TANG TRUONG KINH TE VIET NAM SAU 5 NAM GIA NHAP WTO (2007 2011)
VA MOT SO VAN OE OAT RA
D ^ N G DINH DAO*
G6 VAN Dtrc*
BUI QUANG SON*
L TONG QUAN VE T A N G TRlTdNG KINH TE SAU 5 NAM GIA NHAP WTO (2007-2011)
Nen kinh te Viet Nam trong 5 nam 2007 - 2011 tuy ed giam sut do a n h hfldng cua cupc khung hoang tai chinh toan c l u nhflng v l n duy tri dfldc chuoi tang trfldng kinh te' d rafle cao lien tue eua giai doan trudc. Binh qufin 5 nfim sau khi gia nhap WTO (2007 - 2011) tfing trUdng Viet Nam dat 6,55%. Day Ifi toe dp tfing trudng dUde eae chuyen gia va To chflc qudc te danh gia la b mflc eao va la thfinh tflu Idn neu xet trong d i l u kien rfi't khd khan (thign tai, dich bgnh, b i l n dOng kinh t l vi md trong nflde, sfl bien ddng gia ca the gidi va khung hoang kinh te tofin clu...). Viet Nam dfi thfinh cdng trong ngfin ehan suy giam kinh te, duy tri t a n g trudng kinh te eao, (xem bang 1).
Tang trfldng kinh te dflde duy tri nhd
dd thu nhap binh qufin d i u ngUdi dUde cai thign dfing ke. Nam nam sau gia nhap WTO(2007-2011) GDP binh quan dau ngUdi dat d mflc kha quan, tfldng flng Ifi 835USD, 1034USD, 1064 USD, 1168 USD vfi 1385 USD; nhd dd ngfldi dan ed nhilu ed hdi hdn trdng viec nang cao mflc sing vfi eai thien d i l u kien sinh boat. Cd cfi'u kinh te theo gifi thflc te' ehuyin dich theo hfldng tieh cfle phfl hdp vdi yeu clu eua sfl phat triln. Den nfim 2011, ty trong GDP khu vflc nong, lam nghiep, thuy san giam cdn 20,9%, khu vflc cdng nghiep vk xay dflng tfing d i n vfi ehilm 41,1% vfi khu vflc dich vu ehilm 38,1%. Tuy vay, ed ca'u kinh t l chuyin dich edn cham so vdi myc tigu de ra. Ty le gifla kira ngach xua't khau so vdi GDP cua Viet Nam trong 5 nam qua tuy ed suy giam trong nfim 2009 nhflng v l n dat b mfle kha eao. Mflc nfiy ciia Vi^t Nam nfim 2011 Ifi 78,0%, thuOc loai cao so vdi ty lg chung 22% cua t h i gidi (2007),
* GS.TS. Ddng Dinh Ddo, TS. Do Vdn Diic, Ths. Bui Quang Son. Vi|n Nghien cflu Kinh t l v a Phat triin - DH Kinh t l qufic dan
46 Nghien ntii Ddng Nan, A 3/20llf Bang 1: So s&nh q u o c t e ve t o e d o t S n g trtfofng k i n h t e
\ N&m v i i c , \ The'giai Khuv\(c Euro ThaEinh Dittig Viet Nam
200 0 3.8 3.5
7.5
6.7 200
1 1.3 1.6
4.6
6.9 200
2 1.6 0.8
4.9 7.0 8
200 3 3.9 0.5
6.3
7.34 200
4 5 2,1
6.8
7.8 200
S 4.3 2.5
6,9
8,4 200
6 5.3 2.8
7.0
8.23 200
7 5.1 2.6
8.3
8.46 2008
2.5 1.3
6.6 6.1 8
200 9 -1.0 -1.5
2.75
5,2 2010
5%
1.6%
7.1%
6.8%
ill
4% 1,«
6.4%
6%
NguSn: Tong cue Thong ki. IMF vd Udc tinh 2011
dflng thfl hang khfi cao so vdi cac nfldc trong khu vUc ASEAN (xem bieu do 1).
Xet ve thflc hidn cac chi tieu tfing trfldng tflng khu vflc: san xufi't nong nghiep 5 nfim qua dfi vU^t n h i l u khd khfin, thien tai, dich b^nh vfi dam bao san xufi't on djnh. Nfim 2011, san lUdng lua ca nfim dfi dat mfle ky lue so vdi cac nfim trfldc, flde thflc hidn 41,7 tridu tfi'n. San Ifldng Ifldng thflc cd h^t ca nfim flde dat 46,6 trigu tfi'n, tfing 2,0 tripu tfi'n so vdi nfim 2010, dat mflc eao nhfi't tfl trfldc d i n nay. Mfle Ifldng thflc binh qufin d i u ngfldi nfim 2011 dat 530,75 kg. Tuy n h i l n , tfl nfim 2006 d i n nay, mflc Ifldng thUe binh qufin d i u ngfldi dang cd xu hUdng ehflng lai. Dfiy Ifi va'n d l dang quan tfim hi^n nay v l lUdng thUe vfi an ninh Ifldng thflc cua Viet Nam trong tfldng lai khi mfi hdi chflng san golf b eae dia phfldng v l n chfla
cd hoi kit! Hien nay t r e n the gidi, gia ca va nhu c l u tigu t h u Ifldng thfle, nong san lai dang co xu hudng tfing len se Ifi nhfli^
y l u t l thufin ldi, la ed hpi cho ndng nghiOp Viet Nam. (Xem b i l u do 2).
Khu vflc san xufi't cdng nghilp thfldng cd toe dp tfing trfldng cao nhfi't, nhflng tfl cuoi nfim 2007 d i n nay chiu anh hfldng ldn cua tfing gifi d i u vfio"*, I^m phat, suy thoai kinh t l t h i gidi, khung hoang nd cdng... Ifim eho tfing trUdng chfira lai va hieu qua d i u tfl kinh doanh thfi'p. Gia tri san xufi't cdng n g h i l p nfim 2007 tfing 16,7%; nfim 2008: 13,9%, nfim 2009: 8,5%, 2010:15,4% va nfira 2011 chi so phat triln san xufi't CN (IIP): 8,5%(^'. Nfim 2010, trong 3 ngfinh cdng nghiep cfi'p 1, gia tri san xua't nganh cdng nghiep che biln chig'm ty trpng ldn nhfi't vdi 89,5% tong gia tri san xufi't ngfinh cdng nghilp, tfing
Ddng Dinh Dao, Dd Vdn Difc, Biii Quang Sffn - Tang trudng kinh teViet Nam... 47
Bieu dd 1: T a c d o n g c u a h o i n h a p WTO v a s u y t h o a i k i n h t e t h e gidi de'n t y le k i m n g a c h x u a t k h a u h a n g h o a s o v d i G D P c u a V i e t N a m (%)
- 9931
46.4 46 3 47
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 S'^atun: Tnii^ CUC Thniif; k,\ Ki' hoach 20V2 va tinh Uian lu so hOu ihung ke
Bieu do 2:
S a n lUdng Ifldng thflc CO h a t va Ifldng thflc b i n h q u a n dau^Jttgfldi ciia Viet N a m
• • San luong li/ang Ifii/c co hai cua Viel Nam (nghin lan) , Lirong thuc binh quan dau ngiroi cua Viel Nam (kg)
Nguon: Kinh
19SS 2000 2001 2002 2(rtM 200J 200S 2001. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
te Viet Nam 2008-2009. TBKTVN, ke hoach 2012 ud Linh tudn Iii au Ucu. Lhoiig ke
48 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 3/2012 14,9% so vdi nfim 2009; gifi tri san xufi't
ngfinh cdng nghilp dipn, ga, nflde ehilm ty trpng 5,6%. tfing 14,8%; nganh cdng nghiep khai thac ehilm ty trpng 4,9%.
giam 0,5% do san Ifldng khai thac than va d i u thd giam.
Khu vflc dich vy cd tdc dO tfing trfldng kha In dinh hdn trong 5 nfim qua, mac dfl trong nam 2008, 2009 con gap n h i l u khd khan, anh hfldng cua khung hoang tai chinh toan c l u , nhflng v l n d^t td'c dp tfing 8,85% nfim 2007, 7,37% nfim 2008, 6,68%
nam 2009, 7,5% nfim 2010 vfi 6,4% nfim 2011, mflc binh qufin 5 nfim gia nhfip WTO la 7,36% cao hdn so vdi mflc tang trfldng binh quan chung eua n I n kinh te'.
Nam 2011, tdc dp tfing trfldng gia tri tfing them khu vflc dich vu flde dat khcang 6,4%. Du lich quo'e te dat td'c dp tang trfldng kha cao (tang 10,9% so vdi nam 2010) trong khi Ifldng khach du lich ndi dia ehi tang khdang 7,5%, sd'ludng khfich qud'c te d i n Viet Nam ude dat 5,6 trieu, khach npi dia Udc dat 24,5 tridu. Cac san pham dich vu ngfiy cang phat t r i l n da dang vdi chfi't lUdng dara b^.u, dap flng nhu c l u ngfiy cang cao cua nhan dan vfi ed sfle canh tranh trgn thi trUdng. Tuy vay, da 5 nara gia nhap WTO, nhUng cdc dich vu logistics d nUdc ta it dUdc chu y phdt trien, thi trudng dich logistics cbn non y^'u, Vi§t Nam v l n ehua cd ke hoach va chien lu<?c phat t r i l n dich vu logistics trong hpi nhap quoc t l . Trong linh vUe dich vu, cd sd h^
t i n g y l u kIm, c h i t lUdng dich vu edn thfi'p, vfin la nhflng khd khan t i n tEii ldn hign nay.
Vd'n d i u tfl phat t r i l n toan xfi hdi cd toe
dp tfing trfldng b mflc cao vfi la nguIn luc quan trpng eho t a n g trfldng kinh t l . Tong vd'n dau tU phat t r i l n toan xfi hpi tren GDP cua 5 nfim 2007 - 2011 dat tUdng flng la 46,5%, 41,5%, 42,7%, 41.1% cac nfim 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 vfi flde dat 34,5% nfira 2011, thfi'p so vdi ke hoach 2011 (40%). Nfira 2007, td'ng vln diu tu dat 532,1 nghin ty dong, nam 2008 dat 610,9 nghin ty ding, nfira 2009 dat 708,8 nghin ty dong, nam 2010 dat 830,3 nghin ty ding, nam 2011 flde thfle hien 866,0 nghin ty dong tang 6,0% so vdi nam 2010 vfi bfing 34,5% GDP.
Trong cac nguon von huy ddng, von FDl dfi cd mfle tfing trfldng kha, phan anh sfle ha'p d i n cua Viet Nam trong vile thu hut cac nhfi dau tfl quoc te'. Von FDl trong 5 nfira 2007 - 2011, nfldc ta thu hut dfldc khoang 132.811 ty USD, vfldt xa mflc dat dflpc cua k l hoach 5 nfim 2001 - 2005.
FDl dfing ky cae nfim 2007, 2008. 2009, 2010 va 2011 lan Ifldt Ifi 20,3 ty USD, 64,011 ty USD, 20 ty USD,18.6 ty USD'^' vfi 12,69 ty USD. Nfim 2011. von FDl thUc hipn ca nfim flde dat 8 ty USD, bfing 100%
so vdi nfim 2010, trong dd dong b l n g Sdng Hong d i n d i u , tiep dg'n la vung Ddng Nam Bd.
Xua't nhfip k h i u 5 nam qua eung da ed nhflng k i t qua tieh cfle. Noi bat, nfira 2011, kim ngach hfing hoa xufi't khau flde dat 95 ty USD, tfing 31,6% so vdi nfim 2010, trong dd khu vuc FDl (khong k l dau tho) dat 44,0 ty USD, tfing 28,9%. Nfim 2011 ed 15 mfit hfing dat kim ngach xufi't khau tren 1 ty USD so vdi nfira 2010 tfing 5 m^t hfing. Tuy vfiy, khd khfin hien nay
Ddng Dinh Dao. Dd Vdn Difc. Bui Quang San - Tang trUcing kinh leViet Nam... 49
Ifi, do san xufi't cdng nghigp vfi xua't khau phu thupc qufi Idn vfio nguygn v^t lieu nhfip khfiu, trong d i l u kidn gia ca t h i gidi biln dpng thfi't thudng vfi co chilu hudng tfing cao, nhfip sieu eua Vidt Nam ludn b mflc cao va edn keo dfii. Dilu nay eung phan anh thflc td' md hinh tang trfldng cua nfldc ta chii yeu dfla tren khai thac tai nguyen, lao dpng cha't lUdng thfi'p, thfim dung vd'n vfi dfla vfio khu vfle doanh nghiep n h a nfldc. San xua't cdng nghilp va xufi't k h I u thdi gian qua chfla ed sfl ddt pha nao, v l n Ifi nhflng mfit hang t r u y i n thong, gia tri gia t a n g thfi'p, gia cdng vfi l i p rap la chu y l u . Tac dpng cua hpi nhfip
WTO d i n tinh hinh nhap sieu vfi ty Id nhfip sieu so vdi xufi't khau b nfldc ta thdi gian qua cd t h i xem b bilu do 3.
Kim ng^ch xua't khau dich vu nfim 2011 ude dat 8,1 ty USD, tang 9% so vdi nfim 2010. Kim ngach nhfip khIu dich vu nfim 2011 flde dat 8,6 ty USD, tfing 3,9%.
Vl cac mfit xa hdi va bao vg mdi trUdng, 5 nam qua trgn cac linh vflc giao due dao t^o, dfin so', viee lam vfi giam ngheo, y t l vfi cham sde sfle khde nhan dan, bao ve mli trfldng va eae hoat ddng van hda xa hdi khac diu da dat dUde nhilu k i t qua, gdp phan quan trpng vao
Bieu do 3: Mite n h a p si§u v a t y 1§ n h a p sieu so vdi x u a t k h a u c u a Vigt Nam(%)
(Ty USD) * " Nhap si^u (t? USD) —•— TJ le nhap sieu so vdi xuat khau (%)
Ngudn: Tilth hhilt kinh texalidi iiUni lOll.keiioach 2012. vd linh toiin U'fsd'lieu thd'ng ke
so
Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 3/2012 viec phat trign b i n vflng, nang cao tflngbfldc dai s i n g v§t chfi't, tinh t h i n eua nhan dan. Vi^c thfle hi^n chfnh sach k i l m e h l l a m pliiil. on djnh kinh tl'vT md vfi bao dam an sinh xa h | i eiia Dang va Nha nfldc da giam bdt p h l n nfio khd khan cho ngfldi dfin, nhfi't Ifi ngfldi nghio, dong bfio dfin tdc thilu so, vflng sau, vflng xa, cac dli tfldng chfnh sfich. gdp p h l n xda ddi, giam ngheo. giai q u y l t vi|e Ifim vfi gifl vflng I n dinh chfnh trj, xfi h | i .
II. NHUl^G HAN C H E VA MQT SO VAN DE DAT RA
D l d l y nhanh qua trinh cong nghi§p hda, hien dai hda dfi't nfldc, dfla n I n kinh t l V i e t Nam phat t r i l n b i n vflng, eIn thfi'y rd nhflng ban c h i vfi nhflng vfi'n d l dfit ra trong cac linh vfle sau 5 nam hpi nhap WTO de cd giai phap phat t r i l n phfl hpp thdi gian tdi. Sau day bfldc d i u xin trao doi them mdt s i han c h i chu y l u Ifim anh hfldng den chfi't Ifldng tfing trfldng kinh t l trong 5 nfim qua vfi rapt so" vfi'n d l dfit ra hiln nay.
Giai doan 2006 - 2010, Viet Nara lu6n dat dflde mfle tfing trfldng cao, binh qufin 7%/nfim nhflng eai gia mfi ehflng ta phai tra Ifi khdng nho, ed t h i ndi Ifi cdn qua eao, bdi vi d l dat d f l ^ mflc tang trfldng dd, tdng dau tfl eho phat t r i l n luon b mflc tren 42%, gfi'p doi so vdi cac nfldc khfie, ty l§
Igm phat d mfle 2 con s i , nhfip sieu eao....
Dilu nay chflng td h i | u qua vfi chfi't lugng tfing trUdng cua Vi$t Nam edn thfi'p thua xa so vdi eac nude trong khu vUe vfi suy giam ca tfing trUdng v l lUdng. Chfi't lUdng tfing trudng Ifi mot trong dilm yeu ed ban
cua n I n kinh tg'Vi^t Nam n h i l u nfim nay vfi 5 nfira qua v l n ehUa dUde cai thiln.
Cha't lupng tfing trudng thudng do tac d | n g cua hi$u qua d i u t u vfi nfing sufi't lao d | n g . Hai dilra nfiy dang Ifi vfi'n d l ylu k6m cua kinh t l Vi^t Nam. Chfi't Ifldng tfing trudng tha'p khdng nhflng Ifim ban chi, kim ham t i c dp tfing trudng kinh t l mfi edn Ifira giam nang luc eanh tranh quoc gia*"*'.
Tfing trudng eua n I n kinh t l chu ylu dfla vfio cac y l u tl^ phat t r i l n theo chilu r | n g dUa vao von d i u tU. Cfic s i lifiu thong kg tfl nfim 2003 d i n nay eho thfiy ylu to v^n ddng gdp vfio tfing trudng ehilm tdi 52,7%, gfi'p 3 l l n ddng gdp cua lao dong (19,1%). Cdn ddng gdp ciia nhan to nfing sufi't tong hdp (TFP) chi chiem 28,2%
(trong khi dd ehi sd' nfiy b cac nfldc trong khu VUc ASEAN la 35-40%, tai cac nfldc phat t r i l n la 60-75%). Chi so kinh te tri thflc nfim 2008 Ifi 3.02 xep thfl 102 trong tong so 133 nudc cd khao sat, thfi'p hdn kha n h i l u so vdi chi s6' binh quan cua nhdra nudc t h u nh^p t r u n g binh thfi'p la 4,1%"^'.
Huy dpng vd'n d i u tU thdi gian qua tuy dat khfi nhUng d i u t u k i m hieu qua, chat lUdng dau t u thfi'p, d§c biet la khu vUe nhfi nudc dang Ifi nhflng vfi'n d$ can dUde giai quyg't q u y l t li^t vfi ed trach nhiem. Vln d i u t u eua khu vflc kinh t l nha nUdc luin ehilm ty trong cao trong t i n g von d i u tfl phat trien toan xa hoi. Tuy nhien, hilu qua d I u tU duoc d a n h gia Ifi thfi'p vfi kgm hdn rfi't nhieu cac khu vUc khac trong nIn kinh te.
Hi^u qua d i u tU dUpc t h i hign tong h ^
Ddng Dinh Dao, Dd Vdn DUc, Biii Quang Scfn • Tang trUdng kinh teViei Nam.. 51 b hg s i ICOR. Hg sd' IGOR dUde tinh bfing
efich chia ty lg vo'n d i u tU/GDP theo toe dp tfing GDP. Chi tigu nfiy phan finh, d l GDP tfing 1% tin ty le vd'n d i u t u /GDP la bao nhieu? He so' ICOR cang cao thi higu qua d i u tu efing thfi'p; ngupe lai, ICOR cfing thfi'p thi higu qua d i u tU cfing cao. Thflc t l ICOR cua Vigt Nam eao hdn nhilu so vdi cfic nUdc. Nfim 2011, vdi chfnh sach kilm e h i lam phat. I n dinh kinh t l v! md vfi bao dam an sinh xa hdi, v6h d i u t u phfit t r i l n tofin xfi hpi so vdi GDP dat b mfle thfi'p 34,5% nhflng h$ sd' ICOR v l n d mflc eao 5,7 l l n . Trong khi ICOR eua Vipt Nam tfnh chung trong thdi k j 1991- 2011 Ifi 5 lan thi cua Dai Loan thdi ky 1961- 1980 la 2,7 lln, cua Han Qud'c thdi k^ 1961 - 1980 la 3,0 lan, eua Indonesia thdi k^ 1981 - 1995 la 3,7 l l n , eua Trung Qud'c thdi k^
2001 - 2006 Ifi 4,0 lan, cua Thai Lan thdi ky 1981 - 1985 Ifi 4,1 l l n , ciia Malaysia thdi ky 1981 - 1995 Ifi 4,6 lan... Dilu dd ehflng td hifiu qua d i u tfl eua Viet Nam edn thfi'p hdn eua cfic nflde trong khu vflc vfi tren t h i gidi, do dd sfle canh tranh cua hang hda Vidt Nam y l u hdn hfing hda cua cac nflde trgn the gidi. Higu qua dau tfl b nfldc ta thfi'p Ifi do rfi't n h i l u nguyen nhan.
Rigng doi vdi v6n d i u tU khu vUc nhfi nfldc thfldng bi dfin trai, quy hogch, k l hoach trong d i u tfl cdn n h i l u ba't c|ip, ehi phf giai phdng mfit bfing ldn, thi cdng qua cham, keo dfii, ty II tha't thoat lang phi lai ldn...nhieu hang mue cdng trinh Idn chat lUdng thap, xua't hien hU hdng ngay khi vfla khfinh thfinh'^*, n h i l u cdng trinh giao thdng vfla mdi dua vao sfl dung da hU hdng , xuong ca'p t r i m trpng'" lara t h i l t
hai ldn cho ngfin sach Nhfi nUdc nhUng vipe xfl ly trfich nhiem cae ea nhan, ddn vi lien quan chfla kip thdi. Chfnh nhflng dilu nay la nguygn nhan cua tham nhung va lang phf kgo dai trong nIn kinh t l Viet Nam.
Nfing sufi't lao ddng Viet Nam hign tai cdn tha'p, ddng gop vao tang trudng cdn h^n che. Nam 2011, nang sufit lao dpng binh quan eiia Viet Nam theo gia thflc te n l u tfhh b l n g USD mdi dat khoang 2.400USD/ngfldi, cdn thfi'p thua xa so vdi mflc nfing sufi't lao ddng nfim 2005 cua nhilu nflde trong khu vfle, eu the con so tfldng flng lan Ifldt Ifi Indonesia 2650USD, Philipines 2689 USD, Thai Lan 2.721USD, CHND Trung Hoa 2.869USD, Malaysia 12.571USD, Han Quoc 33.237USD, Singapore 48.162USD, Brunei 51.500USD vfi Nh^it Ban 70.237USD... Trong dilu kien toe do tfing trfldng kinh te trong hai nfim d i u (2007 vfi 2008) gia nhfip WTO Ifi tfldng ddi kha quan nhflng nfing sufi't lao dpng eua nen kinh t l v i n khdng dflde cai thign nhilu thi sfl suy giam va chflng lai cua td'c dd tang trfldng kinh te nam 2009 va ed the trong rapt vfii nfim tdi se cdn Ifim cham hdn nfla t i c dd tang nfing sufi't lao ddng Vigt Nam.
Trong cdng nghidp, ngfinh khai thac, gia cdng v l n ehilm ty trpng tdn, ehUa phat t r i l n dUdc nhieu ngfinh ed gifi tri gia tfing ldn vfi sfle eanh tranh eao. Chi pM trung gian chiem ty trpng cao Ifim giam ty trpng gifi tri gia tfing them trong tong gia tri san xua't. Cac nganh chfim sfl dung cong nghe tign tiln, san p h l m cd ham Ifldng cdng nghd vfi chfi't xam cao cdn rfi't
52 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 3/2012 tha'p lam cho trong tong kim ngach x u l t
khau hang hda cua V i | t Nam, ty trpng gia tri gia tfing them qua thfi'p, gia cdng va xua't k h I u thd la ehu ylu.
Nong nghiep tuy dat dflde n h i l u thanh tflu nhflng ty Ip hang nong san qua e h i biln cdn tha'p; cdng n g h i c h i b i l n vfi cong nghe sau thu ho^ch cdn lac hau, h^ thong kho dfl trfl vfla thig'u lai vfla yg'u lam cho ty le ton tha't va gia thfinh san xufi't ndng nghiep cdn b mflc eao*"', h^n c h i sfle c^nh tranh cua hfing ndng san Vipt Nam tren thi trfldng. Vipe dfla tiln bd khoa hpc cdng nghe vfio san xufi't ndng nghiep cdn chfim.
Viec quy hoaeh quan ly vfi sfl dung da't trlng lua b nhieu dia phfldng cdn nhieu ba't cfip, ng'u khdng dflde kiem sofit se a n h hudng d i n an ninh lUdng thUe ciia Vi$t Nam trong tUdng lai.
Chuyen dich cd cfi'u kinh te' thdi gian qua cdn chfim, khong dat so vdi k l hoaeh 2006 - 2010, edn ty trpng cfic ngfinh ndng, Ifim, ngu nghigp; cdng nghigp - xay dung vfi dich vu trong GDP nfim 2011 cua Vi$t Nam udc thfle hign tfldng flng mdi dat 20,9%; 41,0% vfi 38,1%, trong khi theo k l hoach. cae ty trpng tfldng flng eIn dat dfl^e Ifi: 19,8%; 41,2% vfi 39%. Neu so sanh vdi nhilu nfldc trong khu vUe thi ed cfi'u kinh tl' nude ta chuyin dich cdn chfim, ndng, lam va ngfl nghiep edn eao, khu vfle dich vu k^m phat triln, ehilm ty trong cdn qua khiem ton. Dieu dd chflng td cae dich vu eao cfi'p nhfl tfii chfnh, ngfin hfing, logis- tics, tu va'n, khoa hpc cong nghp... ehfla phat trien; hfim Ifldng cdng nghp tri thflc trong dich vu cdn thfi'p. Dau t u phat t r i l n dich vu thdi gian qua qua han c h i vfi chfla
dfl^c quan tam dung mflc, ngay ea cfic dich vy logistics cung chfla h i cd ke hoach phat triln, Ifim eho kha nfing hdi nhfip eiia ca ngfinh dich vy V i | t Nam Ifi rfi't ylu.
Nh^p silu idn Ifim anh hfldng din cac can d^i vT rad, d i n g thdi t h i hiln Viet Nam ehfla tfin dicing dfldc cfic cd hpi mang lai tfl hpi nh^p kinh t l q u o c t l . Sau 5 nfim gia nhfip WTO, mfle tham h u t thfldng mai Vjgt Nam v l n b mflc cao, ty trpng ciia thfim hut thfldng mai tren GDP vfi trgn t i n g kim ngach xufi't k h I u ciia Vigt Nam cung trgn 2 eon so'. Dilu nay chflng to cac nflde da tfin dung td't ed hdi trong hdi nhfip WTO d l dUa hfing hda vfio Vilt Nam ngay efing nhilu, trong khi Viet Nam tai chfla tan dung t i t cd hpi tfl hdi nhap WTO mang lai, san xufi't kinh doanh lai chfla theo dung quy t i c thi trudng, ntiilu linh vuc cdn dudc bao hd, ddc q u y l n duy tri tfl nhieu nfim nay lam eho chfi't Ifldng va hieu qua san xufi't kinh doanh thfi'p, that thoat ngfin sfich Nhfi nUdc vfi gay thiet hai ldn eho ngudi tieu dflng. Day Ifi va'n de dang quan tam ldn hien nay.
Nfira nfira hdi n h a p WTO, n I n kinh t l Vi^t Nam ed nhflng budc phat trien dang mflng, nhfi't ta trong bdi eanh khiing hoang tfii chfnh vfi suy thoai toan clu tfl nam 2007- 2009, thara h u t ngfin sfich va khiing hoang nd cdng 5 eae n I n kinh tlldn nhu Hoa Ky, EU, Nhfit Ban.... Tuy vay, cai gifi phai tra cho tfing trudng cdn cao, chfi't Ifldng tfing trfldng kinh t l trong giai doan nfiy chfla dflde cai thign dfin din hi?u qua tha'p, tfing trfldng kinh t l phat t r i l n thieu ben vflng, n h i l u vfi'n d$ bite xuc ve xfi hpi, radi trudng ehua dudc giai
Ddng Dinh Dao, Dd Vdn Difc, Bin Quang Scm - Tdng truang kinh teViel Nam... 53 quyet td't. Vi vfiy, can phai cd nhflng cai
each, nhflng chfnh sfich ddt phfi trong cfic linh vfle kinh t l - xa hpi. phai tdn trpng cae quy lufit eua kinh te' thi trudng, dfie bigt ta quy lufit canh t r a n h , quy lufit gia tri, d i n g thdi phai cd nhflng bidn phap cfldng quyet, thie't Ifip trfit tfl, ky cfldng phap nudc trong san xufi't, kinh doanh vfi xay dflng thi mdi ed thg thflc hign dfldc mue tigu dUa nude ta trd thfinh nfldc cdng nghigp theo hfldng hidn dai vfio nfim 2020 nhfl Nghi quyet Dai hpi Dang dfi d l ra, thilt nghi nen tap t r u n g vfio rapt sd' vfi'n d l sau:
1. De trfinh t u t h a u ngay cfing xa so vdi eac nfldc trong khu vflc c I n n h a n h chdng ed cfi'u lai cac ngfinh va eac Iinh vflc kinh t l theo hudng c h u y i n sang mo hinh tfing trudng: chfi't lUdng - hieu qua - b i n vflng mfi mue tieu Ifi tai cfi'u true lai n I n kinh te. Muon vfiy, can phai thUe hien eae biSn phap d i n g bp nhu: i. Doi mdi chfnh sach tfii chinh, t i l n te linh hoat theo hudng thuc day xufi't khau, giam nhap sigu, tao dieu kien cho eae doanh nghiep tiep can cae nguon von d l day m a n h san xua't kinh doanh; ii. Can dac bigt ehu y den cha't Ifldng tang trfldng va k i l m e h i lam phat hi^u qua hdn vfi cung cd" long tin cua dan vfio cae chinh sach hidn hfinh; iii. Chuyen dich ed ca'u kinh te viing, dia phfldng va ndi bd eac nganh; p h a t huy moi nguIn luc, triet de thUe h a n h t i l t kiem, tao n I n tang phat t r i l n eho n I n kinh tl'; iv. P h a n dinh ro quan ly nhfi nUde va quan ly kinh doanh, nfing eao t i n h tfl chu, tfl chiu trfich nhiem cua cae can bd quan ly cae ea'p trong cae q u y l t dinh, d i l u hfinh eua minh
trudc Dang, trfldc nhfin dfin....
2. Tilp tuc cai each hfinh ehinh tridt dl, doi mdi bp may hfinh chfnh nhfi nfldc.
phdng chong tham nhung cfldng quylt, higu qua vfi ed trfich nhiem. Dilu nay ddi hoi phai: i. Ddn gian hda, rflt n g l n thdi gian ddl vdi thu tyc hanh clu'nh thfle cha't, thong thofing, minh bach v l d i u tu, vay vd'n, cfi'p phgp kinh doanh, xufi't nhap khau, hai quan; ii. Tang cUdng va nang eao tiipu qua cing tac kiem tra, kiem soat thi trUdng, tam lanh manh hda mdi trUdng kinh doanh, phai thfle sfl ton trpng cac quy luat ciia kinh t l thi trfldng, cIn sdm dd bd sfl bao hd, ddc quyln trong mdt s i tinh vflc nhilu nfim nay b nudc ta nhfl didn, nfldc, kinh doanh xfing dau, san xufi't d td...; iii.
Thflc sfl tao ra bfldc dot phfi v l cha't trong cdng tac phdng chd'ng tham nhung.
3. Can sdm xay dflng cliiln Ifldc phat t r i l n Logistics d Viet Nam, giai doan 2011 - 2020 va tam nhin 2030, trong dd, vfi'n d$
cot loi Ifi phai tai ed ca'u cfic loai dich vu Logistics theo hfldng tap trung nhflng dich vu ed tilm nfing, ldi t h i , cfic dich vu ed gifi tri gia tang cao va phat trien Logistics xanh, phat t r i l n dong bo hg thong logistics cang b i l n Vipt Nam.
4. U"u tign d i u tfl ptxat t r i l n he thong logistics cua Vi$t Nara, bao gom: ed sd h?L t i n g logistics, t h i che phap lu^t v l phat t r i l n dich vy Logistics, phat t r i l n cac doanh nghidp eung flng vfi sb. dung dich vu logistics... nhfim nang cao hieu qua vfi thflc d l y cfic hoat dpng xufi't nhap khau vfi hoat ddng thUdng mai ndi ehung trong hdi nhfip quoc t l .
54 Nghien cUu Ddng Nam A 3/2012 5. Tfing cudng nghien cflu thj trUdng
nude ngofii va h^ thl^ng phfip lu^t eiia eac thi trudng chii ylu, d^c bi^t Ifi h$ t h i n g rao can ky thu^t, coi dfiy la bi^n phap quan trpng giflp efie doanh nghiep nUde ta thuc d l y xufi't k h I u , t | n dyng t i t thdi ed khi Vi^t Nam bude vfio nfim thfl 6 - t h a n h vien eua WTO.
6. Cflng vdi vi^c d l i mdi t h i c h i , hofin thi$n h^ t h i n g chfnh sfich n h l m phat t r i l n cae m^t hfing xufi't k h I u chii lfle, dong thdi ed 1| trinh, thdi gian vfi b i | n phap d l chuyin d i n tfl gia cdng sang san xufi't, t u xufi't k h I u . Giam vfi t i l n tdi h a n che mfle thfi'p nhfi't xufi't k h I u san p h i r a thd, khoang san; tfing xufi't k h I u san p h l m tinh c h i , cd hfim lUdng khoa hpc - cdng nghe eao, cd gia tri gia tfing eao. Day la bi^n phap dUdc coi la mang tinh dot pha trong xua't k h I u thdi gian tdi de Viet Nara vdi hdn 87 trieu dan sdm vUdn l l n ngang tam vdi eac nUdc trong khu vflc va t r l n the gidi.Chu trpng p h a t trien thi trudng trong nude.
7. CIn thay dd'i tu duy mdt chilu: "Nop thue Id nghia vu Id quyin lai cua mpi ngUdi ddn" hay "NgUdi nop thui'Id cdng ddn trung thUc, Id cdng ddn cd track nhiim nhat..." b l n g tU duy radi sd'ng eflng tren eae pand, apphieh doc cac xa !§ hi§n nay: "Ngudi sU dung lang phi vd lam thdt thodt ngdn sack nhd nUdc Id co tdi vdi ddn, CO tpi vdi to qudc" hay "Cdn bp Ddng viin- Cong bpc cua ddn md Idm that thodt vd lang phi tien Ngdn sack Nhd nUdc Id co tpi vdi nkdn ddn, vdi td quoc". Dilu nay se gdp p h l n phdng chong tham nhung va giara nhap sieu, giam ap lUc ten can can t h a n h
toan, dy trfl ngo^i hoi vfi tri gia VNDAJSD.../.
C H U T H I C H 1. Gia diu thd dgit mflc ky lye 147,2 USD/
thflng vao gifla thang 7/2008, gia gao d^t 1200USD/tln vao thang 5/2008.
2. Chi tigu nfim 2010, chi tigu nfiy la 9,3%
3. Nfim 2010 FDl tfnh din 21/12/2010 vi nflm 2011 slli^u tfnh din bet tbfing 11/2011 4. Nam 2010 nfing lye c^nh tranh ciia Vi$t
nam dfi tfing 16 bfic so vdi nfim 2009, xIp thfl 59 trong tong s i 139 nIn kinh tidflflc xIp h^ng. Tuy nhign so vdi cac nu6c trong khu vyc, nfing lye c^nh tranh ciia Vi$t Nam tha'p hdn h l u h i t cac quoc gia niy;
Singapore xIp hang thfl 3; Malaysia: 26;
Trung QuIc: 27; Brunei: 28; Thailand: 38;
Indonesia: 44. Bao cao ciia Chfnh phu so 206/BC-CP ngay 16/10/2011.
5. Bao cao Chinh phu s i 206/BC- CP ngay 16/10/2011
6. Bao Ha N | i mdi, ngay 26/7/2011 7. Bao Nhfin dan, ngay 14/12/2011 8. Hi$n nay ty Ip ton thfit doi vdi lua g^io 1ft 11
- 13%; ngd 13 - 15%; thuy san, rau qua:
20% - TBKTVN 11/11/2009.
T A I L I E U T H A M KHAO 1. Kinh t l Vi$t Nam sau 3 nfim gia nh^p
WTO (2007 - 2009), NXB DHKTQD, 2010.
2. Logistics - Nhiing vfi'n dl ly lu^n va thi?c tiln a Vi§t Nam, NXB DHKTQD, nam 2011 3. Tinh binh kinh t l xfi h | i nfim 2010 vfi Kl hogicb 2011 - Bg Ke ho^ieh va Diu tfl, ngay 17/10/2010.
4. Tinh hinh kinh t l - xa hpi nam 2011, Itl hootch phat triln kinh tg'-xfi hpi nfim 2012 vfi 5 nfim 2011-2015, ngay 19/10/2011.
