Nhffng nhan to anh hifdng den hieu qua hoat dong cua cac
doanh nghiep niem yet nganh thuy san Viet Nam
PHClCiC MINH HIEP*
N G a v l N THI BICH T H O A N "
Tom tat
Bdi viit sff dung 03 md hinh Pooled OLS, Random Effect Model (REM) vd Fixed Effect Model (FEM), cung vdi kiim dinh F vd Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier di Iffa chgn md Mnh gidi thich tdt nhdt cdc nhdn tddnh hudng den Meu qud hogt ddng c&a doanh nghiep th&y sdn niem yit tren thi trudng chUng khodn Viet Nam giai dogn 2010-2015. Kit qud md Mnh cho thdy, ty le ddn bdy tdi chinh vd hdng tdn kho tren tdng tdi sdn cd tuang quan dm vdi hieu qud hogt dgng; tdc do tdng tdng tdi sdn vd thdi gian hogt ddng c&a doanh nghiep cd quan he cung chieu vdi hieu qud hogt ddng.
Tif k h o a : Meu qud hogt ddng, doanh nghiep thuy sdn, doanh nghiep niem yit, ngdnh thuy sdn S u n u n a r y
Along with Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test, the article uses three models including Pooled OLS, REM and FEM to find out the best model for evaluating determinants ofthe performance of aquaculture enterprises listed on Vietnam's stock market in the period 2010-2015. The outcome points out that financial leverage ratio and inventory to total assets is negatively correlated with the performance of a business, while growth rate of total assets and operation time show a positive correlation.
K e y w o r d s : performance, aquaculture enterprises, listed companies, fisheries
GlCfl T H I E U 16% so vdi nam 2014. Dae biet, ttt nam 2003 tdi nay, tde dp tang trtfdng xua't khau thuy san Viet Nam giam Theo Tong cue Thdng ke, ttt nam manh. Dieu dd anh htfdng Idn den ldi nhuan eua doanh 2000, xuat khau thiiy san cua Viet Nam nghiep thuy san. Nguyen nhan ehinh la do anh htfdng cd srf tang trtfdng dot pha nhd phat trien eua nen kinh te toan eau va vu kien ea tra, ca basa, vti manh nganh nudi trdng, dac biet la nudi kien tdm... Chinh vi vSy, lam the nao de dam bao hieu ca tra va tdm ntfde Id (tdm su va tdm qua hoat dpng kinh doanh, tao ra ldi nhuan cho doanh the chan trang). Sau 15 nam, kim ngach nghiep thuy san trong thdi gian tdi la van de dang dtfdc xua't khau thiiy san tang gap hdn 4 lan, quan tam hien nay.
ttt mtfc gan 1,5 ty USD nam 2000 len 7,8 Do dd, viee nghien cttti cac nhan td anh htfdng ty USD nam 2014. Nam 2015, xua't khau den hieu qua hoat dpng cua cae doanh nghiep thiiy thiiy san gap khd khan do gia tdm giam, san la ttfdng dd'i can thiet. Ttt ket qua nghien ettu eac ddng USD tang manh so vdi eae tien te nhan to anh htfdng den hieu qua hoat ddng, chung ta khac lam giam nhu eau va tang ap ltfc se ed nhttng giai phap thie't thtfe nham nang cao nang canh tranh. Kim ngach xua't khau thuy ltfc eanh tranh va hieu qua hoat ddng eua eac doanh san nam 2015 dat 6,57 ty USD, giam nghifip thuy san.
• PGS, TS., Tap chi Cpng san I Email: [email protected]
" T h S . . Trtfdng Dai hpc Dong Thap
Ngdy nhdn hdi: 15/11/2016: Ngdy phan bien:09/12/20!6: Ngdy duyet dang: 14/12/2016
Economy and Forecast Review ^ y
BAING 1: DAG KY VOMG CAC BIEIS TRO^a MO HIMH Bie'n
ROA X, X,
x_, x.
Cach do lifdng Ldi nhuan rong tren tong tai san Tong nO/Tong tai san Hang ton Icho/Tong tai san
Tdc dp tang trtfdng tdng tai san, dtfdc tinli loan bang each so sanh tdng tai san nam sau so vdi nam tru'dc.
Thcfi gian hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep, dtfdc tinh theo sd nam thtfc te hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep.
Ky vong
+
+
TONG QUAN CAC NGHIEN CU'U THLfC NGHIEM TRlJCfC DAY
Nguyen Thanh Tan, Vd Thanh Danh va Tang Thi Ngan (2014) da nghien cttu cae nhan td' anh htfdng de'n hieu qua hoat ddng kinh doanh eila cac doanh nghiep d tinh Bac Lieu. Dtt lieu nghien cttu dtfde thu thap tff 113 doanh nghiep tren dia ban tinh Bac Lieu. Ket qua nghien ctfu cho tha'y, cac bie'n: loai hinh doanh nghiep, quy md, sd nam boat ddng eiia doanh nghiep, td'c dp tang trtfdng doanh thu deu cd ttfdng quan dtfdng vdi hieu qua hoat dpng eiia cac doanh nghiep.
Quan Minh Nhtft va Ly Thi Phtfdng Thao (2014) da tien hanh phan tich cac nhan td anh htfdng den hieu qua hoat dpng ciia cae doanh nghiep ba't dpng san giai doan 2010-2012 bang phtfdng phap OLS. Ket qua nghien effu cho tha'y, ty Ie ddn bay tai chinh, tai san ed dinh tren tdng tai san cd tac ddng tieu ctfc den hieu qua hoat ddng, cd phieu quy/tdng vdn cd phan, quy md va thdi gian hoat ddng cd tac ddng tieh ctfc den hieu qua hoat ddng ciia doanh nghiep ba't ddng san.
Onaolapo, A. A., & Kajola, S. O. (2010) thtfc hien nghien cttu md'i quan he giffa ca'u true vd'n va hieu qua hoat dpng ciia 121 edng ty phi tai chinh niem ydt tren san giao djch chttng khoan Nigeria trong giai doan ttt nam 2001 den nam 2007. Ke't qua nghien ettu cho thay, tinh thanh khoan, ty le ddn bay tai chinh cd quan hp ngtfdc chieu vdi hieu qua hoat ddng, edn quy md cdng ty (SIZE), sd nam hoat ddng ciia doanh nghiep va^tdc dp tang trtfdng cd tac ddng tich ctfc den hieu qua hoat dpng.
Zeitun, R., and Tian, G. G. (2007) thtfc hien nghien Ctfu moi quan he gitta ca'u triic vdn va hieu qua hoat dpng ciia 167 cdng ty niem ydt tren san giao dich chtfng khoan Amman - Jordan, thude 16 nganh nghe kmh doanh khae nhau trong ITnh vtfc phi tai chinh trong giai doan ttt nam 1989 de'n nam 2003. Kdt qua' nghien ctfu eho tha'y, cac ydu td: tdc do tang trtfdng cua tong tai san (GROWTH), tinh thanh khoan ty 16 don bay tai chinh, rtii ro kinh doanh ed quan he ngtfdc f^Jy^^^i -!^ '^"' ' ' ° ^ ' "^^"g' '=°" q"y md cdng ty (SIZE), thue (TAX) cd tac dpng tieh ctfc ddn hieu qud noat dpng. • ^
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D O LIEU, PHLfCfNG PHAP V MO HINH NGHIEN CLfU
Dil lieu nghien cffu
Dtt lieu sff dung trong bai viet du'c) thu thap ttt eac bao cao tai chinh eiia 1' doanh nghiep thiiy san niem yet trft thi trtfdng chttng khoan Viet Nam gia doan ttt nam 2010 den 2015 vdi 11;
quan sat. Cac bao cao tai chinh ciia cat doanh nghiep thuy san dttdc thu th2(
ttt Cdng ty c d phan Chffng khoan Tai Viet (Vietstock) day dii trong giai doan nghien ettu.
Md hinh nghien cffu
Md hmh hdi quy tuyen tinh da hien trong nghien cttu cd dang tdng quat nhit sau:
ROA, = |3o + p,X„+p,X„+P3X3,+
Cac dau ky vpng cac bien trong mo hinh dffdc neu trong Bang I.
PhffOngphdp nghien cffu
Trong bai vie't nay ehung tdi stt diing nghien effu tiinh ltft;(ng vdi phan mem Stata 12.() de tfdc tinh cae nhan tdanh hrfdng den thu nhdp ldi can Men ciia ngdn hdng. Nghien cttu sff dung ba mo hinh hdi quy Pooled OLS, FEM, REM vdi dff lieu bang. Ngoai ra, ehiing toi sff dung eac kiem dinh (F va Breuscli and Pagan Lagrangian multipher) de Irfa ehpn md hinh giai thich td't nhat cac nhan to anh hrfdng de'n thu nhap lai can bien. Ddng thdi, chung tdi cdn sff dung tuy chpn Robust va Cluster de khac phuc hien trfdng phrfdng sai thay ddi va trf ttfdng quan va kiem dinh Ramsey Reset de kiem dinh hien ttfdng bd sot bien eua md hinh. Vdi each xac dinh md hinh nhtf vay, eae he so' hdi quy tfdc Itfcfng trong md hinh cd tinh vitng va hieti qua cd the giai thieh td't cho si/
thay ddi eiia thu nhSp lai can bien (Bai viit sff dung cdch viit so thdp phdn theo chudn qud'c te).
KET QUA NGHIEN CU'U Ket qud thdng ke md td
^Bang 2 cho tha'y, Ty sua't sinh Id/
Tdng tai san trung binh eua cae doanh nghiep niem yet trong miu nghien cihi la 5.55% vdi dp lech ehuan la 0.053.
Dieu nay chttng td, hieu qua hoat ddng cua cac doanh nghiep thuy san dat dtfdc chtfa cao so vdi tiem nang. Gia tri trung binh cua Tdng np/Tdng tai san \i 0.71,
chffng td cac doanh nghiep thiiy san dang stt dung ty le nd kha eao. Chlnh vi dieu nay ed the se anh hffdng den doanh nghiep trong nhttng giai doan nen kinh te khd khan. Gia tri trung binh cua Hang tdn kho/Tong tai san (X2) eua eac doanh nghiep trong mSu nghien cffu la 0.26 vdi dp lech ehuan la 0.16. Dieu dd the hien ty le hang tdn kho eua cac doanh nghiep thuy san d mtte tttdng dd'i.
Bang 3 eho thay, cac bie'n Ty le nd/
Tong tai san. Hang tdn kho/Tong tai san deu cd ttfdng quan am vdi ROA, rieng Td'c dp tang trtfdng tai san cd ttfdng quan dtfdng vdi ROA, cdn thdi gian hoat ddng khdng ttfdng quan vdi ROA. Tuy nhien, de xem xet ky mdi ttfdng quan chat che gitta cac bien se dtfde giai thieh etj the d ket qua md hinh hdi quy.
Bang 3 edn cho tha'y, gitta XI va X2;
X4 va X2 cd tttdng quan vdi nhau. Tuy nhien, de lam rd hien trftjng da edng tuyen giffa cac bien ddc lap ta tien hanh stt dung nhan ttt phdng dai phffdng sai VIF. Ket qua eho tha'y, ta't ea eae bien ddc lap deu nhd hdn 2 va gia tri trung binh eua VIF = 1.12 < 2, chffng td md hinh hdi quy khdng xay ra Men trfdng da cdng tuyen.
Kit qud hdi quy
Kiim dinh Men tugng bd sdt biin c&a md hinh Pool OLS
Gid thiit H^: Md hinh khdng cd bd sdt bien
Tff ke't qua cua kiem dinh Ramsey Reset, ta cd F (4, 109) = 11.23;
Prob > F = 0.0000
Bang 4 cho tha'y, md hinh Pool OLS khdng bd sdt bien.
Kiem tra sff Iffa chon giffa md hinh Pool OLS vd REM
Gid thiit H^: Md hinh Pool OLS phu hi3p hdn md hinh REM
Ket qua cua kiem dinh Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier eho biet:
Gia tri tdi han Chi = 0.32; prob = 0.285>0.6l.
Dieu nay chttng td chap nhan gia thie't Hjj vdi mtte y nghia 1%. Do dd md hinh Pool OLS phu hdp hdn md hinh REM.
Kiim tra sff Iffa chgn giffa md hinh Pool OLS vd FEM
Gia thiet H^,: Lffa chon md hinh Pool OLS
H,: Lffa chpn md hinh FEM
Ket qua eua kiem dinh F trong md hinh H3M cho bie't:
F (18, 91) = 2.19; Prob > F = 0.083
BANG 2: KET QUA THOMG KE |V10 TA CUA CAC BIEN TROMG m o HINH
Cac yei] td' ROA
Xl X2 X3 X4
Ti^ng binh 0.055 0.713 0.259 0.223 14.132
Ldn nhat 0.304 0.957 0.629 2.121 37
Nhd nhat 0.001
0 0.0002 0.0041 3
Do Ifch chuan 0.053 0.197 0.159 0.243 8.453
BANG 3: MA TRAN TCTdNG QGAN CGA CAC BIEN TRONG MO HINH
ROA XI X2 X3 X4
ROA 1.00 -0.323**
-0.350**
0.276**
0.144 XI
1.00 0.262**
-0.014 0.087
X2
1.00 -0.142 0.320**
X3
1.00 0.099
X4
1.00 VIF
1.07 1.23 1.05 1.14 Ghi chu: ** Chi so co y nghia thong ke 5%
BANG 4: KET QOA HOI QCIY MO HINH PhtfcTng
phap
XI X2 X3 X4 CONS R-sq
POOLED OLS
Coef -0.0693***
-0.1134***
0.0441**
0.0016***
0.1015 Prop
0.003 0.000 0.017 0.004 0.000 0.2919
REiVI
Coef -0.6810***
-0.1152***
0.0416**
0.0016***
0.1018 Prop
0.004 0.000 0.022 0.006 0.000 0.0837
FEIVI
Coef -0.0519 -0.1222**
0.0143 -0.0037 0.1731
Prop 0.140 0.021 0.468 0.149 0.000 0.1332 Ghi chii: *, ** ***; Chl socd y nghia tho'ng ke 10%, 59c vd 1%
Ngudn: Vietstock va i<e't qua tinh toan tur phan mgm STATA12
Ta tha'y prob = 0.083 > 0.01. Dieu nay chffng td chap nhan gia thiet H„ vdi mtfc y nghia 1%. Do do, md hinh Pool OLS phu hdp hdn md hinh FEM.
Vi vay, nghien effu se chpn md hinh Pool OLS de giai thich ket qua.
Ve ty le ddn bdy tdi chinh: Bien Tdng ndlTong tai san (XI) cd he sdhdi quy tffdng ffng la -0.0693, chffng td XI ed tffdng quan am ROA vdi mtfc y nghia 5% (Prob
= 0.003). Ket qua nghien cuii phu help vdi ly thuyet va cac nghien cuii trrfde day. Ket qua cd nghia la khi Tong
Economy and Forecast Review
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nd/Tdng tai san eua edng ty cang Idn, thi hieu qua ho^t ddng ciia edng ty eang nhd. Bdi, stt dung nd cang nhieu tao ap lrfc ve tai chinh eho edng ty, hdn nffa trong giai doan nghien effu nen kinh te edn trong tinh trang khd khan, nen viec stt dung nd vay ehffa ed tac dpng lam ddn bay lam tang gia tri cdng ty, ma ngffdc lai edn lam giam hieu qua boat ddng kinh doanh.
W W Sau IS nam, kim ngach V V xua't khau thuy san tang
gfi'p htfn 4 l l n , tuf mu'c g i n 1,5 ty USD nam 2000 lgn 7,8 ty USD nam 2014. Nam 2015, xua't khiu thuy san g?p kho khan do gia tfim giam, d6ng USD tang manh so vdti cac tiln tfe khac lam giam nhu cau va tang ap Wc canh tranh. j j
vi ty le Hdng tdn kho/Tong tdi sdn: Bien X2 ed he sd hdi quy trfdng ffng la -0.1134, chrfng td bien X2 ed tae dpng tieu ctfc tdi ROA, vdi mtfc y nghia 5% (Prob = O.OOCi). Dieu nay cd nghta khi ty le Hang tdn kho/Tdng tai san cang Idn, thi Ty sua't sinh Idi/Tdng tai san eang nhd. Ket qua hoan toan phu hdp vdi ly thuyet va cae nghien cffu trffdc day.
vi quy md: Bien X3 cd he so hdi quy ttfdng ffng la 0.0441, chttng td X3 cd ttfdng quan dtfdng vdi ROA d mtte y nghia 5% (Prob = 0.017). Dieu nay cd nghia la khi quy md boat ddng cua cdng ty cang Idn, thl hieu qua hoat dpng cang cao. Bdi, khi quy md Idn cdng ty se tan dung dttdc ldi the ve quy md de nang cao hieu qua boat dpng. Ket qua hoan toan phu hpp vdi eac nghien cttu tren.
vi thdi gian hogt ddng cua doanh nghiep: Bien X4 ed he sd'hdi quy trfdng ttng la 0.0016, chttng td X4 cd trfdng quan drfdng vdi ty sua't sinh ldi tren tdng tai san (ROA) d mtte y nghia 5% (Prob = 00.00). Dieu nay cd nghia la cdng ty hoat ddng eang lau, thl hieu qua boat ddng cang cao. Bdi, khi cdng ty hoat dpng cang lau, thi da tao drfng drfdc uy tin va thrfdng hieu td't trong long ngtfdi tieu dung, nen hieu qua hoat ddng se cang eao.
Ket qua hoan toan phu hpp vdi nghien eiiii cac nghien ctfu trtfdc day.
KET LUAN VA G0I Y CHINH SACK
Bai viet da dtfa ra bang chffng thtfc nghiem ve mdi ttfdng quan am gitta cau true vd'n va hieu qua hoat dpng cua cac doanh nghiep thuy san dang niem yet tren thi trrfdng chttng khoan Viet Nam giai doan 2010-2015. Ket qua cdn cho thgy, cae doanh nghifp ed thdi gian hoat dpng eang lau, quy md cang Idn, ty le hang tdn kho tha'p, thi hieu qua hoat dpng eang cao.
Ttt ket qua dinh IttiJng tren, chiing ta cd the de xuai't mpt sd ham y chinh sach nham nang eao hieu qua boat ddng cua doanh nghiep thuy san Viet Nam. ^
Thff nhdt, ed ca'u lai ngudn vd'n cua doanh nghiep. Doanh nghiep can cd cau lai ty le net tren tdng tai san xudng miic ht?p ly de lam giam ap lrfc tra nd gd'c va lai vay ngan hang eua doanh nghiep.
Ddng thdi, can ed chinh sach sff dung vd'n hieu qua, tan dung ifu the cua nd de lam gia tang gia tri doanh nghiep.
Thff hai, thrfc hien chien iddc ban hang hdp ly va ap dung eac md hinh quan ly hang tdn kho hieu qua de dam bao hang hda tdn kho d mtte tdi utf nham giai quye't van de chat Itttjng va gia ca hang hda, giup doanh nghiep xoay vong vdn nhanh, lam giam chi phi lien quan den hang tdn kho. Ttt dd, lam tang ldi nhuan cho edng ty.
ThU ba, cac doanh nghiep ed quy mo Idn can tan dung tfu the ciia minh de lam giam ehi phi, tang drfde ldi nhuan va ttt dd nang eao hieu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep.
ThU tu, doanh nghiep cd thdi gian hoat ddng eang lau, thi cd cd hpi xay dtfng ya phat trien thrfdng hieu td't, drfdc nhieu khach hang biet den va ed ed hpi tang dtfdc khach hang va tang dtfdc hieu qua san xua't, kinh doanh. •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Nguyen Minh Tan, Vd Thanh Danh va Tang Thi Ngan (2014). Cae nhan td anh htfdng den hieu qua hoat ddng kinh doanh eua cac doanh nghiep nhd va vtta tai tinh Bac Lieu, Tgp chi Khoa hgc Trudng Dgi hgc Cdn Tha, 38, pp. 34-40
2. Quan Minh Nhtft va Ly Thi Phtfdng Thao (2014). Phan tich cac nhan td anh htfdng den hieu qua hoat ddng cila eae doanh nghiep bat ddng san dang niem yet tren thi trtfdng chttng khoan Viet Nam, Tgp chi Khoa hgc Trudng Dgi hgc Can Tha, 33, pp. 65-71
3. Onaolapo, A. A., & Kajola, S. 6. (2010). Capital structure and firm performance: evidence from Nigeria, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 25, pp. 70-82 4. Zeitun, R., & Tian, G. G. (2007). Capital structure and corporate performance: evidence from Jordan, Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 1(4), pp. 3
