THAI DO DOI VOfI RUI RO VA THU N H A P CUA
N 6 N G H O DONG BANG SONG CUtJ LONG
Nguyen Tuan Kiel Khoa Kinh te, Dqi hoc Can Tha
Email: [email protected] Trinh Cong Dijc
Tu vdn ddc lap Email: [email protected]
Doan Phirong Quyen Tu vdn ddc lap Email: [email protected]
Trifffng Thuy Tien Khoa Kinh te, Dqi hoc Cdn Tha
Email, [email protected] Ngay nhiin, 23/12/2019
Ngay nhin ban siia' 07/1/2020 Ngay duyf t dSng: 05/8/2020
Torn tat:
Muc tiiu chinh cua bdi viet Id do ludng thdi do ddi vai nil ro cua ndng hg vd xdc dinh moi quan he giU-a thai dg ddi vai rui ro vd thu nhap ciia ndng hg a Dong bdng Song Ciru Long. Ddy Id nghien ciru tien phong a Viet Nam su dung phuang phdp thi nghiem thuc dia thdng qua viic cdi tien thang do danh muc gid (Multiple price list). Nghien ciru da tien hanh khao sat vd Idm thi nghiem vdi 4 70 ndng ddn. Kit qud phdn tich dir Hiu cho thdy (I) ndng hg cd thdi do so' riii ro rdt cao, vd (2) tim thdy mdi quan hi thuan chiiu giira thdi do doi vai rid ro cua ndng hd vd thu nhap ciia hg.
Tir khoa: Ndng hd, thu nhap, Ddng bang Sdng Cihi Long, thai dd ddi vdi nii ro.
M a J E L : D90, Q U .
Risk attitude and income of farmers in the Mekong River Delta Abstract:
The paper, amongst the firsts, is to measure the risk attitude of farmers and to investigate the correlation between the attitude to risk and income of the farmers in the Mekong River Delta.
Attitude to the risk of 470 farmers is measured by a modified multiple price list (MPLJ. The results show that (i) farmers are highly averse to risk, and (ii) the risk attitude is positively correlated with the income of the farmers.
Keywords: Farmer, income, Mekong Delta, risk attitude.
JEL Codes: D90, Q12.
I. Gidi thieu
Nghien eim dugc thyc hien vdi muc tieu chinh la do ludng thai do ddi vdi nii ro va kiem cbirng moi quan he giiia thai dg ddi vdi nii ro va thu nhap ciia hd san xuat ndng nghiep d Ddng bang Sdng C\m Long.
Nghien ciiu dugc tiep can bang phuang phap thi nghiem thyc dia do ludng thai do ddi vdi rui ro cua ndng bg bang thang do danh muc gia (MPL), Thang do MPL, tir nam 1980, da dugc mdt sd nha kinh te hgc ung dung nghien ciiu ngoai thyc dia do lucmg thai dd ddi vdi rui ro cua cac ca nhan, dac biet la ddi tugng de ton bi thucmg, khu vyc cgng ddng gap rui ro cao, ndng thdn (Binswanger. 1981; Mumigban & cgng sy, 1988:
Gonzalez & Wu, 1999; Holt & Laury, 2002. 2005; Eckel & Grossman, 2003; Harrison & cdng sy. 2005.
2007; Andersen & cgng su, 2006). Gan day, MPL dugc van dung nghien eim a nhieu khu vuc ndng thdn S6 279 thdng 9/2020 65 kJnll ll'J'llill li'it'n
khac nhau nhu: Brick & cgng sy (2012), Reynaud & Coubue (2012), Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) va Chamess
& Viceisza (2016). Cac kit qua cho thiy ndng hg cd thai do sg nii ro, dac biet la yong frudng hgp gia "i phan thudng cao. Thai dg ddi vdi nii ro cung thay ddi theo bdi canh khac nhau va dac dilm ca nhan nhu gidi tinh, bidi, dan tdc, hgc vin (Mulmo & cgng sy, 2006; Bobi & cdng sy, 2007), dac dilm kinh tl giau, ngheo va CO chi phap luat (Balbissen & cgng sy, 2008).
Sii dung MPL do ludng thai do ddi vdi nii ro la mgt each tilp can dan gian dd bill dugc cac gia di ky vgng ma mdt ddi tugng dua ra quylt dinh lya chgn "nhi phan" bi mgt danh muc gia di tiln thudng thuc te ho|c gia dinb. LTU dilm ciia MPL la dan gian, dl thyc hien va ddi tugng cung dl nhan thiy dugc Igi ich tdt nhat cua hg yong mdi muc gia tri lya chgn (Andersen & cgng sy, 2006), Nhung ban chi cua MPL la hi?u iing khung do sii dung cac gia bi bien d bai diu cua bang danh muc gia, nen doi tugng tham gia tin rang day la gidi han tren va dudi hgp ly, do do cd xu hudng chuyen tir lya chgn an toan sang may nii tai diem trung binh ciia gia tri tien thudng; va ddi tugng tham gia cd xu hudng lua chgn khdng nhit quan trong bang danh muc gia nen ket qua sai lech. Do dd, bai viet nay da khic phuc bing viec chuyen ddi lien die thii dJ cac lya chgn MPL, do phan thudng ky vgng trung binh dang tin cay se tao dgng lye cho lua chgn phii hgp vdi sd thich thyc cua ngudi choi.
Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long la khu vyc dugc chgn thyc hien thi nghiem bdi vi: khu vyc bj tdn thuomg cao do anh hudng cua bao, lu lut va nude bien xam nhap, dien tich ndng nghiep ciia ddng bang se bi tdn that nang ne (World Bank, 2010). Dieu nay gay thiet hai dang ke den san xuit ndng nghi?p va sinh ke cua ngudi dan yong viing (Tuan & Dung, 2015; Tri, 2016). Cac tinh/thanh cd biln tai Ddng bing Sdng Cuu Long diu bi anh hudng bdi nii ro bi ngap va xam nhap man (Tran, 2013; Diep, 2015; Thai Minh Tin & cgng sy, 2018).
Nganh ndng nghiep ciia viing dang ddi mat vdi nhieu khd khan Idn tir bien ddi khi hau nhu nhiet do thay ddi, mua bao thit thudng, yieu cudng va xam nhap man, ddng chay thugng ngudn sdng Me-kdng bi thieu hut (Vd Van Tuin & cdng sy, 2014; Chinh phii, 2017).
Rui ro v6 thdi tilt, sau dich benh, va kinh te ciing da anh hudng tieu cue den thu nhap ndng hd (Nguyen Tuin Kiet & Nguyln Tin Phat, 2019; Nguyln Tuin Kiet & cgng sy, 2020). Ngoai ra, vin de riii ro ve bien ddi khi hau ciing anh hudng den tinh yang di cu va tai dinh cu cua cgng ddng dan cu tai cac tinh Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long (United Nations, 2014). Chun & Le (2012) cho thay ap lye mdi trudng cd nhieu tac ddng den sinh ke va la nguyen nhan chinh trong viec day ddng di cu d ndng thdn den cac viing phat yien tdt han.
Cac nghien ciiu da cho thay van de nii ro ve bien ddi khi hau da dang de dga nghiem trgng den san xuat, va ddi sdng xa hdi cua ngudi dan trong viing.
Tuy nhien, cd kha it bang chiing thyc nghiem ve thai do ddi vdi riii ro cua ngudi dan trong bdi canh bien ddi khi hau tai Ddng bang Sdng Cuu Long. Qua luge khao, bai viet tim dugc hai tai lieu quan tam ve thai dg ddi vdi nii ro cua ndng hg: Le & cdng su (2014) sir dung ly thuyet ddng Iyc bao ve giai thich kha nang iing phd riii ro bien ddi khi hau ciia ndng hg va Tanaka & cdng su (2010) sir dung ty thuyet trien vgng do ludng thai do doi vdi riii ro ciia hd ngheo Ddng bang Sdng Cuu Long va Sdng Hong. Tuy nhien, ca hai ket qua nay chua de cap den mdi quan be giira thai do ddi vdi rui ro va thu nhap ciia ndng hg. Vi vay, bai viet nay khao sat 470 ndng hd tai 6 tinh Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long de kiem chiing mdi quan he nay.
Bai viit da ddng gdp vao ly thuyet quyet dinh trong trudng hgp cd rui ro dd la: thai do sg nii ro cua ndng hd cd mdi tuang quan ciing chieu vdi thu nhap, tam ly sg riii ro da mang lai nhirng Igi ich tich cue cho ndng hd. Bai viit cung dua ra du doan rang: khi ndng hd ddi mat vdi nii ro hoac nhan dien nhung nii ro tiem nang cd thd anh hudng bat Igi den sinh ke va boat ddng san xuat tbi hg se phan ling lai bang nhirng hanh vi chu ddng thyc hien phdng ngira va ting phd nii ro de giam thieu tdn that hoac mat mat cho kinh te ciia hd. Dieu nay kha phii hgp vdi bang chimg thyc nghiem gan day cua Nguyln Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tuan Phat (2019) va Nguyen Tuan Kiet & cdng su (2020). Nhu vay, thai do ddi vdi rin ro cua ndng bg ddng gdp mgt vai trd quan trgng trong nhiing quyet dinh ve san xuat - kinh te hd, nhat la, su lya chgn chien luge phdng ngira va ling phd vdi nii ro.
Phin cdn lai bai viet dugc chia 3 phin: phin 2 trinh bay phucmg phap thi nghi?m thuc dia va mo hinh dinh lugng; phan 3 trinh bay ket qua nghien ciiu dat dugc va phan cudi la ket luan va dua ra mdt vai ham y.
2. Phu-oTig phap nghien cuu
Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 66 kinhli'j'lialtrji'ij
2.1. Thiet ke thi nghiem thuc dia
Phuong phap do ludng thai do ddi vdi nii ro bing MPL dugc dilu chinh bdi Reynaud & Coudire (2012), Brick & cgng sy (2012) va Jianjun & cdng sy (2015). Trong nghien ciru nay MPL dugc thilt kl brong di nhung cd dilu chinh d l phii hgp vdi doi digng ndng dan d khu vyc nghien cuu, ndi dung thi nghiem nhu sau:
De khac phyc su lya chgn khdng nhat quan (chuyin ddi qua lai giua cac phuong an khi chuyin sang cac ddng lya chgn kl tilp) va hieu img khung (xu hudng chuyen ddi lya chgn tai gia \n trung binh), chung tdi khdng de ngudi choi dj diln vao phieu tra loi, thay vao dd, bd di 01 phdng vin vien phdng vin yyc tilp 01 ngudi cboi_, va hdi tuin dr cho mdi phuong an lua chgn, nlu ngudi lya cbgn khdng nhat quan thi phdng van vien se nhic nhd. Ddng thdi, chung tdi sir dung menh gia 100.000 Viet Nam ddng (VND) cho miic gia bi cao nhat va 10.000 VND cho miic gia tri thip nhit (ngudi choi nhan dugc), chiing tdi thilt kl 8 miic do lua chgn tra idi thay vi 10 miic do lya chgn (nhu Holt & Laury, 2002), va dilm chuyin ddi giira Lya chgn 1 va 2 chenh lech 30.000 VND (0) dilu nay da khic phuc dugc diem ban chi cua phuong phap MPL.
Lua chgn A la lya cbgn chac chan (khdng nii ro);
Lua chgn B la lya chgn nii ro;
Bang 1 cho biet 8 phuong an ra quyet dinh lya chgn giiia A va B;
Ngudi hudng dan la phdng van vien da dugc tap huan nim rd phuang phap MPL;
Ngudi tra Idi la chii hg hoac ngudi true bip san xuat cda bg. Trong phin trinh bay kit qua thi nghiem chiing tdi cdn ggi la "ngudi chai" hoac "ngudi tham gia".
- Trudc kbi tien hanh yd choi, cac phdng van vien phdng van cac chii bd ve dac diem ca nhan, kinh te hd gia dinh, cac mdi quan he xa hdi va nhirng nii ro thudng gap.
- Thi nghiem dugc thuc hien qua hai giai doan nhu sau:
Giai doan I: Qo luang thai do rui ro
Ngudi hudng dan gioi thidu cu the hinh thiic tham gia thi nghiem va Igi ich ma ngudi tham gia cd the nhan dugc tir phuang an lya cbgn A hoac B. Trong 8 phuong an lua chgn dugc thiet ke theo mdt danh sach gia tri tien thudng giam din tir 100,000 VND din 10.000 VND. NIU cbgn A, ngudi choi chac chan nhan dugc gia yi tiln thudng tuong iing vdi lya chgn, Neu chgn B, ngudi choi se tien hanh tung ddng xu vdi xac suit la 50% nhan 100.000 VND va 50% la 0 ddng. Sau khi ngudi choi hieu ro luat choi thi bg se dugc phdng van
Bang 1: Phuo-ng an lua chgn trong thi nghiem Lya
chon^"^
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Lya chgn A Chan chan duae
100.000 ddng Chan chan dugc
_70.000ddng_
Chan chan dugc 60.000 ddng Chan chan dugc
50,000 doiig Chan chan dugc
40.000 ddng Chan chan duae
30.000 ddng Chan chan dugc
20,000 ddng Chan chan duoc
10.000 ddng
Lua chpn B Dugc 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien.
Duae 0 ddng neu mat chii xuat hien.
Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien.
Duae 0 ddng neu mat chir xuat hien.
Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien.
Duoc 0 ddng neu mat chii xuat hien.
Duae 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien.
Duae 0 ddng neu mat chii xuat hien.
Dugc 100.000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hien.
Duoc 0 ddne neu mat chir xuat hien.
Dugc 100.000 ddng nlu mat hinh xuit bien.
Duoc 0 ddng neu mat chii xuat hien.
Dugc 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat hi?n.
Duae 0 ddng neu mat chii: xuat bien.
Duae 100,000 ddng neu mat hinh xuat bien.
Duae 0 ddng nlu mat chii xuat hien.
Ket qua chpn n A n A H B H B H A
nA nB nA n s nA n s nA n a nB nA nB
Ghi chii:'"' thir lu ndy duae thay ddi giira cdc ddp vien di kiem sodt cho hieu ung thir lu (Order effect}
IY; hieu irng khung (Framing effect).
Ngudn. Nhom nghien cuu thiil ke ndm 2018.
Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 67 killll 1(^*1)111 Iril'fl
\ ien hdi lan lugt 8 phuong an lua chon dk dua ra 8 quvit dinh chon A hoac chon B teong philu d^ Idi nhu Bang 1.
Xguori choi dugc yeu cau ra quyet dinh man tu cho mdi phuang an lya chgn va quyet dinh cua nguoi chcn phai nhat quan cho den phuong an lya chgn chuydn di "an toan" sang "mao hilm ". Vi du mgt ngudi choi cd quyet dinh nhu sau: chgn .A. cho cac Lua chgn I din 3. tai Lua chgn 4 gia di tien thudng la chan chan dugc 50.000 VND neu chgn A va 50 '50 nhan dugc 100.000 \ N D neu chgn B, ngudi choi quylt dinh chgn B. Vi vay di Lua chgn 4 den 8, ngudi choi chgn lya chgn B.
Giai doan 2: Xac dinh gia tri tien thudng ngudi chai nhgn duae
Sau khi tra Idi xong 8 phuong an, ngudi choi se bdc ngau nhien mgt la tham dugc danh so tbii ty tu 1 den 8, mdi la tham dai dien tuong iing \m 8 phucmg an lya chgn d giai doan 1. Tuy vao ket qua bdc tham, ngudi choi se dugc tra tucmg iing vdi phucmg an da chgn. Vi du: neu ngudi choi bdc dugc la tham sd 3 va ket qua giai doan 1 tai Lya chgn 3 la chgn A tbi ngudi chai se nhan dugc 60.000 \'ND. Ngugc lai. neu nguoi choi chgn B cho Lya chgn 3 thi nguoi chai se thyc hien tung ddng xu de xac dinh gia tri tien thudng. Neu mat Hinh xuat hien, ngudi choi nhan dugc 100.000 VND, neu mat Chir xuat hien ngudi chcri khdng cd tien thudng di trd choi. Ngoai ra, chiing tdi da hd yg 40.000 X'ND ngudi chai de bu dap thdi gian hg da den tham gia thi nghiem va cung cap thdng tin.
2.2. Phuang phdp thu thap dir lieu
Nghien ciiu khao sat ngau nhien 480 ndng dan tai 6 tinh bi anh hudng bdi \ an de nii ro ve bien ddi kbi hau gdm: An Giang, Ben Tre. Can Tho. Long An, Kien Giang, Sdc Trang. Mdi tinh chgn ngau nhien 2 huy?n, mdi huyen chgn ngau nhien 2 xa va mdi xa chgn ngau nhien 20 ndng dan cd thu nhap chinh tir san xuat ndng nghiep (7 hd ydng lua, 6 bg nudi thuy san \ a 7 hd trdng \irdn). Cdng cu thu thap sd lieu la bang cau hdi cau tnic dugc thiet ke san, ndi dung thu sd lieu gdm Phan 1 la thdng tin dac diem chii hd va hd gia dinh, tinh hinh sii dung dat san xuat, tai san sii dung ben lau. boat ddng ndng nghiep, nii ro trong san xuat va mdi quan he xa hgi. Phin 2 la ndi dung thi nghiem ciing dugc thu bang bang cau bdi da thiet ke sin. Sau sang lgc, 470 quan sat da dugc sir dung cho phan tich.
2.3. Phuang phdp phdn tich
Ham thu nhap dugc phat trien dau tien bdi Mincer (1974). Ham thu nhap Mincer the hien mdi quan he giiia thu nhap va giao due, vdi gia thiet bd qua yeu td kinh nghiem. Md hinh cd dang Logarit nhu sau:
lnY^ = lnY+r*S (I)
Trona dd, S: sd nam di hgc; T,,: thu nhap hang nam cua nguoi khdng di hgc; Y: thu nhap hang nam ciia ngucri cd di hgc S nam; r la Igi suat bien. Ham thu nhap cua Mincer dugc xem la ham ly thuyet co ban de phat trien nghien ciiu \ e cac \ eu td anh hudng den thu nhap.
Trons cac tai lieu nghien cuu thyc nghiem d cap do ndng hg da xac dinh dugc nhieu yeu td anh hudng Bang 2: torn tat bien doc lap va dau ky vgng
Bien ddc lap Gidi tinh chii hd Kinh nghiem Hoc van chii hd Dien tich Tai san
\ ! d i quan he \ a hdi Khuven n d n e Sd lan sap nii ro Khuxorc Mo hinh lua Thai do sa nii ro Ngudn. .\lioni nghien ciiu
S6 2-9 thdng 9/2020
Dien giai 1 = Nam: 0 = Nii Sd nam hoat d d n g ndng nghiep Sd nam di hgc
Dien tich dat san xuat (m")
Tdng gia Ui tai san hien cd cua hg^lOOO ddng) I = Chii hd quen biet \ di can bd dia phuong;
0 = K h d n ^
1 = Hd tham gia khuyen none: 0 = Khdna Sd lan gap nii ro u o n g 1 nam I = Nam sdng Hau: 0 - Bac sdng Hau;
1 = Md hinh san xuat liia: 0 = Khac
So lan chpn .A trong S p h u a n g an quyet dinh tir ihi nuhiem MPL
thiet ke ndm 20h\
bS
Ky vong + +
[
-^
-(-
+
kliblrj'hiiiirjefl
Bien quan sat Giai tinli Khuyen nong Moi quan lie xa lioi Khu vuc cu tru Mo hinh san xuat TonR
Bang 3: Thong ke cac Nam chii ho
Nu chu ho Tham gia Idiuyen none Khong tham gia Idiuyen nong Co moi quan he xa hoi Khon^co moi quan he xa hoi Phia Bac song Hau Phia Nam song Hau Mo hinh Ilia Khac
bien djnh tinh Soluong
430 40 343 127 254 216 240 230 322 148 470
Ty le (%) 91,5
8,5 73,0 27,0 54,0 46,0 51,1 48,9 68,5 31,5 100 Nguon • So li^u khao sdt nong hg ndm 2018
den thu nhap ndng hg. Dinh Phi Hd (2003) cho thiy cac ylu td anh hudng din thu nhap gdm: nang suit, dien tich dat, chi phi san xuit, kien thiic ndng nghiep. Nguyln Qudc Nghi & Biii Van Trinh (2011) cho thiy cac yeu td anh hudng den thu nhap: hoc van chu hd, sd lao ddng hd, tiep can chinh sach, do tudi lao ddng tnmg binbciiahg. Mai Van Nam & Dinh Cdng Thanh (2011) cho thiy cac yeu to anb hudng din thu nhap: sd lao dgng, vdn luu dgng, boat dgng san xuat Le Xuan Thai (2014) cho thay cac yeu Id anh hudng den thu nhap:
sd thanh vien, dien tich dat, tham gia td chiic dja phuong, chi phi san xuat. Nguyen Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tan Phat (2019) cho thay cac yeu td anh hudng den thu nhap gdm: hgc van chii hd, iing phd nii ro, mdhinh san xuat, kinh nghiem san xuat.
Dua vao co sd thuc nghiem tren, bai viet xay dyng mdt md hinh kmh te lugng ca ban dudi d^ing hdi quy da bien de kiem cbii'ng mdi quan he giiia thai do ddi vdi nii ro va thu nhap cua ndng bg nhu sau
Thu nhap =^,j + P *Giai tinh + 0^*Kinh nghiem + ^^*Hgc vdn + fl^*Dien tich + P^*Tdisdn ^ fl^Quan h^xdhgi + p^* Khuyen ndng + p^*Ruiro + ^^*Khu vuc + ^^y*Md hinh lua + ^ij*Thdi do sa rui ro + e^ (2) Trong do: Thu nhap la bien phu thudc, duoc tinh di thu nhap do san xuat ndng nghiep cua hd, Thu nhap ciia cac hd khac nhau va cd sy bien dgng nen trong dnh toan bien Thu nhap lay Logarit ty nhien dc giam su biln dgng giira cac quan sat, ^^. he sd chan, p^(l, 2, 3, . , 11) la cac he sd hdi quy,e^: sai sd do ludng. Cac bien ddc lap dugc trinh bay d Bang 2.
3. Ket qua nghien cmi
3.1. Md td thdng ke cdc bien trong mau khao sdt
Sd lieu d Bang 3 cho biet 470 ndng hd dugc khao sat, cbii hd la nam gidi chiem 91,5% trong khi chu hd la nii chi cbilm 8,5%. Tham gia khuyin ndng ciia chu hg: ty le tham gia chiem 73% va 27% khdng tham gia, dilu nay cho thiy da so ndng bg cd tham gia chuang trinh hoac cac cugc hgp khuyen ndng tai dia phucmg, viec tham gia boat ddng nay se giiip ich cho ndng hg trong viec nam bat ky thuat san xuat mdi de giup hg cai thien chit lugng san xuit va nang cao thu nhap. Mdi quan he xa hdi cd 54% ndng hd quen bilt va 46"{i ndng hg la khdng cd quen bilt can bd dia phuong, Khu vyc khao sat ndng hg chia lam 2 khu vyc, trong do khu vyc Bic sdng Hau chilm ty le 51% va Nam sdng Hau 49%. Ndng bd trdng lua cbilm 68,5% va san xuit md hinh khac chiem 31,5%.
So lieu d Bang 4 cho thiy Hoc vdn chu hg tucmg doi thap, drong duong Idp 7. Kinh nghiem trong canh tac ndng nghiep kha cao, bung binh la 33 nam, sd nam kinh nghiem nhilu cd the se gdp phin tich eye din viec phdng ngira, irng phd nii ro, nang cao thu nhap cho ndng hd. Gia tri Tdi sdn dimg binh ciia hd la 40.677 ngan ddng. Dien tich san xuit dit trung binh la 22,764 m-, tuong ddi cao, Thu nhap trung binh klioang 290,000 ngan dong/nam, Trong nam 2017 sd lin gap riii ro trung binh 4 lin/nam (thien tai, ban ban, lu lyt, sau dich b?nh, gia ca ndng san biln dgng giam, gia phan thudc bien dgng tang). Sd lya chgn an toan yung binh ciia ndng hd di thi nghigm MPL la 5.21 dilu nay cho thiy ndng bd cd thai do sg nii ro cao.
3.2. Ket qud thi nghiem thuc dia
Sd lieu d Bang 5 cho bilt kit qua thi nghiem thyc dia bing phuang phap MPL. Ty 1? lya cbgn A (an toan)
S6 279 thdng 9/2020 69 kiilt'AHrleii
Bang 4: Thong ke cac bien djnh lumig
Bien quan sat Don vi tinh Tmng binh Dp lech chuan Trinh dp hgc van chu ho
Kinh nghiem san xuat nong So riii ro gap trong nam Thai do sg rui ro Gia tn tai san cua ho Tong dien tich dat san xuat Thu nhap ciia nong ho
nghiep
Nam Nam So lan So lan chon A
1000 dong m- 1000 dong/ho/nam
7,07 32,83 3,83 5.21 40.677 22.764 289 971
0.16 0,53 0,09 0,13 3 822
1.160 39 139 Ngudn: So lieu khdo sdt nong hg ndm 2018.
va lya chgn B (mao hiem) nhu sau cd 1,1% sd ngudi choi chgn B cho ca 8 phuong an, day la nhdm nguoi chai ludn ludn mudn tbu van may mac dii bg da hieu dugc luat cua yd chai, do do, cac quan sat nay se bi loai ra khi thyc hien phan tich hdi quy
Ket qua tiep theo, cd 42,8%) so ngudi tham gia chgn tit ca 8 phuang an A (chac chan nhan dugc I sd tien thudng nhat dinh cho mdi phuang an lua chgn) ma khdng thay ddi quyet dinh chuyen sang lya cbgn B cho mdi mire gia tri phan thudng thap hem. Dieu nay cho thay miic dd ky vgng gia tri tien thudng d quyet dmh mao hiem (B) ciia ngudi choi thap ban miic do ky vgng lua chgn an toan (A) mang lai, nghTa la ndng hd co thai do cue ky sg rui ro,
Nhu vay, ket qua thi nghiem tai Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long cho thay ndng dan cd thai do cue ky sg rui ro.
Kit luan nay drong dj vdi Reynaud & Coumre (2012). Bnck & cdng sy (2012) va Jianjun & cdng sy (2015).
Tuy nhien, so vdi kit qua ciia Jianjun & cdng sy (2015) cho thay: ndng hd tai Yongqiao Trung Qudc cd thai do bang quan riii ro kha cao (38,5%) so vdi ndng bd Dong bang Sdng Cim Long (15,7%); thai dd sg nii ro ciia ndng bd (44%) lai thip bon ndng hg Ddng bing Sdng Ciiu Long (54.9%). Xu hudng thai do sg nii ro cua ndng dan Ddng bang Sdng Cim Long cao ban so vdi ndng dan d Yongqiao Trung Qudc.
3.3. Mdi quan he giira thdi do ddi vai rui ro vd thu nhap ndng hg
Kit qua d Bang 6 cho thay md hinh nghien ciiu cd y nghia ve mat thdng ke (p = 0,000, F = 53,30), R- = 0,561, he sd da cdng tuyin (VIF) cua cac biln ddc lap < 2, he sd ty drong quan Durbin- Watson = 1,5 < 1,596 < 2,5 cho thiy md binh ude lugng khdng cd hien brgng dr tuong quan va da cdng tuyln. Kit qua kilm dmh phuang sai sai sd thay ddi cho thay phan du ciia bien phu thudc khdng cd y nghia thdng ke vdi cac biln giai thich d miic y nghia 5%.
Kit qua cho thiy Thdi do sa rid ro cua ndng hd tuong quan thuan chieu vdi thu nhap ciia hg va cd y nghTa thong ke (he sd 0,257 vdi p < 0,01). Dilu nay cho thiy cac quyet dinh lua chgn an toan cua ndng hg se cd tac ddng tich eye din thu nhap. Kit qua nay cung cap bang chimg ro rang ban ve moi quan be tich cue giira thai do doi vdi riii ro va thu nhap ciia ndng hd so vdi ket qua ciia Tanaka & cdng sy (2010). Lien he thuc tien, chiing tdi thiy ring tam ly sg riii ro cua ndng hd da mang lai nhiing Igi ich tich eye cho hg. Khi ndng
Bang 5: Ket qua thi nghiem thuc dja MPL phuong an
Lua chon 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Diem chuyen doi A sang B Luon chon B
1
3 4 5 6 7 s Luon chon A
Tan so 5 84 21 28 74 26 13 18 201
Tyle(%) 1,1 17,9 4,5 6,0 15,7 5,5 2,8 3.8 42,8
Phan loai thai do rui ro Cue ky thich rui ro
-
Rat thich nii ro Thich nii ro Bang quan voi nii ro
So nii ro thap So nii ro cao So nii ro riii cao So nii ro cue k\
Ngiioii: sS lieu khao sal nong ho nam 20IS.
si 279 thing 9/2020 70
ttinhlrJ'liaiiriei
Bang 6:
Bien doc lap Hang so
Gioi tinh Hgc van Dien tich dat Kinh nghiem Quan he xa hpi Khuyen nong Tai siin Mo hinh lua Khu virc Thai do sg nii ro So riii ro gap trong san xuat He so R'
He so R^ hieu chinh Gia tn F (sig. < 0,01) Kiem dinh da cgng tuyen (VIF) So quan sat (N)
Ket qua ytVc Itrong hdi quy He so hoi quy
7,608 0,465 0,600 0,021 0,235 1,287 0,327 0,054 0,050 0,156 0,257 -0,382
Sal so chuan 0,632 0,172 0,082 0,035 0,120 0,102 0,111 0,023 0,103 0,099 0,063 0,080
Gia tri p 0,000 0,007 0,000 0,552 0,051 0,000 0,003 0,019 0,630 0,118 0,000 0,000 0,561 0,551 53,30
<2 470 Ghi chii: Phuang phdp ude lugng binh phuang nho nhdt (OLS). Mo hinh khong xdy ra hien tucmg Heteroscedasticity.
Nguon. So lieu khdo sdt nong hg ndm 2018.
hd gap nii ro hoac nhan dien nhumg nii ro tiem nang cd the anh hudng bat Igi den sinh ke va trong boat ddng san xuat thi hg se cd nhiing hanh vi chii dgng thyc hien phdng ngira va Omg phd vdi nii ro de giam thieu tdn that ho|c mat mat cho kinh te ciia hg Da cd bSng cbiing cho thay ndng hg cbii dgng iing phd riii ro yong boat dgng san xuat ndng nghiep cd tac ddng tich cue den thu nhap (Nguyen Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tan Phat, 2019). Thai do sg riii ro cua ndng hg ciing cd anb hudng den quyet djnh lya chgn chien luge irng phd riii ro (chang ban: thay ddi cay trdng mdi, iing dung ky thuat mdi va mua bao hiem ndng nghiep) trong ket qua cua Jianjun & cgng sy (2015). Nhu vay, thai do ddi vdi rin ro ciia ndng bd ddng gdp mgt vai trd quan trgng trong nhiing quyet dinh san xuat ndng nghiep (Jianjun & cgng su, 2015).
i'd ™//o tac ddng tieu eye den thu nhap ndng hg (be sd-0,382 vdi p<0,Ol). Dieu nay cho thay cac nii ro da lam giam dang ke thu nhap ciia hg. Sd lieu thuc tiln cho thay yong qua yinh san xuat nong bg gap phai 3 nhdm rui ro la: thdi tiet (49,7%), sau dich benb (69,4%) va kinh te (78,6%)). Trong tdng sd nhirng ndng hg cd gIp phai nil ro, cd 54%i ndng bg sir dung cac bien phap iing phd khi gap riii ro tbdi tiet, 62,6% ndng hd ling phd vdi nii ro kinh te va sau dich benb la 89,3%o. Cac bien phap dugc ndng hg sii dung img phd nhu:
quan ly ngudn nude, giam chi tieu, thudc bao ve thyc vat, vay ngan hang, lao ddng them va mdt sd bien phap khac, Ket qua nay cimg pbii hgp vdi Nguyln Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tan Phat (2019), Nguyen Tuan Kiet &
cgng su (2020).
Ngoai ra, kit qua cung cho thay cac bien kiem soat gdm: gidi tinh, hgc van, mdi quan he xa hgi, khuyen ndng, tai san, kinh nghiem cd tuong quan thuan vdi thu nhap va cd y nghTa thdng ke d miic 1%, 5% va 10%.
Do dd, cac chinh sach hd trg cho ndng hd Ddng bang Sdng Cuu Long can dugc cbii y den tac ddng ciia nhiing yeu td nay de dugc hieu qua tdt bon.
4. Ket luan
Kit qua nghien ciiu da cho thiy ring ndng hd cd thai do eye ky sg nii ro. Ndng hg cd thai do sg nii ro chiem 54,9%, bang quan riii ro chilm 15,7% va 28,4% tim kiem nii ro. Ket luan nay tuong tu vdi Reynaud
& Coudire (2012), Brick & cgng sy (2012) va Jianjun & cgng sy (2015) nhung ndng hd Ddng bang Sdng Ciiu Long cd xu hudng sg nii ro hon. Kdt qua cung cho thay yong qua trinh san xuat ndng hd gap phai 3 nhdm riii ro dd la: riii ro vl thdi tilt chilm 49.7%, sau dich benb chiem 69,4% va kinh te chiem 78,6%, Ndng hg da ap dung cac chien luge img phd ddi vdi timg nhdm riii ro nhu: quan ly ngudn nude, giam cbi tieu, sir dung thuoc bao ve thyc vat, vay ngan bang, lao dgng them va mgt sd chien luge khac. Dieu nay the hien \u hudng hanh vi la nong hd cd thai do tich cue ddi vdi lya chgn iing phd vdi rui ro, tire la khi nii ro xay ra ndng S6 279 thdng 9/2020 71 kJllll tlU'lial IriPfl
hp se lya chgn iing phd vdi nii ro (thay vi khdng img phd - phd mac) de giam thilu ton thit d mire thip nhit.
Ddng thai, ket qua nghien cim da cung cip them bing chung thyc nghiem mdi dong gdp vao ly thuylt quyet dinh trong trudng hgp co nii ro, dd la: thai do sg nii ro ciia ndng hg cd moi brong quan ciing chidu v di thu nhap, tam ly sg riii ro ciia ndng hg da mang lai nhirng Igi ich tich cue cho hg. Bai viit cung dua ra mdt dy doan rang khi ndng hd ddi mat vdi riii ro hoac nhan dien nhirng nii ro tilm nang cd thi anh hudng bat Igi den sinh kl va boat ddng san xuit thi bg se phan iing lai bing nhiing hanh vi chu ddng thyc hien phdng ngira va img phd ddi vdi riii ro dl giam thilu tdn thit hoac mit mat cho kinh tl cua hd. Thai do ddi vdi nii ro ciia ndng hd ddng gdp mdt vai yd quan trgng yong nhirng quylt dinh san xuit ndng nghiep - kinh te hg, nhat la, hanh vi lya chgn chien luge phdng ngiia va iing phd riii ro yong thuc tiln.
Bai viet ciing de xuat mdt vai ham y tir kit qua nghien ciiu nay. Thii nhit, tam ly sg nii ro ciia ndng hd da tbiic day hg cd nhiing bien phap ung phd nii ro dya yen ca sd kinh nghiem va ngudn luc san cd. Do do, cac CO quan chirc nang dia phuong cin phdi hgp vdi nong dan de dinb hudng va xay dyng chien luge img phd vdi rui ro trong dai ban, dac biet img phd vdi cac riii ro cd tinh chu ky nhu sau dich benh, bien ddng gia ca, thieu lao ddng,... Thii hai, cac dia phuong can phai nang cao vai trd ciia boat dgng khuyen ndng, boat ddng khuyen ndng khdng cbi la kenh chuyen giao ky thuat cdng nghe ma cdn la noi san sang hd trg tu van ky thuat cho ndng dan. Tbii ba, mdi dia phucmg cai thien nang lye dy bao rui ro tren dia ban de cung cap thong tin kip thai den cho ndng dan chii ddng each img phd vdi nii ro phii bop.
Loi cam ffn: Nghien ciru nay duoc tai trg bdi Quy Phat tnen Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Quoc gia (NAFOSTED) trong dl tai ma s6 502.01-2015.23, va bdi Du an Nang cip Trudng Dai hgc Can Tha VN14-P6 bing ngudn vdn vay ODA tir chinli phii Nh|t Ban.
Tai lieu tham khao
Andersen, S., Harrison, G.W,. Lau, M.L & Rutstrom, E.E. (2006), 'Elicitation using muhiple pncc list formats'. Experimental Economics, 9(4), 383-405.
Baltussen, G., Post, T., Thaler, R.H. & Van den Assem, M.J. (2008), 'Deal or no deaP Decision making under risk m a large-payoff game show\ American Economic Review, 98(1), 38-71.
Binswanger, H.P (1981), 'Attitudes toward risk: Theoretical implications of an experiment in mral India', Economic Journal, 9], 867-S90.
Brick, K,, Visser, M. & Bums, J (2012), 'Risk aversion: Experimental evidence from South African fishing comnainitics', American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(1), 133-152.
Botti, P., Conte, A., DiCagno, D, & D'Ippoliti, C. (2007), 'Risk attitudes in real decision problems'. Working Paper, LUISS Guido Carii,
Chamess, G. & Viceisza, A. (2016), 'Three risk-ebcitation Methods in the field: Evidence from rural Senegal', Review of Behavioral Economics, 3, 145-171.
Chinh Phil (2017), Nghi quyet so 120/NQ-CP ve phdt tnen ben vung dong bdng song Ciru Long thich img vai bien doi (tAi Aflw, ban hanh ngay 17 thang II nam 2017.
Chun, J. & Le Thanh Sang (2012), Bdo cao cuoi cung: Nghien cdu vd Doi thoai chinh sdch ve bien dot khi hau, dieu va tdi dinh cu tai Vi^l Nam, United Nations Viet Nam, Ha Ngi.
Diep, N.T.H,, Minh, V.Q., Diem, P.K. & Tao, N.V. (2015), 'Climate change impact assessments for rice cultivation in the coastal area of Mekong Delta based on climate change senarios". Can Tho university Journal of Science.
167-173.
Dinh Phi Hd (2003), 'Anh hudng kien thirc nong nghiep ddi vdi ndng dan san xuat Ida d An Giang*. De tai cap Bg. Dai hgc Kinh tl TPHd Chi Minh.
Eckel, C.C. & Grossman, P.J. (2003), 'Forecasting risk attitudes: An experimental sdidy of actual and forecast risk attitudes of women and men'. Viiginia Tech Deparlmenl of Economics Working Paper. Virginia Tech Department of Economics.
Sd 279 thing 9/2020 72 UnillPj'JIilllrjPn
Gonzalez, R. & Wu, G. (1999), ' O n the shape of the probability weighting function'. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 129- 166.
Harrison, G.W., Johnson, E., Mclnnes, M.M. & Rutstrom, E.E. (2005), 'Risk aversion and incentive effects: Comment', American Economic Review, 95(3), 897-901,
Han-ison, G.W,, Lau, M,I., & Rutstrom, E.E. (2007), 'Estimating risk attitudes in Denmark: A field experiment', Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109(2), 341-368,
Holt, C A . , & Laury, S,K. (2002), 'Risk aversion and incentive effects', American economic review, 92(5), 1644-1655.
Holt, C A. & Laury, S.K. (2005), 'Risk aversion and incentive effects. New data without order effects', American Economic Review, 95, 902-912.
Jianjun, J , Yiwei, G., Xiaomin, W, & Nam, P.K (2015), 'Farmers' risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao Distnct, China', Land Use Policy, 47, 365-372.
Le, D.H., Li, E., Nuberg, I. & Bruwer, J. (2014), 'Farmers' assessments of private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: A sttidy in the Mekong Delta, Viemam', Natural hazards, 71(1), 385-401.
Le Xuan Thai (2014), 'Cac y l u td anh hudng thu nhap ciia nong hg trong cac mo hinh san xuit Uen d i t liia tai tinh VTnh Long', Tgp cht Khoa hgc Tru&ngDai hgc Cdn Tha, 35, 79-86,
Mai Van Nam & Dinh Cong Thanh (2011), 'Ket qua hoat dgng san xuit kinh doanh ciia cac lang nghi d tinh Bac Lieu', Tifp chiKhoa hgc Trudng Dm hgc Cdn Tha, I8a, 298-306.
Mincer, J, (1974), Schooling, experience, and earnings (Human Behavior £ Social Institutions No. 2), P' Edition, Natonal Bureau of Economic Research.
Mulino, D., Scheelings, R., Brooks, R. & Faff, R, (2006), 'Is a dollar in the hand worth two in a lottery? Risk aversion and prospect theory in deal or no deal'. Working Paper, Monash University.
Mumighan, K.J , Roth, A.E. & Shoumaker, F, (1988), 'Risk aversion in bargaining. An experimental study'. Journal of Risk and Uncertainly, 1(1), 101-124.
Nguyen Qudc Nghi & Biii Van Trmh (2011), 'Cac yeu td anh hudng den thu nhap ciia ngudi dan tgc thieu sd d dong bang song Ciiu Long', Tap chi Khoa hoc Tnrang Dgi hgc Can Tha, ISa, 240-250.
Nguyen Tuan Kiet & Nguyen Tan Phat (2019), 'IJng phd ciia nong dan doi vdi nii ro trong san xuat ndng nghiep tai thanh phd Can Tha', Tgp chi Khoa hoc Trudng Dai hgc Cdn Tha, 55(S6 chuyen d l : Kinh t l ) , 135-147,
Nguyen Tuan Kiet, Trinh Cong Diic & Le Huynh Anh Thu (2020), Chien luge img pho riii w tdc dgng den thu nhap cua nong ho vimg lay song Hau, Tai lieu chua xuat ban da duae sy dong y cua tac gia, Tap chi Nghien cim Kinh te va Kinh doanh Chau A.
Reynaud, A., & Couture, S. (2012), 'Stability of nsk preference measures: results from a field experiment on French farmers', Theory and decision, 73(2), 203-221.
Tanaka, T , Camerer, C.F. & Nguyen, Q. (2010), 'Risk and time preferences: Linking experimental and household survey data from V\etr\ara\ American Economic Review', 100(1), 557-71,
Thai Minh Tin, Vu Van Long, Trin Hdng Diep & Vd Quang Minh (2018). 'LTng dung phan tich da tieu chi trong danh gia anh hudng ciia biln ddi khi hau doi vdi san xuit nong nghiep d cac tinh ven biln Ddng bing sdng Ciru Long, Viet Nam', Tgp chi Khoa hgc Truang Dgi hgc Cdn Tha, 54(36 chuyen d l : Nong nghiep), 202-210.
Tran, H.T. (2013), Studying the impact of climate change on water resource changes in the Mekong Delta, Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate change. Ministry of natural resources and enviroment, Hanoi.
Tri, L.Q. (2016), 'Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Mekong Delta', Vietnam Journal of Science and Technology, 8, 40-42.
Tuan, VV, & Dung, L.C, (2015), 'Driving factors affecting livelihood outcomes of farm households in the Mekong Delta', Can Tho University Journal of Science. 38, 128-129
United Nations (2014), Di cu, tdi dinh cu vd biin doi khi hau tai Viet Nam: Gidm nhe muc dg phai bay tnrdc hiem hga vd tdn thuang tir khi hgu cue doan thong qua di cu tu do vd di ddn theo dinh hudng. Ha Ngi.
Vd Van Tuin, Le Canh Dung, Vo Van Ha & Dang Kilu Nhan (2014), 'Kha nang thich iing ciia ndng dan ddi vdi bien doi khi hau d ddng bing sdng Cuu Long', Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tnrang Dat hgc Cdn Tha, 3i, 63-12.
Worid Bank (2010), 'Economics of adaptation lo climate change: Vietnam'. Worid Bank, Washington DC.
Sd 279 thdng 9/2020 "^3 kJnllKAl IrJl'Il
