TAI CHlNH-TIEN TE
Kinh te phi chinh thirc:
quy mo va nhCmg ham y ve tiem nang thue
P H A M T H I B I C H DUYEN N G U Y E N T H A I HOA
hghien cdu lidc tinh quy mo nen kinh tephi chinh thdc d Viet Nam va xu hiidng phat
• trien cua no trong giai doan 1995 ~ 2015, td do, Udc liidng sd thu thuS'bi thdi thoat cua Viet Nam do khu vtic kinh tephi chinh thdc gay ra. Nghien cdu sd dung phitong phap mo hinh MIMIC de xac dinh quy mo kinh te'phi chinh thdc diia vao cac nguyen nhan quan sat duoc trong nen kinh te. Ket qui cho thay, quy mo kinh tephi chinh thdc cua ViSt Nam hiSn con Idn, khoang 15-27% GDPva co xu hiidng gia tang manh td nam 2007 cho den nay. Vdi quy md kinh te phi chinh thdc hien tai, sothuebi that thoat hang nam cua Vidt Nam tiiOng doi Idn, dat ra nhdng mdi quan tam can thie't trong viec kiem soat va thu hep pham vi cua khu vdc nay.
Ttf k h o a : nen kinh td'phi chinh thdc, md hinh MIMIC, tiem nang thud'.
1. G i d i t h i e u
Sfl hien dien cua kinh te' phi chinh thfle la ta't yeu khach quan, ton tai song song vdi nd'n kinh te chinh thfle, chiu sfl tac dong cua cac quy luat kinh te'va cac chinh sach kinh te - xa hdi 6 nhflng mflc do khac n h a u tuy thude vao tflng qudc gia. Mac du no cd nhflng vai trd nha't dinh trong viec xda ddi giam nghdo, tao thdm viec lam, tang t h u n h a p cho ngfldi lao dong, dac biet la d cac nfldc dang phdt trien;
thd" nhflng ve dai han, sfl ton tai cua kinh te' phi chinh thfle lai cho tha'y nhidu rui ro t i l m an. Ngoai vide lam giam tinh hieu qua trong cac quye't dinh chinh sach, trong sfl phan bd nguon Iflc va giam do tin cdy cua cac thd'ng ke chinh thfle, thi k h u vflc kinh td' phi chinh thfle cdn gay r a tinh trang tha't thoat ngudn thu thue', giam n a n g sua't va sflc canh t r a n h cua nen kinh td. Theo Gangadha va cong sfl (2011), vdi quy md kinh td'phi chinh thfle tfl 17,6% GDP den 35,7% GDP thi mflc tha't t h u thud'tfldng flng tfl 3,5% GDP de'n 6,1% GDP.
Vi vdy, nhieu quo'c gia mong mud'n kiem soat va giam quy md cua k h u vflc nay.
Da CO nhid'u nghien cflu xoay q u a n h kinh te phi chinh thfle trdn thd' gidi, nhflng d Viet Nam v I n chfla cd nhie'u sfl q u a n t a m ve k h u
vflc nay cung nhfl nhflng tac ddng cua nd de'n ngudn t h u thue' noi rieng va tdng the nen kinh td' ndi chung. Viec tim hieu quy md kinh td' phi chinh thfle cua Viet Nam vd tac dong ciia nd dd'n ngudn t h u thud' se Id cd sd de de xua't cac chinh sach cai each nham thu hep pham vi cua khu vflc nay, qua dd giup tang cfldng sflc canh t r a n h cua n l n kinh te', cai thien nang sud't lao ddng, cai thien nguon t h u thud'va dam bao sfl on dinh cua can can ngan sach. Nghien cflu nay dfldc thfle Men n h a m giai quyet cac ydu c i u cap thie't tren.
2. Ctf scf l y t h u y e t
H l u hd't cac dinh nghia d i u cho rdng kinh td' phi chinh thfle bao gdm td't ea cac hoat ddng kinh te' khdng dfldc tinh toan vdo tong san pham qud'c gia va khd ed thd do Ifldng dfldc (Feige, 1996). Smith (1994) nhdn dinh:
"Kinh td' phi chinh thfle bao gdm ta't ca cdc hoat ddng kinh td xay r a trdn thi trfldng hang hda va dich vu, bd't kg' hdp phap hay khdng, khdng dfldc do Ifldng va tinh toan vao gia tri GDP cua mot qud'c gia". Mac du dinh n g h i a cdn chfla nhd't q u a n , nhflng nhflng Pham Thi Bi'ch DuySn, TS., Tnrdng dai hoc Quy Nhon; Nguyin Thai H6a, ThS., NgSn hkng TMCP Ngoai thuong Viet Nam - Chi nhinh Nam D^ NSng.
N0iiin aiu Kinh tis6l(500) - Thdng 1/2020 5 1
Kinh te phi chinh ihiirc ...
nguyen nhan d i n de'n sfl xua't hien va gia tang quy md cua khu vflc phi chinh thfle lai tfldng dd'i ro rang v l m a t ly thuye't. Cd 3 nguyen nhan chinh nhfl sau:
2.1. Gdnh nang thue va cdc khoan ddng gdp xa hoi
Gdnh nang thue va cac khoan ddng gdp an sinh xa hoi la nguyen n h a n quan trong d i n de'n sfl gia tang quy md cua k h u vflc kinh td' phi chinh thfle (Schneider va Enste, 2000, 2002; Schneider, 2010). Theo Schneider va Enste (2002), chinh sach thue' va phuc Idi xa hdi tac ddng nhieu den t h u n h a p trflde va sau thue. Gang nhieu khoan ddng gdp thi thu nhap thfle nhan sau thue' cua ngfldi lao dong se tha'p di va ne'u khoan chenh lech nay cang Idn thi ddng cd de ngfldi lao dong t h a m gia vao khu vflc kinh te' phi chinh thfle cang gia tang. Sfl chenh lech nay phu thuoc ra't nhidu vao he thd'ng an sinh xa hdi va ganh nang thue' d mdi qud'c gia. Ddy khdng chi Id va'n de eua thud sua't cao, ma cdn la khoan chi phi giao dich lien quan den t h u tuc h a n h chinh.
Ta't ca cac khoan chi phi chinh thfle va khdng chinh thfle nay tao nen ganh nang tong the cua thue'. Ben canh do, cac khoan ddng gdp xa hdi gdp p h i n lam gia tang chi phi eua lao ddng trong khu vflc chinh thfle, khuyd'n khich ngfldi lao ddng r u t r a khoi khu vtic chinh thfle de t h a m gia vao k h u vflc phi chinh thfle nhdm giam cac ganh nang ehi phi va trdn thue'.
Gii thuye't Hi: ganh nang thue'cang cao, quy md cua khu viic kinh te'phi chinh thd cang tang.
2.2. He thong phdp luat, the che vd chinh pha
Mdt he thdng chinh sach cdng kenh, hay cac quy dinh, t h u tuc quan lieu vd hinh chung lam gia tang cac khoan chi phi giao dich cho doanh nghiep va ngfldi lao dong trong nen kinh te chinh chflc. Hdn nfla, nhflng khoan chi phi nay thfldng dfldc cac doanh nghiep chuyen sang cho ngfldi lao dong ganh chiu. Do dd, cdng cho ho mdt dong
ed Idn de chuydn vao k h u vflc phi chinh thfle (Schneider va Enste, 2000).
Ben canh dd, nd'u cha't Ifldng thd chd' tha'p, n a n t h a m n h u n g cao di cung vdi sfl thid'u trach nhidm va minh bach eua chinh phu la ddng ed de ngfldi d a n t h a m gia vao khu vflc kinh te' n g l m - ndi dfldc xem Id an toan va hieu qua hdn so vdi k h u vflc chinh thfle. Sfl phat trien cua khu vflc phi chinh thfle dfldc xem nhfl mdt sfl t h ^ t bai cua hd thd'ng the ch^ trong viec thuc day ndn kinh te' thi trfldng hieu qua (Buehn va Schneider, 2012).
Gii thuye't H2: hieu qui cua he thdng phap luat, the che' td't va it tham nhiing se lam giam quy md cua khu vUc kinh te phi cliinh thdc.
2.3. Su suy gidm cua khu vuc kinh te chinh thitc
Sfl gia tang quy md cua kinh \M phi chinh thfle cung xua't p h a t tfl sfl suy giam eiia khu vflc kinh te' chinh thfle (Schneider vd Enste, 2002; Schneider, 2010). Cac nghien cflu chi r a r&ng, k h u n g hoang kinh td' b ckc nfldc dang phat trien thfldng gay r a tinh trang tha't nghiep cao, lam phat, nd cdng va nd xau gia tang; ca n h a n , doanh nghiep trong nhieu trfldng hdp phai p h a san, ma't vide lam.
NhQng he liiy ndy da thuc d l y ca nhan va doanh nghidp gia n h a p vao khu vflc kinh te' phi chinh thfle. Romero (2010) cung chi ra si(
tdn tai cua k h u vflc k i n h te' n g l m khdng chi bdi sfl khac n h a u ve ky nang cua ngfldi lao ddn, md cdn bdi sfl thid'u vide lam trong khu vflc chinh thfle. Dd'i vdi eac nfldc mdi noi va dang phat trien, xu hfldng cdng nghidp hda n h a n h chdng cung vdi sfl t a n g trfldng nhanh cua dan sd' khie'n cho n h u e l u tim vide h khu vflc kinh te chinh thfle trd ndn canh tranh gay g i t hdn. Trong k h i k h u vflc nay khdng the ha'p t h u het n h u cau viec lam cua ngfldi lao ddng thi khu vflc phi chinh thfle se la Ifla chon thay thd' td't hdn.
Gii thuye't Ha khi khu viXc lanh te' chinh thdc suy glim, thdi nghiep gia tang se gdp phSn lam gia tang quy md kinh td'phi chinh thdc.
52 Nghiin cOu Kinh t^s6'l(500) - Thing 1/2020
Kinh 16'phi chinh thiic
2.4. Cdc nguyen nhdn khdch quan khdc Ben canh cac nguydn n h d n trflc quan, cdn cd ra't nhid~u nguyen n h a n tid'm I n d i n den sfl xua't hidn va t a n g trfldng cua kinh te phi chinh thfle. C h a n g h a n , t a p q u a n kinh doanh nhd le, quy md hd gia tfinh, thfldng thuc day sfl gia t a n g quy md cua kinh td' phi chinh thfle; bdi nhflng ngfldi tfl lam chu, tfl kinh doanh vdi quy mo nhd le thfldng it a m h i i u luat phap, n h d n thfle v a y thfle t u a n t h u eon chfla eao nen thfldng ed h o a t dong d k h u vflc phi chinh thfle n h a m mue dich thoat khdi sfl kidm soat cua cdc cd quan chflc nang.
Gii thuye't H4: ty le tii kinh doanh, tti lam vide cang cao, quy md kinh td'phi chinh thdc cang Idn.
3. P h f l d n g p h a p d o liidfng q u y m o k i n h t e p h i c h i n h t h i J c
HINH 1: Mo h i n h M I M I C
Nghien eflu t a p t r u n g vao each tid'p can dfla tren md hinh MIMIC (Multiple-Indicators Multiple-Cause), bao gom: md hinh do Ifldng dung de lien ke't eac chi so' quan sat dfldc vdi eac chi so khdng q u a n sat dfldc va md hinh ca'u true SEM d u n g de xac dinh moi quan he n h a n qua gifla cac chi so trdn. Trong trfldng hdp nay, quy md k i n h td' phi chinh thfle la bie'n khdng q u a n s a t dfldc theo chudi thdi gian (bid'n dn) va dfldc do Ifldng theo eac bie'n chi bao dfla tren cac bien nguyen nhan gay xua't hidn kinh te' phi chinh thfle. Do do, vide danh gia quy md kinh td' phi chinh thfle dfldc thfle hien thdng qua vide flde Ifldng va danh gia md'i quan he cua cac bie'n trong md hinh MIMIC. Ve cd ban, md h i n h MIMIC dfldc xay dflng tren cac bie'n dn va bien quan sat cu thd nhfl h i n h 1.
v^ k i n h t e p h i c h i n h thtjfc
Nguydn nhdn Cht bdo
Sirphdttriln cOa kinhte phi chinh thdc
in)
NguSn: Schneider v^ Enste (2000).
Ca'u true cua md h i n h M I M I C gdm 2 phan, D i u tien, k i n h td' p h i c h i n h thfle se dfldc lien kd't vdi cac chi b a o q u a n s a t dfldc (cac ehi b a o n a y p h a n a n h sfl t h a y d6i trong quy md cua k h u vflc k i n h te' p h i chinh thfle) thdng qua mo h i n h do Ifldng. P h i n thfl h a i la md h i n h phfldng t r i n h cd'u trflc (SEM) giai t h i c h md'i q u a n hd gifla k i n h te' phi chinh thfle vdi cac bie'n n g u y e n n h a n gay tac dong len n o .
Md h i n h ca'u trflc c6 phfldng trinh nhfl
I]=Y'X-\- <(1)
Trong dd: X = (xi, xa, ..., Xq) la ma t r a n (q*l) va mdi x., i = 1, 2, ..., q Id nhflng nguyen n h a n gay xua't hien kinh te phi chinh thfle - bie'n 77; / = ( / j . YZ^ •••> Yq) la be so'hdi quy, md ta mdi quan hd gifla bid'n an va cac nguyen n h a n gay ra nd; ^ la p h i n nhieu cua mo hinh cd'u trflc.
Md hinh do Ifldng cd phfldng trinh nhfl
Nghiin aiu Kinh tSs61(500) • Thing 1/2020 5 3
Kinh te phi chinh thuc ,
y = Af7 + £ (2)
Trong do: y = (yi, yi, ..., yp) la cac chi bao quan sdt dfldc (p*l); >. la he so" flde Ifldng eua phfldng trinh hoi quy va s la sai sd' eua phfldng trinh do Ifldng.
Khi phfldng t r i n h (1) va (2) dfldc ke't hdp, mot phfldng trinh h6i quy da bid'n dfldc hinh t h a n h vdi cac bie'n noi sinh y,, j = 1, 2, ..., p la cac ehi bao cua kinh te' phi chinh thfle rj va cac bien ngoai sinh x,, i = 1, 2, ..., q la cac nguyen n h a n gay xua't hien k h u vflc kinh te phi chinh thfle 7}. Phfldng trinh dfldc b i l u d i i n nhfl sau:
Tfl (2) ta cd: TJ = A"^(y - s). Thay vao (1) ta dfldc:
Y'X+<;=r^(y-s)
« y = XY'X + >^<; + £
«=» y= nX + 'z
Trong dd: n = 'ky' ^^ ^ ^ trdn bae 1 va z =
?. <; + e la sai sd', z -^ N (0, Q)
Nhfl vay, bfldc dau tien trong md hinh MIMIC la xac dinh cdc mdi quan he gia thuye't gifla kinh td' phi chinh thfle (bie'n an) va cac nguyen nhan. Sau khi xac dinh cac md'i quan he va flde tinh eac thdng sd' thi ke't qua eua md hinh MIMIC dfldc sfl dung d l tinh toan chi sd MIMIC.
Phfldng phap MIMIC chi cho r a mdt flde tinh tfldng dd'i ve kich cd cua k h u vflc kinh te phi chinh thfle thdng qua chi so'. Do vay, de cd the flde tinh quy md cung nhfl xu hfldng cua khu vflc tren, can mdt bfldc chuyen ddi tfl chi so' MIMIC sang con sd' thfle te. Dfla tren cac nghien eflu trflde, each thid't Idp mdt diem chuan (benchmarking) dfldc sii dung pho bie'n de tie'n h a n h qud trinh nay. Theo dd, dilm chuan dfldc xac dinh dfla tren viee chon gia tri cua mot nam lam cd sd cho viec quy doi thdng qua cdng thfle sau:
Trong dd: ^^ Id quy md khu vflc kinh te phi chinh thfle dfldc chuan hda, fj, la chi so MIMIC tai thdi d i l m t dfldc flde tinh theo phfldng trinh hdi quy, r\^ la chi so chi BO MIMIC tai n a m cd sd dfldc flde tinh theo phfldng trinh hoi quy va i^^ la quy khu vii;
kinh te' phi chinh thfle d n a m cd sd.
4. M o h i n h v a dvt l i e u n g h i e n cxtu 4.1. Md hinh nghien cvCu 4.1.1. Nhdm bien nguyen nhan (i) Ganh n a n g thud' va cac khoan ddng gdp xa hoi dfldc xac dinh b a n g ty le phan tram cua doanh t h u t h u e so vdi GDP (Schneider va Enste, 2000, 2002; Schneider, 2010).
(ii) T h i chC hd thd'ng phap ludt va_ chinh phu dfldc phan a n h thdng qua bd Chi sd quan tri toan c i u (Worldwide Governance Indicators - WGI) do Ngdn h a n g The' gidi cdng bo' hdng n a m nhdm do Ifldng cam nhdn cua cdng chflng va doanh nghidp ve nhieu khia canh khac n h a u cua t h i che', he thong luat phap va chinh phu. Nghien eflu sfl dung 3 trong so"
6 chi so'WGI sau day:
- Hidu qua ciia chinh phu: do Ifldng cam nhdn ve cha't Ifldng cua eac dich vu cdng cong va cac dich vu d a n sfl ma chinh phu cung cd'p; cha't Ifldng xay dflng chinh sach va do tin cay eiia nhflng cam ke't tfl chinh phu ddi vdi cac chinh sach.
- Tid'ng ndi va trach nhidm giai trinh: do Ifldng cam n h d n vd mflc do t h a m gia cua ngfldi dan vao viec Ifla chon chinh phu, xay dflng chinh sach, sfl hay td quan diem cua ngfldi ddn va trach nhiem giai trinh eua chinh phii trflde ddn chflng.
- Nha nfldc phap quydn: do Ifldng cam nhan v l mflc do tin cay cua ngfldi dan va doanh nghiep ve he thd'ng luat phap • tinh thfldng tdn p h a p luat.
Cac chi sd' nay n a m h mflc -2,5 dd'n 2,5 vdi d i l m so eao tfldng flng vdi ke't qua td't.
Ngoai ra, dd do Ifldng mflc do t h a m nhung, nghidn cflu sfl dung chi sd' cam n h a n tham
54 Wgh/*i aiu Kmh lgs6l(500) - Thing 1/202Q
Kinh te phi chinh thuTc
nhung (Corruption Perception Index) cua td' chflc Minh bach qud'c te. Chi sd' n a y do Ifldng cam n h d n ve mflc do lam d u n g quyen Iflc cdng dfldc sxi d u n g de thfle hien cac Idi ich ca nhan. Chi so' ndy n a m d mflc 0 de'n 10 vdi dilm sd' cao cd nghia la minh bach va it t h a m nhung hdn.
(iii) Sfl sut giam cua k h u vuc kinh te' chinh thfle gdm:
- Ty le tha't nghiep: ty Id lao ddng khdng cd vide lam tren tong sd'lflc Ifldng lao dong xa hdi.
• Thu nhap binh quan dau ngfldi: logarithm cua sflc mua tfldng dfldng (purchasing power parity - PPP)
(iv) c a c dac t i n h vd t a p quan, van hda dfldc do Ifldng thdng q u a ty Id lao ddng tfl kinh doanh, tfl lam viec t r e n tong sd' Iflc Ifldng lao ddng.
4.1.2. Cac nhdm bien chf bao
Dfla t r e n eac nghien cflu cua Bajada va Schneider (2005) va Schneider (2010), cdc chi bao thfldng la:
- Chi bao tidn te.' cac giao dich trong khu vflc k i n h te' phi chinh thfle dfldc thfle hien chu yd'u b a n g tidn mat, n h d m muc dich t r a n h sfl theo ddi cua chinh phu. Do vay, tidn m a t dfldc fla thich trong k h u vflc kinh td' n g l m . Chi bao sfl d u n g d day la td'c do t a n g trfldng cua tien m a t . Khi quy md kinh te' phi chinh thfle gia t a n g thi n h u cau ve tien m a t se Idn.
Ty le t h a m gia Iflc Ifldng lao ddng:
Schneider va Enste (2000) da ehi ra md'i quan hd chat che gifla quy md kinh te' phi chinh thfle vdi Iflc Ifldng lao ddng. Khi ty Id t h a m gia Iflc Ifldng lao ddng thd'p trong td'ng sd' ngfldi trong do tud'i lao ddng, thi nd phan a n h mdt phan Idn ngfldi lao ddng dang lam viec trong k h u vflc kinh te' n g l m .
HINH 2: Mo h i n h do lUdng q u y m o k h u vflc k i n h te" phi c h i n h thfle
Xu
xa
X J
X4
X51
xu
X71
X81
G^nh nang thu^
HiSu qua cOa chinh phO TiSng noi va giai trinh Nh^ nudc phap quySn
Tham nhung TJiethatnghiSp TNbinhquanngtifli TJ16 lir kinh doanh
\ \
-' y / yry
Khuviicl<inht6phi chinh IhSc
*
T & d 6 tang tiSn mat
Tf 18 tham gia luc luong j laod6ng i ''^' h * Tang truong GDP
NguSn: Bi xu£it cua lie gia.
- Toe do t a n g tcnbng GDP: cac nghien cflu dong ciia liinh te phi chinh thfle len khu vijc thuc nghiSm da khSng dinh moi quan h$ giiia kinh te chinh thfle thi chfla ro r t o g . Mot so toe do phat trien ciia kinh Me phi chinh thfle nghien cflu cho tha'y moi quan he tich cflc, va t & do t a n g trfldng GDP. Tuy nhien, tac mot so khac lai the hien quan he tieu cflc.
NgftMn oil/ Kkitt lisS HSOO) - Thing l/ala) 5 5
Kinh te phi chinh thuc .
Sau khi xay dflng cac bien quan sat, mo hinh cS^u true se co dang nhfl sau:
4.2. DU lieu nghien eihi
So' heu theo thdi gian cua Viet Nam la chfla du yeu e l u toi thieu cua mdt m l u nghien cflu. Do vay, nghien eflu da sfl dung kd't hdp dfl heu cua Vidt Nam va mot sd nfldc Chau A cd t h u n h a p b i n h quan d i u ngfldi d mflc trung binh, tfl 1000 - 10.000 USD/ngfldi, vdi muc dich chon r a cac qud'c gia cd trinh do phat t r i i n kinh td' tfldng ddng vdi Viet Nam BANG 1: Tho'ng k e m o t a c a c b i e n
n h i m h a n chd^ toi da cac sai lech trong m l u . M i u nghien cflu gom ed 10 quoc gia: Viet Nam, Thai Lan, Indonexia, PhiLipin, Campudbia, Lao, An Do, Malaixia, Sri L a n k a va Trung Qudc, giai doan 1995 - 2015, tong cong cd 210 quan sat. DQ lidu sfl dung trong bai h l u het la dfl heu s i n cd, dfldc \^y tfl Ngan hang The gidi va Quy Tien te quoc te (IMF) d l dam bao do chinh xac va n h a t quan.
suf d u n g t r o n g m o h i n h n g h i e n cxtu.
Ganh itang thu£
Hifeu qua chinh phii ChSl lugng quy dinh Tifi^ng n6i va giai trinh Tham nhiing Ty le thSt nghiep Ty le tu kinh doanh GDP thuc (logarithm) T6C d6 tang tien mat Ty le tham gia luc luong lao d6ng
Tang trucmg GDP
Ddnvi
%
C h i s 6 Chisfi Chisfi Chi so
%
%
%
%
%
%
Tnmg btall 12.77 2,38 2,26 1,88 1,98 4,19 55,7 25,68 14,97 72,59 5,70
(ji&trit^i thilu
4,6 1,28 1,00 0,68 1,14 0,10 23,30 21,71 -14,87 56,30 -13,1
G i i tri tfTida 22,4 3,74 3,34 3,01 3,05 12,27 90,3 29,81 99,07 85,00 13,2
D«lech c h u ^
3,69 0,54 0,46 0,69 0,41 2,84 18.08 2,01 13,87 9,19 3,06
Kuztosis
0,04 0,33 0,23 -1,28 0,04 0,18 -0,68 -0,63 8,74 -1,53 10,30
Scewness
0,27 0,51 -0,18 -0,11 0,2 0,96 -0,27 -0,19 2,17
•0,16 -2,29 Nguon: Tinh toan cua tac gia.
5. Ket q u a n g h i e n ciJfu
5.1. Quy mo kinh tephi chinh thttc Sau k h i thfle hidn cac bfldc p h d n tich, thong ke md ta ban d i u , ke't qua flde Ifldng md hinh MIMIC dfldc trinh bay nhfl bang 2,
Tie'n h a n h cdc k i l m dinh cho thsty, md hinh phfl hdp va thda m a n cac dieu kien ve tinh ben vflng cua md hinh cd'u true. Cac he so flde Ifldng de"u cd y nghia thd'ng ke d mflc cao. Tuy nhien, mdt d i l m dang Iflu y Id ty le tha't nghidp va ty Id t h a m gia Iflc Ifldng lao
ddng cd quan hd nghich chieu vdi khu vflc kinh te* phi chinh thfle. Dieu nay cd nghia la khi ty Id thd't nghiep giam thi khu vflc kinh te phi chinh thfle gia tang. Ke't qua thu vi nay cd the giai thich rang 5 cdc nfldc dang phat trien, ngfldi lao ddng cd xu hfldng lam viec nhidu gid hdn de kiem them t h u nhdp.
Mac dfl ho da eo cdng viec 6 khu vflc kinh te chinh thfle, ngfldi lao ddng van ldm them cac cdng viec khac 5 khu vflc khong chinh thfle.
Chinh vi vdy, n^u co thd^t nghidp xay ra, ho
56 N^iin aiv Kmh tSs61(500) - Thing 1/2020
Kinh t^ phi chinh thurc
v I n dfldc xem la cd viec lam. Day dfldc goi la hidn tfldng "tha't nghidp t r a hinh" thfldng gap d nhflng thd'ng ke ve viee lam. Vi vay nd cung a n h hfldng dd'n ty le t h a m gia Iflc Ifldng lao ddng. Ty Id nay t a n g len, nhflng thfle td' lao dong lai t h a m gia lam viec d thi trfldng phi chinh thfle de kie'm t h e m t h u n h a p nen lam gia t a n g quy md k h u vuc kinh te n g l m .
Vdi ke't q u a hoi quy t r e n , md h i n h MIMIC flde Ifldng dfldc cd d a n g nhfl sau:
Vt 0,12*xit + 2,85*X2t 2,99*X3t - 4,04*X4t - l,18*X5t - 0,67*X6, - l,14*X7t + 0,04*X8t*< (4)
Tid'p theo, quy md n e n k i n h te' phi c h i n h
thfle se dfldc c h u a n h d a ve dang con so' thdng q u a viec c h u i n hda dfl lidu dfla vao mot n a m cd sd. N h a m d a m bao tinh khdch quan ve m a t ke't q u a flde t i n h cho Viet N a m cung nhfl cac nfldc trong mdu nghien cflu, n a m 2000 se dfldc chon lam n a m cd sd vdi con sd' flde t i n h la t r u n g binh cdng cua 2 kd't qua n g h i e n cflu: Schneider va cong sfl (2010) va Aim va Embaye (2013). Ddy la 2 nghien cflu sfl d u n g 2 phfldng p h a p khac n h a u , vdi quy md hdn 100 qud'c gia t r e n t h e gidi va kd't qua cung ed sfl khac biet. Do vdy, tac gia sfl d u n g eon sd' t r u n g binh cua 2 nghien eflu n a y de khach quan, t r a n h sfl thien Idch, h a y phu thuoc vao mdt nghien cflu b a t ky nao.
BANG 2: Q u y m o k h u vtfc k i n h t e n g a m c u a c a c nfldc n a m 2000 (% G D P ) Qutfcgia
Via Nam Campuchia Indfinfixia Lao Malaixia ThSi Lan Philipin AlD6 Sri Lanka Trung Qu6'c
Phutngphip MIMIC (Schneider vi c6ng sa, 2010)
15,6 50,1 19,4 30,6 31,1 52,6 43,3 23,1 44,6 13,1
Phuong phdp cftu tiSn (Aim va Embaye, 2013}
27,9
31,6
27,9 26,3 27,4 21,1 32,1 21,0
Gi£ tri tiung blnh 21,7 50,1 25,5 30,6 29.5 39,4 35,3 22,1 38,3 17,1
Gia sti, de flde t i n h quy mo k h u vtic kinh tg' phi c h i n h thfle cua Viet N a m n a m 2015, t a t h a y t h e cac gia tri x, (i = 1;T) b nam 2000 va n a m 2015 vao phflong t r i n h (4).
"72011(1 = 0.12*16,5 + 2,85*(-0,44) - 2,99*
(-1,25) - 4,04*(-0,34) - 1,18*2,5 - 0,67*2,3 - 1,13*7,65 -I- 0,04*80,3 = -4,43
Ngudn: Schneider va c6ng sit (2010), Aim vJ Embaye (2013).
?2015 0,12*18,2 -f 2,85*0,08 2,99*
(-1,33) - 4,04*(-0,27) - 1,18*3,3 - 0,67*2,2 - 1,13*8,70 -I- 0,04*63,5 = -6,48
Thay the 2 gia tri tren vao cong thfle h phflong trinh (3), vdi 7;J|,|,„ =21,7. Ta dflOc:
"?2015 I GDP)
' "^2000 : ' 21,7 = 26,90 (%
Nghan aiu Kmh tSsS t(500) • Thing 1/2020
57
Kinh te'phi chinh thirc
BANG 3: Ke't qua hoi quy ciia phijctng t r i n h MIMIC
Mohinh
MIMIC 6-1-3
MIMC&I-S
MIMC 7-1-3
MIMIC 7-1-3
MIHC 8-1-3 n|ng lhu€
X l 0,06 (0,76)
0,14"
(2,06) 0,18"
(1.96) 0.12' (1.92}
Hieu
cua chinh pliQ
X , 253"
C,Z9)
2,81"
(1,61)
2,85"
(2,83) Teng n6ivd
trinh
X l -5,09"
(-523) 3,37"
(-5,03) -2,93"
(-4,61) -3,16' (4,83) -2,99"
(-4,63) Hid mdc p M p quyen
x«
-3,38"
(-2,74) -2,64"
(-3,04) -4,12"
(-3,80) -3,12""
(-329) -4,04"
(-3,75) Tham nhOng
Xa -1,42' (-2,09)
•0,89"
(-1,80) -1,470"
(-2,73)
•0,63 (•1,19) -1,18"
(-2,19) TJIe
nghiep
Xa
-0.72"
(-5,00) -0,73"
" (-5,05)
•0,72"
(-5,02)
•0,67"
(-».77) Thu nhap binh quSn (Elu ngilH
Xn
-2,04"
(-3,08)
•0,44' . (-0,93) -1,46"
(-255) -0.56 (-1,19)
•0,14"
(-224) T^ieiir
taih doanh
Xa
0,03 (1,31)
037 (1,59) 0,04"
(1,66)
• ^ 1 than value hiOig lao dfing
A I
1,43"
(5.33)
i,4r
(5,67) 1,60"
(5,35) 1.39"
(6,06) 1,59"
(5,30)
•rang GDP
Xi -1,43"
(-5.32) 0,19"
(4,05) -0,18"
(-3,72) -0,15"
(-3,74)
•0,19"
(-3,96) RMSA
(P- v^ue)'
0,102 (0,01) 0,123 (0,00) 0,097 (0,01) 0,130 (0,01) 0086 (0.02)
Chi«quae
329 (0,00) 4.16 (0,00) 2,9S (0,00) 434 (0,00) 2M (0,00)
H
12
12
14
14
16
Ngudn: Tinh todn cua tac gia Oiichii:
(*), (**) va (***) lircmg liiig v6i miic ^ nghia 10%, 5% vi 1%
' RMSA: chi ti6u dung ii xdc dinh miic d6 phu hap cua md hinh so vdi t6ng th^ (RMSA < 0,09 duoc xem Ii m6 hinh tfft)
^ Chi-square (—): chi ti6u diing d^ bi^u Ehi miic d6 phu hap t6ng qu5t cua t o ^ m6 hinh (1< (—^ < 3 dirac xem 14 m6 hinh tot v6i c9 mSu N<200) (D6'i viS tnrdng hop c5 mSu ItSn N > 200, 1< (T*)<5 diroc xem Iim6hinht6t) Tien h a n h tifdng tU vdi t a t ca cac n a m txi gia tri quy mo kinh te phi chinh thCtc (% GDP 1995 - 2015 va l i n liidt cho moi nif6c, ta diTdc chinh thiic) nhU h i n h 3.
HINH 3: Quy mo kinh te phi chinh thiic (% GDP) cua Viet Nam, 1995 - 2015 30
2S 20 15 10 5
iO,3
19,8
1995 96 20,7
97 20,4
98 21,9
99 21,8
00 19,9
01 18,0
02 17,2
03 16,8
04 16,6
05 IV
06 16,1
07 17,7
08 19,2
09
"KJ
10 18^
11 22,1
12 24,-
13 26,3
14 26,9
2015 Ngudn: Tinh loan cua tdc gia.
58 Nghiin aiu Kmh :gs61(500) • ThAng 1/2020
Kinhte'phi chinh thAc ,
25.0 20 0 15 0 10.0 5.0 0 , 0
HINH 4: Q u y m o k i n h t e p h i c h i n h t h i i e (% G D P ) c u a c a c ntfdc
^ ^ ^ , . , _ - * - - ~ * - - - - ~ ^ - - % _ _ ^
^^^l^f^-^~*^'^-t'^!^t -j-t:- T'^^*'* *' f ^
. j _ J i = d t * ••'—*~ !iJ-**'°°^~~*- T—i" tt '1^ "t ' T 1
-•-=F^tC=t=*^-^»'^
19 95 96 97 9S 99 00 01 02 03 04 03 06 07 OS 09 10 11 13 13 1 4 2 0 1 5
— « — V i i t Nam —•—Indanfixla — * — A n D ^ Th^iLan —IK—Philippin
—*—Malaixia — i — L S Q -Campuciiia Sri Lanka — * — T n i n g Qu6c
Ngudn: Tinh toan cua tic gia.
K§'t qua cho thay, mac du quy mo cua kinh te phi chinh thvlc b Vi§t N a m so vdi cac nii6c trong m l u nghien ciiu la tUdng d6'i t h a p (tii 15% - 27% GDP), n h u n g lai co xu hiidng gia t a n g trong nhiing n a m gan day, dac biet la tii n a m 2007 trd di. Hdn niia, trong 10 niidc nghien ciiu, thi Viet N a m la mot trong 3 quoc gia co toe t a n g trudng ve quy mo kinh te phi chinh thiic d miic cao, binh quan mdi nam tang 1,4%, chi xep s a u Indonexia (3,3%) va Trung Quoc (2,3%). Trong k h i do, cac quoc gia con lai cho tha'y xu hiidng giam ve quy mo cua k h u vUc nay. Diiu nay d a t r a nhieu thach thiic Idn doi vdi Viet N a m trong cong tac quan ly va k i l m soat sii biing no cua k h u viic phi chinh thiic nay.
• Ganh nang thue'
HINH 5: T o n g t h u t h u e / G D P ( k h o n g k e
Gia thuyet H i diidc u n g ho khi ganh nang thuS' CO moi quan h$ t h u a n chilu vdi kinh t§' phi chinh thiic. Neu ganh nang thue tang them 1% thi quy mo kinh ti phi chinh thiic t r u n g binh t a n g them 0,12% GDP (tinh theo GDP chinh thiic). NhU vay, vdi ganh nang thue ciing vdi cac khoan dong gop xa hoi cao se khig'n cac ca n h a n co xu hudng t r a n h hoac tron thue. Trong 10 niidc nghiSn ciiu thi Viet Nam la niidc co thug^ sua't trung binh cao nha't va CO xu hUdng t a n g tii nam 2000 cho den nay, vdi miic thuS' suS^t trung binh trong ca giai doan nay la 20,25%. Thue sua't trung binh tang, di kem vdi chi phi tuSn thu thue cao va cung vdi h§ thd'ng phap luat vi thue dang trong qua trinh cai each, ro rang la nguyen n h a n khi§'n kinh te phi chinh thfle cua Vi§t N a m gia tang.
d o n g g o p a n s i n h x a h o i ) c u a c a c ntfdtc
1 Q 9 5 9 6 5 7 9 B 99 0 0 0 1 0 2
— 0 — V i 6 t Nam —•~~lnd6naxia
— » ~ Malaixia — \ — U o
04 0 5 0 6 0 ' - . f t — A n 06
Campuchia
OS OP 1 0 , - Thii Lan
^ — S r i Lanlta
1 2 1 3 1 4 2 0 1 5 .^—Philippin
A'^t/(i/7.IMF(2016).
NghiSn aiu Kinh t4s<S 1(500) - Thing 1/2020 5 9
Kinh te phi chinh thdc ,
He thd'ng phap luSt, the che'va chinh phu
HINH 6: C h a t liitfng t h e c h e ciia V i e t N a m so v d i c a c nxfdc Tham nhQng
On dinh chinh tri Trach n h i ^ giai trinh Nha nu6c phfq) quyai Ch^t Iwona cac qui dinh Hieu qua chinh phii
• Trung binh cac niick:
Ngudn: Tdng hgp cua lac gia.
Gia thuyet H2 ciing dUdc u n g ho khi cac bien dai dien cho h$ thong p h a p luat, the che CO mm quan he nghich chieu vdi nen kinh te phi chinh thfle^. Ket qua nay cho tha'y, sii kem chat lUdng cua he thong luat phap, tiS'ng noi va trach nhiem giai trinh khong cao va nan tham nhimg ciing la nguyen n h a n chinh thiic day p h ^ Idn liic liidng di vao hoat dong 5 khu vUc phi chinh thiic. So sanh cha't lUdng the che cua Viet Nam vdi cac nUdc qua bo chi so WGI cho thay, mac dii da co nhieu no liic cai each, tuy nhien chat lU(3ng the che cua Viet Nam hien nay van d miic trung binh so vdi cac nUdc. Viet Nam chi ndi bat nhat ve chi so on dinh chinh tri, trong khi do cac chi so'con lai v I n thap hdn so vdi mat bang chung cua cac niidc. Dac biet, chi so' tieng noi, trach nhiem giai tiinh.
• Su sut giam cua nen kinh te'cbinh thdc HINH 7: Moi q u a n h e giu!a q u y m o k i n h t e
Xu hudng p h a t trien cua khu viic kinh t8' phi chinh thiic d Viet N a m cho thay r^ng, sii bien dong quy mo ciia k h u viic kinh te phi chinh thiic dudng n h u co tinh quy luat va chiu sU anh hudng tii khu viic kinh te chinh thiic.
Co hai diem moc dang chii y la giai doan 1997 - 1998 va giai doan 2008 - 2009, d hai thdi diem nay khu vuc kinh te chinh thUc deu chiu nhiing cii soc ra't Idn tut khung hoang kinh te^, khien da tang trUdng giam dan den sii gia tang cua khu viic kinh te phi chinh thiic. Gia thuye't H3 ciing dUdc u n g ho khi bien dai dien cho sUc khoe cua kinh t^ chinh thUe la thu nhap binh quan d i u ngUdi c6 quan he nghich chieu vdi kinh te phi chinh thiic, tflc la khu vuc kinh te cliinh thUc sut giam se co tac dong gia tang din quy mo cua khu viic phi chinh thUc (hinh 7).
p h i c h i n h thiic v a sii t a n g tn*cfng k i n h t ^ 30.0
25 0 20 0 15.0 10.0 5-0
1995 96 97 98 Quy
^^-"
-~^ ^-
99 00 01 02 03 OJ 05 06 07 OS 09 10 11 12 13 » 2015 no kmh le phi chinfe tiuic C?o GDP) ' "• TSug tnrdug tinh te (°/o GDP)
NguSn:Tinh toSn cua tic gia.
2. O n luu ^ ring cac biS^n chi bao dai difin cho nhora nguyfin nhan niy c6 giS tri cSlng cao thi c^ng ttft, do vay mflt su tang Ifin vi d i ^ s 5 se cho thSy m6t su cai thifin v l \A thfing phip luat va nang luc ciia d i m h phu.
3- 1997-1998: kfaung hoang tai chmh Chau A; 2008 -2009: khung hoang tM chinh t o ^ cSu.
60 n cdu Kinh ii's61 (500) - Thing 1/2020
Kinh t^ phi chinh thiifc ...
• Nguyen nhan khac
Ket qua tii mo hinh thiic nghifim cho tha'y ty le t u kinh doanh t r e n liic lUdng lao dong eo quan h§ t h u a n chi§"u vdi nen kinh ti phi chinh thUc. Dieu n a y hoan toan phii hdp vdi dac thii cua mdt so' quo'c gia Chau A khi thdi quen tieu d u n g bang tien m a t va kinh doanh kieu hg gia dinh vdi qui mo nhd chie'm p h a n Idn trong n I n k i n h te*. Day lai la nhiing ea the CO k h a nang t h a m gia vao xiin kinh ti phi chinh thUe ra't eao. O Viet Nam, theo tho'ng ke nam 2015 cd den hdn 4,7 triSu hd kinh BANG 4: HHc t i n h s o t h u t h u e t h a t
san xua't kinh doanh ca t h i va con s6' nay t a n g lien tuc qua cac nam.
52.Hdmyvetiemnangthuecua VietNam M6t trong nhiing tac dong d i u tien va ro nha't t u k h u viic kinh te phi chinh thiic gay r a la tinh t r a n g tha't thoat so' thu thue.
Nguon t h u t h u e tUm nang hay dien cd sd chiu thue bi t h u hep lai khi quy md kinh te phi chinh thiic gia tang. Vdi mUc do tha't thoat Idn, nd se la mot ganh nang doi vdi ngan sach quo'c gia, dac biet trong boi canh nhu c i u chi tieu ngay cang tang eao.
t h o a t (% G D P ) , g i a i d o a n 1 9 9 5 - 2 0 1 5 Nam
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Khu vuc kinh tf phi chinh thiic (% GDP)
20,3 19.8 20,7 20,4 21,9 21,8 19,9 18,0 17,2 16,8 16,6 15,2 16,1 17,7 19,2 18,3 18,5 22,1 24,7 26,3 26,9
SS thu tCt thue (% GDP)
18,70 19,30 16,90 16,20 16,20 16,50 18,70 19,80 20,70 21,70 20,90 22,20 21,50 22,40 20,60 22,30 22,20 19,00 19,10 18,22 18,20
SS Ihu Ihui that thoit(%
GDP) 3,79 3,81 3,50 3,30 3,55 3,59 3,72 3,57 3,56 3,65 3,46 3,38 3,47 3,97 3,94 4,08 4,11 4,20 4,72 4,79 4,90 Ngudn: Tinh toin cua tiic gia.
4. Cdc nui5c trong mlu nghiftn cihi c6 tj Ifi tu kinh doanh b miic cao, tit 65% - 75% (ngoai tnr Malaixia 30%).
chi kho^g
Nghiin aiu Kinh tgs61(500) - Thing 1/2020 61
Kinhte phi chinh thiic ...
Vdi quy mo va sU phat trien cua khu viic kinh te phi chinh thfle trong thdi gian viia qua, moi nam Viet Nam thSt thoat so' thu thue khoang 3,3% GDP - mUe tha'p nha't cho den mUe cao nha't la g i n 5% GDP, tUdng dUdng vdi 1/5 tong s6' t h u tii thue hien tai cua Viet Nam. Vdi con so' tha't thoat ti§"n thu tii thue, chUa ke cac nguon tha't thoat khac, thi CO the hi^u tai sao ganh nang thue moi nam cua Viet Nam lai tang len ma khdng c6 xu hudng giam so vdi nhieu nUdc trong khu vUc.
Su gia tang ganh nang thug' n h a m muc dich huy dong ngudn thu tU thue nhi^u hdn nUa dfi bu dap sU thieu h u t va tha't thoat cung n h u de duy tri so' thu thue d mot ty 1§ nha't dinh so vdi GDP. Nhu mot vdng luan quan, sU gia tang ganh nang thui lai thuc day khu vUc kinh t§' phi chinh thfle phat trien va dan de'n tinh trang tha't thu thue nhieu hdn. Do dd, so vdi bien phap triic tie'p gia tang mflc dong vien tii thue de dam bao dUdc nguon thu, thi cac giai phap gian tiep - nham lam tang dien chiu thue nhU thu hep pham vi cua khu vUc phi chinh thfle lai mang tinh "dai hdi" va hi$u qua hdn.
6. Ket l u a n va h a m y c h i n h s a c h 6.1. Ket luan
Bang phUdng phap MIMIC ke't hdp vdi nhflng dfl lieu thUc te ve hien trang nen kinh ti Viet Nam, nghien cflu da Udc Ifldng dfldc quy mo cua khu vflc kinh te phi chinh thfle hien nay va xu hfldng thay ddi eua no trong giai doan 19995 - 2005. Theo do, quy mo kinh ti phi chinh thfle cua Viet Nam mac du CO nhflng da'u hieu giam di trUdc nhflng nam 2007, nhUng tfl sau cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan c i u 2007 - 2008, kinh te phi chinh thfle cua Viet Nam lai co xu hudng gia tang n h a n h chdng, vdi quy mo len de'n 27%
GDP, ba't cha'p nhflng nd lUc cai each tU trong nUdc nham kich thich khu viic chinh thfle phat trign.
Ket qua p h a n tich thUe nghiem cho thlly, CO 4 nguyen nhan chinh dan den sU gia tang
n h a n h chdng cua k h u viic kinh ti phi chinh thfle cua Viet Nam trong giai doan vfla qua, dd la: (i) h.& thong phap luat, the che va chinh phu; (ii) ganh nang t h u e khda; (iii) sfl suy giam cua kinh te chinh thfle va (iv) kinh doanh ho gia (finh chie'm p h i n Idn.
6.2. Hdm y chinh sach (i) Cii thien hd thd'ng ludt phap Thd nhd't, cac chinh sach va quy dinh phap luat phai dfldc thiet ke ddn gian ve mat so' lUdng nhUng n a n g cao vi mat cha't lUdng.
De CO dUdc dieu nay nha't thid't phai nang cao tinh dan chu, khuyen khich sU t h a m gia cua ngudi dan va cong ddng doanh nghiep vao qua trinh lam luat n h a m dUa cac quy dinh, chinh sach ban h a n h t h a t sfl di vao thiic ti^n va mang lai hiSu qua.
Thd hai, dat trong t a m vao cai each thu tuc hanh chinh, cai each h | thd'ng thue, eac quy dinh lien quan de'n doanh nghiep, dac biet la nhdm ho kinh doanh ca the de khuyen khich ho m a n h dan trd t h a n h doanh nghigp.
(ii) Giim ganh nang thue'
Can cai each t h u tuc h a n h chinh ve thu^
theo hudng ddn gian hoa nhUng van nang cao hieu luc va hieu qua cua cdng tac quan ly, nham giam ehi phi quan ly t h u thue va giam chi phi t u a n t h u eho ngUdi nop thue. Ngoai ra, he thd'ng t h u e c i n phai bao dam thiic hign chinh sach huy dong hdp ly vg' thug (giam mUc dong vien t r e n moi ddn vi thu nhap va h a n g hda di ddi vdi vigc md rong cd sd t h u ^ n h i m kich thich eac ea the tham gia ngay cang nhieu hdn vao cac hoat dong san xua't, kinh doanh d k h u vuc kinh te' chinh thfle.
(iii) Han che' tinh trang tham nhdng va loai bo cac khoan chi phi khdng chinh thdc Cac khoan chi phi khong chinh thfle, chi phi "boi trdn" dang trd t h a n h nhflng ganh nang dd'i vdi doanh nghigp, dac bi§t la eac doanh nghigp nhd. NhUng de giai quye't va'n n a n nay ludn la bai toan khd, bdi nd ddi hdi phai ed sU cong hudng tU nhieu phia, ca ben
62 A/g/Ti*i aiu Kinh lgs61(500) - Thing 1/2020
Kinh t6'phi chfnh thiic ...
trong l i n ben ngoai. d bgn trong dd la sii kg't hdp cua he tho'ng p h a p l u a t va vai trd cua ngfldi dflng d a u td chflc cdng. 6 ben ngoai dd la sfl hdp tac cua ngfldi dan va doanh nghiep trong vigc p h a t hien nhflng h a n h vi t h a m nhung./.
TAI LifiU THAM KHAO
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Hu6ng tdi m6t he thdng \hu€ hieu qua va c6ng bang hon, Ngin hkig The' gidi, tit <http://documents.
worldbank.org/curated/en/775221468329366573/pdf/663 170WP OTaxPoOOBox365757BOOPUBLICO.pdf>.
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(2010), New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World, International Economic Journal, 24(4), 443-461.
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Ngiy nh^n b^i:
NgJiy duySt dang:
14-11-2019 18-12-2019
Nghiin aiu Kinh tisa 1(b0U) - Thing 1/2020 63
