CHflO MUNG 55 NfiM
T H A N HWP Bfii HOC KINH 16 QUOC D
TAI CAU TRUC THi TRITUNG TAI CHINH CUA VIET NAM:
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GS.TS. Pham Quang Trung Dgi hgc Kinh ti Qudc ddn
Trong bdi canh khimg hodng kinh fe todn cdu vd khiing hodng ng cimg & nhiiu nu&c, nen kinh ti Viel Nam dang phdi ddi mat vdi nhiiu vc~in di thdch thirc: lgm phdt cao. ly li that nghiep gia tdng. thi tnrcrng tdi chinh ccm nhieu hdt dn khd dir dodn. bien ddng ly gid vd thanh khoan sut giam,...Bdi viel ndy khdng phdn tich nhirng mat Ihdnh cc'mg vd ini diim md ddt trgng tdm viio viec giai quyit nhirng diim hem chi. hat cap vd thdch thirc ciia lhi tru&ng tdi ehinh & liel Nam.
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Nhirng thach thuc va bat cap chii yeu tren thi trurdng tai chinh Vict Nam hien nayTrong bdi cinh khimg hoang vi su\ thoai kinh te loan cau, Vift Nam di dat dugc nhung thinh tich rat kha quan trong \'ifc dn djnh kinh Id vT md, kiem soil Iam phat vi du\ tri tang trudng, dn djnh an sinh xa hdi. Ciing vdi mdt logt cic quydl sich ldn ciia Ding va Nhi nudc, Nghj quydl 11 cua Chinh phii da vi dang dugc thyc thi da mang ddn nhirng kdl qui thanh cdng budc diu. Tuy nhien, hifn tgi va trong vai nam trudc mat cdn rit nhieu thich thuc vi bit cap can dugc giii quydl.
Sire ep lgm phdt vd mat bdng ldi .sudt qud eao gdy ra nhiiu tdc dpng tiiu cue ddi v&i nin kinh ti
Thach Ihuc Idn nhat trong nim 2011 da dugc xac djnh Ii Igm phit, do dd Nghj quylt sd 11 /NQ-CP ngay 24/02/2011 ciia Chinh phii "Ve nhimg gidi phdp ehu yiu tap trung kiim ehi lgm phdt, dn dinh
kinh ti vTmd, bdo ddm an sinh xd hpi" da dgt nhifm vu chdng lgm phit li uu lien hing diu trong cic nhifm vy cin giii quydt. Den thai diem hifn nay, thing 10/2011, mac dii tinh hinh lam phit dang cd dau hifu dju di v i cic lifu phip chinh sich vT md bat diu cd hifu qui, nhung ty If Iam phit ci nim 2011 se vin rat cao.
Theo dy bio cua Ngin hing Phit triln chiu A (ADB), lgm phit trung binh c i nam 2011 cua Vift Nam se d muc 18,7%, mirc cao ciia Ihl gidi- Day Ii nhan djnh trong bio cio cap nhat Triin vgng phdt
triin ehau A 2011 lai Ha Ndi vao chieu 14/9/2011.
ADB dy bao tang Inrdng GDP ciia Vift Nam nam 2011 se dat khoang 6,1% (trirdc dd vio cudi nam 2010, ADB dy bao kha quan hon vdi ty If tang GDP la 7%). Do tie ddng ciia lam phat den cac chinh sach lien tf, tai khda vi diu tu trong bdi canh khung hoing ng cdng tren the gidi, cic chuyen gia cua Ngin hing ANZ dy bio lang Inrdng GDP cua Vift Nam nam 2011 se chi dat khoing 5,9% vi dgt khoing 7% trong nam 2012. Mdl sd y kien dy bio ring Iam phit nam 2011 se vao khoing lu 18% den 20% vi tdc do ling trudng GDP dy bio se dat khoing lu 5,9% den 6%, tuong duong vdi myc lieu cua Chinh phii.
Tinh hinh Iai suit cao qui cao vi khd khan ve vdn cdng them cic khd khan khic da day nhieu doanh nghifp den linh trgng thua Id ngng ne vi cd nguy co phi sin. Theo sd lifu thdng kd tu Cue phit tridn doanh nghifp, Bd Kd hoach vi Diu tu, tinh den thing 9/2011 da cd khoang 48.700 doanh nghifp ngung hogt ddng hoic phai giii thd, ling gin 22%
so vdi nim 2010. Nhilu doanh nghifp co ging lim ngudn von vi diu ra cho sin pham de hogt ddng
"cim cy", nhung chi phi vay vdn tang cao bat thudng so vdi nam trudc, din ldi tinh trgng giim sut lgi nhuin hoac Id ning. Qua xem xet bag.cao tai chinh 6 thing vi 9 thing dau nam ciia nhilu cdng ty niem yll trdn hai Sd giao djch chirng khoan HSX va HNX cung cho thiy buc Iranh lgi nhuan nhieu mau xim! Tuy nhien, rit may la trong boi canh dd van cd
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HAT TRIGN BGN VUNG NGN KINH TG VIGT NAM 2011-2020
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N'Liudn long eye Thdng kc, C 2011) nhung cdng ly hogt dgng tdt vi cd hieu qui khi caotrong didu kifn da\ thach thirc.
Thanh khocm cua he thdng Idi chinh - ngdn himg chira dimg nhiiu rui ro, trong dd mdt sd ngin hing thuong mgi (NHTM) nhd vi cic cdng ty chimg khoin gap nhieu khd khin trong cin ddi lii chinh;
rid ro ng xdu gia tdng ding bio ddng.
Ng xiu gia ling vi nguy ca liem an ngiy cing Idn ddi vdi nhieu mdn ng khd ddi. Theo TS. Ld Xuin NghTa, hifn nay "ng xiu trong hf thdng ngin hing lang cao, gin nhu khdng cd cich nio giim dugc vi ndu chiing ta khdng kidn quydt tii ciu triic, se inh hudng lieu cyc den c i nin kinh ll" Theo so lifu ciia Ngin hing Nhi nudc (NHNN), ly If ng xiu loin nginh ngin hing vio thdi dilm thing 8-2011 Ii 3,1%, ling so vdi muc 2,16% vio cuoi nim 2010 vi cd khi nang Idn ldi 5% vio cudi nam 2011.
Ddi vdi nhdm ngin hing thuang mgi nhi nudc, ng xiu ting 66,18%; nhdm cic ngin hang co phin cd ng xiu tang 44,29%; nhdm ngin hing lidn doanh, 100% vdn nudc ngoii cd ng xiu ting 59,23% so vdi cudi 2010. Dd Ii chua tinh din mgt lugng Idn vdn ciia to chuc tin dung diu lu vio trii phidu doanh nghifp nhung chua dugc dinh gii vi trich lap dy phdng day du dang tilm in nii ro doi vdi hoat ddng ciia cac to chuc tin dyng'
NIU theo tidu chuin kl toin Vift nam (VAS) v i theo phuong phap tinh toin ciia Vift Nam thi Ngin hing Nhi nudc cho ring, ty If ng xiu 3,1% vin d muc an toin vi kilm soit dugc, nhung cic nha chuyen mdn so sanh theo chuin quoc ll (IAS) lhi ty If ng xiu ciia cac ngan hing Vift Nam Idn tdi 13%
tdng du ng vi dd la mdt mirc do ding bao ddng! Tat nhidn, xung quanh cic y kiln niy cdn cd sy khac nhau ve cic tidu chi phin logi ng vi dinh gii ng xau cua ngin hing thuang mgi. Trdn thyc Id, Ngin hang Nhi nudc da ban hinh Quylt djnh 493/2005 quy djnh vl vifc phin logi ng, trong dd bao gdm ei phan logi theo djnh lugng (didu 6) vi djnb tinh (didu 7) nhirng chi cd mgt vii ngin bing Idn nhu Agribank, Vietcombank, BIDV thyc hifn vifc phan logi ng theo djnh tinh. Mdt sd ngin hing thuang mai chua xiy dirng dugc hf thdng .xdp hang tin dung ndi bp thyc sy lien tien dd ip dyng phuong phip phin loai niy. Bin thin Quydt djnh 493 cung cin duge siira ddi, hoin chinh de ip dyng tdt hon trong thyc te.
Ben cgnh cic inh hirdng tidu cyc ciia lii suit cao doi vdi hf thdng ngin hing, mdt nguy ea vi riii ro dcio dire cung trd ndn hifn buu ngay chinh trong nginh ngin hang- nai phii dugc coi li ludn coi trgng tin nhifm, Idng tin vi dao dire nghd nghifp.
Vdi cic vy vifc vd Id vd "vugl trin lai suit", ve
"mgc ci lai suit".... da lim xiu di hinb inh ciia mpt sd ngin hing. Day li nhirng tic hgi mi hf luy xau cd the keo dii trong hf thdng.
Ty gid ngogi hdi biin dpng mgnh vd kho dyr dodn,, gid vdng ed ddu hiiu bi ddu ca "thodt ly" vai gid giao dich tren thi tru&ng vdng the gi&i. Trong 2 quy dau nim 2011, thj trudng ngogi hdi bien dpng mgnh vi gay tic dgng "cgng hudng" doi vdi tam Iy lgm phit. Mgt sd giii phip cip bich, binh dn ty gia Ngin hing Nhi nudc thyc hifn d i thu dugc ket qua budc diu. NHNN cung cam kll gid dn djnh.ty gia ddn hit nim 2011, nhung gidi ngan hing cho rang bidn ddng ty gii trong Quy 4 se khdng hd dan gian.
102 Kinhty^haltri
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CHAD MUNG 55 NAM THANH W DAI HOC KINH TG QUOC D F I ^
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Hay quan sit bieu do ciia ADB so sinh t> gii ciia 10 ddng ngogi tf vdi USD nhu dudi diy.
Nhirng sd lifu minh hga trdn Bidu dd 2 phin inh ro sy mit gii mgnh cua ddng ndi If (VND) trong nira diu nam 2011.
Hi thdng ede cdng ty chimg khodn ed qud nhiiu cong ty trong khi quy md eua lhi Inr&ng rdt hgn ehi
Trong gin 4 nam qua (2008-2011), sau mdt thdi gian lang irudng ndng, thj trudng chung khoin di di vao giai dogn suy thoii v i hifn nay vin dang trong tinh trgng rit am dgm. Chi sd ldng tin trdn thj trudng CO le dang d muc thip ky lyc trong sudl Ijch su 11 nam phit tridn ciia thj trudng chung khoin Vift Nam. Dd li do nhidu nguydn nhin khic nhau, nhung xet dudi giic do bf thong lhi cin phii tii ca cau cac cdng ty chung khoin v i cic chii the tham gia thj trudng.
Tinh din thdi dilm thing 7/2011, da cd tdi 61 trong so 105 cdng ty chung khoin Id luy kl trong Quy I v i Quy 11/2011, so vdi con sd 20 cdng ty
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chung khoin thua Id trong nam 2010. Mdt sd cic cdng ly khic khdng Id nhung Igi nhuin cung rat thip. Ngay ca SSI - mdl trong nhung cdng ty chirng khoin Idn nhat vi cd uy lin cung da Id liiy ke gin 13 ty ddng trong 9 thing diu nam 2011. Mdl cdng ty khi ldn khic li Cdng ly Cd phin Chung khoin Bao Vift (BVS) cung bio cio Id luy ke 3 quy nam 2011 li khoing 66 ty ddng. Vdi 105 cdng ty chirng khoan trong mdl thj trudng hgn hep nhu hifn nay lhi vifc tdn tgi vi cd lgi nhuin Ii mdt thich thirc qui sire chju dyng. Ndu so sinh vdi quy md ciia cic thj trirdng trong khu vyc thi Vift Nam chi nen ldn lgi 30 ddn 40 cdng ly, didu dd cd nghTa Ii cin cd sy thanh Igc mgnh me thdng qua M&A hoic phi sin cic cdng ly chung khoan yeu kem.
Khu vue doanh nghiip nhd nir&e (DNNN), cdc tap dodn kinh ti vd tdng cdng ty nhd mrdc hogt dpng kem hiiu qua; mdl sd tap doin kinh te thua Id va cd vin de vd lii chinh. Dieu nay thi da cd nhieu bao cao kinh tl v i cic y kiln quan ngai. Trudng hgp khiing
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V O N GNGN KINH TG VIGT NAM 2011-2020
hoing lii chinh ciia Tap doan Vinashin Ii mgt vi dy minh hga rd rang, canh bao sy can thiet phii nhanh chdng tai ca ciu cac tap doan kinh tl nhi nirdc va cic tdng cdng \y qudc doanh.
Chi lieu cdng cdn nhiiu ldng phi. hl('u ipia ddu lir cdng cdn thdp. nhiiu cdng Irinh ddu tir chain phdt huy hiiu qua kinh le xd hdi, thiim chi lang phi Idn ngudn lyc ciia Nha nudc \a ciia nhan dan. Trong thdi gian \ ira qua, ngudn \ on tai chinh cdng di dugc diu tu cho nhieu eong irinh, dy an \ e ea sd ha lang, giao thdng, thiiy dien, khu cdng nghiep, khu che xuat \ il cac cdng trinh cdng cpng. Mdl sd cdng trinh, dy iin dau tu da phiil hu> lot hifu qua hoat ddng nhung cdn rat nhieu cdng trinh ed chal hrgng thap, hifu qua kem. khdng dugc khai iliac, sir dyng mgt each cd hieu qui.
II. Muc ticu CO tinh dinh hudng de tai co' cau he thong tai chinh Vift Nam trong giai doan trudc mat
Vifc xic djnh id nhiing myc lieu cd tinh djnh hudng cd mdt y nghTa quan trpng, giiip tri ldi ciu hdi: Trgng thii can dgt ldi ciia qui trinh tii ca ciu li gi? Vifc .xic djnh chinh xac cic myc tieu djnh lugng Ii het sue phirc tap vi cin cd nghien cuu thyc sy diy du. Tuy nhien, cac myc lieu djnh tinh cung cd y nghTa rit quan trgng.
Muc tieu bao triim cdn hu&ng t&i Id: Hf thdng tii chinh vi thj trudng tai chinh cin phit trien on djnh, linh manh, hifu qui; lao dieu kifn tang trudng kinh te ben vung, dam bio cic can ddi tich cyc trong nin kinh te, dn djnh vi cii thifn an sinh xa hdi, thiic diy qui trinh hdi nhip qudc Id.
Thir nhdt: Cin xay dung dugc hf thong NHTM vung mgnh, dn djnh, hogt ddng Iinh mgnh, dgt trinh do phat trien lien lien vi muc do riii ro thip.
Thic hai: Mat bing Iai suit liln gui vi Iai suit cho vay dugc kiem soit vi didu chinh hgp ly vi dn djnh;
Cin phyc hdi Igi dudng cong lai suit theo dimg quy luil kinh te.
Thu ba: Ty gii ngogi hoi, die bift Ii ty gii giira VND vi USD dugc kilm soil trong bidn dg gidi hgn hgp Iy, tdn trgng quy luit thj Irudng nhung cd sy can thifp kjp thdi khi cin thilt.
Thir tw. Thj trudng von, die bift li thj trudng chung khoan - phit triln cin doi, dn djnh, minh bgch vi virng chic, gdp phin lao nguon lyc tii chinh de phit tridn kinh Id.
Thir ndm: Thj trudng ving - mdt thj trudng die
bift nhgy cim cin dugc td chuc tdt va dugc kidm soil hgp ly, tgo sy lidn thdng giua thi trudng vang trong nudc va Ihj tnrdng ving quoc te. Cin hinh thinh lu duy mdi, lu duy thj trudng trong vifc to chuc Igi vi kilm soil thj trudng ving, giim din cac bifn phap can ihifp thuin tiiy hanh chinh vao thj trudng niy.
III. Mgt so kien nghj vagiiii phap tai cc cau thj trudng tii chfnh d Vift Nam hifn nay
Giii phip kilm soit Iai sual can dugc tidp lyc duy tri, thi hinh mgt cich nhat quin, cd hf thdng trong dieu kien thj tnrdng khdng binh thudng vi Igm phal dang d mirc cao. Tuy nhidn, can thdng nhit trong nhgn thirc vi hinh dgng Ii: Bifn phip kidm soit lai sual Iran 14% chi Ii giii phip hinh chinh trong thdi gian tnrdc mil, mang tinh chit ngan hgn, tgm thdi.
Cdng cy hinh chinh nay se dugc dd bd vi can ton trgng quy luit trdn thj trirdng khi ndn kinh te trong nudc vi quoc tl dn djnh trd Igi vi hogt ddng binh thirdng.
Cin chu trgng cic giii phip tim ly, thdng tin va truydn thdng nham hgn chd tic ddng thii qui ciia
"lgm phit ky vgng" Tren the gidi vi trong cac thj trudng khic nhau ludn cd cac tic ddng lim ly lien quan ddn cic phin irng ciia nhi diu tu, ngudi tieu diing vi cic chii the kinh doanh. Nhimg d nudc la, do die diem xa bdi \ i tip quin ndn cic tic ddng
"tim ly" hay "ba> din" cdn thd hifn rd net han, mgnh me hon d cic qudc gia khic. Chinh phu can thyc hifn chuang trinh cy the \ e truyen thdng, djnh hudng tim ly, chdng Igm phit thdng qua bio chi, dai phal thanh vi truyin binb. Truyin thdng tdt cdn gdp phin Cling co Idng lin trdn thj trudng vi trong xa hgi, tgo ra sy dong thuin trong vide thyc hifn cac giii phip ciia Chinb phu.
Ddi vdi thj Irudng chung khoin, cin cd chinh sich va bifn phip ddng bd dd tgo dyng nidm tin ddi vdi thj tnrdng. Qua giai dogn 2008 -2011, do nhilu nguydn nhin ndn thj trirdng thilu minh bgch, qua nhidu vy lim gii, vi pham vl tbdng tin, bio cao-tai chinh khdng nghieni tuc,... da lim sdi mdn nghieni trgng nidm tin ciia nhi diu tu v i cua ngudi dan vao thj trudng chung khoin. Thj trudng cdn cin dugc bo sung sdm nhilu quy djnb phip luit va did dp kiem soit thyc sy lin cay. Uy ban Chung khoin Nhi nudc v i Bg Tii chinh cin cd nhung cdng cy cd hifu luc ban va hinh dgng kjp thdi ban dh theo kjp nhiing didn biln rat mau le tren thj trudng chung khoan.
Co chl giao djch T+3 da qui lac hau cin phai dugc 104
CHAO MUNG 55 NAM THANH LAP DAI HOC KINH TG QUOC D^^
thay ddi, ndn ip dyng T+1 hoic T+0, hoic nhirng ving dy trir cin thilt phii hgp, ciing vdi du trir ngoai cil lien vd tbanh toin bii tru dd tang thanh khoin hoi dl dim bio an toin tii chfnh quoc gia.
cho thj trudng, tang tinb linh hoat v i tfnh bio dan r\A: '• i -> ..u^ -> • , . . <
, ' &' 6 • '^ '"iP "'in Doi VOI he thong ngan hing thuang mgi, cin cd chfnh sich khuyin khfch cic hogt ddng M&A (mua Cic cdng ty chung khoin chic chin se tilp tyc bin, sip nhip) dl hinh thinh nhirng ngan hing Idn dugc sing Igc mdt cich ty nhidn tbdng qua cgnh mgnh ban, thanh Igc bdt cic ngin hing qui nhd be tranh, cudi cimg se chi cdn lgi khoing 30-40 cdng ty vi ylu vl ning lyc cgnh tranh. Hiu hit cic NHTM chung khoin cd thd hogt dgng ben vung trdn thj diu can dugc tilp tyc Id trinh ting von dilu If dl cd frudng. Cin tidp tyc hoin thifn cic quy djnh chi tilt Ihl dgt quy md trung binh trong khu vyc. Muc tidu han, tgo thuin lgi vl nghifp vu cho cic thuong vy trudc mil cd Ihl thyc hifn ddi vdi cic NHTM co sap nhip, mua bin (M&A) doi vdi cic cdng ty phin li dgt muc vdn dilu If ldi thilu tu 4000 din chung khoin. Dilu dd se gdp phan hinh thinh mgt 5000 ty dong vio cuoi nim 2012^ Tuy nhidn, khdng thj trudng chung khoin linh manh, dn djnh vdi cic ndn qui ndng vdi trong vifc diy mgnh lang von dilu cdng ly thinh vidn cd hifu qui hogt ddng cao, cd dii If bing mgi gii, vi dilu dd cd Ihl giy ra nhilu hifu nang lyc tii chfnh, ning lyc quin trj vi nang lyc ""ng lieu cyc doi vdi thj Irudng chung khoin vi giy canh tranh trdn thj trudng. ra sue dp qui sue chiu dyng cua mdi ngin hing.
Can sdm thyc bifn giii phip tdng thi doi vdi thj Cin tang cudng quin trj riii ro trong cic ngin trudng ving, trong dd tgo sy lidn thdng, thdng suot hing thuong mgi vi trong cic cdng ty chung khoin, giua thj trudng ving trong nudc vi thj trudng ving cdng ly tii chinh. Tu nhirng bii hgc rut ra qua giai quoc ll. Cic bifn phip hinh chfnh cyc doan (nhu <^o^n khiing hoing lii chinh, quin trj riii ro da dugc cim mua bin) cin sdm dugc thay thi bing nhung coi li mdl trong nhung nhin td quan trgng bic nhit bifn phip mang tfnh thj trudng, tdn trgng cic quy ^O' ^di cic djnh che tii chfnh. Han nua, trong nginh lual kinh tl. Ngan bing Nhi nudc cin quan tim "g^n hing, nai hdi ty cic rui ro cua nin kinh tl vi cd nhilu han din thj trudng ving vi diy li thj tnrdng ^^^ tfnh "lan truyin" rit mgnh, cho ndn cin chu ddng cua mdt mat hing die bift nhay cim vi cd inh ngin chin cic rui ro phi sin, ban chl rui ro hf thdng.
hudng Idn ddn "lam phit tam ly" Mac dii ving Quin tri rui ro trong cic NHTM cin hudng trpng khdng phii li hing tidu diing bing ngiy nhung nlu tim trudc mat vio cic khoin ng xiu, ng cd nguy co chiing ta khdng kilm soit dugc nhirng con sdt ving cao. Phii theo ddi sit didn bidn cic mdn ng cd diu lhi tic dgng cua nd ddi vdi mat bing gii vi chi so hifu xiu dd cd cic bifn phip phii hgp vi ngin ngua lam phit li khdng nhd. Cin sdm binb thinh sin giao sy lan rdng cua ng xiu trong lung ngin hing.
djch ving chinh thdng, dugc quin ly chuydn nghifp. Da dgng hda dy tru ngogi hdi, giim bdt muc do hoat ddng linb manh; gdp phin vio sy cin bing gii phy thudc qui ldn vio ddng ddla My. Trong giao vang trong nudc vdi gii ving qudc tl. Dh thj trudng djch vi tbanh toin qudc tl ndn khuyin khich cic vang vi sin giao djch ving hogt ddng linh mgnh, dn ngin hing vi doanb nghifp hudng sang vifc da dinh, an toin thi cin xiy dyng Nghj djnh vi Quy dang hda ngogi hdi vi chu ddng hgn chd rui ro ty che vd giao djch ving. Ndn khuydn khich ngan hing gii. De lim dugc didu niy, ddi vdi khi nang tii Ihuong mgi vi ngudi dan giii phdng lugng ving chinh hifn nay cua Vift Nam thi khdng phii li vife tieh trd, dua vio luu thdng tao ngudn vdn thiic diy dd ding. Tuy nhidn, Ngin bing Nhi nudc cin cd sin xuat kinh doanh phit tridn. Bdn cgnh dd, Ngin chidn luge vi Ig trinh de tii ca ciu danh myc dir trir hang Nhi nudc cung cin tinh toin cbii dgng lugng ngogi hoi qudc gia, bao gom ci dy tru ving.d
1. Dien dan Kinh tl Vift Nam vi TBKTSG, ngay 04-10-2011. (Hdng Phiic)
2. Mft sl NHTM hifn nay c6 sl vln dilu If nho dudi 4000 ty ding nhu: PG Bank (2000 ty ding), Vift A Bank (2936 ty ding), Ngan hang TMCP Df Nhit (3000 ty ding) cin phai sdm tang vln dilu If theo 16 trinh.
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Bao cao ciia Tdng cue Thing ke, thing 9/2011.
2. Diln dan Kinh tl Vift Nam va TBKTSG, ngiy 04-10-2011.
3. Triln vpng phat triln chau A 2011 eua Ngin hang Phat triln Chau A (ADB), 7/2011.
Ifinh ^nDhoHmAn 105
