Tai c l u true kinh te ASEAN: Nhin tip goc do dieu chmh chmh sach xuat khau
TRAN Birc HUY*
SYCHANTHA THAMMAVONG**
Cupc khung hodng tdi chinh todn cdu 2008 da co nhiing tdc ddng ndng ne ddi vdi nin Mnh ti cita cdc nudc ASEAN, ddc biit doi vdi ITnh vuc thuang mgi, bdi cdu thi gidi ddi vdi hang xudt khdu cita ASEAN gidm mgnh. Chinh vi vdy, trong giai dogn 2008 - 2012, cdc nude ASEAN dd nd lice tdi cdu true nin kinh ti nhdm khdc phuc nhitng hdu qud cita cudc khung hodng ndy, trong do cd nhitng bien phdp
dieu chinh chiin luac dua vdo xudt khdu.
I. T i c dong cua cuoc khung hoang tai chinh kinh te to^n cau doi vdi xuat khau cua ASEAN
Trdi vdi nhiing dy dodn ban ddu, cdc nudc ASEAN dd chiu tdc ddng nang ne ciia khung hodng kinh t l todn cau va mile do dnh hudng ciia cudc khiing hodng lan nay dugc coi la sdu rdng hon cudc khung hodng tai chinh chdu A ndm 1997 - 1998. Tir cudi nam 2008, tdng trudng kinh t l bdt ddu giam va vdo ndm 2009 cd nhilu nudc ASEAN ldm vdo tang trudng am, cy the Id Malaysia dat toe do tdng trudng -1,7%, Thai Lan dat -2,3%, Singapore 0,2%. Ndm 2010, tang trudng cua cdc nudc ASEAN bdt ddu hdi phuc, dat trung binh 7,8%i cho todn khu vyc ASEAN, tuy van thip hon miic 8,9% ttong giai doan 2003 2007, d i l u dd cho thiy hieu qud cua cdc chinh sdch chdng khiing hodng cua cdc chinh phu.
Ndm 2011, tang trudng GDP cua todn khu vuc ASEAN dat 5 , 1 % do kinh te toan cau
* Vi^nKinh te vi Chfnh tri The gidi
** B$ Ke ho^ch vk Oha tir L&o
dinh tre vd nhiing khd khan mdi ciia cdc nen kinh t l khu vyc. Cdc nen kinh te dya nhieu vdo xuat khau nhu Malaysia, Thdi Lan deu cd mile tang trudng thdp, dat 3,8% vd 3,9%
tuong ling ndm 2 0 1 1 ' .
Thuong mai ASEAN la ITnh vyc chiu anh hudng nghiem trgng nhat tir cudc khiing hodng tai chinh toan cau. Vdo thdi ky trudc khiing hoang, tang trudng xuat khdu cua cdc nudc ASEAN dat tdc do tren dudi 10%, nhung b i t d i u tu ndm 2008, tdng trudng xuit khau gidm manh. Trong giai doan 2004 •, 2007, tang trudng x u i t khiu ciia Indonesia dat 12%/nam, Malaysia dat 8,9%/nam, Philippines dat 9,7%/nam, Singapore djt 13%/nam, Thai Lan dat 7,5%/nam, nhung sang ndm 2008 chi cdn 9,5% (Indonesia), 1,3% (Malaysia vd Singapore), : l , 9 % (Philippines), 5,5% (Thai Lan). Nam 2009, tdng trudng x u i t k h i i j cuti h i u h i t cdc nudc ASEAN d l u am hai cd^^^d (xem Bdng I)
' HIS Global Insight
-NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHiNH TR! TH^ Gidl S6 8(196) 2012
Tran Du-c Huy - Syehantha Thammavong Tai cau true kinh te ASEAN:.
Xuat khau hang hoa va dich vu cua mot so nudc chau A
Ban vi: % Nudc
Tnmg Qudc Indonesia Hdn Qudc Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thdi Lan
Giai doan 2004 - Tang trudng xuat
khau 24,1 12,0 12,9 8,9 9,7 13,0
7,5
2007 GDP
37,8 31,7 40,5 115,0
47,1 233,6
72,8
2008 Tang trudng
xuat khau 8,6 9,5 5,7 1,3 -1,9
1,3 5,5
GDP 36,5 29,8 52,9 103,6
36,9 234,3
76,4
2009 Tang trudng
xuat khau -15,9 -19,4 -14,3 -24,9 -29,2 -20,2 -12,0
Ngudn: World Bank, ADB (key indicators) vd IMF, theo Yilmaz Akyuz (2011), The Global Economic Crisis and Asian Developing Countries: Impact, Policy Response and Medium-term Prospects, TWN Global Economy Series.
Sy syt gidm manh xuat khdu cua ASEAN chil ylu Id do mile cau hdng hda xuat khau ciia cac quoc gia ASEAN tren thi trudng My va chau Au gidm manh. Hinh 1 cho thay, xuit khiu hang hda cua cdc nudc dang phdt ttiln chau A (chu ylu Id cdc nudc ASEAN) sang thi trudng My vd chau Au bit diu gidm tu thdng 9 nam 2008, tilp tyc gidm manh trong ndm 2009 vd phuc hoi nhe vdo ndm 2010 - 2011, nhung;
van thip hon nhilu so vdi mile do xuit khai^
sang My vd EU trong giai doan trudc khiing hoang. Xuit khiu hdng hda ciia ASEAN sang thi trudng Trung Quoc ciing giam manh ttong Quy IV ndm 2008 va ndm 2009, nhung sau do phyc hdi nhanh chdng vdo nam 2011 va nhilng thdng diu ndm 2012. Tai thdi dilm nam 2008 - 2009, nin kinh tl Trung Qudc cung bi anh hudng ndng nl ciia khimg hodng, vd mile tang trudng xuit khiu cua nudc nay syt gidm chi cdn d mile I con sd, dat 8,6% vao nam 2008, thdm chi la 15,9% nam 2009 so vdi mile tang 24,1%/nam ciia giai doan 2004 - 2007. Nhu ciu ddi vdi cac mat hang xuit khau cua ASEAN tten thi trudng My, chau Au va Trung Qudc deu giam manh, khiln cdc nudc phu thudc nhieu
vdo xuit khau nhu Malaysia va Thdi Lan, Singapore chiu tdc ddng nang ne hon nhieu nude ASEAN khdc.
Xuit khiu gidm manh da dnh hudng nang ne din tang trudng GDP ciia cdc nin kinh tl ASEAN. Theo ddnh gid ciia tfy ban Kinh te vd xa hdi Lien hgp qudc vl chau A va Thai Binh Duong (ESCAP-2010), suy gidm xuit khiu trong 2 nam 2008 2009 da khiln tang trudng GDP ciia cdc nudc Ddng A gidm khodng 5 6%. Cdn theo ddnh gid cua Ngdn hang Phdt ttiln chau A (ADB, 2009), nhung nudc cd mile do phu thudc cao vao xuat khau cd tdc do sut giam tang trudng GDP nhilu hon cac nudc cd miic do phy thudc thip hon vdo xuit khau.
Trong giai doan 2007 2009, xuit khiu giam manh da lam Singapore syt gidm 12,8% trong tang trudng GDP, Malaysia gidm 6,4% tang trudng GDP, Thdi Lan giam 6,9% tdng trudng GDP. d cdc nudc it phu thudc xuit khiu hon, GDP ciing giam: Philippines giam 4,6%, Viet Nam giam 3,9% vd Indonesia gidm 2,7%^.
^ ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol 27, No 1, 2010.
NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHiNH TRj IHt GIOI So 8(196) 2012 - 39'
Tai cdu true kinh te ASEAN:, Trdn Birc Huy - Syehantha Thammavong
Hinh 1: Xuat khau ciia mot so nudc chau A (trir Trung Quoc va Nhat Ban) sang thi trudng My, chau Au va Trung Quoc
Ban vi: Ty USD
eo
S 5 5 0 A5
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0
Xuit khau sang Trung Qudc
Xuat khau sang My va chau Au
2000—0:^ tr
^ M M -a- <§" S Ngudn: Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and
Tai nhieu nen kinh te hudng ve xuat khau ASEAN, xudt khau gidm di lien vdi nhap khau gidm do hang hda tam nhap tai xuat chiem mdt ty trgng ldn trong cdn can nhap khau cua ASEAN. Hoat ddng thuong mai tri tre da tdc ddng den can can thanh todn, dy trii ngoai hdi vd ty gid cua cdc nudc ASEAN. Ty gid hdi dodi giila ddng rupiah Indonesia va ddng USD giam 19,7% vao cudi nam 2008; Cdc ddng tien khdc cua Malaysia, Singapore, Thdi Lan va Philippines ciing ddng loat phd gia tai thdi diem cudi nam 2008 cho den tan thang 4 nam 2009, sau dd ty gid dn dinh.
Trong cudc khimg hodng tdi chinh todn cau, xu hudng bao hd thuong mai ngay cdng gia tdng tten the gidi. Nhieu nudc da dp dung cdc chinh sdch kich cau ndi dia, kich thich san xuat ttong nudc, cd vu ngudi tieu dimg ttong nudc dimg hang ndi dia de bii dap su cdt giam ciu ngodi nudc do khimg hodng gay ra. Theo sd lieu cua Td chuc Thuong mai The gidi (WTO), xu hudng bao hg thuong mai d 20 nen kinh tl ldn nhat the gidi (G20) khdng he giam siit trong 7 thang diu nam 2011. K I tir thang 10/2011, vdi muc dich nhanh chdng phuc hdi kinh te sau cudc khimg hoang kinh te toan cau, cdc nudc G20 da dua ra 124 bien phdp bao hd mau dich mdi nhu ty ve thuong mai va tang thul quan.
^ <^ ^ <^ i J ^ Pacific 2012.
Dieu nay da tdc ddng den 1,1% lugng hdng hoa nhdp khau cua G20, tuong duong 0,9% lugng hang hda nhdp khau the gidi. Quy Tien te quoc tl (IMF) cho bilt, tir thdng 4/2010 din thdng 9/2011, cdc bien phdp bdo hd mau dich da khien kim ngach xuat khau the gidi gidm tir 5 - 8% va kim ngach mau dich toan cau giam khoang 0,2%, tuong duong 30 den 35 ty USD mdi nam^.
Trudc nhiing thdch thilc trong nudc vd qudc te ddi vdi hoat dgng xuat khau, cac nudc ASEAN trong thdi gian qua da tich cyc dieu chinh chien luge dya vdo xuat khau nhdm khac phyc nhiing hau qud ciia khiing hoang, ddng thdi xdy dyng mdt co cau kinh te mdi thich ilng vdi tinh hinh the gidi hien nay.
2. Dieu chinh chien luffc dua vao xuat khau cua cac nudc ASEAN sau khung hoang
2.1. Bieu chinh chinh sdch xudt khiu sau khiing hodng
Chinh phii cdc nudc ASEAN tilp tuc khdng dinh cin phai tilp tyc hdi nhap sau vao nin kinh tl todn ciu, tilp tyc chiln luge hudng vao xuat
' http ://vef. vn/2012-06-17-bao-ho-mau-dich-gia-tang- van-nan-kinh-te-moi
-NhOng vin di KINH j t VA CHiNH TRj TH^ GIOI S6 8(196) 2012
Tran DCfc Huy - Syehantha Thammavong Tai c l u triic kinh te ASEAN:...
khau theo hudng da dang hda co ciu xuat khau, CO cau thi trudng va nhilu bien phdp khdc. Co cau xuat khiu hang hda cua hiu hit cdc nudc ASEAN hien nay dlu dugc chia lam 3 nhdm hdng chinh: hang chl tao, hang khai khoang va hang so che. Ba nhdm hdng hda nay khdc nhau ve thi trudng tieu thu vd mile cau. Vi vay, mot sd nudc ASEAN nhu Malaysia, Indonesia da dp dung ehinh sdch can ddi co cau xuat khau.
Chdng han, trong co cau xuit khiu hdng chl tao, Malaysia tap trung nhilu cho ngdnh cdng nghiep dien va dien tir, nhung dong thdi ciing md rdng cdc hang che tao xudt khau khdc nhdm trdnh nhirng riii ro khi mile cau thi gidi vl hang dien va dien tir syt giam manh. Tai Thdi Lan, Bd Thuang mai da thyc hien chinh sdch ddm bdo giii dugc nhung ban hang ldn ciia minh, ddng thdi tang co hdi tiep thi cac sdn pham mdi, thiic ddy xudt khdu luong thyc va thyc phdm, phd bien nghe thuat dm thyc Thdi Lan ra the gidi vd thiic day xuat khdu hang ndng sdn.
Nang cap cdc hdng hda xuat khau hien cd la mot ttong nhUng bien phdp khdc dugc chinh phu nhieu nudc ASEAN thyc hien de tang them gid tti gia tang va tri thirc cho cdc hdng hda dd.
Cdc nudc nay ciing day manh gid tri xudt khau ciia khu vyc dich vu. Theo sd lieu dugc cdc chuyen gia tham dy Hdi nghi Thugng dinh vl thuang mai va diu tu ASEAN (ASEAN-BIS) nam 2010, xuit khiu dich vy la mdt ITnh vyc tilm ndng cua cdc doanh nghiep ASEAN nhung chi chilm khodng I5%p gia tri xuit khiu toan khdi, do vay ASEAN cin phai cd nhung bien phdp tich cyc dl thiic diy xuit khau dich vu ciia
•khu vyc nay. Malaysia da tdng cudng chiln dich thiic diy xuit khiu dich vy du lich, djch vu cdng nghe thdng tin vd dich vu kinh doanh thdng qua hanh lang da phuong tien, dich vu tdi chinh Hdi giao, dich vu y tl vd siic khde, dich vu vdn hda, dich vu hang khdng chi phi thip.
Thai Lan thyc hien cdc chiln dich nhu: "Dem
ddng baht tdi Thai Lan", "Mdt gia cho tit ca ede dia diem" de kich cau du lich ndi dia va riham quang bd Thai Lan nhu la mdt dilm din hap dan, vdi muc tieu thu hiit th^m khach du lich tir cac thi trudng khdc.
Da dang hda thi trudng xuat khau da dugc cdc nudc ASEAN thyc hien tich cue trong thdi gian qua. Sau khimg hodng, thi phin xuit khau hang hda cua ASEAN sang cac thi trudng truyen thdng nhu My va EU sut giam nghiem ttgng, vi vay chien luge da dang hda thi trudng xuat khau la mdt trong nhiing chinh sach dugc hdu het cac nudc trong khu vyc lya chgn. Trong trudng hgp Malaysia, thj trudng My chiem tdi 21,7% kim ngach xuat khau cua nudc nay nam 1996, nhung nam 2009 gidm cdn 13,2%; thi trudng EU giam tir 14,5% xudng 12,2% va thi trudng Nhdt Ban gidm tir 11,1% xudng 7%
ttong cung thdi ky'' Trong trudng hgp Viet Nam, theo so lieu cua Bg Cdng thuong, thi trudng chinh Id My, EU va Nhat Ban giam nhu ciu nhap khiu (hien chiem khoang 60% tdng tti gid xuit khiu hang hod cua Viet Nam) da gay khd khan rit ldn cho Viet Nam. Kim ngach xuat khiu ciia Viet Nam vao thi trudng My giam 7%, vao EU gidm 10%, vao ASEAN giam 6%^
Chinh vi vay, thi trudng Ddng A, thi trudng ndi khdi ASEAN, thi trudng Uc, chau Phi va chau My Latinh dugc ddnh gid la nhimg thi trudng dugc cac nudc ASEAN chii trgng sau khiing hoang nhdm thay thi cac thi trudng My, EU, Nhat Ban dang bi thu hep.
Cimg vdi viec can ddi lai chien luge hudng vl xuat khiu, mdt loat cdc bien phdp tien te va
' Mahani Zainal Abidin (2010): The International Crisis and Development Strategies: the Case of Malaysia, World Bank
' littp://www.misa.com.vn/tabid/9 l/newsid/5342/Hau- khung-hoang-Mo-hinh-nao-la-phu-hop.aspx
NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj THt Giai So 8(196) 2012 - 41
Tai c i u triic kinh td ASEAN: Trdn BiJc Huy - Syehantha Thammavong
ty gid nham khuyen khich xuat khau ciing dugc cdc nudc thuc hien ttong thdi gian qua. Ngan hang trung uong cdc nudc ASEAN phdi hgp thyc hien cdc chinh sdch gidm lai suat, ndi long tiln te, tin dung uu dai va tang cudng hgp tdc khu vyc theo Sang kien Chiangmai. Chinh sdch
tien te ciia Singapore tap trung dn dinh ty gia hdi dodi, vd kilm chl lam phdt. Viet Nam thyc hien chinh sdch ndi long tien te, trong khi Philippines thyc hien chinh sdch ndi Idng ySu cau dy trii ngoai te, ha lai suat cho vay lien ngdn hang, tang bdo hiem tien guri.
Hinh 2: Ty gia hoi doai cua cac dong tien chau A so vdi ddng USD Index, 2008 = 100
Source: EcoWin.
Malaysia Philippines
Ngudn: Working Paper 138, Asia-outlook After the Crisis, 10/2010.
Ben canh dd, de khuyen khich xuat khdu, chinh sdch ty gid ciia cdc nudc ASEAN ciing dugc dilu chinh linh hoat. Vdo cudi nam 2008 va diu nam 2009, hang loat cdc nudc chau A, trong dd ed cac nudc ASEAN da tien hanh phd gid dong ndi te de thiic day xudt khau. Tuy nhien, viec pha gia dd ciing khdng cd tdc dung khuyin khich xuit khau trong thdi diem ndy, bdi muc ciu ddi vdi hdng hda ASEAN tren the gidi bi thu hep manh, do vay chinh phu cdc nudc ASEAN da chuyen hudng sang chii trgng miic cau trong nudc va duy tri ty gia hdi dodi linh hoat. Ddng ndi te cua cdc nudc ASEAN tir nira cudi ndm 2009 den nay da bdt dau len gid so vdi ddng USD, ddng thdi cdc nudc ASEAN bat ddu tdng cudng thuc hien
chinh sdch ty gid hoi dodi phdi hgp vdi nhau thdng qua Sang kiln Chiang Mai dl duy tri ty gia hdi doai dn dinh.
2.2. Phdt trien thi trudng ndi dia nham gidm phu thudc vdo xuat khau
Hiiih I cho thiy, sau khung hodng, xuit khau cua nhilu nudc ASEAN dudng nhu nghieng nhilu vl Trung Qudc. Theo nhilu chuyen gia ddnh gid, xu hudng nay dang biln cdc nudc ASEAN din ttd thanli ngudn cung cip ban thanh phim cho Trung Qudc &h phuc vu hoat ddng xuit khiu ciia Trung Qudc. Tap chi Far Eastem Economic Review trong sd 1 ndm 2012 da minh chiing: mdt chile may vi tinh, liic diu dugc thilt kl d Nhdt Ban hay Dai Loan, sau do
42i(- -NhOng vin di KINH i t Mk CHINH TR! T H t GIOI S6 8(196) 2012
Tran DiJc Huy - Syehantha Thammavong Tai cau true kinh te ASEAN:...
linh kien dugc ehl tao d Malaysia, Thdi Lan hay Indonesia, sau cimg thi Trung Qudc Idp rdp thdnh sdn phim hodn chinh dl ban cho EU vd My. Khi thi trudng EU vd My gap suy thoai.
gidm Slit, ddn den hdng hda xudt khau cila ASEAN syt gidm theo (xem Bdng 1). Nhu vay, ve lau ddi sy phu thudc kinh te vdo Trung Qudc se gay ra nhieu nguy co cho nen kinh te cac nhu cdu nhdp khdu hang hda cua Trung Qudc nudc ASEAN.
Hinh 3: Cac yeu to quyet dinh xuat khau cua ASEAN vao Trung Quoc Phuc vu nhu cau trong
nudc cua Trung Quoc
Phuc vu xuat khau ciia Trung Quoc Cdc nha xuat khau hang hda Uc (1,79%)
Indonesia (0,68%) New Zealand (1,66%) Cdc nhd xuat khau hang hda
che tao
An Do (1,03%) Hdng Cdng (0,81%) Nhat Bdn (1,28%) Han Qudc (1,18%) Malaysia (0,90%) Philippines (2,95%) Singapore (1,78%) Thdi Lan (1,37%)
Ngudn: Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific 2012.
Ghi chu: Sd trong ngoac dan thi him do co gidn xudt khdu sang Trung Qudc theo mice do quan trong 5%. Phdn trdng thi hien ddu hieu khdng quan trong tgi miic do 5%.
D I trdnh le thudc xuit khiu vao thi trudng Trung Qudc, cdc doanh nghiep ASEAN da tdng cudng chilm ITnh thi trudng ndi dia, coi day laTiudng co bdn va lau dai. Muc tieu chinh ciia cac gdi kich cau la ldm tdng tdng cau eua nin kinh tl, tao ra nhilu cdng dn viee ldm, ngdn chdn sy suy gidm kinh tl, kich thich kinh tl phat triln bdng cdch kich thich tieu dimg.
kich thich diu tu cua doanh nghiep. Trong sd cdc nudc ASEAN, Singapore da tung ra gdi kich ciu ldn nhit, chilm 11,5% GDP nam 2008, tilp theo la Philippines (chilm 4,6%
GDP ndm 2008). Cdc nudc khdc nhu Indonesia, Thai Lan, Viet Nam, Malaysia dlu thyc hien nhilng gdi kich cau nhd (chiem tren dudi I % GDP).
NhOng vin di KINH it \lk CHiNH TRj IHt GIOI So 8(196) 2012 •
Tdi cau true kinh td ASEAN: Tran Ou'c Huy - Syehantha Thammavong
Bdng 2: Can doi ngan sach va goi kich thich tai chinh cua mot so nudc ASEAN Nudc
Indonesia Malaysia Philippin Singapore Thdi Lan Viet Nam
Can doi ngan sach (% GDP) 2008
-1,1 -4,8 -1,0 7,0 -1,8 -5,0
2009 -2,5 -7,6 -3,2 -3,5 -3,5 -4,8
Goi kich thich tai chinh dau nam 2009 (% GDP 2008)
1,4 1,0 4,6 11,5
1,2 1,2 Nguon: ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol 27, No 1, 2010.
Cdc gdi kich cdu dugc thyc hien khdc nhau giOa cdc nudc. Chinh phii Thai Lan thyc hi6n chinh sdch kich cau hai giai doan vdi tdng sd tien bom vdo nen kinh te giai doan I la 3,35 ty USD, nhdm muc tieu phdt tien mat cho ngudi ngheo, gidm thue thu nhap cd nhan, mien hgc phi cho hgc sinh, trg gid diSn, nudc, tdu xe di lai cho ngudi dan. Giai doan 2, bit diu tir thdng 3 nam 2009, Chinh phii Thai Lan khuyin khich tiSu diing ttong nudc bdng each ttg cap 2.000 bath/thdng cho vien chiic nha nudc cd thu nhap dudi 15.()00 bath/thdng (khodng 7,5 trifu ddng Vi8i Nam). Khodng 9 ttieu ngudi dan Thdi Lan nhan dugc gdi kich cau nay, cd tdc dung rat ldn ttong kich cau tieu dimg ttong nudc.
Chinh phu Philippines thyc hien gdi kich cau tu diu ndm 2009 tri gid 330 ty peso nhdm tang chi tieu chinh phii (160 ty peso), phdt ttiln co sd ha ting (100 ty peso), thanh toan an sinh xa hdi (30 ty peso) vd cdt gidm thul cho doanh nghiep (40 ty peso). Singapore dua ra gdi kich thich kinh tl 13,8 ty USD (ndm 2009) trong dd cd chuong trinh tin dung viec lam bdng each hd ttg tien mat ddi vdi cdc chii sir dung lao dgng de giiip hg ttang trai mgt phin chi phi lucng va ttanh sa thdi lao ddng; giam 20%i thul thu nhap
cd nhan din han, ddi vdi lao ddng khd khdn trg cip them 300 500 SGD/ngudi/thdng...
Malaysia nam 2009 ciing chi 27,9 ty ringit dl trg gid mdt sd hang hda nhu xang diu, gas, Ilia my, bdnh my, bdt my, dudng, gao, sdch vd hgc sinh, phiic lgi xa hdi, chi phi giao thdng cho ngudi dan.
Cimg vdi kich ciu tieu dimg, cdc bien phdp kich ciu diu tU ciing dugc cdc nudc ASEAN thyc hien tich cyc. Singapore cam kit gianh 1,5 ty USD dl giiip cdc doanh nghiep nhd dugc tiep can tin dung ttong bdi canh kinh te suy giam de khuyin khich san xuat, xuat khdu. Indonesia no lyc tim kilm co hoi xuit khiu vd diu tu, phdt triln kinh tl ttong nudc nhdm dat myc tieu tdng trudng kinh tl; su dyng hieu qua ngdn sdch nha nudc, tang cudng hgp tac giiia chi'nh phu, Ngan hdng Trung uong vdi cdc ngan hdng vd khu vyc tu nhan... Chinh phu diy nhanh tdc do gidi ngan 25.900 ty rupi ttong khoan 290.000 ty rupi danh cho mang ludi an sinh xa hdi. Vdi gdi kich thich tti gid 73.300 ty mpi (tuong duong 6,3 ty USD) nam 2009, Chinh phii hidonesia danh 6.500 ty rupi uu tien cho cdc doanh nghiep tdng sdn xuat, gidm chi phi va ttanh sa thdi cdng nhan. Thai Lan vay 2 ty USD tir cdc quy va cdc
-NhOng vin di KINH Tt Mk CHINH TRj IHt Gidl S6 8(196) 2012
Tran Dij'c Huy - Syehantha Thammavong Tai cau true kinh te ASEAN:, td chile tin dung qudc tl gdp phin vyc day nen
kinh te. Ben canh hoat ddng khuyin khich xuat khau, cdc nudc ASEAN ciing tang cudng hdi nhap kinh te ndi khdi vd coi tieu thu ndi dia lam try cdt ciia sy phdt trien. Nhd cac khodn kich thich tdi chinh ldn va tinh ttang tdi chinh ciia khu vyc tu nhan tdt nen tieu dung ndi dia ciia ede nudc ASEAN da tdng 4% - 5% nam 2009 vadat7%nam2010^
2.3. Tim kiem nhOng ddng lu-c tang tnrdng m&l dua vdo thuong mai ndi viing
Sau cudc khiing hodng tdi ehinh todn ciu, cdc nudc ASEAN da dieu chinh chinh sdch xuit khdu eua minh theo hudng tap trung thyc hien thuong mai ndi vung Ddng A. Nhdn thiic dugc lgi ich cua hgp tdc thuong mai khu vyc, cdc nudc ASEAN cimg vdi cdc nen kinh te chau A khde da tim kiem phuang thirc phdt trien "thi trudng chau A" thdng qua viec thiic day cdc sdng kien hgp tdc khu vyc vd dp dung thue nhap khau hang hda ciia cac nudc ngoai khu vyc, tao ra mdt khu vyc thuang mai uu dai rieng. Mile thul nhap khdu dp dyng trong khu vyc Ddng A thip hon nhilu so vdi mile thue nhdp khau dp dung cho cdc khu vuc dia ly ngodi Ddng A.
Ddng thdi, cdc nudc ASEAN nd lyc thyc hien cdc sdng kien hgp tdc khu vyc nhu ddy manh viec thyc hien AFTA khu vyc ASEAN hodn thdnh diy dii vdo ndm 2010, buy bd nhilng han chl thuong mai dich vu theo Hiep dinh BChung ASEAN trong ITnh vyc dich vy (AFAS), no lyc thilt lap Cdng ddng Kinh tl ASEAN vao ndm 2015 dh tao dieu kien cho xuat khau. Ddi vdi cdc ddi tdc ldn trong khu vyc, ASEAN va Trung Qudc ciing thiic day nhanh tien trinh thyc hien CAFTA, cdc hiep dinh thuong mai ty do dugc ky kit vdi Han Qudc vd Nhat Bdn.
Tai Hdi nghi Thugng dinh ASEAN 14 vdo nam 2009, cdc nudc ASEAN da ky kit thyc hien FTA giiia ASEAN vdi Uc va New Zealand, ddng thdi ky thda thudn hgp tdc kinh te todn dien ASEAN - Han Qudc. Cdc thda thuan dugc ky ket nhu tren la nhdn td co bdn tang cudng lien ket thuong mai ndi vimg va cdc ddi tdc trong nhdm ddi thoai, giiip md rdng thi trudng cho hdng hda xuat khau cua khdi. Sd lieu thdng ke mdi nhat ciia Tdng cue Hdi quan Trung Qudc cho thay, tir thdng 1 din thdng 10 nam 2011, tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau giSa Trung Qudc vd ASEAN dat 295,91 ty USD, tdng 25,7% so vdi cimg ky nam 2010. Kim ngach thuang mai hai chieu giiia Trung Qudc vdi cac nudc thanh vien ASEAN tir thdng 1 den thdng 10 nam 2011 duy tri mile tang tten hai con sd. Trong 20 nam Trung Qudc va ASEAN thiet lap quan he ddi tac ddi thoai, kim ngach thuong mai song phuang tdng gap 38 lan. Gdn 10 nam ttd lai day, mile tang trung binh kim ngach thuong mai song phuong dat tten 20%/nam. Vdi tdc do nay, din nam 2013 kim ngach thuong mai song phuang se dat muc tieu 500 ty USD'
3. Trien vong kinh te ASEAN
Khi khiing hodng tai chinh toan cdu bimg phdt vdo nam 2008, ASEAN da doi phd khiing hodng bing cdc bien phdp dieu chinh vd tai cdu tnic kinh te nhu diu tu, xuit khdu vd tieu dimg trong nudc, coi trgng hgp tdc ndi vimg chau A dl tao da p'huc hdi kinh tl. Ngay tir cudi ndm 2010, 6 nudc thdnh vien cii ASEAN da huy bd 99,1% thu 3 quan hang hod, mile thue quan cua 98,86% h;mg hod ciia 4 nudc thdnh vien mdi ciing gidm xudng dudi 5%. Theo thdng ke cua Ban Thu ky ASEAN, tinh din cudi thdng 7/2011, cac nudc ASEAN da hoan thdnh tren 73% mue tieu trong Id ttinh xay dyng Cong ddng ASEAN. Thanh qua hgp tdc mdi nhit la ' http://www.tapchicongsan.org, vn/Home/Nghiencuu-
Traodoi/2011 /329/K.ich-cau-kinh-te-cua-cac-nuoc-
ASEAN.aspx 'http://vietnamese.cri.cn/481/2012/01/02/lsl66250.htm NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj TH^ GIOI So 8(196) 2012
-msi
Tai cau true kinh te ASEAN:.. Tran DiJc Huy - Syehantha Thammavong cdc nudc ASEAN nhdt tri ddng y diu tu 60 ty
USD cho xdy dung co sd ha ting nhu giao thdng, khoa hgc cdng nghe, thdng tin vd ngudn nhdn luc, day nhanh ket ndi ASEAN.
Cimg vdi viec xdy dyng Cong ddng ASEAN vdo ndm 2015, trien vgng kinh te ASEAN se cdng sdng sua hon.
Theo nhdn dinh cua IMF, mac dii kinh tl ASEAN gap nhieu khd khan ttong khiing hodng tai chinh todn cdu, nhung cdc bien phdp kich thich tieu dung trong nudc da giiip bii dap cho sy suy gidm cau ben ngodi. Kich cdu ndi dia da dugc cdc chinh phu ASEAN thyc hien thdng qua cdc bien phdp nhu cdi thien dieu kien cho dau tu tu nhan, gidi quyet tic nghen co sd ha tang, tdng cudng qudn ly nha nudc va cung cap dich vu cdng. Theo Bdo edo Diu tu todn ciu 2011 cdng bd tai Hdi nghi cua Lien hgp qudc ve thuong mai vd phdt trien (UNCTAD), lugng
vdn FDI chdy vdo cdc nudc ASEAN da tdng 107% nam 2010, so vdi mile gidm 19% ndm 2009. Trong sd vdn chdy vao thi trudng ASEAN, Singapore thu hiit tten 30%, Viet Nam 17%, Indonesia 16%, Thai Lan 13% v^
Malaysia 10%. Nhd dieu ehinh chinh sdch hudng ve xuat khau, xudt khau cua ASEAN dd phyc hdi sau khimg hoang.
Theo Bdo cdo "Trien vgng kinh te Ddng Nam A 2011 2012" cua Td chile Hgp tdc vd Phdt trien Kinh tl (OECD) cdng bd ngdy 29/11/2011, kinh tl Indonesia dy bdo se dat mile tang trudng tir mile 6,3% ndm 2011 len 6,6%/nam trong giai doan 2012 - 2016. Day la mure tang trudng cao nhat trong sd 6 nen kinh te ldn d Ddng Nam A. Malaysia ciing cd mire tang dy kiln 5,3%, Viet Nam 6,3%, Philippines 4,9%, Singapore 4,6%) vd Thdi Lan 4,5% ttong giai doan 2012-2016.
Bdng 3: Tang trudng GDP thuc cua mot so nudc ASEAN
Bom vj: %
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thai Lan Viet Nam
Binh quan 6 qudc gia
2010 6,1 7,2 7,3 14„5
7,8 6,8 7,6
2011 6,3 4,6 4,5 5,6 2,5 5,9 5,0
2016 6,9 5,6 5,1 4,8 4,9 6,7 5,9
Trung binh 2003 - 2007
5,5 6,0 5,7 7,5 5,6 8,1 6,1
Trung binh 2012 - 2016
6,6 5,3 4,9 4,6 4,5 6,3 5,6 Ngudn: OECD, theo Tgp chi Tdi chinh 18/1/2012.
Nhin chung, viec dilu chinh chinh sach xuit phdt triln kinh tl dn dinh va ben viing khi gdp khiu ciia ASEAN dem lai cho Viet Nam mot sd cdc cii sdc ben ngodi. Trudc khiing hodng tdi bai hgc co bdn. Thic nhdt, can can ddi chinh chinh toan ciu, cdc nudc ASEAN cd miic do sdch tdng trudng dya vao xuit khiu vdi chien tham gia sau rdng vao qud trinh todn ciu hda.
luge chii trgng thi ttirdng ndi dja nhdm ddm bao Tuy nhien, cudc khung hoang kinh tl toan ciu -NhOng vin di KINH it \lk CHINH TRj IHt Gidl S6 8(196) 2012
Tran OU'C Huy - Syehantha Thammavong Tai cau triic kinh te ASEAN:..,
2008 2009 da bude chinh phii cdc nudc ASEAN phdi dilu chinh chinh sdch phdt triln qud dya vdo xuit khiu cua minh do thuong mai todn cdu dang chiu tdc ddng ndng ne cua khimg hoang va chii nghTa bao hd mdi, hon niia thi trudng My vd EU tilp tuc am dam va chua cd ddu hieu phyc hdi. Thic hai, can da dang hda thi trudng xudt khdu va hang hda xuat khdu, trdnh tap tnmg cao do vdo mdt thi trudng hoac mdt hang hda nhdt dinh. Kinh nghiem ciia cdc nudc trong khu vyc cho thdy, thi trudng Ddng A, l^ew Zealand, Uc, My Latinh, chdu Phi vd Trung Ddng la nhung thi trudng tdt cho xuat khdu hdng hda ASEAN sau khiing hoang khi nhiing thi trudng xuat khau truyen thdng lam vao tinh ttang dinh tre. Hon niia, cdn phdi nang
gid tri gia tang cua cdc hang hda xuat khiu hien ed, phdt trien cdc hang hda hdm lugng tri thiic cao (nhu Malaysia da lam), ddng thdi chu y din nhiing hang hda dang khan hiem tren thi gidi nhu luong thyc, thyc phdm (Thdi Lan da thyc hien) nhdm md rdng xuat khdu vd thi trudng.
Thti ba, duy tri sy dn dinh ciia he thdng tdi chinh vd xdy dyng nang lyc de he thdng nay ddi phd vdi nhiing cii sdc toan cdu. Khi he thdng tdi chinh dil manh vd dugc qudn ly tdt, thi tdc ddng tir nhiing cii sdc ben ngodi se bi han che. Ngoai ra, can xdy dung the che kinh te ttong nudc dii manh, dn dinh kinh te vT md, tdng cudng dy trii ngoai te, duy tri ng ngan ban thdp va duy tri he thdng ty gid hdi dodi linh hoat de tao niem tin cho cdc nhd ddu tu va ngudi tieu dimg*
Tai lieu tham khao:
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7.
David Jay Green (2010): Southeast Asia's Policy Response to the Global Economic Crisis, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol 27, No 1, April.
Jin Tik (2009): Saving the Golden Goose: Why the Export-driven Growth Model Still Works for Malaysia, Stanford Joumal of Intemational Relations.
Kathrin Arandmeir (2011): Asian Economic Outlook - robust, but risks still remain.
Working Paper 148, July.
Mohani Zainal Abidin (2010): The International Crisis and Development Stratergies:
The Case of Malaysia, World Bank
Muhammad Chatib Basri (2010): Should Indonesia Say Goodbye to its Stratergy of Facilitating Exports, World Bank.
YilMax Akyuz: The Global Economic Crisis and Asian Developing Countries:
Impact, Policy Response and Medium-term Prospects, TWN Global Economy Series.
Yung Chul Park (2011): The Global Economic Crisis and Rebalancing Growth in East Asia, ADB Instimte Research Policy Brief 31.
NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHiNH TRj TH^ Giai So 8(196) 2012 -
