Kinh te ASEAN 2011 va trien vong
TH.S. NGUY£N H6NG THU*
Truac nhiiu thdch thice vd nhiing nguy ca ldc ddng din tiin trinh tdng trudng ciia khu v(/c nhu khung hodng ng cdng & chdu Au, cdc vdn di tdi ehinh tgi mgt sd nude phdt triin. gid luang thuc vd hdng hda tdng cao, nhiing cdng thdng tren cdc Ihj truang tdi chinh thi gidi. kem theo dd la lam phdt gia tdng vd dnh hudng cua dgt la lut l&n chua timg thdy trong lich su tgi khu vuc ASEAN ldm tdc do tdng trudng kinh ti cua khu vue ndy chdm lai Ndm 2011, khu v{cc ASEAN dgt tdc dg tdng trucmg binh qudn 5%, gidm ddng ke so v&i 7,5% cita ndm tru&c.
1. Dong loat ha muc tieu tang tnrdng kinh te Chiu dnh hudng tan pha ndng nd cua thidn tai vd bat dn kinh Id loan cau, mpt sd nude nhu Thai Lan, Campuchia, Philippines vd Viet Nam da phdi ddng loat ha du bdo tdng trudng GDP ndm 2011. Trong do, Thdi Lan la nude chiu tdc ddng ndng ne nhdt do vua phdi trdi qua trdn iu lut chua timg ed trong lieh su ndu xdt vg sd cdc tinh thdnh vd sd ngudi dan bj dnh hudng cung nhu nhihig tdc dgng eua nd ddi vdi ca sd ha tdng trong ndn kinh te
Trdn lu lyt ndy dd gdy dnh hudng rat
"nghigm trpng va lan rpng" dgn kinh Id Thdi Lan, ddc biet Id ngdnh ndng nghiep, cdng nghiep sdn xudt, logistics, dieh vu va du lieh, lam gidn doan hogt ddng sdn xudt vd lam suy gidm nhu cau ndi dia trong bdi cdnh cdc trd ngai
* Vi?n Kinh te vS Chfnh trj Thi gi6i
kinh td bdn ngodi van dang tdc dgng xau dgn ITnh vyc xudt khdu. Chi so sdn lugng cdng nghiep cua Thdi Lan frong thdng 10/2011 da gidm manh (35,8%), so vdi cimg ky ndm trudc vd Id mure gidm manh nhdt kd td thdng 1/2000. Sdn lugng cdng nghi?p suy gidm do trgn lu lyt keo ddi dS buOc hdng nghin nhd mdy phdi ngimg sdn xual.
Du ljch, mpt trong nhihig nganh mui nhgn ciia Thdi Lan, eung bj lu dnh hudng ngng ne bdi lu lyt. My, Nhal Bdn (vdn dung trong bang 10 nude hdng dau cho nganh du ljch cua Thdi Lan) da keu ggi cdng dan cua hg hgn che ddn Thdi Lan trong thdi digm lu lyt. Trong Quy IV/2011, ty le that nghipp cua Thdi Lan tdng vd chiem khoang 1,8 - 2,3% lye lugng lao dgng, kinh td tdng trudng dm (-1,1%) trong quy ndy so vdi ciingkj' ndm ngodi. Theo Ngdn hang Trung uong Thdi Lan (BOT), tdng trudng trong ndm 20H giam ddng kg xudng cdn 1,1%, thap hon cd mdc du bdo 1,7% trudc dd trong trudng hgp tdi tg nhat.
26- -NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA CHJNH TRI JHt G\tf\ S6 3(191) 2012
NguySn Hdng Thu Kinh t^ ASEAN 2011 vd trien vpng Anh hudng thidn tai vd tdc ddng tidu cue cua
kinh te todn cdu da ldm tdng trudng kinh te cua Philippind gdp nhieu ydu td bdt Igi vd khdng xdc dinh. Theo HSBC, tdc dd tdng GDP ciia Philippines ydu thu hai trong ASEAN, chi ddng trudc Thdi Lan, vdi toe dp tdng trudng gidm xudng cdn 3,6%. Tdc dd tdng trudng GDP eda Viet Nam eung thap hon so vdi dy bdo dua ra vdo dau ndm. Mac du, sdn lugng cdng nghifp vd tidu dimg tdng trudng mgnh, song do thdi chat tidn te, tdc dgc tang trudng kinh te trong ndm 2011 gidm xudng chi dgt khoang 5,9%. Ciing chiu tdc dgng ndng ne bdi cac Iran lii lyt, song kinh te Campuchia vdn tiep tuc dd phuc hdi va tdng trudng vdi GDP dgt 6,9%, tdng hon so vdi mdc du bdo trudc dd, trong do tdng trudng eda ndng nghiep Id 3,3%, ciia cdng nghidp Id 14,3%, ridng nganh del may tang vgt 20,2%, vd djch vu tdng 5% nhd sy cdi thidn eua ngdnh tdi chinh.
Khdng bi dnh hudng bdi thien tai tryc tidp trong nude nhu cdc nude trgn, nhung kinh tg Singapore Igi bi dnh hudng gidn doan ngudn cung bdi trdn IG lut lich sd Thai Lan lam dnh hudng ddn hoat dpng sdn xuat cua cde nhd may cua Singapore. Cpng vdi cau d hai thi trudng chinh cua Singapore la Khu vyc ddng euro vd fkly gidm siit trong thdi gian qua da lam tang trudng kinh td chdm lai. Trong Quy IV/2011, ITnh vue san xudt sut gidm xudng 6,5% so vdi cung ky ndm 2010, gidm tu mdc 13,4% cua Quy III/2011; trong khi ngdnh dich vu tang 3,2% vd ngdnh xdy dyng chi tdng 1,7% khidn Quy IV/2011 kinh tg chi tang trudng 3,6% so vdi eung ky ndm ngodi, gidm so vdi mdc 5,9%
yong Quy III/2011. Tinh cd nam 2011, tdng san phdm qudc ndi (GDP) cua Singapore tang 4,8%, thdp hom nhidu so vdi dy dodn vd tdc dd tang trudng 14,5% trong nam 2010,
Kinh td Indonesia vd Malaysia ed thd coi nhu ngogi le. Khdng chiu tdc ddng nhidu eua khung hodng ng chdu Au va suy thodi kinh te loan cau ijhd dugc ho trg bdi tieu dung trong nude vd ddu tu tu nhan mgnh mg, tang trudng kinh td eua Malaysia dat 5,1%, vd Indonesia la 6,5% -
ddy Id muc tdng mgnh nhdt cua Indonesia ke Id ndm 1996. Vdi muc tdng trudng ndy, Indonesia Id ndn kinh td cd mdc tdng trudng cao nhat trong ASEAN-6 va hien Id mpt trong nhung ndn kinh te tdng trudng nhanh nhat thd gidi. Indonesia dd de ddng vugt qua con khiing hodng kinh te todn cku hi§n nay nhd ngu6n tdi nguydn phong phu vd c6 thj tnximg npi dja rdng Idn vdi 240 tripu ddn, tieu dimg trong nude chilm phan Idn tdng trudng (chilm gdn 60%) vd ty- 1$ ddng gdp eua xudt khau cho GDP ehi d mdc nhd.
Trong khi cac nude ASEAN ddng loat hg myc lieu tdng trudng, kinh te Ldo van duy tri duge toe dp tdng Irudng kinh Id cao vd dn djnh trong ndm 2011 bat chdp nhOng thdch thuc, bdt dn todn cau ngay cdng tdng cao. Ndm 2011, Ldo tdng trudng 8,1%, cao hon so vdi du bdo trudc dd Id 7,7% nhd gid trj xudt khdu cdc sdn phdm dien vd khai khodng tang eao.
2. Lam phat de dpa Bong Nam A Nhu cdu tieu thu Idn vd tang nhanh cua cac ngn kinh td dang phat tridn cpng vdi tinh hinh bdt dn d Trung Dong vd Bdc Phi da day gid dau lien tyc leo thang trong ndm 2011. Gid ddu tang da keo theo sy tang gid cua nhidu loai hang hda vd dich vu khdc. Bdn cgnh dd, hien tugng ngudn vdn "ndng" tir cac nude gidu "d at" chdy sang cdc nude dang phdt tridn ddu tu de tim Igi nhuan cao hon d ede khu vuc tdng trudng nhanh edng day gid ede logi nguygn, nhign lieu, time phdm vd cde hdng hda khde Idn cao, gdp phdn lam gia tdng dp lyc lam phdt trgn loan cdu ndi chung vd len cdc nude ASEAN ndi ridng. Tinh ' hinh dd dat cde nhd hoach djnh chinh sdch cua cde nude ASEAN trudc mpt nhiem vy bat khd thi: lam thg nao duy tri tdc dg tang trudng kinh td cao md van kidm ehl duge Igm phat, trong khi theo ly thuydt, cac bidn phdp kidm chg Igm phat chdc chdn se lam chdm dd tdng trudng.
Trudc thyc trgng gid ed lign tye tdng cao, cac nude ASEAN dang lo idng vd lam phdt hon la quan tdm ddn tang trudng. De ung phd vdi lam phdt, ede nude huge phdi dp dung nhidu bien phdp thdt chat chinh sach tign te vd kigm sodt NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHlNH TRj TH^ Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- - 2 7
Kmh td ASEAN 2011 vd tri^n vpng Nguyin Hdng Thu
^id ca. Tiiy thupc vao mirc dg lam phdt vd dnh hudng cua viee gid ndng lugng, thyc phdm tdng eao md mdi nude cd muc dg thdt ch^l liln IQ khdc nhau. Tuy nhidn, nhOng bi^n phdp nhu v§y dem Igi nhiing kdt qud khdng rd rdng, khdng gidi quydt g6c re cua van de hodc khdng du lieu lugng can thiet. Vi cdn nguyen eiia ngn lam phdt, theo nhieu nhd phan tich, ndm trong co cdu cua cdc nen kinh te dang phdi trien, trong chien luge thiic ddy tdng trudng dya vdo xu^t khau vd ddu tu ma coi nhp thj trudng lieu diing ndi dia. Chimg ndo ca cau kinh td ndy ehua duge thay ddi tript de, khd ndng kiem che Igm phdt cdng it ed hieu qud.
Trong so cdc nude ASEAN, Viet Nam la iiudc cd ty 1? Igm phdt khdng ehi cao nhat trong khu vyc md cdn ndm Uong cac nude ed Igm phdt cao nhat the gidi. Mdc dii, ngay tu thang 2/2011, Chinh phii Viet Nam da chuyen uu lien tu tang trudng GDP sang kidm chg Igm phdt vi gid cd gia lang vdi tdc dp vugl xa ty le tdng trudng kinh td, song gid cd tdng manh hdi thang 9/2011 dd budd Chinh phii Viet Nam nang chi tigu Igm phdt ndm 2011 td 15% len 18% vd tigp tyc tdng Idi suat, ddng thdi vdi cam kdt cdt gidm chi tieu Chinh phu vd hgn chg ty Ig tdng trudng tin dung dudi mdc 20%. Tuy nhign, frong nhthig thdng cudi ndm 2011, lam phdt d Viet Nam Igi gia tdng khign Chinh phii khdng thd giii Igm phdt trong nam nay d mdc 18% nhu dy tinh trudc do.
Tinh hinh ndy dd ddy lam phat cd ndm Idn 18,6%.
Lu lyt d Thai Lan cang ldm cho gid mOt s6 mat hdng (ddc biet Id gid luong thyc, thye phdm) tdng Idn nhanh chdng. Ndm 2011, Thdi Lan dd tdng Idi suat 6 Idn trong bdi cdnh Igm phat trd thdnh mdi lo ngai Idn hon so vdi dd tang trudng kinh td dang cham Igi. Ngan hdng Trung uong Thdi Lan (BOT) dd nang Idi sudt ca bdn 9 Idn tinh tu thdng 7/2010, chuoi thdi gian thdt chat chinh sdeh tidn t? ddi nhat ke td thdng 6/2006. Day la mdt trong nhQng qudc gia ed ldc dp tdng lai suit nhanh nhdt chau A dk chdng lai lam phat. Chinh phd mdi cua Thdi Lan dd cam kdt thyc hien mpt loat ede chinh sach ho trg dan ngheo dg thuc ddy tdng trudng vd thu nhgp cho
ngudi dan, nhung cde nhd kinh te cho rdng, didu ndy van chua kiem che dugc Igm phdt, (ty le Igm phdt cua Thdi Lan hipn Id 3,8%). Tuy nhidn, vdi luyen bo trong ngdn han sS tap trung vdo kich thich tdng irudng kinh td chu khdng phdi kilm ehl Igm phdt, ngay 30/11/2011, BOT dd quylt djnh hg ty Ip Idi suat tu 3,5% xudng cdn 3,25% dl h5 trg nen kinh te, vdn dang dieu ddng vi IQ lyt vd bat dn chinh trj thdi gian qua.
Cuoi ndm 2011, m^t so nude bdt dau cd xu hudng gidm Igm phdt, ngay Igp tdc cde nirdc ndy da quyet djnh cdt gidm idi suat dg duy tri da tdng trudng. Md man Id Indonesia, ngay 11/10/2011 da bit ngd gidm ty id Idi suat Idn dku tign trong hon 2 ndm qua xudng 6,5%. Dgn ngdy 10/11/2011, Ngdn hang Indonesia (Bl) lai quyet dinh tigp lyc gidm Idi sudt chudn tu 6,5%
xuong mdc thdp ky luc 6,0% trong bdi cdnh lam phdt dang ed chieu hudng di xudng, ty le lani phdt trong ndm 2011 cua nude ndy gidm xudng dudi 5%. Trudc dd, thdng ddu tign cua ndm 2011, ty le lam phdt cua Indonesia dd chgm miic cao nhal trong 21 thdng tinh dgn thdi didm dd la 7,02%. Vipc hg Idi sudt cho thdy, Indonesia dang no lye nhdm trdnh cho nin kinh tl khdi nhitng rui ro tir bat dn kinh td todn cdu. Dpng thai nay eua Indonesia se thiic ddy phdt trien cac ngdnh cdng nghidp trong nude nhu xdy dimg va bat dgng sdn nhd hg chi phi di vay. Quydt djnh cdt gidm Idi suat ciia Indonesia ggi Igi xu hudng dp dyng ehinh sdch tign te ndi long tgi dipt so nen kinh te khdc trong khu vyc. Cimg vdi viec cdt gidm lai suat, BI ciing no luc dn dinh ty'gid hoi dodi, nhat Id trong tinh hinh cdn nhilu bat dn trdn thj trudng tdi chinh lodn cdu. Bl xdc dinh tilp tye duy tri sy dn djnh ty gid Id can thill de bdo ddm sy on dinh kinh td vT md. Tuy nhidn, ddng npi te yeu so vdi USD cd thd tdc dgng din gid hang nhgp khdu vd dnh hudng din no luc kiem ehd Igm phdt cua chinh phu nude ndy.
Vdi dp luc lam phdt 5%, Ngdn hang Trung uang Singapore cung phdi thdt chat chinh sach lien te. Song lo ngai ndn kinh tl todn cdu xdu di sd de dga nin kinh id phu thupc vdo xuat khiu cua ddo qudc nay, ngdy 14/10/2011, Ngdn hang 28- -NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRj JHt Gidl S6 3(191) 2Q12
Nguydn Hdng Thu Kinh Id AS^AN 2011 vd triln vpng Trung ucmg Singapore eung da ndi Idng chinh
sach tidn t? Idn ddu tidn trong hai ndm qua flidng qua vide cho phep ddng ddla Singapore tang gid charh hon, bat ehdp cdc mdi lo ngai Igm phdt, nhdm h5 trg hogt ddng xudt khdu.
3. Xuat khau sut giam manh
Ndn kinh td va h^ th6ng tai chinh cua My va chdu Au dang d tinh trang mong manh nhat kl tir sau cu^c khiing hodng tdi chinh todn cau ndm 2008, cgng vdi dnh hudng ciia thign tai khien cho xudt khau ciia cac nude ASEAN sang cde thi trudng nay khdng trdnh dugc sy syt giam.
Hogt dgng sdn xudt trong thdng 10/2011 tgi nhidu nude ASEAN gidm manh, phdn dnh sdc dp md cde ndn kinh td phy thuge vdo xudt khdu phdi gdnh chju tu cudc khdng hodng ng chdu Au.
Trong khi nhirng no lye ddi phd vdi tinh hinh lam phdt tai mgt sd qudc gia gdp phdi nhung can trd Idn, nhieu nhd kinh Id cho rang, lam phat cao cdn keo dai gay khd cho viec duy tri tdc dp tdng trudng. Trong tidn trinh cdi each CO cau kinh td, phdt tridn thj trudng tidu dung ndi dia, cdc chinh phu budc phdi gidm ddu tu cdng, tang luong cho ngudi lao ddng, tdng sue mua eiia ngudi dan. Chi phi lao ddng, ehi phi sdn xuat tdng len bugc nhd xudt khdu phdi nang gia bdn hdng hoa. Ngudi tidu thy d cac nude phdt tridn phai mua hdng vdi gid eao hon hoac phai tun ngudn hdng d nhiing ndn kinh td khac, noi cd ehi phi san xudt thdp hon trong khi hp dang phdi that chat chi tidu. Dilu ndy da gay dnh hudng xau tdi tjnh hinh xudt khdu eua cdc nude ASEAN.
Bp Cdng thucmg Singapore cho bill, tang trudng kinh td cua nude nay trong Quy IV/2011 chiu dnh hudng mgnh bdi tinh hinh kinh td bdn ngodi. Xudt khdu cua Singapore trong thdng 10/2011 da sut gidm mgnh (16,2%) trong do xudt khdu sang thi trudng My roi manh nhdt vdi 51% vd xudt khdu sang thi trudng chau Au cung ghi nhdn mde gidm 31%. Sd lieu thdng kd dugc Td chdc Xiic tiln Thuang mai (lES) cdng bd gdn day cho thdy, tang trudng xuat khau cua ndm 2011 giam td mde 6 - 7% vl muc 2 - 3%, tdng gid tri chu chuydn thuang mgi ciing hg vl g - 9 % t d m d e 9 - 10%.
Thdi Lan chju anh hudng ciia lu lut trdn dien rdng, bj gian dogn san xudt trong cdc ITnh vuc mdy tinh, dipn tir, thilt bj dien va d td, lam xudt khau cdc san pham cdng nghiep giam ddng, kg.
Kim ngach xuat khdu ciia nude ndy trong thdng 11/2011 da gidm 12,4% so vdi ciing ky ndm ngodi, chi dat 15,5 ty USD, muc thap nhat trong hern hai ndm qua. Ngan hdng Thdi Lan da gidm dy bdo tdng trudng xuat khau trong ndm 2011 xudng edn 20% td mdc 22,4%. Thdi Lan cd khd ndng dgt tdc dp tdng trudng xuat khdu 4,56%, muc thap nhat ke tu ndm 2002. Sau lii lyt, cac ngdnh cdng nghidp d Thdi Lan ed the se phai mdt it nhat td 1 ddn 6 thdng dd phyc hoi, do vay xudt khdu sd phuc hoi cham lai trong nua dau ndm 2012. Ldn ddu tidn kg tu ndm 2002, du kien, toe dp tdng trudng xual khau cua Thdi Lan se gidm xudng mdt chir sd trong nam 2012 do Chinh phu nude ndy chua chudn bi cac bien phdp ro rdng de hd trg ede doanh nghidp tidp tuc sdn xudt sau lii lyt.
Indonesia, nude dugc xem la da vugt qua cupe khung hodng tai chinh todn cdu nhd cd nhu cdu ndi dja hd trg thi den nay cung bat ddu cd ddu hieu gidm siit xudt khdu, du xuat khau da tang 36% trong nua dau ndm va trong Quy III nam 2011 van tang viing, nhung vdi tinh hinh kinh te kho khan d chau Au, xudt khdu cua Indonesia da bat dau cd dau hieu gidm sut.
Ddi vdi Viet Nam, xuat khau hang hda van dugc duy tri khd tdt vi nhung mdt hang xuat khdu ehinh cua Viet Nam thudng cd cau it co dan. Hon niia, gid ca hang hda tdng giup cho kim nggch xuat khau tang 34,6%, mac du chi tang nhe vd sd lugng xudt khdu do suy gidm kinh td todn cdu. Tuy nhidn, kgt qud ndy khd ed khd nang Idp lai trong ndm 2012, khi gid cd nhidu logi hdng hda trdn thj trudng thd gidi du kien sd gidm xudng.
4. Dau tv nude ngoai - buc tranh sang vd toi Tdng trudng chung ciia ASEAN chdm lai song vdi mde tang yudng 5% trong bdi canh kinh td thd gidi hien nay va khi Cdng ddng Kinh te ASEAN dang tdng tdc dd trd thdnh edng ddng kinh td ASEAN vdo ndm 2015 thi khu vue iNhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj JHt Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- -29
Kinh t l ASEAN 2011 vd triln vpng Nguyin Hdng Thu ndy vdn Id dilm din ddu tu hap dan, thu hdt sy
quan tdm ciia cdc nhd ddu lu ldn khdp thi gidi.
Didu nay cho thdy, sue mgnh kinh te dang chuydn td Tdy sang Ddng, vdi cdc ddng dau lu tryc tilp nude ngodi (FDI) dang chdy tir cdc qudc gia cdng nghidp phdt triln sang cdc nin kinh te mdi ndi.
Theo ddnh gid mdi nhdt cua Cdng ty Tu vdn qudn ly hdng dau the gidi AT Kearney, sdc hap dan eua Malaysia nhu m^t dilm den FDI dd dugc cdi thipn ddng kl trong ndm 2011. Theo
"Bang xdp hgng chi so tin nhipm FDI ndm 2011"
ciia AT Kearney, Malaysia dd ed mgt budc nhdy ngoan muc lir vj tri thu 21 ldn vj tri thd 10.
Chi rieng 6 thdng ddu ndm 2011, Malaysia dd hut dugc 7,1 ty USD von FDI, so vdi 4,1 ty USD cung ky ndm 2010. Ngudn FDI do vdo Malaysia trong nda ddu ndm 2011 tdng cao dd phdn dnh Idng tin cua cdc nha dau tu sau nhiing sang kien cua Chinh phu Malaysia nhdm thuc day tdng trudng kinh te Vide cdng bd Chuang trinh Cai each chinh phu eung nhu Chuang trinh Chuyen ddi kinh te da giiip cdi thidn mdi trudng kinh doanh tai Malaysia. Td thang 1 tdi thdng 7/2011, tdng sd 514 du dn sdn xudt d Malaysia vol tdng vdn dau tu tri gid 10,6 ly USD da dugc thdng qua, frong dd 5,32 ty USD Id vdn ddu tu yong nude vd 5,3 ty USD la vdn dau tu nude ngodi. Ddu tu nude ngodi duge thdng qua d Malaysia chd ylu tap trung vdo cdc ngdnh didn va dien tu, udc tinh khodng 7,2 ty ringgit (tuong duong 2,4 ty USD). Cdc nude vd vung Idnh tho ddu tu ehinh vdo Malaysia gdm Nhat Bdn, My, Singapore, Hd Lan vd Dai Loan.
Cde nude Ddng Nam A khdc cung dd "Igi ngugc ddng" vd thu hut FDI Id Singapore, tu vj tri thd 24 Idn vi tri 7 vd Indonesia td vj tri thu 20 ldn vj tri thd 9. Hon 10 ndm trudc, Indonesia Id qudc gia bj dnh hudng ndng nl nhdl bdi cuge khiing hoang lai chinh chau A, kinh td sup dd, bat dn xa hdi gia tdng. Nhung gid ddy, Indonesia da thdnh vi du diln hinh vd thu hut ddng vdn FDI nhilu nhdt d khu vyc chau A, thudng xuydn dugc nhdc din tgi cac didn ddn thuang mai qudc tl. Nhung chi sd tdt trong nin
kinh te nhu ng cdng thdp, tdng trudng cao da giup Indonesia noi ldn Id mgt dja chi ddu tu hdp d§n doi vdi cdc nhd ddu tu nude ngodi. Nho nhii'ng n3 lyc phdt trien kinh tl mgnh md, tir vj lr( 139, nen kinh tl Indonesia dd tdng ldn vj irf 44 trong ndm 2011.
Dieu ndy cd dugc phan ldn Id do Chinh phii Indonesia Irong thdi gian qua dd khdng ngimg n5 lyc duy Irl phdt triln ding diu giita cdc vung, miln khi thu but FDI vd hdi hda chinh sdch gida cdc cap qudn l;^. Bdo cdo vl moi trudng kinh doanh eua WB eho biet, Indonesia dd ed nhihig cdi cdch ddng ke trong thu tue thdnh lap doanh nghipp, ddng ky tdi sdn vd bao V? nhd dau tu. Ddy Id mgt trong nhihig yeu td quan trpng de cdc nhd dau lu chpn kinh doanh tgi mgt qudc gia, bdi thu tye phdp ly qud rudm rd, phuc tgp sd ldm ndn long hg. Cung chinh vi digu ndy, nhidu qudc gia Ddng Nam A dd tu ldm mdt di co hpi thu hiit nhidu vdn FDI. Nhd sy cdi md trong mdi trudng dau lu, mdc dii Indonesia van dung hang ddu ve tham nhung trong bang xdp hgng cua Td chuc Minh bach qudc td, nhung kinh td Indonesia van phat trien rat manh me. Nude ndy ciing dang no lyc de day lui nan tham nhung.
Thdng kd ciia td CNBC cho bill, trong Quy 11/2011, vdn FDI dd ve Indonesia tdng 21% so vdi ciing ky ndm ngodi, ndng tong sd vdn FDI ldn 9,6 ty USD, trong dd cdc khodn ddu tu ngogi hdi dong trdi phidu chinh phu va Ihj trudng ehimg khodn da tdng ldn mdc ky luc.
Phdng Thuang mai chau Au vua cdng bd bao cdo eho biet, hipn nay cdc nha ddu tu chau Au quan tdm tdi Indonesia vi quy md thi trudng va sue hap dan khd ldn. Ban Dilu phdi ddu tu cua Indonesia (BKPM) cho bill, dy kien ddn nam 2015, Indonesia ed thi thu hut dugc 30 - 40 ly USD vdn FDI, gdp 3 ldn nam 2009.
Nhidu ndn kinh tl thi gidi dang phdi ddi mat vdi nhdng kho khan do khung hodng tdi chinh todn cdu, song FDI vao Campuchia vin tdng mgnh. Ndm 2011, Campuchia da cdp phep cho 164 dy dn dau tu trong vd ngoai nude tri gid 7,01 ty USD, tdng 160% so vdi 2,69 ty USD vdi 102 3 0 - -NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj TH^ Gidt S6 3(191) 2012
Nguyin Hdng Thu Kinh t l ASEAN 2011 vd triln vpng dy dn trong nam 2010. Trong do, chu ylu tdp
trung vdo cac ITnh vyc xdy dung, du ljch, bdt dpng sdn, ngan hdng vd sdn xudt hdng xudt khdu.
O Vipt Nam, FDI gidm mgnh vd v6n cam kdt, song vdn giai ngan van d mdc nhu cu. Cu thd, theo bdo cdo mdi nhdt eda Bg K I hoach vd Ddu tu, ngudn vdn FDI gidi ngan trong ndm 2011 udc tinh khodng 11 ty USD, cdn vdn cam kit chimg 12 ty 700 trieu USD. Tinh din lhdng 11 n ^ 2 0 1 1 , cd 919 dy dn FDI tgi Viet Nam.
Da sd nhOng dy an nay thuge cdc ngdnh nhu sdn xudt, ngdnh xay dyng va san xudt dien - khi - cap nude. Ddy la ddu hieu ddng khich Ip khi cdc nhd ddu tu nude ngoai dang chuyen td khu vyc bdt ddng sdn mang tinh ddu eo cao sang khu vyc sdn xudt, didu ndy ed thd giup gia tdng vide lam vd sdn lupng mpt cdch dn dinh. Day dugc ddnh gid Id mdt bdc danh vda tdi vira sang cua tinh hinh ddu tu tryc tiep nude ngodi vdo Viet Nam trong ndm nay.
Bdn cgnh nhung dau hieu eho thdy sue hap dan thu hut FDI eua cde nude ASEAN thi cung CO nhung lo ngai rang, khu vuc nay se chju dnh hudng khi cdc ngdn hang chdu Au ed gang thu hep bdng can ddi kd toan ciia minh dong khi vdn hd trg khdch hdng tai qud nhd. Khu vyc Ddng Nam A da ghi nhan tinh trang ddng vdn chdy ngugc trong vdi thdng gan day khi gidi dau tu nude ngodi giam nam gid cde dai phidu bdng cdc ddng tidn trong khu vyc.
Tgi Indonesia, lugng trai phidu bang ddng ndi Id do cac nhd dau tu nude ngoai nam giu da giam tdi 51% trong thdi gian tu thang 8 ddn thang 11/2011, gdy dp luc khidn ddng npi te cua qude gia ndy gidm tdi 7% so vdi USD. Tai Thai Lan, lugng trai phieu bdng ddng baht do cdc nhd ddu tu nude ngodi nam giu cung giam 24%
trong cimg ky. Ddng chay vdn nit khdi khu vuc nhu vay, kit hgp cimg vdi ty le tidn gdi vay ngoai td cao trong ITnh vuc ngan hdng ed thd khidn thanh khodn trong ndi bp cdc nude ngdy cang thdt chat. Theo Citigroup Global Markets, Viet Nam dac bidt phu thuge vdo cde khodn vay hgp vdn vdi ty Id tham gia cao cua cac ngan hang chau Au, khidn cac tai khodn nude ngodi ylu vd chi phi huy dpng vdn trong nude cao.
5. Nhu-ng thdch thuc va trien vpng Tridn vgng kinh te thd gidi dudng nhu ngay cdng kem lac quan hon khi sy tri tre eiia kinh tl My vd cupe khung hodng ng cong d chdu Au didn bidn ngdy cdng xdu, vugt tdm kilm soat, song ASEAN van try viing trudc nhtSng biln dpng vg kinh tg va dugc dy bdo la dilm sang nhdt trong buc tranh kinh tl thi gidi thdi gian tdi. ADB nhan djnh, cde ndn kinh tl ASEAN ndm 2012 sd tidp tyc gift dd phdt triln lot dep do khu vuc dd da dgng hda cdc thi trudng xual khdu vd nhu cdu ndi dja ngay cdng tdng, vd trd thdnh dgng lyc cua tdng trudng. Tuy nhidn, cdc he thdng tai chinh ciia khu vyc van tidp luc de bi tdc dpng nhu thdi ky ndm 2008. Dy bdo; 6 nen kinh te ldn d Ddng Nam A (ASEAN-6) se ehi tdng Irudng vua phdi trong Quy 1/2012 do vSn edn chju nhiing tac ddng ciia cudc khung hodng kinh tg loan cdu, song se tdng trudng mgnh cho din nam 2016. Theo ADB, ndm 2012 muc tang trudng kinh td cua Indonesia se dimg dau, dat 6,5%; tidp den la cdc nude Viet Nam, dgt 6,3%; Philippines 4,8%; Malaysia 4,7%;
Thdi Lan 4,5%; va Singapore 4%; Tuy nhidn, tdng trudng kinh td manh me se ldm gia tang Igm phdt. Lgm phat d Indonesia ndm 2012 se Id 5% va se tang ldn 5,9% vao ndm 2013, nhung do Id ty Id hgp ly cho mpt nen kinh td dang phdt trien qua ndng nhu Indonesia.
Budc vao nam 2012, chinh phu cac nude Ddng Nam A eho bidt, se tidp tyc kidn tri cdc chinh sach cdi each vd phdt tridn kinh tg, tigp tue thue hien cdc bien phdp thu hut vd md rdng ITnh vuc dau tu tryc lidp nude ngodi. Bdi vay, trong ndm 2012, khu vuc Ddng Nam A se tidp tyc trd thdnh didm den dau tu tuang ddi an loan cho ddng vdn toan cau. Phd Tdng thu ky ASEAN Puspanathan Sundram eho rdng, FDI vdo khu vyc ASEAN cd thd se tdng gap ddi hien nay, dgt 80 ty USD mdi ndm, khi Cdng ddng Kinh td ASEAN (ALC) dugc dy kidn thue hien vdo ndm 2015. Vdi nhung digu kidn thudn Igi dugc tao ra tir AEC ve thuong mai, lidn kdt va van tdi, khu vyc ASEAN cd thd thu hiit duge hon 3,4% FDI loan cdu.
Digu dang chu y la trong nhung nam gdn day, ede nude Ddng Nam A khdng nhiing ra NhOng vin di KINH T^ vA CHINH TR] TH^ Gidl So 3(191) 2012-
Kinh t l ASEAN 2011 vd triln vpng Nguyin Hdng Thu sdc phdt triln ca sd ha tang vd xay dyng ede
ngdnh sdn xual trpng diem cua nydc minh nhdn ldc tinh hinh tdi chinh cd sy ehuyen biln lot, md cdn tap trung xdy dyng co sd ha tdng mang tinh khu vyc trdn con dudng tdng cydng hgp tdc, thuc hien dung thdi hgn xdy dyng COng dong ASEAN vdo ndm 2015. Cdc nude ASEAN nhat tri ddng y dau lu 60 ty USD cho xdy dyng ca sd ha tang nhu giao thdng, khoa hpc - cdng nghp, thdng tin vd phdt trien nguon nhdn lye, ddy nhanh thye hi$n kit ndi ASEAN. Ngodi ra, cdc dy dn hgp tdc ndng lupng, du ljch ASEAN diu cdn nguon v6n ldn cho xdy dung. Cd thi nhQng didm sdng vl xdy dyng co sd ha tdng, ddu tu phdt trien edng nghidp cua ASEAN sg tilp tuc tod sang trong 3 - 5 ndm tdi.
Todn cau hda khien cdc nin kinh le xudl khdu d chdu A khdng trdnh khdi tdc dpng tidu cue td su di xudng cua cdc thj trudng chau Au vd My. Vien cdnh kinh td u dm eiia chau Au vd My sg tigp tuc tdc ddng ddn kinh td todn cdu nam 2012, nhung vdi thi trudng hon 600 tridu ddn, tdng GDP gdn 1.500 ty USD vd tdc dp tdng trudng cao, khu vuc phat tridn ndng dpng Ddng Nam A dugc ddnh gid van Id ddng lyc tdng trudng d chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong va eda ca ndn kinh td thd gidi.
Khi nhu cau tdng tnrdng bdn ngoai giam ddn ddi vdi khu vyc, ede ndn kinh tl ASEAN dd ehuyin hudng sang ede kdnh tdng trudng dya vdo nhu cdu ndi tai trong trung hgn vd bdt ddu
khai thdc qud trinh "tdng trudng xanh" nhu mdt chiln luge thay thi cho sy phdt triln bin vdng giai dogn ddi hgn. Do vgy, du nhChig biln dpng ciia kinh tl todn cau vd thdm hga thidn nhidn co tdc d^ng tigu eye tdi nen kinh td cua cdc nude ASEAN, song khu vyc ndy van sd ed sy tdng trudng on djnh eho tdi ndm 2016 nhd nhu cdu nOi dja tdng cao vd sy h^i nhap kinh tl ngay cdng manh mS.
Trong giai doan 2012 - 2016, Indonesia s6 dan dau sy tdng trudng vdi 40% sdn lugng todn khu vyc, chu yeu nhd nhu cau thj Irudng ndi dja ldn (vdi 240 tri$u dan) tdng manh. Trong khi dd, nhd dau tu tdng, kinh le Malaysia cung sd c6 tridn vgng tdng trudng mgnh trong trung han song chua the bdng mdc trudc ndm 2008. Kinh tl Philippines eung dugc dy bao dung vihig nhd nhu cau trong nude vd ngudn kieu hdi phuc hoi.
Toe dp tdng trudng cua Singapore dy kiln d muc trung binh, hodc thap hon so vdi giai doan 2003 - 2007, chd ylu do ddng chdy thucmg mai loan cdu gidm. Lii lyt vdi quy md chua timg co d Thai Lan sg ldm gidm trien vgng tdng trudng kinh td nude ndy trong ngdn hgn vd kinh tl Viet Nam cung bj dnh hudng bdi vide thdt chdt chinh sdch tidn tp. Bat chdp nhirng dnh hudng cua suy thodi kinh tl loan cau, tdc dp tdng trudng hung binh trong giai doan 2012 - 2016 cua Indonesia sd d muc 6,6%/ndm, Malaysia Id 6,3%, Viet Nam 5,3%, Philippines 4,9%, Singapore 4,6%
vd Thdi Lan 4,5%*
Tai ii^u tham khao:
2012 2016, Indonesian Economic Growth Highest Among ASEAN Peers.
http://www.Indonesiafinaneetoday.com ADB (2011): Asia Economic Monitor, December.
ASEAN Economies Power on. Outperforming Global Average. US and Euro Zone.
http ://www.ieaew.eom
Bdn tin ciia TTXVN cdc so ndm 2011, 2012.
http;//www.mas.gov.sg; http://www.bloomberg.com; http://www.businessmonitor.eom;
IMF (2011): World Economic Outlook, September.
IMF (2012): World Economic Outlook Update, January 24.
8. OECD: Southeast Asian Growth to Slow Through 2016. http://www.sd-aitstimes.c
32 -NhOng vin di KINH Jt vA CHlNH TR] TH6 Gidl S6 3(191) 2012
