Thi trtfcfng xuaft khau gao Viet Nam va yeu to"
Philippines
PHAM QGAING DIEG(iiln day, Philippines la thj trifdng xua't khau gao so' 1 ciia Viet Nam vdi khoang 25^f tdng lufp'ng xuiYt khau, kim ngach xua't khau gao cua nifdc ta sang thi tru'dng nay tang manh. rhe nhifng day hii la thj trifdng dang chuTa di/ng nhieu yeu to' bat thifdng. Do vay, thich dng vdi nhifng thay ddi mang tinh chat bifdc ngoat trong chinh sjich nhap khau gao cua nifdc nay la dieu rat quan trpng.
Philippines dieu chinh chien Iffdc nhap khau gao
Sau bao nhieu tri hoan vii dff dodn \'e nhffng tha\ ddi trong ehinh sach nhiip khau, \ao giffa thang 3/2011. Philippines qudc gia nhap khau gao Idn nha't the gidi - da quay trd lai thj trffdng bang sff md man eiia ed quan Iffdng thffe Philippines (NFA) vdi 200 ngan la'n gao nhap khau iff Viet Nam.
Viet Nam \('(i Philippines da cd mpt ban thda ffdc (MOU) ve eung ffng gao iff Viet Nam hang nam ed the len den 1,5 trieu tan eho Philippines trong trffdng hdp nffdc nay ddi mat vdi mat an ninh Iffdng thffe qudc gia. Khi NFA bj giam quyen, khu vffe tff nhan tham gia manh hdn vd vdi viec che ra cac gdi nhap khau nhd eho moi doanh nghiep tff 2,5 den 20 ngan ta'n da giup Philippines ed dffde sff linh boat trong nhap kha'u tff nhieu ngudn va kha nang thffdng Iffdng gia cd
690 la m3t hang nOng san xua't kh§'u chfnh cua VN
ldi nhal ddi \('<i eae ddi lac xua't khau.
Sff kii}n nhap khau 200 ngan tan gao Viet Nam eiia NFA ehi la bffdc dau trong ke hoaeh nhap khau gao nam 2011 eiia Philippines. Cdc gdi nhap khau tie'p theo len den 660 ngan ta'n se do khu vffe tff nhan dam nhiem. Sif thdnh cdng ban dau cua NFA se giup
Philippines vffng lin tiep luc thffe hicMi ke hoaeh nhap khau mdi eiia minh, nhffng dieu quan trpng bdn Id nd dang phan dnh Philippines quyet tam ddi mdi NFA vd rong hdn nffa Id hinh thdnh tff duy mdi ve an ninh Iffdng thffe qudc gia.
Ngoai ra, Philippines eung hffdng den thodt khdi sff anh hffdng cua Viet Nam khi nffdc
T o n g ffuan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet Nam
122
so 3 (2011) nay dang tien tdi ky thda ffdc
nhdp kha'u gao vdi Thai Lan, dang dam phdn vdi Campuchia, va An Dp (An Dp san Idng eung cap gao pham ca'p tha'p).
Thoat nhin, cd ve nhff nhffng dieu chinh cua Philippines se anh hffdng tieu cffe den xud't kha'u gao eiia Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, di sau vao phan tich thi cam nhan nay chffa hodn toan chinh xdc.
Xuat khau gao Viet Nam se ra sao neu thie'u Philippines?
Mpt sff thay ddi de nhin tha'y nhd't dd Id Iffdng gao Philippines nhap khau nhieu kha nang se giam. Cung ed nhffng lap luan cho rang cd mdt khoang cdch khdng nhd giffa tuyen bd vd thffc te. PhiUppines len ke hoach nhap khiiu 860 ngan tan, nhffng lai cd the se nhap tren 1 trieu tan, vd tham chi nhap khau nhieu hdn the.
Nffdc ndy cung dang hffdng de'n muc tieu tff tue Iffdng thffc vao nam 2013. Tuy nhien, mue lieu nay khd ed the dat dffdc trong vdng vdi nam vi sff djch chuyen tff nhap khau hang nam 1,4 trieu tdn gao sang du kha nang tff tuc Iffdng thffc ddi hdi phai cd nhffng nd life tdng san Iffdng rat Idn vd ngudn Iffc tdi chinh khdng nho. Hdn nffa, ke ca trong trffdng hdp Philippines tff tiic dffdc Iffdng thffc, thi viec duy tri ben vffng thanh tifu ndy cung Id mdt thach thffc khdng de vffdt qua.
Dii theo nhffng kjch ban nhff the ndo thi xu hffdng chung se
f
hilippines nhap kha'u gao iet Nam khdng cdn nhieu a-ffdc day. Dieu quan trpnghdn la hp da tao the chu ddng trong viec lffa chpn nha xuat kha'u bang chinh sdch nhap kha'u mdi, tao dieu kien eho khu^ vffe tff nhdn tham gia nhieu bdn, khoang thdi gian nhap khau ddi trong nam bode khdng bj le thudc qua Idn vao thda thuan vdi Viet Nam... se giup eho Philippines eo ed hpi eao hdn de tim kiem nhieu ngudn nhap kha'u tdi ffu nhd't.
Neu Philippines khdng cdn nhap khau gao Idn nhff nhffng nam trffdc thi xua't kha'u eiia Viet Nam se ra sao?
Nam 2009, Pbihppines chiem gan 30% tdng nhdp khau gao Viet Nam. Nam 2010, mot nam tang xud't khau gao dot bien eua Viet Nam thi thj phan eiia Philippines van chiem 21%.
Neu nam 2011 Philippines nhap kha'u theo nhff ke hoach la 860 ngdn tdn, thi nhap khau tff Viet Nam khd cd the vffdt qud 600 ngdn tdn. Ndm 2011 ed the Id ngdu nhien khi Indonesia va Bangladesh trdm chd, bode cung cd the neu khdng co sff ngau nhien ndy thi cung da cd
cae thj trffdng khac trdm chd, nhffng nhieu kha nang chi vdi ede hdp ddng nhd le hdn la mpt gdi Idn nhff cua Philippines hay Indonesia va Bangladesh.
Neu nam 2012, PhiUppines se ehi nhap kha'u 800 ngdn ta'n trong kbi Indonesia va Bangladesh khdng nhap khiiu manh, thi gao Viet Nam ban eho ai? Gia sff sff sut giam khoang 600 ngan ta'n thi thj trffdng se ra sao? Chac chan rang trong mot bdi eanh khdng CO nhffng dot bien nhff cudi nam 2010 va dau nam 2011 cua nhu eau nhap khiiu eao tff Indonesia va Bangladesh, thi Viet Nam khdng the dieu ehinh nhanh de la'p day chd trdng do Pbihppines de lai. Se ed nhffng xao Iron va sut giam do hieu ffng Philippines gay ra. Nhffng nhieu kha ndng, day se ehi Id nhffng tdc ddng nha't thdi chff khdng phai ddi han.
Thffdng mai gao the' gidi ehi chiem mdt ty trpng rii't nhd trong tdng khd^i Iffdng san xua't nen bat eff mpt sff tdc dpng ndo den san xua't lua gao (dieu md
Bleu 1: CO CAU THj T R U O N G XUAT KHAU GAO CUA VIET NAM NAM 2010
KhJc 25.98%
A n g o l j 2,94%
CcteDlvoi-e (Ivory Coast)
4 7.^% Banglacesi_/
5.05% Taiwan 5.09%
.IValaysia 5.86%
Singapoie 7.8^%
Cuba 6,19%
123 Tong quan
Kinhte Xahoi
Viet Nam
rat di^ xay ra) deu se lam lang vpt nhu eau nhap khau vii gia gao thj trffdng the gic'^i. Y\dn nffa, sau khiing hoiing IffiJng thffe nam 2008, eung nhff trong viii nam gan day, thi Irffdng Iffdng Ihffe Ihe vjd'i limg ndng vii dffde dff hao sc liep lue dien ra xu hffdng nhff \ay irong did han. Trong boi canh iiii>'. \ai Irii ciia Ilia gao cdu dffde nhin nhan khdng ehi nhff mdi hang hda ihong ihffdng. mil thanh mpi hieu Iffdng eiia qii\en Iffc nn'ii diuk \i nhff "mat hang ehinh trj"' hay "diiu md mdi"-.
Do dd. nhin lodn cue. cap do vi mo vd trong ddi luui thi cung kiwng C(S gi phdi qud hi quan khi ihi trUctng cd hay klwng cd sU gc'yp nult ciia Philippines.
Thi trffdng se Iff dieu ehinh, mac dil ed the phai mat mdt khoang thdi gian tff hai ddn ba nam de ede doanh nghiep (DN) thieh nghi \ ii tim kie'm thi trffdng thay the.
CA'U true thi trifc/ng xua't kiiilu gao Vipl Nam lieu cd hi diio Ion?
Ciiu true Ihi Irffdng xual khim gao Vict Nam ed the dffde phan chia ihanh hai khdi.
Khdi ilii'fnhdt e(') diidc in.i thd ve Ihi phan eiing nhff sff ffu lien Irong ehinh sach eua Nha nffdc gdm cd nhffng ihi Irffdng liip trung Idn xuiil khau Iheo hlnh Ihffe hdp ddng Chinh phii, trong do Philippines chiem vi tri dp diio. Khdi thd hai la gdm ral nhieu c;ie thi Irffdng xuiil klu'iu Iheo hinh thffc thff(fng mai.
I Idp ddng Chinh pbii la nhffng g(')i xua'l khau Idn, an loan trong Ihanh loan, ei)n hdp ddng Ihffdng mai nhd li; thi ed dp riii ro eao hi^n, bj ehi phd'i vd chen ep bdi eae lap doan da qudc gia kinh doanh gao lau ddi vd ed mang Iffdi loan eau nhff Louis Dreyfus, Olam International, Phoenix, Golden
Bieu 2: XUAT KHAU GAO VIET NAM SANG PHILIPPINES VA CAC THI T R U O N G C O N LAI TL/ THANG 1/2008-12/2010 (TAN)
l.OCC.JJO
('.IC til) iniajigkJuic iHuhjipuic.--
Grain... Hdp ddng ehinh phii khdng phai la nen tiing cho ehien Iffde phdt trien eua DN trong dai han khi hffdng vao Ihj trffdng pham ca'p tha'p, hoac khdng kich thieh tinh ehii dpng eiia DN. Wdn nffa, trong cd che' hdp ddng chfnh pbii, DN eon nhiin dffde sff hd Ird mpt each trffe liep hay gian tidp Ihdng qua cdc ehinh Siieh nhff lai sual. \dn vay ffu dai hay e;ie can thiep gid siin xua't khfiu.
Sff thay ddi eua Philippines khdng phai khdng dffde dff bao trffdc bdi \i nhffng mam mdng eiia sff thay ddi da bat dau xual hien iff eudi nam 2010, khi nffdc nay e(') Chinh phii mdi len thay. .Nlurng dii sao sff thay ddi eiia Philippines cung da lam cho rat nhieu DN xud't kha'u Viet Nam bj bat ngd.
Ly do la trong nhffng nam qua Philippines la mdt trong nhffng "tru edi" djnh hinh nen eau true thj trffdng xuat khau gao eiia Viet Nam. Tdm ly ehung thi Philippines da lao ncMi mpt dau an trong suy nghi eua DN xua't khiiu gao Viet Nam theo kieu "qud Idn de ma suy sup" "too big to fail"
Nen khi cd sff thay ddi iff phia Philippines si: nhanh ehdng lam eho thj trffdng bj xao iron, anh hffdng den phiin cdn lai va loan bd ket cdu thj trffdng xual kha'u gao ciia Viet Nam.
Mffe dp thay ddi eua kel cau thj trffdng xua't khau gao cua Viet Nam phu Uiupc viio sif thay ddi chinh sdch nhap khau
Quan diem nay diWc giao sif C.Pcicr Timmcr ciia 1 loa Ky nhac den trong moi so lan h()i Ihiio ("< Viel .\am.
- Thual ngiT nay mdi diWc de cap den trt)ng lap thi nof licng ciJa Hoa Ky co ten I'oreign Policy so ra trong thdng|l/2()ll. j
Tong quan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
Viet IVain
124
illlhlllilllnllll
so 3 (2011) cua Pbihppines se didn ra vdi
mffe dp Idn hay nhd va tdc dp nhff the nao? Hoac Pbihppines se thay ddi chinh sdch nhiip khau gao that sff hay ehi la nffa vdi va quay lai vdi ed che eu?
"Chffa CO eau tra ldi eudi eting nhffng d Philippines eung nhff cac nffdc khac khi lien bac khong eon dff da, Cbinh phu mdi mudn ghi diem \'di dan chiing thi phai ehffng minh dffdc hieu quii kinh tc khi ed chinh sach mdi.
Nhffng ca'u true thi trffdng mdi eiia Viet Nam khdng ehi dffng lai d sff tha\ ddi eiia ricMig Pbihppines. Trong dai ban, sff kien nhap khiiu 200 ngiin tan gao eiia NFA, xel ve mat ddi noi, nd da tao nen mdt thang ldi chinh trj cho Chinh phu mdi cua Philippines, \ a dang cham ngdi kien tao nen mdt sff thay ddi cue dien eiia thj trffdng gao chau A, nha't la ddi vdi ket ca'u thj trffdng xua't khau gao eiia Viet Nam.
Tiep sau bieu ffng Pbihppines cd the la den eae thj trffdng tap trung khac nhff Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh hay ke ca Cu Ba se cd nhffng dieu chinh tiep theo? Chac chan cdc qudc gia nay cung dang theo doi sat cae ddng thdi eiia Pbihppines. Hp se so sdnh cdc mffe gid vd cd che nhap kha'u dang dp dung hien bdnh ciia hp vdi Pbihppines. Sd heu xua't khau gao Viet Nam di cdc thj trffdng Indonesia va Bangladesh nhffng thdng dau nam 2011 cho tha'y mffe gid xua't di hai thj trffdng ndy eao hdn so vdi Philippines. Ly do khdc biet gia nay cdn hen quan den thdi diem dam phdn hdp ddng. Cau
hdi ma eae nha nhap khau Indonesia hay Bangladesh eung CO the dat ra la vi sao khdng dam phan vao thdi diem nhff eiia Philippines? Lieu ed nen dp dung cd che mem deo nhff ciia Philippines? Va ed nen lidn hanh ky thda ffdc (MOU) vdi nhieu nffdc xua't khii'u gao...'.'
Nhff vay, khi Philippines ap dung mpt ed che mdi thanh cdng thi ed the trd thanh mpt binh mau eho eae nha nhiip khiiu Idn theo hinh thffe Chinh phu nhff Indonesia hay Bangladesh tiep bffdc. Neu dien bien nhff viiy thi trong tffdng lai eung ed the xual hien
"hieu ffng Domino" ddi vdi eae thj trffdng tap trung eiia Viet Nam.
Sff thay ddi ed che nhap khau eua Pbihppines thj trffdng tap trung noi chung se anh hffdng lan sang ea eae thi trffdng thffdng mai. Ve mat trung ban, sff giam nhap khau se tff thj trffdng tap trung ddng nghia vdi eau nhap khau gao eiia Viet Nam it hdn, trong khi do ve mat eung .se cd nhieu DN trffdc day xua't khiiu sang thj trffdng nay lang cffdng tim
kiem xua't khau sang eae thi trffdng khac dae biet la xua't kha'u thffijng mai. Xu hffdng nay lang sffc ep eanh tranh xua't khii'u giffa eae DN Viet Nam, trong khi d phia eae nha nhap kha'u se ed quyen Iffe mac Cci manh h(^n.
Trong khi do, xet theo khia eanh mdi trirdng eanh tranh, hieu ffng eua Philippines lai mang den nhffng ldi ich quan trpng. Theo mpt chieu sau hdn va dai ban hcfn, tac dpng eiia hieu ffng Philippines khong ehi dien ra ddi vdi ket ca'u thi trffdng xua't khiiu, ma se edn tac dpng ddn ngay ea thi trffdng npi dia. Mot each logic, sff giam di eua eae ddn hiing xua'l khau Idn sang ede thj trffdng tap trung ,se lam eho ed che xuii't khiiu gao ed nhieu kha nang trd nen minh bach hdn, it chju sff can thiep hdn, va nhff vay dd riii ro hdn eho DN xua't khau. Cudi nam 2010 va 2 thang quy 1 nam 2011.
eae hdp ddng Chinh phu Idn sang thj trffdng Indonesia ha\
Bangladesh da tao ra sffc ep trong thdi gian ngan phai eung ffng khdi Iffdng hang Idn. Rat ed the. de dam bao gia nguyen
Biiu 3: LaONG VA GIA GAG Dl CAC THI T R U O N G TAP TRUNG CUA VIET NAM
.•520 5011 4 S I ' 4 M l 4 4 0 4 2 0 4 0 1 ) 3 8 0
( O S D l i i l l )
1
L l t o i i g (
1 H H mmimm, /
i •HK ^ « y
1 1 ' 1 1
Gaol.'iSotam XK (ti Indonesia
(Thang 2)
• ^M'''^
H
Gaol.'5"?otani XK<ti Bangladesh
(Thana 2)
Giio25°ot<ini XK Philippines (Dirkien thana 4
hoac 5)
t:in)
250,000 200,000 1.*! 0.000 100.000 .'50.000
(Lf,SDtan)
Luong (tSn)
125
Tong quan
Kinhte Xahoi
Viet Mam
lieu on dinh va khdng bi sffc ep eanh tranh lir eae hdp ddng ihffting mai, nen ehinh s;ieh gia siin dffde dieu ehinh lien lue de phuc Nil eho e;ie di^n hiing k'<n niiy. Nhff xay, can ihiei^* ehinh sfieli nhff \ ira qua da liim eho thi trffdng \ an hiinh khong iheo qii\ lual eung eiiu nu'a, ldi Ihd ehi thuoe \ e mot so nhii xual khau \iio thi irffdng lap Irung.
"Do dc). Ml' !,'/(//// (li ciKi xudt khau sang thi tndfng lap trung (/f"'//,i,' nghui vc'fi .\if niff rong ciia xudt khau thiUfng mai sc thiic ddy canh tranh trong noi ho ngdnh. giCfci cac DM \iuit khau gao klu'ing chi ihco hu'ihig Midi khau. md ca theo hUc'fng 11:^11011 nguyen lieu ddu vdo. Su canh tranh nd\ cung giiip thiic ddy vj the cua Ccic nhd cung dng nguyen lieu trong cinu')i gid tri lua gcio, trong dc') cd ngUcYi nc'mg ddn
Nhin nhan d ciip dp vT md, sff suy giam iff thj trffdng Philippines khdng phai qua quan ngai ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Nhffng cap dp \i md, DN khong the an lain dd'i vdi sff dn dinh d cap dp \T md \ ii dai ban, ma se cam nhan ra'l nhanh nhffng thay ddi. Tuy nbicMi, sff thay ddi eiia Phillipines se ed nhffng tac ddng ra'l khac nhau den eae nhdm DN khdc nhau, tiiy mffe dp it hay nhieu, trffe tiep hoac gian liep.
Cae DN khdng bj lae ddng bdi thi trffdng Philippines thffdng khdng nam trong Hipp hpi Iffdng thffc Viet Nam (VFA) hoac ed thi eung ehi tiip trung vao xua't kha'u thffitng mai, khdng tham gia nhieu vao eae hdp ddng Chinh phii xua't kha'u sang Philippines. Dieu
niiy et) the ehi xiiy ra trong ngan han. Tham ehi ed nhieu DN Ihuoc Vl'A dang dffde hffdng ldi lif e;ie giao dich vdi IhfftJng nhiin nhap khan Philippines do ei<che nhap khiiu mdi eiia nffdc niiy trao quyen eho Iff nhan nhieu hdn. Day lii ngudn ldi mang linh nha'l thdi, nhffng hp se phiii doi dien V(')i eanh tranh gay gill ht^n Irong Mdng lai.
Khi Ihi Irffdng giam eiiu nhiip khiiu gao Vic.i Nam do suy gi;im lir Philippines, thi eae DN trffi'Je day xiui'l kha'u sang Philippines se phiii lim kie-m cd hdi xua'l khiiu mdi sang eae Ihi Irffdng khiie. Xu hffdng niiy se giiy ap Iffc eanh tranh ICMI
\uiil khriu Ihffi^ng mai vii giiy anh hffi'Jng khdng nhd do eae DN xua'l khau vao Philippines deu la eae DN li'tii eiia Vinarood2. Nhff viiy, hieu ffng Philippines se mang linh gian lie'p ICMI eae DN trfftie day khdng Iham gia vao thi trffdng Philippines.
Dp Idn eung nhff ldi ieh gia eao ciia thi trffdng Philippines da hinh thanh ncMi mpt chuoi gia tri Ida gao ei'i ffu the \irdt trdi \ e gia \ a Iffdng eiia ihi trffifng nay so vdi mat biing ehung eiia ihi Irffdng. .-\i lii ngffdi hffdng ldi Idn nhal trong chudi gia tri nii\?Trong Irffdng hdp thi Irffdng lua gao ngiiyCMi lieu khdng ed hien ddng Idn dii de lao ra ldi nhuiin eho xuiil khau gao thi nhieu kha nang eae DN xua'l khiiu se thu dffde ldi ieh Idn nha'l, ke liep la ede DN lau bdng gao. Cd the thffdng ldi eung dff phiin nao, nhffng se khdng Idn, edn ndng dan ehi hffdng nhff mat bang ehung thj irffdng bat ke la bdn
lua vao kcMih xua'l di Philippines, llongKong, hay Singapore...
Ai la hffdng ldi Idn nha't tff Ihi Irffdng Philippines se chiu thiel hai nhicu nha't. Ldn hi^n nffa, suy giam thi trffdng Philippines se lac ddng dpc den liii eii eae DN theo chudi gia Iri xuiil khau di Philippines.
Khdng ehi ed D.N Idn xua't khau trffe tidp \ a o Philippines chiu linh hffi'Jng, mil ea mot he thdng cac DN eung ffng nguyen lieu lin theo eung chiu Uie ddng.
Mdt ^lr sut giam ngay tffc kliiie eiia doanh thu se lam cho DN trd nC'ii tie ma'l phffiJng hffding \ii se phai mat thdi gian diii de djnh \i lai minh neu khong ed sff ehii ddng ddn trffi'te riii ro nay. Ciie DN trffe thuoe Vinaloi^LJ 2 iff irffde ddn na\ ludn la\ ihi irffiJng Philippines lam diem lffa dang phai Ua giii eho sff riii ro "bd ta't ea trffng \iio mdt gid" vii mdt Ihi irffiing iffdng nhff an U>iin mai miii. Sif su\ giam eiia siin Iffdng xua't khau la mot sir ihua thiel- Nhirng eung ed sff ihua Ihiet d khia eanh khac nffa dd ki mffe giii xuat khau sang ihj Irffdng Philippines iff nay li\'< di se khdng edn dffdc "beo bd" nhff trffdc day nffa.
••/•/;(// ky nhdng DN xudt khau vdo thi trUcfng PhiUppines dd dUcfc hUc'mg kii Id: Thdng 3 ndm 2009 .xudt khau gao 25%
tdm di Philippines dat mdc gid 448 USD/tdn cao hcfn 50 USD den 60 USD so vc'fi cdc thi trudng khdc. Thdng 3/2010, mdc gid vdo Philippines cdn dat mdc 657 USD/tdn bo xa cdc mdc gid vdo cdc thi trUdng khdc. Vdi phep tinh clcfn gidn .'se
Tong quan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
V i e t I^am
126
I Ml,
so 3 (2011)
thay chi cdn mdc gid chenh nhau 5 USD/tdn giifa cdc hop dong xudt khau thi vdi mot luang hdng nho 20 ngdn tdn thi mitc chenh lech dd len tdi 100 ngdn USD"
Nhffng nhffng gi da diin ra khong cd nghia van se tiep tuc diin ra, tff nam 2011, thdi the (hinh nhff )da thay ddi.
Vao trung luan thdng 3/2011 cac hang tin qud'c te nhff Reuters bay ciia Philippines cho biet NFA loan bdo ky bdp dong 200 ngdn ta'n vdi Viet Nam vdi gid cao bdn mffe chung ciia gid thj trffdng nbUiig tha'p hdn mffe gid cho phep eua Chinh phu. Mffe gid nay cua NFA trong cdc ban tin .sau cua Reuters dffdc xdc nhan Id 480 USD, gid CIF vdi 270 ngdy tra cham. Ne'u trff di cdc ehi phi van chuyen, Idi sua't trff di cho 270 ngdy tra cham vd bao hiem thi mffe gid FOB xud't tai chan cang Sai Gdn vao khoang 425 USD/td'n. Mffe gid nay hien cao hdn mffe gid md gidi thffdng mai dang giao djch, nhffng thap bdn mffe gid ma Chinh phii Philippines cho phep NFA nhap kha'u.
Cung theo Reuters, binh luan ve sff kien nay dng Chookiat Ophaswongse, Chu tich danh dff Hi8p hpi cdc nhd xua't kha'u gao Thdi Lan cho rang: "Viet Nam se Idm mpi cdch de giU thi trudng. Vd vdi mdc gid nhu vay toi khong nghi Thdi Lan co the canh tranh d thi trudng ndy"
Philippines da td ra ra't khdn ngoan chpn lffa thdi diem td't nha't cd the khi tham gia thj trffdng, khi ngudn cung cua Viet Nam tff vu Ddng Xuan trd
nen ddi dao va Thdi Lan bat dau vdo vu thu hoach. Hdn nffa, neu nhff nam nay Philippines tham gia thj trffdng ngay Iff dau nam, thi chile chan se lam cho thj trirdng cang nhff day dan khi Iffpng hdng tdn kho nam cu chuyen sang ciia Viet Nam mdng, Indonesia va Bangladesh dang vet gao de lap day kho dff trff qudc gia nham ehdng chpi vdi lam phdt. Neu .so sanh vdi gia gao 25% ta'm xua't di cdc thi irffdng trong thdng 3/2011, thi mffe gia ky vdi NFA dff kien se vdo thdng 4 bode 5 khdng phai thffc sff ha'p dan, ddc biet neu so vdi cdc thj trffdng xud't kha'u thffdng mai cd Iffdng nhap kha'u kha nhff Ghana, Singapore, Hdng Kong.
Bien khung hoang thanh eff hoi ddi mdi?
Sff thay ddi ciia Philippines vd cd the cua cdc thj trffdng tap trung khdc dang lam thay ddi ket ca'u thj trffdng xud't kha'u gao ciia Viet Nam. Cdn can dang thay ddi theo hffdng suy giam vj the vd ldi icb ciia thj trffdng tap trung dem lai so vdi cdc thj trffdng xud't kha'u thffdng mai.
Xud't khau gao ciia Viet Nam cung ed the dffdc lien be nhff hinh anh xua't khd'u hang hda cua Trung Qud'c ra the gidi, ddc biet dd'i vdi hang gia dung. Trong nhieu ndm, Trung Qudc da 1dm ca the gidi phai lo ngai vi chien Iffdc hang xud't khau gid re cua minh. Trung Qud'c dang chuyen minh len thj trffdng pham cap cao bdn vdi nhffng ddi mdi ve cdng nghe
va cha't Iffdng san pha'm. Hat gao Viet Nam eung vay, da chiem ITnh thj phan ra't manh va lam eho Thdi Lan phai lo ngai. Tuy nhien, phan khiic thj trffdng eiia Viet Nam van chii yeu d pha'm ca'p tha'p, gia re.
Neu Viet Nam tap trung vd
"yen vj" qud lau trong phan khue thj trffdng gid re thi dd cd the se gap cai "bay xua't thj trffdng gia re" Da den luc nganh xua'l kha'u gao eiia Viet Nam phdi tinh de'n sff dich ehuyen len na'e thang gid trj gia tang eao hdn eiia chudi gia In loan eau.
Philippines chii yeu nhap khiiu gao 25% ta'm, phiim cap tha'p. Nam 2010, ty trpng gao 25% ta'm, chiem de'n 98%
trong cd ca'u nhap khau gao ciia nffdc nay tff thj trffdng Viet Nam. Nen ed ca'u nhap khiiu gao cua Philippines da tao cho Viet Nam mpt ca'u triic thj trffdng cd sff "thien vj" dd'i vdi gao loai nay. Sir "thien vj" nay da lam cho gia eiia ede loai lua gao nguyen lieu cho gao 25%
ta'm xud't khau ed ffu the mot cdch tffdng dd'i so vdi cdc chung loai lua gao nguyen heu khdc. Thdng thffdng nhu cau gao 25% ta'm tdng manh khi Philippines cd nhu cau nhap khau thffdng vao dau ndm, rdi vdo vu Ddng Xuan cd dffdc pha'm chat gao tdt nha't trong ndm, Iiic dd gid gao 25% tdm se tdng manh bdn gid cdc loai gao khdc. "Khi Philippines gidm vi the trong nhap khau gao cua Viet Nam - dieu ndy se gay tdc dong trong ngdn han ve gidm kim ngach xudt khau gao cua Viet Nam nhung co the lai tao ra co hoi cho Viet Nam
127
Tong quan
Kinh t e - X a hoi
ViAt Mam
hoclc day Vict Nam vdo tinh the tdi can true led ngdnh xudt khdu gcio len cdc pham cdp cao lum. Ddy led chinh Id nujt lcfi ich mang tinh vi nicX song vdn cdn o clcing tiem ndng
Cd hpi \ i md ihi riil khd Ihffe hien \i nd lion quan phffe lap den eae ehinh sach xii the ehe bam re l;iu ngiiy \dii khenig de iha}' ddi "ng;i\' mot nga\' hai" Nhffng ed hoi \ i mo eho DN lili lal cu the \ ii Irffe dicMi. Mpt eude kluing hoang eiia ihi irffdng hay siil ijiam manh doanh lliii it nha'l sc biil bupe DN phai Iff danh gia lai hien Irang eiia minh \ii dieu chinh ehinh sach neu mudn tdn lai.
Thi trffdng dang trd ncMi biC-n dpng \ ii da dang hdn. DN xua't khau gao (hao gdm ea DN trffdc day xua'l kha'u sang Philippines \ii D.N xua'l khau thffctng mai) se phai dd'i mat
\di tinh the khd khdn hdn trong tffdng lai gdm cd the mac ea eua nha nhap khau Idn bdn, canh tranh trong ndi bp nganh manh hdn, \ii the miic eii eiia nha eung ffng nguyen lieu cung khdng edn de chiu nffa. Nhffng ehuyen bie'n eiia Philippines va thi trffdng ndi ehung ed nhffng ham y rat quan trpng ddi \ d i eae DN xua'l khiiu gao eua Viet Nam theo mdt each ly giai la nhffng gi lii hdp ly eiia ngay hdm qua ed the khdng edn hdp ly eiia ngay hdm nay va ngay mai nffa. Bdi eanh mdi ddi bdi DN phai ed each tff duy va ffng xff mdi neu mudn cd sff chuan bi va phdt trien trong tffdng lai.
Rat ed the mdt cudc chdi mdi vdi nhieu nhan tdtde ddng phffe tap dan xen dang d a n
bill diiu. Trong dd khdng chi bdi mpt sff diC'U ehinh eiia Philippines, ma e(') the eiia eae ihi trffdng lap Irung khac. Ciidc elidi niiy efing dang chiu sff ehi phdi ciia Campuchia trouj.' Iffcing lai lid Ihiinh mdi dd'i Ihu eanh Iranh xua't khau g a o v((i Viel Nam, Ilia chay Iff Campuchia sang Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long khdng ci^n ddi diio nii'a, vii eung bi anh hffi'fng hifi eae dieu ehinh eiia Nghi dinh 109/2010/ND-CP ngay 4/1 1/2010 mdi day iheo hffdng lap Irung quycMi Iffc eho eae DN Idn va ldi the ha tiing kho bai. Cii(")e chi^i niiy eung sc bi lae ddng bdi sff tham gia theo e:i hai hffdng hdp lac Iie-n doanh vii eanh tranh Iff eae DN nffdc ngoai dffde phep tham gia vao kinh doanh xuat khau gao Viiit Nam theo cam kel WTO.
Cd nhieu DN da ed the Iffdng trffdc thay ddi na\' \ a da am thiim chuan bj tff lau, nhffng eung ed the ec) nhieu DN ehira ec) sff chuan bi \ a na\' chdi "bifng tinh" trffdc cu sut giam doanh thu \ii \ p i \ a tim each ffng phd. Cae DN se phai
ed nhffng dieu ehinh ehien Iffde kinh doanh, ed nhffng thff nghiC-m mdi, se cd tha't bai va e(') thanh eong.
Nhffng trong mdt cue dien nhff hie-n nay khi ma moi irffiJng thay ddi thi khdng the khdng hanh ddng. Thi Irffdng niio dem lai ldi nhuan nhieu nhiit, dong sail pham ndo dem lai doanh thu eao nhd't thi phiii ddn Iffc nhieu nha'l eho nd.
Trffdc day, mdt eiiu true thj irffiJng tffi^ng ddi dn djnh ciia eae hdp ddng Cbinh phii da dan ddn mot xu hffdng hinh thanh nhffng "Iffe but" cac DN xuat khau gao eua Vii}l Nam ffng xff dp dung ehien Iffdc kinh doanh phuc \ u. nham den eae bdp ddng Chinh phii. Dieu nay hoan loan hdp Iff nhien vii DN da hanh ddng hffdng den mue lieu hieu qua kinh te tdi ffu xet trong mdt khdng gian
"iTnh" \di ca'u true thj trffdng eiia eae hdp ddng Chinh phii ehi phdi.
Thi Irffdng tap trung ddi hdi gi'.' CK^ le dau lien \ii khdng phai duy nha'l dd la DN phai lii thanh \ ien eua VFA. ed uy lin quan he xuiil khiiu theo hdp
Blia 4: XUAT KHAU GAO 25% TAM Di MpT s 6 THI T R U O N G THANG 3 2011
600 550 500 450 400 350 300
490
\ E
3 %_ O m
S) c
3 CD
^^^ 435 438
1
Cameroon China East Timor
559 SOS • -
l i
IkW
Ghana Guinea Haiti
519 4S0 mm
1 1 • 1
00 ro c 00 c ^ . o
Q. '03
'•— -^
'jz "
a.
489
\ \ \
§ ° 1
J5 S -^
Tong qnan
Kinh t e - X a hoi 128
!iii!ir;ii';,B
so 3 (2011) dong Chinh phu, ngodi ra nd
doi hdi can cd ngudn hang ldn, h$ thdng kho tang tdt, thdi gian giao hang dung hen, trong khi do viec tim kiem khdeh hdng mdi khong phdi Id ddi hdi sdng con ciia DN.
Nhff vay, mdt cdch tff nhien va logic khi ta't ca eae ngudn lire cua DN nhff vd'n, dd't dai, nhan Iffe, tri thffe... deu ehu trong hffdng den phuc vu eho hdp dong Chinh phu trong ta't ca cac khau cua quy trinh kinh doanh... Nhffng thdnh td nay djnh hinh mdt kel ca'u td chffc va chien Iffdc kinh doanh ciia DN vdi nhffng ifu lien hang dau nham \ao cdc khau thu mua, dau tff kho bdi, eung ffng dung han, xdy dffng quan he.
Nhff vay, cdc gia trj cdi ldi eua DN liic nay thien ve cdc
"quyen Iffc effng" - dd la nhffng yeu to' de nhdn biet.
Quy md do so, thj trffdng dn dinh, he thdng kho tang Idn, doanh thu cao de ru ngu DN trong vang hao quang va 1dm cho nd trd nen xd effng trffdc cac thay ddi trong ldng cua thj trffdng, trd nen coi nhe nhffng
ddi hdi cdi lien vd ddi mdi cua gudng may, tdng cffdng quan trj bieu qua, ffng dung cdng nghe thdng tin trong quan trj, gay dffng thong tin phan tich va dff bdo thj trffdng, tiep thj vd xay dffng hinh anh DN...
Nhffng yeu td dffdc coi nhff
"quyen Iffe mem" - dd Id nhffng yeu td the hien tinh ndng ddng, bieu qua, the hien cdng ndng eua ed che quan trj kinh doanh eiia DN.
Bd'i canh mdi dang ddi hdi DN phai ldi ca'u true lai chien Iffdc phat trien ciia ehinh minh. DN can Idi nhuiin ngay trffdc mat de trang trai boat ddng, nhffng cung phai tinh den cudc chdi dai ban neu khdng mud'n minh bj loai ra ngodi. Nhffng ffu lien ciia phdn bd ngudn Iffe can phai dffdc ra sodt lai vd dieu cbinh dffa tren cdc gia djnh ve trien vpng thj trffdng trong tffdng lai se dien tien the' nao vd DN minh nen dffdc djnh vj ra sao trong ke't ca'u ngdnh cung nhff phdn khue thj trffdng ndo de dat hieu qua cao nha't. Ben canh viec dep tue cung cd'
Biiu 5; TY TRQNG CAC LOAI GAO TRONG CO CAU GAO NHAP KHAU T d VIET NAM CUA PHILIPPINES N A M 2010
0.11'^.,
G r l O l l M r i i
tJaonep Q i : % Ooolih^c _ _ _ J J ^ ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ ^ , , . . - ' O-300
^^^^^H^^^^^^
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ H '^'^'"''
^ H ^ ^ K t.iitn ,mB
^ ^ . . .
nang Iffe san xua't vd che^ bie'n, se can nhieu ngudn Iffc hdn cho cdc boat dpng gay dffng ba tang mem, dae biet la tie'p thj ed bai ban va xay dffng binh anh ddi han ciia DN.
Chien Iffde mdi ciing can hffdng ldi niim bat cac cd hpi phdt trien mdi thay vi chi tap trung giai quyet cac va'n de tdn tai ed tinh ngiin ban va sff vu do sff sut giam eiia doanh thu tff thj trffdng Philippines.
Cau bdi dat ra la cd edn nhffng ed hpi mdi nao nffa khdng trdng bdi canh hien nay?
Chac chan ludn luon ed ed hpi mdi ngay ca trong trffdng hdp thj trffdng khiing hoang va suy giam. Theo nhff cau ndi ndi tieng cua nha kinh le hpe ngffdi Ao Joseph Schumpeter "sff buy diet mang tinh sang tao"
cdi cu mat di la de cdi mdi ffu viet hdn sinh ra va phdt trien.
Philippines giam nhap khau gao tff Viet Nam nhifiig se van cdn nhffng thj trffdng tap trung khdc nhff Bangladesh - vffa mdi ky mdt ban thda ffdc ra't d'n tffdng vdi xua't khiiu gao Viet Nam hang ndm cd the len den 1 ffieu tan sang thj ffffdng nay, bay Cu Ba, Indonesia, Malaysia... Sff nit di cua Philippines khdng ddng nghla vdi sff mat di ngay ciia cdc thj trffdng tap trung.
DN nen nhin nhan nd nhff mot tieng chudng canh tinh ve mffe dd rui ro vd bien dpng cua thj trffdng de cd mpt ehien Iffdc bieu qua. Nhffng DN khdn ngoan van khdng ndi khdng vdi nhffng ffu ddi cua bdp ddng Chinh phu, nhffng se lim cdch gay dffng mdt nen tang vffng vang ve thj trffdng cho rieng minh trong ddi hanG
129 T^ng quan
Kinh te-Xa hoi Vi^t Nam
