KHOA HOC C O N G N G H t
OAIVH E l A TilMH D £ B ! TOM THUOIME T A I IVEUYEIM IMUOi: M A T TilMH IXIIIMH THUAIXI
Bio ^ ^ Tiiy*. Lf Anh Tuin' T6MTAT
Nude fa tai nguyen quy gia va cd tac dfng tdi hiu het cac linh vuc hoat ddng cua con ngudi. Tuy nhien, bong thdi gian gin day, do su tang dan sd, phat tridn kinh td va dac bift do tie ddng cua bidn ddi khi h$u, tai nguyen nuoc dang ddi mat vdi nhifu ap luc. De quan ly bdn viing tai nguyen nude, cin thidt phai dinh gia tinh tic dfng nham dd xuat giai phap quan ly tdi uu, giam thidu tie dfng. Bai bao gidi thifu phuong phip dinh gfa tinh de tdn thuong tai nguyen nude cua UNDP va ap dung cho khu vuc Ninh Thu|in. Kft qui tinh chi sd tdn thuong fa 0,50. Didu nay cho fliiy tai nguyen nude Nmh Thuin chiu siic ep cao, d$c bift Ii siic ep ngudn nuoc va su dung. Cin thidt phai cd su dau tii ha tang ky thuit nhu xay dpng hd, d|p dd tich nude cho miia khd, nghien cuu cic giai p h ^ su dung tidt kifm cung nhu nang cao nang luc quan ly, dd thich ling vdi cic fac dfng ciia bidn ddi khi hiu.
Tir khoi Biin ddikhih$u, tai nguyin nude, Ninh Thuin, He ddng, tin thuong.
I.MOBiUI
tar "**HlA Thuin fa mft tinh vung Nam Trung bd ii|li (hinh 1), cd ngudn tii nguyen nude thufc logi khan
hidm nhit so vdi ca nude, mac dfi cd them ngudn ijiii nude dupe bd sung td nhi miy thiiy difn Da Nhim.
jiilll Sdng Cii fa con sdng buydt mgch ciia tinh Nmh Thuin vdi difn tich luu vi/c khoing 3.043 km^ dii ,jUj. 105 km cung cip chii ydu ngudn nude cho tmh. Tuy nhien, md dun ddng chiy nim trung bmh toin tinh chua ddn 20 1/s.km^ frong khi trung binh ca nude
""' vio khoing 35 1/s.km- [1]. Ngoii ra cdn cd mpt sd sdng, sudi nhd d khu vue ven bidn, nhimg do lupng jijj mua tiiip nen lupng nude khdng ding kd.
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H k
Hinfa L Bin dd mgng ludi ttiiiy faf tinfa Nmfa Tfauan
Trong nfaiing nim gin diy, do fac dpng ciia bidn ddi khi hgu, miia khd d Ninh Thuin cd diu hifu kdo dii v i khde Uf t bon; tmh trgng thidu nude v i hgn hin didn ra khdng ehi frong mda khd m i c i frong miia mua [2].
Dd quin ly tdt tii nguyen quy gii niy, die bift frong bdi cinh bidn ddi khi hiu. cin thidt phai dinh gii tinb trgng dd bj tdn thuong tii nguyen nude. Tii dd. ehi ra cic ydu td nhgy cira, dd hi tdn thuong trude cic fac ddng ciia BDKH, chii dfng dd xuit c i c giii phip quan Iy tdi uu, giam thidu fac ddng.
2. niW QUW CM PMJDIK PHAP B/tJW GU TdN TIIUDNG Mdt frong nhimg muc tieu chinh cua vifc dinh gii bidn ddi khi biu fa du doin vd nhiing tic ddng frong tuong fai. Cd nhidu md hinh toin dd ngogi suy cic fae dfng niy d i dupe su dung nhidu frong cic nghien ciiu BDKH. Cic pbuong phip dinh gii dua vio md hinh kidu niy thudng gap Ii Khung dinh gii fac dfng eua BDKH v i thich iing frong Unh vuc sue khde "National Health Impact and Adapfation Assessment Framework" cua td chiic siic khde Canada [3], Khung dinh gii tic ddng dia IPCC (4), Tii Udu hudng din dinh gii fac dfng v i chidn lupe tiiich ling ciia UNEP [5], Khung dinh gii cua USCSP CTfae US country studies program) (6), Khung dinh gii eiia Vifn Khoa hpc Khi tupng Thiiy vin v i Mdi budng QMHEN) [7]. Phuong phip niy cd uu didm ehung fa dinh gii tic ddng tdng tiid cho mdt nginb/Unh vue hoic khu vue, tinh tiiin nhanh ' Trudng Dai ho^ Tai nguyen v4 IVIdi trudng TP. HCM
' Vifn Nghii-n ciru Bii-n ddi KJii h|u, Dgi hpc Cin Tho
NdNG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRI^N N 6 N G T H 6 N - KY 2 - THANG 9/2016 81
KHOA HOC CONG NGHfi
vdi nhidu kich bin BDKH, Unh boat trong vife thay ddi cac kjcb bin ICT-XH, bd trp cbo vifc xiy dung cic giii phap tfaicfa img tdng tfad cfao mft nginh/Bnh vue hoic khu vuc. Nhung nhupc diem chinb khdng tuong thich cho khu vuc nbd do dp phin giii dia cac md binh GCM, kbdng dinh gii dupe cue tri, khdng cd sin sd Ufu dd hifu chinh va kidm chung md hinh, pbiie tap, khdng cd su tham gia ciia cpng ddng, ca nhin cd Uen quan va co bin fa cie giii phip thudng dupe ip dung cho tirong lai.
Dd vupt qua nhupe didm niy, ed nhieu de xuit nhu phuong phip dinh gia chinb sich thich iing (adaptotion-poUcy-framew^ork) eiia UNDP-GEF, phuong phip dinh gfa cua Chuong tiinb dinh gfa fac ddng BDKH cua Vuong qudc Anh (UKCIP), phuong pfaip dinh gfa thich img vimg ven bd ciia Mein et al.
(1999). Cic phuong phip niy nfae dii cd uu didm hon nhung khdng danh gii dupe fac ddng cua cic ydu td khic ngpii BDKH vi chua tich hpp dupe ning lue thich ung ciia cdng ddng.
Vl ly do ben, td chirc CARE di dd xuit phuong phip tidp cin cfng ddng "Dinh gii tinh ti-gng dd bj tdn tiiuong vi nang Ipc thich iing vdi BDKH"
(Climate VuberabiUty and Capadty Analysis: CVCA) [8] bay Oxfam dua ra phuong phip thich iing frong bdi cinh BDKH bing cich quan Iy nil ro kdt hpp xiy dpng nang Ipe tiiich iing cfng ddng [9]. Pbuong phip neu dupe nguyen nhin tdn thuong ciia cpng ddng vi dd xuit bifn phip Uiich iing phii hpp dua vio ning lpc cfng ddng nhung khdng tiid dua ra du bio chinh xic vd xu tiid BDKH vi vi tiid khdng xiy dung dupe chidn lupe hoic kd hogch tiuch img dii hgn.
Dd danh gfa chi sd tdn thuong tii nguyen nude d luu vpe sdng Orange, Nam chiu Phi, SulUvan di sir dpng phuong phip td hpp tii ttiam sd ngudn nude cip (Supply driven vuhierabiUty (SDV)) vi ttiam sd nhu ciu sir dung (Demand driven vuhierabiUty). Dd tinh 02 tiiam sd fren, cin cd cic bidn pbu. Vdi ttiam sd ngudn nude cip, cic bidn phu fa lupng nude cap, sd ngay cd mua >25 mm, sir dung dit vi kha ning didu tidt ngudn nude. Bidn phu ciia tiiam sd nhu ciu nude: din sd, hp gia dmh su dung nude tgi ngudn, kinh te vi nhu ciu nude. Uch tinh chi sd tdn tiiuong fa him tdng cua 02 ttiam sd fren [10]. Tuong hf. Lane et al. (1999) danh gfa fac ddng ciia BDKH ddn tii nguyen nude d My dua fren 02 ttiam sd mdi frudng
vi xa hdi [llj. Pandey kbi dinh gii tdn thuong li nguyen nude d Nepal, di kdt hpp nang Ipe tiuch u ^ vio frong dinh gii bing ty sd giiia sue dp nguin nude vi ning lue thich iing [12]. Phuong phip danh gfa dua vao nhidu tham sd niy don giin. dd sir dyi^
vi hiiu ich neu diing dd so sinh miic dd gia ting ip lue len ngudn nude giira cac khu vue khac nhau.
Nhung phuong phip ed khuydt didm chi dinh gia tdn thuong vit ly ciia ngudn nude fa chinh.
Tfaeo IPCC. tinh trang dd bj tdn thuong cd th<
dupe bidu thi fa ham ciia miie dp tic dfng. miic d^
nhgy cim vi ning lue thich img [13]. Dua vio pbuong phip nay, Haryanto kdt bpp vdi phuong phip AHP dd dinh gii tdn thuong tii nguyen nude tinh BaU. Indonesia [14] hay Ammesh dinh gii tinh tin tfiuong tii nguyen nude vi giai phip thich iing cho Bangladesh [15]. Md hmh DPSIR diing dd danh gia, phin tich chudi nguyfn nhin - hau qui cimg dupe ai dung dd dinh gii tinh dd tdn tfiuong. Rasi Nezaim kdt hpp md hinh DPSIR vdi vifc phin tich kjch bin su dung nude dd xiy dpng chidn lupc quan ly tdi uu ngudn tii nguyfn nude luu vue Maharlou-Bakhtegan [16). Md hinh dinh gii tdn thuong ciia IPCC hay nrt hmh DPSIR c6 uu didm li cd thd dinh gii tdng quan cbo mpt khu vuc, mdt nginfa/Unfa vue, kdt hpp vii cic md hmh toin, tinh toin nhanh vdi cic kich ban khic nhau vi quan frpng tich hpp ning luc thich iing frong dinh gii tdn thuong nen cie giai phip dd xuit phii hpp hon.
S. PHUDNG PHAP NGHfiV d i u
Nghien ciiu nay sii dpng phuong phip danh gii tdn thuong tii nguyen nude do UNDP dd xuit Phuong phip niy dua vio khung DPSIR (Drivers- Pressures-Sfate-Impaets-Responses framework: md hinh chudi nguyen nhin - kdt qui) dd dinh gfa 04 chi sd tdn thuong: RS (resource sfresses: siie cp ngudn nude), DP (development pressures: siie fp khai thic sir dung ngudn nude). ES (ecological msecurity: hd sinh tfiii), MC (management chaUenges: kha ning quin ly) [17).
3.1. Tfadng sd siic dp ngudn nude (RS): fa tinh trgng kfaan faidm ngudn nude vi sv bidn dfng ngu6n nude trfn khu vyc
Hf sd khan hidm nude (RSs): lupng nude bung binh nam tinh theo diu ngudi fren tiiin kfau vpe. N^
lupng nude binh quin dau ngudi <1.700 mVnim; khu
N 6 N G NGHIEP VA PHAT T R I I N N 6 N G T H 6 N - KY 2 - THANG 9/2014
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vue dupe xem fa tiiidu nude. Tif 1.700 - 4.000 mVnim:
tfiidu nude cue bd. Ndu > 4.000 mVnim: dii nude.
f l 7 0 0 - / f
( ^ < 1 7 0 0 ) i 1700
[0{R > 1700)
Jl)
R- lupng nude tinh theo diu ngudi aia tien khu vuc.
a. Hf sd bidn dpng ngudn nude (RSv): dupe tiie hifn qua hf sd bidn ddng ciia tdng lupng mua trung binh nim fren toin khu vuc v i dirpe x i c djnh theo cdng thiie.
^^ {Cy <0.3) RS. =•
:0.3)
(2)
Cv: Hf si biin dpng cua ting lupng mua trung binh nam toin khu vtrc.
>»-#J. Tfadng sd siic dp kfaai ttiic su dpng ngudn nudc(Dl^
a. Hd sd siie dp ngudn nude (DPs): dinfa gfa miic df khai thic ngudn nude fren toin khu vue v i dung dd bidu tbj kha ning tii tao ciia ngudn nude.
Hf sd dupe tinh bing phin frim nhu ciu ntrde so vdi tdng lupng nude ddn.
W DP =—!!-
^^ W (3)
W^ Ting nhu ciu nude cho dc nganh tiin toin khu vpc;
W: Ting lupng nude din trin toan khu vuc.
b. Hf sd tidp nhin ngudn nude sgch (DPd):
phan inh ning luc quin ly dua fren ky thuit hg ting sin cd. Hf sd niy dinh gii kha ning cd thd dap img ngudn nude cbo nhu ciu thidt ydu mpt cich cdng bing v i dupe x i c dinh bing ty sd giiia sd din khdng dupe tidp nhin ngudn nude sgch so vdi tdng sd din ben toin khu vpe.
^^^=y (4)
Pd: Ting sd din khdng duoc tiip nhin ngudn nude sach.
R Ting si din toan khu vuc.
3.3. Tfadng sd faf sinfa ttiii (ES)
Hf sd d nhiem ngudn nude (EHp): Mdt frong nhiing ydu id rit quan frpng inh faudng ddn kfai
ning de bj tdn tfauong cua ngudn nude cfainfa fa lupng nude tfaii. He sd d nfaifm dupe tinfa bing ty sd giira lupng nude tfaii kfadng qua xu ly thai vio ngudn nude va tdng lupng nude tren toin khu vuc.
EH , = ^ ^ L J _ W
' W (5) Ww: Ting lupng nude thii trin toan khu vi/c
W: Ting hipng nude tiin toin khu vuc.
Hf sd suy giam be sinh thii (EHe): pbit tridn kinfa t d - x a fadi da anfa faudng rit ldn ddn mat dfm.
Tir do anfa hudng den ehiie nang cua hf sinh thii ddi vdi vife bao tdn ngudn nude v i gia ting kha nang dd bi tdn tfauong eua tii nguyen nude; hf sd suy giam smh fliii cd the dupe tinh bing ty le didn tich dit frdng (khdng dupe che phii bdi rimg hoic ciy frdng) vdi difn ticb dit toin khu vue:
EH =^—i-
^ (6) Aj: Ting diin tich dit tiing.
A- Ting difn ti'eh toan khu vuc.
3.4. Tfadng sd kfai ning quin ly (MC): Kfai nang dd faj tdn tfauong ciia ngudn nude cdn pfap thufc vio ydu td ning fa;c quin ly vdi c i c bf sd sau
Hf sd hifu qua su dung ngudn nude (MCe):
dupe dinh g i i bdi ty so giira gii trj GDP thu dupe tit mpt m' nude sir dung frong khu vuc vdi gii hi GDP trung bmh tir m^ nude fren thd gidi.
'W£„„ -WE ,
MC, WE,. -{WE<WE,,„) (7) [0 (WE > WE„„ ) WE: GDP tu mpt nf nude aia khu vpc.
WE,n^- GDP br mdt m^ nude cua thi gidi.
Hf sd khi ning tidp nhin dich vu vf smh mdi tiTidng (MCs): Khi nang niy dinh gii ning luc quin ly, dim bio cdng bing nhu ciu nude cho c i c hogt dfng thidt ydu cifa tit c i mpi ngudi. Hf sd niy php thupc vio ngudn nude sgch sin cd frong khu vuc vi dupe tinh bang ty If sd din khdng dupe tidp nhin vf sinh mdi frudng vdi tdng sd din toin khu vue tinh toin:
p MC,=^
^ P (8)
/»• Ting si din khdng dupe tiip nhin djeh vu vf sinh mdi trudng;
R Ting so din toan khu vuc.
N 6 N G NGHIEP VA PHAT TRI^N NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2016 83
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Thdng sd ning lue quan ly mau ttiuin (MCc): ning lue vd coebd cpng ddng, nang luc tbpe ttiL Cit Nang hie quan ly miu thuin cd thd dupe dinfa gii thdng sd nay cd tfad dupe dinfa gfa qua ma trfn nhvi thdng qua ning lue the chd, ning luc chinh sich, bing 1.
Bing 1. Thdng sd nang h>c quinly miu tfauin Quinly
Nang luc ttid cfad Nang lue cfainfa sicfa Nang lue vd CO cfad cdng ddng Nang Ipe tiiue tiii
Mdta )(iy dung thd chd quan Iy TTW giiia eae khu vue Xiy dung chinb sich vd quan ly tdng hpp TNN Co chd cpng ddng frong quan ly tdng hpp TNN Cac hogt ddng hpp fae frong quin ly tdng bpp TNN
Gfa tii 0,00
Thd che dupe xiy dung
Cd chinh sich chi tidt
Cdcocbd tbam gia ciia cdng ddng hieu qui Thuc thi cd hidu qui
0,125 TTid chd chua chit che
Cd chinh sach chung ehung Co chd cpng ddng ehi mdi hinh thinfa Cd boat ddng tfaeo chuong trinh, du in nhung kbdng cd hifu qui
0.25 Chua xiy dpng ttid cbd Chua ban hinh chinh sich Khdng cdcocbd tfaam gia eua efng ddng Cfaua tfaam gia efauong trinfa. dp in nio
Ngudn [17]
a. Chi sd dd bj tdn thuong tii nguyen nude (VI:
vulnerabiUty index)
Chi sd dd bj tdn thuong tii nguyen nude li him tdng cua cic tiidng sd RS. DP, ES vi MC:
VI-v,RS + V2DP+ V3EH + ViMC (9)
Trong dd: V; V2.V3 v,Ii frpng sd.
Sau khi xic djnh VI, cin cu vio bing chi sd sau (bing 2) dd dinh gii miie df hi ton thuong:
Bing 2. Ngudng dd bj tdn thuong
VI Ngudng de bj tdn thuong
Thip (VI < 0,2) Trung binh (0,2 < VI < 0,4)
Ngudn tii nguyen ddi dio. Cic ydu td fac dfng TNN nbu sue dp ngudn nude, d nhidm. suy giim hf sinh tiiii thip vi ning Itrc quin Iy tdt Pbit tiidn bdn viing Tdn thuong tiimg binh. TNN khu vtrc ed thd phit tridn bdn viing xong vin phii ddi mat vdi sue dp vd ky tiiuit cung nhu chinh sich quin ly. Vi viy budc phii xay dung chinh sich quan Iy mdi dd phii hpp vdi thich thuc su dung tii nguyen Cao
(0.4 < VI < 0,7)
Tdn tiiuong eao. Cin xiy dung cic chinh sich dd hd frp ky tiiuit vi giim thidu siie dp. Cin nd lue xiy dimg chidn lupc phit tiidn dii hgn ning eao ning Ipc quin ly dd ddi phd vdi tiiich thiie vd TNN
Nguy cip (VI > 0,7)
TNN bi suy ttioii nghiem frpng. Hg ting ky tfiuit cung nhu hf tfidng quin Iy khdng dip iing. Dd phit bidn cin mdt qui tiinh liu dii dd tii tiudt vdi su tiiam gia giira nhin din, chinb quydn vi cic td chuc cd Ufn quan
Ngudn [171
4. KtT q u i BMM CU TdN HUDNG Til NGUYn NUdC 4.1. Thdng stf siic dp ngudn nude
Hf sd kfaan hidm nude (RSs)
Tdng lupng ddng chiy cd dupe 2.267 tiifu
[18). Din sd nim 2012 cua toin tinb fa 570.000 ngudi [20). Tinh binh quin lupng nude fren diu nguH frong tinh frong 1 nim fa 3.970 ml Nhu viy, so sanh vdi gii tii dim bio nude trung binh fren thd gidi.
khu vue Ninh Thuin bj thidu nude cpc bf, dac bl(t 84 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT T R I I N N 6 N G T H 6 N - KY 2 - THANG 9/20W
KHOA HQC C O N G NGHE
vio cic tfiang miia khd. Do lupng nude binh quin diu ngudi >1.700 m' nen be sd khan hidm nude dfa khuvueRS5=0.
Hd sd bidn ddng ngudn nude (RSv)
Tren CO sd chudi tii Ufu mua trtn toin tinh dupe do bdi 08 trgm do bi nam 1997 den 2010, ed ttid tinh dupe hf sd bidn ddng cua tong lupng mua trung bmh nam toin tinh (Cv). Ap dung cdng thiie RSv, thu dupe kdt qui nbu d bing 3.
Bing 3. Kdt qui tinh RSv
hipng nude thai [21). Trong pfaam vi bii bao niy, ciing sii dung hf sd tren de tinfa tdng lupng nude tfaii tren toan tinfa (bang 4).
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3
Tram BaThap Phan Rang
NfaaHd C i N i Quin Tfae
Nfai Ha Tin My Sdng Pfaa
Thdi gian 197*^2013 1978-2013 197^^2013 1984-2013 1982-2013 1985-2013 1977-2013 1979-2013
Cv 0,41 0,38 0,31 0,45 0,34 0,24 0,33 0,37 RS,
RSv
0,8
4.2. Tfadng stf siic dp kfaai ttiic sii dpng ngudn nude (DP)
a. Hf so Stic ip ngudn nude (DP^
Trong giai dogn faifn tai, ket qui tinfa toin nhu ciu nude cbo cic nginh dia ei tinh li 748.507.083 mVnim (bing 4). Trong dd lupng nude dupe sOr dpng chii ydu phuc vu cbo sin xuit ndng nghifp chidm 71,67%. Tir cdng ttiuc (3), hf sd siie fp khai tiiic sii dung ngudn nude DPs = 0,26.
b. Hf si tiip nhin ngudn nude sach (DPd) Theo bio cio 1377/BC-BNN-TCTL Chuong trinh qudc gia nude sach ve sinh mdi tmdng ndng tiidn ngiy 28/04/2014, ed 84% sd din sd ndng tbdn vi 90% din sd tbinh thj d Ninh Tfauin sii dung nude sgch hpp vf sinh [19). Theo thdng ke, sd din thanfa thi eua toin tinh fa 161.730 ngudi va sd din ndng tiidn fa 408.270 ngudi [20]. Dua vio cdng ttiiie Xac djnh hf sd tidp nfain ngudn nude sgch DPd = 0.44.
4.3. Thdng stf hf smfa ttiii (ES) a. Hi sd d nhiim ngudn nude (EHp) Tdng lupng nude tfaii trtn toin tinh rat khd xic djnb hay do dac. Do dd. cd tie gfa da gii tiiidt fa 30%
lupng nuoe dimg cho ndng nghifp vi 80% lupng nude dimg cho cdng nghifp vi sinh boat se frd thanh
Nganh Thiiy san Cdng nghiep Chan nudi Ndng nghiep Rung Sinh faoat DuUch
Tdng cdng
Nfau ciu nude (mVnam) 48.909.781 57243315 39.077.885 536.474.928 38.197.250 15.430.740 13.173.184 748.507.083
He so 80%
80%
80%
30%
30%
80%
80%
Nude ttiii (m^/nam) 39.127.824 45.794.652 31.262.308 160.942.478 11.459.175 12.344.592 10.538.547 311.469.577 Tirdc so Ufa tren. xac dinh hf so EHp = 0,11.
b. Hf so suy giim hf smh thii (EHe)
Hf sd niy dupe tinfa bang ty If difn tich dat frdng vdi difn ticfa dit toin kfau vue. Cin eii sd Ufu tfadng ke vd faifn trang rimg [22], xac dinfa dupe ttidng stf EHe = 0,56.
4.4. Tfadng stf kfai nang quin ly
a. Hf so hiiu qua sii dung ngudn nude (MCe) Hf sd dinh gfa mue dd sir dung hidu qua ngudn nude bang cich so sinh gfa trj GDP thu dupe tir 1 m' nude sir dung vdi GDP frung bmh (0,86 USD) cd du<^ til 1 m' nude fren thd gidi [3]. Theo sd Ueu tfidng ke Ninh tiiuin, GDP nam 2012 ci tinh 3.675 ty ddng [20]. Tdng lupng nude ddn 2.267 bifu ml nhung tfaue td lupng nude su dung nfad faon. Theo kdt qui tinh toin lupng nude ddn eic fad chua vdi tin suit 85% chi khoing 1.337 bifu m' [18). Ndu qui ddi gfa bi cho 1 m^ sii dung tiii cfai dat 0,13 USD/ml Dua vio cdng tfaiie tinh thdng sd MO, kdt qui bing 035.
b. Hf so kha ning tiip nhin vf sinh mdi tiudng (MCs)
Theo bio cio 1377/BC-BNN-TCTL Chuong tiinh qudc gfa nude sgch ve sinh mdi frudng ndng ttidn vd kdt qui ttiuc hifn nam 2013, Ninfa Tfauin cd 65% sd din stf ndng thdn su dung nhi tieu hpp vf smh (19). Ket qui tinb hf sd khi nang tidp nhin dich vu vf sinh mdi budng MCs: 0.25.
c. Hf so ning lijc quan ly miu thuin (MCc) Diy fa tfadng sd tfad faifn miie df quin ly tai nguyen nude Uen quan ddn nfaidu kfau vuc (huyfn.
N 6 N G NGHllP VA PHAT TRI^N NONG THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2016 85
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tinh, qudc gfa). Mdt he thdng quan ly tdt cd thd thdng qua hieu qua eiia nd trong viec sip xdp ttie chd, thidt fap chinh sich, phdi bpp cdng ddng vi bifu qui thue hifn chinh sich nhu frong bang 1. De xic djnh ttidng sd quin ly miu thuin. phidu didu tra dupe gui ddn cac eo quan quan ly vi su dung tii nguyen nude nhu Sd TNMT, Sd NN & PTNT. Sd Cdng Thuong. Sd Thuong mgi vi Du Uch Nmh Thuin, cic phdng Tii nguyen cie buyfn tren dfa bin tinh. Phidu khio sit tip tnmg vao 04 ndi dung d bang 1. Kdt qua dupe trinh biy d bang 5.
Sau khi tinh toin cac gii tii RSs, RSv, DPs, DPp, EHp, EHe, MCe, MCs vi MCe, cbi sd dd bj tdn thuong se dupe tinh theo cdng thue (9).
Quinly Diemsd Tdng
BinK S. K^t qui tinh MCc Ning
luc ttid chd 0,15
Nang lue chinh
sicfa 0,1
Nang Ipc vd CO cfad
cdng ddng 0,1
Nang luc tilvc
tiu 0.15 0,5
De xic dinh frpng sd. tidn hinh gui phidu diiir tra ddn cie co quan ed Uen quan nhu d phin didu In hf sd ning lpc quan ly miu thuin. Dira vio kdt qua didu tra. xic djnh frpng sd bing phuong phip AHP.
Cic gii tii tfidng sd tiiinh phin (RS. DP, ES va MC) va chi sd tdn thuong dupe trinh biy d bang 6.
Hf sd Gii tri rieng Trpng sd rieng Thdng sd Trpng sd chung Chi sd tdn thuong
Bing 6. Kdt Siie dp ngudn nude
RS RSs 0,00 0,40
RSv 1,00 0,60 0,60 0,35
qui tinh cfai stf tdn thuong Siic ep vd su dung
DP DPs 0,26 0,50
DPp 0,44 0,50 0,58 0,25
He sinfa Uiii ES EHp 0,11 0,30
EHe 0,56 0,70 0,53 0,10
Ning Ipc quan ly MC MCe 0,85 0,30
MCs 0,25 0,30
MCc 0,50 0,40 0,55 0,30 0,50
Kdt qui tinh toin gii tri tdn thuong cho thiy, tii nguyen nude Ninh Thuin de hi tdn thuong cao (0,5).
Trong miy nam gan day, do fac ddng ciia bidn ddi khi hau, lupng mua ngiy cing phin cpc hon.
Lupng mua miia mua Idn va thdi gian mira nit ngin nen giy ra Iu quet hing nim. frong khi miia khd thi keo dii vi lupng mua it, giy ra tinh trang thidu nude nghiem frpng. Dd cin bang lupng nude giira cic niiia, cin thidt phii xiy dpng cic cdng trinh giir nude cho miia khd, didu tidt nude giira cic cdng trinh ed ngudn nude ddi dio d thupng ngudn vdi cic cdng binh it nude d khu vue frung du vi ven bien. Ben egnh, cin sir dung hifu qua ngudn nude vi ning cao ning luc quin ly tii nguyen nude.
5.lltTLU!lll
Nmh Thuin li mpt tinh cd ngudn tii nguyen nude thufc logi khan hidm so vdi c i nude. Trong nhimg nam gin diy, do fac ddng cua bidn ddi khi hiu, miia kbd d Ninh Thuin cd diu hifu kfo dii v i khde Uft hon: tinh trgng thidu nude v i ban hin didn ra khdng chi frong miia khd m i c i frong miia mua.
Phuong phap dinh gia tdn thuong tai nguyen nude do UNDP de xuat, dua vio 04 chi sd RS, DP, ES
vi MC da dupe su dung nhidu fren thd gidi. Ap dyng vao tinh hinh cp thd d khu vue Ninh Thuin, chi so tdn thuong tii nguyen nude la 0,50. ngudng t6n thuong cao. Nhu viy. khu vue chiu rit nhidu siic fp, dac bift li sure dp ngudn nude v i siic dp vd sii dyng.
Cin thidt phii xiy dung c i c hd, dip dd tich nude cho miia khd, nghien ciiu cic giii phip sur dung tdi uu tii nguyen nude nhu chuydn ddi co ciu mda vp, chuyin ddi ciy frdng, kien cd hda kenh muong, tudi tieu ti^t kifm... Ben egnh, cin ning eao ning lue quin ly, chuydn ddi cich quan ly tdng hpp tii nguyen nude.
Til UEU THAM KHikO
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KHOA HOC CONG NGHl
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VULNERABLE ASSESSMENT OF WATER
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RESOURCES IN NINH TWJAN PROVINCE Bao Van Tiiy, Le Anh Tiian
•Summary
Water is a precious resource and affects all aspects of human activity. However, in recent years, due to popufation growth, economic development and in particularly the impacts of climate change, water resources got a lot of pressures. For sustainable management of water resources, it is needed to assess this resource's vutoerability in order to proactively propose solutions to optimize management and minimize impacts. This paper introduces the UNDP method of vulnerabilily assessment of water resources and applys it Ul Ninh Thuan province. The result of vulnerability index 0,50 shows the the water resource get a lot of pressures. It is necessary to invest infrastructures such as reservoirs or dams to store water for dry season and study the optimal use measures of water resources as weU as improve the management capacity to deal witii die challenges of climate change.
Keywords: Climate change, impacts. Ninh Thuan, vulnerabdity, water resource.
Ngudi phin bifn: TS. Le Hung Nam Ngiy nhin bii: 11/3/2016
Ngiy tfadng qua phin bifn: 12/4/2016 Ngiy duyft dang; 19/4/2016
NdNG NGHllP VA PHAT TRIIN N 6 N G THON - KY 2 - THANG 9/2016 87
