KY YEU "CAC Of! TAI NGHIEN CUll KHOA HOC- CONG NGHE NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI DOAN 2002-2006'
BE TAI: X A Y D U N G P H A N M E M D U B A O K H A C H Q U A N L U O N G M U A T H A N G , M U A T R O N G M U A M U A V U N G D O N G B A N G B A C B O
C o quan chu t r i : Trung tdm khi tugng Thuy van Qudc gia C h u n h i e m de t a i : KS. Dd Tien Dtic
C a n t h a n h v i e n :
TS. Bui Minh Tang - Trung tam Khi tuong Thuy van Qudc gia KS. Trdn Viet Nga - Trung t&m Khi tuong Thuy van Qudc gia KS. Vu Van Phong - Trung tam Khi tuong Thuy van Qudc gia KS. DS Huy Thao - Trung tam KM tuong Thuy van Qudc gia Muc tieu cua de tai:
• Xac dinh moi quan he giua su bien dpng cua lupng mua thang va mua d Dong bang Bac Bp vdi su bien doi nhiet dp mat nude bien (SST) d mpt sd dia diem vinh Bac Bp, cac khu vuc dac trung hoat dpng ENSO (4 khu: A , B, C, D ) viing xich dao Thai Binh Duong; \ -
• Xay dung mo hinh du bao chuan sai lupng mua thang va mua trong mua mua d D6ng bang Bac Bp;
• Tien hanh xay dung phan mem du bao khach quan han dai va mua ve lupng mua, nang cao nang luc va hieu qua du bao cua Dai K T T V K h u vuc Ddng bang Bac Bp;
• Xay dung md hinh canh bao lupng mua di thudng trong mua mua, kha nang gay thien tai.
Tom tat bao cao:
Bao cao de tai ngoai ldi ndi dau, ket luan va kien nghi con cd 4 chuong sau day:
Chuong I : Co sd khoa hoc nghien cdu D u bao lupng mua khu vuc Dong Bang Bac Bp;
Chuong I I : Dac trung lupng mua thang va mua khu vuc Dong Bang Bac Bp;
Chuong I I I : Quan he giua nhidt dp mat nude bien vdi lupng mua trong cac thang miia mua d viing Ddng Bang Bac Bp;
Chuong I V : M d hinh du bao lupng mua thang va miia Trong miia mua d viing Dong Bang Bac Bp.
Ket qua nghien curu:
C H l f O N G I : C O SO" K H O A H O C N G H I E N CC/U D ' J B A O L U O N G M U A K H U V U C D O N G B A N G B A C B O
1.1. MOI QUAN HE DAI DUONG - KHI QUYEN
1.1.1. V a i t r d cua k h i quyen, dai duong v d i che dp k h i hau
Khfquyd'n: Su can bang nang lupng giua vung xich dao cd ngudn nhidt ldn vdi cac
KY YgU "CAC B£ TAI NGHIEN CUU KHOA HOC- CONG NGHg NGANH TAl NGUYEN VA Mfti TRI rrtMr, GIAI BOAN 2002-2006' viing khac thong qua su bde hoi trong khong k h i tren dai duong va ngupc lai, su ngung tu
lai toa nhiet vao k h i quyen d noi khac, tao ra tuan hoan nhiet, la mpt trong nhung nguyen nhan dien bien thdi tiet d cac noi tren trai da't.
Dai duong: So v d i k h i quyen: dai duong cd sdc y hon, ddng thdi tich luy va giu lai mpt lupng nhiet ldn hon nhieu. Ldp xao trdn cua dai duong tiep xuc vdi k h i quyen day khoang 100m d vung bien nhiet ddi, co the gift lupng nhiet gap 30 ldn so vdi toan bp khi quyen. Ket qua la chi mdt su thay ddi nho cua dai duong cung gay anh hudng dang kd
den khi hau toan cau.
1.1.2. Tuong tac dai duong - khi quyen tren khu vuc xich dao - nhiet ddi Thai B i n h D u o n g
Ngudn nhiet ldn nhat trong k h i quyen nam d vung xich dao Thai Binh Duong (TBD), bdi v^y, tuong tac dai duong - k h i quyen d day cung vdi nhung bidn dpng cua no da dupe nghien cdu ngay cang nhieu va no dupe coi nhu "chia khoa" t i m nhung quy luat bidn dpng thdi tie't d vung nay va lan can.
6 vung xich dao, ddng khi theo hudng ddng-tay TBD tao ra su ndng ldn manh me
cua khdng k h i d tay T B D va ddng giang d ddng T B D , tang cudng gid ddng tren be mat bien vung xich dao T B D , gay tich tu vung nude ndng dai duong; ngupc lai, vung nude ndng duy tri ddi luu nhidt am trong k h i quyen.
1.1.3. Hien tupng ENSO
Cac khu vuc theo ddi hoat ddng ciia ENSO: De theo ddi hidn tupng El-nino va La- nina ngudi ta dua vao chudn sai nhidt dp mat nude bidn (SSTA) d 4 vung bidn xich dao TBD, gpi tdn: khu A , B, C, D .
ENSO cd quan he vdi bidn dpng cua lupng mua khu vuc T B D va lan can, anh hudng tdi thdi tie't d nhidu noi. Van de dat ra la can nghien cdu xac dinh mdc dd anh hudng cua su thay doi SST tdi thdi tiet nude ta nhu the nao?
1.2. CAC CHUONG TRINH NGHIEN CUU TREN THE GIOI
• Chuong trinh nghidn cuu T O G A - C O A R E ;
• Chuong trinh nghidn cuu hoan luu bidn xich dao Tay Thai Binh Duong;
• Chuong trinh thuc nghidm tren tuyen dao xich dao;
• Chuong trinh thuc nghidm nhidt ndi chi tuyen;
• Chuong trinh TOGA;
Cac md hinh du bao vdi nhan to SST: T d 1998 dd'n nay, m d hinh du bao han dai-khi hau dupe xay dung tu nhan to SST viing xich dao-nhidt ddi TBD, nhu: m d hinh I R I , ECHAM, COLA, NCEP, CCM3, NSIPP...
1.3. CAC CONG TRINH NGHIEN CUU TRONG NUOC
• 'Du bao khi hau ngdn han lupng mua d Viet Nam bdng phuong phap hdi qui nhieu bien tren co so thdng tin ve ENSO" exxa PGS.TS. Tran Vidt Lidn;
KY YEU "CAC BE TAl NGHIEN CUU KHOA HOC- C6NG NGHE NGANH TAl NGUYEN VA MOI TRUONG GIAI BOAN 2002-2006"
• "Xay dung md hinh du bao han d 7 vung Viet Nam tit moi quan he giua nhiet do mat nude bidn vdi chi so Sal cua ThS. Nguydn Due Hau;
• "Mdi quan he giua hien tuong ENSO vdi luong mua T.P Ha Long" cua ThS.
Nguydn Due Hau va Trinh Hai Duong.
CHlfONG II: DAC TRlfNG LUONG MUA THANG VA MOA KHU VUC DONG B A N G B A C B O
ILL KHAI QUAT VE VI TRI DIA LY, DAC DIEM DIA HINH VA KHI HAU KHU VUC DONG BANG BAC BO
IL1.1. Vi tri dia ly, dac diem dia hinh:
Ddng bang Bac Bd chiem hon 1/3 dien tich Bac Bd, dia hinh tuong ddi bang phang;
phia ddng giap vdi V i n h Bac Bd (Tay TBD); phia bac va phia tay - tay nam bao quanh bdi viing nui phia bac Bac Bd va day Hoang Lien Son; phia nam giap vung nui Bac Trung Bd II.1.2. Mot sd net cac dac trung chinh ve dac diem khi hau:
a) Dieu kien hoan luu: mang tinh chat mien nhidt ddi gid mua, vdi su chi phoi cua:
khdi k h i luc dia Chau a, khdi k h i nhidt ddi a'n D d Duong, khdi k h i xich dao Tay TBD...;
b) Che dd bde xa: Sd gid nang toan nam 1600-1700 gid. Thang nhidu ndng nha't la thang 7, tdi 200-220 gid;
c) Che dp nhidt: Nen nhidt dd cao hon cac noi khac d Bde Bd. Tdng nhiet toan nam 8500 - 8600°C. Thang ndng nha't la thang 6 va 7. Miia ddng rat lanh;
d) Che dp dm -gid: Dd dm trung binh nam 82 -e- 85%, vung ven bidn khoang 85%.
Mua he, trong nhung dot gid tay khd ndng dd dm xudng 40-50%. T d thang 7 dd'n he't miia ha dd dm ludn duy t r i d mdc cao;
e) Cdc hien tuong thdi tiet dac biet: Hang nam xua't hidn nhidu thdi tie't nguy hidm:
ret dam - ret hai, ldc, to, ddng, khd ndng, bao, ap tha'p nhidt ddi, dai hdi tu nhiet ddi, sdng ddng,... Bao va A T N D thudng anh hudng true tiep td thang 7-10, nhieu nhat la thang 8.
II.2. DAC TRUNG LUONG MUA THANG 6 DONG BANG BAC B0
11.2,1. Ddc trung gid tri luong mua trung binh (thdi ky 1960 + 2000): Tdng luong
mua nam phan bd kha ddng ddu trdn khu vuc, phd bien 1500 -e- 1900mm/nam. N o i cd tdng luotig mua nam ldn nha't la Phu L y , 1906mm. So ngay mua toan nam khoang 130 H-140 ngay. Luong mua thang tang dan t d thang 1 dd'n thang 7 - 9, rdi giam ddn dd'n cudi nam; cue dai thang 8 hoac 9.
77.2.2. Dac trung gid tri lupng mua cue dai: Luong mua cue dai thdi k y 1960 -s- 2000, xay ra d Thai Binh, Nam Dinh. Thang xuat hien gia t r i cue dai d cac noi cd x u the chuydn dich td tay sang ddng, t d bde xudng nam. Trong 41 nam, lupng mua thang cue dai dat 655-984mm. Kha nang mua ldn d cac noi la gan nhu nhau.
77.2.3. Dac trung gid tri lupng mua cue tieu: Lupng mua cue tidu d cac noi tap trung td thang 10 dd'n thang 4 nam sau; thap nhat la thang 12, xa'p x i 0 m m . T d thang 5 - 9 cung cd nam xuat hidn lupng mua rat tha'p, dudi 50mm, nen khd han cung cd thd xay ra
KY YEU "CAC BE TAI NGHIEN CUll KHOA HOC- CONG NGHE NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI BOAN 2002-2006- ngay trong mua mua. N a m co luong mua cue tieu thucmg xay ra dong thdi 6 cac noi, nen kho han xay ra thudng tren dien rdng.
11.2.4. Dac tntng dp bien dpng cua lupng mua: Bien dd luong mua giua nhung nam cue dai va nam cue tieu la rat ldn, nha't la trong cac thang mua mua: trung binh 782mm, cue dai vao thang 8. D d bien ddng manh ddn t d bde xudng nam, manh nhdt la Ninh Binh, 893mm (khdng ke trudng hop nam 2003 d Thai Binh).
Thai ky giua mua mua: luong mua nam cao nhat tren 500^-800mm/thang, nam tha'p nhdt 40-J-50mm/thang. Luong mua cue dai gap 10 -H 15 ldn cue tieu.
II.3. DAC TRUNG LUONG MUA MUA 6" DONG BANG BAC BO
II.3.1. Ddc trung lupng mua mua mua: Thudng mua mua t d thang 5 - 10. Lupng mua mua mua chiem 84-90% lupng mua toan nam. Tong lupng mua mua mua trung binh 1260-1580mm. Thang 8, trung binh 300-350mm, cd 15-20% so nam lupng mua thang 8 tren 500mm.
Tong lupng mua mua mua, gia tri cue dai chenh ldch rdt l d n so vdi gia tri trung binh nhieu nam (TBNN), ldn nhat so vdi cac vung khac d Bde Bp. Trong 41 nam, cue dai 2150- 2780mm, 164-187% T B N N ; cue tidu 776-990mm, 5 7 - 6 3 % ' T B N N . Lupng mua trung binh toan vung cue dai dat 2366mm (nam 1994), 167% T B N N ; cue tidu 876mm (nam 1988), 62% T B N N . V i v&y, bien dpng lupng mua mua mua manh, lupng mua mua mua cua nam cue dai so vdi nam cue tidu rdt ldn, gdp 2,8 - 3,3 ldn; trung binh toan vung gdp 2,7 ldn.
11.3.2. Dac trung luang mua cdc thdng givca mua: Tuy mua mua t d thang 5 - 10, song lupng mua tap trung td thang 6 - 8 (giua mua mua); day la thdi k y cd lupng mua bien dpng nhat, gay ra l u lut - han han thdt thudng.
Lupng mua 3 thang giua miia mua chiem tren 50% lupng mua* toan mua. Trong 41 nam cho thay: nhung nam mua ldn (gdn dat cue dai) tren didn rdng cd tdi 6 nam (chiem 15%), nhung nam khd han (gdn xudng cue tidu) trdn didn rdng chi cd 3 nam (chiem 7%).
Cd nam didn bien mua rat phdc tap, trong cung mdt thdi gian, noi nay xay ra mua ldn, noi khac xay ra khd han (1975). Tren pham v i toan vung, nhung nam mua ldn, lupng mua cac thang gida miia dat 130 H- 1 7 1 % T B N N .
Dac trung mua di thudng Dong Mng Bde Bp thdi ky6+8
Nam cue dai, tdng lupng mua 6-^8 d cac noi chiem 51 -e- 8 1 % tdng lupng mua miia;
ngupc lai, nam cue tidu, lupng mua 3 thang nay chi dat 31 -r 4 2 % tdng lupng mua miia;
(lupng mua cue dai ldn gdp 3,1 ^ 5,1 ldn cue tidu).
Trung binh vung DBBB, lupng mua trong 3 thang nay, nam cue dai dat 161%
T B N N . nam cue tidu chi dat 53% T B N N .
CHlfONG III: QUAN HE GlQA NHIET DO MAT NUCJC BIEN VCJl LUONG MUA
T R O N G C A C T H A N G M U A M U A 6 V O N G D O N G B A N G B A C B O III. 1. CO SO- SO LIEU VA PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CUU
in.1.1. Nguon so lieu
Dp dai chudi sd lieu nghien cuu lay t d 1960-2000, day la thdi k y cd sd lieu dn dinh va bao dam chinh xac.
KY YEU 'CAC BE TAl NGHIEN COU KHOA HOC- CdNG NGHE NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUING GIAI BOAN 2002-2006- ^
• Vd so lieu SST: So lieu SST tai 2 tram Khi tuong Hai van (KTHV) Co To va Hon
Da'u, duoc sir dung lam tidu bidu cho SST V i n h Bac Bo, dac trung tinh dia phuong. So lieu SST 4 khu vuc A , B, C, D tidu bieu viing xich dao T B D .
• Ve so Mu luang mua: Cac tram K h i tuong lay tieu bidu: Son Tay, H a i Duong, Hung yen, Ha N d i , Phu L y , Nam Dinh, Thai Binh va N i n h Binh.
IILL2. Phuong phap phan tich
Tir cac chudi lam nhan to gom chudn sai nhidt dd mat nude bidn (SSTA) tai cac dia didm va cac khu va cac chudi yd'u to phu thudc gdm chudn sai luong mua thang (AR) tai cac tram dac trung (ddi tuong d u bao) tac gia tinh toan dupe tap cac ma tran tuong quan.
Dd xay dung md hinh du bao, tac gia tie'n hanh danh gia cac m d i quan hd qua khao sat dd ldn he so tuong quan trong tap ma tran. Trdn co sd dd tuydn lpc nhan to cho m d h i n h du bao.
III.2. QUAN HE VE CHUAN SAI GIUA SST CAC DIA DIEM DAC TRUNG V6l LUONG MUA THANG VUNG DONG B A N G BAC BO
Quan hd SSTva lupng mua thang dupe nghien cdu dudi dang chudn sai thang. T d cac ma tran tuong quan cho tha'y:
Bang 1. HSTQ Ion nhdt cua chudn sai AR vdi SSTA cac khu
Dja diem Co Td HdnDau K h u A K h u B K h u C K h u D
Son Tay +0.42 +0.52 -0.38 +0.41 +0.46 +0.38
Ha Npi -0.45 -0.54 -0.35 +0.44 +0.51 -0.38
Phu Ly -0.54 -0.50 +0.35 -0.32 -0.30 +0.41
Hung Yen -0.48 -0.51 +0.47 +0.37 +0.42 +0.39
Hai Duong -0.43 -0.53 -0.43 +0.36 +0.40 +0.40 Thai Binh +0.54 -0.52 -0.35 +0.32 +0.37 -0.49
Nam Dinh +0.51 +0.53 -0.54 -0.35 -0.32 -0.38
Ninh Binh -0.46 -0.48 -0.33 +0.46 -0.40 -0.47 Trung binh viing -0.45 -0.44 -0.34 -0.31 +0.34 -0.41 III.3. QUAN HE CHUAN" SAI 3 THANG SST CAC D I A D I E M D A C TRUNG VCJI LUONG MUA MUA MUA VUNG DONG B A N G BAC B 0
111.3.1. Ca sd phdn tich: Vide xac dinh mdi quan he giua tdng chudn sai 3 thang
ciia SST va chudn sai lupng mua mua (3 thang) thdng qua vide tinh toan ma tran tuong quan. Sd lieu su dung: nhan t d la chuan sai 3 thang nhiet dp mat nude bidn (SSTA3) tai cac dja didm va cac khu. Yd'u td du bao gdm chudn sai lupng mua 3 thang ( A3R ) cua cac tram tidu bidu. Ket qua tinh toan dupe tap cac ma tran tuong quan, t d dd phan tich va tuydn nhan to du bao.
^ KY YEU "CAC Bg TAI NGHIEN CUl) KHOA HOC- CONG NGH$ NGANH TAl NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI DOAN 2002-2006"
III.3.2. Quan he lupng mua mua 3 thdng v&i SSTA3 a cdc khu vuc:
Theo kinh hudng, m o i quan he giua luang mua mua vung Dong bang vdi SSTA, Vinh Bac Bo the hien cao nhat d trung tam, giam dan ra hai phia ngoai vung.
M d i quan he cua chuan sai luong mua vdi SSTA3 d 4 khu vuc deu bieu hien yeu hon so vdi d khu vuc V i n h Bde Bo.
Bang 2. HSTQ Ion nhat cua A ^R vol SSTA3 cac khu
Dia diem Co TO Hon Dau K h u A K h u B K h u C K h u D
Son Tay +0.48 -0.44 -0.48 +0.43 +0.40 -0.39
Ha Noi -0.43 -0.53 -0.40 +0.42 +0.41 -0.40
Phu Ly -0.48 +0.49 -0.32 -0.37 -0.32 -0.47
Hung Yen -0.44 +0.41 -0.36 -0.36 -0.35 +0.36
Hai Duong +0.47 0.36 -0.42 -0.31 -0.31 -0.39
Thai Binh -0.40 +0.34 -0.36 -0.37 -0.36 -0.48
Nam Dinh +0.43 +0.35 -0.34 -0.33 -0.32 -0.40
Ninh Binh +0.44 -0.44 -0.34 -0.36 -0.41 -0.42
Trung binh viing +0.45 +0.44 -0.31 -0.32 -0.34 -0.47
C H U O N G IV: M O H I N H D U B A O L U O N G M U A T H A N G V A M U A T R O N G M 0 A M U A 6 V U N G D O N G B A N G B A C B O
I V . l . PHUONG TRINH H O I Q U I D U B A O LUONG M U A CAC T H A N G TRONG M U A MUA I V . 1.1. Cac phuong t r i n h d u bao luong m u a thang
Tdng sd gdm 48 phuong trinh duac xay dung dd du bao luong mua cac thang trong mua mua (td thang 5 - 1 0 ) cho 8 dia didm dac trung va 6 phuong trinh du bao luong mua trung binh toan vung.
IV.1.2. Cac phuong t r i n h d u bao luong m u a m u a (3 thang)
Tdng sd gdm 32 phuong trinh dupe xay dung dd du bao luong mua mua (3 thang) trong mua mua cho 8 dia didm dac trung va 4 phuong trinh du bao lupng mua mua trung binh toan vung.
I V . l . 3 . M d c c h i n h xac cac phuong t r i n h dur bao
1. Danh gia mdc chinh xac cua tri sddu bao: theo cdng thdc:
S = ± k % . RD B
Trong dd: S - Sai sd cho phep.
k % - Ty le % lech so vdi gia t r i du bao, tuy theo qui pham.
RD B - Luong mua du bao (tinh t d cac phuong trinh tren).
KY YEU 'CAC BE TAl NGHIEN CUU KHOA HOC- CONG NGHg NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI BOAN 2002-2006' ^ Luang mua dugc coi la du bao diing nd khi lugng mua thuc te (R^) nam trong
khoang sai so' lugng mua du bao:
R-TT = RDB — l^DB Muc chinh xac cua cac phuong trinh du bao:
D = nd/ N ( % )
trong do: D - Muc chinh xac tinh theo (%); nd - So lan diing.
N - Tong sd lan du bao.
Danh gia mdc chinh xac D cua cac tri sd du bao lugng mua theo so lieu phu thudc cho ket qua d bang 3.
2. Danh gia mdc chinh xac cua du bao xu the: Sd dung cac phuong trinh tren dd du bao xu the lugng mua theo cac cap dua vao cac ngudng d bang 4. Danh gia mdc chinh xac dang du bao xu the theo cdng thdc sau:
n , + n0 + n-,
D = — (%) N
trong do: D - Mdc chinh xac theo (%); n, , n2, n3 - sd ldn diing cua cap 1, 2 va 3.
N - Tdng sd ldn du bao.
Mdc bao dam cua m d i cdp du bao dugc tinh theo:
nc P = — - %
N c
trong do: P - Mdc bao dam (%); nc - sd lan dung cua du bao mot cap nao dd.
Nc - Tdng so ldn du bao cap dd.
Danh gia mdc bao dam P cua cac cap du bao xu the lugng mua theo sd lieu phu thudc cho kd't qua d bang 5.
IV.2. X A Y DUNG PHAN M E M D U B A O V A QUY TRINH D l / B A O
De tai sd dung ngdn ngu Passcal Windows va Visual Basic vdi vide thiet ke giao didn quy trinh du bao nhu sau.
/ ) Budc 1: Tao Shortcut chuong trinh ra man hinh nen dd su dung thuan Igi.
2) Budc 2: Cap nhat sd lieu trudc k h i chay chuong trinh d M e n u Du lieu.
ft
3) Budc 3: M d Menu Du bdo thdng.
4) Budc 4: kich chudt xem ban dd du bao lugng mua, cd thd in va ghi kd't qua.
5) Budc 5: Lua chon kd't qua du bao.
IV.3. MO H I N H C A N H BAO LUONG MUA D I THUDNG THCJI K Y GIUA M U A M U A I V . 3 . 1 . M d h i n h canh bao mua ldn d i t h u d n g t h d i k y 6 + 8
Dac trung md hinh nay cho ta tha'y: K h u C cd tri sd SSTA am (< 0) kha ldn (< - 2,5°C). Con lai, ndn chung toan bd viing xich dao-nhiet ddi T B D cd chuan sai SST duong,
KV YEU "CAC BE TAl NGHIEN CUll KHOA HOC- CONG NGHg NGANH TAl NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI BOAN 2002-2006- nhung khong Ion (<1"C). Co 3 trung tam SSTA duong: mot d bac Bien Dong (bao trum Vinh Bac Bo); mot d viing nhiet ddi Nam Ban cau giua T B D ; mot d sat phia bac khu B.
Ngoai viing nhiet ddi, m d rpng vd phia on ddi la SSTA< 0.
IV.3.2. M o h i n h canh bao it m u a d i t h u d n g t h d i k y 6 + 8
Ket qua m d hinh SSTA cho thay dac trung m d hinh nay: khac vdi m d hinh mua ldn di thudng la gan nhu toan bd cac khu cd chuan sai duong, nhung tri sd khdng cao (khdng vupt 1°C). Toan bd Bien Ddng SSTA>0 (« 1"C). Rieng doc xich dao khu B keo dai tdi khu C mang da'u am, cd mdt viing nho tri so rat tha'p (SSTA < - 1 , 5 ° ) .
T d hai m d hinh canh bao lupng mua di thudng d D B B B cho tha'y chung thupc nhung nam ENSO trung tinh. Nhung nam nay, lupng mua d D B B B rat phdc tap, trang thai cue doan rat dd xay ra. Dac trung phan bd cac trung tam chuan sai SST ciia hai md hinh tren la co sd de canh bao lupng mua di thudng.
Bang 3. Mdc chfnh xac (D%) cac phuang trinh du bao luong mua cho cac dia diem theo sai so cho phep vdi cac muc k%
Phuong trinh du bao cho dia diem
Mdc k %
Thang Phuong trinh du
bao cho dia diem
Mdc
k % V V I V I I V I I I I X X
Son Tay 30% 39% 64%) 64% 39%. 48%) 44%
Son Tay
40% 64% 73% 73% 56% 50%) 53%
Son Tay
50% 80% 89% 82% 68%) 70%) 60%
Ha Noi 30% 43% 52% 63%) 52% 54%) 36%
Ha Noi
40% 61% 67% 76% 65%) 65% 51%
Ha Noi
50%) 78% 83% 81%) 72%) 76% 62%
Hai Duong 30% 36% 56% 49% 60%) 42%) 47%
Hai Duong
40% 47% 67% 67% 76% 62% 53%
Hai Duong
50% 64% 76% 76% 80% 73%) 58%
Hung Yen 30% 39% 57% 43% 52% 50% 41%
Hung Yen
40% 59% 73% 64%) 70% 61% 55%
Hung Yen
50% 70% 84% 73%> 80%) 64% 66%
Phu Ly 30% 55% 57% 55%) 61%) 55% 41%
Phu Ly
40% 68% 73% 64% 80% 61% 61%
Phu Ly
50% 11% 89% 73% 86% 68%o 70%
Nam Dinh 30%, 38% 47% 47% 42%) 47% 36%
Nam Dinh
40% 60% 64% 53%) 64%o 62%) 49%
Nam Dinh
50% 69% 78% 64%> 84%) 73% 60%
KY YEU "CAC OE TAl NGHIEN CUD KHOA HOC- CONG NGHE NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI DOAN 2002-2006"
Phiromg trinh du bao cho dia diem
Muc k %
Thang Phiromg trinh du
bao cho dia diem
Muc
k % V V I V I I V I I I I X X
Thai Binh 30% 45% 57%) 48%) 50% 52%) 32%
Thai Binh
40%) 57% 73%> 57%) 57% 66% 39%.
Thai Binh
50% 64%) 80%) 68%) 75% 75%, 50%)
Ninh Binh 30% 48%) 57%> 52%> 55%) 43%) 34%
Ninh Binh
40%) 68%) 66% 61%) 68% 61% 57%
Ninh Binh
50%) . 80%) 75% 77% 89%) 73%) 68%) Vung
Ddng bang Bac Bp
30%> 63%. 68% 68%) 57% 52% 39%
Vung Ddng bang Bac Bp
40% 78%) 84%> 80%) 75%) 61%) 55%.
Vung Ddng bang
Bac Bp 50%) 85%) 93%) 89%) 82%) 11% 70%.
5a/7^ 4. Cac ngudng cua chi tieu du bao xu the'lugng mua
Cap Nguong D u bao x u the
3 > 120%. R-TBNN Cao hon trung binh nhieu nam 2 120%. RTBNN - 80%. RTBNN Xap x i trung binh nhieu nam 1 < 80%. RTBNN Tha'p hon trung binh nhieu nam
RTBNN " Gia tri T B N N cua lupng mua thang hoac lupng mua miia.
Bang 5. Sudt bao dam cua cac cdp lugng mua du bao
Phuong trinh cho dja
diem
Cap du bao
Thang du bao Phuong
trinh cho dja diem
Cap du
bao V V I V I I V I I I IX X
Son Tay 3 67% 73% 88% 57% 60% 92%
Son Tay
2 21% 35% 46% 23% 44% 12%
Son Tay
1 91% 80% 80% 75% 89% 86%
Ha Npi . 3 29% 57% 50% 80% 44% 60%
Ha Npi
2 31% 30% 46% 32% 36% 26%
Ha Npi
1 60% 50% 82% 60% 67% 93%
Hai Duong 3 50% 75% 80% 83% 50% 73%
Hai Duong
2 26% 41% 45% 42% 27% 16%
Hai Duong
1 X 60% 53% 63% 36% 73%
KY YEU "CAC OE TAI NGHIEN CPU KHOA HOC- CONG NGHE NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOl TRUONG GIAI DOAN 2002-2006"
Phuong trinh cho dja
diem
Cap dir bao
Thang du bao Phuong
trinh cho dja diem
Cap dir
bao V V I V I I V I I I IX X
Hung Yen 3 79% 67% 55% 63% 67% 67%
Hung Yen
2 31% 36% 39% 38% 35% 21%
Hung Yen
1 64% 50% 80% 86% 78% 85%
Phu Ly 3 67% 67% 46% 67% 50% 86%
Phu Ly
2 37% 43% 22% 42% 31% 29%
Phu Ly
1 77% 57% 85% 100% 75% 77%
Nam Dinh 3 50% 44% 50% 45% 60% 71%
Nam Dinh
2 18% 35% 23% 4 1 % 32% 27%
Nam Dinh
1 82% 80% 78% 67% 69% 81%
Thai Binh 3 58% 55% 64% 50% 73% 69%
Thai Binh
2 24% 32% 53% 36% 25% 13%
Thai Binh
1 55% 82% 69% 67% 77% 81%
Ninh Binh 3 54% 78% 80% 7 1 % 60% 77%
Ninh Binh
2 25% 33% 33% 29% 38% 24%
Ninh Binh
1 73% 88% 90% 78% 92% 64%
Vung Dong bang Bac Bo
3 100% 71% 71% 33% 64% 80%
Vung Dong bang Bac Bo
2 4 1 % 42% 48% 44% 33% 37%
Vung Dong bang
Bac Bo 1 83% 50% 78% 50% 83% 80%
Ghi chu: (x) - Thieu so lieu.
IV.4. KET QUA DUBAO THlTNGHIEM
Thir nghiem mua mua nam 2004, tam sir dung k = 50% de danh gia mdc chinh xac du bao dinh luong (theo qui pham danh gia tam thdi). V i du: neu RD B= 100mm, dupe coi la du bao diing (+) neu 50mm < R-n- < 150mm, ngupc lai b i coi la du bao sai ( - ) . Ket qua co the chap nh^n dupe de dua vao nghiep vu.
Phuong phap nghien ciru:
De tai su dung cac phuong phap thdng ke bao gom:
+ Phuong phap tuong quan ; + Phuong phap hdi qui tung budc ; + Phuong phap phan ldp;
+ Phuong phap xay dung m d hinh cue tri cua I R I .
KY YEU "CAC OE TAl NGHIEN COU ^HOA HOC- CONG NGHE NGANH TAl NGUYEN VA MOl TRL/ONG GIAI SPAN 2002-2006°
Cac san p h a m cua de t a i :
1- Tap sd lieu thdng ke ve luong mua, SST, do cao dia the v i muc 500mb cac tram co lien quan va cac dac trung ENSO.
2- Tong ket khoa hoc cac ket qua nghien cdu duoc:
+ Ket qua phan tich cac dac trung mua;
+ Cac mdi quan he. Ket qua lua chon nhan td du bao ; + Cac ket qua tinh toan quan he. Cac phuong trinh du bao;
+ Cac md hinh du bao;
+ Phan mem du bao khach quan. Tap qui trinh thuc hien trong du bao nghidp vu;
+ Tap bao cao tdng ket cac ket qua du bao thd nghiem va danh gia khach quan mo hinh du bao;
+ Tap bao cao tdng ket toan bd nghien cuu va ket qua cua de tai.
3- Tat ca cac san phdm: co sd du lieu va cac chuong trinh duoc trinh bay tren giay va luu tren may tinh.
Y nghia khoa hoc:
• Xay dung co sd va phuong phap khoa hoc, nang cao nang luc cho du bao vien trong cdng tac du bao han dai va du bao mua;
• Dap dng nhu cau ngay cang cao cua su phat tridn kinh te xa hdi, gdp phan phuc vu phdng tranh giam nhe thien tai do mua gay ra.
KET LUAN
• Dac trung luong mua thang va mua d DBBB: Bien ddng lupng mua cac dia didm
rat phdc tap va phan hoa ra't ldn. Cd k h i trong ciing mdt thdi gian, noi nay thi mua ldn, noi khac thi it mua. Bdi vay lupng mua trung binh cua toan viing it cd y nghla. N o i cd lupng mua bien ddng manh nha't la phia ddng cua vung;
• Xet quan he giua SSTA vdi lupng mua DBBB, phai xet rieng tdng tidu khu, td do rut ra xu the chung;
• Do dia hinh vdi dieu kidn hoan luu gid miia manh me, m d i quan he giua SSTA vdi lupng mua DBBB khdng dn dinh va phdc tap hon phia nam V N ;
• Tuy nhien, ve xu the, cd thd tha'y mdi quan he lupng mua d hau he't cac noi vdi
SST vinh Bac Bp kha tdt. Rd nha't la thdi k y giua mua mua. K h u trung tam DBBB thd hien cd quan he rd nha't. Tuy nhien, d/k su dung khd khan;
• Mdi quan he lupng mua DBBB vdi SST d 4 khu vuc khdng tdt bang quan he vdi SST vinh Bac Bp va thudng trd vai thang. Thudng la dang tuong quan nghich.
Q KY YEU -CAC BE TAI NGHIEN CPU KHOA HOC- CONG NGH£ NGANH TAI NGUYEN VA MOI TRI fQNG GIAI BOAN 2002-2006-
KIEN NGHI
Ket qua budc dau da giup ich co hieu qua cho cong tac du bao khi tupng han dai va miia
d phong D u bao, my nhien chat lupng cua cac phuong trinh d u bao chua dupe cao nhu mong mudn vi chua dua dupe so lieu cua cac tram vinh Bac Bp vao lam nhan t d du bao;
• Mong dupe su giup do cua Dai va lanh dao Trung tam KTTV Qudc gia dd nghien cdu tiep cdng trinh nay, nang cao hidu qua va chat lupng hon.
