PHAN TiCH & Dd BAO KINH TE
VIET NAIVI: THCJl CO VA THACH THL/C THCJl KY HAU KHUNG HOANG TAI CHINH
THE GlOl
TS. LE HAI M d
Pho Vien trUdng Vi$n Khoa hoc Tai chfnh BQ Tai chinh
The world is on the way of getting out from crisis much earlier than projections of many economists. Basically, the world economy is expected to recover under "V" shape and to regain momentum as before crisis period by the end of 2010. As regard to economic stim- ulus package of Vietnam, according to assessments of domestic as well as international economists, creative solutions of the Government have been rapidly and comprehensively deployed in sound direction, gen- erating visible effects and growth perspective of 7-7.5%. Nevertheless, in case of earlier recovery of the world as well as Vietnam economy (as in 2009), it is necessary to adjust stimulus package in order to ease pressures of budget deficit and public debts.
Presently, Vietnam is highly expected to have great potentials for development and is facing new occasion with specially favorable opportunities for its true development deserving potentials. However, to enter new development period, it is advisable for Vietnam to have a strategic vision in terms of its policies and solutions for post crisis peri- od with priority issues to be addressed including: competitiveness and business environment; economic structure, legislative issues and macro financial and economic stability...
1 . The gidi dang nhanh chong ra khoi khung hoang
The gidi dang ra khoi khung hoang sdm hdn nhieu so vdi dp doan cua cac chuyen gia va cac nha khoa hpc. Theo nhan djnh trPdc day cua Quy Tien te Quo'c te (IMF), kinh te the gidi se eo kha nang phuc hoi vao nda dau nam 201 0, tuy nhien, ngay gida thang 9/2009, Giam ddc dieu hanh cua td chdc nay cho rang "... no cd the diSn ra ngay trong quy tdi,...". Mac du cac nguyen thu eua nhdm G20 v i n to ra than trpng, song theo so' lieu cua cac chfnh phu, suy thoai kinh te toan cau da cham day va bat dau di len td thang 6/2009 nhd tuyen bo' eua Bp trddng Tai chfnh G20: "Nhdng chinh sach va hanh dong quyet doan, chwa tdng cd tien le cua chung ta da giup ngan can da lao ddc cua kinh te the gidi va da thanh cong vdi cac gdi kich cau tren pham vi toan ciu". Cd the ndi, thanh cong vang dpi nhat cua nhdng chfnh sach nay chfnh la sd hoi sinh eua mSng tai chfnh.
Can cd vao tinh hinh kinh te the gidi cung nhd hieu qua cua cac gdi kfch thfch kinh te, theo nhan djnh cua tac giS, ve cd b^n, kinh te the gidi se phuc hoi theo hinh chd " V " va den het nam 2011 se lay lai phong dp phat trien nhd thdi ky trddc khung hoang. Neu nhd thdi gian dau, Idi the cua gdi kfch thfch thupc ve kieu can thiep trde tiep (trddng hdp cua Trung Quo'c), thi trong thdi gian tdi, du the kfch thfch se thupc ve cac nen kinh te thi trddng phat trien.
Ve van de cham ddt gdi kich thich kinh te, Ddc va Phap de nghj thpc hien ngay, song cac Bp tradng Tai chfnh G20 thi cho rang can tiep tue duy tri, dong thdi, kien nghj cac chfnh phu chuan bj ke hoach rut khoi sd can thiep trde tiep vao nen kinh te, chpn thdi diem thfch hdp de cha'm ddt kfch thfch va tang lai sua't cd b3n bdi neu hanh dpng cham chap se d i n den rui ro lam phat, tham hpt ngan sach hay
"bong, bong tai san". Ddng thdi, cac nddc p h i i tan dung ed hpi
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THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 47 (11.2009)hien nay de thay ddi cd ca'u kinh te the gidi, loai bo nhdng yeu kem mang tfnh he tho'ng dddc coi la nguyen nhan gay ra khung hoang the gidi vda qua. Chau A can cai td sau sac ed ca'u kinh te va chuan bj nen tang phat trien cho chu ky mdi, chd khong chi tap trung hoac pho mac cho cac hieu qua tdc thdi, be noi va il vdng ben cua nhdng gdi kich thich kinh te ngSn han.
2. Suy giam tang trddng sdm cham ddt, Viet Nam can dieu ch?nh chinh sach kich thich kinh te
Thdi ky suy giam eua kinh te Viet Nam da cham ddt va tang trddng bat dau dn djnh td quy 1/2009'". Dp bao tdc do tang trUdng GDP nam nay se d mdc 5,5-6%, lam phat dddi 7%, boi chi ngan sach nha nddc dddi 7%
GDP. Dau tdxa hoi ddc thdc hien la 71 0 nghin ty dong, bang 4 2 , 2 % GDP. Toe dp giai ngan nguon vdn hd trd phat trien chfnh thdc (ODA) va dau td trpe tiep nUde ngoai (FDI) dat kha.
Tinh hinh tren la ed sd de nhan djnh Viet Nam la mot trong nhdng nddc ra khoi tinh trang suy giam sdm va se lay lai phong dp phat trien cao nhd nam 2008 ngay d quy IV va cd the lay lai nhjp dp tang trddng nhd nam 2007 vao thdi diem cuoi nam 2010. Dai dien IMF tai Viet Nam, ong Benedict Bingham nhan djnh, dddng nhu "Viet Nam da ra khoi khung hoang tuang ddi nhanh",
'" Q u y I d o t 3,1%; q u y II d a t 4,46% v d d u y III d g t 5,76%.
"' N d m n a y sCl d u n g k h o d n g 5,7 t y USD, c o n Igi se sC( d u n g het trong n d m 2010.
Tinh hinh va ddnh gid mdi nhd't ve Ichung hodng
Theo cpu Chu tjch Cue Dp tra Uen bang My (FED) Alan Greenspan, ngdy mpt nhiiu ddu hi#u cho thdy kinh te My cung nhu kinh te the gidi se h6i phuc ro net. G20 nhgn dinh, tdng trUdng GDP cua khu vpc dong euro se <5 mac 3%, My Id 4%. Theo Tdng thong My, dieu toi t§ nhdt cua kinh te My dd lui lai phia sau, con theo Pho Tdng tho'ng My, tdc dung cua gol kich edu rpng hdn, nhanh hdn vd cung dgt hi^u qud cao hdn so vdi dp kien. Phdp vd DUc Id hai nadc c6 tdc dp phuc hoi sdm hdn dU kien vdi mQc tdng trudng 0,3% trong quy II; DUc tdng trddng 1% trong quy III.
Vdi hdng nghin ty USD cau trd cpng vdi kinh nghiem ddi pho vdi khung hodng ndm 1997 dang giup kinh te chdu A c6 kha ndng tdng trddng ngogn muc trong ndm 2009 Id 5%: Trung Quoc, Inddnexia, Hdn Quoc vd Xingapo deu dgt mUc tdng trUdng GDP hdn 10% trong quy II; Nhgt Ban phuc hoi nhanh hdn phUdng Tdy;
An Dp cd the dgt mOc tdng tradng den 8% trong ndm nay.
con theo Ngan hang Hong Cong va ihupng Hai (HSBCj: "Viel Nam tang trUdng GDP bat len theo hinh chd V".
Ve gdi kfch thich kinh te cua Viet Nam, theo nhan djnh eua cac chuyen gia trong va ngoai nddc cung nhu cac td chdc quo'c te, cac giai phap sang tao cua Chfnh phu da dddc trien khai dung hadng, nhanh va kha dong bp, cd tac dpng ro net, tao ra trien vpng tang trddng t d 7-7,5%. Rieng cau phan hd trd lai sua't ngan han 4 % , ben canh nhdng tac dong tfch cpc, hien dang ton tai nhdng danh gia khac nhau ve hieu qua, nhat la cac tac dpng php cua nd. Td bai hoc nam 2007-2008, Chfnh phu can giam sat chat che cac dong tien va dda ra cac chinh sach thfch hdp, dung luc.
Cd the thay, mac du chi chiu tac dpng gian tiep eua cupc khung hoang tai chfnh chau A 1997-1998, nhdng phai mat 8 nam sau (nam 2005), Viet Nam mdi dat dddc tdc do tang trddng nhd nam 1 997. Han Qude bj khung hoSng nang ne, nhUng ho da biet tranh thu cd hpi, tai cd ca'u nen kinh te, nen chi tdi nam 1 999 da dat tdc dp tang trddng cao.
Nha vay, lieu sau ddt khung hoang lan nay, chung ta can bao nhieu nam de lay lai phong dp nhd nam 2007 la 8,46%?
Dieu chinh gdi kich thich kinh te. Hieu dng gdi kfch thfch kinh te da phat huy tac dung va hieu qua se con tiep tuc keo dai'^'. Theo nhan djnh cua nhieu chuyen gia trdng nUdc va qude te, trong trUdng hpp kinh te the gidi va Viet Nam phuc hoi sdm (nam 2009), gdi kfch thfch c6 the dddc dieu chinh nham giam ap Ipc tham hut ngan sach va nd nha nude. Day la each tiep can dung, song theo quan diem cua tac gia, can thac hien mot sd giai phap:
- Thao gd vddng mac nham day manh hd trd lai sua't chd nong dan khu vpc nong thon va lang nghe theo Quyet djnh sd 497/QD-TTg; tiep tue ho trd xua't khau bdi trddc mat xua't khau v i n la xung Idc Idn eua tang tradng; day nhanh dau td bang vdn nha nddc vao he thdng dp an xUdng song, huyet mach cua nen kinh te theo hadng tap trung, trpng diem; gan chat huy dpng vdi sd dung tranh lang phf; thpc hien bao lanh tin dung cho doanh nghiep neu nang dUpe hieu qua, sdc canh tranh, ehdng xu hadng bao lanh tran lan, lam rdi loan thj trddng tfn dung.
So 47 (11.2009) THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
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PHAN TICH & DU BAO KINH TE
Mat trai gdi kinh cau ciia Trung Quoc
Khi thijc hi^n kich cau va ndi long tin dicing, thj trudng tdi chinh Trung Quoc Igp tOc trdn nggp tien mgt, ddu tU tdng vgt Theo Ngdn hdng Hodng gia Xcdtlen (RBS), khodng 20% so' tien voy nCla ddu ndm 2009 do vdo chClng khodn, 30% dd vdo bdt dgng san... dd khien cho bong bong tdi sdn bung phdt. Ong Uu
l^lngkgng, Chu tich Uy bgn Giam sdt ngdn hdng Trung Qu&c khdng djnh: 'Cung vdi nd ngdn hdng gia tdng mgt cdch mgnh me, hdng Iogt nguy cd rCii ro ddi vdi ngdnh ngdn hdng cung dong dong Iogt tdng len". Yeu cau tdng cUdng kiem soat rdi ro ddi vdi cdc ngdn hdng dUdc dng Uu dUa ra nhdm gidi tda nhOng lo nggi ve vl$c bong bong tdi sdn cung nhu rui ro nd xau ngdy cdng tdng len tren thi trUdng vdn, ddc bi$t Id sou khi tong gid trj nd trong vdng 8 thdng ddu ndm cua Trung Quoc dd len tdi 8,15 nghin ty Nhdn ddn t$, tdng hdn 4,91 nghin ty so vdi tong gid trj nd mdi cuo cd ndm 2008. Cd ve Trung Qude dang cdgdng kiem sodt tin dung theo hudng siet chdt hdn nhung khdng Idm anh hudng tdi qud trinh phuc hoi kinh te hay gay ra nhUng do vd tren thj trUdng.
- Thay the "cum giai phap mien, i;ijin thue" phdc tap, klid tiiGii khai, hieu Idc phan tan bang giai phap minh bach, cong bang nham khuyen khfeh dau t d d a i han, ddi mdi cong nghe, chuyen djch cd ca'u kinh te, tang sdc hap dan moi trddng dau td sau khung hoang la "giam ddng loat thue sua't thue thu nhap doanh nghiep td 25% xudng 20%".
3. Thdi cd, van hoi va thach thiJc dd^i vdi Viet Nam
Viec Asia Society lan thd 2 chpn Viet Nam lam ndi td chdc hpi nghj nham hai muc tieu chfnh: mot la, cac tap doan da qude gia thanh vien Asia Society mudn tim hieu moi trddng kinh doanh, danh gia lai tiem nang va ed hpi dau td tai Viet Nam; hai la, the hien ky vpng ve viec Viet Nam cd the ddng mot "vai tro mdi". Hien Viet Nam dang la mot diem ndi bat cua Dong Nam A, cd Idi the ve dn dinh chinh trj - xa hpi ma cac nPdc khac nhd Philippin, Inddnexia, Thai Lan khong cd. Viet Nam CO the ddng vai trd Idn hdn d Hpi dong B^o an Lien Hiep Qude, APEC va ASEAN trong nhdng nam tdi. Hdn nda, mpt the manh khac cua Viet Nam la hdn 6 0 % dan so' d dp tudi 30 va la qude gia cd ty le dan sd tre cao nhat trong khu vpc.
Nha vay, chung ta dang dddc dat nhieu ky vpng ve tiem nang phat trien, dang ddng trddc van hpi mdi vdi nhdng ed hpi dac biet thuan Idi de thpc sd phat trien dung vdi tiem nang eua dat nddc.
Trien vgng phat trien. Theo Bp Ke heach va D i u td cung nhd nhieu Cd quan khac, tdc dp tang trPdng nam 2010 cua Viet Nam da bao vao khoang 6,5%. Ngan hang Phat trien chau A (ADB) cung ed dp bao tUdng tp, trnng khi ngan hang Credit Suisse (Thuy Sy) dp bao tang tradng se dat 5,3% trong nam 2009 va 8,5% trong nam 2010. Cung vdi nhan djnh "tang tradng GDP bat len theo hinh chd V...", HSBC cho rang, Viet Nam se tang trddng 6,8% vao nam 2010 va trong 5-10 nam tdi se trd lai mo'c tang trddng td 7-7,5%.
Nhdng van de can giai quyet de budc vao thdi ky phat trien mdi Ben canh thdi ed Idn, Viet Nam cung phai do'i mat vdi nhdng thach thdc khong nhd. Do vay, can phai ed mpt t i m nhin chien Iddc ve chfnh
sach, giai phap thdi ky hau khung hoang. Dddi day la mot sd van de e i n du tien giai quyet:
(1). Nang Idc canh tranh va mdi trUdng kinh doanh la van de
"cot td". Theo Bao cao Nang Idc canh tranh toan cau 2009-2010, Viet Nam da tpt 5 bae (td thd 70 xudng 75). Day la nam thd 3 lien tiep, Viet Nam bj danh tut hang.
Ket quS nay cho thay, nen tang kinh te eua nddc ta rat dang lo.
Ngay cS Thanh phd Ho Chf Minh, nam 2009 cung chf cd 1 % cong nghe san xua't dat trinh dp hien dai, 5 1 % dat loai trung binh kha, eon lai 4 8 % la lac hau. Khong nhdng the, Viet Nam con tieu hao nang Iddng cao gap 1,5 lan so vdi Thai Lan va gap 2 lan mdc binh quan cua the gidi. Do vay, de giai quyet van de nay, p h i i sd dung ddng bp cac giai phap nhd: don bay thue, che dp khau hao dac biet, tfn dung du dai, tai ca'u true cong ty ke ca lot xac thong qua pha s i n , giai the de phat trien..., bdi sau khung hoang, canh tranh quo'c te se rat khdc liet.
(2). Vi the che: Mae du Viet Nam da ed nhieu no Idc trong cai each, hoan thien the che, nhdng van con kem so vdi nhieu qude gia trong khu vpc va tren the gidi. Thu tuc hanh chfnh hien dang la mpt trong nhdng Ipc ckn chfnh lam giam sdc canh tranh cua cac doanh nghiep. Mpt chuyen gia kinh te cho rang, neu giam di 40%
thiJ tuc hanh chinh thi Viet Nam se tiet kiem dupe 2,8-6,5 ty USD/nam. Dieu tra gan day eua Td chdc Xuc tien ThUdng mai Nhat Ban (Jetro) cung neu ra 3 nut that
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THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 47 (11.2009)tang tradng kinh te cua Viet Nam, trong dd ed thu tuc hanh chfnh rddm ra, phdc tap. The che la tien de, gia dd cho nen kinh te sd dung hieu qua mpi tiem nang phat trien de eat canh. Mpt khi the che yeu kem se khong chi lam thui chpt dpng Ipc ma con lam phan tan, huy hoai cac nguon Idc phat trien.
Ve van de djnh vj dung dan quan he gida Nha nddc va thj trddng, hien nay, vai trd dieu tiet cua Nha nddc dddc nhae den nhieu, song Viet Nam khong nen l i n Ion gida gia tang vai tro dieu tiet vdi Idi td duy quay trd lai the che hanh chfnh quan lieu, can thiep tho bao vao san xuat, kinh doanh, hoac duy tri sp banh trddng phi ly cua kinh te nha nddc.
(3). Van de ca cau kinh te: Mo hinh tang trddng theo chieu rpng da len tdi dinh, song neu khong ddpc dieu chinh se cd the day sang mdc "tang trUdng b i n cung hoa", tang trddng nhdng dat nddc va ngddi dan ngheo di. Thue day tang trddng dda vao md rpng quy mo vdn, gia trj gia tang thap va khai thac thai qua tai nguyen, lao dpng re, se ngay cang lam vao kho khan va be t i e . Khung hoang da lam bpc 16 tat ca nhdng yeu kem cua kinh te Viet Nam va da den luc can phai cd sd chfnh ddn lai. Cd the thay, tai ca'u true chfnh la chia khoa de Viet Nam thoat khoi "bay"
'" Theo ket qua gidm sdt tgi 5 tdng cdng ty:
Td'ng cdng ty Thuy tinh vd Gdm xdy dJng (Vigracera). Td'ng cdng ty Cd khi xdy dung (COiviA), Tdng cdng ty cd phan D§t may Hd Npi, Tdng cdng ty Song Hong vd Tdng cdng ty Xdy dung Hd Npi, trong sd tren 4 trieu m' ddt dang dUdc cdc ddn vi ndy quan ly vd sO dung, cd tren 1,5 trieu m' Id cho thue. Trong khi d d , tgi Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh, trong hon 200 trieu m', cd khodng 50% chuo phdt huy het cdng ndng, sO dung soi muc dich, cho thue hcqc bp trdng.
tang trddng thieu ben vdng. Tai cau true can bat d i u td chfnh sach, khung djnh hddng nhdng nhat thiet phai gan vdi ed che thj trUdng, thong qua thj trUdng va xet cho ciJng v i n la lay tai ca'u true nen tai chfnh lam trung tam.
(4). Neu khdng khac phuc duac tinh trang phan bd bat hqp ly, sd dung nguon lUc tai chinh kem hieu qua, that thoat, lang phi nghiem trong thi Viet Nam khdng the cat canh va phat trien ben vdng. Thpc te hien nay, lUdng tien bdm vad nen kinh te Idn nhUng tdc dp tang trddng kinh te chUa cao, tang trUdng dot bien cua mpt sd nganh dang p h i i "dda d a m " vao nguon cung tien Idn td chfnh sach tien te ndi long.
Cd cau d i u td eon ton tai nhieu van de: d i u tU td ngan sach nha nddc tang 45,5%, trong khi khu vdc ngoai nha nddc ehi tang 1 2,6%, khu vdc cd vo'n dau td nddc ngoai giam 11,2%. Theo bao cao cua Bp Tai nguyen va Moi tradng, Kiem toan Nha nUde, Bao cao giam sat cua Qude hpi, phan bd va sd dung cac nguon Idc phat trien qude gia v i n trong tinh trang "kem hieu qua, lang phf, that thoat nghiem trpng". Hien ed den 3.311 td chdc sd dung dat khong dung vdi mpe dfch dddc giao, dddc thue vdi dien tfch 25.587,82 ha. Hien trang quan ly, sd dung dat cua cac doanh nghiep nha nddc cung trong tinh trang lang phf tddng tp"".
Theo Bp Ke hoach va D i u tU, nam 2009, ca nUdc cd 4.182 dp an vi pham ve quan ly d i u td, trong dd cd tdi 9 7 % so' dp an vi pham bj cham tien dp so vdi yeu c i u (4.076 dd an). Ket qua cong tac giam sat eua Qude hpi cung cho thay, nhieu tap doan, tdng cong ty dau td ra ngoai ITnh vdc chfnh song hieu qua dat ddpc khong dang ke. Hien tai, ca nddc cd 2.1 76 doanh nghiep 1 0 0 % vdn nha nddc nam gid tdng sd vo'n g i n 260 nghin ty dong, 75% tai san ed djnh quo'c gia, tren 80% vdn d i u td nha nddc, 6 0 % tdng Idpng tfn dung, 7 0 % vdn vay nddc ngoai.
Mac dij "ngdn" ngan sach Idn, cong vdi viec dddc thp hudng nhieu dat dai, song khdi doanh nghiep nha nddc ehi ddng gop chda tdi 4 0 % GDP, 3 0 % thu ngan sach ve thue va ehi tao viec lam cho 10% Ipc lapng lao dpng. Nhd vay, tiem nang ve nguon Ipc va tang tradng d day rat Idn nhifng de phat huy e i n c6 qud^c sach.
Gidi phdp kich thich phdf trien hdu khung hodng cija the gidi To hdp gidi phdp kfch thfch hgu khung hodng c u a c d c nUdc (My, Hdn Quoc, Trung Quo'c, Nga...) deu coi vif c gidm thue thu nhgp cdng ty Id xung Ipc trUc tiep, ft gdy tdc dpng phu, Theo ddnh gid cue Gido sU Robert Mundell, ngUdi dogt gidi Nobel kinh te ndm 1999, ke hogch kfch thfch kinh te c u a Trung Quoc "neu chi tdP trung vdo cdc dU an cdng cgng, xdy dtfng cd ban, thi khdng the giup Trung Qude trdnh khoi suy thodi kinh tS". Ong ndi, viec Trung Quoc thdng nhdt thue sudt ddi vdi tdt cd cdc doanh nghiep ndm ngodi Id dung, nhUng thue sudt d mac 25% vdn Id c a o , se Idm suy y e u sac cgnh tranh quoc te c u a doanh nghiep, Do vdy, neu mudn kfch thfch xud't khdu thi bien phdp dung ddn Id hq thd'p mUc thue sudt thdng nhd't, Trung Quoc vd My nen nhanh ehdng hg thue sudt thue cdng ly ta 35% xudng con 15%, Ong neu vf du DUc dp dung chfnh sdch gidm thue vdo the ky XX bdng cdch hg thue sudt cong ty ta 38,7% xudng 15%, qua dd
dd nhanh ehdng vpc nen kinh te thodt khoi suy thodi.
So 47 (11.2009) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI
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PHAN TICH & Da BAO KINH TE
(5). Van de dn dinh kinh te - tai chinh vTmd. Nam 2009 da tfch tp them nhieu nguy cd bat dn td ben trong nhd: hieu qua dau td thap, ICOR va tham hut ngan sach nha nddc cao, nd nha nPde tang, dd nd tfn dpng cao, nhat la phan vdn ngan han....
Ve np Chfnh phu, neu khong cd giai phap quyet liet thi trong vai nam tdi, nd Chfnh phu se tien den mdc gidi han an tdan dddc c i n h bao. Nam 2008, nd Chfnh phu khoang 36,5%, thi nam 2009 ddc len den 40% va nam 2010, dp kien khoang 4 4 % GDP. Nguy cd rui ro an ninh tai chfnh qude gia hien nay dang 6 mdc cao.
Can can thanh toan tdng the tham hut 1,5 ty USD, trong khi dp trd ngoai hdi giam (td 23 ty USD vao eudi thang 12/2008 xudng 17,3 ty USD vao thang 6/2009), kieu hdi giam. Viec "ndi long tai khoa va tien te" nam 2009 cd the se dan den nhdng kho khan trong viec duy tri cac can ddi vT md, lam tang nguy ed lam phat trong thdi gian tdi.
Lam phat ddng sd 1 trong sd 6 "ehddng ngai vat"
tac dpng xau den sp phat trien ben vdng eua Viet Nam. Khac vdi giai doan d i u tang trddng cua Trung Qude, sd tang trddng cua Viet Nam bi am anh bdi ty le lam phat cao. Vi vay, e i n du tien viec duy tri dn djnh kinh te vT mo, coi dd la tien de tien quyet de kinh te ra khoi suy giam. GiO lam phat dn djnh d mdc thap "5%/nam" la chia khoa de giai quyet nhieu van de nan giai eua n^n tai chfnh qude gia, trong dd ed bai toan lai sua't hoe bua hien nay. Lam phat cao dddc xem nhd "hung t h i n " ddi vdi mpi dp an, chien Iddc d i u td dai han nham ddi mdi cong nghe, nang cao nang Ipc canh tranh. Neu de lap lai tinh trang lam phat cao nhd nam 2007-2008 vda qua, Viet Nam se phai tra gia dat.
Hoan thien the che giam sat he thdng tai chfnh la yeu c i u bde bach va cdc ky quan trong nham d i m b i o an ninh tai chfnh qude gia. LTnh vpc quan trpng nhat e i n gia cd chfnh la he tho'ng tai chfnh va ngan hang. Tuy nhien, d Viet Nam, he thdng nay khong nhdng chUa dddc giam sat chat che ma eon chda phan biet ddpc r5 hoat dpng cua ngan hang thddng mai va ngan hang d i u td"'. D
'" Cdc ngdn hdng thUdng mgi dang dUdc phep huy ddng vdn cua ddn vdi ky vong khdng cd rui rp, sou dd Igi dung vdn dd ddu tU trdn lan vdo cdc hodt dpng nhieu rui rp nhu chClng khPdn, bdt ddng sdn.
NAM 2009: KIEU HOI G I A M NHl/NG KHONG NHIEU NHU D l i BAO
Theo dp bdo cua Bp Tdi chfnh, idpng kieu hdi chuyen ve nddc trong nam 2009 se dgt khodng 6,8 ty USD, giam so vdi mdc 7,2 ty-XISD cua ndm 2008 va phan idn trong so ndy se dupc chuyen ve nddc trong nhdng thang cuoi ndm, Nhd vdy, kieu hdi chuyen vd nddc trong ndm 2009 tuy c6 gidm nhUng khdng gidm nhieu nhu dp bdo trUdc do.
Kieu hdi id mot trong nhdng nguon cdn ddi quan trong trong cdn cdn ngogi hdi cua Viet Nam. Viet Nam cung id quo'c gia c6 lUdng kieu hdi chuyen ve hdng ndm rdt idn vd khdng ngdng tdng: ndm 2002 dgt 1,6 ty USD, ndm 2003 Id 2,6 ty' USD, ndm 2004 Id 3,2 ty USD, ndm 2005 id 4,29 ty USD, ndm 2006 dgt hdn 5 ty USD; ndm 2007 Id 5,5 ty USD vd ndm 2008 la khodng 7,2 ty USD. Theo Ngdn hdng The gidi, trong ndm 2008, Viet Nam ddng thd 10 trong sd cdc nddc nhgn dUdc idpng kieu hdi nhieu nhdt the gidi.
Nhu vgy, ndm 2009 id ndm dau tien iUdng kieu hdi ve Viet Nam sut giam sou nhieu ndm tdng lien tuc.
Theo ddnh gid cua cdc chuyen gia tdi chfnh, iddng kieu hdi chuyen ve nddc gidm Id tdt yeu do tac dpng cua cupc khung hodng kinh te todn edu (do dnh hddng den thu nhgp cua kieu bdo dang sinh sdng, idm viec tgi nUdc ngodi vd idm gidm sd lUdng lao dpng xud't khdu cua Viet Nam), Trong dd, dnh hudng td viec thu nhgp cua kieu bdo bi giam Id khd Idn, bdi Viet Nam cd lUdng kieu bdo ddng (khodng tren 3 trieu ngddi), tap trung nhieu d cdc nddc phdt trien vd cd thu nhgp binh qudn ddu ngddi cao nhd My (khodng 1,5 trieu ngUdi), Phdp (khoang 300.000 ngddi), Canada (200.000 ngddi), Oxtrdylia (250.000 ngddi)... Ben cgnh dd, Viet Nam cung id quo'c gia cd so iddng lao ddng xud't khdu idn (tren 500.000 ngddi) 6 nhieu qude gia vd vung Idnh thd nhd Ddi Loan, Hdn Qude, Malaixia, Nhdt Ban vd cdc nddc Trung Dong nhu cdc Tieu vddng qude A rdp thd'ng nhd't. Quota...
Theo cdc cdng ty chuyen tien qude te vd mpt sd ngdn hdng cd dich vu kieu hdi mgnh, den nhdng thdng gdn day, iddng kieu hdi chuyen ve khdng sut gidm nhieu so vdi ndm ngodi. Diem ddng iuu y id, trong khi Iddng kieu hdi chuyen qua mpt sd ngdn hdng gidm, thi kieu hdi chuyen qua cdc cdng ty ngodi ngdn hdng vdn cd xu hddng tdng. Vf du, idpng kieu hdi chuyen ve Viet Nam qua V\/estern Union van khd quan vd cd khd ndng vdpt so vdi chi tieu dda ra hdi ddu ndm.D
