i;H HUONG PHflT TR16N MINH T6 Xfl HOI VICT NflM NflM
^P
Birc TRANH KINH TE VIET NAM NAM 2013 VA KHUYEN NGHI GIAI PHAP NAM 2014
Nguyen Binh Luan*
Ndm 2013, kinh le Viet Nam vdn con nhieu khd khdn do dnh hudng cua khung hodng tdi chinh the gi&i. Thong qua mot so chi tieu chinh Id tdng trudng, lam phdt. viec ldm vd xudt khdu rong, tdc gid khdi qudt buc tranh kinh le ndm 2013 nhdm phdn tich ddnh gid nhirng mat dgt duac vd chua dgt dirac. tir do du bdo vd dua ra mot sd khuyen nghi nham on dinh kinh te vt md vd thitc ddy tdng tru&ng kinh te Viet Nam ben vimg trong ndm 2014.
Tir khda: Kinh te Viet Nam; Tang trudng kinh ta; xuat nhap khau; Tham hut 1. Nhan dinh ve birc tranh kinh te Viet Nam
nam 2013
Khi nhan dinh vd biic iranh kinh te Viet Nam nam 2013, tac gia phan tich Iren 4 chi tieu co ban la tang GDP, lam phat, viec lam va xual khau rdng.
1.1. Tdng tru'dng kinh te
Trong bao cao ve tinh hinh kinh te- xa hdi nam
tiau udc dat va vucrt, 2 chi tiau xap xi dat, 2 chi tiau khdng dat (tang trudng va viec lam). Tdng thu ngan sach udc dal 96,9% ke hoach, tdng chi udc dat 100,8% ka hoach. Vdn dau tu tryc tiap nudc ngoai (FDl) vao Viet Nam ca dang ky cap mdi va lang tham la 20,82 ly USD, tang 54,2% so vdi cung ky nam 2012, udc ca nam 2013 dat khoang 22 ty USD, vdn thuc hien lang 6,4%. Tang irudng GDP nam 2013, Thu nidng Nguyin Tin Dung cho biat, nam 2013 udc dat khoang 5,4%. Tdc do tang trudng kinh qua, kinh le vT md co ban dn djnh, lam phat dugc te trong 4 qui nam 2013 va tang trudng kinh tc qua kiem soat, kinh te cd budc phue hdi, tai ca ciu kinh giai doan 2004-2013 dugc trinh bay d hinh I va2.
ta dat dugc kat qua budc dau, Trong sd 15 chi tieu Tdc do tang trudng kinh te qua cac quy trong nam dugc Qude hdi thdng qua cho nam nay, cd 11 chi 2013 tuy tang din vB eudi nam nhung d mirc rit
Hinh 1: Tang truffng GDP trong cac quy nam 2013
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
4.890/0 4.90%
6.00°/o
Ngudn: Tdc gia tdng h^rp
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y.00%
8.00% - 7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
INH HUONG PHflT TRieN KINH TG Xfl H O I VICT NflM NRM 2014
Hinh 2: Tdc 36 tang trudfng kinh te tir 2004 - 2013 8.50% „ „ „ „ 8.50%
thap khdng du eai thien dd cd the hoan thanh ke hoach tang trudng kinh ta ca nam 2013 (ka hoach lang Irudng kinh ta nam 2013 la 5,8%). Dieu do cho thay, kmh te nudc ta van dang trong giai doan khd khan, liep lyc phai ddi mat vdi ap luc Idn trong ngan han va chua the trd lai quy dao tang trudng nhanh trong 1-2 nam tdi. Tdc dp tang Inrdng kmh ta binh quan 3 nam 2011-2013 du kian se chi dat5,6%/nam, la mirc thap nhal trong 13 nam trd lai day, thap xa so vdi chi tiau tang trirdng binh quan tbeo ke hoach (6,5 - 7%).
1.2. Lgm phdt
Trong nam 2013, tinh hinh lam phat tuong ddi dn dinh. Chi sd gia lieu dung (CPI) thang 11 tang cham lai, d mirc 0,34% so vdi thang 10, tang 5,5% so vdi
8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (dU kien)
Nguon: Tdc gid long hap Ihang 12/2012 va tang 5,78% so vdi ciing ky nam 2012. Du bao thang 12/2013, chi sd gia tang khoang 0,62% so vdi thang 11/2013. Nhu vay, tdc dp lam phat (so vdi eiing ky) trong thang 11/2013 da cham lai d mue thip thu 2 ke tir nam 2003 trd lai day (chi sau nam 2009).
Nguyan nhan chu yeu la do tdng cau ciia nen kinh te van cdn yeu, khien cho miic lang gia cua cac thang eudi nam tang thap, trai vdi Ihdng Ie Ihudng thay trong 10 nam gan day Lam phat nam 2013 bi cbi phdi chu yau bdi yau td chi phi day (diau chinh gia dich vu cdng va gia cac nhdm hang ca ban do Nha nudc quan ly), thd hien Iran hinh 3. Dy bao ca nam, lam phat se khdng qua 6,3%, myc tiau kiem che lam phat Ihap hem so vdi nam 2012 la hoan loan Hinh 3: CPI tdng the va CPI loai trir yeu td miia vu cac thang nam 2013
(% so vdi eung ky)
- - 0 - - a -
- . - • o ' ' ' '
^ •
*r^--°
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 TIO T i l T12 (dU kien) CPI tong the - o - - CPI loai trii yeu to mua v
Nguon: UBGSTCQG linh todn
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kha thi. Nhu vay, den thdi diam hien nay, cd tha ndi Viet Nam da dat dugc thanh cdng trong cdng cudc kiem soat lam phat trong nam 2013. Nam 2013 la nam thii 2 lien tiap Viet Nam da thanh cdng trong viec kiam soat lam phat theo diing muc tieu de ra ciia Qude hpi va Chinh phu, qua dd giup dn dinh kinh te vT md va kich thich tang trudng kinh ta.
1.3. Uic ldm
Nhin lai nam 2012, ca nudc cd gan 1 triau ngudi that nghiep bdi nen kinh Id khdng tao dii viec lam cho ca lao ddng mdi gia nhap Ihi trudng va bd phan lao ddng that nghiep cii. Theo bao cao cua Tdng cue Thdng ka cdng bd hdi thang 12/2012, vdi su hd trg cua Td chiie Lao ddng Qude te (ILO), sd ngudi cd viee lam tang them 1,1 trieu trong vdng 3 quy dau nam 2012 nhimg ddng thdi, luc lugng lao ddng Viet Nam ciing tang vdi con sd tuong ty.
Theo thdng ke tinh hinh kinb id- xa hdi sau thang dau nam 2013, luc lugng lao dpng tu 15 mdi trd len cua ca nudc lai thdi diem 01/7/2013 udc tinh dat 53,3 trieu ngudi, tang 715,6 nghin ngudi so vdi thai diem 01/7/2012 va tang 308 nghin ngudi so vdi thdi diem 01/4/2013. Luc lugng lao ddng trong dd tudi lao ddng la 47,2 tneu ngudi, tang 249,2 nghin ngudi so vdi thdi diam 01/7/2012 va tang 98,5 nghin ngudi so vdi thdi diem 01/4/2013. Lao ddng tir 15 ludi Ird len dang lam viec sau thang dau nam udc tinh 52,2 trieu ngudi, tang 0,97% so vdi nam 2012.
Lao ddng tir 15 tudi trd len dang lam viec trong khu vyc ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san chiem 47.4'^ o tdng sd, khdng bien dpng so vdi nam trude; khu vuc cdng nghiep va xay dung chidm 20,7%, giam 0,5 diam phan tram; khu vyc dich vy chiam 31,9%, tang 0,5 diem phan tram.
Ty le that nghiep cua lao dpng trong dp tudi lao dpng la thanh nidn tai khu vuc thanh thi van cao ban so vdi khu vuc ndng Ihdn. Cu the: ty le that nghiep ciia lao dpng trong dp ludi lao dpng nam 2013 udc tinh la 2,3%, trong dd khu vuc thanh thj la 3,8%, khu vuc ndng Ihdn la 1,6%. Ty le thieu viee lam cua lao ddng trong dp tudi lao ddng udc dnh la 2,95%, trong dd khu vuc thanh thi la 1,76%, khu vyc ndng Ihdn la 3,47%.
Ty le that nghiep cua thanh nian udc linh la 6,1 % (duge linh cho nhung ngudi tir 15-24 tudi), trong dd khu vuc thanh thi la 11,4% khu vuc ndng thdn la 4,4%. Ty le that nghiep ciia ngudi Idn udc tinh la 1,3% (dugc linh cho nhirng ngudi lir 25 tudi Ird len), trong dd khu vyc thanh thj la 2,5%. khu vyc ndng thdn la 0,8%.
Nhu vay, trong nam 2013, ty le that nghiep cd xu hudng tang ian do san xual gap khd khan, anh hudng dan viec lam cua ngudi lao ddng. Ty le that nghiep d khu vuc thanh thi cua thanh nien gap 4,5 lan ty le that nghiep cua ngudi Idn,
1.4. Xudt khau rong (cdn can thircfng mgi) Hinh 4: Tri gia xuat khiu 10 nhdm mat hang loTi nhat cua Viet Nam
trong 11 thang/2012 va 11 thang/2013
16.4
1
D l i thang 2012
I M m
4.9 4.6 t-9 4 2 ^-^ 4,3in. a
Di^n thoai Hang det. May vi tinh, Giay dep cdc lofi va may san ptiam cac loai
Ilnh ki^n dien tir &
lmh kien
E)au tho Hang thuy May moc, Go va san PhUdng den Gao san thiet bi pham Hi go van tai va
dung cu & phu tung phu tiing
Nguon: Sa bg tinh hinh xuat khdu. nhdp khdu hdng hoa cua Viet Nam tir ngdy 16/11/2013 den ngdy 30/11.2013 (2013)
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1.4.1. Xudt khdu
Kim ngach hang hda xuit khiu thang 11 /2013 udc tinh dat 12,3 ty USD, giam 2,5% so vdi thang trudc va tang 18,9% so vdi cung ky nam 2012. Kim ngach hang hda xuit khiu 11 thang udc dat 121,023 ty USD, tang 16,2% so vdi cung ky nam horde. Thdng thudng, thang 12 bao gid cung la diang cd kim ngach xuit khiu cao nhil h-ong nam, ca nam 2013 udc dat 133-133,5 ly USD, bao gdm: Khu vyc kinh td trong nude dal 39,9 ly USD, tang 3,6%; khu vue cd vdn diu tu nudc ngoai (ke ca dau thd) dat 81,2 ty USD, tang eao d muc 23,5%, the hien d hinh 4.
Trong cac mat hang xuat khau chu yau 11 thang nam 2013, mdt sd mat hang cd kim ngach tang eao so vdi cung ky nam Irudc la: Dien thoai va cac loai va linh kien dal 20,2 ty USD, tang 78,4%; hang del, may dat 16,4 ty USD, tang 19,7%; dien hi, may tinh va linh kien dal 9,9 ty USD, tang 41,6%; giay dep dat 7,4 ty USD, tang 14,2%; gd va san pham gd dat 4,9 ty USD, lang 15,8%; tui xach, vi, va li, mii, d dii dat 1,7 ly USD, tang 26,6%; san pham tir chat deo dat 1,6 ly USD, lang 13,2%, rau qua dal 0,9 ly USD, tang 24,2%.
1.4 2 Nhgp khdu
Kim ngach hang hda nhap khau thang 11/2013 udc tinh dal 12,2 ty USD, giam 2,1% so vdi thang
Hinh 5: Tri gia nhap khau 10 nhom mat hang Idn nhSt cua Vift Nam trong 11 thang/2012 va 11 thang/2013
T y U S D
trudc va tang 23,1% so vdi ciing ky nam trudc. Kim ngach hang hda nhap khau 11 thang dat 121,1 ty USD, tang 16,5% so vdi cung ky nam 2012 (du kien nam 2013 dat 133 ty USD), bao gdm: Khu vuc kinh te trong nudc dat 52,2 ty USD, tang 6%; khu vyc co vdn dau tu nudc ngoai dat 68,9 ty USD, tang 26%.
Mol sd mat hang cd kim ngach nhap khau 11 thang tang cao so vdi cung ky nam trudc la: May mde, thiet bi, dung cy, phu tung dat 17 ty USD, tang 15,6%; Dien tir may tinh va linh kien dat 16,5 ty USD, tang 38,8%; vai dat 7,7 ty USD, tang 19,1%;
dien thoai cae loai va linh kien dal 7,6 ly USD, lang 70,7%; chit deo dat 5,2 ty USD, tang 19%; thirc an gia siic va nguyen phu lieu dat 2,8 ty USD, tang 27,2%, tha hien d hinh 5.
L4.3. Cdn cdn thuang mgi
Trong mudi thang nam 2013, nhap sieu hang hoa thuc hien la 146 trieu USD. Thang 11 xuat sieu udc tinh 50 trieu USD Tinh ehung 11 thang, nhap sieu 96 trieu USD, bang 0,1% ldng kim ngach hang hda xuit khau, trong dd khu vue kinh td trong nudc nhap sieu 12,3 ty USD; khu vyc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai xual siau 12,2 ty USD.
2. Nhan xet
Qua phan tich Iran chung la cd mdt sd nhan xet ve tinh hinh kinh te nam 2013 cua Viet Nam nhu sau:
B l l thang/2Q13 D i l thang/2012
2,6 2.4 2,3 ^-^ 2.2
May^moc, May vi tinh, Vai cac loai Dien thoai Xang dau Sat thep Chat deo Nguyen Hoa chat Thii'c 3n thiet bi, san pham va cac loai cac loai cac loai va nguyen phu lieu gia sue va dung cu & dien tif va linh kien lieu det, may, nguyen lieu
phu tiing lmh kien da, giay
Ngudn: Sa bo tinh hinh xudt khdu. nhdp khdu hdng hoa cua Viet Nam tie ngdy 16/11/2013 den ngay 3011 2013(2013)
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Tang trudng tiep tyc tang din qua cac quy va GDP quy FV dy bao se tang d miic 6% do tdng ciu nen kinh te se chuydn bien tich cue han khi tinh dan linh chat miia vu va tac ddng ciia dp tre chinh sach (khoang 9 thang) trong nhirng thang cudi nam. Do vay, lang trudng ca nam dugc du bao dal 5,4%. Mdt sd ehi sd kinh ta vT md chinh cd chuyan dau hieu kha quan hem Irong Ihang nhu san xuit, xuit khiu, lam phat, vdn dau tu FDI. Cbi so chiing khoan-chi bao sdm eua ndn kinh ta cung cho thay dau hieu da qua day trung dai han.
Trong 11 thang diu nam, xuat khiu tiep Uic tang Irudng kha (lang 16,2%), nhap sieu d miic thap nhit trong nhieu nam trd lai day (tham hyt 96 trieu USD). Trong dd, khu vuc FDI hien vin la try cdt trong hoat ddng xual khau vdi ty trgng 61,3% tdng kim ngach xuat khSu (lang 27,2% so vdi cung ky), Trong khi dd, do chju lac ddng manh cua chinh sach trong nudc, hoat ddng xuat nhap khau cua khu vue doanh nghiep trong nudc syt giam manh han ke tir nam 2011 so vdi khu vyc FDI. Xu hudng cd phan cai thien ban trong nam 2013 so vdi nam 2012 khi boat ddng xual khau va nhap khau cua khu vuc nay ian lugt tang 3% va 3,5% so vdi ciing ky. Tang trudng nhap khau nhdm hang nguyen lieu phue vu san xuat va may mde phue vy san xuat cho thay cd trien vgng phue hdi san xual trong nudc.
Tuy nhien, kha nang dat duge muc ticu tang trudng 5,5% cung nhu viec duy Iri tdc dp tang trudng cao han trong trung han dang gap nhieu thach thirc. Phan tich xu tha tang irudng dai han cho thay tang trudng dang trong xu the giam ke tir nam 2006 dan nay do hipu qua lang trudng thap, md hinh tang trudng khdng cdn phu hgp. Do dd, can phai day manh lien trinh lai ea cau nan kinh te trong vdng 2-3 nam tdi nham nang eao nang suat cua nan kinh te, cai thipn tdc dp tang trudng dai ban.
Nam 2013 gap nhidu khd khan, khdng kem nam 2012 Do mpt sd nguyen nhan:
Thd nhdt, tinh trang u am, cham dirac cai ihien va licp ti,ic bat dn (xet tdng thd) cua nen kinh ta tha gidi. Sdng gid kinh le khu vye EU chua lang diu, tham chi cdn bj de dpa manh ban. Kinh te Trung Quoc dang g^p nhieu van de ca eau. khdng cd ca sd de giai quyat nhanh; lam cho xu the giam tdc dp liing trudng m^nh ian va chua ham l^i dugc, Xung
dot trdn cac vung bien Ddng A, dac biet la xung dot Trung - Nhat, se gay ra nhimg he lyy tieu cue khd ludng. Cac dy bao tdng the ve trien vpng kinh id tha gidi nam 2014 tiep tyc theo chieu hudng "am dam", Thu hai, xu hudng nap Uic khd khan cua nen kinh te nam 2013 chinh la cac yeu Id ddng gdp tang trudng trong nudc.
- Tdc dp tang trudng tin dung thap cho mdt nen kinh ta ma tang trudng dya chu yeu vao \dn. Theo NHNN du bao, trong nam 2013 tang trudng tin dung se dal 12%, ndu tinh ca lam phat, lin dung thyc ta chi ddng gdp rat nhd vao tang trudng, khd ky vpng mdt su gia lang manh tin dung trong thai gian tdi vi cho den nay, cae yeu td can trd tang tin dyng (cac "cue mau ddng" ng xau, hang tdn kho va lai sual cao) van chua dupc giai Ida nhanh.
Xu hudng long cau van tri tra, khdng tha cai thien nhanh trong mdt nan kinh le ma xu hudng "di xudng" cua tang trudng va nguy co lam phat cao van cdn ihudng true.
- Tinh tha phat trian ddi hdi phai danh ngudn luc du Idn cho cae hoal ddng tai ca eau, Tuy nhien, eho dan nay van chua cd ca sd da xac dinh can phai danh bao nhieu vdn cho cdng cudc nay (tiiy thudc vao Chucmg trinh hanh ddng thuc ta cua Chinh phii nham muc tieu tai ca cau), song nguyen tac chung la can uu lien cho nhiem vu nay, Nhung neu danh nhieu ngudn luc cho tai ca cau thi cd nghia la phan vdn danh phue vu tang tnrdng GDP true liep cang it di
Dudng nhu biic tranh kinh tc 2013. vdi nhirng dudng net \ e o tren, su khdi sac van cdn khiem ton.
Nhung dd chi la buc tranh dua Iran nhirng gia djnh
"cimg" va cac diau kien "vat the", ca Irong nudc lan qude te ciia qua trinh lang tnrdng, birc tranh dd cdn chua lai mdt khdng gian cho sac hdng: nam 2013 neu dugc chpn la nam cho nhirng hanh ddng tai ca cau thuc su, manh me va bai ban thi sy "linh lang".
tham chi ke ca xu hudng "di xudng", cua tdc dd lang trudng GDP van bao hieu mpt su thay ddi cd tinh budc ngoat theo hudng di ian manh me eiia nen kinh le cho nhung nam ticp thco
3. Du- bao nam 2014
Nam 2014, Viet Nam chuan bi buac vau niim cudi cua ke hoach 5 nam 2011 - 2015 tuy da co khoi sac nhung van cdn cd nhirng khd khan nhat djnh
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khdng thua kem nam 2013. Mdt sd du bao tinh hinh kinh le xa hpi nam 2014:
Tinh hmh kinh id tha gidi cd nhijng khdi sac hong nam 2014, tang trudng toan cau ve ca ban dang tran da phyc hdi, dii cdn tiem an nhieu yeu td nii ro va chua viing chac. Theo dd, tang trudng kinh ta Viet Nam nam 2014 dugc du doan cd nhieu kha nang se hdi phue nhimg se thieu ben viing neu nhiing tdn lai mang tinh ca cau ciia nan kinh ta chua dugc giai quyet, nhu yau kem ve co sd ha tang, chat lupng ngudn nhan luc thap, nganh cdng nghiep hd Irg chua phat trian, bat cap tdn tai trong he thdng lual phap, chinh sach, thien lai, bao lu lian liep xay ra, gay thiet hai nang na ddn san xuat va ddi sdng eua nhan dan... Nam 2014 cung ddm an nhiau nguy ea lam phat cao do tae ddng trd cua nhting chinh sach thao ga khd khan san xuat kinh doanh nam 2013.
Nhijng muc tiau tdng quat cua nan kinh ta, Chinh phd da dua ra du kian cac ehi tieu kinh ta co ban trong nam 2014 so vdi 2013, bao gdm: GDP tang khoang 5,8%; tdng kim ngach xuat khau lang khoang 10%; ly le nhap sieu so vai long kim ngach xual khau khoang 6%; tdng ngudn vdn dau tu phat trien toan xa hgi chiem khoang 30% GDP; ldc dp lang chi sd gia lieu diing (CPI) khoang 7%; tao viee lam cho klioang 1,6 trieu lao ddng; ly le that nghiep d khu vue thanh thi dudi 4%, ly le lao ddng qua dao lao dat 52%, Ben eanh dd, mdt sd can ddi Idn cua nan kinh te nam 2014 can dugc dam bao: can ddi lao ddng va vide lam; can ddi thu, chi ngan sach nha nudc; can ddi vdn dau tu phat trien; can ddi xual nhap khau; can can thanh toan qude le; can ddi ve dien va luong thyc. Cac chi lieu la kha thi.
4. Mot so khuySn nghi giai phap cho nam 2014 Tir thuc trang cua the gidi, dal nudc trong nam 2013, tac gia da xuat mdt sd kian nghi eho nam 2014 nhu sau:
4.1. Chinh phu cdn tap trung trong viec tdi cdu triic nen kinh te, theo lp trinh, theo hic&ng minh bgch hda cac the che, chmh sdch
Can cd ca che phan bien tir xa hpi, tii eac chuyen gia hang dau ciia ITnh vuc dd ddi vdi cae chinh sach quan trgng, anh hudng den qude gia, ddn boat dgng cua cae doanh nghiep, dan ddi sdng ciia dai bp phan nhan dan.
Viec tai co cau ngan hang can dugc thyc hien triet de va quyet liet, khdng chi nham giai quyet mpt phan van de ng xau trong he thdng ngan hang ma quan trpng han la lam lanh manh hda thi trudng tin dyng, khai thdng ngudn vdn cho doanh nghiep.
4.2. Hodn thien he thong phdp lugt de dieu hanh, dieu tiet nen kinh te
Ca cha quan ly kinh te cin dugc minh bach hoa bing be thdng phap luat, tien hanh chinh phu dien tu, thay cho ca che "xin- cho" nhu Men nay. Diau nay vira dap irng dugc yeu cau cap bach trong quan ly nha nude ddi vdi loan xa hgi vi ung dung cdng nghe hien dai. Ddng thdi, tiet kiem rat Idn ve chi phi va thai gian cho doanh nghiep. Ciing la giai phap lot nhil de chdng nan tham nhiong, hdi Id da trd thanh
"quoc nan", gay anh hudng nghiam trpng dan nan tang dao diic xa hpi.
4.3. Thay doi ttr duy ke hogch
Hian nay, viec bi trdi budc trong tu duy va tam nhin ke hoach hang nam dang gay nen nhiing hau qua to Idn. Mdt mat, nd dung duong "chu nghia thanh tich". Mat khae, nd khdng giiip md tam nhin da thiet lap mpt chuang trinh khdi phue eac ca sd on dinh va tang trudng ben viing ciing nhu thyc hien bai ban cac nhiem vu tai ca cau - thudng la nhung cdng viec ddi hdi mdt thai gian dai hon nhieu (3-5 nam),
4.4. Xay dimg chien luac quy hogch tong the cua quoc gia, thay cho chien lu-ffc phat trien timg dia phirong nhu- hien nay, de chi tieu dau ttr cong tap trung vd hieu qud
Trong mdi giai doan cua nen kinh te, can thay doi chi lieu dau tu cdng va quan ly ng cdng theo hudng tap trung vao mdt sd nganh miii nhpn, mpt sd dia phuong hoac khu vuc kinh ta trpng diam bang von ngan saeh, edn lai de cho tu nhan dau tu tran ca sd ed phan bien va kiem soat cua xa hpi. Cd nghTa la trong ngan han, can chap nhan sy mit can bang de lang trudng va su dung hieu qua vdn ngan sach. Day la chien luge ma nhieu qude gia da ap dyng, dien hinh nhu Singapore trong nhijng nam 1970 khi hp chi uu tien phat trien 3 nganh; du lich, vien Ihdng va van tai; Malaysia cung chi im tien phat trian cay dau cp trong nhiing nam 1970.
4.5. Tdi cdu true doanh nghiap
Tai ciu tnic doanh nghiep phai dugc thyc hien li
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t HUONG PHflT TRI6N KINH T€ XR HCDI VICT NRM NI^M
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viec tai cau tnic vdn, tai cau Uiic ngudn nhan luc, tai cau tnic san pham. Trong dd, dd ddi phd vdi diuc Irang kinh le hien nay, cac doanh nghiep nhd va vira can uu lien san xuat nhirng san phim it tham dung vdn, quay vdng vdn nhanh, uu tian giir vimg va phat trien thj trudng ndi dia. Linh boat trong hoach dinh chien lugc. Cae doanh nghiep khac trong nen kinh te cung can chu ddng xay dung ehien lugc tai ciu tnic doanh nghiep Iheo hudng chii ddng, lich cue, dam bao an toan cho doanh nghiep. Khac phyc linh trang dinh ddn san xuit eua cac doanh nghiep nhu thyc hian chinh sach miln giam thue, phi... hd trg va Ihiic day lieu dung ndi dia, chii y tap trung vao ddi Urgng thu nhap trung binh va thip trong xa hdi.
Thyc hien cae chinh sach thu hiit cac ngudn vdn trong nudc dua vao san xuit, thue diy tang tnrdng kinh ta.
4.6. Xay dirng lgi chien luac phdt trien ngudn
nhan lue quoc gia bdt dau tir viec cdi cdch he thong gido due vd ddo tgo mot cdch triet de
Chu trpng giao dye nhan each va Idi sdng d bac phd thdng, dao tao chuyen mdn, ky nang thuc hanh d bac cao dang va dai hgc.
Da cd the thuc hien dugc muc tiau den nam 2020 Viet Nam ve ca ban Ird thanh mdt nudc cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai, nam 2014 vin la nam cdn nhieu khd khan, nhieu thach thiirc ddi vdi Chinh phu, ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep va nhan dan Viet Nam, Trong do, ngudn nhan lyc la yeu id quyat dinh cua mpi ka hoach, chien lupc va chmh sach. Nhung dudi su lanh dao sang sudl cua Dang Cpng san Viet Nam, Viet Nam chac chan se vugt qua mpi khd khan, thir thach, de tiap tyc cdng cudc ddi mdi, xay dung dat nude Viet Nam phat trien ban virng, mgi ngudi dan am no, hanh phue gdp phan hoan thanh vugt muc ke hoach 5 nam 2011-2015.0
Tai li^u tham khao:
Sabg tinh hinh xuat khdu. nhdp khdu hdng hoa cua Viet Nam tie ngay 16/11/2013 den ngdy 30/11/2013 (2013), tir <
httpV/www,tapchitaichinh.vn/Bao-cao-va-thong-ke-tai-chinh/So-bo-tinh-hinh-xuat-khau-nhap-khau-hang-hoa-cua- Viet-Nam-Ui-ngay-16112013-den-ngay-30112013/38856.tctc>.
Vietnam's economy 2013 and policy recommendations Abstract:
In 2013. Vietnam s economy has entered a difficult phase due to the impacts of the global financial crisis.
This paper gives an ovei'view of Vietnam 's economy 2013 hy analyzing economic indicators including growth, infiation, employment and net exports The paper also provides prospects and recommendations for the economy in 2014.
Ihdng tin tac gia:
* \guycn Dinh Lugn, Tien si, chuyen ngdnh Kinh te qudn ly.
• Nai cong tdc: Tnr&ng Dai hgc Sdi Gdn.
- Hudrng nghien cuu. Kinh le hoc, Quan trj ngudn nhdn lire.
- Cdc lap chi dd cong bd cdng trinh. Tgp chi Phdt trien kinh te, Tgp chi Kinh le vd Phdt tnen, Tgp chi Cdng nghe Ngdn hdng. Tap chi Tdi chinh Marketing.
Email: luan.nd(d)sgu.edu.vn
.So 199 i/uing 01/2014
