KINH TE
KINH TE VIET NAM 3 THANG DAU NAM VA NHCfNG THACH THlfC DOI VOfi
9 THANG CUOI NAM 2020
• NGUYEN HONG YEN
T6M TXT:
Ba thdng diu ndm 2020, dich benh Covid-19 dien bie'n ngay eang phtfc tap da anh hffdng trffc tid'p den tinh hlnh sdn xua't, kinh doanh cung nhu" ddi so'ng, xa hgi cua nhieu qud'e gia, khien n^n kinh te die gidi suy gidm nghiem trgng. Trffdc nhffng cd hdi va thdch thtfc dan xen. bffc tranh kinh t^ - xa hdi Viet Nam quy 1/2020 van duy tri dtfdc on dinh Id nhd stf chi dao, dieu hanh kip thdi, quy^t Uet cua Chinh phij vd sff nd It/c ciaa cdc ban, nganh, dia phffdng, cdng ddng doanh nghiep vd nhdn ddn cd ntfdc.
Kinh t6'quy 1/2020 tuy chi dat mffc tang trffdng la 3,829'f, tha'p nhd't trong 10 nam qua, nhffng trong bd'i cdnh hidn nay, day Id mtic tang tnfdng khd so vdi cdc nffdc trong khu vt/c vd tren the' gidi. Bdi viet phdn tich tinh hinh kinh t6' Viet Nam 3 thdng dau ndm vd dd bao nhffng thdch thffc trong 9 thdng cud'i ndm 2020.
Tiif khda: Kmh te Viet Nam, khung hodng kinh te, anh htfdng cua Covid 19, td'c do tdng trffdng, chi tieu kinh te' xa hdi,...
1. Ddt va'n de
Ndm 2019, kinh te Viet Nam la mdl bffc tranh d^y mdu sdc a'n ttfdng: Tdng san pham trong nffdc (GDP) dat td'c dp tang 7.02%; kim ngach xua't nhap khau (XNK) vffdt md'c 500 ty USD; CPI binh quan ldng 2,79'^f so vdi ndm 2018... Tuy nhien. nhffng thang dau ndm 2020, vdi sff bung phal cua dich C0VlD-t9 da idc ddng dang ke den kinh te loan cau. Viet Nam cung khd tranh khdi sff tde ddng tieu effc cua dich benh. Cac chuyen gia kinh te nhdn djnh, dich benh tac ddng nghiem trpng de'n hau het eac Iinh vt/c kinh le chu yeu cua Viet Nam.
nhff: Idng trtfdng. dau tffva thffdng mai; gian doan cdc chudi gid tri san xua't quan trgng \ a suy giam ti6u dilns tac ddna ldn den dieh vii va du lich.
2. Td'ng quan kinh te' Viet Nam trong quy 1/2020
Kinh te' - xd hdi Viet Nam 3 thang dau nam 2020 didn ra trong bd'i canh kinh le the gidi tang tnfdng cham, nhffng nen kinh te' ldn nhff My, Tnmg Qud'e. Nhat Ban. EU eung chiu anh hffdng khdng nhd cua dich benh COVrD-19, tde do ldng tru'dng kinh te suy giam; nguy cti thie'u hut nguyen lieu san xua't. san pham tieu dung va chudi cung tfng tang cao.
d Viet Nam. mac dii dich Covid-19 dien bie'n phffc tap. Ichd tffdng. ffu tien hdng dau la phdng chd'ng vd dap dich; hy sinh ldi ich kinh le de dam bao stfc khde va an loan cua nhan dan. nhffng nen kinh te nffdc la \an tiep tue duy tri tdng trtfdng.
So 7 - T h a n g 4/2020 81
TAPCIICdKeTlifONfi
Hinh 1: Mgt so chi tieu Icinh te - xa hgi Viet Nam quy 1/2020
2011 __ 5 5 l«,«.ptiBno.(««
! Cbifow nil coil Bgklfii 2012 ^
2013 _ 2014 ^ 2015 , 2016 ^ 2017 .
4,76
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khong rdi vao tinh trang tang irffdng am. Bang Day ehinh la thdng ldi cOa loan the nen kinh tc \'ILM Nam trong nhffng thang dau ndm 2020. (ifinh I)
Theo Ihd'ng kc. GDP quy 1/2020 Ude King 3.S2'i so vdi cung k\ ndm trtfdc.
dA\ l;i mtfe ldng iha'p nha't ciJa quy I cde ndm giai doan 2011-2020 (Hinh 2l.
Trong dd. khu vu'c ndng. Idm nghiep va ihily san ldng iha'p 0.08% do anh htfdng ciia bien doi khi hau. ban han, xam nhap mdn tai vitng Dong bdng sdng Cffu Long; dich la ldn ehau Phi; dich ciim gia cam \a d.ic biet I.i dich Covid-19 dien bien phffe tap. (Bang 1)
Khu vi/c cdng nghiep va \.i\ du'ng cung ehiu iinh hu'dng khdng nhd. chi dat mffe tdng irffdng ihd'p la .'i.2S'f Trong dd, cdng nghiep ehe bie'n, che lao ed mtfe tang Ihap nha't; san xuat va phan phdi dien lang irffdng dn dinh; ngdnh khai khoang giam ^.iu - tdng tn/dng am .^. 18% -. ehu yeu do khai thdc dau thd va khi dd'i Iff nhien giam manh 9,9%. (Bdo cao linh hinh kinh te - \a hgi quy 1/2020 cOa Bp Ke hoaeh \a Dau tU). (Bang 2)
Trong qu\' 1/2020. djeh Covid-19 tac ddng iighicni irong khien hoat ddng thffdng mai. dich vu va \NK chi dai mffe idng 3.27%; dia'p nha't cila cung ky giai doan 2011-2020. 6 linh vi/c na\. ddng gop ciia mdl sd nganh djch \ u ihi tn/dng cd ty irong Idn \lio nure lang King gia tri Ling Ihem cua quv I:
Ban budn va ban te tang 3.(i'-K,. Hoai dgng tai chinh. ngj nhang \ a hao hiem tang 7.19'";. Nganh
L^mpliiliebin ^m tl.DS k i n b If 14 hQl \ l?I V«iu Qui I : 0 2 0 iO \al cunt: k i nam 2019(«.|
(Ngudn: Tcmg cue Thdng ki)
. Toe dp tang tradng kinh te Viet Nam quy 1/2020 theo c d c6u
j Nginli'linh ivc
1 NonfL. lim n ^ e p \ a Ihuy sen V-.„.n,h,n.--=.=vd.m, 1 Dich IV
j Tbue ^.=l pham uu in/ cap s.in pbam T 6 S { ; S O
Thfo gin hicc buili
(Ty dong) 120 0S4 422 089 519 313 126 721 1 ISS 207
Cacia
10.11 35,52 43,71 10.66 100,00
n , ™ g . i
(TyiJang) 72406 260 602 2B5 9W EB25I 707 223
o unh 2010 So I'xiiquy 1'20I91W) ioo.oe lOi.ii 103.23 10191 103,12 fVguSn T6ng CIK IWtf U)
Bang 2. Td'c do tang tnidng Viet Nam quy 1/2020 ngdnh djch VIJ
—
B » k l ^ h 6 . D ^ , . l ™ i r i . ^ u o , . E Du lich 1ft hinh Dich .V khic T<iNG S6
12020 T6ng»
(Tyding) 320 926
•11 S44 3 337 41 594 406 401
3/2020 Co Cliu
316 U J 33SS6 1293 3E660 3S9 953
Quy f2020
rrydiig) 965 779 126 229 7 776 126 353 1246139
Ljoigcs) 79,1 lO.I 0.6 10.2 100,0
SDVOI cimg Icy
3.2020 104.7 '3.2 37.7 93,5 99,2
Quv t2020 107.7
»,4 72,2 101.5 104,7
van tai, kho bai giam 0.9'7f: Ngdnh dich vii lffu trii va an ud'ng gidm 11,04%. (Bao cdo tinh hinh kinh te' - xa hgi quy 1 nam 2020 cua Bd Ke hoaeh va Dau tff).
Ve cd ca'u nen kinh le quy 1/2020, khu VI/L ndng, lam nghiep va thu> san ;hie'm ty trong 10.11%; Khu vi/c cdng ngln^'i, ^ vay di/ng ehiem ''.Thue'san ' ' (Hinh 2) 35,.')29'f;Khuvi/cdich\ucii
pham irff U'd ca'p san phdm L
KINH IE
Hinh 2: Cd cSu kinh 1^ Viet Nam quy 1/2020 so vdi cung ky nam 2019
CO CAI K I M i Tfi QUY 1/2019 ( O ( \ l KINH TE Ql\ 1/2020
Tren gdc do sff diing GDP quy 1/2020, lieu dDng cud'i ciJng lang 3,07% so vdi cilng Ivy ndm 2019; Tich tuy tai sdn tang 2.2%; Xud't kh£u hdng hda vd dich vu ldng 1.597r; Nhdp khau hang hda va dieh vutdng 1,05%.
3. Thdch thtfc dd'i vdi kinh te' Vi?t Nam 9 Ihang cud'i nam 2020
Tde ddng cua dich COVID-19 khie'n liinh td'Viel Nam suy gidm nhanh chdng, bi tde ddng manh me va tau ddi: Cdc chuoi cung ffng bi gian doan (doanh nghidp gidm sdn xud't, thie'u hut ngudn cung dau vao...); Hoat ddng thffdng mai, nhu cau li^u dung trong nffdc gidm ddng ki; Ddu tff san xua't va che'bie'n chS'tao, du lich, vdn tai, tffu tni, dn ud'ng, giai iri bj co hep; Hoat ddng xua't, nhap khau giam manh.
Trong quy 1/2020, tang trffdng GDP Viet Nam ddng mffng la van tang, du thd'p. Tuy nhien, la mdt nen kinh te'cd dd md ldn vdi the'gidi. kim ngach XNK 2019 Id cao nhd'l trong khu vffc, thi tinh de'n ca ndm 2020, dich COVID 19 se tac ddng den kinh te ndng ne hdn nhieu.
3.1. Sdn xud't trong niidc hi dnh hiidng mgnh me (Bdng 3)
Do tde dgng cua dich COVID-19 va phan ffng cua loan bd nen kinh le, hau he't cdc nganh dich vu cua nen kinh te'bj anh hu'dng ngay lap tffc va rat ndng ne. Cdc ngdnh chiu anh hffdng tri/c de'p vd Idn nha't cd the' ke tdi la: du lich, ndng nghiep. cdng nghiep va dich vu. Nhin vao Bang 3 ed the thd'y rd nganh chiu thiet hai nha't chinh la djch vu lffu tru.
chid'm tdi 41,6% GDP ndm 2019, da keo cham lai tde dg tdng trffdng eua nen kinh le'.
Bdng 3. Cdc ngdnh c6 tong son pha'm gidm trong quy 1/2020
TT
1 2
3 4 5
NgapVi Irinli l c
Van lai, kha bai Nong nghiep Khai khoing Hanh chinh \ a d|ch \-u ho tii;
Dich vil luu trt va ia uong
Tlieo gia hicn hanh
(Tydoog) 5 : s ; i S0554 93540 ->219 43982
Co l i u
;,74 6.7S 7.87 0.44 3.70
Theo gii Toogw (Ty<I6iig)
21475 51446 37786 3307 25456
so sinh 2010 SoMJiquy I Dim 2019 (%)
99.10 98.83 96,82 96,50 88,96
Hang khdng la mdl trong nhffng ngdnh chiu thiel hai ndng ne bdi dich benh vdi mffc dd thiSt hai doanh thu vao khoang 25.000 ly ddng nam 2020. Nganh hang khdng di/ bdo se edn khd khdn hdn khi 2/3 hang hang khdng tren the'gidi se lam vao eanh phd san neu dich keo ddi de'n thdng 6.
Du lieh ndm trong nhdm chiu anh hu'dng nang ne nhat, dff bao trone 3 thang tdi ed the chiu thiet hai khoang 6 - 7 ty USD. Nhieu doanh nghiep du lich rdi vdo tinh trang "kiet sd'c" do khdch du lieh giam ky luc. khoang 60%, he ihd'ng ed sd tffu tru giam khoang 50%. ed nhffng ngay thd'p diem chi dat cdng sud't 30%.
3.2. Thi trUdng lao dgng bie'n dgng mgnh Ne'u dieh benh chi keo dai 2-3 thdng, da phan cdc doanh nghiep bi anh hu'dng vdn cd the chiu di/ng dffdc. Nhu'ng ne'u keo dai hdn, kha nang nen kinh te' cd the rdi vao thdi ky suy thodi, nhieu doanh nghiep khdng the' cam cff. phai ngffng boat ddng. sa thai lao ddng gdy ra ty le tha't nghiep Id ng cao. Trong 2 thdng da u nd m 2020 dd cd gan 16.2 nghin doanh nghiep tam ngffng kinh doanh
So 7 - T h a n g 4/2020 83
TAPCBiCONnitfONG
cd thdi han - tdng 19.5%: khien khoang 20 uieu lao ddng trong nganh cdng nghiep ehe bien ehe tao, 3 trieu lao ddng trong nganh del ma\. 3.3 trieu laoddng trong ITnh vi/cvanlai kho bai, hdn 5 trieu lao ddng nganh djch vu li/u tni \ a an uong.
. .cd nguycdmd't viec rat cao. Dieu nay lam ldng cau sul giam lie'p, keo theo cdc doanh nghiep >.u\
giam. nd xa'u gia tdng. ga\ dp lffc tdn ten he thd'ng lai ehinh tidn le. khie'n thi trffdng chffng khodn su> giam manh \a bat dn.
3.3. Gia tdng chi phi duy tri hogt dgng kinh te xd hgi, cung cdu bf dnh hUdng nang ne
Dich benh lae ddng dcn cd td'ng cung \a tdng cdu cua kinb ic Viet Nam. Tdng trffdng kinh le cua nhieu nffde tren the' gidi giam manh. suy thodi, thdm chi la khijng hoang kinh te khien that nghiep ldng cao. san \uai kinh doanh ngu'ng tre va thu nhap it hdn dan dC-n tieu dung se thdi chat ehi lieu, tong cau giam. N'goai ra. tong cau giam cdn do lam ty ba't an. hoang mang, sd hai eua nha dau tff. lo .sd lhi trffdng bie'n ddng qua ldn khie'n hg mud'n lim de'n sff dau iff an toan, rui ro tha'p hodc dffng lai dc quan sat. ehd ddi \a khdng ddu tff.
Thffc trang eung ffng san xud't hdng hda. dich vu thie'l bj suy giam bdi Trung Qud'e - ndi ludn dffde coi la "cdng xffdng the'gidi" - da bi ngi/ng ire. Ngu\C'n iieu dau vao phue vu san xud't ha\
thie'l hi may mdedc phue \u dau id hi dnh hifdng khi lien hanh eae bien phap phdng chd'ng dieh 6 bicn gidi. van chuyen hanghda bj dch tde; chudi cung ffng \a lu'dng cung ffng hang hda bi dfft 2a>.
Dieh benh khien Chinh phu gia lang edc chi phi .\a hgi de chdng dich, va phdng chffa benh, ddng thdi ngudn thu ngan sach nhd nu'dc hi suy giam khien do ldn tham hut ngdn sach gia tang, cac ngudn li/c de' hd trd tang trffdng kinh le'bi thu hep dang ke Dieh benh lien tuc gay lam ly bd't an cho ngi/di tieu diing; xu hu'dng tich trff thi/c pham.
thude va thiet bi y te' dung eho phdng chd'ng lay nhidm tdng khien gia cac mat hang nay tdng d>ing iM}: ngufdi dan it ra ngoai hdn nen nhu cau sff dting dicn \a ni/dc sinh boat tdng eao hdn: nhu cau di Iai. lieu dung, an ud'ng ngoai gia dinh. du Itch, le hdi giam keo theo gid cde dich vii vui ehdi giai tri va djeh \u du lich, van iai giam.
3.4. Hogt dgng ngoai thuung bi dnh hUdng
ndng ne, dgc bift Id tii Tn :, Qunc Dau tien la xud't kha'u nong, l-nii. thuy san bj anh hi/dng manh bdi dich benh. Tde do xuat kh^u ndng san bdt dau chffng lai. ed LLVU hieu giam do cac cu'a kha'u cd bien giiii vdi Trung Qud'e da bj ddng cu'a. Ta'l ea eae boat ddng XNK diu dffng tai trong khi mat hang rau cu qua, dd tffdi sd'ng khdng bao quan dffdc lau. Thdm chi, nd'u ddng cffa khau tdu dai cdn dnh hffdng tdi san xua't ndng, Idm, thuy san ndi dja bdi Trung Quo'c Id llii trffdng lieu thu ehinh mat hang ndy cua VieiNam vdi 5,92 ty USD. ehie'm ty trgng 35% trong nam 2019.
Tie'p de'n. Id gudng san xua't cua cac doanli nghiep Trung Qud'e tai Viet Nam, gidn ti^'p \i.
boat ddng XNK cija Viet Nam trong nhffng Ihang dau nam 2020. Hien khu vt/c cdng nghidp ehiu tae ddng lieu ct/c khdng nho bdi cdc doanti nghiep FDl de'n tff Trung Qudc thffdng sff dung lu'dng ldn lao dgng va ehuyen gia la ngffdi Trung Qud'e. Viee han che xua't nhdp canh giffa 2 nffdc se d§n tdi tinh trang thie'u nhan edng de vSn hdnh hoal ddng cija cac nhd may, do dd lao ddng lai Viet Nam cung se khd bat tay ngay vdo san xud't.
Cung vdi do, cac doanh nghiep san xud't phu trd trong nifde cung se hi anh hu'dng do phu thuoc vdo sff phat trien cua doanh nghiep FDI. Mac dil da ehii ddng nhap nguyen vat tieu trffdc, nhffng vdi Iinh trang han che'XNK nhi/hien nay, se xuat hien cdc doanh nghiep trong nffde va FDl d mgt so' ngdnh nhff may mac, dien iff.,, thie'u nguyan vdt lieu di!u vdo tff thi trffdng Trung Quo'c. Ho?t ddng san xua't trong ni/dc cung thiet hai ndng ne khien viec xua'l khau sang nhffng thj trffdng tdn Clia Viet Nam nhff My, EU, Han Quo'c,... bj giam sut.
Anh hifdng thff ba cd the ke den Id nganh Du lich va Dich vu khac lien quan. Lffdng khdcit quo'c te' de'n Viet Nam giam ky luc. So' Iffdng tdiach tff Trung Qud'e va Ha n Qud'e - ngudn khach ehu yeu ctia thi trffdng du ljch Viet Nam, gidm di dang ke' do viec han che' edc chuye'n bay de'n tff vung dich. Khach du lich ndi dia eung .se tam hoan lai cdc ke hoaeh,, Du doan, nam 2020, doanh thu cua nganh Du Ijch Viet Nam se thd't thoai Iff?- 15 ly USD •
KINH TE
T \ I UEU THAM KHAO
1. Tong cue Thd'ng ke (2020) Bdo cdo linh h'mh kinh le - .xd bgi quv 1 nam 2020.
2. Hd Anh (2020). GDP quy 1/2020 tang thd'p, chi dai 3.82%, Bdo Dien lii Ddng Cdng sdn Viet Nam.
3. Tong cue Tho'ng ke: htlps://www.gso.gov.vn/
4. Bo Kc hoaeh vd Dau lU: ht[p://www.nipi.gov.vii/
5. Ban Di?n iff Dang Cgng sdn Viet Nam: http://dangcongsan.vn/
6. Bd Cong Thu'dng: hups://www.n!0!t.gov.vn/
Ngay nhdn bai: 19/3/2020
Nga\ phan bifn danh gia va stJa chffa: 29/3/2020 Ngdy chS'p nh§n dang bai: 9/4/2020
Thdng tin idc gid ThS. NGUYEN HONG YEN Khoa Tai chinh ngSn hang
Trffftng Dgi hpc Kinh t^'- Ky thuat cdng nghiep
AN OVERVIEW ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMY IN THE FIRST 3 MONTHS AND CHALLENGES
IN THE NEXT 9 MONTHS OF 2020
• Master, NGUYEN HONG YEN Faculty of Finance a n d Banking, University of Economics - Tectinoiogy for industries
ABSTRACT:
In the first 3 months of 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected the production, business and social activities m many countries, halting Ihe global economy. Facing various opportunities and challenges, Vietnam's socio-economic situation in the first quarter of 2020 remained stable thanks to the timely and drastic guidance and administration of the Goverment of Vielnam as well as efforts of state agencies, departments, branches, localities, business community and people across the country.
Although Vietnam's economic growdi of the firsl quarter of 2020 only al 3.82%, the lowest in 10 years, it is stilt a fairly high growth rate comparing to odier countries. This article analyzes the situation ofVietnam's economy in the first 3 months of tiffs year and forecasts challenges in the next nine mondis of 2020.
Keywords: Vietnam's economy, economic crisis, impacts of die Covid-19 pandemic, growth rale, socio-economic indicators.
So 7 - Tliang 4/2020 85
