Mo'i quan he giu'a tieu dung dien va tang tru'dng kinh te:
Nghien cu'u tru'dng hdp TP. Ho Chl Minh
N G a v e n VAN T R A I ' NGUYEN V A N T H A N G "
Tom tat
Nghien cdu xem xel moi tuang quan kinh ti'gida tdng trudng kinh te vd liiu thu diin ndng tgi TP. Ho Chi Minh trong ngan hgn vd ddi hgn vdi dd lieu thu thdp ve sdn luang dien ndng tiiu thu, tdng trudng kinh te cua Thdnh phd trong giai dogn 2005-2018 vd duac udc luang bdng mo hinh hieu chinh sai so ECM. Kit qud nghiin cdu cho thdy, trong ddi hgn, sdn lugng diin tiiu thu CO tdc dgng tich ciXc de'n tdng trudng kinh ti'Thdnh phd vd trong ngdn han, sdn luang diin ndng tieu thu tgi tre 1 (sdn luang dien ndm trudc} co tdc dong di'n tdng trudng kinh te nam hien tai Bdi vie't cdn tii'n hdnh du bdo trong ngdn han tdc do tdng cda sdn luang diin tiiu thu vd tdng irudng kinh li' cua Thdnh phd nhdm cung cdp thong tin cho cdc nhd qudn ly khi xdy dung kich bdn tang trudng kinh te cda Thdnh phd thdi gian tdi.
lit khoa: tdng trudng kinh td, tiiu thu diin ndng, TP. Ho Chi Minh Summary
This study examines the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Ho Chl Minh City in the short and long term with data collected in the period 2005- 2018 and estimated by error correction model. The output illustrates that, in the long run, electricity consumption has a positive impact on economic growth and in the short term, electricity consumption at latency 1 (electricity output of the previous year) creates an influence on economic growth in the current year Also, the paper makes short-term forecasts about the growth rale of electricity consumption and economic growth of the City in order to provide managers information to develop the City's economic growth scenario in the coming time.
Keywords: economic growth, electricity consumption. Ho Chi Minh City
G\6\ THIEU te' bang md binb kinh te Irfdng. Tuy nbien, vSn cdn nhicu danh gia khac nhau ve md'i quan he nay. Tai Qua trinh phat trien kinh te ludn Viet Nam, nhtfng nam gan day, da cd nhffng nghien gan bd mat thie't vdi ye'u tdnang Itfdng, crfu danh gia ve md'i quan he gitfa tang trtfdng va trong dd dien nang tieu tbu ddng gdp vai tieu dung dien cua cac ntfdc khu vrfc Asean, trong dd tro tich crfc trong qua trinh dd thi hda, cd Viet Nam bang boi quy dtf lieu bang. Song, rat it cdng nghiep hda ciia cac qud'c gia, cua nghien ctfu danh gia md'i quan he gitfa tieu diing dien vung kinh te' hay cua mdt dia phrfdng. va tang trrfdng kinh te d ca'p dia phrfdng tren cd sd dtf Tren the' gidi da cd nhieu nghidn ctfu lieu chudi thdi gian.
thtfc nghiem chtfng minh mdi quan he Do vay, nghien ctfu nay thtfc hien nham danh gia gitfa tieu dung dien va tang trtfdng kinh tac ddng cua ye'u td nang Itfdng de'n tang trtfdng tdng
"Trtfdng Dai hoc Kinh te TP. Ho Chi Minh
" C u e Tho'ng ke TP, H6 Chi Minh
Ngdy nhdn bdi. 26/09/2019; Ngdy phdn bien: 10/10/2019; Ngdy duyel ddng: 18/10/2019
Economy anti Forcwsi Review /
san pbam tao ra tren dia ban TP. Ho Cbi Minh (GRDP).
Qua dd, cung ca'p cac bang chtfng thtfc nghiem ve md'i quan be gitfa tieu diing dien, tang trtfdng GRDP phuc vu cho cdng tac xay dtfng ke' hoach, xay dtfng kich ban tang trtfdng cua Thanh phd trong nam 2019 va nhtfng nam tie'p theo.
CO sd LY THUYET VA P H U O N G PHAP NGHIEN CL/U
Casd ly thuyet
Jacobo. C va Viviana. S (2013) nghien ctfu md'i quan hd giffa tang trtfdng kinh te (GDP) va tieu dung nang Irfdng cua 10 qud'c gia chau My La Tinh (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela) trong giai doan 1971-2007. Nghien ctfu tie'n hanh \i6c Irfdng be so' gdc (do dd'c) cua md hinh hdi quy bang nhSm xac dinh md'i quan be ngan ban va dai han trfdng quan gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te' va tieu dung dien. Ke't qua nghien ctfu cho tha'y, tdn tai quan he nhan qua (hai htfdng) ve tang trtfdng kmh te'tac dgng dd'n dien nang tieu thu va ngrfdc lai.
Wen. C. L (2016) da tim kie'm bang chtfng thtfc nghiem ve md'i quan he tieu dCing dien vdi tang trtfdng kinh te'cua 17 nganh cdng ngbiep tai Dai Loan.
Nghien ctfu da tie'n hanb thu thap dff beu ve td'c do tang trtfdng va dien nang tieu thu ttf 17 nganh cdng nghiep trong giai doan 1998-2014. Tac gia tie'n hanh kidm dinb Granger nham xac dinb quan he nhan quS gitfa tieu diing dien va tang trtfdng kmh te'. Ket qua kiem dinh cbo tha'y, tdn tai quan he nban qua 2 chilu gitfa tang trrfdng kinhte'va dien nang tieu thu, nghia la dien nang drfdc xem la dau vao, la ddng Itfc cho tang trtfdng san xua't cdng ngbiep va viec gia tang kinh te' se lam ddng Irfc cbo tieu diing nang Irfdng dien. Ke't qua chl ra rang, khi tieu diing dien tang 1%, thi tang trrfdng kinh te cua 17 nganh cdng nghiep tai Dai Loan tang 1,72%.
Stjepanovic. S (2017) da nghien ctfu ve md'i quan he gitfa tang trrfdng kinh te va tieu dung dien cua 30 qud'c gia chau Au. Nghien ctfu stf dung phtfdng phap phan tich hoi quy dff heu bang vdi cac bid'n GD? va tieu diing nang Itfdng ttf cac ngudn nang Itfdng cd sSn cua 30 qud'c gia chau Au trong giai doan 1994-2_016 tff dff heu Lidn minh chau Au va Thd'ng ke chau Au. Ke't qua nghien ctfu cho tha'y, dd'i vdi cac qud'c gia phat trie'n, tbi khdng tdn tai mdi quan he gitfa tieu dung nang Itfdng va tang rftfdng kinh te'. Ngtfdc lai, cac qud'c gia dang phat tridn la nhffng qud'c gia trong qua trtnh chuyen doi ludn tdn tai md'i quan he chat che giffa tang trrfdng kmh te' va mtfc tieu dung nang Irfdng; Cu thi, khi tieu dting nang Itfdng tang 1 ddn vi, thi GDP tang 2,06 ddn vi.
Tai Viet Nam, nhieu nghidn ctfu ve md'i trfdng quan gitfa tang trrfdng kinh te va dien nang lieu thu da drfdc thrfe hien, nhrf;
Tran Thi Mai (2015) danh gia md'i quan he nhan qua giffa san Itfdng dien tieu thu va tang trtfdng kinh te
cua cac ntfdc Asean ttf dtf heu bang dtfdc thu thap cua 6 ntfdc Asean (Singapore, Maylaysia, Indonesia, Thai Lan, •£
Nam va Philippines) trong giai aoj"
1995-2014. Ke't qua nghien ctfu cho thay, tdn tai mdi quan he mgt chieu gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te va neu dung di?n cua cac qud'c gia Asean. Theo do, san Itfdng tieu diing binh quan dau ngtfdi co tac ddng trrfc tiep de'n tang trtfdngOUP binb quan dau ngtfdi cua cac quoc gia Asean ndi tren.
Dinh Thi Thu Hong va cdng stf (2017) trong nghien ctfu rad'i quan he nhan qua gitfa tidu diing dien nang, dau ttf trtfc tie'p ntfdc ngoai va tang trtfdng kinh le cua Viet Nam da stf dung phtfdng phap tfdc Itfdng bang md hinh ARDL. Nghien ctfu thu thap dtf Heu thdi gian ve dien nang tieu thu, tdng vdn dau ttf FDI va GDP cua Viet Nam trong giai doan 1986-2014. Ke't qua kiem dinb Granger cbo tha'y. tdn tai ttfdng quan nhan qua 1 chieu ve mdi quan he FDI, tieu thu dien nang cd tac ddng manh de'n tang trtfdng kinh te Viet Nam trong giai doan 1986-2014.
Nguyen Quye't va Via Qud'c Khanh (2014) da xem xet md'i quan he gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te' va tieu thu dien nang thtfc tiln tai Viet Nam thdng qua cic bie'n nghien ctfu, nhtf: tieu thu dien nang (EC), dau ttf ntfdc ngoai trtfc tie'p (FDI) va vd'n dau ttf (K) tdi GDP binh quan diu ngtfdi tai Viet Nam Nghien ctfu lien hanh thu thap diJ lieu trong giai doan 1993-2013 va phan tich tac dgng bang md hinh VECM. Ket qua nghie n ctfu cho tha'y, trong dai han, san Irfdng tieu thu dien nang. FDI va'vd'n dau Itf la nhffng nhan id cich ctfc de'n tang trtfdng kinh te Viet Nam.Trona ngan han: tieu thu dien, vdn dau ttf cd tac ddng tich ctfc de'n tang trtfdno GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi tai Viet^Nam neng FDI khdng cd bang chtfng thdn"
ke ve mdi ttfdng quan trong ng^n han vdi iang trtfdng kinh te.
Phuangphdp nghien ciiu Tren cdsdke'ihffa cac nghien ctfu trtfdc day va tinh kha thi trong dtf lign thu thap, nghien ctfu d^ ^ua't md hinh rfdc Irfdng hdi quy ddn bie'n co ban sn„-
Trong do: •
Y la bien dai dien clio yeu to' a,™
In/cJng: '&
X la bien dai dien cho ye'u to niing [^g^^
8
Drfa trdn md hmh tdng qudt (1) va tfng dung thrfe nghidm, nghidn ctfu xay drfng md hinb cu the sau;
LnGRDP = pj + p,. InEC + e (2) Trong do:
LnGRDP la logarit tdng san pham tren dia ban TP. Ho Chi Minh theo gia so sanh nam 2010;
LnEC la logarit tdng khd'i Itfdng dien nang tieu thu tren dia ban TP. Ho Chi Minh hang nam.
Nham danh gia tac dgng cua tidu dung dien nang de'n tang trrfdng kinh te cua TP.
Hd Chi Minh, nghien cita stf dung phtfdng phap tfdc Irfdng binh phtfdng nhd nha't OLS (Ordinary Least Square).
KET qUA NGHIEN CLfU VA THAO LUAN
Mo td dff lieu nghien ciiu Theo sd' lieu Cue Thd'ng ke TP. Hd Chi Minh, nam 2018, tang trtfdng kinh te' Thanh phd dat 8,29% so cung ky 2017.
Trong giai doan 2006-2010, tang trtfdng kinh te' Thanh phd' cd nhffng bie'n ddng ldn do anh htfdng ttf cugc khung hoang kinh td' the' gidi vit binh quan trong giai doan nay tang trtfdng dat mtfc 8,24%/
nam, Trong giai doan tid'p theo 2011- 2015, lang trtfdng kinh te' bat dau phuc hdi va duy tri d mtfc 7,23%/nam. Dd'n giai doan 2016-2018, tang trtfdng Thanh phd' tie'p tuc tang trtfdng binh quan 8,07% nam.
Trong khi dd, san Itfdng tieu dung dien cua Thanh phd' tie'p tuc duy tri d mtfc cao. Trong nam 2018, san Irfdng didn tidu thu tren dia ban Thanh pbd' dat 24,1 ty Kwh, trong do; khu vtfc san xua't stf dung chie'm 54,1%, tieu dung dan ctf chie'm 39,9% va tidu diing khac chie'm 6,0%. Trong giai doan 2006- 2010, binb quan mdi nam san Itfdng tieu dung cua Thanh phd' tang 8,1%, nhtfng de'n giai doan 2011-2015, san Itfdng dien tieu thu chi tang binh quan 5,05%/nam va trong giai doan 2016- 2018, san Itfdng didn tieu thu da tang len mtfc 7,17%/nam.
Mo'i tUOng quan cdc Men nghien cdu Mdi quan he gitfa san Itfdng dien lieu thu va tang trtfdng kinh td cua Thanh phd cd the dtfdc md phdng qua dd thi phan tan nhtf Bieu do.
Bieu do cho tha'y, giffa san Itfdng dien tieu thu va tang trtfdng kinh te cd mdi quan he tuyen tinh va md'i quan he
BIEG DO: TtTdNG QOAN GIQA S A N LCTCiMG DIEM TIEU THG VA QGY MO GRDP
M'i
J.-! ^^ \ .
SAN tUONG DIEN HEU THU-TWEU KWH
Nguon Tong hdp US 6(S liSu cua nhom tac gia
BAMG 1: PHAN TICH TfTOMG QGAN GICfA 2 BIEN Bien so
LnGRDP LnEC
GDP 1 0,9978*^*
EC
1
*, **, *** tuang dng vdi mdc y nghia 10%, 5% vd 1%
BAMG 2: ddC Ltl0NG XU THE CAC BIEN VA HE SO CHAN CAC BIEM Bid'n phu ttiuOc
Bie'n hoi quy C T
LnGRDP He so 12.78858 0,073681
Thong kc T (P-value) 2.'?96,260***
117,5532***
Bid'n phu thu^c Bien hoi quy
C T
LnEC He so
9.1497 0.068486
Thong ke T (P-value) 764,956***
48,75266*=^*
* *^ '••••^* iifcfng dng vdl mdc y nghTa 10%. 5% vd 1%
nay la ra't chat che. De kiem chtfng md'i quan hd nay, cd the tien hanh phan tich ttfdng quan tuyen tinh qua Bang 1.
Ke't qua phan tich itfdng quan cho tha'y, he sd'ttfdng quan r = 0,9978. Dieu nay cd nghia la, gitfa tieu dung dien nang va ta ng trtfdng kinh te cd ttfdng quan thu|ln chieu va mtfc dp ttfdng quan nay la ra't chat che. Kiem dinh Pearson's cho tha'y, he sd ttfdng quan cd y nghia thd'ng kd d mtfc 95%.
Kiem tra tinh ditng cdc bien
Btfdc dau tien trong xay dtfng dtfng md hinh tfdc Itfdng chudi thdi gian la lien hanh kiem tra tinh dtfng cua cac bie'n bang kiem dinh phd bie'n ADF (Augumented Dickey - Fuller). Tuy nhien, dd'i vdi dtt lieu cd it quan sat, thi ngoai kiem dinh ADF can tie'n hanh them kiem dinh Philips-Perron (PP) va
Froi\omv and ForecJ'^i
san pham tao ra tren dia ban TP. Hd Chi Minh (GRDP).
Qua do, cung ca'p cac bang chtfng thtfc nghiem ve md'i quan he gitfa tieu dung dien, tang trtfdng GRDP phuc vu cbo cdng tac xay dtfng kd hoach, xay dtfng kich ban tang trtfdng cua Thanh phd trong nam 2019 vh nhtfng nam tid'p theo.
CO S6 LY THUYET VA P H U O N G PHAP NGHIEN CL/U
Casdly thuyet
Jacobo. C va Viviana. S (2013) nghien ctfu mdi quan he gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te' (GDP) va tieu dung nang Itfdng cua 10 qud'c gia chau My La Tinh (Argentina. Bolivia. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela) trong giai doan 1971-2007. Nghien ctfu tie'n hanh tfdc Itfdng he so gdc (do dd'c) cua md hinh hdi quy bang nham xac dinb md'i quan he ngan han va dai ban ttfdng quan giffa tang trtfdng kinh te va tidu dung dien. Ke't qud nghien ctfu cho tha'y, tdn tai quan he nhan qua (hai htfdng) ve tang trtfdng kinh te'tac ddng den dien nang tidu Ihu va ngtfdc lai.
Wen. C. L (2016) da tim kie'm bang chtfng thtfc nghiem ve md'i quan he tieu dung dien vdi tang trtfdng kinh te cua 17 nganh cdng nghiep tai Dai Loan.
Nghien ctfu da tien hanh thu thap dtf lieu ve tdc do tang trtfdng va dien nang tieu thu ttf 17 nganh cdng nghiep trong giai doan 1998-2014. Tac gia tie'n h^nh kiem dinh Granger nham xac dinh quan hd nhan qua gitta tieu dung dien va tang trtfdng kinh le'. Ke't qua kiem dinh cho tha'y, tdn tai quan hd nhan qua 2 chieu giffa tang trtfdng kinh te va dien nang tieu Ihu, ngbia la dien nang dtfdc xem la dau vao, la ddng Itfc cho tang trtfdng san xua't cdng nghiep va viec gia tang kinh te se lam ddng Itfc cho tieu diing nang Itfdng dien. Ke't qua chl ra rang, khi tieu dung didn tang 1%, thi lang trtfdng kinh te'cua 17 nganh cdng nghiep tai Dai Loan tang 1,72%.
Stjepanovic. S (2017) da nghien ctfu ve md'i quan he gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te va tieu dting dien cua 30 qud'c gia chau Au. Nghien ctfu stf dung phtfdng pbap phan tich hdi quy dtf hdu bang vdi cac bie'n GDP va lieu dung nangltfdno ttf cac ngudn nang Itfdng cd san cua 30 qud'c gia chau Au trong giai doan 1994-2016 ttf dtf lidu Lien mmh chau Au va Thd'ng ke chau Au. Ket qua nghien ctfu cho tha'y, dd'i vdi cac qud'c gia phat tnen, thi khdng ton tai md'i quan he gitfa tieu dung nang Itfdng va tang trtfdng kinh td'. Ngtfdc lai, cac qud'c gia dang phat tnen la nhffng qudc gia trong qua ti'inh chuyen ddi ludn tdn lai md'i quan he chat che giffa tang trtfdng kinh td' va mtfc tieu diing nang Itfdng; Cu the', khi tidu diing nang Itfdng tang 1 ddn vi, thi GDP tang 2,06 ddn vi.
Tai Vidt Nam, nhieu nghien ctfu ve md'i ttfdng quan giffa tang trtfdng kinh te'va dien nang tieu thu da dtfdc thtfc hidn, nhtf:
Tran Thi Mai (2015) danh gia mdi quan he nban qua giffa san Itfdng dien tieu thu va tang trtfdng kinh te
cua cac ntfdc Asean tff dff heu bang dtfdc thu thap cua 6 ntfdc Asean (Singapore.
Maylaysia, Indonesia, Thai Lan, Vie Nam va Philippines) trong giai do^n 1995-2014. Ke't qua nghidn ctfu cho tha'y, tdn tai mdi quan he mdt chieu gitfa tang trtfdng kinh le va tieu dung dipn cua cac qud'c gia Asean. Theo do, san Itfdng lieu diing binh quan diu ngtfdi cd tac ddng trtfc tie'p de'n lang trtfdng GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi cua cac qudc gia Asean ndi tren.
Dinh Thi Thu Hong va cong stf (2017) trong nghien ctfu md'i quan he nhan qua giffa tieu diing didn nang, dau ttf trtfc tid'p ntfdc ngoai va tang trtfdng kinh te cua Viet Nam da stf dung phtfdng phap tfdc Itfdng bang mo hinh ARDL. Nghidn ctfu thu thap dtf lieu thdi gian ve didn nang tieu thu, long vd'n dau itf FDI va GDP cua Viet Nam trong giai doan
1986-2014. Ket qua kiem dinh Granger cho tha'y, ton tai ttfdng quan nhan qua 1 chidu ve md'i quan he FDI, tieu thu dien nang cd tac ddng manh dd'n tang trtfdng kinh le' Viet Nam trong giai doan 1986-2014.
Nguydn Quyd't va Vu Qud'c Khanh (2014) da xem xet md'i quan he gitfa tang trtfdng kinh te va tieu tbu dien nang thtfc lien tai Viet Nam thdng qua cac bid'n nghien ctfu, nhtf: tieu thu dien nang (EC), dau ttf ntfdc ngoai trtfc tie'p (FDI) va vdn dau ttf (K) tdi GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi tai Viet Nam. Nghien ctfu lien hanh thu thap dtf lieu trong giai doan 1993-2013 va phan tich lac ddng bang md hinh VECM. Ke't qua nghien ctfu cho thay, trong dai han, san Itfdng tidu thu dien nang, FDI va'vd'n dau ttf la nhtfng nhan to tich ctfc dd'n lang trtfdng kinh td' Viet Nam.'Trong nga'n han- tidu thu dien, vdn dau ttf cd tac ddng tich ctfc de'n tang trtfdng GDP binh quan dau ngtfdi iai Vidt Nam rieng FDI khdng cd b k g chtfng thdng ke ve mdi ttfdng quan irong ngan ban vdi tang trtfdng kinh te.
Phuangphdp nghien cdu Tren c d s d k d t h t f a cac nghien ctfu trtfdc day va linh kha thi trong dtf lign thu thap, nghien ctfu dl xua't mo hinh tfdc Itfdng hdi quy ddn bie'n co ban .->„.
Y = [3,-HP,.X-HU (1) ' ^ ' ' ' Trong dd:'
Y la bidn dai dien cho ydu id tan^
trtfdng: &
X la bie'n dai dien cho ye'u to nang luong
8
'^-'"'^^aD.KDtfa tren md hinh tdng quat (1) va tfng dung ibtfc nghiem, nghidn ctfu xay dtfng md hinb cu the sau:
LnGRDP^pj-hp,.InEC-HE (2) Trong do:
LnGRDP la logarit tdng san pbam tren dia ban TP. Ho Chi Minh theo gia so sanh nam 2010;
LnEC la logarit tdng khd'i Itfdng dien nang tidu thu trdn dia ban TP. Ho Chi Minh hang nam.
Nham danh gia tac dpng ciia tidu dung dien nang de'n tang trtfdng kinh te cua TP.
H6 Chl Minh, nghien ciJu stf dung phtfdng phap tfdc Itfdng binh phtfdng nho nha't OLS (Ordinary Least Square).
KET qUA NGHIEN CL/U VA THAO LUAN
Mo td dff lieu nghiin ctiu Theo so' lidu Cue Thd'ng ke TP. Hd Chi Minh, nam 2018, tang trtfdng kinh le' Thanh phd dat 8,29% so ciing ky 2017.
Trong giai doan 2006-2010, tang trtfdng kinh te' Thanh phd cd nhtfng bie'n dong ldn do anh htfdng ttf cuoc khung hoang kinh td' the gidi va binb quan trong giai doan nay tang trtfdng dat mtfc 8,24%/
nam. Trong giai doan tid'p theo 2011- 2015, tang trtfdng kinh te' bat d^u phuc hdi va duy tri d mtfc 7,23%/nam. Dd'n giai doan 2016-2018, lang trtfdng Thanh phd' tie'p tuc tang trtfdng binh quan 8,07% nam.
Trong kbi dd, san Itfdng tidu ddng dien cua Thanh pbd' tie'p tuc duy tri d mtfc cao. Trong nam 2018, san Itfdng dien tidu thu trdn dia ban Thanh phd' dat 24,1 ty Kwh, trong dd: khu vtfc san xuS't stf dung chie'm 54,1%, lieu dung dan ctf chie'm 39,9% va tieu diing khac chiem 6,0%. Trong giai doan 2006- 2010, binb quan mdi nam san Itfdng tieu diing cua Thanh pbd' tang 8,1%, nhtfng den giai doan 2011-2015, san Itfdng dien tieu tbu chi tang binh quan 5,05%/nam va trong giai doan 2016- 2018, san Itfdng didn tieu thu da tang len mtfc 7,17%/nam.
Mdi tuang quan cdc bie'n nghien cdu Mdi quan hd gitfa san Itfdng didn tieu thu va tan^g trtfdng kinh td cua Thanh phd cd the dtfdc mo phdng qua do tbi phan tan nhtf Bieu dd.
Bieu dd cho thay, giffa san Itfdng didn lieu thu va tang trtfdng kinh tdcd mdi quan be tuye'n linh va md'i quan hd
BIEU DO: TtJdMG QUAti Gl^A SAN LtfdNG DIEN TIEG THg vA QUY MO GRDP
22Q0D im
SAN LUONG DIEN llEUTMU-TfliEU KWH Mguon T6ng hdp tiy du'lieu c BAMG 1: PHAM TJCH TtfdNG QUAM GlCfA 2 BIEN Bien s6
LnGRDP LnEC
GDP I 0,9978*^*
EC
1
*. ** *** tmng iing vdi mdc y nghia 10%, 5% vd 1%
BANG 2: CTCiC LCl'OMG XU THE CAC BIEM VA HE SO CHAM CAC BIEN Bien phu thugc
Bie'n hoL quy C T
LnGRDP He ,so 12,78858 0,073681
Thong ke T (P-value) 2396,260***
117,5532***
Big'n pliu thu^c Bien hoi quy
C T
LnEC He so
9,1497 0,06 84R6
Thong ke T (P-value) 764,956'**
48,75266=^**
*. 'I'*, *+'' iKang ling vdi mdc y nghia 10%, 5% vd 1%
nay la ra't chat che. Be kidm chtfng md'i quan hd nay, cd the tie'n hanh pban tich ttfdng quan tuye'n tinh qua Bang 1.
Ke't qua phan tich ttfdng quan cho tha'y, he sd itfdng quan r = 0,9978. Dieu nay cd nghia la, giffa tidu dung didn nang va tang trtfdng kinh td'cd ttfdng quan thuOn chieu va mtfc dp ttfdng quan nay la ra't chat che. Kidm dinh Pearson's cho tha'y, hd sd ttfdng quan cd y nghia thdng kd d mtfc 95%.
Kiem tra tinh dffng cdc bien
Btfdc dau tien trong xay dtfng dtfng mo hinh tfdc Itfdng chudi thdi gian la tien hanh kiem ira tinh dtfng cua cac bien bang kiem dinh phd bien ADF (Augumented Dickey - Fuller). Tuy nhien, ddi vdi dff lieu cd it quan sal. thi ngoai kiem dinh ADF can tie'n hanh them kiem dinh PhiUps-Perron (PP) va
Fconomv and ForecJM Revie
B.\:iG 3: KIEM DmH TTNH IXtr^G c A c BIEN CO XO HtfdNG VA CO HE SO CR^N
Bieb LnGRDP UiEC e i
s o Ki^m ffinb ADF j -3.019.'^!
-3-2-:; n : -3J^2693^"
Kilm dfinh PP ' -3.053^-^
-3.23;--^:' -3.5311050'='=
KiemdMiKPSS 0.153.'o- 1
0 . i : ^5=^
0.19S>53-"'
;ID(LnGRDP. -:.9\^5g9='l -3-75^S69-= u.lv>i5.
ChlnECt -3.6562S9*i -•.].0"-20" 0.5-==\
(*- '"- '^*'nti^g i/ns viti miicy ngliia 10^. 5'V .a It
B^-'G 4: X^C DINH BAC TR£ THJCH HdP L a g
„ 0 1 i 2
h
LogL
; , . . : w ; . '
^^.o:-,5
^o.;59.-~
— i ? ; -
LR j N A
5S.;;^v-- :.-6:::=
;.=o:6-j EPF j ,;,..-.:..5
^.^os-
6.?-E->'>
: ^E-O"
AIC 1 -r3y3C»9 - n . : " " 6 5 -
_ : : , i : . i - -Hiv5vl4
sc
-4.666965 -11.0606f -1 o.e^9':c -i0.352~?
HQ 1 -4.7&4yi2!
-ll.41446'|
-IIJ13876 -iI.l7S36
BANG 5: KIEM DiNH E)dNG LIE'S KET JOR-VNSEJS
* I%infng phap 1: Trace 1 Gia
thHV^t N . - e A : - C . - . .
Gia tri ma tran i Gia tri tbd'ng k& ma tran (Eigenvalue! ' (Trace statistic)
G i a
L'.^2"'."^. 21.5S~<-'4 :,55362t- -.-^510"^
tri fdl has
^8-39771 3 S- - ^
P-vahie
0.0173 0.0016
B^'iQ 6: KIEM DEMH DOtSG LIE'': KET JOHA>SEN
* Ptiricfttg phap 2: Maximum EigeoTalue
Gia Gia tii ma trSn , Gia Iri tbd'ng ke ma tran ; Gia tri tdi han _ ^ ^ ' thuvet 1 (EigenTaluel ' (Ma,^-eigen Statistici 5''r jlNone 1 0.6270791
A: niO?:! 0.565626
..i:-:. 1".!J"69| 0.2645 i 9.95:il"9 3.S-: -166| 0.0016 B^N.G 7: tfdc LtfdNG MOI Qd-\N HE GIQA LNGRDP VA L'iEC Jien phu tho6c LnGRDP
He so Sai so'cbua'n Tho'ng ke T (P-valuel
c
LnEC R 2 F- itiu ' D V U I
u
- • lifcm.. .lr.3 .ail nJc :-9^^^-
;.o^i3
• ngnia !'y~'-. 5~
0.1 %"0 0.0203^
ifl/<^
;5.iy-^23=-'=", 52.6^92)"=*'-
n.9y569 2 " 1.939**-
; . o $ " i 5
X i : ^ o . \ s k i - P h i l i p s - SL • n i i d l - S h i n KPSSi Tnrdc khi tien hanh kiem dinh tinh dtfng can xem xei tinh vu htfdng- D'nh chan ciia cac bie'n nghien ctfu- ^
Dtfa iren iTdc ItfOng hara xu the (Bang 2i CO the" khdng dinh rline. cac bien LnGRDP va LnEC ia nhtfng chudi thdi aian c6 tinh xu the'va cd he ^o chan. do diS can tie'n hanh kie'm dinh tinh dffng cua chudi thdi gian trong trtfdng hdp ^^
he sd chan \a c6 xu hffdne bang cac kiem dinh ADF. PP va KPSS.
Ke! qua kiem dinh nghidm dtm vi cua 2 bie'n nghien ctfu bang 3 phtfdng phap (Bang 31 cho tha'y. cac day so' thdi gian LnGRDP va LnEC khdng'dtfng d dang 1(0) ma dtfng tai I( 1). Tuy nhien. sai so' et cua md hinh lai la chuoi dtfng. day cd the' dtfdc xem la tin hieu tdn tai rad'i quan he ddng lien ke'l gitfa bie'n LnGRDP va LnEC. EX) do, can tie'n hanh kiem dinh ddng lien kei Johansen de kiera chtfng
\ e mdi quan he na\.
Xdc dinh bac tre thich hOp Nham xac dinh dp tre td'i im trong phan u'ch chudi thdi gian. nghien ciJu can ctf \ao rieu chuan AIC (.\kai Information Criterion). SC (Schwan Bayesian Criterion) va HQ (Hannan - Quinn Information Criterion). Ket qua thffc nghiem tren Eview cho tha'y, bac tre thich hop nhat dung cho phan tich la bac 1 (Bang4i.
Kiem dinh dong lien kit Johansen KicTT. >:T': CO-C "ien ke't difOc Engle - Gr-nger L:oi ihiea nam !98?. kiem dmh dling de xem xet md'i quan he dai han cua chudi thdi gian khdnsdtfnc^ khi cho rang, chudi thdi gian khona dtfn*^
CO the trd thanh chudi dtfna khi^chuno dtfdc td hop myen tinh vdi nhau Trace va Maximum Eigenxalue la 2 phif(Jn°
phap dtfoc dung trong kie'm dinh mil quan he dong lien ke,. Thi/c nghiem
Ban "< r " "^" '^° ^^'' '^"^ "^^
Kei qua tfdc Itfong ttf Bane 6 va Bang 7 ve kiem dinh ddns lidn ke'
Ctfc dai , M a . ^ - ' £ ^ S : ; ; n e n g thay.du_c.sOdebacbog,ithuvd-tH khong ton t a i n nhat mdt mdi quan hd dong hen kei . , 3 . LnGRDP v i L ^ r Quan he don^ ^,en kei xav r^ - rank=0 vdi g,. .ri Tra,^e-l i - ' 2 '
>(P-^aiue=15.4lK.,ghTMa«iira:V^' tn/dng kinh te \ a san ItfOn" A;^„ ^^
c "^'en nane
10
tidu thu ton tai md'i quan he kinh te' dai han.
Phdn tich mdi guan h? trong ddi hgn Stf tdn tai md'i quan he dong lien ke't se loai bodtfOc trtfdng hop hoi quy sai cua 2 chudi thdi gian khdng dtfng.
Qua dd, md hinh du"0c ihie'l ISp nham phan tich mo'i quan he dai han gitfa LnGRDP va LnEC cd y nghia thd'ng kd d mtfc 95%. Ke't qua cho tha'y, trong dai han, khi san Itfdng dien tieu thu cua Thanh phd' tang len 1%, thl tang trtfdng kinh le' tang 1,07% trong dieu kien cac nban td' khac dtfdc xem nhtf khdng thay d^i.
Phan tich moi quan h? trong ngdn hgn bang mo hinh hieu chlnh sai sd(ECM)
Md hinh hidu chinh sai so' ECM la he thd'ng cac dac trtfng chuyen ddi dd lech Clia trang thai hien tai va md'i quan hd dai han vao trong trang thai ngan ban. Dai y bieu dien ciia Granger ndi rang: khi 2 bid'n cd quan he dong lien ke't, thi mo'i quan he dtfdc bieu didn bang md hinh hidu chinh sai sd ECM. Md hinh sai so' ECM nghidn ctfu trang thai can bang irong nghien ctfu nay co dang:
MnGRDP^ = ^,+ ^j. e , + J^^J,^. ALnGRDP^ _ + lllJ^.ALnEC^^^ + £^ (3)
Trong do:
ALnGRDP^: la sai phan bac I ciia LnGRDP d thdi gian t;
ALnGRDP^P la sai phan bac I cua LnGRDPdthdigianl-1;
ALnEC^^i la sai phSn bac 1 ciia LnEC d thdi gian l-m;
E^,: la sai sd'tre lai t-l giai doan;
E^: la phan dtf cua md hinh ECM.
Ke't qua tfdc \\iang md hinh bang phan mem Eview cho ke't qua nhtf Bang 8.
Md hinh hieu chinh sai so' difdc tfdc Itfdng d Bang 8 cho tha'y, hd sd' hieu chinh sai so'mang da'u dtfdng (+), cd gia iri bang 0,08 va cd y nghTa thd'ng ke d mtfc 1%, nghTa la trong ngan han 0,08%
stf mat can bang cua tang trtfdng kinh te' Clia nam trtfdc se dtfdc dieu chinh tang trong nam tie'p theo. Gia tn ECM=0,08 rat tha'p, chtfng to stf dieu chinh nay ve trang thai can bang se dien ra cham, ndn nhffng cu sd'c trong kinh le' se kho phuc hoi trong tbdi gian ngan.
Ket qua lac ddng trong nga'n han cho ihay, vai tro ciia tieu diing nang lu'dng de'n tang trtfdng kinh te'. Cu the':
kh] san Itfdng dien nang tieu thu ciia
BAMG 8:
Bien hoi quy ECM{-I) D(LnGRDP(-I)) D(LnEQ-I))
(S6c LddNG md HINH ECM D (LnGRDP) Hesd'
0,082534***
0,066038*
0,052139^**
Sai so chua'n 0,20612 0,38675 0.1489
Gia tri T 0,40041 0,17075 0.35016 ECM = LnGRDP-(2.98884 + 1,0713*LnEC}
*, **, *** lUang dng vdi mdc y ngliTa 10%, 5% vd 1%
HiNH: LddT D 5 TCfONG QGAM D (LNEC)
Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
^ ; I I ^ ^ [ I I • I I I S
D I I : C I 1 1
D I I : I I :
[ I I I
[ I I [ ] I I c [ I I [
1 -0.415 -0.415 2 -0 077 -0.3DD 3 -0047 -0.2S3 4 0.270 0.127 5 -0.269 -0.134 6 0.188 0.126 7 -0.023 0.118 8 -0.121 -0.139 9 -0.033 -0.D97 10 0107 -0132 11 -0.044 -0.080 12 -0.036 -0.031
2.7923 2.8972 2 9404 4 5153 62735 7.2532 7.2707 7.8463 7 8996 8 6492 3 8338 9.0885
0.095 0.235 0401 0 341 0.281 0.298 0.401 0449 0 544 0 566 0637 0.695
BANG 9: THOMG SO CAC MO HIMH ARIMA <P,D,Q) M3 hinh
ARiMA(l.l,2) ARIMA(1.I.3) ARIMA(4,I.2) ARIMA(4.1.3)
Adjusted R2 0.516234
SC -4,582443
AIC -4,703669 He so' AR, MA khong co y nghTa tho'ng ke
0.643169 0.541552
-4.582 J31 -4,331547
-4,647872 -4,397289
* **. *** tUcfng itng vdi mdc y nglua J0%. 5% ra 1%
BAMG 10: CTdC LCldt^G MO H I M H ARIMA
Bien phu thu8c Bi^^n hoi quy
D(LnEC) He so
C 1 O.Vf'l-'^3') -\R( 1 J
M \i2) HMng dng
- n v ^ . M -0.999985 171 mdi 1 ngh
Do lech chuan 0,001962 0.083585 3.38882E-06
~ci 10%. 5% vd 1%
Tha'ng kg T (P-value) 33.85752* •*
-9.317677--'^
-295083.8":-'
Ecomimy and ForcciM Rev
11
nam trtfdc (taj trd 1) tang \% se tac ddng den taog trtfdngkinh te Clia nam hien tai ta.ng6,05%.
Dff bdo tang trffng kinh te Thanh phd nam 2019 Vdi chuoi thdi gian la chudi goc khdng dtfng, md hinh .ARIMAfp,d.q) dtfOc xem la phii hdp hdn. Ttf kel qua Bang 3 cho thay. chudi thdi ^ian LnEC dtfng d bac 1 (d=l) va can ctf vao Itfoc do ttfdng quan ACF va PACF (Hinh) nham xac dinh bac p td'i tfu cua .AR, bac q tdi tfu ciia MA ta nhan thay he sd: pc:{ l,4)va qc={2.3}.
Cac mo hinh dtfdc xay dtfng difa tren tieu chuan danh gia md hinh. danh gia he sdhoi quy vdi mtfc y nghia thdng kd 5'~c bai viet sd itfdc cac thong sd chinh nh^m danh gia va Itfa chpn mo hinh ARIM.A cho phii hdp vdi dtf lieu quan sat nhtf Bang 9.
Tren cac cd sd tieu chuan danh gia md hinh, ke't qua Bang 9 cho thay, md hinh .\RlMAr 1.1,2) la phti hdp nhat theo tieu lieu chuan AIC. Cdc Itfdng md hinh ARIMA(I.L2) dtfdc kel qua nhtf Bang 10.
Vdi md hinh tfdc Itfdng nhtf Bang 10. thi gia tri dtf bao san Itfdng dien tieu thu nam 2019 ttf phin mem Eview tfdc dat 25.978 trieu kwh ttfdng tfng mtfc tang 7.73'^f so cung ky nam 2018. Tren cd sd tfdc tinh san Itfdng dien tieu thu nam 2019. thi id'c dp tang trtfdng kinh te' nam 2019 tren dia ban Thanh phd' tfdc tang 8.29^c so cung ky nam 2018.
KET LUAN VA GOl Y CHINH SACH Kdt qua phan tich cho tha'y. san Itfdng dien tieu thil CO tac ddng ticb ctfc de'n tang trtfdng kinh te' Ciia Thanh phd xet tren pham vi ng^n han va dai ban. Trong dai ban. khi san Itfdng dien tieu thu Clia Thanh phd tang len Wc. thi se gdp phan thuc day tang trtfdng kinh td ciia Thanh phd tang 1.07'^c. Trong ngSn han. khi san Itfdng dien tieu thu cua nam trtfdc (tai tre 1) tang len \^c. thi se gdp
phan thuc day tang trtfdng kinh te cua Thanh phd nam tie'p theo tang 0-03 *-^
Ttf ke't qua nghien ctfu. bai viei xm gdi y mpt so' npi dung chi'nfa sach he quan sau:
M6'" ^anhphdcan.\a>dtfngraijc tieu - - - r \ d tieu dting nang Itfdng. chi sdchai thai CO, gay hieu tfng nha fcinh di kem vdi muc tieu tang trtfdng kinh td' trong ttfng giai doan phat trien cua Thanh phd.
Hai Id. trong xay dtfng ke hoach va kich ban tang trtfdng cua Thanh phd trong ng^n ban. cung nhtf irong dai han.
Nsoai yeu td vd'n. lao dpng. nang suat cac nhSn id tong hdp, thl cSn xem xet vai tro quan nrong cua yeu td tieu diing nang Itfdng den tang trtfdng kinh te' cua Thanh phd.
Ba Id. Thanh pbdcan xa> de an danh gia tieu dilng nang Itfdng. bien doi khi hau tai cac khu cdng nghidp. cac doanh nghiep san xual cdng nghiep, cac trung tam thtfdng mai nham cd nhtfng danh gia phan tfch chu>en sau \ e tinb hinh tieu thu nang Itfdng. Ttf do. co chie'n Itfdc ttf van hd trd cdng nghe sach. cdng nghd tie't kiem nang Itfdng den cac doanh nghiep san xuat.
Bdn Id. Thanh phd can kie'n nghi vdi Chinh phii thi diem md hinh da dang boa nguon Itfc vd phtfdng thtfc dau ttf. tham gia vao san xua't. kinh doanh dien tren dia ban Thanh phd. td dd hinh thanh nen thl^tnrdng dien canh tranh nham han che ddc quyen nha ntfdc bie'n thanh ddc quyen cua doanh nghiep.IJ
TAI LIEU THAM K I L \ 0
1. Cong t>' Dien Itfc TP. Ho Chi Muih (2005-2018). Dd lieu dien ndng tiiu dut cdc ndm td '>015 den 2018
2. Cue Thdng kd TP. Ho Chi Minh 12016-2019). Min gidm Thdng ke TP Hd ChiMinh cdc ndm td 2016 de'n 2018. Nxb Thd'ng ke
3. Duih Thi Thu Hong va cdng stf (2017). Tieu thu didn nang. diu ttf u^c tiep ntfdc naoai \ a tang trtfdngkinh te Viel Nam: Phtfdng phap ARDL. Tgp chi Phdt trien Kinhte. 2S(4),64-8l
4. Tran Thi Mai (2015). .Mdi quan hi nhdn qua gida sdn luang dien Ueu thu vd tang truanskinh ted cdc nudc ASEA\ Luan van thac sT kinb te, Trtfdng Dai hpc Kinb te TP. Ho Chi Minh
5- Nguydn Quyet \ a Vu Qudc Khanh (2014). Quan he gitfa tang trtfdng kmh te %a tieu th dien nans thtfc tien tai \ i e t Xam. Tgp chi khoa hoc TrUdng Bgi hoc \1d TP. Rr, C td Minh s'' 5(38). 66-78 ' °
6. Jacobo. C va \iviana.S (2013). The relationghip between erer^
Evidence from a panel of 10 Latin American countries, Joumal ofecon. ,i 7. Stjepano\ic. S (20171 Relationship between egemy consumption ana countries in europe-panel. Ekonomski Pregled. 69(1). 43 ^"
n and GDP:
255
•!'-o\Mhin3o 8. Wen. C. L (2016 K Electricitx Consumption and Economic Growth: Evident e h om 17 Taiwa
fustries. Sustainability. 9(2017), 1-15 "^^^
Industries.
