii 372 GWe.

Nhit Bin:

Nhit Ii qudc gia nhip khau tdi 80% cic nhu cau vl nang Ifldng. Lo phan flng bat nhin thflcfng m?i diu tien dfldc van binh vio nim 196d, va nang Ifldng hat nhan dfldc xem nhfl li "flu tien chien Ifldc qudc gia" tfl nam 1973. Hien nay Nhat cd 54 Id phin dng hat nhan, cung cip hdn 30% nhu cau dien nang va se tang len 40% vio nam 2017.

Phip:

Nfldc Phdp cd 5916 phin flng bat nhin dang dfldc van hanh vdi tdng cdng suit hdn 63 GWe, cung cap hdn 430 tf kWh mdi nam cho Ifldi dien (78%), diy la nen tang liu dii ve an ninh nang Iflpng cua Phap.

Phip li qudc gia xult khiu dien ldn nhat thl gidi vi gia sin xuit rit thip, Idi nhin hing nam thu vl vao khoang 3 ty Euro. Mfldi nam trd lai diy, Phip xuit kliiu 60-80 ty kWh mdi nim sang cic nfldc: Dflc, Bi, V My:

Li nfldc cd sin Ifldng di^n hzit nhin ldn nhit thl gidi, chilm klioing 30% tdng sin Ifldng diln bat nhin tren toin cau. My cd khoing 10416 phin dngh^t nhin (dflpc d|t t^i 31 Bang) vdi cdng suit chilm khoang 20% tdng sin Iflpng dien san xuit ra cua quoc gia niy, 49% san Iflpng di|n li td cac nha miy nhiet di|n sfl dung than, 22% sin Iflpng dien con I^i li tfl gas vi thuy dien.

Nga:

Nhi may dien hat nhan dau tien cua Nga vi cung la dau tien cua thl gidi phit ra dien li 16 phin dng Obninsk vao nam 1954. Den gifla nhflng nam 1980 Nga da cd 25 16 phan flng dfldc van hinh. Nen cdng nghiep hsit nhin di cd mot vin de Idn, do Ii tai ngn tfl nha miy Chernobyl nam 1986.

Number of Reactors In Operation Worldwide

U M T E D S T « i e s C f

KOREA, REPUBLC OF

ur^lTED KNGDOM CAMAC*

CZECH REFMBLIC SwrrZEFILAND nw.AAiD

MEXCO PAKISTAN ROMANIA SOUTH.

JgCTFCFILAMDS J 1

Tong so 438 Lo phin uiig dang van hanh tren the gio

56 83(2/2012) NANG r i35]

NHAN DINH-DU BAO

Nim 2006 Chinh phu Nga da the hi|n quyet tim pli.il tnen manh me nang Ifldng bat nhin vdi cdc dd in pliii triln tfl 2-3 GWe/nam din nim 2030, ddng thdi o111;.', md rdng xuit khiu ra thl gidi. Trong nim 2007, Ifl'^'<y, di^n nang phdt dfldc vio kliing 1016 ty kWh, tronj,. I"

160 ty kWh (16%) li tfl Ning Ifldng hat nhin, 679' in gas vi than di, 18% tfl thuy di^n.

Trung Qudc:

Trung qudc cd 11 16 phin flng dang hoat d^ng, 2'i In phin flng dang trong giai dogin xiy dflng, 8 nhi m.i) dang dflpc xiy dflng theo cdng ngb$ bi|n d?i nhit • ni Phip. Trung Qudc mudn ting cdng suit lln gip siu 11 n (60 GWe boic hdn) vio nim 2020, vi xa hdn li IM) GWe vio nam 2030.

3. Oidn hat nh&n Vi^t Nam

Theo Quylt dinh S6:906/QD-TTg cua Thu tfldng Ch i n 11 phu vl vile Phi duyet dinh hfldng quy hoatch phit ti icn dien hat nhin d Vi?t Nam giai doan din nam 2030:

- Nam 2020: td miy diln hat nhin diu tiln, cdng suat khoang 1000 MW vao vin hinh.

- Nam 2025: tdng cdng suit cac nhi miy dien hat niidii khoang 8.000 MW, chilm khoing 7% tdng cdng suit ngudn dien.

- Nim 2030: tdng cdng suit cac nhi may di|n hat nhin khoang 15.000 MW, chiem khoang 10% tdng cdng suit ngudn diln.

CAc Oja tnim M kMn xdy dtmg nha may dien hat nhan tai Vi6t Nam

Theo quy hogtch phit triln di|n life Qudc gia VII, nhi miy di?n hat nhin Ninh Thuin 1 vi 2 dfldc khdi cdng vio thing 12/2014 vi hoan thinh vio nam 2022 (trong dd phit di?n bai td miy sd 1 ciia 2 nhi may di|n hat nhan vio cudi nam 2020).

Vdi suit diu tfl 3.000 USD/lkW thi tdng gid tq bai td miy cua nha miy Ninh Thuin 1 (16 W E R the h^ 3 thilt kl cua Nga) cdng suit 2000MW la 6 ty USD, v6n diu W tfldng tfl cho nha mdy Ninh Thuan 2. So vdi nha miy nhi|t diln cd suit dau tfl 1,2-1,4 ti USD/IOOOMW, thi nha may dien nguyin tfl cd suit dau tfl gap hdn 2 lin, tuy nhiln gii thinh ban di|n lai rl hdn nhilu (t^

M y l i l , 5 c e n t / l k W h ) . M6 hinh nhi may diln hat nhan theo cdng ngh^ Nga duT kiln dUtfc xay di^g tai

NinhThuan.

[361 NANG Ll/ONG VIETNAM S6 83 (2/2012)

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56 83(2/2012) NANG Ll/ONG VI^TNAM [37]