CHINH SACH
TRIEN VONG KINH TE VIET NAM NAM 2020 VA GIAI DOAN Till
Nguyen Minh Phong*
Nguyln Tran Minh Tri**
* TS. Pho Vu tru'dng - Pho Ban tuyen truyen ly luan - Bao Nhan Dan.
**ThS. VienKinh te & Chinh tri the gi6i - Vien HLKHXHVN.
Thong tin bai viet:
Tir ichoa: Trien vpng kinh te Viet Nam;
phan tich thj trucmg.
Lich sic bdi viit:
Nhanbai Bien tap Duy?t bai Article Infomatio Keywords: Vietnai
prospects; market Article History:
Received Edited Approved
31/12/2019 06/01/2020 09/01/2020 a:
n economics analysis.
31 Dec. 2019 06 Jan. 2020 09 Jan. 2020
Tom tat:
Nam 2020 CO y nghia dac biet quan trong, nam cuoi cung thirc hien k6 hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi 5 nam 2016-2020 va chuin hi va tao da cho kl hoach 5 nam 2021-2025 va ChiSn luge 10 nam 2021-2030, ky nifm 90 nam thanh lap Dang, 75 nam thanh lap nuoc, dong thai la nam tien hanh d^i hgi dang bo cac cSp tieo toi Dai hpi dai bieu toan quoc lan thit XIII cua Dang vao nam 2021. Bai vigt phan tich nhiing thuan loi, thach thuc trong nam 2020, m\ic tieu, kg hogch va dtr bao thi tru6ng.
Abstract;
The year of 2020 is particularly an important year, the last year implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan of 2016-2020 and preparing and making momentiun for the 5-year plan of 2021-2025 and 10-year strategy of 2021-2030; the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Commimist Party; 75 years of fountling the nation; and the year of conducting progressive party congresses to the 13th National Party Meeting in 2021. This article provides analysis of the conveniences, challenges in 2020, goals, plans and market forecasts.
1. Nhihig thuan Iffi va thach thiic trong nam 2020
Nam 2020, Viet Nam co nliieu thuan lgi va ca nhiing thach thilc khong nho.
Ve thuan Iffi: Viet Nam dang va se tiSp tuc CO da tang ti^cmg an tuong va kha viing chic ciia ca qua trinh doi moi noi chimg va cai thien moi truong dau tu, nang cao nang luc canh tranh thoi gian qua noi rieng. Theo do, tang truong GDP phuc hoi to net sau giai doan 2011 - 2015, duy tri duoc tdc do cao, dac biet la trong cac nam 2017 - 2019; tinh
chung giai doan 2016 - 2020, tang traong GDP du kiSn khoang 6,84%/nam (dat muc tieu 6,5 - 7% cua K6 hoach 2016 - 2020 da ih ra); dong gop cua khu vuc Cong nghiep xay dung vao tang truong kinh tl giai doan 2016 - 2020 da tang len hon 44% (so voi mile tucmg ling 39,9% giai doan 2011 - 2015). Trong do, nganh cong nghiep chS bien, che tao mac du co dau hieu tang tnrdng cham lai do sue cau ben ngoai giam sut nhtmg van co mile tang kha, trung binh 12,8%/nam trong giai doan 2016 - 2019, dong gop 32% vao tang tniong GDP toan
76 lup"piiSiJ=*^*^''«'^*'«'''-"*^'°^°"
CHINH SACH nin kinh ti; nang suk lao dpng giai doan nay
tang trung binh 5,8%/nam (so vdi miic tang tuong ling 4,3%/nam ciia giai doan 2011 - 2015)... ; theo bao cao cua U.S. News &
World Report, Viet Nam diing vi tri thii 8 (tang 15 bSc, tur vi tri 23 nam 2018) trong bdng xep hang cdc nSn kinh te tot nhat thi giai de dau tir nam 2019; Viet Nam dang co su 6n dinh tich cue ca moi truofng chinh tri va kinh te vi mo, nhiing tien b6 ve duy tri t6c do tang trucmg cao GDP (2 nam 2018 va 2019 d§u tang tren 7%), ki6m soat lam phat, tham hilt ngan sach, cai thien dir tru ngoai hoi, no x4u va he so tin nhiem qu6c gia; nam 2019, CO sa ha ting, chit lugng dich vu cua nganh van tai va vien thong khong ngung dugc cai tien va giiip cgng hucmg dugc ca nhiing dgng luc tang truang tu xu4t khiu va khai thac tong cau thi truang ngi dia cua nin kinh te gan 100 trieu dan.
Nam 2019, Viet Nam tiip tuc duy tri thanh tich xuat sieu nam thii 4 lien tiip, vai miic xuat sieu Idioang 9,9 ty USD (du nhap siSu dich vii 2,5 ty USD); nhiiu mat hang xuat khau cua ta giii dugc vi tri quan trgng trong x6p hang thanh tich xuit khiu cua thi gioi, nhu: det may (diing thii 7 thi giai vi xuk khku vdi kim ngach vao khoang 33 ti USD); da giay (thii 3 the gidi vi san xuat va thii 2 ve xuat khau vdi kim ngach vao khoang 17 ty USD); dien tii (diing tliii 12 th6 gidi ve xu4t khau, trong do mat hang dien thoai di dgng diing thu 2 the gidi vdi kim ngach vao khoang khoang 50 ty USD); thuy san (diing thii tu the gidi vi xuit khiu vdi kim ngach vao khoang 9 ty USD); dh g6 (diing thii 5 the gidi ve xuat khau vdi kim ng^ch vao khoang 9 ty USD) va mgt s6 mat hdng nong san khac nhu ca phe, h6 tieu, gao.. .luon diing d trong nhdm cac qu6c gia xuit khiu ldn nhat thi gidi; nhiiu mat hang cua Viet Nam, dac bi^t la cac mat hang nhu ca basa, torn... tiip tuc dugc xuit khiu sang cac thi tnidng ldn nhu Hoa Ky, EU... vdi
thue suit bing 0% hoac d miic rit thip.
Dong thdi, thu nhap cua ngudi dan dugc cai thien vdi binh quan GDP diu ngudi nam 2019 dat gin 2.800 USD, ty le hg ngheo giam cdn 1,45%; trong 10 nam qua, thi trudng trong nudc luon giit vung dugc da tang trudng cao, on dinh vdi toe do tang cua tong miic luu chuyen hang hoa ban le va dich vu xa hgi dat xip xi 17,5%, cao han 3 lan so vdi miic tang trudng GDP. Viet Nam trd thanh mpt trong nhung thi tnidng ban le hap din nhat toan cau (diing vi tri thii 6 trong nhom 30 quoc gia co tiem nang va miic do hip din diu tu trong linh vuc ban le toan ciu theo Cong ty tu van A.T Kearney). Cac thuang hieu ban le cua doanh nghiep trong nudc Cling da va dang phat triin manh me vdi mpt so thuang hieu ldn c6 t6c do phat rat nhanh. Viet Nam da tao ra mpt cau chuyen huyen thoai trong cong cugc giam ngheo khi nam trong nhom cac nudc c6 toe do tang trudng chi so HDI cao nhat tren the gidi (nam 2019 la 0,63, Viet Nam xep thii 118 trong t6ng s6 189 nudc). Viet Nam ciing dang d gan miic tran ciia nhom cac nudc co HDI d miic trung binh va chi can them 0,007 diem de vao dugc nhom cac nudc c6 HDI d miic cao.
Cach mang Cong nghiep (CMCN) 4.0 lan rgng va su "gdp mat" cua cac FTA nhu Hiep dinh D6i tac Toan dien va Tien bp xuyen Thai Binh Duong (CPTPP) va Hiep dinh Thuang mai Tu do Viet Nam - Lien minh chau Au (EVFTA) dupe ky vpng se mang lai nhiiu ca hgi phat trien cho nen kinh ti Viet Nam thong qua viec md rgng xuit khiu, diu tu va ung dung khoa hgc cong nghe, giiip cai thien chudi cung iing cua Viet Nam. Ben canh do, cac FTA nay tac dpng tich cue tdi lao dpng, trong do nhirng nganh tham dung lao dgng nhu det may, da giay...
du bao se dugc hudng lgi nhiiu nhit. Ngoai ra, tac dpng tu CPTPP va EVFTA con co thi din tir viec tao sue ep cai thien the che va
\ NGHI£H eitu I 77
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moi trudng kinh doanh, tac dgng tich cue trong trung va dai han. Rieng EVFTA va CPTPP CO thi giiip GDP Viet Nam tang them lin lupt 4,3% va 1,3% vao nam 2030.
Kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang EU den nam 2030 du kien se tang them 44,4%;
xuat khau sang cac nudc CPTPP den nam 2035 tang 14,3%. Giai doan 2020-2030, thong qua cac hiep dinh thuang mai RCEP, CPTPP va EVFTA, Viet Nam co them ca hpi da dang hoa quan he hgp tac, bo sung dpng luc tang trudng va giam phu thugc qua nhieu vao cac nen kinh te ldn. Ca hgi se nam d nhiing nganh c6 lgi the so sanh truyen thong (nhu det may, da giay, do go, dien tu, nong san va thuy san); ITnh vuc phuc vu tieu dung (phan phoi ban le, du lich, giai tri, giao due, y te); cac ho trg mang san xuat, gia tang chuoi gia tri (dich vu ho trg, logistics, cong nghiep ho trg). Tiem nang ciing nam d nhung ITnh vuc mdi noi (kinh te xanh, kinh te sang tao, kinh te so, phat trien do thi thong minh). LTnh vuc ket cau ha tang va bat dpng san (nha d, van phong, bat dpng san du lich, ban le, logistics, khu cong nghiep)... cung co nhieu co hgi cho gidi dau tu trong va ngoai nudc khai pha...
Vi thdch thuc: Vdi mgt nen kinh te cd do md cao, Viet Nam se chiu anh hudng true tiep tu xu the tang trudng cham ciia nen kinh te the gidi va ndi long tien te ciia nhieu nudc ldn trong thap nien tdi, gan vdi chien tranh thuang mai My - Trung, mau thuan dia chinh tri, chinh sach tien te kho du doan cua cac nudc, ng cong cac nudc tang cao... Dong thdi, Viet nam ciing tiep tuc chiu tac dpng ciia cac xu the da cue dia chinh tri, xu the gia hoa ciia dan so, each mang cong nghe 4.0, xu the hinh thanh cac mega-FTA va gia tang tinh ket noi khu vuc, xu the dich chuyen dii lieu xuyen bien gidi, tac dpng cua bien doi khi hau, su noi len cua chau A vdi 2 quoc gia Trung Quoc, An Dp trong khi dong USD se giam dan siic manh von c6. Ben canh do.
vi6c tang trudng vin chix yiu phu thupc vao v6n (ty le v6n dau tu/GDP vin d miic cao, trung binh 33,5%), dong gop ciia nhan to von trong tang trudng vin chiem ty le ldn (tren 55%). Ben canh do, ca ciu kinh te c6 sir chuyin dich qua nhanh sang khu vuc dich vu, trong khi nin tang cong nghiep con yeu.
Cac nganh dich vu co gia tri gia tang cao dong gop con thip, chi phi dich vu logistic con cao. Dac biet, XK vEn phu thugc vao nhom hang do doanh nghiep (DN) FDI din dat. Kim ngach XK tang, nhung ham lupng ngi dia trong XK khong tang tuang iing. Cac DN trong nudc dac biet la DN nho va vua chua tham gia nhieu vao chuoi gia tri toan cau. Nang luc doi mdi sang tao chua dupe cai thien nhieu va vin la diem nghen trong phat trien kinh te ciia Viet Nam khi each mang cong nghiep 4.0 (CMCN 4.0) dang dien ra manh me tren the gidi. Ngoai ra, trong phat trien kinh te, Viet Nam da, dang va se con tiep tuc doi dien vdi nhieu ap lire ve chong tham nhiing, lpi ich nhom; kiem soat dpc quyen kinh te (nha nudc va tu nhan); bao ve quyen lgi ngudi lao dpng; tang cudng bao ve moi trudng va an sinh xa hoi; su gia tang tmh trang chuyen gia, gia mao xuat xii hang hoa de ne va tron thue; san xuit hang gia, nhai, kem chat lugng; tpi pham buon lau niip bong cong ty trong cho vay nang lai va buon ma tiiy, dgng vat quy hiem...
Dac biet, dich COVID-19 khdi nguin tu Trung Quoc da va dang bung phat d tren 100 quic gia, vung lanh thi, lam hon 100 nghin ngudi nhiem benh va lam chit tren 3500 ngudi va se con de lai tac dpng da dien ve kinh ti-xa hgi, khong chi cho Trung Quoc, ma con ca the gidi, trong do c6 Viet Nam. Dong thdi, day con la phep thu ldn dii vdi nang lire phan iing chinh sach va phan ling thi trudng trudc dich benh toan cau ciia he thong chlnh tri va doanh nghiep ca nudc.
Dich benh Covid-19 dang va se anh hudng true tiip va gian tiep tieu cue din hoat 78 I LAP M I A P /^° 2+3(402+403) - Tl+2/2020
CHINH SACH dgng kinh doanh du lich, viec thdng thuang,
di lai tai cac cua khiu, ciing nhu nhu cau san phim nong san va viec van chuyen giao nhan hang hoa giua cac tinh, thanh ciia Trung Quic vdi Vi?t Nam; lam cham lai tiin trinh tinic diy dam phdn md ciia thi trudng va thao gd khd khan doi vdi mgt so san phim CO thi manh cua Viet Nam xuat khau sang thi trudng Trung Quoc.
Viet Nam cung chiu nhung tae dpng xa hpi, nhu hpc sinh nghi hgc, tam dung hoac thu hep cdc hoat dgng le hgi, tu tap dong ngudi; su tang gia mgt so vat tu y te;
suy giam hoat dpng du lich, van tai, ban le, ngoai thuang, dau tu, va ca tai chinh - ngan hang. Thu NSNN cQng giam siit, trong khi nhiem vu chi dot xuat cho chong dich benh nay co the tang len.
Theo udc tinh cua cac ca quan chiic nang, dich benh co the lam giam so thu ngan sach nha nudc nam 2020 tu 18.000 din 42.000 ty dong, trong do ngan sach Trung uang giam thu khoang 9.000 din 23.000 ty ding; lam giam tang trudng 0,55- 0,84% GDP nam 2020; la nganh du Uch thiet hai tren 7 ty USD do giam du khach du lich quic ti vao Viet Nam va du khdch Viet Nam sang cac nudc trong khu vuc, ciing nhu cdc boat dgng du lich nfii dia... Doanh thu va lgi nhuan ciia nganh van tai, nhit la hdng khong, dang va se thiet hai hang tram trieu USD.
Dich benh con lam sut gidm hang ty USD kim ngach xuat khau nong sdn va lam rdt gia nhieu mat hang nong san, nhu dua hau, thanh long, xodi... tao dp luc len thi trudng chiing khodn, lao dgng, viec lam, ddi song, sinh hoat va tam ly ciia ngudi dan.
Muc tieu duy tri tang trudng GDP 6,8% vd kiem soat lam phdt chung khoang 4% trong nam 2020 la thach thiic rat ldn.
Khong chi thu hep tieu diing cua ca nhan va hg gia dinh, anh hudng true tiep den mgt so ngdnh nghe dich vu va bdn le tieu
diing, dieh benh con tdc dpng tieu cue tdi hoat dgng san xuat cua nhieu doanh nghiep.
He thong ngan hang chiu tdc dgng gian tiep ehu yeu do sir thu hep cdc hoat dgng san xuat, kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, khach hang va ban than ngan hdng, nhit la lam gidm cau tin dung giam, tiem an ng xau tang va gidm giao dich true tiep tai quay giao dieh, trong khi c6 su gia tang giao dich qua ngan hdng so, thanh toan khong dung tien mat.
Dich Covid-19 con co the lam dut gay mgt so ehuoi eung iing ve cung iing nguyen liSu dau vao va tieu thu dau ra sdn pham cua doanh nghiep, nhu det may vd da giay, nganh nong san...; ngdnh dich vu du lich vd ban le... phu thugc thi trudng Trung Quoc;
ldm gia tang yeu cau va lui thdi han ddm phan va ky kSt cdc bien phap thiic day md cua thi trudng giua Viet Nam vd cac nudc ciing nhu gia tang cac bien phap bao hp thi trudng phi thui quan do lo ngai biing no vd tai phat dich benh gdn vdi chit lupng hang hoa, dich vu vd yeu ciu ve sinh an toan thuc phim; Khd nang tang tranh chap cac hoat dgng thuc hien hgp ding kinh doanh trong nudc vd quic te gan vdi nguyen nhan gidn doan do dich benh. Ngodi ra, mgt s6 he luy khac se dam net han niu dich benh keo dai.
2. Muc tieu ki hoach va du bao thi tru-ong Theo Nghi quyet vi ke hoach phat triin kinh ti nam 2020 dupe thong qua tai ky hpp thii 8 Quic hgi khoa XIV, Viet Nam se phan diu dat 12 chi tieu chii yeu gim;
Ting san phim trong nudc (GDP) tang khodng 6,8%; T6c do tang gia tieu dung binh quan (CPI) dudi 4%; T6ng kim ngach xuat khiu tang khoang 7%; Ti le nhap sieu so vdi ting kim ngach xuit khiu dudi 3%; Tdng vin diu tu phat triin toan xa hpi khoang 33-34% GDP; Ti le hp ngheo (theo chuan ngheo tiip can da chiiu) gidm 1-1,5%, rieng cac huyen ngheo gidm 4%; Ti le that nghiep cua lao dgng trong do tuii d khu vuc thanh thi dudi 4%; Ti le lao dgng qua ddo tao dat
^ NGHIEN CUU I 7 0 So 2+3(402+403) - Tl+2/2020\^ | j ^ p p H A P ' *
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khoang 65%, trong do ti le lao dpng qua dao tao CO bing, chiing chi dat khodng 25%; Si giudng benh tren mgt van dan (khong tinh giudng tram y te xa) dat 28 giudng benh; Tl le dan so tham gia bao hiem y ti dat 90,7%;
Ti le khu cong nghiep, khu che xuit dang boat dgng eo he thong xii ly nudc thai tap trung dat tieu chuin moi trudng dat 90%; Ti le che phu rung dat 42%.
Theo tinh todn ciia Bg Tai chinh, np eong nam 2020 khodng 54,3% GDP, thip hon nhieu miic 63,7% GDP cdch dd 4 nam.
Du vay, dieu hanh ngan sdch con tiep tue gap khd khan, khi ty le huy dgng thue, phi gidm dan va chua dat muc tieu 21 % GDP giai doan 2019-2020. Nguyen nhan Id nguon ddng gdp tu dau tho, xuat nhap khau giam nhanh trong vai nam qua, td miic 7,3% GDP nam 2015, xuong 4,5% nam 2016, du kiin con 4,2%
2019 va gidm tic vi 3,6% nam 2020. Thu tu mgt so llnh vuc tang trudng cao trudc day deu giam, trong do thu tu nha may Lgc hoa dau Dung Quat gidm tdi 19%, con thu tii ngdnh than chi 8,2%... Mat khac, thu ngi dia mgt so thanh pho ldn co dieu tiet ve ngan sach trung uang deu gidm, nhu Ha Ngi nam 2020 giam gin 10% so vdi 2017; TP HCM gidm hem 3%, Binh Duong gan 8%'...
Theo du bdo ciia Trung tam Thong tin va Du bdo kinh te - xa hgi qu6c gia (NCIF), Bg Ke hoach va Dau tu, tang trudng kinh te giai doan 2021-2025 co the dien ra vdi 2 kich ban:
Kich bdn 1, toe do tang trudng GDP Viet Nam se dat khoang 7%/nam; kinh te vi
mo CO ban on dinh, lam phat d miic 3,5- 4,5%/nam. Nang suit lao dong dugc cai thien ban vdi tic do tang trudng khoang 6,3%/nam. Vdi kit qud nay, den nam 2025, GDP binh quan diu ngudi ciia Viet Nam dat khodng 4.688 USD, dua Viet Nam gia nhap nhom nudc co thu nhap trung binh cao.
Kich ban 2, niu Viet Nam co thi tEin dung dugc cong nghe trong CMCN 4.0 vd thu hiit dau tu c6 su cai thien chat lugng, phat trien tot nen tdng kinh te hien tai thi ky vgng GDP tang trudng cd the len tdi 7,5%/nam2.
Cdc to chiic vd chuyen gia quoc te thi than trpng ban khi du bao toe do tang trudng GDP cua Viet Nam nam 2020 se thap han so vdi nam 2019, tuong ung 6,5% (theo WB) hoac 6,7% (theo ADB).
Theo Bdo cdo cap nhat tinh hinh kinh te ban thudng nien cua WB cong bo 17/12/2019, triin vgng kinh ti Viet Nam trudc mat va trong trung han la tich cyc va du bao GDP tang trudng quanh miic 6,5%
trong nhimg nam tdi. Cdc yeu to can ban cua nen kinh te Viet Nam van viing vdng, Chinh phii da tao dugc du dia tai khoa nhit dinh thong qua chinh sdch tai khoa than trgng.
Tuy nhien, Viet Nam vin chua hoan toan mien dich vdi cdc cii soc ben ngoai, vdi minh chung la tang trudng xuit khiu gidm tii 21 % xuing con 8% ttr nam 2017 din nam 2019. Dau tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI) vao cac ca sd san xuat kinh doanh mdi ciing tang cham lai 30% so vdi hai nam trudc do, ki cd sau khi da tinh den sir tang trudng trong diu
1 https://www.mof. gov. vn/webcenter/portal/tttc/r/o/ttsk/ttsk_chitiet;jsessionid=tXtd9diUfdBmub8oJqSwx m h q 3 b m b g i — 6 9 w J B 9 x t b 8 w t C y Q B X z X ! 1322477458 ! 1 3 6 7 6 2 6 9 6 4 ? d D o c N a m i
=MOFUCM166147&dID=173196&_afrLoop=922109935320]1115!%40%40%3FdID%3D173196%26_afr- Loop%3D92210993532011115%26dDocName%3DMOFUCM166147%26_adf.ctrl-state%3Dl^zv7qe3e_4.
2 http://www.ncif.gov.vn/Pages/default.aspx.
[NGHllN Cliu
LAP PHAP.^ / So 2+3(402+403) - T1 +2/2020
CHINH SACH tu qua kenh mua bdn sat nhap (M&A). Bdi
vay, niu ViSt Nam muin tiip tuc quy dao tang trudng nhanh va bao tnim hudng tdi trd thanh quic gia thu nhap cao trong nhiing thap ky tdi thi Viet Nam cin uu tien phat triin khu vuc tu nhan viing manh va nang dpng, cai thien kha nang huy dgng tai chinh cho doanh nghi$p thong qua day manh su phdt triin ciia cac thi trudng von, bao gom:
hien dai h6a nin tdng quy pham phdp luat ve thi trudng vin; cdi thien quan tri va cong bo thdng tin; md rgng mang ludi ede nhd dau tu;
phat triin cac sdn pham sang tao; tang eudng vai tro cua Chinh phu trong phdt trien eac nguin huy d6ng tai chmh dai han. Viet Nam eon can thay doi nganh nong nghiep, da dang hoa ngdnh nay, dong thdi tan dung FDI vd ket noi tit hon vdi dau cuoi cua xuat khau; ndng tim trong chuoi cung iing, tang hdm lupng gia tri gia tang va nang cao kha nang canh tranh trong llnh vuc dich vu, trong do c6 tai chinh, bdo hiem, ngan hdng. Dong von FDI can duge hudng vdo che bien che tao; Viet Nam can co chien luge vuc day khu vuc kinh te trong nudc vd tang dau tu ra th6 gidi...
Theo Bao cao cap nhdt Trien vpng Phdt trien chau A 2019 ciia Ngan hdng Phat trien chau A (ADB), du bao tang trudng GDP ciia Viet Nam se dat 6,8% trong nam 2020 va CO nhieu ca sd de tin tudng vdo trien vpng phdt trien kinh te cua Viet Nam trong ngan han va trung han. Do la, su tang trudng cua tieu diing ngi dia, xuat khau va dau tu;
sir nang hac ve nang lire canh tranh vd cai thien manh me ciia moi trudng kinh doanh vd xu hudng cac dau tu nudc ngoai dang dan nit ra khoi Trung Quoc de tim kiem mgt thi
trudng bu dap rui ro, nhit Id trong bii canh chiin tranh thucmg mai My - Trung, ma Viet Nam thye sy la diem din hip dan thu hiit moi quan tam ciia hp. Moi trudng kinh ti vT mo cua Viet Nam ciing tuang doi on dinh vdi dieu kien lam phdt thap do Ngan hang Nha nudc dp dyng cdc chinh sach tien te khd phu hgp vd linh hoat cd the ho trg tot cho su tang trudng. Viec giai ngan dau tu cong vin cd the eham, nhung da co mgt so bien phap dot pha dugc cac ca quan co tham quyen dua ra nham gd mit that va thiie day tien do gidi ngdn dau tu cong se tich cyc han. Dieu nay cd the tao diiu kien ndi rpng han tin dung cho nin kinh te. Tat nhien, d mpt so ITnh vyc, Viet Nam can tiep tuc cae bien phap manh hem niia, nhu cai to doanh nghiep nha nudc, xuly ng...
Theo ong Eric Sidgwick, Gidm doc Quic gia cua ADB, 5 llnh virc Viet Nam cin tap trung trong chu ky phdt trien kinh te mdi:
Cai thien ea sd ha tang quoc gia, khong chi vi mat si lupng nhung cong trinh ma con trong cd nhiing yiu to "mem" hem nhu cac dich vu hau ein va tinh hieu qua cua nhung dich vu do; Phat triin nguin lyc con ngudi, tang cudng giao dye thue chit tu cac cip dp di dao tao ky nang ma cac thi trudng yeu ciu, trong do dac biet la ky nang vi su dung cong nghe; Tao them nguon lyc tang trudng cho khu vyc tu nhdn, dac biet la khii doanh nghiep trong nudc; Ndng cao nang luc va hieu qua quan ly nhd nudc va the che; Tao ra cdc dgng lyc tang trudng kinh ti co khd nang khang chiu vdi tinh trang biin doi khi hau dang di6n biin ngdy mgt nghiem trpng^
Dac biet, he thing ngan hdng cua Viet Nam
3 https://thoibaonganhang.vii/giam-doc-quoc-gia-adb-tai-viet-Dam-nen-kiiih-te-dang-co-da-tang-truong-tsch- cuc-93145.html.
\ N G H I E N COTJ 1 0 1
•^ -•:-ii :.^ S62+3(402+403)-T1+2/2020\^L^p p H A P * "
CHINH SACH
can phdi dat chudn quoc te ciia Hiep ude Basel II vao dau nam tdi, bdi day la chuin myc quoc te ve quan tri rui ro ma he thing cdc ngan hang thuang mai Viet Nam dang hudng den timg budc dp dung, nham tang cudng nang lyc quan tri rui ro va nang cao hieu qud hoat dgng. Hien nay, mdi ehi eo khoang 1/3 so ngan hang cua Viet Nam dap ling dugc cac tieu chuan cua Hiep udc Basel II va mgt so trong do eon gap vudng mac ve van de von sd hiru nudc ngodi hay thanh khodn''. Viet Nam can nhan thiic va quan tam din thyc hien quy tac xuat xii hang hoa, trdnh de dat nudc roi vao trudng hop bi danh gia la dang lgi dyng nhUng cang thang thuang mai tren the gidi de canh tranh khong eong bang. Nhiing san pham eo gid tri gia tang san xuit tai Viet Nam phai dugc gan mac ro rdng de de phong trudng hgp tdi xuat bat hgp phap; Cac cugc thanh kiem tra tai cac cang hang hoa xuat - nhap khau, su phdi hgp giiia cac bp, ban, nganh ciing la rdt can thiet de dam bdo rang se khong co hang hoa cua mgt nudc thii ba nao dugc "dgi lot" mpt each trai phep va rdi khoi Viet Nam. Ngodi ra, cdc chinh sach tien te cua Ngan hang nha nudc Viet Nam (SBV) hien mdi tap trung chu yeu vao viec kiem sodt dinh lupng, nhu dat ra cac mue tieu tin dyng ve tong the cua nen kinh te hoac cua tung ngan hang. Bay Id cong cu true tiep tac dpng den nen kinh te.
Thdi gian tdi, Viet Nam can day manh viec dp dyng nhiing cong cy gidn tiep ban thong qua CO chi gia cd thi trudng va cac chinh sach lai suit vi ting the, lai sudt cua timg ngan hdng va lien ngan hang doi vdi hoat
dpng kinh ti, di tao diiu kien cho ca che gia ca thi tnidng boat dpng hieu qua.
Theo chuyen gia kinh ti trudng ve cac thi trudng ASEAN ciia HSBC, Viet Nam se CO tic dp tang trudng GDP 6,5% vao nam 2020. Ding thdi, Viet Nam con dang dii rnat vdi 4 thdch thiic vi cdi thien ca cau xuat - nhdp khau, giam nhap khau qud nhieu tir thi trudng Trung Quoc; kiem soat lam phat, vdi miic du bdo CPI lin lugt d miic 2,7% va 3%
trong nam 2019 va 2020; kiim scat nhung rui ro tai chinh, nhat la ng tieu dimg tang nhanh va thiic day dich chuyen dong von vay chdy tir bat dpng san sang nhiing ngdnh cong nghiep, trong khi kiem soat tang trudng tm dung. Ti le np cong d miic 61,3% GDP trong nam 2019 va 2020. Can can thanh toan duang cho phep Ngan hang Nhd nudc gia tang dy trii ngoai hoi, nhd do ti gid se giii on dinh trong nam 2020.
Bdo eao khdo sat dugc Ngan hdng Hgp tac Quic ti Nhat Ban (JBIC) cong bo hii cuii thdng 11/2019 cho thay, gidi doanh nghiep Nhat Ban danh gia Viet Nam la mpt trong nhiing dia diem dau tu rat hiia hen trong trung va dai han, vdi ty le binh chpn Viet Nam Id diem dau tu hiia hen dat 36,4%, tang 2,5 diem phan tram so vdi nam 2018, qua do dua Viet Nam tir vi tri thii 4 len vi tri thii 3 trong danh sach xep hang ciia JBIC^
Trong si 10 thi trudng diu tu hdng diu dii vdi doanh nghiep Nhat Ban Viet Nam la nudc CO ty le tang trudng an tugng nhit. Vi trien vgng trong thdi gian 10 nam tiip theo, Viet Nam ciing diing d vi tri thii 3 vdi 34,8%, diing sau An Do va Trung Quic vdi
4 https://thoibaonganhang.vn/giam-doc-quoc-gia-adb-tai-viet-nann-nen-kinli-te-daQg-co-da-tang-truong-tich- cuc-93145.html.
5 https://vietnambiz.vn/jbic-viet-nam-la-diem-dau-tu-hua-hen-trong-trung-va-dai-han- 2019n2907360497.htm.
82 I U P P H A P T ^ ^ ^ ' " " ^ * ' ' " ' - ^ ^ ^ ^ ™ ^
CHINH SACH ty 1? phiiu biu lin lugt la 52,4% va 40,2%^
Ty le danh gia tiim nang tang trudng trong tucmg lai cua thi hrudng Viet Nam dat 63,6%, diing diu vi chi si nay^ Ngoai ra, Viet Nam ciing nhan dugc sy tin tudng cua gidi doanh nghi?p Nhdt Ban vi c6 lyc lugng lao dpng gia r^ vd nguin nhan luc eo chat lugng, du d Viet Nam se co su eanh tranh gay gat giiia cac cong ty, gid nhdn cong co xu hudng tang, kho thu hiit nhan luc cap quan ly...
Nhin chung, nam 2020 vd thdi gian tdi se tiip tuc ghi nhan cdc dpng thai thi frudng nii bat la: Dong von ngoai se tiep tyc tang nhd su in dinh chinh hi-xa hpi va kinh te vT mo, lpi thi gia nhdn cong re; dong thdi, su cang thing thuang mai My - Trung, eung ca hpi tu nhiiag FTA md Viet Nam da va se ky kit nhu CPTPP, EVFTA..., khiin Viet Nam dugc xem la mgt dich din cua cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai.
Khu vuc c6 vin dau tu nudc ngodi tiep tue dong vai tro la dpng lyc quan trgng ciia tang hirdng kinh te, nhat la xuat khau.
Co ciu kinh te se c6 su ehuyen dich sau sic hem theo hudng phdt trien ty trgng cac nganh cong nghiep ho trg, cac ngdnh cong nghe cao vd tham gia chuoi cung iing quoc te, trudc het vdi cdc nudc thanh vien tham gia FTA vdi Viet Nam. Cac ngdnh du lich, nong nghiep, thuy, hdi san se tiep tuc tang trudng thuan lgi. Cae nhom hdng chu lyc xuat khau cua Viet Nam se da dang han, nhom nganh det may, giay dep va gao co khd nang canh tranh nhd gidm hang rao thue quan va mua dugc nguyen lieu gia re, giiip giam chi phi san xuit. Cdc doanh nghiep ciing CO them ca hpi tham gia dau thau mua sam cong.
Qud trinh tai ca cau cdc DNNN va cdc ngan hang thuang mai se day manh han. Cdc hoat dpng M&A ciing dugc thiic diy ca bi rgng va be sau, nhat Id trong linh vyc bat dpng sdn; sdn xuat va kinh doanh hang tieu diing;
ngan hang va ca det may, che tao ca khi...
Thi trudng cac hang tieu dung se co cdi thien vdi ca cdu hang h6a phong phu han, gia re ban va chat lupng timg budc dugc cai thien. Hang cong nghe thong tin tiep tuc da dang hda va giam gia nhanh do canh tranh va su phat trien khoa hgc cong nghe.
Thi trudng xuit khdu lao dgng se tiep tyc tang manh va la mpt trpng tam cai thien viec lam va an sinh xa hgi cho cac vung, doi tugng lien quan.
Thi trudng bit dgng san se hinh thanh mgt chu ky diu tu mdi, vdi nhiing dieu chinh sdu vi dinh hudng, quy mo, toe do, can bang vd hieu qud hem, vdi tieu diem nong vdn la phdn khiic nhd d xa hpi vd cac can ho chung cu, mat bing kinh doanh gia hpp ly, d vi tri thudn lpi, du ca sd ha tdng va dich vy xa hpi, dugc tieu thu theo phuang thiic cho thue,
"thue-mua" va "mua-cho thue" va dupe qudn ly bdi cdc cong ty uy thac, khai thac chuyen nghiep co trdch nhiem cao.
Thi trudng chiing khoan nam 2020 khdng nhiiu du dia di tang diim, sau khi miic vin hoa tren thi trudng da dat 76,4%
GDP vao cuii nam 2018 (vi dieh ti^dc han 2 nam so vdi muc tieu ban diu udc chiem 70% GDP vao nam 2020) vd cuii quy III/2019, vin hoa thi tiirdng cho rieng nhom ci phiiu niem yit da dat khodng 195 ti USD, chiim ban 80% GDPl Dgng luc chu yiu va ky vpng vin hoa thi trudng chiing khoan
6 https://vietnambiz.vn/jbic-viet^nam-la-diem-dau-tu-hua-hen-trong-trung-va-dai-han2019112907360497.htm 7 https://vietnambiz.vn/jbic-viet-nam-la-diem-dau-tu-hua-hen-trong-trung-va-dai-han-
2019I12907360497.htm.
8 https://tbck.vn/von-hoa-thi-truong-chung-khoan-khoang-195-ti-usd-52224.html.
y NGHIEN CUU I 0 0 So 2+3(402+403)-T1+2/2020\^L^p P H A P *»«
C H I N H SACH
Viet Nam co thi dat mic 100% GDP nam 2020 Id nd luc ddy manh co phin hda, thoai von d khoi doanh nghiep nhd nudc va phat hdnh CO phieu lan dau ra cong ehiing cua cdc doanh nghiep tu nhan ldn (dy kiin cac doanh nghiep ldn Mobifone, VNPT, Agribank, VICEM... se IPO va niem yet tren san chiing khoan vdi gid tri len tdi 8 ti USD)^.
Ngoai ra, nhd dau tu eiing ky vgng thi trudng chimg khoan Viet Nam se dugc MSCI nang hang, tir thi trudng can bien len thi trudng mdi noi. Khi do, cae quy ETF se de ddng tham gia vao thi tnrdng chiing khoan Viet Nam. Theo dy doan ciia VDSC, cac ETF dya tren cac chi so mdi nhu VN Diamond, VNFin Select va VNFin Lead hira hen se thu hut dong tien cua khoi ngoai'". Du vay, mit that ve sd hiiu doi vdi nhd dau tu nudc ngodi van Id yeu to trd ngai cho viec nang hang.
Ngodi ra, thj trudng chiing khoan nam 2020 c6 the doi dien vdi nhiing rui ro tir xu hudng tang nhe lai suat tinng va dai han. Dong thdi, trien vgng chung cdn phu thupc vdo ket quan trien khai Luat Chimg khoan (sua dii), trong do CO viec ndi room, bo sung cong cu chiing khoan phdi sinh, tang cudng minh bach, tang cung cho thi tnrdng trai phieu, dac biet Id khd nang chuyen doi tien te...
Nam 2020, tai cau tnic ngan hang se c6 budc tien tich cyc (ng xau toan ngarih den thdng 8 nam 2019 d dudi 2%, tinh ca tai VAMC la dudi 5%)"; nhieu ngan hdng budc vao chuyen doi so, nhung dong von cho doanh nghiep dang bi siet lai tir phia cac to chirc tin dung do thach thirc dat ra trong
quan tri theo yeu ciu Basel II d nhieu ngan hang vd xii ly mgt si ngan hang yiu kem vdi ng xau nhom 4-5 eon cao'-.
Bii canh d6 tao dp luc bu6c mgt so doanh nghiep Viet tim kiim nguin huy dpng von khde qua phdt hanh trdi phieu doanh nghiep, ki ca phdt hdnh trdi phiiu quic ti.
Theo Asia Bond Monitor, thi trudng trdi phieu doanh nghiep bdng VND ciia Viet Nam da dat 4,3 ti USD vao nam 2018, tang trudng kep 66%/nam, giai doan 2014-2018'^
Trong do, 30 doanh nghiep nhu Vingroup, Masan, ACB, CII, BIDV, VPBank, Techcombank, REE, PAN... da chiim 85%
gia tri trai phieu doanh nghiep dang luu hdnh. De phat hanh trai phieu quoc te, cac doanh nghiep phai dugc xep hang tin dung, hieu biet phap ly va trinh tu thu tuc de chuan bi h6 sa, dgi phe duyet thu tuc, to chirc qudng ba, xuc tien dau tu, cong bo, dung so, dinh ra thi trudng thir cap. Trong do, quang bd marketing rdt quan trpng.
Trudc mat, Viet Nam can tap trung no luc trien khai cdc bien phap phong, chong dich theo Luat Phong, chong benh truyen nhiem, gom: Thanh lap Ban Chi dao Quoc gia phong, chong dich; khai bdo, bdo cao dich; to ehiic cap cuu, kham benh, chiia benh; to chiic each ly y te; ve sinh, diet tning, tdy ue trong vimg co dich; cdc bien phdp bdo ve ca nhan; kiem soat ra, vao vung CO dich; huy dpng, tnmg dung cdc nguin luc cho hoat dgng chong dich; hgp tac quic ti trong hoat dpng ching dich; cin ghi nhan vd khing dinh Viet Nam da co thdnh cdng budc
9 https://vietnambiz.vn/von-hoa-thi-truong-co-phieu-tien-sat-muc-tieu-100-gdp-nam-cua-2020- 2019110520483 8256.htm.
10 h«ps://vietnambiz.vn/von-hoa-thi-truong-co-phieu-tien-sat-muc-tieu-100-gdp-nam-cua-2020- 20191105204838 256.htra.
11 http:/^aochinhphu.vn/Thi-tmong/Pho-Thu-tuong-tin-no-xau-se-giam-ve-duoi-3/377446.vgp.
12 http://baochinhphu.vn/Thi-truong/Pho-Thu-tuong-tin-no-xau-se-giam-ve-duoi-3/377446.vgp.
13 https://nliipcaudautu.vn/chuyen-de/kinh-te-viet-nam-2020—2030-suy-thoai-hay-hung-thinh-3331302/.
|NGHl£N CVU J I J p p i J ^ J ^ S o 2+3(402+403)-Tl+2/2020
CHINH SACH dau trong ngan chan dich benh Covid-19
xam nhap vao npi dia; ding thdi, da chiia khoi nhiiu trudng hgp nhiem benh Covid-19.
Dac biet, Vi$t Nam da che thir thdnh cong bg sinh phim (bg kit) phat hien virus SARS- CoV-2, dugc san xuit tren ddy chuyen dat tieu chuin ISO 13485, phdng thi nghiem (Labo) thuc hien nghien ciiu dat tieu chuan ISO Class 8. Ket qua cho thay, cdc tieu chi tuang duang bp sinh pham do US CDC vd WHO sdn xuit. Ngdy 4/3/2020, Bp Y ti da CO Quyet dinh so 774/QD-BTY ve viec ban hanh danh muc 2 sinh phdm chdn dodn invitro xet nghiem virus Corona (SARS-CoV-2) dupe cap so dang ky do Hge vien Quan y va Cong ty CO phdn cong nghe Viet A sdn xuat de phuc vy kip thdi cong tac phong chong dieh benh COVID-19, dap iing nhu cau trong nudc va quoc te.
Mat khac, cdc cap, ngdnh vd dia phuang, cimg cgng dong doanh nghiep can no lyc tim giai phdp chii dpng thdo gd kho khan, thiic ddy tang trudng kinh te, duy tri va dat dugc myc tieu de ra trong nam 2020, tao dd phat trien cho giai doan tiep theo.
Theo do, can day nhanh tien do thyc hien vd gidi ngan von dau tu cong, von ODA; tan dung tot ca hpi cua cac hiep dinh thuang mai ty do ma Viet Nam da ky ket; tiep tyc mien, giam le phi, keo dai thdi han visa du lich;
kiem soat mat bang gid ca, nhat la mat hang thit Ign vd cae mat hang thiet yeu ... Cdc ca quan chiic nang can xem xet ho trg doanh nghiep dugc hoan, mien gidm nghia vu vd chi phi ve tdi chinh vdi NSNN. Cdc to chirc tin dung (TCTD) can co phucmg an to chirc kinh doanh phii hgp, khong anh hudng din khach hang, xem xet giam lai sudt, gian ng cho cdc doanh nghiep, hp gia dinh chiu nhieu dnh hudng, thiic day thanh toan khong diing tien mat, tang cudng cac goi ho trg tin dung, hoat dgng tu vdn, thong tin den khach hang ve dieu kien tiep can von vay vd tra ng tin dyng ngdn hang.
Dac biet, thdi gian trudc mit cin tap trung giai quyit mit thit thiiu ding bg trong chuoi cung iing gid tri cua nhiiu nganh hdng theo hudng: Tang to chiic lai san xuit, tai co ciu thi hirdng, md rgng thi tiirdng quic ti, coi trpng thi trudng npi dia; da dang hoa nguon nguyen lieu dau vdo, phat triin cong nghiep ho trg, ndng cao ham lupng chi biin vd gia tri tang san pham; diy manh ti chiic xiic tien thuang mai, dua hang hoa nong san Viet vao tieu thu trong cdc he thong, chuoi sieu thi ldn; khuyen khich cdc doanh nghiep nang cao chat lugng bdo quan, che bien nong san; dieu chinh co cau mgt so doi tupng cay trdng, vat nuoi cho phu hgp vdi nhu cau ciia thi trudng tieu thu va lgi the so sanh ciia timg dia phuang.
Nhin chung, dich benh co tdc dpng ldn vd phiic tap den kinh te nudc ta cd theo hudng giam cung va cau xa hpi; doi hoi cdc cap lanh dao vd ca quan chiec nang de cao tinh than trach nhiem theo tinh than tuyet doi khong chil quan, la la, nhung ciing khong dugc hoang mang, dao dgng; het siic than trgng, nhung cung khong bi quan, chii dpng va linh boat di xuit va trien khai nhimg gidi phdp cu the, nhiem vu cu the de thyc hien muc tieu kep phong, chong dich benh vd thiic diy phat triin kinh te, phai chong ca viruts Corona va cd "viruts tri tre" nhu yeu ciu ma Thu tudng Chinh phu da nhieu lin nhan manh.
v i trung vd dai han, Viet Nam can nhiiu hon cdc dot phd thyc chit ve nang cao nang lyc ngi tai cua nen kinh te; doi mdi mo hinh tang tru'dng, gia tang cac dgng lyc tang trudng mdi; ddy nhanh qud tiinh cai each the chi vd cai thien moi trudng; phat h-ien ciia khu vyc tu nhdn; phdt triin khoa hgc cong nghe, dii mdi sang tao, nang cao nang sudt lao dpng; chu trgng phat triin cong nghiep chi biin chi tao theo chiiu sdu va tan dung tii da cac lpi ich, ca hpi tir hpi nhdp quic te vd xu hudng CMCN 4.0 •
^ NGHIEN CVU j OE S 6 2 + 3 ( 4 0 2 + 4 0 3 ) - T 1 + 2 / 2 0 2 0 ^ L 4 P p | | A P ' ' ' '
