TAICHINH v l MO ( So 6(71)-2009 )
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Kich cau va Idem soat Iam phat trong giai doan suy thoai kinh te
Ths. La Thj Lam
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f o/ig bdi cdnh suy thodi kinh te todn cdu vd nhirng dnh hudng tieu cue ddi vdi nen kinh te Viet nam, vua qua Chinh phu ddphe duyet gdi kich cdu hdng tram nghin ty VND. Mac dii Id qud so'm de bdn ludn den hieu qud tie gdi kich cdu, nhung rd rdng day Id mpt bien phdp cdn thiet trong nguy cff suy thodi kinh te nh u h ien nay. Khdng cd nh dng thdng tin chinh xdc ve viec su dung gdi kich cdu, ngoai tru rd n et nh at Id ch uffng trinh h d trff ldi sudt sau ddu tu theo ch u truffng cuaheth dng ngdn hdng. Theo nguyen ly, nhiing bien phdp nhdm kich thich tdng trudng kinh te se tgo ra nhdng nen tdng vdng chdc nhdm dn dinh sire mua tien te trong ddi hgn. Vdi nhirng bien dpng ve chisd gid tieu dung trong nhung thdng cudi ndm 2008 vd ddu ndm 2009, hien tgi Igmphdt khdng cdn trff thdnh van de ddng lo nggi cua nen kinh te cung nhu cdc cff quan qudn ly tien te. Tuy nhien, nhirng bien phdp kich cdu dugc thuc thi cung khdng ngoai trir Idm cho Igmphdt cd the gia tdng trff lgi, do Id.- De ddng bd vdi chii truang ki'ch eau, thi van de day manh xuat khau, kiem soat nhap khau nham giam mire tham hut ciia can can thuang mai la rat can thiet, dac biet trong dieu kien muc tham hut ngan saeh Ien tdi 20% GDP trong nam 2008. £)k dat dugc mue dich nay djnh hudng dieu hanh ehfnh sach tien te eiia ngan hang Trung uong la phai dieu chinh ty gia theo hudng nham giam sue mua VND, bdi neu de ty gia nhu trong giai doan vii'a qua thi theo danh gia va tinh toan eiia cac chuyen gia kinh te, ddng Viet nam dang dugc danh gia cao so vdi gia trj thuc ciia nd. Neu xu hudng nay van dugc duy tri se dan den he luy la nhap khau se tang manh, mdt mat lam cho tham hut thuang mai tang, mat khac dau tu trong nude se gap nhieu khd khan do sire canh tranh ciia hang trong nudc giam so vdi hang ngoai dan din mau
thuan vdi chii chuang kich cau ciia nha nudc. Tir cudi nam 2008, hang loat cae bien phap duge thdng ddc NHNN quyet djnh nhu dieu chinh tang ty gia binh quan tren thj trudng ngoai te lien ngan hang, ndi rdng bien do ty gia gitra VND vdi USD(
Til- +/-2% Ien +IJ>% va tir 24/3/2009 la +/- 5%). Tuy nhien, nhung dien bien tren thj trudng eho thay bien do nay van ehua dii cho viec cdi bd chile ao duge coi la chat ehdi cho ty gia hdi doai trudc nhiing mong dgi va ky vgng ciia thj trudng tu do.
Hon nua, khi cac bien phap kich cau phat huy hieu qua se tae dgng lam hdi phue dau tu va tang trudng ndi chung cung nhu dau tu cho nhumg nganh hang xuat khau ndi rieng, nhu eSu ngoai te vi the ma tang Ien tao ap luc tang ty gia hoi doai giira VND vdi USD.
Ty gia tang, ddng nghTa vdi viec VND giam gia, ben canh
mat tfch cue la gdp phan eai thien can can thuang mai eung se gdp phan lam eho lam phat gia tang, va dieu nay cang trd nen xau ban neu hieu qua dau tu til- nhung gdi kich cau ciia Chfnh phii la khdng cao.
- Hang loat eae bien phap ki'ch cau cua nen kinh te da va dang trien khai trong nhung thang dau nam 2009 se phat huy hieu qua vao giai doan eudi nam 2009 trd di. Tinh din eudi thang 4/2009 da cd khoang tren 250.000 ty ddng dugc bam qua he thdng eae td ehire tin dung theo chuang trinh cho vay hd trg lai suat, mdt lugng cung tiin ldn dugc dua vao luu thdng trong nam 2009 rk cd thi lam cho lam phat gia tang cho dii nhQ-ng tac ddng theo chieu hudng tich cue hay tieu cue.
+ Nlu tfch cue, cac bien phap kich cau se gdp phan thuc daycac thj trudng chii chdt nhu thj trudng bat ddng san, thj trudng
^2) Tap chf n g h i e n c d u Tdi chfnh k e ' t o d n
( Sd 6(71)-2009 )
TAI CHINH VI MO
chirng khoan se dan am Ien trude nhu'ng ehi sd kha quan ciia nen kinh te ve tang trudng. Ddng thdi, thu nhap dai bd phan ngudi dan duge tang Ien do cdng an viee lam duge md rdng. Nhung ket qua tieh cue tir viee kich cau tieu dimg va dau tu ciia nen kinh te se hieu irng lam eho mat bang gia cd xu budng tang.
+ Trong trudng hgp hieu qua eiia chuang trinh ki'ch cau khdng cao, vi nbu ngudn vdn cho vay hd trg lai suat tir cae TCTD khdng dugc dau tu eho nhung du an thue sir cd hieu qiia tdt (Dieu nay ed the xuat phat tir If do trong bdi canh suy thoai kinh te, ea hdi thanh edng cho eae boat ddng kinh doanh bj giam thap, hoae ngudn vdn vay lai dugc sir dung khdng diing nhu mue di'eh da giai trinh.Nhiing Iy do nay, se gay nen su mat can ddi giua tang trudng eung tien vao nen kinh te vdi mue do gia tang lugng hang hdadjehvu.
- Ngudn ehinh de hd trg dau tu theo chuang trinh kich cau ciia Nha nudc bien nay phan Idn lay til' ngudn vdn vay qua viec phat hanh trai phieu ehinh phu.
Mae dii khdng nam trong phan can ddi ngan sach nha nudc, nhung nhu cau vay eao se lam eho lai suat thj trudng va ganh nang ng ciia NSNN se tang (Neu chinh phii vay bang ddng ndi te d thj trudng trong nude) hoae gay nen nhurng riii ro ve ty gia hdi doai (NIU lua chgn phuang thue di vay bang ngoai te dthj trudng nude ngoai). Trong tinh huong nay dl dam bao uu tien muc tieu
tang trudng kinh te, ap lure tang cung tien qua eho vay vdi ngan saeh Nha nude hoae diing du trur ngoai hdi Nha nudc de ean thiep thj trudng deu cd the dua den ket cue la lam phat se gia tang.
.. .Nbu vay ed the thay, nam 2009 la nam ma muc tieu hang dau eiia Chinh phii la ehdng nguy ea suy thoai nen kinh te, dieu nay hoan toan phii hgp vdi bdi eanh thue te eiia nen kinh te cung nhu bdi eanh chung cua nhieu nudc tren the gidi. Lam phat da duge day liii so vdi nam 2008, va khdng trd thanh van de quan ngai trong nam 2009, tham ehi nguy ea giam phat la ndi lo hien hu'u cua cae nha quan ly kinh te trong nhiing thang dau nam 2009. Tuy nhien, vdi nhung phan tieh tren cho thay, mac dii lam phat ed the chua quay lai, hoac neu ed cung chua dang lo ngai trong giai doan cudi nam 2009 va dau nam 2010. Nhung nhung thdi gian sau dd, khi eae bien phap ki'ch cau "da ngam", lam phat cd the gia tang trd lai la dilu khdng phai khdng the xay ra. Thuc tl, lam phat trong thdi gian vira qua dugc cac chuyen gia kinh te cho rang cd su ddng gdp khdng nhd cua cac bien phap ki'eh cau chdng giam phat thdi ky 1999-2001. Dh tranh tam Iy chu quan ddi vdi viec kiem soat lam phat.ben canh nhung lua chgn dung dan ciia Chinh phii ve dieu hanh kinh tl vT md, vdi trgng trach dieu hanh chinh sach tien te NHNN eSn luu y mdt sd cac bien phapsau.
Thii' nhat, NHNN cin ed
bien phap giam sat chat che tang trudng tin dung ciia he thdng ngan hang, dae biet la tang trudng tin dung tir ngudn vdn hd trg lai suat theo chuong trinh kich cau eua Chinh phii. Tranh tinh trang vi khd khan trong viee md rdng tin dung ma nhieu ngan hang qua xem nhe cac bien phap can thiet de dam bao an toan tin dung, hoae nhirng riii ro khi ngan hang va khaeh hang eiing thdng ddng de dem lai lgi ich rieng, ma dieu do cd the gay nguy ea tiem an ve riii ro phat sinh eung nhu mat can ddi gitra tang trudng tin dung va hieu qua dau tu eiia nen kinh te. Neu tdc do tang trudng tin dung van dugc tiep tue nhu trong thdi gian viia qua (dae biet
la trong thang 4/2009), thi tang trudng tin dung nam 2009 ed the Ien tdi tren 30% (dieu nay khdng phai la khd trd thanh hien thue vi cang vao nhung thang eudi nam nhu eau giai ngan vdn tin dung eang tang). Tang trudng tin dung de ehdng nguy ea suy thoai kinh te la can thiet, nhung tang trudng tin dung "ndng" trong dieu kien kha nang hap thu vdn va hieu qua dau tu thap thi can phai can nhac dung tren gdc do quan ly ciia NHNN.
Thir hai, Dieu hanh linh hoat eae cdng cu chfnh sach tien te nhu lai suat, ty gia, thj trudng md phii hgp vdi thuc te ciia thj trudng va ddng bd vdi cae chinh sach tai khda, chinh sach thuong mai de dn djnh thj trudng tien te, hudng tdi nhung muc tieu kinh te vTmd.
-Vdi ehinh sach lai suat.
Tap chf nghien cdu Tdi chfnh ke todn <^13
TAI CHINH v l MO
( So 6(71)-2009 )
trong thdi gian tdi NHNN ed thi ndi lai suat ca ban so vdi muc 7%o nhu hien nay de tao dieu kien can ddi giua yeu eau tang trudng ngudn vdn huy ddng vdi tin dung dau ra. Bdi vdi muc tang trudng tin dung tinh den eudi thang 4 nam 2009 da tang khoang
11,16%) so vdi eudi nam 2008, trong khi dd Iai suat huy ddng xudng thap khdng hap dan cac nha dau tu so vdi cac kenh dau tu khae nhu vang, thj trudng bat ddng san, chu'ng khoan..Nhieu ngan hang thuang mai da phai tang lai suat d mire kjch tran nham tang ngudn vdn huy ddng, dap u'ng nhu cau giai ngan ngudn vdn cho vay uu dai, nhung tde do tang trudng ngudn vdn huy ddng van rat eham. Theo bao cao eiia NHNN, tdc do tang trudng huy ddng vdn eao nhat trong thang 4 eiing chi tang 3,74%) so vdi thang trudc (Thang 3 tang 3,4%), thang 2 tang 1,62%, thang 1 tang 0,18%)). Nhu vay tinh chung Iai tde do tang trudng ngudn vdn huy ddng tir dau nam trd lai day la 8,94%), thap ban so vdi mire tang trudng tin dung la 11,16%).
Mae dii ve ly thuyet chung khi lai
suat ha se gdp phan kich thi'ch dau tu, nhung trong dieu kien thuc te d Viet Nam hien nay neu lai suat xudng qua thap trong dieu kien thuc hien ca ehe ed djnh ty gia se Iam cho ngudi dan chuyen sang hinh thuc mua vang cat tru' hoac gam gitr ngoai te. Xu hudng nay, trudc tien se lam giam kha nang huy dgng vdn vao trong he thdng ngan hang, ke tiep la chi tieu tieu diing ciia ngudi dan giam thap, va dieu dd'cd nghTa la kich cau bang each ha Iai suat trd nen het sue kem hieu qua.
-Vdi ehinh saeh ty gia, trong giai doan nhay cam hien nay viee dieu hanh eiia NHNN phai hit sue than trgng. Tam ly mong dgi tinh trang pha gia VND ciia cac nha dau ea hien nay la rat Idn, vi vay viec dieu chinh ty gia phai tranh nhung hieu irng xau ve mat tam Iy. Xet ve trang thai cung cau ciia thj trudng, ap luc ddi hdi NHNN dilu chinh ty gia theo hudng giam gia VND la can thiet, nhung quyet sach thue hien ciiaNHNN can phai thi hien tfnh nhat quan trong thuc hien va phat ra nhirng tin hieu rd rang dl
cac nha dau tu trong va ngoai nudc cung nhu ngudi dan tin tudng vao kha nang kiem soat eung irng tien te va ty gia hdi doai eiia NHNN. Thue hien bang bien phap tang ty gia ngoai te tren thj trudng lien ngan hang, hay ndi ldng bien do ty gia can phai tinh den nhung phan irng ciia thj trudng, ddng thdi ket hgp ddng bd vdi cdng cu Iai suat, ty le du tru' bat bude, thj trudng md dl tranh can sdt ngoai te mdi khi cd dot dieu chinh ty gia hdi doai nhu trong thdi gian vira qua.
Thir ba, Can lam tdt cdng tac du bao, phan tfch tinh hinh thj trudng tien te, cap nhat cac thdng tin thudng xuyen, dua ra cac phan tfch danh gia dien bien thj trudng de kjp thdi tham muu cho thdng ddc eae bien phap xir ly.
Ddng thdi, cac thdng tin vl thj trudng chirng khoan, thj trudng vang va thj trudng bat ddng san eung phai duge cap nhat va xem xet. Vi day la cac thj trudng ma mdi su bien ddng eiia nd diu cd nhQ-ng anh hudng din thj trudng tien teva ngugc lai./.
© Ban nhau
Trong mot quan bia. vi khach ngdi mot minh iam bam: "A, horn nay chii may da den day thi cir d day vdi td, hai ta cung iai rai".
Ngwdi phue vu thay thi, nghTch§c khach da rat say ben tien lai hdi: -.
- Thwa ngai, ngai dang noi vdi ai day a?
- V&i con rudi trong coc bia nay nay!
14> T a p chf nghien cdu Tdi chfnh k e ' t o d n
