Tac dong cua tien gu'i ve den hanh vi tieu dung
cua ho gia dinh Viet Nam
PHAM QUANG TRONG*
Tom tat
Bdi vie't sff dung mo hinh Working-Leiser vd bo sdlieu Khdo sdt mffc sdng ho gia dinh (HGD) cua Viet Nam (VHLSS) nam 2016, de ddnh gid mffc do tac dong cUa nhdn td tten gffi ve tff ngudi di cude'n hdnh vi tieu ddng cua HGD d Viet Nam. Ke't qud nghiin cffu cho thdy, tuy mffc do tde dong khong ldn nhung tiin gffi vi co dnh hudng den hdnh vi tieu dung cua HGD; tien gffi ve ddng gdp mot ty IS co the xem xet nhU mgt nguon thu nhdp vd tde dong tich ctfc do'i vdi dau tu gido due vd tdi chinh HGD.
Tii khda: tien gffi ve, hdnh vi tieu diing, hg gia dinh Summary
The paper uses Working-Leiser model and Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSS) 2016 to assess the impact of remittance from migrants on consumption behavior of households in Vietnam. The results show that the impact is not considerable but the remittance affects the consumption behavior of households; remittance can be considered as a source of income and it creates a positive influence on educational investment and household finance.
Keywords: remittance, consumption behavior, household
GIOI THIEU
Tien giJi ve tif ngifdi di cif ddng mdt vai trd quan trpng trong sif phat trien kmh te'cua HGD va dia phifdng c6 ngifdi xuat cif, nha't la d cac nifdc dang phat trien nhif Viet Nam. Sif ddng gdp kinh te'cua ngu'di di cu'difdc xem xet qua cac dong tien (hang) do ngifdi di cif (bao gdm ca di ctf ndi dia va di cif qud'c te) g^i ve. Theo dd, dong tien do ngifdi di cif gu'i ve dang trd thanh nguon thu nhap thtfdng xuyen, dn dinh cua mdt sd' HGD nhan tien gijfi ve d cac nu'dc dang phat trien, dong thdi cting la mot ye'u to' tich cifc de thiic day tang trifdng kmh t e d ca'p tinh va cap qud'c gia (Dietmar IVIeyer va AdelaShera, 2017).
Kieu hd'i ngay cang the hien nguon thu ngoai iB quan trpng d cac nu'dc dang phat trien va khdng th^ phu nhan md'i quan he chat che giiJa kieu hd'i va tang tru'dng kinh te cua quo'c gia nhan kieu hd'i (Flore
Gubert, 2005). Lu'dng kieu hdi ve Viet Nam da gan nhtf lien tuc tang qua c&c nam (chi giam vao nam 2009 - nam dau cda khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau). Nam 2019, vdi mu'c nhan 16,7 ty USD kieu hdi da la nam tht? ba lien tiep Viet Nam nam trong nhdm 10 nifdc nhan kieu hd'i Idn nhat the gidi, tang 4,4% so vdi nam 2018, difa mu'c binh quan nam trong thdi ky 2016-2019 len cao gS'p tren 2,33 lan mdc tu'dng u'ng cila thdi ky 1999-2015, va cao gap tren 34,7 lan mii'c tifdng tfng cua thdi ky 1993-1998 (Minh Nhung, 2020). Ben canh do, cdn cd mdt so lu'dng den do ngu'di di cU trifc tiep mang theo (khdng thdng qua he thd'ng tin dung va ngan hang) trong nhu'ng chuye'n ve tham que cd the la rat ldn. Nhm d goc dp vi md, nguon tai chinh tCf ngifdi di cif mang ve chinh la mdt nguon vd'n ddng gdp thiic day dau tu" va giai quye't cac van de ddi ngheo. Tuy nhien, hieu qua mang den tii ngu6n vd'n do ngu'di di cif mang ve lai phu thupc vao quyet dinh siJdung cua HGD nhan tien gffi ve. Nghien ciJu thifc nghiem nhifng tac ddng ciia tien gufi v^ de'n hanh vi tieu dhng cua HGD d Viet Nam, de cd can cu' de xua't giai phap hifdng vao nang cao hieu qua siV dung nguon vd'n ti^ ngu'di di cif ddi vdi HGD nhan den gffi ve, mang tinh cS'p thid't.
'Vien Nghien cu'u Quan ly kinh te Trung i/dng
Ngdy nhdn bdi: 06/04/2020; Ngay phdn bien: 14/04/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng. 22/04/2020
23
PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN COu
Sd lieu phuc vu cho nghien cffii nay du'dc trich Ipc ta "Bg sd lieu khao sat Mu'c sdng HGD ctia Viet Nam "
(vdi Slf cung cap va hd trd ky thuat cua Ngan hang The gidi va Chu'dng trinh Phat trien Lien hdp qud'c) nam 2016 va du'dc trien khai tren pham vi ca nu'dc. Dung lu'png mlu dieu tra difdc nlch lly nghien cffij la 9.399 hd/46.995 hp difpc khao sat tai 3.133 xa/phifdng, dai dien cho ca mfdc, cac vung, khu vifc thanh thi, ndng thdn va tinh/thanh phd'trifc thugc Trung ifdng.
Difa tren cd sd thifc nghiem tnfdc do cua Quinn, M.
A. (2005) va Osih, U. O. (2007), nghien ciiu sif dung md hmh Working - Leser (Working, 1943, Leser, 1963) de phan tich tac dong cua den gffi ve den hanh vi tieu diing cua HGD d Viet Nam. Ky thuat tinh loan cua Working - Leser chi rd md'i quan he tuyen tinh giifa phan bo ngan sach vdi logarit cua tong chi tieu va thoa man toan bo cac yeu clu td'i ifu can bang. Gia dinh cd ban cua mo hinh nay, gom: chi deu HGD la mdt ham tai san (vat chat va con ngifdi) va mdi tnfdng kinh te, trong do cac tai san nay cd the difdc tao ra de chi tieu (Juhan May va Ingrid Woolard, 2007). Phifdng trinh phan bo cho tifng hang muc hang hoa i du'dc tinh toan rigng biet, nhtf sau: thifc pham, khdng phai thifc pham, nha d, y te, giao due, hang hoa tieu dung, dau vao va cac rien ich ndng nghiep, dau tlf va hang hda lau ben. Trong qua trinh phan tich thay ddi cd clu tidu dilng ciia HGD, nghien cffii tap trung xem xet cac nhdm hang hda chu ye'u (chie'm ty trgng cao trong tieu dung ciia hd), de nhan dinh cac tac dpng cua ti^n gffi ve de'n hanh vi rieu dung cua HGD. Tac gia de xua't md hinh nghien ciiu nhu' sau:
W^_ = a+ P, ln(EJ + A, ln(RJ + A, ln(E,J%„ + fi, ln(ZJ + r,
Trong do:
Wj^^: Ngan sach phan bo cho tuHg danh muc hang (difdc tinh toan neng biet theo tirtig hang muc hang nhif sau: thiic pham (Food), khong phai Ihifc pham (Non food), nha d (Housing), y te (Health), giao due (Education), hang hoa tieu dung (Utility), dau vao va cac tien ich ndng nghiep (Agricultural inputs), dau tu' va hang hoa lau ben (Investmems and Durables) cho HGD h va d thdi gian t;
E^,: Tdng chi tieu HGD h d thdi diem t (1.000 VND);
Ri^^: Tong so' rien gffi ve HGD h nhan difdc nam t (1.000 VND);
ln(E|,,) * R^,: Bie'n tifdng tac; Sii tifdng tae ln(EJ * R cho phep rien gffi ve thay ddi he sd chan (intercept) cua du'dng cong Engel va xu hifdng bien cua chi ti6u, ttiu nhap va anh hifdng bien cua cac bie'n de'n chi tieu cho tffiig danh muc hang hoa;
Zj^^: Vector dac diem HGD va dac diem ciia chu hg;
+ Dac diem nhan khlu ciia hd bao gdm: sd' tre em phu thupc (so' ngu'di); so' ngifdi gia phu thudc (so ngu'di); so ngifdi trong do tudi Iao ddng (sd'ngu'di); md'i quan he; Mang lifdi di cif {=1 ne'u HGD cd ngu'di than, ban be hoac hang xdm di cif; =0 ne'u khac);
4- Dac diem ciia chu hp bao gom: Gidi tinh ciia chii hg (Gidi tinh ciia ho =1 khi chii hg la nam; =0 ne'u
gidi tinh khac); Trinh d-' iipc vfi'n cua c u hd (tinh bang so'nam cii :gc cua chii hp;
- v v---"! L-.J.16 au n a m UL .V- " ^ . g y Tinh trang hdn nhan ctia chu hg {-' chii hg da ke't hon; =0 ne'u khacK lu*', trang viec lara ciia chii hd (=1 "f" ^ hd khdng cd viec lam; =0 ne'u khac). ^,
a, P,, P,, P3, p^: Cac tham sd'chifa biet, the hidn su khac biet trong phSn bo^ngan sach cua HGD h. Dieu dd the hien stf khac bidt, rinh da dang trong phan chia ngan sach cua hg h; '
£- Sai sdmd liinh.
KET QUA NGHIEN cOU VA THAO LU^N
Ke't qua u-tfc Itftfng mo hinh Phan bd chi tidu cua HGD phti thudc vao nhieu ye'u td khac nhau, nhu": dac diem ciia chii hd (gidi rinh, ludi chu hd, trinh dp hgc van ciaa chii hd...), dac diem HGD (sd'ngu'di phu thudc, sd' thanh vien trong ho, vi tri dia ly ciia HGD...)... Tuy nhien, nghien ciiu nay tap trung vao phan tich cac he so' da difpc ddc lifdng cua bi6'n dpc lip: tien gffi ve l\i di cif ndi dia (Domestic remittances) va tiln gffi ve ttf dl cif qudc te (Overseas remittances) vdi bien phu thuoc (phan bd chi tieu), Ket qua udcjudng md hinh Working - Leser difdc the hien d Bang 1, chi ra ring:
(1) Tien gffi ve anh hifdng de'n hanh vi tieu dung cia HGD, tuy nhien tac ddng nay^khong ldn. Ke't qua nay phu hdp vdi nhieu nghien cffii tnfdc do ve mdi quan hg giua tien gffi v^ vdi hanh vi tieu dung
? ; i " ^ ^ ^ ^ i ^ h a r d H . Adams Jr. A Thnnh N T " ' ^ ' 2010a, 2010b va Thi Thanh Nga Bui, Thi Thanh Ngan Le va cong stf, 2015) °
h? g.Oa phun bS chi tieu chl E T - ' ' ' " ' ' "
tong cht tieu hang nam cia fe? ? am; theo Icet qua U8c luons h„„„ .'"™;''l chi tieu tiing them 1 % t u i ° ° | ""ra- '^"S giam 14,2% trong ch, t,6u t h * ! " ? ' " * quan diem lanh te, ket qui „|,f I',''™- T£f luat ciia Engel va cac nghiSn • ^"^ ' ^ ' - sau khi thu nhap diip ( ; „ ' / ' * ' > " * do cau thiet yen, thi phSn thu i^a ""J;, '^i'': nhu thjfc pham giam khi thu nhap a * ° ' " ' "
tien guS ve dong gop , „it A |s°*.''™n8 do xetnhu"m6tngti6n thi ihSp.
24
r QaA mo HINH WORKING - LESER TAC DQNG CGA TIIN ocfi VE DEM HANH VI TlEa DOtiG HO GIA DIMH
Bi^n d$c l$p
Tone chl tieu Gi6i tinh chu ho Tudi chii tio Binh phu'tJng tuoi chu ho Capl
Can'' Can 3 Chuven nshieo So thanh vien trong HGD Binh phiTcfng so thanh vien trone HGD
Tv le Dhu thuoc T G V til Dl Cif noi dia TGV ILf di cu' nu'dc ngoai Dong bSng song Hong DSng bang song Cu'u Long Bic Trung Bo va Duyen hai mien Truna Tay Nguyen
Trung du va mien nui phia Bac He so
R-sauared
Thi/c fse) -0.142***
(0.00^) 0.0015**
(0,0004}
-0.0014**
(0.0005) 0,00002**
fO.OOOOO) -0.016***
(•0.005) -0.026***
(0.004) -0,034***
(0.007) -0.020***
(0.005) -0,012***
(0.00 n 0.012 (0.003) -0,008**
(0.005) -0,033***
(0.007) -0,009 (0.004) 0,003 (0.004) 0,004 (0.006) -0,007 (0.005) 0,016*-*
(0.006) 2,047***
(0.036) 0.3409
Phi thtfc Dh^m Coeffcient
(se) 0.007***
(O.OOi) 0.0002**
(0.0000) -0.0003***
(0.0000) 0,002 (0.002) 0.004***
(0.002) 0,012***
(0.003) 0.023***
(0.002) 0,0024***
(0.0004)
-0.002***
(0.002) -0,004**
(0.002) 0,011**
(0.005) -0,003 (0.003) -0,002 (0.003) -0,004**
(0.00 L) 0,009***
(0.004) -0,0003 (0.00^2) 0,022 (0.014) 0.1887
Giao due Coeffcient (se) 0.007^**
(0.003) 0.0012**
(0.0002) 0.0014***
(0.0002) -0,00001**
(0.00000) 0,008***
(0.0011 0.018***
(0.002) 0.024***
[0.0021 0.020***
(0.003) 0,033***
(0.002) -0,0022***
(0.0002) -0.014'**
(0.0021 0.004 (0.0031 0.114**
(0.052) -0.005 (0.005) -0,023***
(0.0041 0,0003 (0.00041 -0,007*
(0.003) -0,022***
(0.003) -0.135***
(0.0161 0.1535
Cham soc siic khoe Coeffcient (se) 0.025^**
(0,002) 0.0008***
(0,0000) 0.0009***
(0,0000) 0.004*
(0.003) -0.003 (0.003) -0.004 (0.004) -0.014***
(0.004) -0,008***
(0.002) 0,0004**
(0.0003) 0.008***
(0.0021 0,120***
(0.0451 0.003 (0.006) 0.001 (0.004) 0,006 (0.0021 0.003 (0.0031 0,004 (0.002) -0.008***
(0.003) -0,184**"
(0.0251 0.1574
D 6 dung
\ka b i n Coeffcient
(se) 0.087***
(0.0031 0.0006**
(0.0000) -0.0007***
(0.0000) -0,007***
(0.004) -0.007***
(0,003) -0.018***
(0,004) -0.022***
(0,004) 0,0067***
(0.0008)
0.003***
(0.001) 0,0008 (0.0032) 0,013*
(0.008) 0,023***
(0.005) 0,015***
(0.0041 0,022***
(0.0041 0,028***
(0.004) 0,041***
(0.005) -0,751***
(0.036) 0.1618
Nha 9 Coeffcient
(se) 0.005***
(0.001) 0,0004**
(0.00011 -0.0005**
(0.000 n 0.000002 (0.000002) 0,002*
(0.002) 0.005***
(0.002) 0.008***
(0.003) 0.004*
(0.0021 -0,011***
(0.0011 0,0006***
(0.00011 0.003***
(0.002) -0,001 (0.001) 0.0033 (0.0034) -0,027***
(0,003) -0.023***
(0.002) -0,031***
(0.004) -0,036***
(0,005) -0,037***^
(0.002) 0.057***
(0.017) 0.1165
Kh^c Coeffcient
(se) 0.013***
(0.001) 0.0011*
(0.0002J 0.0010***
(0.0002) -0,00001***
(0.00000) 0,004***
(0.002) 0.006***
(0.0021 0.009***
(0.0031 0.009**^
(0.002) -0,012***
(0.001) 0,0007***
(0.0003) 0.002 (0.001) -0,003 (0.0021 -0,008*
(0.005) 0,017***
(0.0011 0,023***
(0.0031 0,007***
(0.0021 0,008***
(0.003) 0,011***
(0.0021 -0,082***
(0.0171 0.0782
* the hien miic di) tin cqy ldn hm Id 10%, 5%, 1%.
Nguon. Tac gia u'flc lu'dng ti]f S' u VHLSS 2012-2016 Khi SO sanhketqua nghien CUTJ nay vi3i
cac nghien cthi khac, nhif cua Richard H.
Adams Jr. va Alfredo Cuecuecha 2010a, 2010b va Una Okonkwo Osili (2007) cho thay, tac dgng cua ti^n gufi v^ de'n phan bo chi tieu cho giao due va nha cf cua Viet Nam manh hon cac n\i6c khac.
(iii) Dang chii y theo nhii ky vong, yeu t6' tien gu'i ve (bao g6m ca di cu' npi dia va di cif quoc te) deu co rndt vai tro tich cue trong phan bo chi Cieu cho giao due va tai chinh HGD. Cu th6', nhffng HGD nhan du'Oc tien giJi ve t^ ngifSi di ctf quo'c te chi tieu nhieu hOn cho vS'n de giao due - coi dau tif vao giao due la mot trong nhiJng ifu tien hang dau cho sif nghiep va tifOng lai mai sau. Vdi miJc dp tin cEly 99%, cac HGD nay chi tai ehinh
cho giao due cao hOn 11,4% so vdi eac HGD khong nhan du'dc tien giJi ve. Theo nhffng nghien ciJu tru'dc do, chi tieu nhieu cho gido due se giup tang cifdng vo'n nhan life, kieh thieh tang tru'dng dai ban, dac biet la trong mot nen kinh le dang phat tri6'n nhif Viet Nam.
(iv) Nhffng HGD nh§n difdc tien g&i ve tif ngffdi di cif noi dia, thi chi tieu cho dieh vu cham sde sffc khoe nhi^u hdn 12% so vdi cac HGD khong nhan dffdc tien gu:i ve tif ngffdi di eff. Trong thifc te', di cff ndi dia tap trung vao do'i tffdng lao dpng tre va cac thanh vien tich cffc cua HGD, ho Ehffdng di cif hffdng d6'n cac khu vifc thanh thi va eac khu cong nghiep ndi ed nhieu cd hoi viec l^m de tang them thu nhap, nang cao dieu kien sd'ng; phan ldn ngffdi di cff khong di chuyen ciing gia dinh, ly do cd the la hp chu'a ISp gia dinh hoae gia dinh ho van dang cff tru tai dia ban noi hp ra di. Do dd, kh^ nang eao nhflng ngffdi d eon iai trong HGD tai ndi ban dau ctia ngffdi di cff se la ngffdi gia v^ tre nhd - do'i tffdng co nhu cau dac biet va nhu cau
25
eham sde y te cao hdn. Vi vay, theo nguyen tac t6ng khong doi thi khi tang ehi tieu cho mot khoan muc nay se dan den giam chi tieu cho mpt khoan inuc khac, cu the la phan bo ehi thffc pham va phi thffc pham^dffoc bao cao trong hanh vi gffi tien v6 tifdi cff npi dia cua HGD.
KET L U A N V A M O T S 6 K H U Y E N NGH!
Ke't qua nghien cffu cho thay: (i) Co sff khac bi?t trong phan bo chi tieu giffa hp gia dinh nhan dffdc tien giti ve vdi h6 gia dinh khong nhSn dffdc tien gffi ve; Oi) Tien gu'i ve tff ngffdi di cff ca npi dia va quoc te'deu anh hffdng de'n hanh vi tieu diing eua hp gia dinh, tuy nhien mffc dp anh hffdng khong !dn; va (iii) Tien gu'i ve tff ngffdi di cff ca ndi dia va quo'c te'deu cd vai trd tich cffc do'i vdi dau tff giao due va tai chinh HGD.
De khai thac cd hieu qua nguon von tff tiin gu'i ve cua ngifdi di cff, thi can cd chinh sach khuyen khich su"
dung tien gffi ve dffa vao dau tff d cac Hnh vffe khae nliau hoac tie't kifim sinh ldi trong dai han, nghien cffu khuye'n nghi eho Chinh phu va HGD nhan tien gffi ve mpt so' va'n de, nhff sau:
Thff nhdt, Chinh phu can cd cac chinh sach hffu hi&u tap trung vao viec thu hut, kiem soat va nan ddng tien gffi ve vao hoat dpng dau tif gop phan phat trien kinh te, cu the:
(i) Dinh hffdng hoac tao dpng lffc de tien gcfi ve dffdc sff dirng vao cac khu vffc san xua't va eac linh vffc phat trid'n nguon nhan lffc.
(ii) Nang cao trinh dp dan tri va sff am hiS'u kie'n thffc ve kinh te, tai chinh cua ngffdi dSn di ngffdi dan sff dung tien gu'i ve mdt each hieu qua nha't.
(iii) Ke't hop muc ti^ tha h^tj'^" ^ ^ ve tff ngirdi di eff noi . va q^f [ ..
thdc daV hoat dong cua . ^c doanh ngn P trong nffdc, dac biSt la c:!C ^^o^"" "f ^ . £ nho va vffa bang cac chinh sach ho trp dung cu the, d l tie'p can
(iv) H6 trd hoat dong kh^i nghiep, khuyen khieh HGD tan dung v6n uch luy tff tien gffi ve va kinh ns^hiem tu' nhffng ngifdi di eff vao dau tu^'phat trien san xua't, khdi nghiep.
^ Thff hai, dd'i' vdi HGD nhan tiin gu'i v l can can nhac tieu dung hdp ly, nen s^
dung ngudn tien gffi ve vao dau tff cho phat trien ben vffng va san xua't kinh te HGD, cu the:
(i)^ Sff dung ben vffng ngudn tien ehuyen ve. HGD va ngffdi di cff n6n sff dung tien ehuydn vi vao cac muc tieu phat tri^n trong dai han, nhff: dau tu cho phat trien ngudn nhan lUc (giao due, hpe nghe...); diu tMt&i san cd'dinh cho md rong san xuS't, kinh doardi kinh te'HGD.
(ii) Han che tieu diing nhffng mat hang ehffa can thiet, tieh luy de dau tU hoac khdi nghiep. HGD va ngffdi di cff nen bie't tan dung so vd'n tich luy va kinh nghifim tff qtia trinh di cff lao dgng vao hoat dpng dau tff san xua't, kinh doanh hoac khdi nghiep. •
_ TAIJ.IEU THAM KHAO _
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luong-kieu-hoi-ve-viet-nam-lien-tuc-tang-dll4228.html
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13 WorkingH.(1943).Statisticallawsoffamilyexpenditure,7oHmaio/r/!t Xmericn
Association,3^,A3-56 '''''"'mical neory
"""al The
