ThiFcyng mai q u o c te 2012 va trien v o n g 2013
PCS. TS. NGUYEN HONG NHUNG
Nam 2012 ket thuc vai mot kit qua khong mdy sdng sua irong ITnh virc thirang mgi quoc te, bdi sir sut gidm ddng ke khong chi trong tdc do lang tnrdng, md cd trong xu hirdng gia cd cdc hdng hda vd sir "ddm chdn tgi chd " trong qud Irinh ddm phdn tir do hda thuang mgi lodn cdu Irong khung khd Td chuc Thirang mgi Thegidi (WTO).
Tir khda: chinh Iri qudc le, an ninh qudc li. an ninh phi truyin lhdng I. Toe do tang triroTig thirong mai the gioi giam dang Itc so voi nam 2011
Theo so lieu thing ke cua IMF, kim ngach xuat khau hang hoa va dich vu cua ca the gidi nam 2012 uoc dat 22.419 ty USD, tang 188 ty USD so vdi nam trudc, Trong dd, rieng xuit khiu hang hda dat 18.329 ty USD, tang 152 ty USD so vdi nam trudc. Tuy nhien, sir gia tang nay thap hon nhidu so vdi nhung nam trudc dd va dang ghi nhan la nd xay ra vdi tat ca cac r\hdm nude khac nhau tren the gidi, vdi ca xuat khau va nhap khau va ca hang hda va djch vu (xem Bdng 1). Tai cac nude thudc nhdm G7 va BRICs, trao ddi thucmg mai qudc te bat dau giam din tu Quy 11/2012'.
Cd nhidu nguydn nhan khac nhau dan ddn ket qua trdn. Trudc hel, dd la sir suy giam tang trudng kinh td ndi ehung va tdng eau eua nhidu khu vuc khac nhau trdn the gidi ndi ridng.
*Vifn Kinh ti vi Chinh trj The gidi
' News release OECD International Trade Statistics.
Paris, 29 November 2012, p. 1
Trong nhdm cac nude phat trien, ngoai trir My va Nhat Ban, tat ca cac nude cdn lai, dac bidt la Khu vuc ddng euro, ddu cd mirc tang trudng GDP va tdng cau thuc te trong nude giam dang kd so vdi nam trudc. Cdn trong nhdm cac thj trucmg dang ldn va cae nude dang phat trien, khu vuc Trung va Ddng Au, khu vuc chau A dang phat tridn, khu vuc My Latinh va Caribe, ddu cd tdc dd tang trudng kinh te va tdng ciu thuc te trong nude nam 2012 thap hon nhieu so vdi nam trudc. Su suy giam tang trudng sau d Khu vuc ddng euro khdng chi tac ddng xiu ldn xuat khau cua nhidu nude dang pbat tridn va thi trudng dang len, ma ddng thdi cung lam giam nhap khau ciia khu vuc nay. Viu Id ihir hai lam xau di birc tranh toan canh cua thucmg mai qudc te nam 2012 la sir giam gia ca ciia hau hdt cac nhdm hang (dugc trinh bay chi tiet hon d muc sau). Va yeu td ihir ba la tac ddng cua chinh sach tai can bang can can thanh toan ma nhieu nude dang theo dudi sau cudc khiing hoang kinh td toan cau 2008 - 2009. Theo cae chuydn gia IMF, mue can ddi can bang toan cau da dugc thu hep nhd vao sg giam cau nhap khau cua cae NhOng vin di KINH T6 VA CHINH TRj JHt Gldl So 1(201) 2013 31
Nguyin H6ng Nhung Thu-ang mai quoc tl 2012 vd triln vgng;
nuac bi anh huong nang ne cua khung hoang va tham hut trong can can thuong mai, cung nhu giam cau trong nuac cua cac nuoc co thang du thuang mai, ma trudc bet la su suy giam tang trudng d Tmng Qudc va nhung khd khan hong boat ddng xuat khau cua Due va Nhat Ban (xem
Hinh 1). Thue tl cho dily, nhimg cd gdng dilu chinh theo hudng gia tang eau ndi dia tai cdc nude cd thang du hong cdn edn thuang mai mdi dang d giai doan ddu hen cua qua trinb vd nd dugc the hien rd ban d Nhat Bdn vd Trung Qudc so vdi d Due vd cdc nude xudt khiu dlu md.
Bang 1: Toe do tang trudng khoi luong trao doi hang hda va dich vu the gidi (% so vdi nam trudc)
Chi so 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thuong mai the gidi ve hang hda va dich vu 12,6 5,8 3,2 4,5 Nhgp khau
Cac nude phat trien 11,4 4,4 1,7 3,3
Cac thi trudng dang len va cac nuac dang phat trien 14,9 8,8 7,0 6.6 Xudt khdu
Cac nude phat trien 12,0 5,3 2,2 3,6
Cac thi trudng dang len va cac nude dang phdt trien 13,7 6,5 4,0 5,7 Thuong mai hang hda the gidi
Nhgp khau
Cac nude phat trien 13,4 4,9 1,7 3,7
Cac thj trudng dang len va cac nude dang pbat trien 15,6 9,8 1,4 6,9 Cdc nude xuat khdu ndng lugng 8,0 9,9 9,6 6,3 Cac nude xudt khdu phi nang lugng 17,5 9,8 6,9 7,1 Xudt khau
Cac nude phat trien 14,1 5,7 2,4 3,5
Cac thi trudng dang len va cae nude dang phat trien 14,0 6,6 4,0 5,6 Cac nude xuat khdu ndng lugng 4,4 3,6 2,8 2,7 Cac nude xuat khau pbi nang lugng 17,0 7,7 4,6 6,9 Ngudn: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2012,
Can eir tren cae sd lieu d Bang 1 cd the thay rdng, trong mdt vai nam gan day, tdc dd tang trudng xuat khau ludn cao hem nhdp khau d nhdm cac nude phat trien va dieu ngugc lai xay ra vdi nhdm ede thj trudng dang len vd cdc nude dang phat trien. Ket qua nay mot phan la do xu hudng thay ddi gid ea tao nen, nhung mat khdc la do sg cai thien trong tang trudng kinh te d rdidm cae nude dang phdt trien. Theo danh gia cua eae chuyen gia Ngan hang Thi gidi va
pp. 203-204.
Eurostate, nhap khau cua cdc nude dang phat trien da giup rdiieu nude ed thu nhap eao, ddc biet la Khu vgc ddng euro, cdi thien tang trudng kinh tl hong dieu kien edu trong nude cua ho.
van cdn yeu do anh hudng cua cudc khiing hoang kinh te toan cdu vd qua trinh tai co clu nin kinh tl. Tren thgc tl, tir ndm 2011, cdc nude dang phdt trien chiem tdi 2/3 mirc gia tdng xudt khdu ngodi EU cua cdc nude Due va Phdp (xem Hinh 2).
32 -Nhdng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! THC G\Cn S6 1(201) 2013
Nguyin H6ng Nhung Thu-ang mai qu6c tl 2012 va triln vong
Nguon: WB, Glgbal Economic Prospects, vol. 6, Jan. 2013, p. 13.
2. Gii ca suy giam o tat ca cac nhom hang h6a Idiic nhau
Theo tfnh toin cua' IMF va Ngin hing The gidi, ngoai trir diu mo co mirc tang nhe, nim 2012, gii ca cua tit ci cic rdiom hing hoa con Ipi deu giim di so vai nim tnrac. Trong do, neu tinh bing USD, nhom hang che tao co mirc giim diap nhit la 0,5%, tidp den la nhom hang thuc pham giam 1,1%, nguyen lieu nong sin giim 12,9%, kim loai giam 16,5% va giam nhieu nhit la nhdm hang dd uong tdi 20,1%^. Vdi xu hudng suy giam gia ca nhu vay, nhdm cic nude ' IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2012, p. 2003.
dang phit tridn se chiu tic ddng ldn hem, khi nhirng mat hing xuit khiu chu lire cua rdiidu nude la bing kim loai, nguydn lidu ndng san, cdn nhip khiu ebu ydu lai li miy mdc, thidt bj va nhidu nude edn nhip khiu khi nhieu hang thuc phim. Cic sd lidu d bing 2 cho chung ta thiy rd ban dien bidn gii ci nim 2012 cua cic nhdm hang ehinh cd tic ddng ldn hoat ddng xuit nhip khiu cua cic nude ed thu nhip thip va trung binh.
Ly giii eho su suy giim gii ci cua nhidu nhdm hang hda trong nam 2012, die bidt sau Quy II, cic chuyen gia IMF cho ring dd la kdt qui ciia cie quy luat thj trudng trdn cae thj NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TW THt Gl6l Sd 1(201) 2013 33
Nguyin H6ng Nhung Thygng mgi qu6c tl 2012 vd triln vgng::
trudng hang hda tucmg ung. Cu the la, su suy giam tang trudng d Khu vuc ddng euro, cac nen kinh te dang len, dac biet la Trung Qudc, da lam giam cau nhap khau cua cac nude nay ddi vdi nhieu nhdm hang hda, dac biet la nang luong, nguyen lieu, tir dd, lam giam gia ca cua cac nhdm bang nay. Thang 4/2012, lan dau tien ke tir giura ndm 2009, tdc dd tang trudng cdng
nghiep theo quy eua Trung Qudc da gidm xudng mirc 1 con sd va su suy giam sau dd cua dau tu vao khu vuc bdt ddng san cua nude nay da lam giam dang kk muc tieu thu kim loai co ban cua Trung Qudc, tuc la giam tdng cau cua the gidi ve nhdm bang nay. Kdt qud ndy keo tbeo su gidm gia cua chung tren thi trudng kim loai CO ban the gidi.
Bdng 2: Chi so gia the gidi do Ngan hang The gidi tinh cho cac nude c6 thu nhap thap va trung binh (2005 = 100)
Dffn vi: % Nhdm hang hda 2010 2011 2012 Quy
IV/
2011 Quy
1/
2012 Quy 11/
2012 Quy
III/
2012 Quy IV/
2012 Ndng lugng 144,7 188,2 187,4 186,6 200,8 183,7 183,2 182,1 Phi nanglugng 173,9 209,9 190,0 188,8 192,9 189,3 191,0 186,9 Ndng san 170,4 209,0 194,0 190,7 192,6 191,7 200,6 191,1 Dd udng 182,1 208,2 166,2 183,7 171,7 162,7 169,7 160,8 Thgc pham 169,6 210,1 211,6 197,6 203,6 206,9 225,2 210,7 Md va dau thgc vat 184,5 222,7 230,0 202,5 216,9 231,1 250,2 221,9 Ngii cdc 171,8 238,5 244,2 229,3 226,8 227,2 264,0 258,8 Thgc pham khac 148,2 167,8 157,9 162,2 165,2 156,8 157,1 152,4 Nguyen lieu thd 166,3 206,7 165,3 177,8 176,5 169,3 156,6 158,7 Go 130,5 153,5 142,7 152,2 144,9 143,7 140,7 141,7 Cac nguyen lieu thd khac 205,4 264,8 189,9 205,8 211,0 197,4 173,9 177,4 Phan bdn 187,2 267,0 259,2 284,2 260,1 270,0 256,9 249,9 Kim loai va khoang chat* 179,6 205,5 174,0 174,0 185,7 175,4 163,9 171,1 Kim loai co ban** 169,2 193,2 168,6 164,1 178,2 166,2 162,1 167,7 Kim loai cjuy 272,2 371,9 378,3 382,0 386,1 363,6 372,7 390,7 C/tii tfticli: * Bao gdm kim logi ca bdn vd qudng sdt.
** Gdm nhom, ddng, chi, nickel, thiec vd kem.
Ngudn: http://www.worldbank.org/prospects/commodities. Development Prospects Group, Jan.7, 2013. Theo nhu tinh toan cua cac chuyen gia IMF, tir dau ndm eho den cudi thang 9/2012 vd sau gid ddu md tinh bdng dd la My tren tbi trudng dd bdt ddu giam nhe. Theo udc tinb eua OPEC,
the gidi ndm 2012 tdng nhe so vdi nam 2011 mue gia dau thd trung binh eho ca ndm 2012 sd vdi mirc 2,l%^ Gia dau cd xu hudng gia tang la 110 USD/thiing'*. Cd dugc sg dn djnh nhu ' IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2012, p. 203. * OPEC. Monthly Oil Market Report, Nov. 2012, p. 6.
34 NhOng vin di KINH it VA CHINH TR! THt Gl6ri S6 1(201) 2013
Nguyfen H6ng Nhung Thugng mai quoc t§ 2012 va triln vong...
vay la nho sir didu chinh kha nhip nhang hr phia cung, die biet la phan cung tir cac nuoc OPEC.
Voi mirc cung luon cao bon cau, tuy khong idueu (xem Bdng 3), da gop phan dang ke vao vige on dinh gia dau mo tren the gioi trong nam 2012. Tuy nhien, can ghi nhan rang cac khoan
dau tu mod trong ITrdi vuc khai thac va chd bidn dau mo, ciing nhu chinh sach phat tridn cac nguon nang lugng thay the dugc nhidu nuoc thgc hidn trong nhirng nam gan day da mang lai nhimg kdt qua buoc dau, gop phan giam hot cang thang trdn thi trucmg dau mo thd gioi.
Bdng 3: Bang can doi cung, cau dau mo nam 2012 (trieu thiing/ngay) 2011 Quy ll
2012 Quy 11/
2012 Quy III/
2012 Quy
IV/
2012 2012 Cau dau mo thd gioi 88,04 87,86 87,86 89,44 90,01 88,80 Cung tir cac nuoc ngoai OPEC 57,85 58,79 58,30 58,31 59,42 58,71 Chdnh lech giira tong cau va cung tir
cdc nu6c ngoai OPEC 30,19 29,08 29,58 31,12 30,59 30,09 Cung tir OPEC 29,79 31,22 31,49 31,24
Can dox -0,40 2,15 1,93 0,11 ...
Nguon: OPEC. Monthly Oil Market Report. Nov.
3. Thuong mai quoc te ciia cac nuo-c dang phdt trien Dong A thang tram theo su len xuong ciia san xuat cong nghicp ciia cdc ban hdngIon
Dd tir rdiidu ndm nay, cac nuoc Dong A luon gid vai tro dong lgc cua tang truong thucmg mai khu vgc vd toan cau, cung chirdi vi thd, no thd hidn khd ro sg phu thuoc ciia minh vao nhdng thdng trdm eua thuomg mai thd gicii. Nam 2012, sg suy giam tdc do tdng trucmg thuomg mai thd
%\d\ dd phan dnh kha ro net ldn sg phat tridn thuomg mai qu6c td cua cac nuoc Dong A. Trdn pham vi toan cdu, no chju dnh hudng cua sg suy gidm nhu cau nhdp khau ciia hai tbi trudng ldn Id My va EU. C) cdp dd khu vgc, xudt khdu cua cdc nude Ddng A phu thudc nhidu vao sg thdng trdm cua ndn kinh td Trung Qudc vd cdc NIE.
Sau khi tdng manh vdi tdc dp hai con sd vdo Quy I, xuat khau cua cdc nude Ddng A giam mpnh hong Quy II, rdi lai gia tdng trd lai vdo Quy IV/2012, cimg vdi sg thdng trdm cua sdn xuat cdng nghidp d Trung Qude vd sg khdi sac hong xuat khdu eua cdc NIE ra thi trudng the gidi. Trong ndm 2012, Nhdt Bdn tiep tuc la mdt
2012, p.76.
thj trudng xuat khau ldn ciia nhidu nude dang phat tridn Ddng A, do nhu cau tai thiet ciia dat nude nay sau tham hpa ddng dat va sdng than dau nam 2011.
Sg suy giam trong tdc dp tang trudng xuat khau, kdt hgp vdi xu hucmg suy giam gia cd ciia cac nhdm hang hda khac nhau trdn thd gidi, da lam giam dang kd thdng du thuomg mai cua nhidu nude Ddng A. Tbang du thuomg mai ciia Trung Qudc giam tir 420 ty USD (tucmg duomg 9,3% GDP) nam 2008 xudng edn 200 ty USD (tuong duong 2,3% GDP) nam 2012\ chii ydu la do suy giam xuat khau va chinh sach tdi edn bdng kinh td trong nude. Indonesia da cd miic tham hut ldn tdi 1,54 ty USD vdo thdng 10/2012 do nhu cau bdn ngoai ddi vdi cae mat hang xuat khdu chirdi cua nude nay (than, thidc va dau cp) bi giam manh, ddng thdi gia tang manh kim ngach nhap khau nang lugng do gia tang eao.
Cae nude Thai Lan, Philippines vd Malaysia
^ WB, Global Economic Prospects, vol. 6, Jan. 2013, p.
Nhdng vin dS KINH Tt VA CHINH TW TH^ Gl6l Sd 1(201) 2013 -
Nguyfen H6ng Nhung
cung trong hnh trang bi suy giam thang du thucmg mai.
4. Xu hudng chfnh sach
Kk iii Vhi xay ra cudc Idiung hoang tai chinh vk suy thoai kinh te toan cku 2008, xu hudng gia tdng bao hd nen kinh te trong nude da va dang dugc nhieu nude tren the gidi thgc hien.
Cho dkn hkt nSm 2012, theo thdng ke cua Global Trade Alert, cd tdng so gan 1.700 bien phap bao hd khac nhau da dugc ap dung tren thk gidi nham ban ehe thuomg mai, rieng nSm 2012 la khoang 180 bien phap. Cac bien phap thudng dugc ap dung la cac bien phap tg ve (chong ban pha gii, thud ddi khang va tg ve) vk ckc bien phap phi thue quan khac, ho trg chinh phu, cae bien phap lien quan den di cu va cac bien phap quan tbue (xem Hinh 3). Nam 2012, ckc nude ap dung nhidu bidn phdp bao hd nhat la Argentina vdi 27 bidn phap, Brazil - 17, Lidn Bang Nga - 16, Italy - 12 va Lidn hidp Anh va Bkc Aden - 11*. Cae nude bj knh huong nhidu nhat bdi eac bidn phap bao hd cua cae nude khac la Trung Quoc vdi 88 bidn phap. My - 51, Lidn hidp Anh va Bkc Ailen - 36, Han Qudc - 35 va Due - 34^. Ciing theo thdng kd eua Global Trade Alert, so vdi eac nam 2009 va 2010, so lugng eae bidn phap dugc cdng bd va ap dung trong nkm 2012 da giam dang kd. Tuy nhidn, ho eiing kdt luan rang, cac nude G20 phdi chiu hach nhidm chinh vd lan sdng bao hd thuomg mai tu khi ed cudc khiing hoang kinh td toan cau tdi nay. Bdi Id sd cae bidn phap bao hd dugc G20 ap dung da tang tu 60% nam 2009 Idn 75% nam 2011 va ldn khoang 79% nam 2012 trong tdng sd eae bidn phap bao hd dugc ap dung gdn thd gidi^. Hidn tugng nay, ndu xem
* http://www.globaltradealert.org/node/2257 ' http://www.globaltradealert.org/node/2256
DibScle: The 11th GTA Report on Protectionism, Edited by Simon J. Evenett, Global trade Alert and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, June 2012, p. 4
Thugng mgi qudc te 2012 vk triln vgng::-
xdt vd mat bidu hidn, cd did coi la sg gia tang lan sdng bao hd d nhieu noi hdn thd gidi, dkc
bidt la d nhdm G20. Song, neu xem xdt dudi gdc dd muc dich cua chinh sach thuomg mai cua cae qudc gia, thi se thSy ring dd la phan ling tam thdi ciia cac chinh phu khi nen kinh td hong nude eiia ho hi tdn thucmg. Thuc td cho thay, ddn nay, nhidu bidn phap bao hd ap dung hong cac nam 2009 va 2010 da dugc loai bd.
Hinh 3: Cac bien phap bao hp thudng dugc ap dung nam 2012
Bi$n phip Bi$n phdp 8i$n phip Bl^n Bl^n bio h$ hing rio phi a>u h^/nhd phdp di phdp thirong mai quan thu6 nip6« hfi trv cu" thu4
Ngudn: http J/www.glohaltradealert. org/node /2255, truy cap ngdy 16/1/2013.
Mdt xu hudng chinh sach khac, ddi lap vdi xu hudng bao hd ndi tren, la sg tang cudng cac
boat ddng dam phan va ky kdt cae hidp djnh thuomg mai tg do (FTA) song phuomg, khu vgc va cac hidp dinh ddi tac thuomg mai toan didn d nhidu nude va khu vgc trdn thd gidi. Didu dac bidt la xu hudng nay cung dugc thd hidn rit rd d eac nude thudc nhdm G20, didn hinh \k EU va My.
-NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! THt G\tn Sd 1(201) 2013
Nguyfen Hflng Nhung Thuang mai qu6c te 2012 va triln vong.
De nhanh chong thodt ra khoi tinh trang khiing hodng, cdc nuoc EU nhdn thiic rdt ro rdng, cdn phdi tdng cudng tu do hoa thuang mai. Trong boi cdnh Vong ddm phdn Doha con dang be tdc, ndm 2012, cac nuac EU da thuc ddy dam phdn FTA song phuang vai An Do, Singapore, Malaysia, ASEAN va My, da khdi ddng ddm phdn FTA vdi Viet Nam. Trong dam phdn FTA song phuang vdi My, hai ben da d%
cap den viec dd bd hdng rdo thu€ quan edn lai vd mdt so ban chd thuomg mai khac, tang cudng hgrp tde trong viec dua ra nhiing quy dinh v6 thuong lugmg trong qud trinh dam phan cac FTA song phuomg. Cd the ndi, mdi quan he kinh td xuydn Dai Tay Duomg ndy la xuong sdng ciia kinh td toan cdu, do dd mdt thda thudn song phuomg vd tdng trudng va vide lam se tbiic day boat ddng thuomg mai ciia My vd EU ndi ridng va kinh td todn cdu ndi ehung. Trong ndm 2012, EU da ky va phd chuan hidp djnh hgrp tdc vdi cac nude Trung My gdm: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua vd Panama. Du kidn hidp djnh ndy sd cd hidu luc vao nira cudi ndm 2013, sau khi cac nude Trung My phd chuan.
Bdn eanh cac cudc ddm phan dang tidn hanh vdi EU, cae nude Ddng A edn tidn hanh nhidu cugc ddm phan thucmg mai song phuomg khac.
Thdng 6/2012, Vidt Nam va Han Qude da khdi dgng dam pban FTA song phuang nhdm dua ra mgt FTA phii hgrp vdi eac tidu chuan ciia WTO vd cai thidn cdc cam kdt trong Hidp djnh FTA ASEAN - Hdn Qudc, chinh phu hai nude cho rdng hong qua trinh dam phan, hai ben can cd sy can nhdc phii hgrp ddn nhumg ITnh vuc nhay cdm ciia moi nude va su chdnh lech vd trinh dp phdt tridn giua hai qudc gia. Vidt Nam vd Lidn bang Nga dd hoan thdnh dam phdn Hidp djnh Ddi tdc chidn lupc vd dang cd ke hoach khdi dpng ddm phdn FTA vdo ndm 2013. Vdo thdng
5/2012, cac nha laidi dao 3 nude Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc da tuydn bd, ddng y dam pban vd FTA giira 3 nude (C/J/K FTA).
Cho dil dang cdn nhidu van dd giiia 3 nude, song hp cho rdng C/J/K FTA khdng chi thiic day thuomg mai, ma cdn tdng cudng lidn kdt khu vuc, hi dd sd ciing cd nidm hn chinh trj giira cac nude tham gia.
O cap lidn khu vuc, boat ddng dam phan FTA cung duoc tdng cudng manh trong ndm 2012, didn hinh Id Hidp djnh Ddi tdc chidn lupc xuydn Thai Binh Duomg (TPP). Ddn nay, nd da thu hut dupe su tham gia eiia cdc nude:
Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, My vd Vidt Nam.
Canada, Mexico vd Nhdt Ban da bay td mong mudn gia nhap cac cudc ddm phan. Trdn ndn tang dd, TPP sd la mdt trong nhumg thda thudn thuang mai rdng md nhat trdn thd gidi vd sd ed vai trd quan trpng ddi vdi nhidu nude tham gia.
Tbeo udc tinh, TPP s& tang thdm hdng ty USD eho ndn kinb td My va eiing cd cdc cam kdt vd cbinb trj, tai chinb va quan su ciia Washington d Thai Binh Duong trong cac thap nidn tdi.
Vdi mdn qua "trdi cho" tiem tang nhu the, Chinb quydn Obama tin rang, TPP sd cd nhidu khd nang vupt qua su phan ddi trong nude horn mdt thda thuan d Doha hay la cac thda thuan song phuomg mdi. Thd nhung, trudc mat, dam phdn TPP dang phai ddi mat vdi nhidu thdch thiic, dac bidt khi My mudn ap dat nhimg yeu cau va quy djnh cua minh lidn quan ddn van dd ban quydn va bang sang chd cho cac nude khac va khi cac nude dang cdn tinh toan vd nhimg loi ich ma hp cd the dat duac nhd TPP. Ngupc vdi su sdi ddng tren, qua trinh dam pban tu do hda thuomg mai trong khung khd WTO nam 2012 gan nhu "dam chan tai cho", cho dil da cd nhieu cd gang tir phia cac nha lanh NhOng vin tfl KINH vA CHINH TRj THt GIOI So 1(201) 2013 37
Nguyin H6ng Nhung
dao WTO va cac chi'nh phii thanh vien ke tu sau CUQC khiing hoang kinh te toan cau, nhu keo dai
thdi han ket thiic dam phan, giam bdt tham vong theo hudng dung hda dan dan nhiing khac biet giiia cac qudc gia va cd gang dat mdt thda thuan tdi thieu cd lgi cho cac qudc gia kem phat trien. Nguyen nhan cua sg be tac nay khdng chi la do chua cd each thirc phii hgp giai quyet cac bat ddng trong qua trinb dam pban, ma cdn la do nhung khd khan trong nude d nhieu nude thanh vien chii chdt tir cudc khiing hoang kinh tl va tai chinh toan cau va d chau Au dan den lan sdng bao hd van dang d mirc cao va sg gia ting dam phan FTA song phuong va khu vgc.
5. Trien vong thuong mai quoc te 2013 Dga tren cac dg bao ciia IMF, Ngan hang The gidi va Eurostat, mac dii bdi canh nen kinb te the gidi van cdn rdiieu bap benh, song trong vai nam tdi se cd sg cai thien tang trudng kinh te d hau het cac khu vgc tren the gidi. Tde dd tang trudng GDP thgc te toan clu duoc dg bao se d mirc khoang 2,4% cbo nam 2013, sau dd tang len tuong iing la 3,1 va 3,3% eho nam 2014 va 2015^. Dd chinh la nen tang de dg bao ve mdt trien vpng kha quan hon ciia thuang mai qudc te trong tuang lai. Theo dg bao eiia IMF, thuang mai toan cau ve bang hda vk dich vu nam 2013 se tang cao ban dang ke so vdi nam 2012 - vdi miic khoang 4,5% (xem Bdng 1).
Cdn Ngan hang The gidi thi dg bao rang tde dp tang khdi lugng thuang mai the gidi nam 2013 se la 6,0%'° va tiep tuc dugc cai thien trong nhirng nam sau dd. Nhiing dg bao vl xu hudng gia ca hang hda the gidi la kha kha quan, vdi sg dn dinh tuong ddi cua gia dau md d miic khoang 102 USD/thiing, gia nguyen lieu phi ' WB, Global Economic Prospects, vol. 6, Jan. 2013, p. 2
WB, Global Economic Prospects, vol. 6, Jan. 2013, p. 2
Thuang mgi quoc tl 2012 vk triln vpng^
nang lugng giam nhe d miic 2 - 3%, gia hang che tao thi ed xu hudng tang rdie vdi miic I -
2% eho giai doan 2013 - 2015" Vl mat chinh sach, trong thdi gian tdi, cac nude tren thi gidi se tiep tuc cdng cudc tai co clu nin kinh te theo hudng chli trpng nhilu ban din thi trudng ndi dja. Tuy vay, xu hudng tg do hda thuang mai va hdi nhap kirdi tl khu vgc va qudc tl vin dugc tang cudng, nhim thich iing vdi nhiing ddi hdi ctia qua trinh phat trien cac mang san xuat qudc te*
Tai lieu tham khao:
I. Hoang Thi Thanh Nhan va tap thi (2012):
Kinh te vd chinh tri the gidi 2011 vd triin vong 2012, NXB. Khoa hpc Xa hdi. Ha Ndi.
2. IMF (2012): World Economic Outlook, Oct.
3. OPEC (2012): Monthly Oil Market Report, Nov.
4. WB (2013): Global Economic Prospects, Vol, 6, Jan.
5. Pradumna B, Rana (2012): A Region-wide Free Trade Agreement in Asia, from hhp://wu'w,voxeu,org/article/free-trade-
agreement-asia, 25 June.
6. http://www.globaltradealert,org,
7. Debdcle: The 11th GTA Report on Protectionism, Edited by Simon J, Eveneh, Global trade Alert and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, June 2012
8. http://www,oecd,org/std/intemationaltrade andbalanceo fpaymentsstati sties/
9. http://vmw,nciec,gov,vn/index,nciec??16
" WB, Global Economic Prospects, vol. 6, Jan. 2013, p. 2 ,38] -NhOng vin cfl KINH T^ VA CHINH TR! TH^ Gl6f| S6 1(201) 2013
