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CHINH SACH TAI KHOA VA CHINH SACH TIEN TE
TRONG QUAN LY TONG CAU HU'DNG DEN ON D|NH KINH TE Vl MO
GS.TS Tran Tho Dat Dgi hpc Kinh ti Quoc ddn Emai: [email protected]
Ddc trung noi bgl cua kinh te hpc Keynes Id cdch tiip can phdn tich vTmo, tiec la nghien cuu khuynh hiedng biin dpng vd moi quan hi ciia cdc bien so long luang trong nin kinh ti.
Keynes dua ra khdi niem cdu "hihi hiiu " va cho rdng chinh biin so nciy Id nhdn td quyit dinh mirc sdn luang vd viic ldm trong nin kinh ti. Chi mpt nam sau "Ly thuyit long qudt"
duac cong bo, vdo ndm 1937, Hick ddphdt triin mpt mo hinh (mo hinh IS-LM) md ngdy nay trd thdnh mpt npi dung kinh diin trong hdu hit cdc sdch gido khoa vi kinh ti nhdm ddnh gid tdc dpng cua cdc chinh sdch tdi khoa vd tiin ti din ddu tu, tiit kiim, sdn luang, viic ldm vd muc gid chung trong nin kinh ti thong qua su thay doi cua "diim cdn bdng Keynes '. Tu tudng kinh ti hpc Keynes vi "qudn ly tdng cdu " duac coi la nin Idng cho cdc gidi phdp citu cdnh cua Chinh phu cdc nudc di dua nin kinh ti vupt qua khung hodng. Bdi viet ndy phdn tich tdc dpng cua chinh sdch ldi khoa vd tiin ti din long cdu vd dua ra mpt sd khuyin nghi vi cdc chinh sdch ndy trong viic tdc dpng lpi cdc yiu to cdu thdnh long cdu a nudc ta nhdm hudng din on dinh kinh ti vi mo.
Tir khoa: chinh sach tien te, chinh sach tai khda, quan ly tdng cau, kinh te hgc Kyenes, dn dinh kinh te vT md.
1. Chinh sach tai khoa va tien te trong quan ly tong cau
Chinh sach kinh te vT md cdn dugc ggi la chinh sach quan ly tdng cau vi nd tac ddng den mat cau cua nen kinh te. Hai chinh sach kinh te vT md quan trgng nhat la chinh sach tai khda va chinh sach tien te.
1.1. Chinh sdch tdi khda
Chinh sach tai khda la chinh sach thdng qua thue va chi tieu cdng de tac ddng tdi nen kinh tl. Muc tieu chu yeu cua chinh sach tai khda la lam giam quy md dao dgng cua mirc san lugng trong chu ky kinh te. Khung khd phan tich su can bing cua thj trudng hang hda va thj trudng tien te IS-LM cho thiy chinh sach tai khda phat huy tac dyng thdng qua su djch chuyen cua dudng IS. Cd the thay chinh sach tai khda phat huy tac dung hoan toan khi dudng IS cat dudng LM d doan nim ngang, va khdng phat huy nhieu tac dung khi dudng IS cat dudng LM d doan doc len. Dac biet, khi dudng IS cat dudng LM d doan tliang dung, chinh sach tai khda khdng hi cd tac dung doi vdi bien ddng cua san lugng. Trong nin kinh te md, hieu qua cua chinh sach tai khda phu thuoc vao che dp ty gia hdi doai. Neu la che do ty
gia hdi doai cd djnh, chinh sach tai khda se phat huy hieu qua. Cdn neu la che do ty gia hdi doai tha ndi, chinh sach tai khda se khdng cd hieu luc do nhirng thay ddi ty gia gay ra bdi chinh sach tai khda se triet tieu hieu qua ciia chinh sach nay.
Tuy nhien, nhieu nha kinh te cho rang chinh sach tai khda khdng phai la mdt loai than dugc ma nd chi thich hgp vdi tinh trang suy thoai tdn tai khi Keynes viet cudn "Ly thuyet tdng quat" vao nam 1936, va khdng thich hgp vdi cac nen kinh te lam phat. Vao cudi nhCrng nam 1970, khi nhieu nen kinh te tren the gidi rai vao tinh trang lam phat di kem suy thoai (tinh trang dinh lam- stagflation), chinh sach tai khda khdng cdn dugc ua chuong nhu trudc, va cac nha kinh te lai bit diu dat niem tin vao chinh sach tiln te trong viec dat dugc cac muc tieu kinh te vT mo. Can luu y ring, khi chinh sach tai khda ndi Idng dugc thuc hien bing each tang chi tieu chinh phu va dl cd ngudn tai chinh cho cac khoan chi tieu do, Chinh phu lai phat hanh cdng trai va trai phieu.
Robert Barro cho ring ngudi dan vdi ky vpng hgp ly, se hilu ring hdm nay Chinh phu di vay thi tuong lai Chinh phu se tang thul de cd tiln tra ng, nen se
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giam tieu dung va tang tiet kiem hdm nay dl tuong lai cd tiln nop thul [11]. Vi vay, tuy Chinh phii tang tieu diing cua minh, nhung lai lam giam tieu dCing ca nhan, nen hieu qua cua chinh sach tai khda se khdng cao nhu Chinh phu mong dgi.
Chinh sach tai khda cung gap phai nhilu rang budc ve chinh trj va cac rang bupc khae. 6 nhilu nudc, Chinh phu mudn gia tang chi tieu phai trinh Qudc hdi phe duyet, vi thi khdng phai cir muon thuc hien chinh sach tai khda ndi Idng thdng qua tang chi tieu chinh phu la ludn cd the thuc hien dugc. Hon nira, gia sir dugc Qudc hdi thdng qua thi cung da mat thai gian chd dgi Qudc hdi xem xet thao luan.
Sau do, de trien khai cdn phai tien hanh cac boat ddng nhu lap ke hoach du an, khao sat-thiet ke de trien khai dau tu. NhCrng viec nay cung mat khdng it thdi gian. Chinh vi vay, cd mdt do tre de chinh sach tai khda ndi Idng bat dau phat huy tac dung.
Mat khae, khi da tien hanh dau tu rdi, den giai doan can thuc hien chinh sach tai khda that chat, lai cung gap khd khan vi khdng the bd dd cac cdng trinh dau tu dang trien khai dugc.
Cuoi ciing, thuc hien chinh sach tai khda ndi Idng thdng qua giam thue thi de dang hon so vdi khi that chat, bdi vi khi mudn thuc hien chinh sach tai khda thit chat thdng qua tang thue lai rat de bj ngudi dan phan ddi.
1.2. Chinh sdch tien te
Chinh sach tiln te la qua trinh kiem soat lugng cung tiln cua nin kinh te de dat dugc nhCrng myc dich nhu kilm chi lam phat, on djnh ty gia hdi doai, hudng tdi toan dyng lao dgng hay tang trudng kinh tl. Chinh sach tiln te nhim vao hai myc tieu la lai suit va miic cung tien. Thdng thudng, khdng the thuc hien ddng thdi hai myc tieu nay. Neu nham muc tieu dieu tilt chu ky kinh te d tinh trang binh thirdng, thi myc tieu lai suit dugc lua chgn. Cdn khi kinh tl qua ndng hay kinh tl qua lanh, chinh sach tiln te se nhim vao myc tieu tryc tiep hon, dd la lugng cung tiln. D I dn djnh kinh te vT md, nguyen ly boat ddng chung cila chinh sach tiln te la thyc hien thdng qua cac cdng cu: thay ddi lai suat chiet khiu, thay ddi ty le du trCr bit bugc, va cac nghiep vy thj trudng md. Khung khd phan tich su can bang cua thj trudng hang hda va thj trudng tien te IS-LM cho thiy chinh sach tien te phat huy tac dyng thdng qua su djch chuyin ciia dudng LM. Ve nhung tranh luan lien quan den hieu qua ciia chinh sach tien te, cd mpt sd luu y sau:
Thie nhdt la chinh sach tien te cd the bj ban chese,
tham chi mit tac dung trong tru'dng hgp cd "biy thanh khoan". "Biy thanh khoan" xuit hien khi chinh sach tiln te dugc ndi Idng bing bien phap giam lai suit xuong thip qua mdt mirc nhat djnh khiln cho mgi ngudi quylt djnh giCi tai san cua minh dudi dang tiln mat va chinh sach tien te trd nen bit luc, va khi do viec dilu tilt chu ky kinh te chi cdn dya vao tac dung ciia chinh sach tai khda.
Cu thi la khi nin kinh tl rai vao suy thoai, Ngan hang Trung uong se ndi Idng chinh sach tien te bang viec giam lai suit de kich thich tieu diing va kich thich dau tu tu nhan, lam tang tdng cau. Tuy nhien, neu viec giam lai suat la lien tyc va xudng thap qua mirc thi theo thuyet "ua chuong thanh khoan", mgi.
ngudi se giCr tien mat chir khdng giri vao ngan hang hay mua chirng khoan. Hau qua la dau tu tu nhan khd cd the dugc gia tang, vi ngan hang khdng huy ddng dugc tien giri thi cung khdng the cho doanh nghiep vay. Ddng thdi, chung khoan khdng ban dugc thi doanh nghiep cung khdng huy ddng dugc vdn. Chinh sach tien te trd nen bat lyc trong viec thuc day dau tu tu nhan va do dd la bat luc trong kich thich tdng cau. Trong khi dd, chinh sach tai khda binh thudng khdng phat huy dugc hieu luc day du do hien tupng "Ian at" thi luc nay lai phat huy dugc nhieu hon do hien tugng "Ian at" khdng cdn vi lai suat thap. Kinh te hgc Keynes cho rang khi nen kinh te roi vao tinh trang nay thi chi cd each sir dung tich cyc chinh sach tai khda (giam thue, tang chi tieu cdng), tang xuat khau rdng, khuyen khich tu nhan diu tu de ddi mdi cdng nghe. Tuy nhien, cung cd quan diem cho rang chinh sach tien te trong tinh hudng nay khdng mat hoan toan hieu lyc ma van cd thi triln khai qua bien phap giam gia ddng tien trong nudc dl kich thich xuat khau rdng, thyc hien bien phap ndi Idng tien te qua tang true tiep lugng tien ca sd.
Thie hai la nhung tranh luan lien quan den che do ty gia hoi doai cd djnh. d mdt nen kinh te ap dyng chi do ty gia hdi doai cd djnh, chinh sach tien te se bj han chi sir dyng, bdi bat cur su thay ddi nao ciia cung tiln cung lam thay ddi ty gia hdi doai.
Thie ba la tinh hudng khi dau tu khdng phan irng vdi lai suit. Thdng thudng, khi chinh sach tien te lam thay ddi lai suat, qua dd thay ddi dau tu ciia doanh nghiep va dieu chinh dugc tdng cau. Tuy nhien, nlu diu tu khdng phan irng trudc thay ddi ciia lai suit, thi chinh sach tien te bj vd hieu hda.
Khi diu tu khdng phan ung vdi lai suat, dudng IS trd nen thing dung. Dii chinh sach tien te cd lam
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Hinh 1: T\ trpng cat thanh ti) trong tiiiiij cau ciia Vict Nam (GDP theo dau ra), 1995-2011
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
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1995
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2000 2001
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2002 2003
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djch chuyen dudng LM the nao di nira, tdng cau van khdng thay ddi.
Ngoai ba loai han che ndi tren, neu Ngan hang Trung uang khdng dugc boat ddng ddc lap, thi Chinh phu cd the can thiep vao viec phat hanh tien te (chang ban khi can bii dap tham hut ngan sach), khien cho hieu qua ciia chinh sach tien te trd nen han che.
Chinh sach quan ly tdng cau la su kiem soat tdng mirc cau trong nen kinh te bang each sir dyng chinh sach tai khda va tien te hoac cac chinh sach khae de giam bdt nhung dao ddng trong boat ddng kinh te.
Muc tieu chung eiia chinh sach quan ly tdng cau la can phdi hgp cac chinh sach tai khda va tien te lam cho tdng cau khdng bi thieu hyt so vdi san lugng tiem nang, qua dd tranh tinh trang tdn that san lugng, ddng thdi cung khdng tao ra san lugng qua cao dan den lam phat. Qua trinh thuc hien chinh sach cho thay cd the chinh sach dugc thuc hien mdt each liiy nghi hay thyc hien theo cac quy ldc xac djnh trudc. Chinh sach dugc thuc hien mdt each liiy nghi cho phep cac nha hoach djnh chinh sach phan irng nhanh chdng vdi nhirng tinh hudng mang tich chat cu sdc xay ra trong nen kinh te. Tuy nhien, chinh sach tity nghi de dan tdi hien tugng khdng nhat quan theo thdi gian. Chang ban, viec Chinh phii da tuyen bd kiem che lam phat bang chinh sach tien te that chat, nhung sau dd lai tang gia xang dau, va he qua cua chinh sach gia "da" chinh sach tien te nay se lam suy giam Idng tin vao chinh phii, dan tdi chinh sach ciia Chinh phii cd the se mat dan hieu luc. Chinh sach co quy tdc se giup thu dugc Idng tin do nd minh bach hon va de dy doan ban. Tuy nhien.
Nguon: Tong hpp tie GSO (2010, 2011) van de khd d day la lam the nao tinh toan dugc chinh xac khi xay dung cac quy tac ra chinh sach.
2. Tong quan ve tong cau Keynes d nuoc ta Tir ddng nhat thirc phan bd GDP theo cac ludng chi tieu (tdng ciu Keynes): GDP = C -i-1 + G H- NX, trong dd: (i) C la Tieu diing ciia cac hp gia dinh, (ii) I la Dau tu, (iii) G la Chi tieu chinh phii, va (iv) NX la Xuat khau rdng (xuat khau - nhap khau), phan sau day se Ian lugt danh gia timg thanh td trong tdng cau cua Viet Nam (phan tich GDP theo dau ra).
Hinh 1 md ta ddng thai cua cac thanh td nay theo ty le % trong GDP cua nudc ta giai doan 1995 - 2011.
Hinh 2 md ta ty trgng cac thanh td trong tdng cau (GDP theo dau ra) ciia mdt sd nudc trong khu vyc.
Tieu dung cua cdc hp gia dinh
Theo Bang 1, ty le tieu diing d nudc ta thuoc nhdm cao nhat trong khu vyc, chiem 66,5% GDP nam 2010, thap hon so vdi Lao, Philippine va Cam- puchia, nhung cao hon nhieu so vdi Trung Qudc (34,9%) va Singapore (36,9%). Cd thi thiy ty le tieu dung cua Viet Nam tuong ddi dn djnh trong 10 nam qua (nam 2000: 66,4%, nam 2010: 66,5%).
Tuy nhien, ciing vdi mirc sdng ciia ngudi dan ngay cang dugc nang cao va viec Viet Nam da gia nhap nhdm nudc cd mure thu nhap trung binh, ty le tieu diing cua nudc ta du kien se giam dan trong thdi gian tdi.
Ty le tich luy tdi sdn (ddu tu)
Trong hai thap ky gan day, cd the thay rd dau tu phat trien xa hdi cua Viet Nam da tang ca ve quy md va tdc dp tang trudng. Tinh theo gia so sanh, tdng von diu tu tang binh quan 10,9%/nam qua 15 nam
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Hinh 2: Ty trong ciic thanh td trong tdng cau (GDP theo dau ra) tiia mot so nuoc trong khu \uc niim 2010
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Bang 1: So sanh co' cau sir dung GDP ciia cac nuoc Dong A va Dong Nam A, 2000-2010 Dan vi: %
Lao Campuchia Viet Nam Philippines Trung Quoc Han Quoc ThSi Lan Indonesia Singapore Malaysia
Tich luy von 2000 28.3 17.5 29.6 21.2 35.1 30.6 22.8 22.2 33.3 26.9
2010 26.4 17.3 38 20.6 48.2 28.9 25.8 32 24.1 21.5
Tieu diing cua hp gia dinh 2000
79.1 89.2 66.4 63.8 46.7 54.6 57.2 60.7 42.2 43.8
2010 69.4 81.7 66.5 71.9 34.9 53.3 54.3 56.6 36.9 47.9
Chi tieu chinh phu 2000
67 5.2 6.4 13.1 15.8 12 11.3 6.5 10.8 10.2
2010 9.3
6 6.1 9.6 12.5 14.9 12.6 9.3 11.1 13.1
Can can thuang mai 2000
-14.1 -11.9 -2.5 1.9 2.4 2.9 8.6 10.5 13.6 19.2
2010 -5.1
-5 -10.4
-2.1 4.4 2.9 7.3 2.1 27.9
17.5 1995-2010 (cao hon tdc dp tang trudng GDP
7,2%/nam), bdi vay ty le vdn dau tu so vdi GDP ngay cang cao, tir 17,6%) nam 1991 len 34,2%) nam 2000 va 41,9% nam 2010. Rieng nam 2011, thyc hien chinh sach cit giam dau tu cdng va nen kinh te
Nguon: WB (2011) roi vao tinh trang suy giam tdng eau, ty le vdn dau tu so vdi GDP giam manh xudng 34,6% (Bang 2).
Trong sd cac ngudn vdn dau tu, vai trd cua dau tu nha nudc va dau tu nudc ngoai giam trong 15 nam 1995-2011 (til- 42% xudng 39% va tir 30%
Bang 2: Ty le von dau tu so voi GDP cua Viet Nam, xudng 26%), ddi lap vdi su gia tang ty trpng 1991-2011 (theo gia thuc te)
Dan vi: %
Nam 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Ty le von dau tu tren GDP
17,56 22,38 30,07 30,41 31,65
Nam 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ty le v6n diu tu tren GDP
32,13 34,55 32,45 32,80 34,20
Nam 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ty le von diu tu tren GDP
35,42 37,16 37,76 38,45 38,67
Nam 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ty le von diu tu tren GDP 41,54 46,52 41,53 42,76 41,91 34,63 Nguon: Tong hap tie GSO (2008, 2011).
cua dau tu khu vuc tu nhan (tir 28%) len 35%).
Tdc dp tang trudng cac ngudn vdn ly giai cho xu hu'dng nay, khi ma vdn dau tu kinh te ngoai nha nudc tang gan 19%/nam, cao ban hai khu vuc cdn lai. Trong giai doan 1991-2010, tren 4000 doanh nghiep nha nudc da dugc cd phan hda, chiem hon 70% tdng sd doanh nghiep trong khu vyc nay (Thdi bao Kinh te Sai gdn Online, 2011). Thir hai, viec huy ddng ngudn lyc tu nhan gia tang khien sy phy thudc vao vdn dau tu nudc ngoai cd chieu giam bdt. Tuy
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Bang 3: Ty trpng von dau tu ciia tirng khu vuc kinh te, 1995-2011 (theo gia thuc te)
Dan vi: %
^"•-Hjanh phan Nam ^^-.^
1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 T6c do tang truong binh quan giai doan 1995-2011 (theo gia thuc tl, %/nam)
Kinh te Nha nucrc
42 59.1 47.1 40.6 38.1 38.9
16,31
Kinhtl ngoai nha
nudc 27.6 22.9 38 33.9 36.1 35.2
18.67
Khu vuc CO von dau tu nudc ngoai
30.4 18 14.9 25.5 25.8 25.9
15.7 Ngudn: Tdng hpp lie GSO (2008,2011).
vay, lupng vdn FDI dd vap Viet Nam trong thdi ky ddi mdi (1988-2010) len din gin 200 ty USD von dang ky va hon 80 ty USD vdn thyc hien (tdng ket tir Fl A, 2011).
Theo "Bao cao tdng ket nhiem ky Chinh phii", tdng muc huy dpng vdn dau tu toan xa hdi 2006- 2010 la 42,7% GDP, gip 2,5 lin so vdi giai doan 2001-2005, trong dd: vdn ngan sach: 21,5%; vdn trai phieu chinh phu: 5,5%), vdn tin dung dau tu ciia Nha nudc: 6,4%, vdn ciia Doanh nghiep nha nudc:
10,1%, vdn tu nhan va vdn khae: 56,5%. Sd lieu nay cho thay trong ca cau tdng dau tu cua nudc ta, Nha nudc hien nay la nha dau tu Idn nhat trong tdng dau tu toan xa hdi [8, 9].
Chi tieu chinh phu
Nguge lai vdi ty le cao cua tich luy tai san ciia khu vuc nha nudc, ty le chi tieu chinh phu cua Viet Nam thudc loai thap nhat trong sd cac nudc Ddng A va Ddng Nam A, chua bang mdt nua ciia Trung Qudc va Thai Lan, va lai giam dan trong mpt sd nam qua (giam tir 6,4% trong nam 2000 xuong 6,1% nam 2010).
Cdn cdn thuong nun
Trong thdi gian qua, sy phat trien cua kinh tl Viet Nam theo djnh hudng xuat khau da cd budc phat trien an tugng. Tdng kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam nam 2010 dat 78,3% GDP, cao hon so vdi Trung Qudc (29,7%), Indonesia (25,1%), ngang bang vdi Thai Lan (71,4%)), va thap hon Malaysia (96,9%). Tuy nhien, ty le nhap khau tren GDP cua Viet Nam cdn Idn hon, dan den ket qua la trong so cac nudc cd kim ngach xuat, nhap khau tren 60%
GDP thi chi Viet Nam cd tham hyt can can thuang mai. Can can thirong mai cua Viet Nam tham hyt
cung cho thay FDI ddng vai trd quan trpng trpng co cau vdn dau tu nudc ta.
3. Mot so khuyen nghi ve chinh sach tai khoa va tien te trong quan ly tong cau huong den 5n dinh kinh te vT mo doi vol nudc ta
Viet Nam hien van dang la mpt nen kinh tl quy md nhd, vdi ty trgng kim ngach xuat, nhap khiu cao nen cd the coi la nen kinh te kha md. Nin kinh tl da phai ddi phd vdi cudc khung hoang kinh tl thi gidi 2008-2009 trong bdi canh lam phat cua dit nudc tir cudi nam 2007 da thudc mire cao nhat trong khu vuc va trong qua trinh phyc hdi kinh te, lam phat nam 2011 Ien den 18,13%, trong khi tang trudng chi dat 5,89%. Khae vdi Trung Qudc d trang thai thang du ngan sach, viec thyc hien gdi "kich ciu" ciia ta dugc thuc hien trong bdi canh tham hyt ngan sach, Trung Qudc la mdt nen kinh te Idn vdi thang du thuong mai nam 2009 la tren 4% GDP (trong khi Viet Nam tham hut thuang mai chilm tren 10% GDP). Nhu vay tang trudng, lam phat, kha nang ngan sach, dy trCr ngoai te va tham hut thuang mai la nhung ylu td can dugc tinh den khi de xuat cac giai phap lien quan den quan ly tdng cau nham tranh gia tang bit dn kinh te vT md. Sau day la mdt sd khuyen nghj ve cac cdng cu chinh sach tai khda va tiln te trong viec quan ly eac thanh td cua tdng cau nham hudng tdi dn djnh kinh te vT md.
Tieu dung
d nude ta, mdt thj trudng ciia hon 75% dan so ndng thdn vdi mirc tieu diing thap la mpt thi trudng cdn dang rat nhieu tiem nang cho tang trudng. Tinh theo gia so sanh, ty le tieu dimg ciia hp gia dinh tang lien tuc vdi tdc dp binh quan 6,2%/nam trpng thdi ky 1991-2010 va tdc dp tang trudng nay ngay cang nhanh: 4,8%/nam giai doan 1991-1995 so vdi 8,3%/nam giai doan 2006-2010. Cd thi thiy, tdc dp tang trudng tieu diing ca nhan cua Viet Nam trong 5 nam trd lai day da cao ban tdc dp tang trudng kinh te chung. Tuy nhien, kinh te suy giam khien nhieu doanh nghiep phai thu hep san xuat, viec lam va thu nhap bj syt giam thi xu hudng cat giam tieu dimg la tit yeu (the hien qua chi sd tang trudng C nam 2009 chi dat 3,7% trudc khi phyc hoi mirc 9,4% nam 2010). Tdc dp tang (da loai trir ylu to gia) cua doanh thu ban le hang hda va djch vy nam 2011 la 4,7%, thap ban dang kl mirc tang 14% ciia nam 2010 va tham chi thap hon mirc 11% cua nam 2009. Nguyen nhan chinh lam giam tieu diing la lam phat cao lam giam thu nhap thuc tl cua ngudi tieu diing va cho vay tieu diing giam. De phyc hdi tieu diing, dac biet
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NGHieN cuu-TRflO D
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la ddi vdi tang Idp dan cu gap nhilu khd khan do lam phat cao, Chinh phu can sdm thuc hien viec dieu chinh luang ca ban, thuc hipn vipe giam thul thu nhap va dieu chinh muc thu nhap chiu thul.
Ddu tu
Keynes cho rang thanh td nay cua tdng ciu la nhay cam nhat. Tuy nhien, dng nhin manh ring ciu dau tu khdng ban chi phu thudc vao lai suit, ma cdn phu thudc vao ty le sinh Idi can bien cua diu tu.
Trong thdi gian qua, nin kinh tl tang trudng dua qua nhieu vao vdn dau tu, hieu qua sir dung diu tu thip va trong ca ciu tdng dau tu cua nudc ta, nha nudc hien la nha dau tu Idn nhit trong tdng diu tu toan xa hpi. Du kien trong 5 nam tdi, chinh sach tai khda se dugc dieu chinh theo hudng vdn dau tu phat trien toan xa hpi se giam xudng cdn 33,5-35%) GDP, giam manh so vdi trung binh 42,7% GDP trong 5 nam vira qua. Trong thdi gian qua, dau tu cdng cao la nguyen nhan chinh khien ng cdng cuaViet Nam cd xu hudng tang. Theo thdng ke, nam 2010 la 56,7%) GDP va du kien nam 2011 se tang Ien thanh 58,7% GDP. NIU dau tu cdng tao ra dugc cac hieu irng lan tda ddi vdi nen kinh te thi doanh nghipp tu nhan se dugc Igi hon, khi dd dau tu cdng cd tinh bd trg va thiic diy dau tu tu nhan phat trien. Tuy nhien, thuc tl tang trudng va phat trien kinh te cho thay diu tu cdng thudng dan den lan at dau tu tu nhan, dac biet khi dau tu cdng canh tranh ngudn lyc vdi diu tu tu nhan. Kha nang lin at dau tu tu nhan se Idn khi diu tu cdng do cac doanh nghiep nha nudc hoac thdng qua hinh thirc doanh nghiep nha nudc thuc hien. De nang cao hieu qua diu tu cdng, can hudng diu tu cdng theo hudng hd trg ap dung tien bg khoa hpc cdng nghp, tang nang suat cho khu vuc tu nhan va toan bp nen kinh te, trong mdt sd trudng hgp de bii dip thit bai ciia thj trudng cua mdt sd thi trudng dac biet (ching ban thj trudng lao dgng).
Trong boi canh lai suat cdn dang rat cao nhu hien nay, va chinh sach tai khda tac ddng den tdng cau khdng cdn nhilu du dja, chinh sach tien te dugc hy vpng se cd tac ddng nhieu den tdng cau thdng qua diu tu. Tinh trang doanh nghiep dang khat vdn cho thay nipt khi lai suat giam, cau ve dau tu se gia tang manh. Nhieu tin hieu cho thay dudng IS dang d viing thoai va chi can mdt su djch chuyen nhd cua dirdng LM sang phai (vdi chinh sach ndi Idng tien te) keo theo su di xudng cua lai suat se tao ra sire ciu Idn vdi dau tu va tao hieu irng gia tang san luang.
Chi tieu Chinh phu
Gian thul, giam thul ddi vdi doanh nghiep cd the dugc coi la mpt trong nhirng giai phap quan trgng de thao go khd khan cho doanh nghiep hien nay. Can doi ngan sach cin fhuc hien theo djnh hudng la giam thu va giam chi, dac biet la chi dau tu cdng.
Trong boi canh lam phat cao, kinh te dinh tre, thu nhap cua dan cu suy giam, viec gia tang vai trd va chi tieu chinh phii ddi vdi cac djch vu cdng (y te, giao d u e . ) se giam bdt ganh nang ddng gdp vao qua trinh xa hdi hda, ngudi dan - dac biet la ngudi cd thu nhap thap, cu dan ndng thdn se chi tieu nhieu hon cho tieu diing, dong thdi tiet kiem va dau tu tu nhan cd ca hdi tang. Diem yeu cua ngudn lao ddng Viet Nam hien nay la trinh dp chuyen mdn thap, trong thdi gian tdi, khi da gia nhap nhdm cac nudc thu nhap trung binh, nen kinh te khdng cdn Igi the canh tranh ve nhan lire gia re nCta ma can dua tren canh tranh bang ngudn nhan luc cd trinh dp chuyen mdn va tay nghe cao, va chinh phu can gia tang dau tu vao cac "kT nang cho tang trudng ben vCrng"
Xuat, nhgp khdu
Theo ly thuyet kinh te vT md, cac "ham" xuat khau va nhap khau deu phu thudc vao ty gia hdi doai. Mgt trong nhCrng nguyen nhan cua tinh trang tham hut thuang mai trong nhCrng nam qua la ddng Vipt Nam (VND) da trd nen qua manh so vdi ddng tien ciia cac ddi tac thuang mai chu yeu. Ty gia hieu dung thuc ciia VND giam trong giai doan 2000- 2003, nhung sau dd gan nhu tang lien tuc, dac biet la trong giai doan lam phat tang nhanh gan day, lam cho nhap khau tang nhanh ban xuat khau, tinh trang VND dugc djnh gia qua cao rd rang khdng the keo dai. Su suy giam cua tdng cau trong thdi gian gan day mang lai hieu irng tich cue la cau nhap khau giam dang ke, do dd can can thuang mai se dugc cai thien. Tuy nhien, xuat khau cung se giam di do VND trd nen kem canh tranh va cau ngoai nudc dang giam sut. Tinh tir dau nam 2012 tdi nay, xuat khiu tang 22,1%) so vdi cimg ky nam ngoai trong khi nhap khau chi tang 4,4%. Tang trudng xuat khau giam tir 23,0% trong thang 3 xudng 16,7% trong thang 4 so vdi ciing ky nam ngoai [8]. Nhin tdng thi, xuat khau rdng se tang do nhap khau giam, va mirc chenh lech Idn trong tang trudng xuat khau va nhap khiu cung da neu bat su suy giam manh cua cau ndi dia. Xuat khau se gap khd khan trong canh tranh do VND dang dn djnh, nen mac dii van se cd tang trudng, nhung tdc do xuat khau cua Viet Nam nhilu kha nang se cham lai trong nam nay. Ve nhap
Sd 184 lining 10 2012 29 kiohlfJIiiillni'
GHICN cuu-TRflODOI
khau, do hau het cac mat hang nhap khau cua Viet Nam dugc sir dyng cho san xuat han la tieu dimg, muc tang trudng nhap khau thap cho thay cac doanh nghiep dang kha than trgng va du doan nhu cau thj trudng se rat thap trong nhCrng thang tdi. Cac nguyen vat lieu nhap khau nhu phan bdn, bdng, vai sgi, nguyen lieu da giay, thep, d td, xe may, xang va khi ddt hda Idng da sut giam manh trong vai thang trd lai day khi so sanh ciing ky nam ngoai. Theo phan tich cua HSBC, vdi mure suy giam trong cau nhap khau, phan anh cau tieu diing trong nudc thap cung nhu mdi trudng san xuat khd khan hon, ky vgng tham hut thuang mai se dugc cai thien dang ke va giam tir 9,8 ty USD trong nam 2011 xudng 4,6 ty USD trong nam 2012. Ngay ca khi mirc tang trudng nhap khau se len lai vao cac thang tiep theo khi lai suat cho vay giam va cd them nhieu cdng cy ndi Idng dugc thuc thi, mirc tang trudng nay cung se giam xudng 14,0% cho ca nam so vdi du bao trudc day la 20,6% [8].
Nhu vay, trong khi chung ta kha thanh cdng trong viec tiet giam nhu cau de kiem che ap lyc lam phat, he luy keo theo la da tang trudng da suy giam nhieu han mong dgi. Trong quy dau nam 2012, tang trudng da giam xudng mirc 4 , 1 % , thap nhat ke tCr thang 3/2009. Neu so sanh vdi quy trudc, GDP da suy giam manh nhat trong vdng mdt thap ky. Do tang tru'dng da giam nhieu ban du kien va lam phat lien tuc diu xudng, kha nang la Ngan hang nha nudc se tiep tyc ndi Idng chinh sach tien te trong thdi gian tdi thdng qua viec tang trudng tin dung cho nen kinh te thdng qua viec thuc thi chinh sach tin dung uu dai
cho cac nganh trgng yeu ciia nin kinh t l da bit diu dugc trien khai.
De ket luan, can luu y la trong qua trinh thuc thi cae chinh sach kinh te vT md, can dam bao nguyen tac la cac chinh sach quan ly tdng ciu thdng qua viec tac ddng tdi cac yeu td cau thanh tong ciu cin dugc thuc hien phdi hgp ddng bd vdi mat cung cua nen kinh te: neu khdng kich cung thi it nhit cung khdng thyc thi cac chinh sach tac ddng tieu cue din tdng cung. Ve nguyen ly, giai phap co ban va cd hieu qua dua nin kinh te ra khdi trang thai dinh lam la phai thye thi cac chinh sach "trpng cung" Viec dang thuc thi cac nd luc dua nin kinh t l ra khdi trang thai dinh lam ma lai tang gia dien, gia xang...
se la nguyen nhan eiia lam phat cao trd lai dong thdi nen kinh t l khd thoat khdi tinh trang dinh ddn.
Kinh te vT md bat dn mdt mat lam Id rd tit ca nhCrng yeu kem va bat hgp li cua ca ciu kinh tl hien tai, nhung mat khae lai tao tiln d l d l tai ciu true lai nen kinh te phii hgp hon va thyc hien chuyin ddi md hinh tang trudng. Khi kinh t l vT md bit dn, theo Keynes, neu de nen kinh te ty dieu tilt, thi cd thi se di qua muc can thiet bdi quan tinh cua nd va gay ra nhCrng hau qua nghiem trgng va keo dai. Vai trd ciia chinh phii trong qua trinh dieu chinh nay la lam cho nen kinh te tranh sy bat dn qua muc cung nhu qua trinh dn djnh trd lai dugc dien ra nhanh hon. Chinh phu can sir dyng cac chinh sach tai khda va tien te nhu la nhung cdng cy phan bd lai cac ngudn luc cua nen kinh te nhat quan va cd chu dich, khdi phuc niem tin ciia ngudi dan vao he thdng tai chinh va kinh te cua dat n u d c . D
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Trin Tho Dat (2009), Cdc gidi phdp kich cdu nhin lie kinh le hoc Keynes, Tap chi Kinh tl va Phat trien, so thang 6(144).
2. Tran Thp Dat (2011), Qudn ly Idng cdu huang den dn dinh kinh li vtmd, Hpi thao qu6c te, Hpc vien Ngan hang, thang 11.
3. WB (2011), World Data Bank, [http;//databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do]
4. WB and IPC (2011), Economy Rankings in Doing Business, [http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings]
5. GSO (2008), Sd lieu bdo cdo thdng ke cac nam 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007.
6. GSO (2010), Tinh hinh kinh le- xa hoi nam 2010, [http://www.gso.gov.vn/
default.aspx?tabid=413&thangtk= 12/2010]
7. GSO (2012), Nien gidm Ihdng ke torn tdi 2011, Nxb. Thing ke
8. Nhat Nam, Suy gidm Idng cdu qua gdc nhin cua HSBC, http://www.baomoi.com/
Home/KinhTe/vneconomy.vn/Suy-giam-tong-cau-qua-goc-nhin-cua-HSBC/8390118.epi
9. Thuy Tien, Tinh hinh kinh te vT md cua Viet Nam nam 2011 vd du bdo 2012, (http://xiaoxian.wordpress.com/2012/02/15/tinh-hinh-kinh-t%E1%BA%BF-vi-mo-c%E1%BB%A7a- vi%E 1 %BB%87t-nam-2011-va-d%E 1 %BB%B l-bao-2012/)
10. http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/tamnhin.net/Tinh-hinh-kinh-te—xa-hoi-nam-2011/7635986.epi 11. http://vi.wikipedia.org
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