Tac dong cua FDI den hieu qua cua hoqt dong ngan hdng tCf c a c each tiep can khac nhau
N G O K H A N H HUYEN
\ ghien cdu nay xac dinh tac dong cua FDI din hieu qua cua cac ngan hang dddi anh
• hudng cua each tiip can lua chgn diu ra, dau vao khac nhau. Vdi si liiu cua 28 ngan hang trong thdi gian tdnaw 2008-2012, nghien cdu da sd dung tiep can phan tich bao dd lieu (DEA) cUng vdi each tiep can san xuit va each tiep can tai san trong viec lUa chgn diu ra va dau vao de udc lugng hieu qua cua cac ngan hang.
Tfl khda: tiip can DEA, hieu qua, tiep can san xuit, tiep can tai san.
1. D a t v a n d e
Sti phat trien gan day tren cae thi trUdng tai chinh nhfl chflng khoan hda, qud'e td' hda, mci rong tin dung, s\i ba't d'n tai chinh va t^m quan trong ndi ehung dang tang ldn cua cac dich vu tai chinh trong hoat dong kinh te b cac nUde phat trien va dang phat trie'n deu dat trong tam ngay cang ro ret vao cac hoat dgng ngan hang. Ho san xua't cai gi? Cd hieu qua khdng? Cac nha kinh td' da chi ra nhiJng khd khan dang kd trong dinh nghia va do lUdng cac khai niem dau r a va nang sua't ngan hang.
2, T o n g q u a n e a c h t i e p c a n lUa c h o n d a u r a v a p h U d n g p h a p Udc Iflgrng 2.1. Ve do ddu ra ngdn hdng 2.1.1. Cach tiep can tai san doi vdi dinh nghia dau ra ngan hang
Hau nhu ta't ea eac nha quan sat cho rang, nd (cac khoan phai tra) cua ngan hang cd mot sd' dae trUng eua dau vao (vi chung eung ea'p nguyen lieu eua cae vd'n ed the dau tU) va dac trflng eua dau ra (vi chung la nhflng sfl dung cudi eung cua eac vd'n tao ra phan chu ye'u cua doanh thu trflc tid'p ma eac ngan hang thu dfldc). Theo each tiep can tai san, cac ngan hang cha dfldc coi nhu eac ngan hang gifla nhflng ngfldi nSm gifl nd va nhflng ngudi n h a n vd'n cua ngan hang. Cae khoan eho vay va tai san khac dfldc coi la eac dau ra ngan hang; tien gCri va nd khac la eac dau vao dd'i vdi qua trinh trung gian nay (Sealey va
Lindley 1977). Dd'i vdi mdt so' ngan hang ldn ehu yd'u mua cac vd'n cua ho (cd tra iai) tfl cac ngan hang khac va nhflng ngUdi gfli tien ldn va bid'n eac voh nay t h a n h nhiing khoan cho vay, day la mot md ta thich hdp cua d i u ra ngan hang. Tuy nhidn, hfiu het cac ngan hang lam nhieu hdn la m u a vd'n cua ho - hg cung cung ca'p cac dich vu quan trong ddi vdi ngudi gfli tid'n, n h u n g cac dieh vu nay khdng dUdc tinh la dau r a trong each tid'p can tai san.
Mamalakis (1987) ed sU p h a n bidt hflu ich gifla dieh vu t r u n g gian ve vd'n va dich vu tid'n gfli eua cac ngan hang, trong dd each tid'p can tai san chi xem xdt dieh vu trung gian ve vd'n. Dich vu t r u n g gian bid'n doi nd trong bang can dd'i t h a n h tai san va chi tra va n h a n lai de bfl dap gia tri thdi gian cua vd'n dUdc sii dung cl k h a n a n g nay. Mae du mot so' ngan hang ldn cd khuynh hUdng chuydn mdn hda b chflc nang nay, h^u he't cae ngan h a n g t a n g mot ph^n chu yd'u vdn cua minh thdng qua tien gfli dfldc san xua't va cung ca'p eac dich vu t h a n h klioan, thanh toan va gifl an toan (cung n h u cac khoan chi tra lai sua't) cho nhflng ngudi gfli tid'n de thu dudc vd'n nay.
^ Dd'i vdi mot sd' muc dich, each tie'p can tai san la thich h ^ . Tuy nhidn, vdi each tie^ can tai san, neu ca eac khoan cho yay thuong mai lan cho vay gifla cac n g a n h a n g dude coi \k Ng6 Khanh Huy^n, ThS., Trucmg dai hoc Thang Lo
64 NghUn COU Knh te'srfZ^^wnJS^^^
Tdc dong cua FDI,
d^u ra, thi dau r a do dfldc se giam di do sti sat n h a p nay, bdi vi se khdng cdn vide cho vay gifla eac ngan h a n g nfla. Nd'u ehi cac khoan cho vay thfldng mai dflde coi la dau ra, thi ngan hang b a n vd'n khdng ed dau r a nao dfldc do, ba't cha'p vide san xua't eac dich vu tien gfli cua nd va thflc td' la ngan h a n g thfl hai coi trpng vd'n m u a vao.
2.1.2. Cach tiip can san xuit dinh nghia dau ra ngan hang
"Cach tid'p can s a n xuat" do sd' Ifldng cae tai khoan va giao dich t r d n m o t thdi ky dflde dua vao d a u t i e n bdi B e n s t o n (1965).
PhUdng p h a p n a y lam thda m a n mot so' va'n de cua each tie'p can t r u n g gian. Vi dti, nd loai trfl dfldc chech lam p h a t va la mdt khai niem rdng. Nd cflng cho p h e p so' Ifldng tai khoan va quy md t r u n g b i n h cua cac t a i khoan cd tdc dong k h a c n h a u ldn chi phi.
Nhung each tie'p can n a y bi thid'u mot phUdng p h a p d a n h t r o n g so' cua ddng gdp cua mdi dich vu vao td'ng d a u r a (dac bidt khi cd sU p h u t h u g c qua lai) va bd sdt n h i l u khoan muc q u a n t r g n g cua dich vu ngan h a n g . Nghien cflu sau dd bdi B e n s t o n va eae cgng sfl (1982) d a n h t r o n g sd' sd' lUdng tai k h o a n t r o n g moi linh vtjtc b o a t ddng, bdi ty le ddng gdp t r o n g tdng chi phi van h a n h sfl dting mdt chi sd' Divisia, vdi mdt kidm soat r i e n g re eho bdi vide dUa vao quy md t r u n g binh cua eac t a i k h o a n . PhUdng p h a p nay v i n d l hi phe p h a n v& sti bd qua chi p h i lai sua't, ca'u t h a n h mdt phan chu yd'u cua tdng chi phi efla n g a n hang. Su bd sdt dac bidt q u a n t r g n g ne'u cd mgt su danh dd'i ctia chi phi v a n h a n h cao hdn (vi dti: v a n h a n h n h i e u chi n h a n h ) chi phi lai sua't (do t h u a n tidn ve dia diem ldn hdn). Trong nhflng nghidn cflu g a n day, each tid'p can s a n xua't t h u d n g dUde sti dung bdi cac nghien cflu t a p t r u n g vao hidu qua tUdng dd'i cua cac chi n h a n h trong mdt n g a n h a n g cii t h e , chfl k h d n g phai gifla cae n g a n h a n g .
Theo Berg va cdng sfl (1989), Ifla chgn gifla cac each tid'p can nay c^n dfldc xem xdt
can than, vi nghien cflu cua hg ve thi trUdng ngan hang Na Uy nam 1985 phat hidn r a rang, so' Ifldng va xep hang eae ngan hang hieu qua khac n h a u dang ke phu thudc vao do do dau r a nao dUde sfl dting.
Nhflng khd k h a n khac (ma vide do chting khd k h a n hdn) bao gom; thflc te cac do do khac n h a u khdng xet dd'n nhflng md'i quan hd lien thdi gian ra't quan trong trong ngan hang, vi vay thay vi ehi la mot chi tidu an cua dieh vu cung ca'p, lai sua't cd thd chi bdo mot d i u t u eua ngan h a n g dd trong mdt mdi quan he dai ban; cd the cd nhflng chech ddi vdi cac do do dau r a khi canh t r a n h tang; cae do do dau ra khdng xet dd'n tam quan trgng cua sU theo doi, ma cac each tid'p can coi la t r u n g tam ddi vdi ngan hang (Diamond, 1984); eac do do tU n h a n va xa hdi eua dau r a cd the khac n h a u do cac ngoai flng.
2.2. Tong quan cdc phuang phdp Udc lUOng cho nghien eUlu ngdn hdng Ra't nhieu cae nghien cflu trudc day thUe hidn dd'i vdi cac d i u vao va d i u r a trong ngan h a n g da sfl dung hai ky t h u a t de Ude lUdng la tid'p can phi t h a m sd' va tid'p can cd t h a m so'. Cac phfldng phap tid'p can dd dfldc p h a n t h a n h 5 nhdm khac nhau. (i) P h a n tich bao dfl lieu (DEA), la ky t h u a t quy hoach tuye'n tinh phi t h a m sd' ma gia dinh r a n g khdng cd nhieu n g l u nhidn. Nd dUdc sfl dung de tinh hidu qua ky thuat, hidu qua quy md va hieu qua chi phi. Cac doanh nghidp hidu qua la cae doanh nghidp cd dugc so' Ifldng dau r a nhieu hdn (hoac it nha't cung bang) mdi dau r a (vdi mot dau vao cho trfldc) so vdi cac doanh nghiep khac (Rangan va cdng sfl, 1988; Elysiani va Mehdian, 1990; Berg va cgng sfl, 1993; Bukh, 1994;
Schaffnit va cdng sfl, 1997; Taylor va cgng sfl, 1997). (ii) Md hinh FDH la mgt bie'n thd' ctia md hinh DEA, ma cd thd dflde coi la mot sfl khai quat ctia p h a n tich bao dfl lieu - md hinh nay khdng yeu cau bidn loi (Tulkens, 1993; Tulkens va Malnero, 1994). (iii) Tiep can bien n g l u nhien (SFA) la mdt phUdng p h a p ma gia dinh r k n g sai so' gom hai t h a n h
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Tdc dong cua FDI,
phan: mgt la, do q u a n sat; hai la, do phi hieu qua. Trong tie'p can nay, phi hidu qua dfldc gia dinh la theo phdn phd'i phi dd'i xflng, thUdng la b a n chuan, trong khi dd nhidu ngau nhien dUdc gia dinh la tuan theo mdt phan phd'i dd'i xflng c h u a n (Ferrier va Lovell, 1990; Chafai, 1997; K u m b h a k a r va cdng sU, 1998). (iv) Tid'p can bien day (TEA) da dUdc Berger va Humprey (1991) p h a t trien de so sanh hidu qua t r u n g binh cua eac nhdm eac doanh nghiep t h a y vi udc tinh lugng bidn (Bauer va cgng sU, 1993;
DeYoung, 1994; Lang va Welzel, 1996;
Clark, 1996). (v) Tid'p can p h a n phd'i til do (DEA) sfl dting p h i n dfl t r u n g binh cua h a m chi phi dfldc udc lUdng vdi dfl lieu mang de xay dung mgt thudc do hieu qua bien chi phi. Nd khdng ap dat mgt hinh dang nha't dinh len phan phdi cua hieu qua, nhUng gia dinh rang ed hidu qua n h a n hoae hidu qua t r u n g binh cho mdi doanh nghidp tren toan thdi gian. Berger (1993), Berger va Humphrey (1992b), DeYoung (1997) da eho vi du phan tieh ve eae tae ddng eua vide sap nhap trong nen cdng nghiep ngan hang.
Mdt so' nghien cflu da so sanh cac ky t h u a t udc lUdng khac n h a u . Hjalmarsson va cdng sfl (1996) da so sanh DEA, DEA va SEA va da phat hien r a rfing, cac Ude lUdng hidu qua dao dgng qua cac md hinh. Resti (1997) da phat hidn r a rang cac kd't qua gay t r a n h eai va da ket luan r&ng ky t h u a t quy hoaeh tuyd'n tinh va ky t h u a t kinh td' lUdng khdng khac biet nhieu khi dfldc dUa tren cung
K
G'=[(x\y'):y'„<2:z',y'_,
d a lieu va khu6n kho y tudng. Berger va Mester (1997) da so s a n h DFA, SFA, va cac dang h a m Fmu-ier-Flexible vdi dang h a m loga sieu viSt. Ho da p h a t hien r a rang eac lUa chon lien q u a n den t m h toan hiSu qua thudng r a t It khac hiSt ve t h u a t ngO v l hieu qua cong nghiep t r u n g hinh hoac xep h a n g cac doanh nghiep ddn, dieu dd goi y rkng hieu qua Udc lUdng dUdc la m a n h doi vdi cac phUdng phap khac n h a u (Bauer va cong sU, 1998).
0 Viet Nam, cd mot so'nghien cUu ve ngan hang nhu: N g u y i n V. H. (2008) da sii dung cac mo hinh DEA de Udc lUdng t a n g trudng n a n g sua't va hieu qua ciia cac ngan hang thUdng mai Viet Nam; Nguyen K. M, Giang T. L va N g u y i n V. H (2013) da sii dung md hinh sieu hieu qua de xep h a n g hidu qua cua cac ngan h a n g thUdng mai cua Viet Nam;
Nguyin K. Minh, P h a m V. K va P h a m A. T.
(2012) da cai bien t h u ^ t toan cua Tone de Udc lUdng sieu hieu qua cua ngan h a n g so vdi t h u a t toan 2 giai doan cua Tone.
3. C h i d i n h m o h i n h
3.1. Chi dinh mo hinh udc lucmg TFP cua he thong ngdn hang
Gia sii r a n g cd k = 1, ,.,, K ngan hang, m = 1 M d l u r a y j . ^ s i dung n = 1 N dau vao x,; „ tai m i i thdi ky t = 1, ..., T. Vdi each tiep can DEA, cdng nghe t h a m chieu vdi hieu qua khdng ddi theo quy md tai mdi thdi ky t tvl so' lieu cd the dinh nghia la:
m=l,...,M,
izicxi,„<x:,
k = l
n = l,...,N, k=l,...jq.
(1)
6 day, z chi trong so' tren mdi quan sat ngang cho toan bo he thd'ng ngan hang. Cd
the ndi long gia thiet hieu qua khong dd'i theo quy md bang each them rang buoc sau-
66 NghUn aiu Knh ISsS7(434) ^ T l S j ^ J J ^
Tdc dong cua FDI...
±Z[=\, (VRS) (2)
k = l
De xdy dung chi so' nang s u a t Malmquist eua tinh k' gifla t va t+1, d day sfl dung each tid'p can DEA de tinh toan 4 h a m khoang each sau: D ; , ( x ' , y ' ) , D S + ' ( x ' , y ' ) ,
D U x ' * ' , y ' * ' ) . v a D ' o - ' ( x - ^ ' , y ' * ' ) . Cae bam khoang each nay la nhflng nghich dao cfla do do hidu qua ky t h u a t cua Farrel. Cae md hinh quy hoach phi t h a m so' tinh toan do do Earrell (1957) dila t r e n dau ra cua hidu q u a cdng nghd dd'i vdi mdi t i n h k' = 1, ...,K, cd the dUde dinh nghia la:
P o ( 4 ' y k ) r ="1^'^^'' (3)
vdi eac r a n g bugc
K
2 zX.«^<« ;«=! ^ (4)
f^Z[=l (VRS)
Z[>0 •,k=l,...,K Tinh toan p y • ' ( x ' " ^ ^ y ^ " ^ ' ) J tUdngtflvdi
(11), trong dd t+1 thay cho t. Ta cflng t i n h toan eac ham khoan each DQ(X'^ ,y'i^ ) (5) va D'^'iK.y',) (6).
De do nhflng thay doi trong hieu qua quy md, nhflng h a m khoang each d a u r a nghich dao vdi edng nghe he so' hoan vd'n bien ddi theo quy md cung dUdc tinh toan. Thay ddi cdng nghd (TECHCH) dUdc t i n h toan tUdng flng vdi edng nghd he sd' hoan vd'n khdng ddi theo quy md. Thay dd'i hidu qua quy md (SCH) trong mdi thdi ky dUdc xay dflng nhfl mdt ty so' cua ham khoang each thoa m a n hd so' hoan vd'n khdng doi theo quy md t r e n h a m khoang each dUdi cdng nghd he so' h o a n von
bid'n dd'i theo quy md, trong khi thay dd'i hidu qua t h u a n tuy (PEEECH) dUdc dinh nghia la ty sd' eua h a m khoang each thdi k j trong mdi thdi ky dUdi cdng nghd he so' hoan vd'n bid'n ddi theo quy md. Vdi hai ham khoang each nay dd'i vdi cdng nghd he so' hoan vdn thay ddi theo quy md, p h a n r a trcl thanh:
Mo(x'^',y'*', x\ y") = T(x''\ y'* y') TECHCH x E E F C H = T E C H C H x PEEECH x SCH (7)
0 day, EECH ky hidu thay ddi hieu dUdi cdng nghd he sd'hoan von khdng doi theo quy md.
3.2. So sdnh hieu qud ngdn hdng td viec lUa chon ddu ra., ddu vdo khdc nhau tren cd sd mo hinh DEA vd tdc dong cda FDI den hieu qud ndy
3.2.1. Mo hinh ifdcIUdnghiSu qua De so sanh hidu qua cua cac ngdn hang khi Ifla chgn eac dau vao va dau ra khac nhau, chung tdi sfl dung md hinh BCC de flde lUdng. Md hinh BCC sd dUde ap dung eho cung tap sd' lieu cua 28 ngan hang thUdng mai trong khoang thdi gian tfl n a m 2008 dd'n n a m 2012 nhflng vdi Ifla chgn d i u ra - dau vao theo each tiep can san xuat va each tie'p can tai san. Nhfl vay, ve caii true md hinh thi khdng cd gi t h a y ddi, nhUng cae d i u ra, dau vao la khac n h a u dd'i vdi mdi each tie'p e^n.
3.2.2. Mo hinh danh gia tac dgng Vi muc tieu nghidn cflu nay la danh gia tac ddng cua FDI va cac n h a n to* thudc ve dae trflng eua cac ngan h a n g de'n hidu qua eua nd, cd hai cau hoi dat r a cho nghidn cflu:
Ciu hoi thd nhit md h i n h dugc xae dinh n h u the' nao? Cau t r a ldi la md h i n h de d a n h gia tac ddng cua cac n h a n to' tdi hidu qua la md h i n h Tobit vi bid'n hieu qua (bie'n p h u thude) hi chan bcli 0 va 1. Cae bid'n doc lap bieu t h i dac trUng eua doanh nghidp gom cd:
(i) Bid'n bid'u t h i cong nghd, cu th^ cd th^
la'y mflc t r a n g hi vdn t r e n lao dgng.
(ii) Bid'n bieu thi quy md cua ngan hang, bid'n quy md cd t h e lay so" lao dong hoac tai
NghUn aiu Knh lSs67(494) - Thing 7/2019
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Tdc dgng cua FDI ...
san, them vao dd can cd quy md binh phUdng de xet quy md td'i flu cho ngan hang trong hoan canh cu the.
(iii) Bie'n bieu thi hidu qua hoat ddng cua ngan hang.
(iv) EDI thflc hien can phai dfldc dUa vao md hinh.
Cau hoi thd hai: lam thd' nao de FDI cd the tae dgng ddn hidu qua cua cac ngan hang, Ueu dfla FDI va md hinh cd y nghia khdng? Cau hdi nay cd the giai thich nhfl sau:
Trong luong EDI vao trong nfldc thi ed mdt bd phan la FDI vao trong linh vflc ngan hang. Mac dii da ed nhieu nghien cflu ve eac kenh lan tda eua FDI trong cae nganh san xua't va dich vii, nhflng ehfla cd nghien cflu nao giai thich mdt each day du vai trd cua EDI dd'i vdi hieu qua eua cac ngan hang.
Nganh ngan hang ed dac thfl khae vi eac d i u vao va dau ra cua nganh nay khdng gid'ng vdi cae nganh khac, vi thd' khdng the ban de'n eac lan tda ngUdc va xudi. Vi vay, nghien eflu nay chi ban ddn laii tda ngang va ed the cd anh hfldng hfldng eua tao eau.
Nhflng lan tda ngang di tfl cae ngan hang nfldc ngoai sang mgt mdt ngan hang o nflde tid'p nhan trong cung nganh ngan hang.
David J. T. (1977) gdi y hai kenh ehinh dd'i vdi eac lan tda ngang: sti di ehuyen cfla can bd tai chinh dUdc dao tao bdi cac ngan hang nUde ngoai (Andrea va cac cgng sti, 2001;
Gorg va edng sU, 2005) va sU bat chude (ap dung) cdng nghd cua cac cdng ty tai chinh nfldc ngoai (tac dgng t r i n h dien).
Mat khac, khi eac doanh nghiep FDI d cac nganh khac vao thi se tao r a c i u ve vd'n tfl cac doanh nghiep EDI nay. Sti kich cau ve vd'n se khuye'n khich cac nha cung ca'p dia phfldng (cac ngan hang dia phUdng) dau tU va san xua't cac dau vao theo eae tidu chu^n eha't Ifldng cao hdn (Blomstrom va cgng sfl, 1998). Vide nay khdng ehi ed tac dong dfldng len nang sua't cua cae ngan hang trtic tid'p lidn he vdi cac doanh nghiep FDI, ma cdn ed
anh hudng de'n cac ngdn hang khae trong nganh.
4. ThUc n g h i e m 4.1. So lieu
Nghidn cflu nay sfl dting so' lieu thu thap tfl bao cao thudng nien cua 28 ngan h a n g va gom cac chi tidu sau: tong tien gvti, chflng khoan, t h u n h a p tfl boat ddng, tai san cd' dinh, tien gfli, chi tidu boat ddng. Trong do chiing khoan bao gdm: chflng khoan dau tfl s i n sang de b a n + chflng khoan d i u tfl gifl de'n ngay dao b a n - dfl phdng giam gia chflng khoan d i u tU.
4.2. Cdc lUa chon dau vdo vd ddu ra Vdi so' lidu nhfl trdn, nghidn cflu nay sfl dung 2 each tie'p can de Ifla chon d i u vao va d i u ra.
Cach tiip can tai sin:
Dau ra: Yi: td'ng tien cho vay; Ya: chflng khoan; Y3: t h u n h a p tfl hoat ddng.
Dau vao: Xr:tai san cd' dinh; X2: td'ng t i l n gfli; X3: chi tidu hoat ddng.
Cach tiep can sin xuit:
Dau ra: Yj: td'ng tien eho vay; Ya: chflng khoan; Y3: t h u n h a p tfl hoat dgng va Y*: chi tidu boat ddng.
D i u vao: Xr:tai san cd' dinh; X2: td'ng tien g^i.
4.3. Mo hinh ddnh gid tdc dong Dinh nghia mot so bid'n cho md hinh Tobit:
Biin phu thugc: hqts, hqsx: hieu qua ky t h u a t Udc lUdng tfl md hinh BCC theo each tid'p can tai san va each tid'p can san xuat tUdng iJtng.
Biin doc lap: (i) bid'n dai didn cho trang hi vd'n trdn lao dgng (kl) dUde la'y xa'p xi bang tai san rdng trdn ehi tidu cho ca nhan; (ii) quy md (size) dUde lay xa'p xi bang tai san rdng; (iii) quy md binh phfldng (size^ dUde dua vao md hinh d^ x6t: Heu hidn trang thi trudng nhU hidn nay thi quy md tai san mdt ngan hang the nao la tdi Uu; (iv) hieu sua't tign gfli (J^^(J(.
la'y xa'p xi bang (tong Icfi tflc nhan dUdc + nhflng t h u n h a p khac) / tdng tien gfli.
68 Nghi§n cOu Kmh les6 7(494f^rt^^
Tdc ddng cua FDI...
5. K e t q u a Udc luCdng
5.1. So sdnh Udc lUdng TFP cua he thong ngdn hdng tU cdc cdch tiep can lUa chon ddu ra vd ddu vdo khdc nhau Fare va cdng sil (1994) da chi r a rang, ham khoang each tfldng dfldng vdi nghich dao ctia do do Earrell ve hidu qua d i u ra.
BANG 1: C a c c h i s o t h a y d o i h i e u q u a d u d i d i l u k i e n h e s o h o a n v o n k h o n g d o i
Chung tdi sfl dung chi so' nay, dfldc dinh nghia la nghich dao efla (2), de do hidu qua edng nghd trong nganh ngan hang trong thdi ky 2008-2012. Cac chi sd'hidu qua ky thuat dfldi dieu kien he sd* hoan von khdng doi theo quy md cua 28 ngdn h a n g tfl nam 2008 dd'n n a m 2012 dfldc trinh bay trong bang 1.
k y t h u a t , t i e n b o c o n g n g h e v a n a n g s u a t t h e o q u y m o t h e o c a c n g a n h a n g , 2008-2012
Nam
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 Mean
D i u
ef&h 1,27 1,03 0,96 0,98 1,05
ra, d i u \ ^ dUdc chon theo cich ti£p cin s ^ xudt techch
0,76 0,98 0,8 0,95 0,87
pech 1,108 1,005 0,959 1,02 1,021
sech 1,147 1,022 1,004 0,963 1,032
tfi)ch 0,969 1,003 0,774 0,929 0,914
D&i ra, ddu ^ o d u ^ chon theo cdch ti£p cdn Ud san effch
1.055 0,985 0,962 1,027 1,006
techch 0,821 0.784 0,851 0,974 0,854
pech 1,034 0,973 0,991 1,025 1,006
sech 1,02 1,01 0,97 1 1
t ^ h 0,866 0,772 0,818 1 0,86 Ngudn .Tac gia udc luong.
Trong nghien eflu nay, chung tdi p h a n r a chi so' nang sua't Malmquist t h a n h chi so' thay ddi ky t h u a t (techch) va chi sd' t h a y ddi hidu qua (effch). De n h a n didn t h a y ddi trong hieu qua quy md, effh dUdc p h a n r a tid'p thanh peeh va sech. De' t h u dflde cac chi so' nang sua't Malmquist va eac ehi sd' khac ddi vdi moi ngan hang va m6i cap n a m , chung tdi svL dung each tiep can DEA de tinh cac h a m khoang each d i u r a bang viec giai cac bai toan quy hoach tuyd'n t i n h phi t h a m so'.
Trong bai vid't nay chi t r i n h bay nhflng t h a y ddi hang nam t r u n g binh cua cac chi so nang sua't Malmquist va cac t h a n h p h i n cua nd ddi vdi mdi tinh thdi ky 2008-2012 trong bang 1. Ba't ky sU cai thidn nao trong nang sua't cttng keo theo r a n g gia tri cua ehi so' Malmquist ldn hdn 1. D^ so sanh, nghidn cflu nay tinh chi so' Malmquist dUa t r e n cac md hinh vdi each tid'p can Ifla chgn d i u ra, d i u vao khac nhau.
Kd't qua Ude lUdng b b a n g 1 cho tha'y: ca hai each tie'p can chgn d i u vao va d a u r a deu cho tha'y t a n g trUcing n a n g sua't eua
hd thd'ng n g d n h a n g t r o n g thdi ky 2008- 2012 giam. T a n g t r u d n g n a n g sua't cua he thd'ng n g a n h a n g t r o n g thdi ky n g h i e n eflu Ude lUdng cflng md h i n h nhUng lUa chgn d i u vao va d a u r a b a n g each tie'p can s a n xua't va tid'p can t a i s a n tUdng flng la 0,914 va 0,86. T h a y dd'i hidu qua cua he thd'ng n g a n h a n g fldc Ifldng tfl md h i n h nhflng Ifla chgn d a u vao va d a u r a b a n g each tid'p can s a n xua't va each tid'p can t a i s a n tfldng flng l a 1,054 va 1,006. Tuy nhidn, cd nhflng k h a c bidt ve do ldn va ke't q u a fldc Ifldng t h e o tflng n a m . Vi du, ke't q u a fldc Ifldng t h a y dd'i T F P t r o n g md h i n h vdi Ifla chon d i u vao va d i u r a b a n g each tid'p CEtn s a n xua't t h i n a m 2009-2010 la cao nha't, t r o n g k h i dd t h a y ddi TEP t r o n g md h i n h vdi Ifla chgn d i u vao va d i u r a b a n g each t i e p can t a i s a n t h i n a m 2011-2012 la cao nha't.
5.2. So sdnh diem hieu qud udc lUdng duac eua he thong ngan hdng tii cdc cdch tiep can lUa chgn ddu ra vd ddu vdo khdc nhau
Nghiin cOu Kmh tif sif 7(494) - Thing 7/2019 6 9
Tdc ddng cua FDI..,
Ket qua Udc lUdng hieu qua t r u n g binh qua cac nam eua ca 28 ngan h a n g tfl 2 each tidp can khong khac n h a u nhieu. Diem hieu qua trung binh theo n a m tfl n a m 2008 den nam 2012 cua cac ngan hang fldc Ifldng tfl md hinh BCC vdi each tiep can tai san va each tid'p can san xuat dd Ifla chgn d i u ra, d i u vao tfldng flng la 0,875; 0,933; 0,960; 0,942; 0,959
va 0,810; 0,865; 0,836; 0,834; 0,937. Nhin chung, d i l m hieu qua Udc lUdng dfldc theo each chgn d i u ra, d i u vao bang each tid'p can tai san cao hdn diem hidu qua flde lUdng dUdc theo each chgn d i u ra, dau vao bang each tie'p can san xua't. Nhsin xdt nay cung dflng khi ndi v^ cae quan sat cd hidu qua nhd nha't t r u n g binh eho mdi nam.
BANG 2: P h a n b o h i e u q u a c u a c a c n g a n h a n g tU h a i e a c h t i e p c a n lUa c h o n d a u r a , d a u v a o n a m 2008
Khoang hieu qud [0,2.0,4) [0.4, 0,6) [0.6,0,8) [0,8, 1) [1,1,2)
All
Cdch tl^p cdn tdi sdn (A) Tiungbinh
0,495 0,689 0,882 1,000 0,875
D6 lech cbaia
NA 0,064 0,044 0,000 0,152
Quan sdt
1 7 7 13 28
Cdch Tningblnfa
0.309 0,514 0,690 0,852 1.000 0,810
t i ^ cdn sdn xudt (S) DA lech chudn
0.083 0,068 0,012 0,056 0,000 0,230
Quan sdt 2 4 4 5 13 28 NguSn:Ta.c gia tide lircmg.
Bang 2 trinh bay phdn phd'i hidu qua cfla nam 2008 eua eac diem hidu qua cua cac ngan hang Udc Ifldng dfldc theo hai each tid'p can. Kd't qua S bang 2 eho t a tha'y, phan phd'i hidu qua eung phan anh dung nhflng n h a n xet tfl thdng kd md t a cac diem hieu qua. Kd't qua fldc Ifldng dfldc theo h a i each tid'p can cho thay khdng cd ngan hang nao cd didm hieu qua trong khoang tfl 0 dd'n 0,2, nhflng diem hieu qua tfl 0,2 dd'n 0,4 thi chi cd 2 ngan
hang khi fldc Ifldng md hinh trong do sfl dting each tiep can san xua't de Ifla ehgn dau ra, dau vao. Mgt dieu dang chu y la nhflng ngan hang hidu qua nha't Udc lUdng dUdc theo ea hai each tid'p can deu cho cflng so' ngan hang hidu qua nha't (13 n g a n hang).
Tuy nhidn de xem xet sU khae n h a u eua cae diem hidu qua cua eac ngan hang fldc Ifldng dUde theo hai cdch tiep can, can sxL dung he sd tfldng quan de xem xet.
B.ANG 3: Tfldng q u a n c a p c u a die'm h i e u q u a udfc lUtfng c u n g m o h i n h tit 2 e a c h t i e p c a n lUa c h o n d a u r a v a d a u v a o k h a c n h a u
Vcli cdch tie'p can san
xudt dl lua chpn dSu ra va ddu vao
(S)
DiftnhiCu qud n6c luong tilmO hinh viSi cdch t i ^ cdn Sii sSndS lua chon ddu i a \ ^ ddu \ * j (A)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 0,8122
2009
0,8216 2010
0.6382 2011
0,3796 2012
0,4245 NgaSn:Tic gia u6c luong.
Bang 3 cho tha'y cac chuoi hieu qua udc luong dUdc tijf viec lua chon dau vao va dau
r a dtia t r e n cac each tie'p can san xufft va each tiep cftn tai san tuang quan cdng chilu
70 NghiSn aiu Kmh lasS7(494) ^ri^7r~
Tdc ddng cua FDI
Dac bidt cac n a m 2008, 2009 va 2010 he so 2011 va 2012 nhd hdn r a t nhieu.
tfldng quan cao, dd la 0,81, 0,82 va 0,64 5.3. FDI vd cdc nhdn to tdc dpng din tudng flng, n h u n g he sd tfldng q u a n vao n a m hieu qud cua cdc ngdn hdng
BANG 4: Ket q u a Udc lUofng m o h i n h T o b i t x a c d i n h c a c n h a n t o t a c d o n g d e n h i e u q u a Hes«
Hqts c
KL SIZE S1ZB2
ROF FDI R' R' S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Akaike info criterion
B i ^ phu thu6c hqts Coefficient
0,6830»*»
(0,0891) 0,0030***
(0,0007) -5.33E-07***
(1.72E-07) 3,53E-13***
(1,30E-13) 0,0057***
(0,0018) l,47E-06***
(5,59E-07) 0,2733 0,2406 0,0929 1,1483 -16,201 0,3314
B i ^ phu thuOc hqsx Coefficient
0,8604***
(0,0985) 0,0048***
(0,0009) -3,15E-07*
(l,68E-07) 2,02E-13**
(8,60E-14) -0,0034*
(0,0021) l,73E-06**
(7,91E-07) 0,3592 0,3303 0,1578 3,3114 -43,5878 -0,3113 Ngu6n:Tic gia il6c lUdng.
Kgt qua fldc Ifldng tfl h a i md hinh Tobit (md hinh vdi high phu thugc la hidu qua fldc Ifldng bang md hinh BCC vdi d i u r a va d i u vao dUdc chgn tfl each tiep can tai san; md hinh vdi bie'n phu thugc la hidu qua fldc Ifldng bang md hinh BCC vdi d i u r a va d i u vao dUdc chgn tfl each tie'p can san x u i t ) cho ta nhan xdt: dS^u cua cac he so' cua cac bie'n KL, size size2 va FDI do'i vdi cac n h a n to' tac ddng dd'n hidu qua trong ca 2 md hinh la dong nha't.
Duy nha't mgt trfldng hdp la da'u cua bien ROF la dUdng va cd-y nghia thd'ng ke cl mflc 1% b md hinh vdi bien phu thuoc la hqts, cdn trong mo hinh kia thi ed da'u a m nhflng khdng cd y nghia thong kd 3 mflc 5%. Nhfl vay, ve
m|it y nghia, cd th^ xem ca hai each tid'p can Itla chgn d i u ra, d i u vao cho kd't qua tUdng tti nhau. Bid'n dai didn cho mflc trang hi voh trdn lao dgng b ea hai md hinh deu ed dau dUdng va ed y nghia thong kd ct mflc 1%, nghia la mflc trang bi vd'n trdn lao ddng eang tot thi hidu qua ngan hang cang cao. Da'u cua bid'n size va size2 cd d i u am va da'u dfldng tfldng flng trong ca hai md hinh, nghia la ed the tim dfldc quy md toi thieu ma mgt ngan hang muSn ton tai dat hidu qua c i n cd. Dilu dac biet hdn la da'u cua bien EDI trong ea hai md hinh deu mang da'u dfldng va ed ^ nghia thd'ng kd b mfle 1%, nghia la luong vd'n FDI ed tac ddng dd'n hidu qua cua cac ngan hang.
N^iin cilu Knh lSs67(494) • TTiing 7/2019 7 1
Tac dong cua FDI
6. K e t l u a n
Nghien cflu n a y xem xet t a c ddng cua EDI dd'n hidu qua cua eae n g a n h a n g thUdng mai Viet N a m trong thdi ky 2008-2012, sfl dung h a i each tidp can lUa chon d a u r a va d i u vao dd Udc lUdng n a n g sua't va hidu qua. K^t qua Udc lUdng TEP cua h e thd'ng n g a n h a n g trong thdi ky nghien cflu cho tha'y t a n g trudng TEP Ude lUdng dUdc tfl md h i n h n h u n g Itla ehgn d i u vao va dau r a b a n g caeh tid'p can s a n xua't cao hdn so vdi t a n g trufing TEP khi Udc lUdng cflng md h i n h nhflng d a u r a dfldc chgn b a n g each tid'p can tai san. Thay ddi hidu qua cua he thd'ng n g a n h a n g Ude lUdng tfl md h i n h vdi Ifla chgn d i u vao va dau ra bang each tid'p can s a n xua't eao hdn so vdi thay ddi hidu qua flde lUdng tfl vide lUa chgn d i u ra d i u vao bang each tid'p can tai san.
Kd't qua Udc lUdng md h i n h d a n h gia tae dgng eua cac n h a n to' den hieu qua tfl md h i n h Tobit vdi vide lUa ebon d i u ra va dau vao tfl each tiep can t a i s a n va tfl each tid'p can san x u a t cho tha'y: da'u cua cac he so' ctia eac bid'n ddc lap la dong nha't, trfl bid'n ROE la ed da'u va mflc y nghia dfleing va cd y nghia thd'ng ke d mfle 1% cl md h i n h vdi bie'n p h u thugc la hqt thd'ng ke khdng dong nha't. D i l u dae bidt hdn la da'u cua bie'n FDI trong ea h a i md h i n h deu m a n g da'u dfldng va cd y nghia thd'ng kd b mflc 1%, nghia la luong vo'n FDI cd tac ddng dd'n hidu q u a eua cac ngan h a n g trong ea 2 md hinh. Kd't qua Udc Ifldng chflng td tae ddng tao c i u cua FDI dd'i vdi he thd'ng n g a n h a n g la trgi t r o n g thdi ky nghidn cflu./.
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NgSy nhan bai: 13-03-2019 Ngiy nhan ban stfa: 14-05-2019 Ngay duyfit dang: 20-05-2019
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