m TE TRUiilG QUOC THAP NEN DAU INE KY XXI;
HAI BUfC TRANH TOONG PHAN
PGS. TS PHAM THAI QUOC Vien Kinh te'va chinh tri the gidi
^T^^ d quan diem eho rang, tang w(^^ trUdng cao va phat trien ben
^^—"^ vflng la mau thuan nhau. Da tang trudng cao thi thie'u ben vflng va ngflde lai, duy tri dfldc tang trUdng ben vflng thi nhip do tang lai thap hoac vfla phai chfl khdng cao. Mot sd' nen kinh te dang phat trien chi mai me theo dudi tdc do tang trfldng cao, ddc sflc d i u tU that nhieu vao san xua't nham dat dUde mue tieu tang quy md nen kinh te cang nhanh cang td't. Chinh vi vay ma sao nhang hay thie'u dau tu cho bao ve mdi trUdng, cho giao due, eho ddi mdi cdng nghe... Ke't qua la sau mot sd' nam tang trUdng cao, cac nen kinh te nay phai dd'i mat vdi nhieu va'n de, do dd khdng the tie'p tue da tang trudng nhanh nhU trUdc. Nhu vay, day la nen kinh te tang trudng nhanh nhUng khdng ben vflng.
Ngflde lai, mot sd' nen kinh te khac, ngay tfl d i u da quan tam de'n ea d i u tfl phat trien san xuat, ca d i u tfl cho bao ve mdi trfldng, phat trien giao due dao tao va cdng nghe.... mflc tang trfldng ed dfldc
khdng cao nhflng dUde duy tri dn dinh.
Cd ve ed ly khi eho rang, trong mot hoan canh, mot dieu kien nha't dinh, ra't khd cd du ngudn liic de dat dUde ca hai mue tieu de ra. Mot khi tap trung sUe lam eho chie'c banh to hdn nhanh chdng, ngUdi ta khdng the lam eho chiee banh dd cung thdm hdn, ngon hdn.
Nhu vay, phai chang la eac nen kinh te cd mUc tang trUdng nhanh thudng ehfla dflng nhieu nhan td' kem ben vflng?
Chung ta thii xem xet dieu nay qua viec phan tich hai bflc tranh tfldng phan ve kinh te Trung Qud'c trong thap nien d i u the'ky XXI.
I. BtrC TRANH THir NHAT: TRUNG QUOC Vdi NHl£u KY LUC T A N G
TRUONG
Thap ky d i u tien ciia the ky 21 chflng kien ra't nhieu ky lue lien quan den tang trfldng kinh te eiia Trung Qud'c.
Thd nhdt, d i u thap ky, nam 2002, sau sfl kien 11/9, Trung Qud'c dfldc biet de'n nhfl mdt nflde thu hut FDI ldn nha't
NGHIEN CIJU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010
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the gidi sau khi FDI vao nUdc nay (hdn 50 ty USD) vUdt mflc FDI vao My.
Thd hai. ve mflc tang trfldng trung binh trong ca thap ky, Trung Qudc cung dfldc xep vao nhdm cac nflde tang trfldng cao nha't the' gidi. Cudi thap ky, nam 2009, trong khi toan the' gidi bi chim sau trong khiing hoang, tri tre - vdi nhieu nen kinh te tang trfldng am thi Trung Qud^c van duy tri mflc tang 8,7% - thudc loai cao nha't the gidi.
Thd ba, nhd tang trfldng nhanh, Trung Qud'c cflng lap ky luc rfldt dudi ve quy md kinh te vdi nhieu cfldng qud'c eiia the gidi. Nam 2001, vdi 1160 ty USD Trung Qud'c l l n d i u tien gia nhap cau lac bd cac nflde ed GDP 1 ngan ty USD.
The nhUng chi 5 nam sau, de'n 2005, tdng GDP eiia Trung Qudc vUdt mflc ciia Anh, vUdn len dUng thfl 5 the gidi. Nam 2008, tdng GDP ciia Trung Qud'c lai tie'p tuc vfldt mflc ciia Dflc, vfldn len dflng thfl 3 the gidi. Trong nam 2010 nay, rat ed the GDP eiia Trung Qud'c se vUdt mflc eiia Nhat ban.
Thd tii, Trung Qudc da lap ky luc ve viee ed dfldc mflc dfl trfl ngoai te ldn nha't the gidi vdi tren 2300 ty vao gifla nam 2009. Hd trd eho dieu nay la mdc xudt sieu tdng vpt hdn 12 ldn, tfl mflc 24
ty USD nam 2000 da tang len 295 ty USD nam 2008. Ve thfldng mai, trong 8 nam, gia tri kim ngach xua't nhSp khau (XNK) tang tfl 474 ty USD len 2561 ty USD (2008). Ty trong tdng kim ngach XNK/ GDP tang tfl gin 40% len 58%. Ty trong xua't khau/ GDP tang tfl 20% len 32%. Nam 2009, xua't khau eiia Trung Qud'c da vUdt mflc eiia Dflc, vfldn len dflng dau the gidi. Vdi mflc dfl trfl ngoai te ldn, Trung Qud'c eung lap ky luc, dfldc bie't den nhfl mot ehii nd ldn eiia My khi mua nhieu tram ty USD trai phieu cua eUdng qudc sd' mot the gidi nay.
Thd ndm, Trung Qud'c lap ky luc nhfl mot nUdc thfl 3 thanh cdng vdi 3 lln phdng tau, dfla ngfldi len vu tru vao cac nam 2003, 2005 va 2008.
Biiu I: TOC DO GIA T A N G GDP CUA TRUNG QUOC 2001 - 2010 (%)
•GDP
-I 1 1 r
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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NGHIEN CllU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010Ngoai ra, phai ke de'n cae ky luc khae nhfl: l l n d i u tien Trung Qud'c cd sd' ty phu nhieu thfl 2 the gidi, chi sau My.
Ne'u nam 2006, ca nUdc Trung Qud'c chi cd 15 ty phu dd la thi nam 2007, nUde nay cd de'n 108 ty phu dd la. Nam 2008 la 130. Ben canh dd, Trung Quo'c cdn cd 345 trieu phu dd la. Trung Qud'c la mot cudng qud'c mdi ve eung Ung FDI ra nUde ngoai. Nam 2003, Trung Qud'c chi d i u tfl 2,9 ty USD FDI ra nUdc ngoai, de'n nhflng nam cud'i thap ky, moi nam Trung Qud'c dfla vai chuc ty USD ra nUde ngoai, vdi con so' nam 2007 la hdn 26 ty USD, nam 2008 la hdn 52 ty USD.
Danh gia ve thap ky d i u tien ciia the ky 21, theo nghien cflu eua The Global Language Monitor, mot td ehflc theo doi bao ehi va truyen thong ciia My, sfl trdi day eiia Trung Qud'c trd thanh cfldng qud'c kinh te la de tai thu hut sfl chu y ldn nha't ciia du luan trong thap ky nay, vUOt qua ea eudc chien Iraq va vu tan cdng khiing bd' ngay 11/9/2001. Sfl vfldn len ciia Trung Qud'c tdi mot nae thang mdi ve kinh te da lam thay ddi - va van dang tie'p tuc thach thfle - trat tfl the gidi mdi", Reuters trich ldi binh luan eiia Paul J J Payaek, Chu tich Global Language Monitor, "Khdng cd gi ba't ngd, sfl chuyen minh ciia Trung Qud'c da danh bai moi tin tflc khae trong thap ky nay, ke ca tin ve chien tranh, tai hoa kinh te hay tham hoa thien nhien".
0 bflc tranh thfl nhat, chung tdi cung khdng mud'n ndi them nfla vi da ed kha nhieu cdng trinh nghien cflu de cap nhflng thanh cdng kinh te eua Trung
Qud'c trong 10 nam d i u the'ky 21. Trong bflc tranh kinh te vfla md ta, vdi nhieu ky luc cd dfldc, ngfldi ta cd the nghe tha'y tieng md nut sam banh chuc mflng, thay mau sac lung linh huyen ao eua phao hoa va tieng reo hd vang trdi day da't vi chien thang, mflng chien thang. Tuy nhien, neu md ta kinh te Trung Qud'c, ehi dflng lai d bflc tranh nay thi ehfla du.
Chung ta cin xem bflc tranh thfl hai.
II. BirC TRANH THII HAI: CHAT LUONG TANG TRUONG THAP.
Bflc tranh thfl nha't cho tha'y tdc do tang trfldng d Trung Qud'c la khac cao, thap chi r a t cao. Cdn chat lUdng tang trUdng thi sao ?.
Thd nhdt, phan tich chi sd' ve tinh hieu qua ciia d i u tu ICORs (Incremental Capital - Output Ratios), chi sd' nay ndi len tinh hieu qua ciia d i u tU tinh bing ty le vd'n tren san lUdng can bien). Chi sd' ICORs cho biet ein d i u tU bao nhieu de cd dUdc mdi diem p h i n tram GDP trong tang trUdng kinh te. Chi sd' ICORs cang thap thi khdi lUdng ngudn liie cin thie't de cd them 1% GDP trong tang trUdng kinh te cang nhd, cd nghia la hieu qua ciia d i u tU cang cao. Chi so' ICOR ciia Trung Qud'c trong nhflng nam 1991-1995 la 3,4. Trong giai doan 1996-2000 la 4,5.
Nam 2000 la 4,51. Trong nhflng nam 2001-2003 la 5,1. Dieu nay cho tha'y, so vdi hai thap ky trflde, g i n day, de cd 1%
tang GDP, Trung Qud'c can nhieu vd'n d i u tu hdn, cd nghia la hieu qua dau tfl thap hdn.
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Thd hai, chat lUdng tang trUdng d Trung Qud'c trong thap ky qua la tha'p edn duoc tha'y d nhflng khia canh sau day.
1. Van de khai thac tai nguyen qua muc va nguy co can kiet tai nguyen.
Trung Qudc la mot cong xfldng ciia the gidi, nflde nay khdng chi san xuat mdt khoi lUdng ldn san pham edng nghiep de dap flng nhu e l u khdng Id cua eU dan trong nUde ma cdn dap flng nhu elu xua't khau. De dap flng yeu e l u phat trien eua cae nganh cdng nghiep, mdi nam Trung Qud'c e i n mot Ifldng nguyen vat lieu khdng id, p h i n ldn trdng chd vao khai thac tai nguyen. Nam 2007 Trung Qud'c khai thac 2536 trieu ta'n than (tang 6,9%), 187 trieu ta'n d i u thd.
Nam 2008, Trung Qud'c san xuat 22,78 trieu tan dxit nhdm; 500,9 trieu tan phdi thep; 584,88 trieu tan thep cuon; 25,2, trieu tan ciia 10 loai kim loai mau, trong dd ddng la 3,78 trieu ta'n, nhdm la 13,17 trieu tan...; Cung trong nam 2008, Trung Quo'c khai thac 2,793 ty tan than;
190 trieu tan d i u thd; 76 ty m^ khi do't;
3466,8 ty Kwh dien, trong dd nhiet dien la 2790 ty Kwh, thuy dien la 585,19 ty Kwh... Mac dfl trong nflde cdn cd trfl Ifldng ldn ve thuy dien, ve than... nhflng mot sd' loai tai nguyen, nhien lieu dung lam nang Ifldng, nguyen vat lieu thie't yeu (nhfl d i u liia, quang kim loai...) da cd da'u hieu can kiet, bieu hien d kha nang khai thac tha'p dan.
De dap flng nhu cau xua't k h i u dang tang rat manh, Trung Qud'c da va dang thie'u va phai nhap k h i u ra't nhieu loai
tai nguyen khoang san ma trfldng hdp d i u md la mot vi du dien hinh. Da cd khdng it cdng trinh nghien cflu de cap van de nay. Tinh hinh dd cho tha'y sflc ep dd'i vdi khai thac tai nguyen d Trung Qud'c la qua ldn va nguy ed khai thac qua mflc, dan den kha nang can kiet nhieu ngudn tai nguyen dang hoc Id.
2. Van de 6 nhi^m moi trutrtig
Sfl phat trien nhanh va lien tuc ciia Trung Qud'c trong 30 nam qua, dae biet trong 10 nam gan day mang trong minh nhflng tiem an ve hiem hoa d nhiem mdi trfldng sinh thai. Nhieu thanh phd' d Trung Qud'c da dfldc dfla vao danh sach eac thanh phd^ cd mflc do d nhiem dflng hang d i u the gidi. Ben canh sfl gia tang khi thai d to, nguyen nhan ehinh gay d nhiem khdng khi 0 Trung Qud'c la viec sii dung rdng rai than da ed ham Ifldng lUu huynh cao. Hdn nfla, cdng nghe san xua't d Trung Qud'c p h i n ldn da lae hau
Tfl nam 2003, mdi nam Trung Qud'c cd it nha't 5 trieu TV, 4 trieu tu lanh, 6 trieu may giat... e i n vflt bd. Thfle hien ehii trUdng kieh e l u - dd'i phd vdi khung hoang kinh te the gidi- tfl cudi nam 2008, Chinh phii khuyen khich dan mua d td mdi, theo flde tinh nam 2009, Trung Qud'c cd 2,7 trieu dtd hi thanh ly. Dd la ngudn gay d nhiem kim loai nang khdng the coi thfldng. Cac diem nd'i maeh trong cae loai xe cd may mdc nay bang thiec, chi, bae kem, ddng.., khi tan dung thfldng gay ra d nhiem. Tinh hinh d nhiim cang t r i m trong hdn khi nhieu cdng ty Trung Qud'c khi xua't khau hang ra nflde ngoai da tan dung edng sua't van
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NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010tai chieu ngflde lai, nhap khau vat heu phe thai re ve tai che, dung lam nguyen lieu d i u vao.
Bao cao edng tac eiia Chinh phu Trung Qud'c thang 3-2008 tai Qud'c hdi cho bie't, nam 2007, Trung Qud'c da giai quye't cho 97,48 trieu cfl dan ndng thdn gap khd khan trong viec cung ca'p nUde ud'ng va dung nUde uong khdng an toan.
Nam 2008, Chinh phii len ke hoach giai quye't va'n de nUde ud'ng khdng an toan cho 32 trieu ndng dan...
O nhiem mdi trUdng cd can nguyen tfl cd ca'u nang Ifldng sii dung. Nam 2005, trong tdng cac loai nang Ifldng s\i dung, tieu dung than chie'm 68,7%, d i u khi chiem 24%, thuy dien va dien hat nhan chie'm 7,3%. Dieu nay dung vdi mot y kie'n nhan xet: "Cho den nam 2007, trong khi the gidi da chuyen sang d i u khi (Anh dflng diu) hay nang Ifldng hat nhan (Phap dflng diu).... thi Trung Qud'c van n i m ngoai trao Iflu phat trien nang lUdng the gidi - dang d trong thdi dai than dd, vdi hieu s u i t va hieu qua rat tha'p". Nam 2007, than chiem 69,4%
tdng nang lUdng thd sii dung va chiem 82,9% nang lUdng dflng trong phat dien, cao hdn nhieu so vdi mflc binh quan eua the gidi (26,2% va 40%) (lEA, 2007). Tfl nam 2007, Trung Qud'c dung tdi tren 3 ty t i n than/nam. Cong them khdi bui ciia hang van nha may ehfla qua xii ly, cua hang chuc trieu chiee dtd, xe cd ddng cd... da lam cho Trung Qud'c trd thanh nflde cd Ifldng khi thai C02 vao loai ldn nhat the gidi. Theo danh gia ciia Ngan hang the gidi, mdi nam Trung Qud'c cd
khoang 750.000 ngfldi chet vi d nhiem (chu yeu la do d nhiem khdng khi), cdn sd ngUdi sau hang chuc nam mdi chet vi bi ung thu thi ehUa tinh dUdc. 60% dan sd' thanh pho^ Trung Qud'c chiu mflc d nhiem khdng khi cao hdn 5 lln tieu ehuin cua WHO. Nhflng sd'lieu tren cho tha'y d nhiem mdi trfldng da trd nen bao ddng d Trung Qud^c trong thap nien d i u the'ky 21.
3. Chenh lech phat trien
Van de chenh lech phat trien cung dang ngay cang trd nen nghiem trong hdn d Trung Quo'c. Chenh lech phat trien dfldc thay qua nhieu khia canh:
chenh lech phat trien gifla cac tinh, gifla cac vung mien, gifla eac nganh nghe. Noi bat la chenh lech ve thu nhap, ve mflc sdng gifla eac ca nhan vdi nhau. Trong thap ky d i u cua the' ky 21, Trung Qudc dflOe bie't den nhfl mot nflde cd nhieu ty phu vao bac nhat nhi the gidi. Ne'u nam 2006, ea nflde Trung Qud'c chi cd 15 ty phu dd la thi nam 2007, nflde nay cd de'n 108 ty phu dd la. Nam 2008 la 130 ngUdi. Ben canh dd, Trung Qudc cdn cd hang tram trieu phu dd la. Tuy nhien, Trung Qudc cung la mot trong so it nhflng qud'c gia ed sd Ifldng ldn ngfldi ngheo tren the gidi. Theo tieu chuan Trung Qud'c: mflc ngheo tuyet dd'i cua ndng dan la thu nhap dfldi 785 NDT ngfldi/nam, thi nam 2007 cdn cd 14,79 trieu ngfldi; cdn neu theo tieu chuan thu nhap tha'p 786-1067NDT/ nam thi cd 28,41 trieu ngfldi. Tuy nhien, bao cao cua Ngan hang chau A nam 2007, cd 300 trieu ngfldi Trung Qud'c ma chii yeu la
NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2 0 1 0
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ndng dan, cd thu nhap dfldi 1 USD/
ngay.
Theo mot giao sU 0 Hiep hdi nghien cflu Ddng Nam A ciia Trung Qud'c, mflc lUdng ciia vien ehflc d moi ndi thudc Trung Qud'c la nhfl nhau. Tuy nhien, mflc phu ca'p lUdng lai khae nhau gifla eae dia phfldng va thfldng ra't cao d cac thanh pho'ldn. Nam 2008, thu nhap binh quan d i u ngfldi d Van Nam chi la 1874 USD, trong khi mflc eua Thfldng Hai la hdn 10 ngan USD. LUdng eua mot giao sU d Van Nam la khoang 4000 NDT/
thang. Tuy nhien, d ThUdng Hai, mflc dd dfldc cdng them vdi phu cap 5000 NDT/
thang^''.
Chenh lech phat trien, mot khi khdng dUdc quan tam giai quyet thoa dang se trd thanh nguy cd ldn gay bat dn xa hdi, can trd nhflng bflde tie'n trong qua trinh phat trien cua da't nflde.
4. Trinh dp cong nghe va mflc do sii dung hieu qua cao ngudn tai nguyen eua Trung Qud'c trong nhieu thap ky nhin ehung la tha'p, va tinh hinh nay v i n ehfla cd chuyen bien nhieu trong thap nien qua. Nam 1995, de tao ra mot ddn vi san xua't trong nflde, Trung Qud'c e i n g i n 3 kg than tieu chuan, cao g i n ga'p ddi so vdi mflc 1,8 kg eua An Do. Cung nhfl vay, ne'u An Do e i n 90 ta'n thep cho mot cdng trinh thi vdi mot cdng trinh tfldng tfl, Trung Qud'c c i n de'n 127 tan.
Cho den nam 2003, tieu hao nang Ifldng ciia Trung Qud'c tren mot ddn vi GDP van cao ga'p 4 l l n so vdi mflc binh quan cua the gidi, gap 11 l l n so vdi mflc eua Nhat Ban.
Theo nghien cflu cua Vien Khoa hoc xa hdi Trung Qud'c, vao dau nhflng nam 2000, Trung Qud'c xep thfl 56 trong so' 59 nflde dfldc khao sat ve sii dung tiet kiem cac ngudn tai nguyen, trong khi eac nflde: Dan Mach, Thuy Sy, Ai Len, Anh, Ha Lan, Na Uy la nhflng nflde sii dung tai nguyen cd hieu qua nha't the gidi.
Tinh kem hieu qua ciia Trung Qud'c the hien trong viec sii dung 5 loai tai nguyen ehinh la: nang lUdng, nUde, xi mang, s i t va kim loai mau - cao gap 1,9 l l n so vdi mflc trung binh ciia the gidi trong nam 2003. Thfle te nay cho tha'y Trung Qud'c ehfla thoat ra khdi md hinh phat trien dfla vao sii dung qua nhieu tai nguyen.
5. Hang kem hoa chat luong
Trong nhflng nam 2004 - 2006 hang Trung Qud'c tflng bi nhieu quoc gia keu than ve chat Ifldng kem. Tuy nhien nam 2008 la mot dien hinh. Nam 2008, Trung Qud'c dfldc nhieu nUdc bie't de'n vi da dUa ra thi trUdng (ndi dia va qud'c te) sfla ban do bi nhiem Melamine. Vu viec d i n de'n lan sdng manh me ve thu hdi sfla Trung Qud'c d cae nflde va vung lanh thd (Singapore, Han Qud'c, Hdng Kdng, Dai Loan...), mot sd'nflde cdn tie'n hanh tieh thu, hoac keu goi tay chay hang Trung Qud'c (Myanma). Sfl viec da mot l l n nfla canh bao ve nhflng yeu kem trong quan ly chat Ifldng thfle pham d Trung Qud'c.
Ddng thdi, dieu nay mot mat lam khd khan cho nganh chan nudi la'y sfla, mat khae lam giam uy tin hang Trung Qud'c tren thi trfldng the' gidi.
EU la mot dd'i tac thfldng mai ldn ciia Trung Qud'c. Uy ban chau Au (EC) cho
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NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010biet Trung Qud'c hien la ngudn cung chu yeu eho eae loai hang gia tudn vao thi trfldng EU, chie'm 54% trong nam 2008.
EC cdn cho bie't sd'hang gia tudn vao EU bi bat gifl tang tdi 125 % vao nam 2008.
Nam 2008, mat hang bi lam gia ed ngudn gd'c Trung Qud'c bi hai quan eua eac nflde thanh vien EU b i t gifl tang gap 2,3 l l n con sd' nam 2007. Cac mat hang hi lam gia nhieu nha't la dia CD va DVD, thud'c la va thuoc ehfla benh*^'.
Trong khi Trung Qud'c dang thfle hien nhieu nd Iflc de nang cao hinh anh, vai trd nflde ldn cua minh thi viec nhieu hang Trung Qud'c ed chat Ifldng kem lai lam giam uy tin eiia Trung Quo'c trong con mat ciia ngfldi tieu dung the gidi.
6. Van de ty gia dong NDT
Sfl gia tang nhanh xua't khau ciia Trung Qud'c sang My khien My chiu tham hut trong buon ban vdi Trung Qud'c ngay cang ldn. Trong nhflng nam 1997, 1998 mflc tham hut la 49,6 ty USD va 56,9 ty USD. Sang nam 2002 mflc tham hut la 103 ty USD va nam 2003, con sd' flde tinh khoang 120 ty USD.
Nam 2008 la 266 ty USD va sd'lieu sd bd nam 2009 la 243 ty USD (sd' heu eua My)<^'.
My cho r i n g mot trong nhflng nguyen nhan cua tinh trang nay la do che do quan ly ty gia eua Trung Qud'c. Tfl nhieu nam nay, ddng NDT dfldc a'n dinh ty gia cd' dinh vdi ddng USD, trong khi ddng USD bi mat gia so vdi EURO, Yen Nhat... khien hang xua't khau eiia Trung Qudc re hdn nhieu dan den mflc tham
hut budn ban ldn ciia My. My cho rang Trung Qud'c phai chiu trach nhiem ve viec 2,7 trieu ngfldi My ma't viec lam trong 3 nam (2004-2006) va cho rang Trung Qud'c cin ndi long kiem soat ty gia hoac tha ndi ddng NDT, khi lam nhfl vay, ddng NDT cd the tang gia 30-40%.
Theo nha kinh te Nicholat Lardy: "Neu Trung Qud'c dinh gia lai ddng NDT cl mflc 20% thi se lam thang dfl mau dich ciia Trung Qud'c trong buon ban vdi My giam bdt khoang 10 ty USD". Bd trfldng thfldng mai My trong chuyen tham Trung Qud'c tfl ngay 28/10-4/11/2003 cho ring, Trung Qud'c phai dieu chinh chfnh sach tien te, md ciia thi trudng cho sfl tham nhap eua hang hoa My.
Trong ngan han, nhflng bang chflng cho thay xac s u i t de Trung Qud'c chuyen han sang ehe do tha noi ti gia la ra't nhd.
Tuy nhien, do sflc ep tfl My va EU nen chic chan Trung Qud'c se phai tie'p tuc dinh gia lai ddng NDT. Mau thuan va xung dot ldi ieh gifla Trung Qud'c vdi My va EU se quyet dinh qui dao va bien do eiia nhflng thay ddi nay trong thdi gian tdi.
Tfl nhflng phan tich tren, cd the tha'y chat Ifldng tang trfldng d Trung Qudc cdn tha'p. Nhieu van de nay sinh trong qua trinh tang trUdng cao d Trung Qudc dang de doa rat ldn den ddi sd'ng con ngUdi, sflc khoe mdi trfldng, dn dinh xa hdi, uy tin qud'c te cua Trung Qud'c ....
Chinh nhflng van de nay la nguy cd gay trd ngai de'n qua trinh phat trien ben vflng d Trung Qud'c.
NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010
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Neu d bflc t r a n h thfl nha't, ngfldi ta vui, phan khdi reo hd den vang trdi day da't vi nhflng ky lue ehfla tflng ed lien quan de'n tang trfldng nhanh ciia Trung Qud'c thi d bflc t r a n h thfl hai, ngfldi ra lai ban khoan, budn ba, ii ru, lo lang, phien mudn, tham ehi edn keu trdi vi nhieu van de lien quan de'n chat Ifldng tang trUdng tha'p d Trung Qud'c. Day la hai bUe tranh tUdng phan khdng dUde dat trong eung mot phdng trUng bay.
Tiep tue vdi da tang trUdng dang cd, dae biet la vdi sU phuc hdi tflng budc kinh te the gidi nhU hien nay, Trung Qud'c dUde danh gia se tie'p tue tang trUdng cao trong giai doan sap tdi, khang dinh vi the' cUdng qud'c eiia minh.
Tuy nhien, hai bflc tranh tfldng phan nhu tren eho tha'y rat cd the trong tUdng lai Trung Qud'c khdng chi gat hai dUdc nhieu thanh tUu kinh te ldn lao, ma cdn cd the tiep tuc phat trien vdi nhieu van de nay sinh va hau qua khd lUdng.
Viet Nam hien eung dUde xem la mot trong so' it nhflng nen kinh te tang trUdng nhanh d Ddng A. Cho du hai bflc tranh tfldng phan tren ve Trung Qud'c khdng dUdc dat trong cung mot phdng trUng bay, nhUng khi ghep lai trong mot bai viet thi rat dang de suy ngam va lien he vdi thiie tien d nUdc ta.
III. NHAN XET VA KET LUAN
Ve ly thuyet, eung cau ludn can dd'i thi thi trfldng dn dinh. Tuy nhien, trong nen kinh te tang trUdng nhanh thi nhflng bien ddng cung e l u ra't manh.
San xuat phat trien manh khien nhu
e l u dau vao nhfl nguyen lieu nang lUdng.... tang dot bien, mflc eung eac yeu td' nay ehfla theo kip, dieu nay de dang gay pha vd can b i n g tren thi trUdng.
Nen kinh te tang trfldng nhanh do d i u tu tang manh. D i u tU tang ddi hdi lUdng tien mat ldn hdn. Trong nhflng thdi diem nha't dinh, dieu nay mau thuan vdi tinh hinh thfle te, lam cho ddng tien hi k h a n hiem tfldng dd'i, gay khd khan eho san xua't va Iflu thdng. De dap flng nhu e l u d i u tfl tang, neu cung tien qua nhieu de gay tinh trang lam phat. Dieu nay lai lam anh hfldng ldn de'n ddi sd'ng cua ddi ngu nhflng ngfldi lam cdng an Ifldng. Nen kinh te tang trfldng n h a n h thfldng tao ra sflc ep tang qua mflc e l u ve nguyen lieu, nang lUdng, lao ddng... de dan de'n sflc ep tang khai thac cae ngudn tai nguyen qua mflc, gay ma't can bang sinh thai. Mat khac, cac nhu e l u ve nguyen vat lieu, nang lUdng tang nhanh trong nhflng thdi diem nhat dinh edn gay khd khan trong nhieu linh viic khac nhfl cap dien, cap nUdc, nhu elu van tai... khdng dap flng kip. Trong ra't nhieu trUdng hdp, san xua't tang qua nhanh lai ham ehfla nhflng nguy cd khiing hoang, dae biet la khiing hoang thfla. Do khdng tinh toan dfldc, d i u tU cao, qua mflc trong mot thdi gian dai dan den san pham tdn dong nhieu trong kho, ne'u khdng tieu thu dUdc, nhieu doanh nghiep phai ban dd ban thao de thu hdi vd'n, ne'u khdng se khdng tra dUde nd cho ngan hang, dan de'n nguy cd doanh nghiep hi pha san.
Ve mat xa hdi, trong nen kinh te tang trUdng n h a n h (dae biet trong dieu kien
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NGHIEN Cl)U TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010tu do hoa kinh te) cung xua't hien khoang khong, xua't hien nhieu dieu
•kien, cd hdi eho nhieu hanh vi ldi dung, true ldi, vi pham phap luat khi ma cac lUc lUdng xa hdi deu hi cuo'n hut ra't manh vao vdng xoay kiem tien, tim ldi nhuan. Chinh vi vay, tang trUdng nhanh cflng di ddi vdi tham nhung, hdi Id. 6 Dai Loan, Han Qud'c dieu nay da dfldc minh chflng rat ro. Chinh vi vay, eha't lUdng tang trUdng kinh te phai hai hda vdi chat lUdng dan sinh. Va'n de dat ra la thanh qua tang trUdng kinh te cd thiic sU mang lai sU binh an va hanh phuc cho mdi con ngudi, hay ehi it cho p h i n ddng nhan dan lao ddng?
Mot khia canh khae la tang trUdng va bat binh dang. Tang trUdng nhanh cung thudng di dd'i vdi sii gia tang bat binh dang xa hdi. Viec gia nhap WTO cho phep va thue d i y thUdng mai tii do, khai thac cd hieu qua cae ngudn lUc eiia xa hdi. Tuy nhien dieu nay cung dat mot sd' luc lUdng yeu the trong xa hdi nhU ngudi ngheo, ngUdi cd ddn, ngUdi khuyet tat, ndng dan.... vao tinh trang phai canh tranh gay gat tham chi la mot ma't mot edn vdi eae thiie the khac. Ro rang khi mot nen kinh te tang trudng qua ndng eung gay rat nhieu van de, chinh vi vay, ma d Trung Qud'c van phai lam nhflng viec ma ngfldi ta goi la "dieu chinh", la
"ha canh mem", hay "siia nha trflde khi bao" de doi phd khi nen kinh te tang trfldng tren 10%. Phai chang cac van de kinh te, xa hdi nay sinh la ban ddng hanh vdi tang trfldng nhanh.
Ket luan
Tfl thfle te ve hai bflc tranh tfldng phan neu tren d Trung Qud'c, cd the rut ra mot sd'ke't luan nhfl sau:
1. Khi mot nen kinh te tang trfldng nhanh, cac van de nay sinh ve kinh te, xa hoi va mdi trfldng la khd tranh khdi, do dd cin cd quan diem va muc tieu phat trien phu hdp vdi nhu elu va nang Iflc qud'c gia. Theo quan diem phat trien ben vflng, mdi qud'c gia ed the vach ra cho minh nhflng chien Iflde va ehinh sach n h i m tang trUdng kinh te theo hfldng ben vflng, dam bao nhflng nhu elu hien tai ma khdng lam tdn hai de'n the he tfldng lai.
2. Tham nhung, d nhiem mdi trfldng, nguy cd can kiet tai nguyen, sfl gia tang bat binh dang xa hoi... khdng phai la nhflng hien tfldng ta't yeu, cang khdng the la ban ddng hanh vdi tang trfldng nhanh ma chi la ke't qua cua tinh trang quan ly kem, eiia sfl nhan thfle thie'u day du, thau dao ve phat trien ben vflng. La ket qua eiia sfl qua mai me theo dudi, tham chi theo dudi mu quang tdc do tang trfldng cao, eua sfl hy sinh mat mat nhieu ldi ich lau dai ciia xa hoi de theo dudi ldi ich ngan ban, trflde m i t .
3. Ba't ky nflde dang phat trien nao eung mong mud'n cd dfldc mflc tang trfldng cao, trong nhieu nam, de vfldn len, theo kip cac nflde phat trien hdn.
Tuy nhien, trong qua trinh nay, cac muc tieu ve xa hdi, ve mdi trUdng cung phai dUde coi trong nhu mue tieu ve tang trUdng. Trong bat ky hoan canh nao cung phai quan tam dung mflc va ke't
NGHIEN CIJU TRUNG QUOC so 6(106) - 2010
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hdp eae m u c tieu t a n g trfldng k m h te, eai t h i e n eae v a n de xa hdi va bao ve mdi trfldng.
4/ N h a n thfle ve t a n g trfldng b e n vflng p h a i dfldc coi t r o n g t r o n g edng t a c dao t a o c a n bd eac cap, p h a i dfldc phd bien eho t o a n d a n . Cdt loi eua v a n de v a n la eoi t r o n g , de cao giao due y thfle ve mdi trfldng b e n c a n h giao due k i e n thfle c h u y e n m d n . T r o n g mdi trfldng cd mdi trfldng tfl n h i e n va mdi trfldng xa hoi.
Gin gifl mdi trfldng b a o gdm ea d a m bao sii t r o n g s a c h ca mdi trUdng tfl n h i e n va mdi t r u d n g x a hdi.
CHU THICH:
(1) (PPl I Trade Fact of the Week j June 25, 2003 Foreign Investment m the United States Has Fallen by 90 Percent Since 2000,http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm7knlg AreaID=108&subsecid=900003&contentid=25
1817)
(2) (Nhiing tin tiic noi bat nhat 10 nam qua, http://vnexpress.net/GL/The-gioi/Phan-ticli/
2009/12/3BA16756/).
(3) (Why China's Investment Efficiency is Low- Financial reforms are lagging behind, http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/04061801.html)
(4) (Chu Tran Minh trong bai noi chuyen tai Vien Kinh te va chinh tri the gidi ngay 27/8/2009).
(5)(http://www.socbay.com/news/detail/trun g-quoc-la-nguon-cung-cap-hon-mot-nua-hang- gia).
(6) (CRS, Wayne, China - US Trade Issues, June 3/2009, tr. 2)
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. China sets 2010 economic growth r a t e at 8%, stressing quality of growth,
March 5, 2010, http://www.gov.cn/english/
2010-03/05/content_1548197.htm
2. Ma Jiantang, National Economy:
Recovery and Posing in the Good Direction in 2009, National Bureau of Statistics of China
3. Why China's Investment Efficiency is Low- Financial reforms are lagging behind, http://www.rieti.go.ip/en/china/
04061801.html)
4. China's Environmental Crisis, August 26, 2007, http://www.nvtimes.com/
interactive/2007/08/26/world/asia/20070826_
CHINA_GRAPHIC.html.
5. 10 Environmental Issues in China You Didn't Know About, http://matador change.com/10-environmental-atrocities-in- china-that-you-didnt-know-about
6. Environmental concerns in China:
problems, policies, and global implications 7. Xiaofan Li, International Social Science Review, Spring-Summer, 2006
8. CRS, Wayne, China - US Trade Issues, J u n e 3/2009
9. Global Fortune 500,
10. Wayne M. Morrison, China' Economic conditions, Bao cao ciia Ban nghien cflu phuc vu quo'c hoi My, 5/5/2009
11. International Energy Agency, 2007 World Energy Outlook
12. Thiic day tang NSLD nong nghiep va thu nhap nong thon d Viet Nam: bai hoc kinh nghiem tfl cac nUdc trong khu viic, bao cao cua tac gia cung nhom chuyen gia Quy Chau A tai VN, Be tai Ha Noi 7/12/2009.
13. Pham Thai Quo'c: Nghien cUu so sdnh tdng triidng kinh te cua Trung Qudc vd An Dp, NXB Khoa hoc xa hoi. Ha noi 2008
14. Kinh te Trung Quo^c tie'p tuc vUdn len trong nam 2009 bat chap Khiing hoang toan cau, TLTKDB 26/12/2009
