CAC NHAN TO THUC DAY VA CAN TRd TAI C H I N H T O A N DIEN O VIET NAM
Ong Nguyen Chirong Trudng Dqi hgc Kinh ti, Dai hgc Dd Ndng
Email: chuangon@due. edu. vn Ngay nhan: 07/03/2020
Ngay nhan ban sira 30/5/2020 Ngay duyet dang: 05/9/2020
Tom tat:
Nghiin ciru ndy su dung phuang phdp hdi quy dir lieu gdp vd hdi quy tobit vdi bg du lieu Dieu tra hd gia dinh ndng thdn a Viet Nam (VARHS) 2008. 2010, 2012. 2014. 2016 de xem xet cdc nhan td dnh huang din tdi chinh todn dien a pham vi hd gia dinh. Kit qud nghien ciru thuc nghiem cho thdy tinh trang hoc vdn cua chu ho, thu nhap hd, gid tri bdng tien ciia cdc mdnh dat thudc sd hiru cua hd, sd luang mdnh dat co so do cda hd, dip can dich vu tdi chinh thdng qua internet la cdc nhdn td thiic day; trong khi do ty le phu thudc cua hg vd hd ngheo Id cdc nhan td cdn trd tdi chinh todn dien d Viet Nam
Tir khoa: dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic, tai chinh cua hg gia dinh, tai chinh toan dien.
Ma JEL: G20, G21, D14, C34
Factors facilitating and hindering financial inclusion in Vietnam Abstract:
Utilizing the Vietnam Access lo Resources Household Survey (VARHS) in 2008, 2010. 2012, 2014, 2016, this study applies pooled regres.uon and tobit regression models to examine factors affecting household financial inclusion Empirical findings demonstrate that educational attainment of household head, household income, sales value of household s land plots, red- books of household's land plots, and access to financial services via internet are facilitating factors, while the household dependency ratio and poor household are hindrances.
Keywords: Formal financial services; household finance; financial inclusion.
JEL Codes: G20, G2}, D14, C34
J.Gidi thieu
Tii nhirng nam 2000, tai chinh toan dien (financial inclusion) da trd thanh mdt van de dugc quan tam tren pham vi toan ciu vdi muc tieu phat trien he thdng tai chinh phuc vu cho tit ca cac thanh vien trong xa hgi. Sy bao phii tai chinh dugc thira nhan rdng rai nhu la yeu td quan trgng ddi vdi viec giam ngheo, bat binh dang va dat dugc tang trudng bao tnim (inclusive growth). Tai chinh toan dien khdng phai la muc dich - ma la mdt phuong tien de dat dugc muc dich. Thdng qua tai chinh toan dien nham cung cap djch vu tai chinh phii hgp va thuan Hen cho mgi ca nhan va td chirc, dac biet ddi vdi ngucri cd thu nhap thap va de bi tdn thuong nhim tang cudng co hgi tiep can tai chinh, gdp phan tao ca hgi sinh ke, luan chuyen ddng vdn dau tu va tilt kiem trong xa bdi, qua dd tbiic day tang trudng kinh te (UN, 2006; European Commission, 2008; GPFl, 2011; Stem & cdng su, 2011; AusAlD, 2010; WB, 2014a, 2014b).
Theo CO sd dir lieu toan ciu Findex (Global Findex database) din nam 2017. ty le ngudi dTJcmg thanh cd tai khoan vdi mdt td chiic tai chinh hoac thdng qua djch vu thanh toan di dgng da dat 69%, trong dd d cac nude dang phat yiln dat 63% (bao gdm cac khoan thanh toan duoc thyc hien dye tilp bang the ghi ng hoac the tin dung hoac sir dyng dien thoai hoac qua internet), va chi sd nay ciia \iei Nam mot chi dat 31%. Tai chinli dien d Viet Nam da timg budc dugc cai tbien; diy nhien, mire dg bao phii tai chinh cdn rat thap bon so
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vdi cac nude trong khu vyc. Vi vay, muc tieu ciia nghien ciiu nay xem xet cac nhan td thiic day va can fro den tai chinh toan dien tai Viet Nam thdng qua cac chi sd do ludng kha nang tilp can cac djch vu tai chinh chinh thiic cua bd gia dinh, sir dung bd dii lieu VARHS.
2.Tdng quan nghien cuu va phvo^g phap nghien ciru 2.1. Tong quan nghien cuv
Khai nidm ve tai chinh toan dien dugc phat trien dua tren cac y tuong ve tin dung vi md va tai chinh vi md. Co sd ly luan cd sy ddng thuan ddi vdi khai niem ve tai chinh toan dien nhu la each thiic va phuang tien tiep can va sir dyng rdng rai cac san pham va dich vy tai chinh. Cac thudc do tai chinh toan dien mang tinh da chieu, phan anh sy da dang ciia cac dich vu tai chinh, bi cac khoan thanh toan, chuyen tien va tiet kiem din tin dung, bao hiem, luong him va tbi trudng chimg khoan. Cac khia canh nay cd the dugc xac dinh khac nhau cho ca nhan va cho doanh nghiep. Gan day, theo AusAID (2010, 2), "viec md rdng, thdng qua hd \ia phat trien hoac cac phuong tien khac, vdi cac dich vu tai chinh cho ngudi ngheo hoac ngudi gap khd khan ma trudc day khdng the tiep can dugc dugc biet den bdi khai niem tai chinh toan dien"; Allen & cdng su (2016,2) dmh nghia "tai chinh toan dien nhu la viec sir dung cac dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic"; Sarma (2016, 4) khai niem "tai chinh toan dien ta mdt qua trinh dam bao sy tiep can de dang, tinh sfin cd va sir dung he thdng tai chinh chinh thirc cho tat ca cac thanh vien ciia nen kinh te".
Mdt khai niem ve tai cbinb toan dien dugc cdng nhan rdng rai dd la, "tai chinh toan dien la ty le ca nhan va doanh nghiep sudung djch vytai cbinb" (WB, 2014a, 2); va saudd (WB,20!8, l)neuramdt khai niem phiic tap bon: "Tai chinh toan dien nghTa la ca nhan va doanh nghiep cd dugc sy tiep can ddi vdi cac san pham va dich vu tai cbinb hiiu ich va gia ca phai chang dap ung nhu cau ciia bg ve giao dich, thanh toan, tiet kiem, tin dung va bao hiem mgt each trach nhiem va ben vung". Ciing vdi dd, khai niem "loai trir tai chinh"
(financial exclusion) nhu la mdt each dien dat khac ciia khai mem tai chinh toan dien. European Commission (2008,9) dinb nghia "Loai trir tai chinh dl cap din qua trinh theo dd ngudi dan gap khd khan khi tiep can va/
hoac su dung dich vy va san pham tai chinh tren tbj trudng chinh thirc phii hgp vdi nhu cau ciia hg va giiip hg cd mdt cudc sdng binh thudng". Nhu vay tat ca nhimg ngudi khdng cd tai khoan ngan hang, hoac khdng tilp can dugc bat ky dich vu tai chinh nao khac, hoac vdi mdt td chirc tai chinh chinh thiic nhu ngan hang, hgp tac xa tin dung, tin dung buu dien hoac td chirc tai chinh vi md deu nim trong sd bi loai trir,
Trong thyc tl, cd mgt qua trinh lien tue bi nhiing ngudi khdng sir dung dich vu tai chinh, den nhirng ngudi chi sii dung cac dich vu khdng chinh thirc thdng qua ngudi cho vay hoac thanh vien gia dinb, cho den nhimg ngudi vira sii dung mdt sd dich vu khdng chinh thiic va chinh thirc. va cudi ciing den nhung ngudi chi sir dung dich vu cbinb tbiic. Tai chinh toan dien khdng chi de cap den viec tiep can, ma cdn lien quan den viec sir dung va chit lugng dich vu tai chinh. Ngay ca nhung ngudi cd the tiep can cac dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic cung cd thi bi loai trir mgt pbin do thilu hoac bj ban che tiep can cac dich vu khac. Ben canh dd cung cin luu y cd mdt so ngudi bi loai dii mdt each X[i nguyen vi hg khdng cd du kha nang hoac chap nhan dich vu khdng chinh tbirc.
Da cd nhu'ng nghien ciru vl tai cbinb vi md nhu la mdt thanh td cua tai chinh toan dien, dac biet la d cac nude dang phat triln Cac nghien ciiu ban diu tap trung vao kinh nghiem ciia Ngan hang Grameen vdi cac khoan cho vay qui md nhd - dac trung cho tai cbinb vi md nhu la mdt cdng cu phat triln cd the giam ngheo, dac biet la cho phu nu (Pitt & Khandker, 1998). Chu d l co ban la viec tilp can tai chinh cd the giiip giam ngheo va bit binh ding bing each hd trg ngudi dan dau tu, dilu hda tieu diing va quan ly riti ro tai chinh cung nhu d pham vi rdng bon mang lai Igi ich cho xa hdi (nhu Aportela, 1999; Banerjee, 2004; Clarke &
cgng sy 2006; Demirguc-Kunt & cgng sy, 2008; Collins & cdng su, 2009; Demirguc-Kunt & Levine, 2009;
Karian & Morduch, 2010; Banerjee & Duflo 2011; Cull & cdng sy, 2013; Demirguc-Kunt & cgng sy, 2013;
Dupas & Robinson, 2013; Ruiz 2013; Bnibn & Love. 2014; Cull & cdng su, 2014; Park & Mercado, 2015;
Sahay & cgng sy, 2015; Klapper & cdng sy, 2016; Allen & cdng sy, 2016). Cac lap luan cho ring viec cung cip cac dich vu tai chinh cd thi tao ra ngoai iing (ngoai tac) tich cue dang kl khi cd nbieu ngudi va nhilu doanh nghiep tham gia, vdi sy sin cd cua cac djch vu tai chinh dap img nhu cau cu the cua ngudi diing ma khdng phan biet doi xii. Ngoai ra, viec six dung rdng rai hon cac dich vu tai chinh dugc thiic day bin su ddi mdi thdng qua dd giai quylt thit bai thi trudng, dap img nhu cau ciia ngudi tieu diing va khac phuc cac van
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de hanh vi (World Bank 2014a, 2014b).
^Tai chinh toan dien mang lai nhilu Igi ich dye tilp cho cac hg ngheo dang sir dyng cac khoan vay hoac tiet kiem de gia tang tieu dimg, cham sdc sire kbde hoac diu m mua sim hang hda lau bin, cai thi?n nha d hoac yang yai hgc phi (Collins & cgng sy, 2009). Ngay ca khi ddng tai chinh tang tnrdng thap hoac khdng co^ viec tiep can cac djch vy tai chinh ca ban cd tim quan trgng nhu la viec tich tu tai san; bdi vi khi thu nhap thap, cac chien luge tai chinh cin tap tmng phan Idn vao viec iing phd vdi bap benb cua thu nhap dl dap ung nhu cau luang thyc thyc pbim va cac nhu cau co ban khac. Cac san pham tai chinh cung cd thi giup ngudi ngheo quan ly nii ro. Ddi vdi cac hd gia dinh kha gia, cac cdng cu tai chinh trong danh muc diu dr ciia hg thudiig dugc quan ly dya yen nii ro va Igi nhuan; yong khi dd danh muc diu tu cua cac hd ngheo dugc quan ly de dam bao co the kiem dugc sd tiln mong mudn tai thdi dilm mong mudn. Ddi vdi hd ngheo, sy khan hiem va bap benh ciia ngudn tien kiln cho viec quan ly ddng tiln mat thudng dugc xem la cip bach hon so vdi viec tinh toan ket hgp tdt nhit giiia Igi nhuan va rui ro. Viec tang cudng ddng tiln do sy khdng phu hgp giua thu nhap va chi tieu dugc thyc bien thdng qua tiet kiem va tieu dung, nhung bdi \'i cac phuong tien phii hgp rat khd tim, cac hd ngheo thudng chuyen sang vay vdi qui md nhd thdng qua ban be, ngudi than, hang xdm va cbii doanh nghiep. Dd la mdt cdng viec khd khan, va cd chi phi cao - yong do cd ca chi phi mang tinh tam ly xa hgi chii khdng cbi la kinh te. Nhu vay, ddi vdi cac hg ngheo, viec cd cac cdng cu tai chinh thay the dang tin cay, thuan tien, gia ca hgp ly se tao ra su khac biet Idn; dang cbii y la viec giiip hg quan ly ddng tien vdi it rui ro hon (Collins & cdng sy, 2009). Them niia, cac he thdng va djch vu thanh toan ban le bieu qua, de tiep can va an toan cung rat quan ygng de md rdng tai chinh toan dien. Nghien ciiu cua Beck
& cdng sy (2013) chi rd he thdng tai chinh vdi su thdng tri ciia cac ngan hang cd quan b? vdi viec sir dung dich vu tai chinh vdi mire do thip han, yong khi cac td chirc tai chinh cip thip (nhu hgp tac xa. Hen hiep tin dung, va td chiic tai chinh vi md - MFI) va cac td cbiic, ca nhan chuydn cho vay (nhu cac cdng ty bao thanh toan va cho thue tai chinh) phu hgp cho viec tiep can tai chinh dd dang hon d cac nude thu nhap thap.
Da cd nhieu nghien cuu ve nhan td thiic day ciing nhu can trd viec tiep can tai chinh ca phia cung va phia cau. Trong do, mdi ddi tugng su dung dich vu cd nhu cau va dac diem khac nhau dan den nguyen nhan bi loai trir tai chinh khac nhau, Cac nhan td anh hudng den tai cbinb toan dien ddi vdi nhdm ngudi tieu dimg ea nhan va hg gia dinh nhu gidi tinh, do tudi, tinh trang bdn nhan, trinh do hgc van, thu nhap (Pena & cgng sy, 2014; Camara & cdng sy, 2014; Tuesta & cdng su, 2015). Cac yeu td thi trudng nhu sd lugng cac nha cung ling dich vu, dac diem nha cung iing dich vu, rao can dia ly anh hudng yyc tiep den sy phat tnen ciia tai chinh toan dien (Kumar, 2013; Pena & cdng sy, 2014; Tuesta & cgng sy, 2015). Cac yeu td ve tinh phii hgp cua san pham va dich vu tai chinh ddi vdi ngudi dan, dac biet vdi nhdm cd thu nhap thap; chang ban nhu yeu cau vl duy yi ban mire tdi thieu khi md tai khoan tai ngan hang qua cao, do vay nhieu tai khoan bi ddng khi khdng dap iing dugc dieu kien tren; hay nhirng san phSm tin dung doi bdi cac thu tue giay td chimg minh kha nang ya ng, cbi phi dich vu qua cao hoac cac tai san dam bao khien cho ngudi thu nhap thap khdng dap iing dugc; hay sy phirc tap ve thii tue hanh chinh va khd khan trong viec cung cap tai lieu cua ngudi tieu diing ciing khien hg khdng the dap iing yeu ciu ciia cac td ebirc tai chinh (Shankar, 2013;
Camara & cgng sy, 2014),
Ci Vidt Nam, da cd mgt so nghien ciiu ve tac dgng cua tin dung vi md va tai chinh vi md ddi vdi phiic Igi hg gia dinh va giam ngheo. Hau het cac nghien ciiu thyc nghiem sii dung dii lieu cheo, dir lieu bang, khao sat ban thyc nghiem va phuong phap thuc nghiem ngau nhien. Quacb & cgng sy (2005) cho thay tin dung ddng gdp tich eye va cd y nghTa thdng ke den phuc igi ciia hd gia dinh ve chi tieu binh quan dau ngudi; ban nira, tin dung cd anh hudng tich cue Idn hon den phuc Igi kinh te ciia cac hd ngheo. Ngoai ra, Pham & Lensink (2008) uoc tinh cac yeu td quyet djnh xac suat ciia viec hg gia dinh chgn vay dr tin dung chinh thiic, khdng chinh thiic hay ban chinh thiic d Viet Nam; Hg cho rang nhirng ngudi vay tir nhirng ngudi cho vay khdng chinh thirc se nii ro hon nhiing ngudi vay tir nhirng ngudi cho vay chinh thiic va ban chinh thiic. Tuang ty, Barslund & Tarp (2008) chi ra cac khoan vay chinh thiic gin nhu hoan toan danh cho san xuat va tich luy tai san, yong khi cac khoan vay khdng chinh thiic dugc sir dyng de dap img tieu diing. Gan day, Vuong (2012) cho thiy cac ylu td ve nguon tai san vdn ciia hd gia dinh, tinh yang bdn nhan, quy md gia dinh, khoang each din chg trung tam va vj yi cd anh hudng din ca xac suit va quy md khoan tin dung. Hon nira. Duong &
Nghiem (2014) chi ra su tham gia vao tai chinh vi md cd quan he ddng bien vdi tang thu nhap va tieu dimg
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nhung tac dong cua no den tinh trang giam ngheo Idiong dang kL 2.2.PhU(fngphdp va dit lieu nghien cihi
Kha nang tiep can va san pham da dang va phu hgp la ySu to quan trpng cua tai chinh toan dien tir quan diem nguoi tiSu dung. Mot thi truong da dang, canh tranh va doi moi la rat quan trpng de dat dupe miic dp tai chinh toan dien ben viing. Cm thien kha nang tigp can lam tang viec sir dung va mang lai nhi6u loi ich, bao gom tang thu nhap, dau tu san xujt va viec lam. Su phu hgp ciia cac san phSm co thS thuc dSy su hSp thu va sir dung ciing nhu tang su tham gia cua nhiijig nguoi Idiong dupe tiSp can tai chinh chinh thirc. Ngugc Iji, cac san pham phii hgp kem se khong co su hdp thu dang kS cung nhu sir dung lau dai, hoac co thS gay t6n hai cho ngudi tieu dung co thu nhap thSp. Trong nghien ciiu nay cac khia canh do lufmg tai chinh toan dien dugc sir dung la kha nang tiSp can, miic dp sii dung va chit lugng cac san phim va dich vu tai chinh chinh thuc; bao g6m: cac giao dich thanh toan - chuyen tita, tiet kiem, tin dung va bao hilm cua hg gia dmh vol cac t6 chiic tai chinh chinh thuc.
Boi vi tai chinh toan dien dupe do ludng boi cac kliia canh khac nhau, nghien cim xem xet cac nhan 16 anh huong dSn tai chinh toan dien bang each sir dung phuong phap h6i quy dii lieu gop va h6i quy tobit vol phuong trmh hoi quy tong quat nhu sau:
Chi so do lucmg tai chinh loan dien^ =f(nhdn to vi nhdn khdu. nhdn to vi kinh te - xd hoi, nhdn tS ve tiep can tdi chinh)
Mo hinh hoi quy tobit gia dinh rang co mpt bien an y (tiic la khong quan sat dupe) dugc giai thich bai vecto cua cac bien dpc lap X.
y,'
y ifj'i <y <yR
yi i f >'* ^ yi VR if>-* s yR
Ky vong khdng dieu kien cua y vdi vecto cua cac bien ddc lap X:
E{y, \X) = (l-<I)(-X,^/cr) 'x,P + <tT {-X^fila)
Trong dd: <£> la ham phan phoi chuan hda tich liiy va ^ la ham mat do xac suat chuan hda tich liiy. Md hinh bdi quy tobit la dang md hinh hdi quy bi kiem duyet (censored regression model), dugc thiet ke phii hgp de ude lugng mdi quan he giii'a cac bien kbi bien pbu thudc cd kiem duyet ben trai hoac ben phai (xem them Green, 2003).
Nghien cim sir dung bg dir lieu VARHS 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016. VARHS bao gdm khoang 3.000 bg gia dinh d 12 tinh - Lao Cai, Lai Chau, Pbu Thg, Dien Bien, Ha Tay (cu), Nghe An, Quang Nam, Khanh Hda, Dak Lak, Dak Ndng, Lam Ddng, Long An. Bang cau bdi hg gia dinb cung cap thdng tin ve dac diem chung ciia cac tbanli vien trong gia dinh; boat ddng ndng nghiep, cac boat dgng tao thu nhap khac; chi tieu;
tiep can tin dyng va cac dich vu khac,., Tren ca sd dd, cac dich vu tai chlnh tiep can bdi bg gia dinh dugc phan loai nhu sau:
Cac khoan tilt kiem cbinb tbiic bao gdm: tilt kiem buu dien; tien gui tiet kiem tai cac td chirc tai chinh chinh tbirc: Ngan hang Chinh sach Xa bdi Viet Nam (VBSP), Ngan hang Ndng nghiep va Phat triln Ndng thdn Viet Nam (VBARD), cac ngan bang thuong mai nha nude khac. ngan hang tir nhan, td chiic tin dung va cac td chiic tai chinh c6 dang ky khac. Cac khoan bet kiem khdng chinh thiic bao gdm: tien giri tai cac nhdm tin dung va tilt kiem luan pbien (ROSCA) (hdi. hui, phuong...) tien mat / vang / yang sire tai nha, tiln giri tu nhan va cac klioan tiet kiem khac vdi ngirdi than va tap the.
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Cac khoan vay tir cac to chirc tai chinh chinh thiic bao g6m: Ngan hang VBSP, Ngan hang VBARD. cac ngan hang thuong mai nha nuoc khac, chinh quyta dja phuong, ngan hang tu nhan. Hoi Nong dan, Hgi cuu chien binh, Hpi phu nii, Quy tin dung nhan dan, cac hiep hgi tin dung khac; Cac khoan vay khong chinh thiic bao gom; vay tu nhan, vay tir ban be / ngucri than, cac nhom tm dung va tiet ki?m luan phien (ROSCA) (hgi, hui, phucmg,...) va nhiing nguoi khac.
Bao hiem tu nguyen bao gom bao hi6m nhan thg, bao higm xa hgi tu nguyen. bao hi^m giao due va cac bao hiem tu nguyen khac; Bao hiem bit huge bao gom bao hiSm xa hgi bit buoc, bao hijm y lij. bao hiem that nghiep, bao hiem y te miin phi cho nguoi ngheo, bao hi^m y te mien phi cho tre em, bao hiem xe cp va cac lo^i bao hiem bit huge khac.
Nhu vay, trong pham vi nghien cim nay Tai chinh toan dien dugc xem xet thong qua 2 bi^n ta FI, va FI,:
(1) bien Kha nang tiep can cac dich vu tai chinh chinh thiic FI,, voi
trong do: FS^ la chi so tilp can djch vu tai chinh i, S la chi so thanh phin vl kha nang tilp can djch vu tiet kiem, C la chi sd thanh phin ve kha nang tiep can dich vu tin dung, I la chi sd thanh phan \e kha nang tiep can djch vy bao hiem ty nguyen. Vdi Chi sd thanh phan ve kha nang tiep can dich \ u tai cbinb i (FS ) dugc xac dinh bang tdng sd dich vy tai cbinb chinh thiic dugc tilp can bdi hd gia dinb chia cho tdng sd ngudi tiurdng thanh (ngudi bi 18 tudi yd len) cua hd va dugc cbi sd hda dr 0 - 1 (0: loai trir toan dien, 1: tiep can toan dien); Va (2) bien Mire do sir dung cac djch vu tai chinh chinh thiic FI,, vdi FI, la Tdng gia yj bang tien ciia cac khoan tiet kiem, vay vdn va bao hiem tu nguyen cua hg gia dinh vdi cac td chiic tai chinh chinh thiic chia cho tdng sd ngudi trudng thanh ciia hg (don vj tinh: nghin ddng). Thdng ke md ta cac bien tir dii lieu VARHS dugc the bien yong Bang 1. Cac chi sd do lucmg Tai chinh toan dien cua Viet Nam giai doan 2008 - 2016 cd xu hudng gia tang, cho thay kha nang tiep can ciing nhu miic do bao phii ve tai chinh d Viet Nam dang dugc cai tbien, tuy nhien van cdn d miic rat thap. Nam 2010 cd gia trj trung binh ciia bien FI, cao han dang ke so vdi cac nam khac, dieu nay dugc giai thich chii yeu la do vao thdi diem dd cd su md rdng nhanh ve sd lugng va qui md ciia cac td chiic tai chinh, nhat la viec thanh lap cac ngan bang mdi (xem them Bang 1).
Vdi CO sd dii lieu hien cd, cac nhan td ve nhan khau hgc la mdt vecto ciia cac bien: tudi cua chii hd, gidi Bang 1. Thong ke md ta bien Kha nang tiep can c^c djch vu tai chinh chinh thirc Fli
va bien Mirc do su dung cac dich vu tai chinh chinh thirc FI2 FIi
2008 2010
2012 2014 2016 FIi 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Obs 3267 3204
3685 3643 2669
Mean 0,06 0,14
0,08 0,04 0,10
Std. Dev.
0,08 0,12
0,10 0,06 0,12
Min 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
Median 0,04 0,11
0,06 0,00 0,07
Max 0,67 1,00
1,00 0,67 1,00
3267 3204 3685 3643 2669
2.027 3.688 5.336 3.367 8S9S
12.051 14.026 35.351 25.992 45.265
0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
0,0 0,0 0,0 0.0 0,0
447.645 479.060 1.416.747 1 -000.000 1 200 000 Ngudn: Tinh todn ciia ldc gid theo dir lieu VARHS 2nns, 2010. 2012. 2014. 2016.
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klobleJ'hiii Irien
Bane 2, Kit qua hoi guy tobit Kha nang tiSp can cac dich vu tai chlnh chinh Ihi
Bi^n giai thich Tuoi ciia chu hO Giai tinh ciia chii hQ(Nij=l) Tinh Irane hon nhan (Da Icel h6n=l)
Chu hp la ngircn dan toe ihieu so (Khong phai dan toe Kinh-1)
So nam di hgc cua chu hg
Chii hp sinh slnfi 6 khu virc nong thon fNong thon-l) Hg ngheo (Hp nEheo=l)
Ty 1$ phu thuge Lao dpng thuan nong nghiep HO c6 ngucri di cir den tinh khac
logarit cua thu nhap hp gia dinh tuoTig ducmg da digu chinh cpi
logarit cua gia in bang ti^n tuotig du'ang ciia cac manh dat da dieu chinh cpi
logarit eiia gia tri bang tien tucmg ducmg ciia cac hang hoa lau bSn da digu chinh cpi
Nam__2010
Khoang each tir nha din c^e to chile tai chinli So lupng manh dSl eo so do da di^u chiiih Tiep can dieh vy tai chinh Ihong qua internet (eo giao dieh qua intemet= 1)
eons /sigma /sigma /sigma /sigma
Number of observaUons
Bien phu thuoc: Fit - Kho nang liip cgm cac djch vu lai chinh chinh l/iirc Mo hinh 1
-0,000***
0.011**
-0.019***
0.040***
0.003***
0,019**
0.159***
15.508
Mo hinh 2 -0,001***
0.009 -0.030***
0.042***
0.003***
0.006 -0.051***
-0.006***
0.OJ9***
0,015***
0 066***
0 145***
11,213
Mo hinh 3 -0 001***
0.005 -0.032***
0.010**
0,002***
0.003 -0.031***
-0.005*
0,015**
0.003 0,032***
0 005***
-0 005***
0.130***
-0.270***
0136***
6,435
M6 hinh 4 -0 002***
0014 -0.050**
-0.002 0.001 0.014 0.023 0.016**
0.029 -0 012 0.022***
0 009**
-0.019***
-0,000 0 012***
0 005 0 025
0.131'**
707 Ghi chii Miic y nghia 0! -
tinh chii hg, tinh trang hon nhan, dan tdc, khu vuc sinh sdng, cac nhan td ve kinn te - xa hdi la mdt vecto ciia cac bien; tinh trang hgc van ciia chii hg, ty le phu thudc, cac thanh vien ciia bg tham gia vao cac hoat dgng kinh tc thuan ndng nghiep, trong hd cd ngudi di cu den tinh khac, hd ngheo (theo chuan cua Bg Lao dgng - Thuang binh va Xa hgi); thu nhap ciia hd, gia bi cua dat dai thudc sd hiiu cua hd, cac manh dat thudc sd huu cua hg da dugc cap sd dd, gia tn tai san lau ben; cac nhan td \ e tiep can tai chinh la mdt vecto ciia cac bien: Khoang each tir nha den cac diem giao djch dich vu tai chinh; tiep can dich vu tai cbinb thdng qua internet. Chuan doan phuong sai thay ddi va da cdng tuyen bang phan tich tuong quan vdi miic y nghia 5%, cho thay co hien tuong phuang sai thay ddi va nhdm cac bien \ e tinh trang kinh te cua hg gdm thu nhap cua hg, gia tri cua dat dai thudc sd hii"u ciia hg, gia tri tai san lau ben la cac bien cd tuong quan cap vdi da so cac bien khac, tuy nhien day ciing la mdt dac diem chung ciia cac nghien cim theo tiep can nay. Vi vay cac bien thu nhap cua hd, gia tri ciia dat dai thuge sd hiru ciia hd, gia tri tai san lau ben dugc bien ddi tuong duong, dieu chinh mire gia va logarit hda.
So 279 thdng 9/2020 79
kinhleAllricn
Bang 3. Ket qua h6i quy tuy^n tinh Mirc do
Bien giai thich
Tuoi cua chu hg Gioi tinh eiia chii ho (Nir=l) Tinh tran^ hon nhan (Da kit hon^l)
Chii hp la ngucri dan toe thieu s6 (Khong phai dan tpe Kinh^l)
So nam di hgc ciia chii hg
Chu hg sinh sona d khu vue nong ihon (Nong thon^l) Ho ngheo (Ho ngheo=l)
Ty le pjiu thupc Lao dgng thuan nong nghiep Hp CO nguoi di cu den linh khac
logarit ciia thu nhap hg gia dinh tucmg duang da dieu chinh cpi
logant eua gia tn bang tien tuong duong ciia cae manh dat da dieu chinh cpi
logaril eiia gia tn bang tien tuong duong ciia cae hang hoa lau ben da dieu chinh cpi
Nam_20]0
Khoang each tu nha den cac to chiic lai chinh So lupTig manh dat c6 so do da dieu chinh Tiep can dieh vu tai chinh thong qua intemel (co giao dieh qua inlemet=l)
cons
Number of observations R=
Adjusted R-
su- dung cac dich vy tai chinh chinh thiic Bien phi; thuoc: InFIj - Logant cua Tong gid tri bang
lien ciia cdc khoan tiel ki^m. vay von va bao fiiem V ngiiy4n ciia ho gia dinh vdi cdc to chirc tai chinh chinh
thitc chia cho lone so nsirc" tnr^o thnnh riia lip Mo hinh 1
0.016***
0.153 -0.111
•0.036 0 068***
7 284***
4,079 0 045 0.043
Mo hinh 2 0.009***
0.082 -0.282**
-0 029 0.076***
0.034 -0 507***
-0.172***
0.174 -0.104
8 084***
2,907 0.080 0.077
Mo hinh 3 0.007'*
0.022 -0.097 0 144 0.034***
0.161 0.054 -0.078 0.185 -0.115 0.759***
0.117***
-0.032 -0 370**'
-0 581 1,801 0.208 0.202
Mo hinh 4 0.007 -0.300 -0.332 0.102 0 044**
0.111 -0.180 0.037 -0.374 -0.267 0.551***
0.196***
-0.118**
0 012**
0,134*
0.488 1 292 499 0.180 0.153 Ghi chii, Mue y nghTa .01
3.Ket qua va thao luan
Ket qua phan tich bdi qui dugc binh bay trong cac Bang 2 va Bang 3. Nhdm cac nhan td lien quan den dac diem cua chu hg, cac he sd ude lugng ciia bien Sd ndm di hoc ciia chu hg cd gia tri ducmg va cd y nghTa thdng ke; dieu nay cho thay tinh trang hgc van la nhan td thiic day tai chinh toan dien. Trong khi dd. cac he sd ude lugng cua bien Tinh trgng hdn nhdn dd ket hon cd gia tri am va cd y nghTa thong ke; cho thay bdn nhan la nhan td can trd tai chinh toan dien. Cac dac diem nay tuong ddng vdi nhieu nghien cim a cac nude tren the gidi. Ben canh do, cac he sd ude lugng cua cac bien Giai tinh cua chu hg Id nir, chu hd sinh sdng a khu viK ndng thdn khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke d mirc 10%; cho thdy d Viet Nam gan nhu khdng cd su khac biet dang kd trong tiep can tai cbinb chinh thiic giiia nam va nii, ciing nhu giira khu vuc thanh thanh \ a ndng thdn. Mgt phat hien dang chii y so vdi cac nghien ciiu khac la cac h? sd uoc lugng ciia cac bien Chii hd Id ngirdi ddn toe thiiu so cd gia trj duong va cd y nghTa thdng ke ddi vdi bien pbu thudc la Kha ndng tiep can cdc dich v\i tdi chinh chinh thirc Ff (xem Bang 2); dieu nay cd thd dugc giai thich do cd mgt so tac dgng
So 279 thdng 9/2020
kJBhtpJ'liiinrJi'
tich cue ciia cac chinh sach lien quan den tiep can tai chinh d Viet Nam trong giai doan 2008 - 2016 nhu cac chinh sach, chuong frinh hd b-g tin dung, tin dung tin thac va bao hidm y td miin phi cho ngudi ddng bao dan tdc thieu sd.
Nhdm cac nhan td lien quan ddn dac diSm ciia hg, nhu cac hg cd lao ddng thu§n ndng nghiep va hd cd ngudi di cu den tinh khac cd tac dgng tich cue den kha nang tiep can tai chinh chinh thirc ciia hg; biy nhien ty le phu thudc cao ciing nhu tinh ttang ngheo lai can trd kha nang tiep can tai chinh cua hd,
Nhdm cac nhan td lien quan den tinh trang kinh te ciia bg, cac he sd ude lugng cua bidn Logarit cua thu nhap hd gia dinh tuang duang da dieu chinh chi so gid tieu dung (CFI), Logarit ciia gid tri bdng tien tuang duang ciia cdc mdnh dat da dieu chinh CFI cd gia fri duong va cd y nghTa thong ke; didu nay thd bien tinh trang kinh td cua hg cd mdi lien he chat che va thiic dSy tai chinh toan dien. Khi hd cd thu nhap cao bon va tich m tai san Idn hon se cd kha nang tidp can dich vu tai cbinb cao bon va thuc hien cac giao dich vdi quy md Idn hon. Mat khac, cac he sd uoc lugng ciia bien logarit cua gid tri bang tiin tuang dirang ciia cdc hdng hoa lau ben da dieu chinh CFI cd gia bi am va cd y nghia thdng ke; dieu nay dugc giai thich khi hd gia dinh cd xu hudng tieu dimg Idn hon cho bang boa lau bdn dan den giam cac giao dich tai chinh (xem them Bang 2 va Bang 3),
He sd ude lugng ciia bidn Khoang each tic nhd den cdc to chuc tdi chinh khdng cd y nghia thdng ke d miic 10%, cho thay trong giai doan nay khoang each ve dia ly khdng phai nhan td can trd tai chinh toan dien;
trong khi do, cac he sd ude lugng cua bien So luong mdnh dat co so do dd dieu chinh cd gia tri duong va cd y nghTa thdng ke, dieu nay the bien dac diem tuong dong vd anh hudng ciia nhiing san phSm tin dung ddi hdi cac thii tue giay td chung minh kha nang tra ng (trong do cd viec cim co so dd) ddn tai chinh toan di?n d Viet Nam va cac nude. Ben canh do, Tiep can dich vu tdi chinh thong qua internet cua hd cd tac dgng tich cue den tai chinh toan dien.
4.Ket luan va ham y chinh sach
Mgt sd ket luan va ham y chinh sach dugc dua ra nham gdp phan day manh tai chinh toan dien d Viet Nam, cu the la:
Thir nhat, nang cao trinh do hgc van ciing vdi viec nang cao su bieu biet ve tai chinh ciia chii bd, nhat la nir chu hd thdng qua cac chuang trinh giao due va dao tao la nlian td gdp phan thiic day tai chinh toan dien;
Thii hai, tiep tue ddi mdi chinh sach bd trg tiep can tai cbinb cho khu vuc ndng thdn, mien niii thdng qua cac chuang trinh tai chinh toan dien, song song vdi viec khach hang cd the chuyen ddi linh boat tir dich vu ciia cac td chiic tai chinh vi md sang dich vii cua he thdng ngan hang, vdi cac loai hinh td cbiic cung cap dich vu mdi nhu mang ludi dai ly va td cbiic phi ngan bang khac, da dang hda san pham, tao thanh chudi cung ting dich vu vdi md hinh kinh doanh tiep can vdi kbacb hang dua tren cac nen tang cdng nghe thdng tm;
Thii ba, tang cudng va hoan thien hanh lang phap ly tai chmh (nhu luat giao dich sd), dau tu ha tang tai chlnh theo hudng img dung cong nghe tai chinh nham giam thieu cac nhan td can trd ve vat ly va tbii tue giay td ddi vdi khach hang, nhat la nhdm dan tdc thieu so, nhdm ngheo;
Tbii tu, Idng ghep cac chuong b-inh ti-uyen thdng va tu van kien thuc tai chinh vdi bao ve ngudi deu diing nham giam thieu cac riii ro
Lffi thii'a nhSn/Cam o-n: Nghien cini ndy duae tdi ri-a bdi Quy Phdt men Khoa hpc vd Cong nghe Dgi hoc Dd Ndng trong di tdi md sS B2018-BN04-08: dicgc hd tro ve hgc thuat vd tai chinh tir Chirang trinh hgc bong Australia ngdn h(in cda Bg Ngoai giao vd Thirang mai (DAFT) (R170155) tai Dai hoc Cdng nghe Swinburne, mang ten "Tdng cudng ndng luc nghien cim chinh sdch trong ho Ira phdi trien Vie! Nam" tir ihdng 4 - thang 5 ndm 2018, vd Ban chu nhiem Be tdi trgng diem Nhd nuac KXO 1.30/16-20 - Gidi phdp thiic day idi chinh todn dien tai Vi^t Nam.
Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 81 Kji)|| ifj»|iai (rjen
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