Phan irng trong hanh vi tiet kiem va cc cau chi tieu ho gia dinh Viet Nam lihi co soc vl mo ve thu nhap
Nguyin Thi Minh*, Boan Trpng Tiiygn**, Pham Hinmg Huyen*^
Nguyin Thi Thao****, Pham Tien Hai***
Ngay nhan 21/7/2015 Ngay nhan ban sira: 25/8/2015 Ngay duyet dang: 25/9/2015
Muc dich cua bdi viet ndy Id nhdm nghien ciru hdnh vi tiet kiem ciing nhir co cau chi tieu cua hQ gia dinh Viet Nam khi cd soc ve thu nhgp tan dung so lieu nam 2010-2012. Cdc phdn tich cho thay hdnh vi tiet kiem chi tieu cda nguoi ddn Vi4t Nam noi chung Id phu hop voi cdc ly thuyet vd nghien ciru thuc nghiem ve chu de ndy, trong do khi thu nhgp cao han thi ngirai ddn cd xu hu&ng tiet ki^m nhieu hon. Bdi viet cUng tim ra mot so diem khde Met quan trpng. Thu nhat, trong nam 2012. mac du thu nhgp gia tdng nhung ty le tiet kiem lgi gidm so voi ndm 2010, dieu ndy eho thay trong ndm 2012. ki vong cua ngudi ddn ve trien vpng kinh te Id tot hon, nen lang cucmg cho chi tieu hien tgi Thir hai, mgc dii Viet Nam dd dupe xep vdo nhdm cdc nude thu nhgp trung binh thap, co cdu chi tieu cua nguoi ddn Viet Nam Id tuong tu vdi nhdm cdc nu&c cd thu nhgp thap, trong do ty trpng ddnh cho dd an udng Id qud l&n md phan ddnh eho y te hay gido diic Id qud nhd. Tic do nhdm tdc gid de xudt ra mdt sd gpiy chinh sdch.
Tir khoa: Co cau chi tieu; soe thu nhap; ty le tiet kiem.
Change in savings and composition of consumption of Vietnam households in response to a macro •• income shock
Abstract:
This paper studies the saving behavior and composition of consumption of Vietnamese house- holds when there is an income shock making use of a dataset on 2010-2012 The analysis shows that saving behavior of Vietnamese people is conforming to theory and empirical studies on this issue, in which richer people save more The paper also provides some remarkable points: (i) Despite that income in 2012 increases, saving rate decreases. This may imply that in 2012, peo- ple are more optimistic about future hence increases the current expenditure, (ii) Although Viet- nam IS now in the low middle income group, compositon of consumption is similar to that of the lowest or the low income group- the weight for food and beverage is too large, and that for health care and education is too small. From the result, authors propose some policy recom- mendations.
Keywords: Consumption structure; income shock; saving rates.
1. Gidfi thi^u doi hong thu nhap se la rit quan trpng trong viec T^i hhu het eac qu6c gia, tieu dung ho gia dinh hoach dinh cac chinh sach nhu ehinh sach thu€, chiSm mpt phin quan trpng hong t6ng GDP, a muc chinh sach ve kieh ciu nhSm tang truong kinh te, khoang 60-70 phan ham (s6 li?u World Bank)'. Do chmh sach thue day tieu dung hang npi dia,... Vi vay do thong tin vi phan img ciia hp gia dinh trong hanh co rat nhieu nghien euu ly thuy6t cung nhu thuc vi ti6t kiem ciing nhu ca eau chi tieu khi cd sy thay nghiem ve vin de nay da dupe thuc hien.
si 220 tHdng 10/2015 5 9 Kjllll W l i a l trieH
Khi sir thay ddi trong thu nhap mang tmh dai ban va du bao duoc, ching han ehuan bi cho thai ki huu tri hoae nguoi lao dpng se nhan duae su thang tien trong cong vi?c, thi ty trong thu nhap danh cho chi tieu CO the khong thay d6i dang kk khi sir thay d6i trong thu nhap thuc sir dien ra. Di6u nay duae ly giai bcri gia thuylt ve thu nhap vinh viln (permanent income hypothesis- PIH), dupe khdi xudng bdi Friedman (1957), eho ring hanh vi ehi tieu cua ngudi dan phu thupc chii yeu vao miic thu nhap vTnh viln. Theo gia thuySt nay, neu thay ddi hong thu nhap la d\r bao dugc thi ngudi dan se dieu ehinh chi tieu thdng qua tiet kiem va tin dimg ngay ca trudc khi su thay doi nay thuc su dien ra. Va nhu vay, cac chinh sach dugc thdng bao trudc nhu mien giam thu6 thu nhap ea nhan trong ngan ban se ed tac dung kha ban ehe trong viec phyc vu cho muc tieu kieh cau, vi ngudi dan se ed xu hudng san deu lupng tien dupe mien giam nay de chi tieu trong nhieu nam.
Cae nghien cuu thyc nghiem ve tac dpng ciia cii soc bat thudng trong thu nhap cho thay ke ea khi ngan han, eiing van cd tac dpng tdi hanh vi tieu dung tiet ki?m eiia hp gia dinh, tuy khong manh me bang tae dpng cua sir thay doi mang tinh dai ban cua thu nhap (Muth, 1960; Robert & cpng su, 1982).
Gan day hon, Krueger & Perri (2011), khi nghien cim ve hanh vi ehi tieu eiia ngudi dan Y da udc lupng rang khi thu nhgp ngan han tang 100 Hra^ thi chi tieu thong thudng tang 23 lira, trong khi neu thu nhap dai hgn tang 100 lira thi chi tieu thdng thudng tang den 47 lira.
Khi gidi thi?u them yeu td ngau nhien vao bai toan tieu dung tdi uu, cae nha nghien eiiu ly thuyet da ehi ra mpt vai trd quan trpng khac ciia ti6t kiem hp gia dinh, do la phdng ngua nii ro (precautious saving) (Brumberg, 1956; Leland, 1968; Deaton, 1991; Weil, 1993). Trong do nlu do khdng ehic chan trong tuong lai ve thu nhap eang cao thi ngudi dan cang cd xu hudng giam bdt ehi tieu va gia tang tiet ki?m nhim phdng hp cho nii ro vl kha nang giam sut thu nhap trong tuong lai. Nhilu nghien cuu thye nghi?m da iing hp cho gia thuylt nay, ehing han nghien cuu gan day cua Ashoka Mody & cong sy (2012). Trong nghien cuu nay, eac tac gia da nghien cuu hanh vi tilt kiem - chi tieu hd gia dinh eua khoi cae nude OECD su dung bp sd lieu mang.
Ket qua chi ra ring 2/3 sy thay ddi hong ty le tilt ki?m giira nam 2008 va 2009 la cd muc dich phdng ngira nii ro Nhu vay, trong thdi ki khung hoang kinh te. mpt cii soc vl thu nhap se cd the ed nhimg tac dgng dang ke din hanh vi chi tieu - tilt kiem eua So 220 thdng 10/2015
ngudi dan, do khimg hoang kinh te cd the dem Igi nhung dy doan khdng may ro rang ve thdi diem ma nln kinh te cd the phyc hdi va dn dinh trd lai. Do do da cd mdt sd nghien eihi tap trung tim hieu ve sy thay ddi trong hanh vi tiet kiem - ehi tieu eua ngudi dan do tac dgng ciia khiing hoang kinh te thi gidi bit diu vao nam 2008. Ching han Zanin (2015), khi nghien cim ve hanh vi chi lieu ciia ngudi dan Y vdi tac dgng eua sdc ngin hgn ve thu nhap len chi tieu va tilt ki?m su dyng sd lieu mang thu thap giai dogn 2012-2013. Nghien cuu cho thiy mdi quan h? giua sdc va mue ehi tieu cd dgng chir U ngugc, trong dd nhdm rat giau va rat ngheo hau nhu khong phan iing voi soe thu nhap, va nhdm thu nhap trung binh thi lai cd sy thay ddi dang ke trong miic chi tieu khi thu nhap thay doi.
Sdc thu nhap khdng chi tac dgng len ty le tilt kiem nhu da phan tieh d tren, ma cdn tac dgng din CO cau chi tieu eua eac hg gia dinh. Dieu nay la phu hgp vdi ly thuyet eho rang h? sd co gian ciia cac nhdm hang hda la khac nhau va phy thupc vao thu nhap. Ndi mgt each khac, vdi mgt ngudi binh thudng, khi cd sy giam di trong thu nhgp thi anh ta se ed xu hudng uu tien cho nhihig hang hda thilt yeu va giam bdt chi tieu nhimg hang hda khong thilt ylu. Nad'ege D'esir'ee Yam'eogo (2014) ching han su dung md hinh AIDS eho sd lieu nam 2010 tu Faso va thay rang trong cac nhdm hang hda dupe nghien ciiu, bao gdm chi tieu eho giao due, chi tieu cho y te, thye pham, dd diing lau ben,... thi thay he sd CO gian la rat khac nhau vdi chi tieu cho giao due ed he sd co gian be nhat va dd dung lau ben cd he sd co gian kha Idn. Ngoai ra, cac he sd nay ciing khac biet nhau tuy vao nhdm thu nhap eung nhu eae dac trung ciia hg.
Tyu trung lai, eae nghien cuu cho thay rang khi cd soc ngan ban lam cho thu nhap gia tang thi ty le tiet kiem cung gia tang tuy miic gia tang nay se la ylu hon neu cu sde nay mang tinh dai han. Va su ky vgng tdt hon vl thu nhSp trong tuong lai se gdp phan lam giam ty le tilt kiem hdm nay. Khung hoang kinh tl the gidi 2008 vira qua da cd nhiing tac ddng dang kl din nen kinh tl Vi?t Nam. Nd khdng chi tac dgng din thu nhap ma cdn den ky vpng ciia ngudi dan ve trien vpng kinh te. Vi vgy hanh vi ehi tieu - tiet kiem cung se cd nhung thay ddi dang ke va nghien cuu ve nd se giiip phan nao xae dinh dugc phan ling ciia ngudi dan vdi sdc thu nhap ciing nhu ky vgng ciia ngudi dan ve tuong lai.
CJ Viet Nam da cd mpt sd nghien cuu ve hanh vi
60
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thu nhgp- chi tieu cua ngudi dan, ehang han nghien ciiu cua Minh & cgng sy (2013), Newman & cpng su (2012) hay Thomas & Dung (2014). Bai viet nay khac biet vdi eac nghien ciiu tren d myc dieh nghien cihi: tan dyng sd lieu trong thdi ky Viet Nam ehiu anh hudng cua cudc khiing hoang kinh te qude te de nghien eiiu tac ddng cua sdc thu nhap len hanh vi chi tieu - tilt kiem ciing nhu ca ciu chi tieu eiia hd gia dinh. Mdt diem mdi niia ciia bai vilt la tap trung so sanh hanh vi nay cua eac hp gia dinh theo chieu ngang (theo hp gia dinh vdi ciing thdi dilm) vdi hanh vi theo chieu dpe (theo hp gia dinh vdi thdi diem khac nhau), hi dd cd thi hilu tdt hon vl hanh vi tiet kiem phdng ve ciing nhu ky vgng eua ngudi dan Viet Nam ve trien vgng kinh tl trong thdi W khiing hoang kinh te qudc te. Ciu tnic cua bai vilt nhu sau: phin tiep theo se dua ra cae phan tieh thdng ke ve hanh vi tilt kiem va ca ciu ehi tieu hd gia dinh, trong dd quan tam din ddng thai cua eac ylu td nay trong giai doan 2010-2012; phin 3 se sir dung md hinh kinh tl luong de dua ra cac phan tich dinh lupng ve tac ddng ciia cac yeu td len hanh vi chi tieu - tiet kiem, va phan cudi se dua ra cac thao luan va khuyin nghi.
2. Hanh vi tiet Idem va co ciu tieu diing cua nguM d§n giai doan 2010-2012
Muc nay se tap trung phan tich theo hai hudng:
(1) Hanh vi theo chieu ngang eiia cac hd gia dinh: so sanh hanh vi cua cac hd phan theo nhdm thu nhap tai Cling mdt thdi dilm, va (2) Hanh vi theo chieu dpe ciia hp: so sanh hanh vi eua cac hd phan theo nhdm thu nhgp tgi hai thdi dilm la nam 2010 va nam 2012. Phan tich cung quan tam din hai vin dl: ty le tiet kiem va co cau tieu dung cua cac hd gia dinh Viet Nam.
Nhu da phan tich d tren, hanh vi tiet kiem ciing nhu CO cau chi tieu cd the phu thugc mgt each quan trgng vao sy thay ddi trong thu nhap va nhan dinh cua ngudi dan vl triln vgng kinh te. Khi thu nhgp gia tang, ty le ti8t kiem ciing gia tang; va khi ngudi
dan Igc quan hon ve tuong lai thi ty I? tiet kiem se giam Slit. Trude het chimg ta hay xem xet so bg ve thu nhap hp gia dinh trong nam 2010 va 2012.^ Thu nhap binh quan theo 5 nhdm thu idiap trong nam 2010 va 2012 dugc cho trong bang 1.
Tii Bang 1 cd the thay thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi nam 2012 da tang mpt each danh ke so vdi nam 2010, chi hii nhdm 5 d khu vyc thanh thi.
Chang ban thu nhgp nhdm 1 (nhdm ngheo nhit) da gia tang 47% va 40% tuang iing cho khu vuc thanh thi va khu vuc nong thdn. Ndu sau khi da tni di anh hudng do lam phat thi thu nhap thyc te eiia ngudi dan vin gia tang (tni ididm giau nhat d khu vuc thanh dii)."
Tii do chiing ta se tiep tuc phan tich hanh vi tiet kiem va co cau chi tieu eiia ngudi dan nhu trong phan sau.
2.1. Xu hir&ng tiet kiem hd gia dinh Chiing ta se phan tich hdnh vi tilt kiem hd gia dinh theo hai khia egnh: xu hudng tiet kiem theo chieu ngang, vd xu hudng tiet kiem theo chieu doc.
Xu huong tiet kiem theo chieu ngang Theo eae nghien ciiu thuc nghiem, nhdm cac hp giau khdng chi tiet Idem nhieu hon nhdm cac hp ngheo tinh theo gia tri tuyet ddi ma ty le tiet kiem ciia nhdm cac hd giau eiing thudng cao han so vdi nhdm eae hp ngheo (Karen & cpng sy, 2004). Su khac biet nay cd y nghTa quan trpng trong viec thuc thi cac chinh sach lien quan den phiie lgi ciia ngudi dan nhu thue gia tri gia tang. Neu ty trpng tieu diing eua ngudi ngheo la cao han so vdi ngudi giau thi thul gia tri gia tang se mang tinh liiy thoai, va ngudi ngheo se bi thiet hai nhieu hon so vdi ngudi giau.
Ngoai ra, ty le tiet kiem ciia ngudi giau la cao hon so vdi ngudi ngheo se ed xu hudng tilp tuc lam gia tang bat binh dang trong tuong lai.
Xu hu&ng tiet kiem theo ehieu dpe hay su thay doi trong ky vong vi trien vpng kinh te
Xu huong tiet kiem theo chieu dpe d day duge Bang 1: Thu nhSp binh quan khu vuc nong thon - thanh thi theo nhom thu nhip (don vi: nghln
dong/thang)
2010 2012 Thay d6i (%)
Thanh thi Nong thon Thanh till Nong thon Nong thon
1 795.77 379.33 1169.38 2 1263.46 653.82 1811.02 3 1810.82 943.60 2420.23 4 2538.77 1384.60 3355.52 5 4952.30 2907.46 5770.22
532.09 936.66 1353.85 1968.02 397220
1.47 1.43 1 34 1.32 1.17
140 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.37 Ngudn. Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid tir VHLSS 2010-2012
So 220 thdng 10/2015
KinliteJ>liat trien
Bang 2: Ty If tiet kiem hp gia dinh theo khu vtfc va theo nb6m thu nhap (dom vJ: %)
Nong thon Nong thon
16.90 23.62 25.12 29.71 40 09
16.40 2126 24.12 29.04 41.92
1751 16.99 23.72 25.23 31.91
13.89 15.38 19.28 25.20 38.18 Nguon: Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid tir VHLSS 2010-2012
hilu la su thay ddi cua ty I? tilt kiem dge theo thdi gian ciia cac hg gia dinh phan theo nhdm thu nhgp.
Su thay ddi nay cd thi ndi dugc tgo ra bdi hai yeu tl eo ban; sy thay ddi trong thu nhap thyc tl, va sy thay ddi trong ky vgng cua ngudi dan vl tuang lai.
Cu thi hon, nlu nhu thu nhap cung nhu ky vgng ciia ngudi dan vl triln vgng kinh tl la khdng thay doi thi ty I? tilt kiem ciia cac hd gia dinh trong nam 2010 va 2012 se la nhu nhau. NIU khdng ed sy thay ddi trong ky vpng, thi sy thay ddi trong ty le tiet ki?m se kha tuong ddng vdi sy thay ddi cua ty le tiet kiem khi x6t theo chieu ngang, nghia la ty le tilt kiem se gia tang khi thu nhap gia tang.'
Ty I? va xu hudng tiet kiem hd gia dinh theo ehilu ngang va theo chilu dgc giua eac nam 2010 va 2012 dugc eho trong bang 2.
Tir bang 2 cd the thiy mgt sd dae diem nhu sau ve hanh vi tiet kiem hp gia dinh Viet Nam:
Neu tinh theo chieu ngang, cd the thay hanh vi tiet kiem hg gia dinh Viet Nam tuan theo quy lugt chung:
eae hp giau cd xu hudng tiet kiem cao hon. Chang hgn nhu vao nam 2010, cae hg nhdm 5 tiet kiem tdi 40% thu nhap cd duge thi hg nhdm I ehi tiet kiem 17%. Tinh hinh ciing tuong tu cho nam 2012.
Neu quan tam theo ehieu dge, ta thay cd mpt sy thay ddi kha ro giita nam 2012 va nam 2010, nhu sau;
Mpt Id: Sir thay ddi theo ehieu dpe ciia ty le tiet ki^m Id ngupc chieu vol su thay ddi theo ehieu ngang. Nam 2012, nhu d phan tren da chi ra, thu nhap ciia da sd nhdm hp deu gia tang, nhung ty I?
tiet ki?m Igi siit giam. Cd the day la chiing cii, ngudi dan eho ring sy gia tang thu nhap trong nam 2012 mang tinh ben vung va cd mpt ky vpng tdt vl triln vgng nen kinh tl. Trong dd dgc biet cd thi thiy ro nhom 5 d khu vyc thanh thi, mac dii thu nhap thyc tl la khdng gia tang (sau khi trir lam phat), nhung miic tiet ki^m lai sut giam rit Idn.
Hai Id - Cd mpt sir khde biet ddng ke giira thdnh thi vd ndng thdn trong ndm 2012 so v&i ndm 2010.
Neu nhu trong nam 2010, ty le tilt kiem tai hai khu
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vyc nong thdn va thanh thi la kha tuong dong thi nam 2012, ty le nay Igi kha khac biet. Chang hgn nhdm 1 thanh thi tilt kiem 17.51 % hong khi d nong thdn ty le nay la 13.89; va nhdm 5 thanh thj tilt ki?m 31.91% trong khi d nong thdn ty le nay la 38.18%. Dilu nay ed thi ly giai \k do cac nhdm khde nhau cd kj' vgng khac nhau ve triln vpng kinh tl.*
Mdt eau hdi quan trgng dupe dat ra la cac hg gia dinh phan bd lupng tiln gia tang nhu the nao giira cac nhdm mgt hang tieu dung. Dieu nay se dugc phan tich d myc tilp theo.
2.2. Thay ddi trong cof cdu chi tieu cua hp gia dinh giai doqn 2010-2012
Cac nghien eiiu thye nghiem chi ra ring co cau chi tieu cua cac hp gia dinh la khac bi?t nhau tiiy thupc vao nhieu yeu td trong dd cd ylu to thu nhap va cac dgc trung ciia hd (Narayan & cpng su, 2012).
Trong nghien ciiu nay ehung tdi chia chi tieu ciia hp thanh 7 nhdm nhu sau: giao due, y tl, do an udng, tieu dimg hang ngay khdng phai dd an uong, hang lau ben, diSn nude sinh hogt, tit, va cac mat hang cdn lai. Co ciu chi tieu trong hai nam 2010 va 2012 duge cho trong bang 3 (Do co ciu chi tieu eua ngudi thanh thi eiing tuong ty nen chiing tdi khdng trinh bay d day).
Tir bang 3, cd mgt sd nhgn xet nhu sau;
Xet theo chieu ngang, co cdu ehi tieu hp gia dinh phii hop v&i ky vpng: Ty trgng ehi tieu danh cho do an udng (ke ca Tet) la giam khi thu nhgp gia tang, phu hgp vdi luat Engel. Va ty trpng danh cho cdc mat hdng khac deu cd xu hudng tang khi thu nhap tang. Dieu nay cho thay cae hd ngheo chi it hom cho giao dye vd y te ca ve dg Idn tuy?t doi ciing nhu tuong ddi.
Co cdu chi tieu khde biet v&i xu huong chung tren the gioi: Ty le chi tieu trong tdng ehi tieu cua cac hp gia dinh ddnh chu ylu danh qud nhieu cho an uong, vdi 63.86% vdi nhdm I va 47.53% vdi nhdm 5 hong nam 2010. Day la m$t miic chi khd Idn so vdi miic frung binh chung tren thi gidi'. Trong khi dd.
kinh t y k t trien
Bang 3: Cff c^u clii tigu ciia cac ho gia dinh nong thon (don vj: % t6ng chi tieu)
Ytl Tet An uong Ngoai a.u
2010 (Nong thon) 1
2 3 4 5
2 2 0 2.98 3 J 2 3.90 4.01
2.96 3.41 5.01 4 2 1 5.81
6.04 5.69 7.11 8.27 10.64
5 4 0 5.01 4.65 4.46 4.21
63.86 58.81 54.09 51.26 47.53
19.90 21.53 22.01 23.10 23.88
1.40 1.93 2.18 2.19 2.53
3 2 8 4.68 6 4 1 7.40 7.59 2012 (Nong thon)
1 2 3 4 5
143 2.53 2.78 2.64 2.76
3.03 2.84 3.76 3.84 3.87
4.66 3.32 4.92 6.11 8.76
2.84 3.34 3.32 3.46 3.46
69.17 66.49 62.01 60.20 57.18
18.49 17 98 19.44 19.70 2 0 3 4
1.51 1.81 2.33 2.39 2.51
3.09 4.35 5.33 6.28 7.30 Ngudn: Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid tir VHLSS 2010-2012
nhiing mat hdng quan trgng eho sy phat trien ben viing nhu y te hay giao due lai chiem mgt ty 18 qua nhd so vdi miic trung binh chung tren the gidi:
chang ban chi tieu nam 2010 cho y te ciia nhdm 1 va nhdm 5 Ian lugt la 2.95% va 5.81% thi eon sd ndy la 5.1% neu tinh trung binh chung tren thi gidi. Cac eon s6 vl chi cho giao due ciing phan anh mgt xu the tuang ty.
Su thay doi trong ca cdu chi tieu ndm 2012 so vai nam 2010 khong theo xu huong thdng thuong. Thu nhgp nam 2012 eao hon so vdi nam 2010, nhung ty trgng danh cho dd an udng tiep tue gia tang, dieu nay Id khong phii hgp vdi luat Engel, trong khi dd ty hgng ddnh cho y tl vd giao dye tilp tye sut giam.
3. Md hinh danh gia tac d$ng ciia mot s6 yeu t l I§n ty 1^ tilt kiem h$ gia dinh Vif t Nam
Sd lifu
Bdi vilt sii dyng sd lieu Dilu tra miic sdng hd gia dmh cdc nam 2010 vd 2012 (VHLSS 2010 vd VHLSS 2012), day Id sd li?u dilu tra do Tdng cue Thing k8 thyc hien hai nam mdt lin. Sd hd dugc dieu ha mdi nam Id 9400 hp. Dd kiem soat mpt sd dae hTjng cua hg, ehung tdi tdp hung nghien ciiu cac hp dugc dilu tra trong ca hai nam 2010 vd 2012, gdm 4173 hg. Sau khi loai bd mdt s6 hg do thilu dii li^u, tdng cgng so hg sii dung trong nghien ciiu Id 3945 hp.
Md hinh
Md hinh dugc sii dyng nhu sau eho tiing khu vuc ndng thdn va thdnh thi.
y=^+ pjnhom + P^duc + pfemale + p/ige +
^^nhom *year + u
Trong dd ede bien duge dinh nghia nhu sau:
Y: ty le tilt kiem, bang lupng tilt kiem chia eho thu nhgp, don vi: %
Nhdm: nhdm phan theo thu nhgp, nhan gid tri tir 1 den 5, trong dd nhdm 1 Id nhdm ngheo nhat. Theo eac nghien eiiu ly thuylt vd thyc nghiem, cac nhdm cd thu nhgp cao thudng ed xu hudng cd ty le tiet kiem eao hem.
Edu: ehi hpc van cua chii hp, nhgn gid tri tii 1 den 3, trong dd 1 vdi nhirng ehii hp ed trinh do tieu hpc trd xudng, 2 neu cd trinh dp trung hgc, 3 nlu cd trinh dp tren phd thdng trung hpe. Nhiing ngudi cd trinh dp hge vin cao hon thudng cd xu thi tilt kiem cao ban, do hgc van cao hon thudng ed dam bao tdt hon ve thu nhap tuong lai.
Female: gidi tinh cua ehii hO, nhan gid tri 1 neu ehu hd Id nii, bing 0 nlu chu hd la nam.
Age: tudi ciia chu hp. Theo ly thuylt vl vdng ddi, ngudi tre va ngudi gia cd xu hudng tiet kiem it hon so vdi ngudi trung tudi. Tuy nhien trong bdi viet ndy, don vi nghien cuu la hp gia dinh, nen tudi cd the phan anh ve khia eanh quan tam den nii ro ve thu nhap ciia hO. Chu hg cd tre tudi cd the san sang chap nhgn nii ro hon ngudi eao tudi.
Nhdm *year: biln tuong tdc, chi tdc dpng ciia thdi gian vd nhdm thu nhgp. He sd cua biln ndy nham tim hieu danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve trien vgng kinh te trong nam 2012 so vdi nam 2010.
Sau khi thyc hien cac kiem dinh ean thilt (xem Phy luc), kit qua thu dupe cho khu vyc ndng thdn va khu vyc thanh thi dupe thi hien d bang 4.
Cac he sd udc lugng deu cd dau phu hgp vdi ky
S6 220 thdng 10/2015 63
kinh teihal trien
vgng va cd y nghia thdng ke. He sd bien E d u 2 va Edu_3 the hien sy khac biet giira nhdm ed chii hd hgc vin trung hgc vd chii ho hpc van tren trung hpe so vdi nhdm co sd Id nhdm cd ehu hd cd hoc van tieu hpc trd xudng.
He so biln Nhdm Id phii hgp vdi phan tieh diong ke d tren: cac nhdm gidu hon cd ty le tiet kiem cao hon, ke ca sau khi kilm soat cac yeu td khde mang dgc tnmg eua chu hp nhu trinh dp hpc van hay gidi tinh chu hp. Cu thi hon, d khu vyc ndng thdng, nhdm 2 cd ty le tilt kiem cao hon nhdm 1 la 0.0489 (gin 5%) va nhdm edng gidu thi sy chenh lech ndy cdng Idn. Dieu nay cung dung cho khu vue thdnh thi, tuy nhien miic chenh leeh giura cac nhdm d thdnh thi la it hon so vdi ndng thdn.
Mpt dieu dang luu y la he sd tuong tdc giua bien nhdm va bien nam deu am vd hau het deu cd y nghTa thdng ke. Dieu ndy cho thay rang, tuy thu nhgp nam 2012 Id Idn hon so vdi nam 2010, nhung cac nhdm deu cd xu hudng tiet kiem giam, hay ndi mpt each khae, la cae nhdm deu gia tang ty I? chi tieu. Dieu ndy eho thay mpt ky vpng tdt hon ciia ngudi dan ve trien vgng kinh te, eiing phu hgp vdi thyc te rang nam 2012 kinh te bdt dau khdi phyc, Igm phat gidm tii con sd 18% xudng cdn 6.8%.
4. Thao luan va khuyen nghi
Bai vilt ndy su dyng sd lieu cap nhat nam 2010- 2012 de nghien ciru hanh vi tilt kiem - ehi tieu hd gia dinh Viet Nam. Ddng gdp chinh cua bai vilt ndy Id tgn dyng mgt thyc tl dae biet Id trong giai doan ndy, Viet Nam dang ehju tdc ddng ciia khiing hodng kinh te the gidi, de nghien ciiu hanh vi cua ngudi Bang 4: Ket qua iro'c luyng cho
dan khi cd cu sdc mang tinh vT md ve thu nhap. Sau khi thuc hien cac kiem dinh can thiet ve mo hinh, kit qud thu dupe tir md hinh dinh lupng vd phan tich thdng ke Id phii hgp vdi cdc nghien ciiu ly thuylt ciing nhu thuc nghiem ve tiet kiem - chi tieu cua hg gia dinh tren the gidi. Tuy nhien ciing cd mdt s6 diem khac biet, nhu sau;
- Co cau chi tieu ciia hg gia dinh Viet Nam chua thyc su phii hgp vdi xu hudng chimg tren the gidi:
Trong khi Viet Nam da dugc xep trong nhdm cac nude thu nhgp trung binh thap thi eo eiu chi tieu ciia ngudi dan Viet Nam lai tuong ddng vdi ca cau ciia cae nude ed thu nhap thap hogc thap nhat: Ty le chi tieu danh cho dd an udng d Viet Nam Id qua cao, va ty le danh eho y te vd giao dye cdn qua thap^. Them vao dd, khi cd tnen vgng tdt hon vS tuong lai va cd gia tang trong thu nhgp, ngudi dan khdng uu tien dl gia tang cho cdc linh vyc nhu gido dye hay y te ma van tiep tyc uu tien cho dd an udng. Day la mgt xu hudng khdng dang khuyen khich, vi chinh giao dye vd y te mdi la cin duge uu tien khi ddi song da khdng cdn d miie thieu thdn. De tim hieu ban chit cua xu hudng nay, cin cd mpt nghien eiiu tilp theo de lam ro hon eau thanh ciia do an udng hp gia dinh Viet Nam. Trong tuong lai, khi xu hudng chi tieu eiia ngudi ddn Viet Nam trd nen hpi nhap hon voi xu the chung ciia thi gidi, chi tieu eho cac linh vyc nhu y te, gido due se gia tang. Vi vgy eae linh vyc ndy cdn cd nhung cdi thien v l chit lugng ciing nhu trang thilt bi eo sd vat chat de dap irng duge sy gia tang ndy ttong tucmg lai khdng xa.
- Ve ty le tiet kiem: sy khac biet vl ty le ddnh cho
Bien so Nh6ni2
Female
Robust standard Ghi chu:
Ndng thon 0.0489«»«
(0.0152) 0.0915**' (0.0151) 0 . 1 4 4 * "
(0.0146) 0274»»«
(0.0155) .0.0213**
(0.00850)
^).0183«»»
(0.00657) . 0 . 0 7 2 8 " *
(0 0235)
Thanh thi 0.0736***
(0.0184) 0 . 0 9 9 S " * (0.0186) 0 . 1 6 2 " » (0.0194) 0.25i»».
(0.0219) - 0 . 0 3 1 8 * "
(0.0112) -0 0300«»
(0.0117) -0.0344*
(0.0182) errors in parentheses
*•* [KO.Ol, • » p < 0 . 0 5 . Si 220 thing I0/21H5
* p<0.1 6 4
Bien so Nh6ml*2012 Nh6m2»2012 Nh6m3*2012 Nh6m4*2012 Nhom5*2012 Constant R-squared Observations
Nong thdn -0.0202 (0.0237) -0.053***
(0.0143) -0.062***
(0.0130) -0.037***
(0.0116) -0.043***
(0.0127) 0.166***
(0.0123) 0 2 2 3 2,827
Thanh thj -0.0123 (0.0246) -0.0488**
(0.0196) -0.0130 (0.0206) -0.064***
(0.0202) -0.074***
(0.0242) 0.176***
(0.0140) 0.158 1,118
KiohteJIialln
tiet kiem trong thu n h ^ hd gia dinh giiia cdc nhdm da cd nhiing ky vgng tdt ve trien vpng kinh te nen thu nhgp Id kha Idn. Chang ban nhdm gidu nhat cd gia tang chi tieu hien tai. Ket qud nay la phii hgp vdi ty le tiet ki?m cao gdp hai Ian so vdi nhdm ngheo gia thuylt vl thu nhap vinh viln cung nhu gid thuylt nhit. Nhu vgy day se Id ylu td gdp phin vao gia vl tilt kiem phdng ngira nii ro ma cac nhd nghien tang bit binh ddng trong tucmg lai. Do dd, tuy hien ciiu hen dil gidi da dl xuit. Mdt each dinh lugng, nay bat binh ding d Vi?t Nam chua d miic cao, miic gidm ttong ty le tilt kiem nam 2012 so vdi nam nhung Nha nude van can quan tam din vin dl nay. 2010 Id khd Idn. Dilu nay eho thiy hdnh vi chi tieu - Ve ty le tiet kiem: Nam 2012, mac du thu nhap ciia ngudi dan Viet Nam Id kha nhgy cam khi ed su diue te sau khi da trir di Igm phat cua eac hd trong thay ddi trong thu nhgp. Vi vay khi thye hi?n cae nghien ciiu deu gia tang nhung ty le tiet kiem lai chinh sdch nhu tang luong tdi thilu thi se cd nhiing giam so vdi nam 2010. Dieu nay cho thay ngudi ddn tac dgng dang ke len cau hang hda eua ngudi dan.n
Phy luc: Kiem dinh mo hinh
Ramsey RESET Ho:
test model
using powers of has no omitted F(3, 2811)
Prob > F =
the fitted /ariables
. . . 1
0.2707
values of sava ng rate
Kiem dinh vi phutmg sai sai sd thay ddi, kiem dfnh B-P
Bre usch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity Ho: Constant variance
Variables: fitted values of saving rate chi2(l) 109.02 Prob > chi2 0.0000
Ghi chu:
1. ht^://data.worldbank.oi^mdicator/NE.CON.PETC.ZS. Nam 2014, tieu diing ho gia dinh Vi?t Nam chilm 63.4% GDP.
2. Lira: don vj tien t? ciia Y
3. Chung tdi se chi quan tam den cac hp cd thu nhap la Idn hem chi tieu - cac ho con lai khong phai la moi quan tam ciia nghien ciiu nay.
4. Lgm phat edc nam: 2010: 11.75%, 2011: 18.6%, 2012: 6.81%.
5. Mot so ylu tl khac ciing co thi tgo nen su thay doi trong xu hudng tilt kiem theo chieu dgc, do la su thay ddi vl tudi cua chu bp. Tuy nhien d day chung ta chi xet trong 2 nam nen co the xem tdc dpng ciia sy thay doi ve tudi la khong dang ke.
6. Co hpi dau tu khac nhau cung cd the la mpt nguyen nhan, ching han vdi ngudi co nhieu tien, ho cd the diu tu vao cac khoan co gia tri Idn nhu bit dpng san trong khi ngudi co it tien thi khd lam dugc dilu nay. Tuy nhien cd thi cho ring ca hgi nay trong nam 2012 la chua dupe cai thi^n so vdi nam 2010.
7. Trung binh tren the gidi, 2010: 38.6% (Theo World Bank: http://datatopics.worldbank.org/consumption/market) 8. Con sd d phia trudc ten moi bien gia the hi^n sy khac biet cua nhdm do so vdi nhdm co sd
9. Ty le chi tieu cong cho giao dye cua Viet Nam tuy cd cao hon so vdi miie Uung binh tren thi gidi, nhung cho y
^ 220.hing 10/2015 65 Kjgl, if^g [j^
t l thi thap hon nen khdng phai la Ii do d l chi tieu hg gia dinh cho hai linh vuc nay thap.
Tai lif u tham khao
Ashoka Mody, Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri (2012), 'Precautionary Savmgs in the Great Recession'. IMF Working Paper, sd WP/12;42-
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Leland, Hayne E. (1968), 'Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving', The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465-473
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Phillip Weil (1993), 'Precautionary savings and the permanent income hypothesis. The review of economic studies, 60(2), 367-383.
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Zanin Lucas (2015), .The Response of Italian Households to a Large Transitory Income Shock During an Economic Crisis: An Experimental Study on the Intention to Increase Consumption Levels', SSRN working paper, http://ssm.con]/absUact=2605746
Thong tin cdc tac gia:
* Nguyen Thj Minh, Phd gido su, tiin sy
- Td chue tdc gid edng tdc: Khoa Todn kinh te, truong dpi hpc Kinh ti qudc ddn
- Mpt sd tgp chi dd ddng tdi cdng trinh nghien ciru: Singapore Economics Reviews. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy Tgp chi Kinh ti Phdt triin, Tgp ehi Kinh te
- Dia chi lien he: Dia chi Email: [email protected]
** Dodn Trpng Tuyin, Thgc sy
- Td chue tdc gid cdng tdc: Khoa Todn kinh ti, truong dgi hpc Kinh te qudc ddn
***Phgm Huong Huyen, Thgc sy
- To chirc tdc gid cdng tdc: Khoa Todn kinh ti, truong dai hpc Kinh ti qudc ddn
****Nguyin Thi Thao
- Td chirc tdc gid cdng tdc: Khoa Todn kinh ti, truong dai hpc Kinh ti quoc dan
*****Ph?m Tiin Hdi
- Td chirc tdc gid cdng tdc: Sd Gido dge vd Ddo tgo tinh Dak Ldk
So 220 thdng 10/2015 QQ K J D l l t e J I i a t W
