Ngliltn cilU trao ddi
Mpt SO phirdng phap danh gia hoat dong M&A
'Mua iDan. sap nh$p' hay 'mua l^i. sap nhap' la cum tCf Vi$t hoa cua thu$t ngii tieng Anh 'Merger &t Ac- quisition'. Viet tit la M&A.
dung dS chi viec mgt ca nhan ho$c m6t td chile tien hanh mua 1^1 co phan hoSc tai sin cua m0t ca nhan hay to chde khac de ti^n hanh m6t hoat ddng kinh doanh nhat dinh. Hoat d0ng nay t)at diu xuat hi^n tren the gidi til dau thS ky 19. gan vdi su ra ddi cua cac t$p doan dOc quyen. Den the ky 21. hoat ddng M6iA da phat trien vU0t b$c ve quy mo. gia tri va pham vi.
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hdng nam ngoai xuthe chung cua nen kinh te the gidi, hoat ddng mua bin, sap nhap doanh nghiep (DN) tgi Viet Nam bat ddu sdi ddng tir nam 2007 vdi 113 vu sap nhap tri gii 1,8 ty USD. Nam 2015, theo thdng ke cua Vien Sip nhap, mua lgi vd lien kit (IMAA),Viet Nam dung thii 24 Uen bing xep hang mua bin, sip nhap toan cau vdi tdng gii Xri cac thuang vu dgt 5,2 ty USD. Nam 2017, thi ttudng M&A dat 10,2 ty USD vdi khoang 600 thuang vu.
Phin ldn cic thuong vu dupe thuc hien bdi eae nhi dau tu nude ngodi. Thii Lan, Nhat Bdn, Hin Qude, Singapore la nhung qudc gia dan diu ve quy md cic thuong vu M&A tgi Viet Nam.
^ T h s . H ^ Quynh Anh*
Su phit trien nhanh chdng cua hoat dpng M&A tai Viet Nam nhirng nam gan ddy la ket qud cua nhiing nd luc cdi cdch the che, hoan thien khung khd phip luat, cai thien mdi trudng ddu tu - kinh doanh; chuang trinh tdi co cau toan dien nin kinh tl, dae biet l i khu vue DN nhi nudc; nang cao hieu qud vdn ddu tu nhd nudc tgi DN vd chinh sdeh, ea che thiic day, hd ttg, uu dai dinh cho kinh te tu nhin, dgc biet Id hogt ddng khdi nghiep ddi mdi sing tao.
Tuy nhien, Uong tuong quan so sdnh vdi cde thi trudng ttong khu vuc ASEAN, quy md cua thi trudng M&A Viet Nam vdn cdn khiem tdn. Nam 2017, nhd thuang vu ban thinh cdng 51% cd phan Sabeco vdi gid tri gdn 5 ty USD, thj trudng Viet Nam xep d miic tuong duong Malaysia (11,73 ty USD), Indonesia (10,76 ty USD) song cdn kha cdch biet so vdi Singapore (78,6 ty USD). Quy md giao dieh cua mdi thuang vu M&A ciing nhd, 90% sd lugng thuang vu cd quy md dudi 10 taeu USD. Hogt ddng mua bin, sip nhap mang tinh tu phdt eao vd phin ldn dugc thuc hien bdi eac DN tu nhan. Su tham gia ciia cic DN nha nudc vio hoat ddng nay cdn rat hgn chd, nang ve thii tuc, thay vi tgo ra gid tri cdng hudng cho chii sd hixu.
Trong phgm vi bii viet niy, tic gia xin dugc phep neu ra mdt sd y kien ve hoat ddng mua ban, sip nhap DN d cdp do thj trudng vd cdp dp DN, tren ca sd ddnh gid thuc trang M&A cdc DN d Viet Nam de dua ra cde gidi phap hoin
Nhan: 31/7/2019 Bien tap: 9/8/2019 Duyet dang: 16/8/2019 thien, thiic day hogt dpng M&A ttong thai gian tai d Viet Nam.
Danh gid hogt ddng mua ban sip nhap DN
1. Danh gia a cSp d$ thj trirtmg
O cdp dp thj trudtig, M&A la mpt each thiic phan bd vdn ddu tir, dieu chinh ddng chdy vdn giira cac chu the v i eie ITnh vuc, nginh nghe kinh doanh. Ddng thdi, M&A cung danh gid mue dp hdp dan ddng vdn ngogi cua mdt nen kinh te. Do vay, ddnh gid hoat ddng mua bdn, sip nhip d edp dp thi trudng Id Idra rd nhirng npi dung sau;
- Quy md giao djch cua thi trudng: Quy md giao dich la chi tieu tdng qudt nhdt de ddnh gii si;
phat trien ciia boat ddng M&A tai mdt thj trudng nhat dinh. Pham vi thi trudng cd the gdi ggn ttong mpt qude gia (mdt nen kinh tl) hoac mpt khu vue. Quy md giao dich dugc phin anh thdng qua sd lugng cic thuong vu ciing nhu tdng gii trj cua cic thuang vy Uong mpt nam, hoac mdt giai dogn nhat djnh. Quy md giao dich ciia mdt thj trudng ttong mdt khoing thdi gian nhdt dinh chi dugc xac dinh dua tten cdc thuang vu M&A da hoin tdt tgi dij trudng do ttong khodng thdi gian tuong ling. Quan sit su thay ddi cua quy md giao djch cho thay, trien vgng cua hogt ddng M&A tgi mdt thi trudng nhit dinh. Chi tidu ndy cho phep so sinh va dinh gid hogt ddng M&A tgi cic qudc gia, khu vuc khic nhau. Ddng thdi, day ciing la chi tieu eho thiy su vgn
* Hoc mnTAi chinh*
d ^i/i C/M S^ t4>dti &. .9/iem t^dtvso tAdtuj S 120^3
Nghien cihi trao ddi ddng vd diiu tiet ddng vdn ttong thi
trudng, eung nhu nhung chuyin bien ciia nen kinh t l truac ip luc cgnh tranh ciia nen kinh tl thi gidi.
- Chu the tham gia cdc giao dich: Giao dieh M&A tao ra thj trudng eho quyen kiem sodt DN.
Ddy la san ehai eua rat nhieu chu the, bdi tinh da muc dieh eiia hogt ddng nay. Neu xet theo vj tri va vai trd cua cdc chu the trong mpt thuang vy M&A, chii thi tham gia gdm ed DN mua/DN nhdn sdp nhap v i DN bin/DN mue tieu/DN di sdp nhap. Neu xet theo ca cau sd hihi, chii the tham gia gdm cd DN thudc sd hihi tu nhan va DN ed so hCtu nhd nuoc. N I U xet theo qudc gia, chu the tham gia gdm ed DN ndi dja (xet tgi mpt phgm vi thi trudng nhdt dinh) vd DN nudc ngoai. Hogt dgn§ M&A da rdt phd biln tai cdc qudc gia phdt trien, song edn khd mdi me tgi cde thi trudng mdi noi vi die biet l i cic thi trudng bien. Sg xdm nhgp vd tim kiem thj trudng ciia cie tap dodn da qudc gia hien nay tgo ra ldn sdng M&A xuyen qudc gia. Do vay, each thiic phin loai theo qude gia dang ngdy cdng trd nen phd bien khi xet den chii the tham gia thuang vu M&A.
- Phdn bd quy md giao djch theo mpt sd tieu chi: Quan sdt quy md giao djch cua thi trudng theo mdt sd tieu chi nhu nginh nghe kinh doanh, qudc gia, loai hinh DN se eho thiy su phdn bd vdn dau tu cua nen kinh tl eung nhu triln vpn^ phit ttien ciia timg ngdnh nghe kinh doanh. Thdng thudng, nhung nganh nghi ed sd lugng thuang vu nhieu, gii tri thuang vu ldn, vdi su tham gia cua nhieu nhd dau tu nudc ngodi Id nhimg nganh cd ttien vgng tang trudng vi phit trien trong tuang lai.
- Hinh thiic vi phuong thirc thuc hien giao dich: Su da dang ciia hinh thirc thue hien mpt thuong vu M&A la mdt trong nhihig tieu chi dinh gid muc dp phat ttien v i hoin thien ciia thi
trudng. Ddi voi ede phuong thuc thue hien giao dieh, thj trudng se edng bdng vd minh bgeh neu hoat ddng M&A duge thuc hien tten nguyen tic thoa thudn hoac thin thien. Ngugc lgi, tgi eac thi trudng ma quyen lgi eua cdc nhd ddu tu ciing nhu DN khdng dugc dam bdo bang ede quy djnh chat che, hogt dpng thdu tdm hoac thdn tinh DN dien ra rat thudng xuyen, gay ra nhihig inh hudng xdu den mdi trudng kinh doanh ciing nhu tdn hgi lpi ich eua todn nen kinh te.
- Trien vpng hay xu huong ciia thi trudng: Trien vgng/xu hudng cua thj trudng dugc dua ra tten co sd du doan, dg bdo tu nhirng dii lieu Ijch sii. Can cu vao khdi lugng, quy md giao dich, phdn bd khdi lugng vi gii tri theo chii the, nginh nghe, qudc gia mi cic dan vj tu van cd cii nhin ve trien vpng eiia thi trudng, d edp dp chung ciing nhu cap do chi tiet. Nhihig kit qua ndy khdng nhung phuc vu cho boat ddng dieu hinh kinh te vT md md cdn la dinh hudng eho DN mua/bin ttong mdt thuang vu mua bdn, sap nhap DN tiem nang.
2. Danh gia if cap do DN Viec dinh gii hoat ddng cua hogt dpng M&A d cap do DN dugc thuc hien qua hai cich. Cdch tbii nhat Id su dung sd lieu ke toin de phan tich v i danh gii su thay ddi ve hieu qua hogt ddng ciia DN trude vd sau khi M&A. Cich thii hai li sir dung sd lieu thi truong de ddnh gii tde ddng cua M&A den lpi ich eua eic chu sd hihi. Tic ddng cua boat ddng M&A ddi vdi DN can dugc ddnh gii thdng qua cic ehi tieu tai ehinh vi cic chi tieu phi tii chinh. Cic chi tieu tai ehinh dugc tinh todn tir cdc bao cio tii chinh cua DN. Cac chi tieu phi tdi chinh dugc the hien d cic bdo edo quan tri hoac bao cdo thudng nien eiia cdng ty, thdng qua viec xem xet su thay ddi ciia bd may quan tti DN, miic lucmg cua ngudi lao dpng, thi phan, mang ludi khach hing, mang ludi v i kenh phdn
phdi, quan he vdi nhd cung cdp, vd ttdch nhiem xa hdi eua DN.
2.1. Cdch tiep can tu sd li^u ke todn
Cich tiep can tir sd lieu ke toin six dung dii lieu tir bao cdo tii ehinh DN v i phin tich tii chinh DN de dinh gii su thay ddi vl hieu qui hogt ddng ciia DN trudc vi sau khi thuc hien M&A. Phdn tich tdi ehinh dugc thuc hien thdng qua tinh toin vi so sdnh cac nhdm ehi sd tii chinh cua DN sip nhip/DN mua va DN bi sdp nhap/DN muc tieu trudc vd sau khi thuang vu dugc thuc hien thanh cdng.
Cae bude tien hanh so sdiih, phan tich vi dinh gid hieu qui trudc v i sau khi thue hien thuang vu mua bdn, sap nhap gdm.
Danh gia tdng quan ve su thay ddi ngudn vdn tii sin, doanh thu, chi phi, lgi nhudn cua DN muc tieu/DN bi sip nhap hoac DN mua/DN sip nhap.
Tinh todn cdc nhdm hd sd tai ehinh, gdm: nhdm cdc chi tieu danh gia khi nang thanh toan;
nhdm cdc chi tieu dinh gii co cau ngudn vdn, tii sin; nhdm cic chi tieu dinh gid hieu qui hoat ddng eua tdi sdn, nhdm cdc chi tieu sinh ldi; nhdm cic chi tieu ddnh gid gid tri thi trudng.
Phdn tich tai chinh khdng chi Id ddnh gid cdc chi sd m i cdn li vipe so sinh, ddi chidu, vi dinh gia tten ba mat rieng biet.
Tung chi sd da thay ddi nhu the ndo theo thdi gian? Thdng tin niy cung edp cho cic nhi quin tti y nghia viee danh gid cac xu hudng ttong qui khir vi nhin nhdn xu hudng phit trien ciia DN.
Timg ehi sd khi so sanh vdi trung bmh nginh thi nhu the nao? Viec so sanh vdi con sd tmng binh nginh cd y nghia rdt quan ttong de xac djnh diem manh, diem yeu cua DN, tu dd dua ra nhimg dieu ehinh phii hgp.
_ Timg chi sd khi so sinh vai cac ddi thii cgnh ttanh thi nhu thi nao?
Thdng thudng thi canh ttanh giiia
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Nghidn ciAi trao ddi mdt sd ddi thii ttong mdt nganh hay mdt dia phuong khdc liet hon ttong todn ngdnh. Do dd, phdn tieh cdc chi sd tii chinh ndn bao gdm cd viec so sdnh timg chi sd vdi nhihig ddi thu canh ttanh tuang tu ttong nginh.
2.2. Cdch tiep cqn tic so lieu thj trudng
Cach tiep cgn tir sd lieu thi trudng sir dung phuang phip nghien cuu su kien de dinh gii xem thj trudng phin ling nhu the nao vdi tuyen bd cua DN khi tham gia vao hogt ddng M&A.
Phucmg phip nghien ciiu sir kien l i mdt phep thu nhdm do ludng tde ddng ve mat gii tri cua mdt su kien ciia cdng ty, chdng han nhu viec tuyen bd M&A thdng qua lam rd phdn ung cda gid ed phieu xung quanh ngiy myen bd su kien.
Gii dinh chinh eiia phuong phip nghien cuu su kien li thj trudng chimg khoin Id thi truong hodn hao. Dieu ndy cd nghia la gii cua cd phieu se phin limg nhanh vd ehinh xdc thdng tin mdi dugc dua ra. Phuang phip nghien cim tinh hudng dugc sir dyng de xem xet tac ddng cua nhihig chinh sach du kien, viee mua DN cd thi dnh hudng nhu the nio den gia tri ciia cdng ty thdng qua viec nghien ciiu nhimg su kien tuong tu ttong qud khii. Ngoii ra, phuang phap nay cdn dupe su dyng dl dinh gii xem nhihig su kien trudc dd tie dpng nhu the nio den gii trj cua cdng ty.
True thdi gian de nghien cuu mdt su kien dien hinh duge phan ehia nhu sau.
—^ M — \ \—
Khoing thai gian tir TO-Tl la khoing thai gian udc lugng. Day la khoang thdi gian dugc sir dung de xdc dinh hdnh vi thdng thudng eiia eac yeu td tren thi trudng chiing khoan. Thudng duge sir dung nhit l i md hinh thj trudng Rj.^a+p, Rm, de xic dinh hanh vi
thdng thudrng.
Khoing thdi gian tii TI-T2 Id khodng thdi gian xung quanh sir kien. Chiing ta sir dung du li^u d giai dogn niy, cung vdi ket qui ude lugng eua a v i p eiia mpt hoac nhieu chiing khodn de xac djnh:
Viec thdng bio su ki?n dugc chd dgi hay l i su rd ri
Hieu img sau khi thdng bdo, sau bao lau thi thdng tin ve sy kipn dugc hap thy vio thi trudng
Thdi diem 0 l i thdi diem dien ra su kien
Khodng thdi gian tir T2-T3 la khodng thdi gian sau su kien.
Khoing thai gian niy dugc su dung de xem xet hoat ddng cua cdng ty ttong ddi han sau khi xdy ra su kien.
De danh gii xem nhung hinh vi ciia cdng ty cd tic ddng nhu the ndo den lgi ich ciia cd ddng, phuang phip niy tinh toan ty sudt sinh ldi ciia ed phidu thyc sy ddng gdp vao tuyen bd ciia cdng ty (ab- normal retura-ty suit sinh ldi bdt thudng).
Ty suat sinh ldi bdt thudng = Ty suit sinh ldi thuc - ty suit sinh ldi ky vpng
Ty suit sinh ldi bit thudng cho mdt cd phidu thudng ciia cdng ty j vao ngay thii t la:
ARjr-R,t-(aj+p, R™0 He sd a va P l i he sd ude lugng eiia cdng ty j tir md hinh thi trudng.
Ty suit lgi nhuan bat thudng vao ngdy thu t
i v
Ty suat sinh lai bat thuang tich luy (CAR) til ngay TI dSn ngay T2 dugc tinh theo cong thuc sau:
K T2
j=i r i Ndi cich khdc, CAR chinh Ii tdng ciia Igi nhugn bdt thudng
ttong mdt giai dogn nhdt dinh xoay xung quanh su kien.
Kilm chiing gid thuyit "Sy ki?ii xiy ra lieu cd tic ddng thyc sy den gid cd philu cua edng ty?" de kiem dinh gii thuyet niy, gii tri thdng ke eiia phdn phdi Student dugc tinh toan theo cdng thiic: t = (Lpi nhudn bat thudng)/(Saisd chuan ciia ty suit sinh ldi). Theo do, vdi gia trj eua kiem dinh ldn hon 1,96, gia thuyet "su kien xay ra cd tic dpng thuc su den gid ed phieu cua cdng ty" dugc chap nhin d miic y nghTa didng kd 5%.
Ket luan
Cd the thdy, M&A Id hogt ddng tdt yeu ttong nen kinh te thj ttudng vd hdi nhap kinh t l qudc te. Vdn de dat ra l i lam thi ndo de hogt dpng ndy phdt huy dugc nhung tdc dpng tich euc, hgn ehe nhihig tic dpng tieu cue ddi vdi DN ndi rieng va nIn kinh td ndi chung. Vi vay, viec dinh gia diing thyc ttang v i dua ra gidi phdp de phit trien vi hoin thipn hoat ddng M&A d ViSt Nam trong giai doan tiep theo Id can thiet, ed y nghia c i ve ly luan va thyc tien. D
Tdi li^u tham khdo
1. Pfiuang phap GT (ground theory), khdi xudng bdi Glasser & Strauss (1967)
2. Phuang phap tinh hudng la phuang phip xay dung ly thuyet tU tinh huong. 6m hoac da tinh huong (Eisenhardtt, 1989.
Nguyen Dinh Tho. 2011)
3. Bruner (2004) torn tat bdn cacti (fe uSc luang khi nang sinh ldi cua M&A gom nghiBn cOu su kien (event study), nghien ciiu sd li$u ki toin (accounting study), Sieu tra gieim ddc diiu hknh. nghien ciiu phdng khim (clinical studies).
4. Diin dan M&A Vi$t Nam 2017: Tim budc dot phi (Bao cao thi tn/dng M&A Vidt Nam 2017 tai Diin dan M&A Viet Nam lan 9 ngiy 10/8/2017 tai TPHCM);
5. Diin din M&A Viet Nam 2018: BUdc ngoit mdi - Ky nguyBn mdi (Bao cio thi trudng M&A Viet Nam 2018 tai Dien din M&A ViSt Nam lin 10 tai TP HCM)
MiM ^a/t cAt f/ie todn tt- ff^etn todn so^ t/ui/^ Sl20iS
