TAC DONG CUA CHI TIEU CONG DEN THI TRUOOVG BAT DONG SAN
Ph^m Hihi Hdng Thdi Trudng Dgi hoc Tdi chinh — Marketing
Email: [email protected] nh Thi Lam
Truang Dgi hoc Tdi chinh -Marketing Email: [email protected] Ngay nhan: 30/11/2016
Ngay nhSn ban siia: 14/02/2017 Ngay duy^t dang: 25/2/2017
Tom tat:
Nghien ciru ndy ldn ddu tien dieu tra lieu chi tieu cdng cd phdi la mot ddng luc quan trong cua su gia tdng gdn ddy trong gid nhd a tren thi truang bdt ddng sdn tgi Viet Nam. Su dung phucmg phdp tiep can vector tu hdi quy dgng bdng (panel VAR) voi mgt tap dir lieu quy trong giai dogn 2009-2016 tir hai thdnh phd Idri nhdt vd quan trong nhdt cua Viet Nam - Hd Noi vd thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh, ket qud cho thdy su gia tang trong chi tieu cho ddu tu phdt trien cua dia phuong keo theo gid nhd a tdng len. Mot mgt, nhung phdt hien cd the phdn dnh cdc ho gia dinh trong khu vuc co dtr dn ddu tu duac xdy dtrng cd the sdn sdng trd cho sugia tdng trong chi tieu cdng thdng qua cdc logi thue vd phi. Mat khdc, ket qud cd the thdy rdng mot trong nhirng gidi phdp kiem che lam phdt gid nhd a Id hgn che chi tieu cdng vdo nhung con dudng mai, ca sa hg tdng men, cai tao cdc cdng trinh.
Tu khda: Chi tieu cdng, gia nha dat, thi truang bat ddng san, panel VAR The effects of local public spending on real estate market Abstract:
This study investigates for the first time whether local public expenditure is an important driving force of a recent increase in housing price in Vietnam. Using a Panel Vector Autor Regressive approach with a unique quarterly dataset of the period 2009-2016 from two the biggest cities of Vietnam(Hanoi and Hochiminh city), the results show that an increase in expenditure for investment pulls up housing price. On the one hand, the findings reflect that households in the areas where investment projects are located can be willing to pay for an increase in public spending through taxes and fees. On the other hand, the results suggest that limitation of government spending in new infrastructure is one of the .solutions curbing housing price inflation.
Keywords. Public expenditures; house price; real estate market.
1. Gioi thieu gia trong nam 2013. Vdn dl nay dat ra mdt cau hoi Thj tnrdng bdt ddng san Viet Nam da sdi dpng trd ^'^ nguyen nhan sau xa cua su gia tang gia nha va hdi lai trong nhirng nam gdn day, gia nha ddt gia tang P'^^^^ ^hi trudng bdt ddng san la gi?
lien tuc. dac biet la tai cac thanh phd Idn nhu Fla Ndi Ly thuyet du doan rdng gia nha d cd thi duoc xac va thanh phd Ho Chi Minh. Vi du, gia nha dat d Ha dinh bdi nhieu yeu td ca vl phia cuna va phia cdu Ndi vao cudi nam 2015 da tang len gap doi so vdi nhu thu nhap, dac dilm xa hoi-nhan khdu hoc. lam
Sd 237 thdng 3/2017 Tl SiiSilirni
phat va su sin cd cua tin dung (Oikarinen, 2009).
Trong sd nhilu ylu td khac nhau nay, nghien ciiu tip trung vao vai trd cua chi ti8u cdng ma thu hdt sir chu y ciia cac nha nghien cuu va cac nha ho^ch dinh chinh sach trong thdi gian gdn day (Garcia & cpng su 2010; Khan & Reza, 2016).
Cac kiem dinh va tranh luan vl gia thuyit lieu gia nha ddt cd bi anh hudng bdi nhirng thay ddi trong chi tieu cdng ngay cang tang len. Nhin chung, nhiing nghien ciiu tim thdy rdng mdt su gia tang trong chi tieu cdng ciia chinh quyln cd kha nang tang gia tri tai san va dilu nay keo theo gia nha d tang len (Gates, 1969; Afonso & Sousa, 2011; Church, 1981). Tuy nhien, nghien ciiu nay khac biet dang kl vdi cac nghien ciiu trudc dky tren ba dac diem.
Ddu tien, trong khi cd rat nhieu nghien ciiu kiem tra gia thuyit nay d cac nude phat trien (Garcia & cdng su, 2010; Gates, 1969), bdng chiing tii boi canh cac nude dang phat trien van con han che. Bdi vi cac nha hoach djnh chinh sach da bat dau quan tam den viec hoach dinh dua vao bdng chiing thuc nghiem, nhu cau ddi vdi cac nghien ciiu dinh lugng de giai quyit cac van de chinh sach ed lien quan ngay cang tang len. Do do, nghien cuu nay gdp phan vao nhirng tai lieu trudc day bang each cung cap cac bang chiing thuc nghiem dau tien ve vai tro ciia chi tieu cdng dja phucmg den gia nha d tai Viet Nam. Cau tra ldi cho cau hdi nay la quan trpng bdi vi nd cd tac dpng chinh sach huu ich ngay lap tiic. Lam phat gia nha dat la mot trong nhiing thach thiic cap bach phai ddi mat vdi cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach d Viet Nam.
Neu chi tieu cdng dia phuang thuc su cd anh hudng den toe dp tang gia nha d, kiem che lam phat gia nha d bang each dieu chmh gia cd the it phii hgp va ben bi hoTi bat ngudn tir cac chuang trinh cai each tai chinh cong.
Thir hai, cac nghien ci'm trudc day thudng sii dung tong chi tieu trong viec xem xet cac mli lien ket vdi gia nha dat. Tuy nhien, cac thanh phdn khac nhau ciia chi tieu cong cd thi anh hudng khac nhau den gia nha d. Do do. khac biet vdi nhirng tai lieu trudc, nghien ciiu nay xem xet vai trd ciia mdi thanh phdn trong tdng chi tieu cua chinh quyln dia phuong den gia nha dat. Dieu nay cd thi cung cap mdt biic tranh chi tiet ve vai trd cua chi tieu cdng din gia nha ddt. Dieu thii vi la, trai vdi mot so nghien ciiu, nghien cim cua chung toi cho thdy su gia tang trong chi tieu cho ddu tu va phat triin ciia chinh quyln dja
phucmg dan din gia nha cao hon, nhung tang trong chi thudng xuydn tac d^ng tieu cure din tdc dp tang gia nha d.
Thir ba, ckch tilp can Ihuc nghiSm ciia chiing tdi dua tren md hmh vector t^r hdi quy dang bang (Panel VAR), trong dd nhiing lgi tihl cua mo hmh nay la ddi xii vdi tdt ca cac biln nhu la ngi sinh va kiem scat dugc tinh khdng ddng nhdt ca nhan khdng quan sat dugc (Agnello & Sousa, 2013).
Phdn cdn lai cua nghien ciiu dugc cau tnic nhu sau. Phdn 2 trinh bay ca sd ly thuyit va cac nghien ciiu cd Hen quan. Bdi canh cua nghien cuu nay dugc md ta torn tdt d phdn 3. Phdn 4 trinh bay phuang phap va cac ngudn dii lieu. Phan 5 bao cao ket qua thuc nghiem va thao luan; ket luan va khuyen nghi chinh sach dugc dua ra trong phan cudi ciing.
2. Cff sd ly thuySt va cac nghiSn ciru cd lien quan
2.1. Cas&lythuyk
Tiebout (1956) da phat trien mdt md hinh chinh thiic lien quan den xac dinh vi tri de d ciia ngudi tieu diing trong su phu hgp vdi sd thich ddi vdi hang hda va dich vy cdng dia phuang. Ong de nghi rang it nhat d miic dp ly thuyet chiing ta cd the hinh dung mpt he thdng ma trong dd chung ta cd dugc mot cai gi do tuong ty nhu mpt giai phap thi trudng de san xuat va tieu thu hang hoa cdng dja phuang. Rat don gian, the gidi ciia Tiebout la mpt the gidi trong dd ngudi tieu dung "mua sam" trong cac cdng ddng khac nhau ma cung cap cac gdi dich vu cdng dja phuong khac nhau va hg lira chpn mdt noi cu trii trong cdng dong ma cung cap cac chuang trinh thue - chi tieu phu hop nhat vdi thi hieu ciia minh. Neu dieu nay la diing, cac kit qua dau ra ciia cac djch vu cdng tir chi tieu cdng cua dia phuang (ciing nhu thue) nen anii hudng den sir hdp dan tiem nang ciia mpt cpng ddng dan cu va do dd anh hudng den gia tri bat ddng san tai dia phuang.
Cach tiep can can bang tdng quat nay ngu y rang, neu mpt cdng ddng tang thue suat thue tai san ciia minh de md rdng chi tieu cdng thong qua cung cap cac hang hda va dich vu cdng, thu nhap cho thue rdng (thyc te hoac quy doi) cho chu sd hiru tai san khdng giam va c6 the tang len. Hon nira, dieu nay cho thay mpt each dl xac dinh xem lieu gia thuyet Tiebout ve xac dinh vi tri dl d cua ngudi tieu diing theo sd thich vdi chuang trinh ngan sach dia phuang cd lien quan
So 237 thdng 3/2017 MnlilfvJ'liiidrii'ii
gi tdi h^inh vi th\rc tl. NIU ngudi ti6u dung, trong su l\ra chpn ciia hg v6 dia phucmg nai cu tni, thuc hien xem xet cac chuang trinh djch vu cdng cd san, vdi mpi thir khac la nhu nhau (bao gdm ca thul suat), t i ^ thue rdng (thuc tl hoac quy doi), gia trj tM s ^ se la cao hon trong mpt cpng ddng vdi cac goi hang hda, dich vy cdng hap din han. Cac gia dUih rifing 16, mong muon tiSu thu hang hda, dich vu cdng d miic dd cao han, se du doan cd xu hudng tang gia tri tai san trong cpng ddng ma cd cac chucmg trinh djch vy cdng chat lugng cao. Nhu Bickerdike ^ nh^n: "Mdt sd thii, chang h?m nhu dich vy thap sing v^ ve sinh duong phd, la nhttng lgi the cd thi nhm thSy bang mat; chiing cd thS duac dua vko tinh toan khi mpt ngudi lya chgn mOt ngdi nha, m^ic dii chiing c6 khuynh hudng bi lang quen bdi cac nhSn viSn thu thul" (Bickerdike, 1902, 476). Ngugc lai, nlu cac chuong trinh chi tidu ciia dia phuoi^ khdng cd tac dpng d tdt ck ckc quyit djnh ve dia dilm, khdng cd ky vpng v6 gia bat dpng san dia phuong phu thudc vao bidn chi tieu, vi trong trudng hgp nay, cung va cau ve bat dOng san dia phuang cd thi se ddc l|p vdi cac chuang trinh nay.
Ngoai ra, JappeUi & Pistaferri (2007) ciing luu y rang nhihig phat trien trong thi tnrdng nha d cd thi bi anh hudng bdi mpt loat ckc bi8n phap tai khda dac bipt la thdng qua cac khoan trg cap va cac bien phdp thul. Vi du, cac khoan trp cdp tai chinh (diudc chuang trinh chi tidu cdng) cho viec mua nhi mdi cd the thiic ddy nhu cdu va gia nhji d, dac biet la trong bdi canh ngudn cung nha d khdng co gian.
2.2. Cdc nghiin c^ thf/rc nghiem lien quan K I tii khi sy xudt hien cua nghidn ciiu noi tiing ciia Gates (1969), mpt sd nghien ciiu liSn quan din gia thuyet Tiebout va tac dpng ciia chi tieu cdng dia phuang va thue suat thue tai san den gia tri tai san da dugc cdng bd (Pollakowski, 1973; Gates, 1973;
Edel & Sclar, 1974; Hamilton, 1976; King, 1977; va Rosen & Fullerton, 1977).
Gates (1969) thuc hien kiem dinh thuc nghiem tren gia thuyet Tiebout. Ong do ludng tam quan trpng ciia cac bien tai khda nhu thue suSt tai san va chi tieu cdng dia phuang trong vide xac dinh lua chpn bdt ddng san nha d, bang vi6c quan sat tac ddng ciia nhiing biln nay den gia tri bdt ddng san nha d trong 53 cpng ddng dan cu d Ddng Bdc New Jersey. Tdt nhien, dng cd hieu chinh cac ylu td khac tac ddng den gia tri bdt dpng san nhu khoang each
tu thanh phd New York v^ thu nh|p truhg hlnh cua ngudi dan. Gates tim Ihay i ^ g gi^ tn bdt dpng san tuong quan duang vdi chi tieu cdng dia phuang va tucmg quan am vdi thud sudt thul tdi sin dja phuong.
Nhiing kit qua nay h§ trg manh mi cho gia thuyet Tiebout: ngudi tiSu dtxng nhan ra su khac biSt ve tii chinh cdng giua cic cgng ddng vdi cac dac tinh hdp din khic Ihudng. Tuy nhidn, han che ciia Gates la nghidn ciiu ciia dng dugc thuc hien tai mot thdi d i ^ vdi hdi quy chdo, dieu nay cd the din ddn ket qui sai lech d mpt mure dO nao dd so voi khi xem xdt trong mpt thdi gian dii trong dd cic nin kinh te trii qua cac chu ky kinh te khic nhau. (3 mdt cich tilp can khac vdi Gates (1969), Brueckner (1979) tap trung vio cau hdi hieu qua nen kinh tl trong mdt thS gidi khdng thda man dieu kien cin bing Tiebout.
Vdi viSc sii dung mlu nghien ciiu tirong tu Gates (1969) dudi mpt mo hinh ly thuyit mdi - md hinh bid-rent, kit qui cho thdy cic cdng ddng trong mlu dang cung cdp hang hda cdng tai miic cao hon miic hifiu qui, va giim sin lugng hang hda cdng (hay giam cic chuang trinh chi tieu cdng) se lam gia tang gii tri tai sin trong nhiing cgng ddng nay.
Nhin chung, mdi quan he v i tic ddng cua chi tieu cdng din thj tnrdng bdt ddng sin da dugc quan tam nghien ciiu trong cic nghien ciiu trudc diy, song hoac cac nghien ciiu ho$c chi tap trung vao cac nude phit triin (vi du Gates, 1969; Brueckner, 1979; Afonso & Sousa, 2011...), hoac chi dinh gia tac dpng tdng thi cua chinh sach tai khda thdng qua biln tham hut ngin sich (vi du Agnello & Sousa, 2013) hay chi quan tam din tic ddng tdng thd cua chi tieu cdng ma khdng xem xet tie ddng rieng phdn cua cac thanh phdn chi tieu (vi du Garcisa & cpng su, 2010; Afonso & Sousa, 2011...). Nghien ciiu nay cua chiing tdi nhdm myc dich idp diy cic khoing ti-dng neu tren bing viec xem xet tac ddng ciia chi tieu cdng dia phuang din thi trudng hit ddng sin d mdt nude dang phit triin - Viet Nam, trong dd xem xet tie ddng ciia tiing thanh phin chi tieu ciing nhu tac ddng tdng hpp cua chiing trong mpt khung phan tich panel VAR, khic vdi cac nghien cuu trudc.
3. Phu-ong phap nghien cuu va dir lifu Chiing tdi lugng hoi cic mdi quan he giua chi tieu cdng, gia nha d va ho^t dpng kinh tl bing each udc lupng md hmh Panel VAR nhu sau:
^it = ro + r(L)Xtt+fi + £,t (*) Trong dd X„ la vector cic biln ndi sinh bao gdm:
Sd 237 thdng 3/2017
kinll teJ*tial trien
(i) chi sd gii nha d {hp.), tdng sin phdm tren dia ban - GRDP (y.,), chi sd gii tieu dung ti^n dia bin {cpi.), chi tieu cho diu tu phat triin dia phuang (inv), chi thudng xuyen dia phuang (otherJ, tdng chi tieu cong dia phuang {IpsJ. r^ hilu thj vector hing sd, r(L) la mpt ma tran da thiic toan tii lui, f la hipu ling cd dinh dia phuong v i e ^ la vector sai sd.
Dd nhan biit tic ddng rieng phan ciia tiing thanh phdn chi tieu cdng v i tic dgng tdng hgp ciia chiing, chung tdi ldn lupt xem xet trong 4 md hinh vdi vector cac bien npi sinh la;
Md hinh (1): X^ = [hp^,, y_,, cpi^^, inv J ; Mo hlnh (2): [hp^^, y^,, cpi,^, other J';
Md hinh (3): [hp^^, y^^, cpi.,, inv.,, other J'; va Md hinh (4): [hp^,, y^^, cpi,,, Ips,,]';
v l trat ty ciia cac biln trong he thdng, chiing tdi gia dinh ring GDP va miic gia phin ling vdi nhiing cu sdc chinh sich tai khda, cu the li sdc chi tieu cdng vdi do tre nhat dinh. Dilu niy phu hgp vdi cic nghien ciiu trudc day trong cac tai lieu ve chinh sich tai khda (Fatas & Mihov, 2001; Blanchard & Perotti, 2002; Mountford & Uhlig, 2009). Vl gii nha d, sy lua chgn ciia chiing toi dugc hd trp bdi thyc t8 la thi trudng thudng ciing nhic vdi chi phi giao dich Idn, va can cd thdi gian de xay dyng nhi d mdi hay thanh ly hang tdn kho cijng nhu dat dugc su phu hop giiia ngudi mua va ngudi ban, do dd, phan ling cila gia nha thudng cham tre han so vdi cac bien khic (Agnello & Sousa, 2013)'.
Cd nhieu Igi ich khac nhau khi ap dung mdt khung phan tich panel VAR.
Dau tien, nd cho phep tinh khong ddng nhat ca nhan khdng quan sat dugc khi no kham pha khia canh cheo qua viec xem xet mdt bang dii lieu cac dia phuang.
Thir hai, trong khi mo hinh dli xii vdi tit ca cac bien la ndi sinh (nhu trong md hinh VAR truyen thdng), nd lam tang hieu qua va siic manh cua suy luan thdng ke khi ma nlu udc tinh mpt md hinh VAR a cap dia phuang se co qua it bac ty do va dan din sy thien lech miu nhd (small-sample bias) (theo Agnello va Sousa, 2013).
Thu ba, mac dii thyc te ring each tilp can Panel VAR cua chung tdi ap dat cung mpt cdu tnic cho 11101 dan VI cheo, no cung cho phep chiing ldi phat hien ra moi quan he nang dong thong thudng (Gavin
& Theodorou. 2005). Trong khi \ i n dl nav c6 thi
dupe giai quyit bing thii tyc mean-differencing dtr lipu va su dung hieu iing cd djnh, mdi tucmg quan tiim nang giiia hidu iing co dinh v i cac bien hdi quy din din udc lugng bi chSch (Holtz-Eakin & cpng sir, 1988), dac biet l i khi kich thudc thdi gian li nhd (Nickell, 1981). D I tranh vdn d l nay, chung tdi sii dung mean-differencmg phia trudc, ciing dugc ggi la <thu tyc Helmert> (xem Arellano & Bover, 1995).
Thu tyc nay chi loai bd cic tnmg bmh phia hudc, nghTa la trung binh ciia tit c i cic quan sit tuang lai cd gii tri cho moi firm-year. Su chuyen ddi niy dam bio tinh true giao giiia cac bien dugc chuyen ddi va cac bien hdi quy tri, vi vay chung tdi cd the sir dung biln hdi quy tre nhu cic bien cong cu vi udc lupng cic he sd bdi GMM he thdng (xem Love &
Zicchino, 2006).
Thii tu, d& tinh toan cic ham phin iing xung, chiing tdi ap dat mpt qua trinh nhin dang tam giic va chuyen ddi he thdng trong mdt VAR 'de quy' (Hamilton, 1994). Chiing tdi tinh toan nhiing cii soc tryc giao (orthogonalized shock). Bang viec true giao hda cac phin iing ciia cic bien, chiing tdi cd the nh^n dien tac dgng cua mot cii sdc tai mdt thdi dilm trong khi giii cac cii sdc khac khdng ddi.
Trudc khi ap dyng panel VAR, mdt loat cac kiem dinh dugc bao gdm. Thir nhat, sy hien dien ciia nghiem dan vi cua mdi bien trong bing dugc kiem dinh su dung kiem dinh nghiem dan vi tren dir lieu bang Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) (xem Levin &
cdng su, 2002). Thii hai, kiem dinh ddng lien kit de nhan dien mdi quan he dai han giiia cac bien cung dupe thuc hien sir dyng kiem dinh ddng lien ket tren du- lieu bang Westerlund (Westerlund, 2007). Dp tri thich hgp cho mo hinh panel VAR dugc chpn dua tren tieu chuan thdng tin Akaike (AlC).
Nhu dupe the hien bdi cac nghien cim trudc do (Case & Shiller, 1988; Glindro & cdng sy, 2008;
Hui & Yue, 2006), nhiing thay ddi trong tdc do tang gia nha d cd lien quan chat che hem vdi cac yeu to phia cau thay vi cac yeu td phia cung. Ngoai ra, nghien ciru tap trung chii yeu vao mdi quan he giira gia nhi d va chi tieu cdng. Do do, chi cd mdt sd cac bien kinh te vT md ca ban nhu thu nhap dai dicn bdi GRDP thuc (the hien hoat dpng kmh te tdng hpp thyc) va mirc gia (dai dien cho cac yeu td danh nghia trong nen kinh te) dugc kiem soat trong md hinh.
Cac dii lieu cho GRDP Ha Npi va ihanh pho Ho Chi Minh, chi tieu cong dia phuang va cac thanh
So 237 thdng 3/2017
ivinliliU'linlliifn
'- ' •
' epa--.'^' y cpi inv
si
quan sat60 60' 60 60
Bang 1.
Trung binh 4,6349 11,5937 4,6420 8,5332
Thong k e m 8 t i D3 l§ch chu^n
0,1261 0,4223 0,0334 0,3411
Nh6 nhiit 4,4853 10,8956 4,5864 7,0461
L6n nhat
4,9323 12,4969 4,7402 9,1589
0,3869 7,8048 9,3950
phan, CPI trgn dja ban dugc thu thip tii Cyc Thdng ke Ha Npi v i thinh phd Hd Chi Minh, tuong iing, trong khi chi sd gia nha thu dugc tii Tip doin Savills.
Chi sd niy dugc Savills xay dung v i tinh toan dvra trdn mpt iMu gdm hon 200 du an nha d trdn thj trudng sa cdp v i thur cip tai thinh ph6 Uh Chi Minh v i hon 160 dy an tren thi trudng so cap v i thii cap tgi H i Npi. Nghien ciiu nay sii dyng du lipu chudi thdi gian theo qu^ trong giai doan tii 2009Q1 din 2016Q2. Tat c i cic b i ^ dugc hieu chinh mua vu sii dyng thii tyc Census X-12 va sau do dupe chuyen ddi sang logarit ty nhien dl dim bio chudi dii lipu dn dinh han cho nghi6n ciiu.
Ve bien quan tam chinh, hai dai dien khic nhau cua chi tieu cdng dia phuang dugc sii dyng. Thu nhdt, chi thudng xuyen bao gdm nhilu loai khic nhau cua chi tieu. Vi dy, chi thudng xuydn bao gdm
chi phi cho chi tidu hipn hinh, chi phi quin ly, chi cii each tidn luang, chi luang huu, chi tri l§i... Thii hai, chi diu tu phit tri8n gdm cic cie loai chi pM lien quan tdi phit hidn nhu phit bien ca sd ha tdng, bio tri dudng s i v i xay dung dudng s i mdi. Cy die hon cho cic biln trong mo hinh, md ta thdng ke dugc hidn thi d bing 1.
4. Kit qua vh thAo luan
Md hinh Panel VAR nhu dupe mieu t i d phin ti-en dugc udc lugng vdi dd til 1, dugc lya chpn theo tieu chudn AIC sii dung phuang phip udc lupng GMM^.
Ket qui udc lugng cic md hinh Panel VAR cho mdi quan he giira chi tieu edng vi thi trudng bit dpng san dja phuang vdi biln phy thu^c dugc quan tam chinh l i chi sd gia hit ddng san dugc trinh bay d bang 2.
Bang 2: Ket qua u&c lugng mo hinh vdi bien phu thupc hp
p( 1)
y( 1)
cpK 1) inv(. 1) ot er( 1)
Ipsi 1)
Ghi chu: gia tri thong ke t S6 237 thdng 3/2017
(1) 0,712***
(4,08) -0,0125
(-1,21) -0,596*»
(-2,35) 0,0231**
(2,22)
trong ngoac Q, (2) 0,648***
(4,93) -0,0177*
(-1,87) -0,229 (-1,33)
-0,00068 (-0,06)
*/><0,i. *»p<0,05.
25
(3) 0,642***
(4,92) -0,0180*
(-1,94) -0,254 (-1,11) 0,00415 (0,29) -0,00249
(-0,19)
***p<OS)l
(4) 0,777***
(6,71) -0,0190***
(-2,69) -0,295**
(-2,08)
0.0112*
(1,71)
kilihtiyhiitti'irn
Diu tien, lien quan den vai trd cua bien quan tam chinh tiong trong nghien ciiu la chi sd gia nha d, nghidn cuu cho thay rang gia nha d cd quan he chat che vdi sy gia tang tiong chi tieu cdng cho diu tu phat triin. Tic ddng ciia chi ddu tu phit trien den gii nha d dg til 1 ky li duong, dugc bio cio d c i md hinh (1) va (3). Cic he sd udc tinh tir md hinh (1) cho thdy 1% tang len trong chi tieu diu tu phat triin ciia chinh phii din din mdt gia tang trong gii nhi d bdng 0,023% sau 1 quy, giii cic ylu td khic khdng ddi.
Kit qua nay ciing phan anh mdt thyc te rang khi chinh quyln dia phuang tang chi tieu vao viec xay dung dudng phd mdi, cii thien ca sd ha ting, tao ra cic khu vuc vui ehoi giai tri, va xiy dyng cdng vien mdi. Theo dd, nhiing viec niy giup nang cao chdt lugng tien nghi cdng cdng dja phuang, ning cao chit lupng cugc sdng ciia dan cu trong vimg, vi cd tie ddng tich cyc den gii nha d.
Dieu thii vi la, nghien ciiu cua chiing tdi cho thiy chi thudng xuyen trong qui khii dupe tim thdy cd diu hieu tie ddng am den gii nhi dat hien tai d ca md hinh (2) va (3), mac du khdng tim thdy bing chirng thdng ke. Tong chi tieu cdng bao gdm nhilu loai chi tieu khac nhau trong do chi tieu cho cac hoat ddng thudng xuyen vi tieu dung chiim mdt ty trpng kha Idn tai cac dia phuong, ban 40% (theo quyit toan ngan sach dia phuong). Can luu y ring nhirng khoan chi tieu nay khong the tao them gia tri cho xa hdi. Do do, gia tang chi thudng xuyen ciia dia phuong cd the phan anh ganh nang ngan sach cang ldn ma khdng cd ky vpng tang gia tn trong tuong lai, vi vay khdng cd tac ddng tang gia tai san hoac tham chi gia tai san se phan iing giam.
Khi thay thi timg thanh phdn chi tieu bing tdng chi tieu cdng, kit qua hi md hinh (4) cho thdy tdng chi tieu cong tac ddng ciing chieu din thi trudng bit ddng san Kit qua nay ciing phii hgp vdi kit qua cua ciic nghien ctiu khac (Gates, 1969, Garcia & cpng su, 2010 va Afonso & Sousa, 2011). Phat hien nay ciing h6 trp cho gia thuyit ciia mo hinh Tiebout cho rang mpt cpng d6ng cd lpi ihl chi tieu cao han se nang cao dirac mirc sdng dan cu trong cpng ddng va cd gia tri cao han trong bit dong san va nha d.
Ket qua cho thiy GDP co tac dpng tieu cue din gia nha Ket qua nay kha trai ngupc vdi kit qua ciia cac nghien ciru tmdc. vi du, Goodhart va Hofmann (2008) va Hofmann (2004) da tim thiy m6i quan he
Sd 237 thdng 3/2017 i.
tich cue giua GDP va gia nha v i hp giii tiiich rang GDP tang l i diu hipu thu nhap thuc tang 16n va sy gia tang dong thdi tiong nhu ciu bdt dpng sin. Do dd, tac ddng lim gia ca tren thi trudng bit dOng sin tang 16n. Tuy v|y, cic nghien cuu tien dugc thirc hien tai cac nude phat trien, vdi thu nhap ngudi dan d miic cao. Ci Viet Nam, Ii mdt qudc gia cd thu nhip thip/tnmg binh thap tiong giai doim nghien ciiu, mac dli nhu ciu ddi vdi nha d l i rat ldn, song mtic tic dpng ciia nhu ciu den gii c i tien thi trudng bdt dOng sin Ii ylu, ly do la vi dai bd phin dan cu cd diu nhip thdp, nlu miic gii tang cao han so vdi khi nang thi se khdng khuyen khich ngudi mua vi thi truemg cing ddng bang han niia. Thuc te da chiing minh, cac du i n nhi d xa hdi thudng cd gii ban thdp se thu hiit ngudi mua thay vi cic du in cao cip d Viet Nam.
Ngoai ra, thi trudng bit ddng sin Viet Nam cdn co the chiu tic dpng tir phia cung ngoii nhimg tic ddng tir phia ciu. Cac nha dau ca kinh doanh bdt dpng sin, dac biet la cic cdng ty kinh doanh bdt dpng san chii yeu sii dung ngudn vdn tin dung de diu tu va phai chiu ap lyc lai suit ciing nhu cac vdn dl lien quan den chi phi xiy dung v i chi phi hinh chinh cao. Do dd, cic nhan td nay cUng cd thi tao nen nhiing tie ddng tong hgp cimg vdi GDP den gia nha.
Chinh vi vay, GDP tang cd till khdng thudn tiiy cii tic ddng tich cue din gia ca tren thi ttordng bit dpng sin Viet Nam. Phat hien niy cung dupe cimg c6 bdi cic nghien ciiu ttudc, vi du. Ley & Judith (2001).
Hinh 1 hien thi cic do thi ciia ham phan irng xung vdi dii rpng sai so 5% dugc tao ra bdi md phong Monte Carlo 200 vong lap ciia cac bien vdi cac cii sdc chi tieu cdng tir md hinh (3)^ Cu thi, xem xet phan img cua cic bien vdi cii sdc chi thudng xuyen, cii sdc mot dp lech chuin trong chi thudng xuyen dja phuong lim tang chi ddu tu phat triin, mirc gia va san lugng trong nin kinh tl. Gia nha phan img giam ngay lap tiic vdi cii sdc chi thucmg xuyen dia phuang, my nhicn miic dp giam cham va dai dang, su sut giam Idn nhit bit dau tir quy thii 4 vdi miic 0,09%.
Sau mdt cii sdc ducmg cua chi dau tu phat trien, gia nha phan iing tang sau 2 quy dau tien, miic tang la 0,1 % d quy 1 va tiep tuc tang d quy thii 2. Gia nha chi xuat hien dau hieu dn dinh sau 10 ky, dieu nay co the dugc ly giai bdi tinh chat chi cho dii han ciia cac khoan chi dau tu phat tnen. Cii sdc chi dau tu phat Iricn dia phuong ciing cd tac dpng tich cyc den tdng
hiiiliii'J'liiiitm
Hinh 1: Ham phan ung xung
Impulse-responses for 1 lag panel VAR
H H i^ H '
Errors are 5% on each side generated by Monte-Carlo v^/ith 200 reps
sin pham tren dia bin va miic gii. Cy the, GRDP dia phuang phin iing tang ngay sau 1 quy tdi 0,43% va duy tri miic tang trong nhieu quy tiep theo. Chi dau tu phat trien la mdt thanh phan trong tdng chi tieu cdng, trong dd chi tieu cdng lai la nhan td kich thich tdng ciu, gia tang sin lupng. Ben canh do, chi dau tu phat trien la khoan chi mang linh tich liiy, lim gia tang CO sd vat chat cho dia phuang, la dieu kien de kich thich sin xuit va thu hut ngudn lyc diu tu tren dia ban. Do dd, phan irng ciing chieu ciia GRDP vdi cu sdc chi dau tu phat trien dugc hd trg."*
5. Kit luan va ham y chinh sich
Trong nd lyc de ddng gdp nipt phan nhd nhung ngay cang tang ciia nhirng bang chirng thyc nghiem lien quan den cic yeu to quyet dinh gia nha dat, nghien ciru nay da xem xet mpt gia thuyet phd bien, ring nlu chinh quyen tang chi tieu cong se gay ra mpt su dot biln trong gia nha dit tai dja phuang, trong mot nin kinh te dang chuyen doi. Dya Uen cac kit qua thuc nghiem, mot sd ket qua chinh cd the dupe tdm tat nhu sau.
Diu tien, sy tang trudng nhanh chong ciia chi dau tu phat triln hoac tdng chi tieu cong duoc tim thay cd lac ddng duong den gia nha d, mot sy gia tang
trong chi thudng xuyen di ciing vdi sy sut giam gii nhi d. Ket qui nay ngu y hai dieu. Mdt mat, nhiing phat hien cd the cho rang mdt trong nhiing giai phap kiem che lam phat gia nha d la ban che chi tieu vao dudng phd, CO sd ha ting mdi, va bio tri dudng phd cQng nhu cai thien cac tda nhi. Mat khac, chinh phii CO the dya vio cic loai thue, phi lien quan den nha d va chuyen nhuong dat dai nhu li mpt ngudn thu ngoai ngan sach quan trpng de bii dap cho tham hut ngan sach, tac dpng duang ciia chi dau tu phat triin den gia nhi dit ciing c6 the phin anh rang cac hd gia dinh trong khu vyc mi cac dy in dau tu' duac thuc hien cd the san sang tri tien cho sy gia tang trong chi tieu cdng thdng qua cac loai thul va phi. Ly do Ii viec tang gia nha d cd the tao ra cac hieu iing tai san duang cho cac hd gia dinh.
Cudi ciing, nhu kit qui dugc chi ra bdi Brueckner (1979), cic cdng ddng dang cung cip hang hda cdng cao hon miic hieu qua thi khi giam chi tieu cong cd the lam lang gia tri tai sin, dilu nay cd thi gpi y vl mpt hieu ling ngudng trong mdi quan he giua chi tieu cdng dia phuang vi thi trudng bdt ddng san, la nipt hudng nghien ciiu tilm nang cho cac nghien ciru trong tuang lai.
Sd 237 thdng 3/2017 killlliy'iliillnri!
P H U L U C 1. K e t q u a k i l m dinh n g h i f m dffn vi L L C
Bien
P
y
cpi inv ot er
Ips
LLC-Stat
-0,7948
-0,3330
-0,7281
^,2692
-3,3369
-1,6361
p-value
0,2134
0,3696
0,2333
0,0000
0,0004
0,0509
Biln
V y cpi
LLC-Stat
-2,6829
-4,3283
-5,2700
p-value
0,0036
0,0000
0,0000
2. K i e m dinh dd tr£ toi u u cho cae m d hinh P V A R
Mo liinli
Ddtrl
1
2
3
(1)
-33,54373
-23,25703
(2)
-39,39697
-20,22588
(3)
-21,53145
(4)
-26,15154
-22,9254
Ghi chii: Gid tri the hi?n trong bdng Id gid tri tieu chudn thdng tin Akaike (AIC). Ddu " - " thi hien khdng tinh diroc gid tri tgi do tre ndy.
Ghi chii:
1. Ket qua kiem dinh tinh vung cho thay, khi thay d6i trat tu cac biln, k i t qua hdu nhu khong thay d6i 2. Cac kiem dmh tinh dimg tren dir lieu bang cho thdy cac biln gdc la khong dimg ngoai tni inv. other va Ips, khi idy
sai phan cac bien khong dimg, tat ca cac bien sai phan nay diu dimg. Kilm dinh ddng lien kit tren du lieu bang cung bao cao ket qua khong c6 moi quan he dai han giua cac bien. Sau do mo hinli Panel VAR duac uac luong vai cac bien sai phan ciia cac bien khong dimg va biln gdc dimg. (Kit qua cac kilm dinh nay se duoc cung c^p tir tac gia neu yeu cau)
3 Bca vi muc Ueu ciia nghien ciro la quan IJim din tac dong cua tirng ihanii phin chi ticu cong din ihi trudng bit dong san. do do mo hinli (3) duac lya chon de thuc hien phan ung xung Kit qua kicm dinh cho thiy tinh 6n djnli cua mo hinh dugc dam bao va mo hinh la phii hap.
4 Ket qua phan ra phuang sai sai so dir hao khong diroc bao c i o do gidi han s6 luong tix ciia bai bao, song se duac cung ciip tir lac gia neu yen ciu
LOT thua nhan/cam o-n: Nghi6n cuu nay diroc tai ira baQuy phat tnen khoa hoc va congnghequdc gia (NAFOSTED) trong dc lai ma so 115 3 - 2013 03
So 237 thdng 3/2017 Kinfilcj'iiiillrjiij]
Tki li§u tham khao
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So 23 ' thdng 3/201 ~ Vl r • n - r.u , - •
