VlTCfT KHO DU BAO KINH TE THE GI61 NAM 2020 VA GIAI PHAP GIUP VIET NAM

KINK TE. DU BAO KINH TE THE GI61 NAM 2020 VA GIAI PHAP GIUP VIET NAM VlTCfT KHO » PHAM THI THU HA. TOM TAT: Ndm 2019, hau he't cac nen kinh te'ldn tren the gidi deu dd'i mat vdi nguv cdrui ro tdng cao khid'n cho trien vgng nam 2020 cang them ba't on, dac biet trong bd'i canh dich \ iem difdng ho hap cap Covid-19 dang lan rgng tren toan cau. Viet Nam cung khong difng ngoai anh hu'dng ndy. Bdi vie't dir bao bien dong nen kinh te the'gidi va Viet Nam nam 2020. dong thdi du'a ra gidi phdp giup nu'dc ta vifdt khd de dat du'de cac muc lieu de ra. Tir khoa: Kinh te the gidi, GDP, CPI,Covid-19.. l.DUbao tinh hinh kinh te'thS'gidi nam 2020 Trong bdo cdo Trien vong Kinh le'Thegidi cudi ndm 2019. Quy Tien te Quoc te (IMF) td ra lac quan khi dif doan nen kinh td'the'gidi se tang tnfdng 3.4% trong nim 2020. song canh bao nay cd kha ndng gidm td'c v^ chifa chac da phue hoi trd lai. IMF vd Ngan hang The gidi (WB) Hen tuc dira ra nhilu cdnh bdo tieu cifc dd'i vdi nen kinh te the gidi. Mot trong nhCfng thach thifc ldn nhal hien nay chinh la tinh hinh dich benh Covid 19 dang lan rpng tren toan can. Chinh phu Trung Quo'c dir bao, dich Covid-19 khie'n kinh te nu'dc nay giam 0,3 diem % - xud'ng cdn 5,8% nam 2020. Cd quan Tinh bdo Kinh te (EIU) ifdc tinh, dich benh Covid-19 cd the iam Trung Quo'c gidm tiJ" 0.5 de'n 1 diem % tang trirdng GDP thirc te trong nam 2020, tham chi se chi con tdng trirdng 5.9 - 4.9% GDP. Trong dd. chiu dnh hirdng ndng ne nha't la du lich va van tai (hang khong va cdng ty lif hanh), nen kinh te Trung Quo'c cd lhi bu'dc vao trang thdi "ngu ddng". Trifdc bd'i cdnh do. theo mgt so' nghien cifu cua Goldman Sachs. Moody's. Coface. BNP Paribas Cadif. International SOS.... dich benh Covid -19 cd the khien GDP toan cau giam khoang 0.3 - 0,7 diem % nam 2020. dan den loan bg cdc nen kinh te khac cOna chiu anh hirdng theo. Vi du. ne'u san lirdng che tao cua Trung Quoc giam 10 ty USD thi Han Quoc. thiet hai de'n 500 trieu USD. ihiet hai cua cdc qudc gia va viing lanh tho tren the gidi cd the len den khodng 6,7 ty USD. ne'u tinh de'n ca dnh hi/dng gidn tie'p cd the len den khoang 65 t\ USD. My chiu tac ddng bdi sif gidn doan nguon cung linh kien lii Trung Quoc (Apple phu (huge vao nguon cung lir Trung Quoc cho cac san pham nhtr dien thoai thong minh); Dai Loan (Trung Quo'c) la nha cung ca'p chinh cac linh kien dien lif cho Trung Quo'c va hoat ddng thirdng mai vdi dai luc chiem de'n 36% tong kim ngach ihiTdng mai cQa Dai Loan. Con sd'nay vdi Han Quo'cia 28%. cua Nhat Ban la 22%. cua Biic la 6%.... Chu'a ke de'n nganh du Hch, hang khong cua cdc quo'c gia bi anh hirdng nghiem trong. Gid dau the gidi cung cham mii'c thap nha't trong hdn mgt nam qua do nhu cau tai Trung Quo'c suy ye'u bdi Covid-19. Thach thu'c ldn thif hai chinh la cudc chien thifdng mai giifa My - Trung. Du hai quo'c gia nay da dat 6\i(ic ihda thuan thirdng mai giai doan I, nhifng cdc miJc thue quan da difdc dp dung lif trddc dd van cd hieu li/c va chifa the hda giai nhCfng tde dgng cua cdc bien phdp nay trong "mdt sdm mot chieu". Ba Id. thdi ban Anh chinh thiJc kich hoat Brexit. rdi khdi EU sa'p de'n. Dieu na\ md ra mgt thdi ky ba't dinh cho nen kinh te Anh dd'i vdi cac md'i quan So 10-Tl-iang 5/2020. 79. TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG. he vdi chau Au trong iiTdng lai. .Mdt sif bat dinh \e mdt liii chinh. chinh tri \ a ihifdng mai. Ba't on Brexit se Idm xao trdn ddng vd'n dau nf. ihifdng mai va lan ra the gidi. Hang hoa d khu vifc chau Au se tdng gia do bi dp thue quan. cac doanh nghiep hai ben khdng cdn Idi the dau tif sang nhau ma phdi mat phi va thdi gian lam thu tuc, di lai, vd du Hch cung se bi tac ddng tieu cifc. Anh la nu'dc bi tac dgng nhieu nha't vi phai hifng chiu su" gidm siit dau tir nu'dc ngoai (FDI). do dd ddn de'n viec giam long dau tir. gidm ldng trirdng GDP va cdng viec lam. Hien nay. cac doanh nghiep nifdc ngoai Idn dd chd qua lau. nen da tu' khdi ddng rdi khoi nu'dc Anh. Dd'i vdi hg. \ iec Anh cd dat difdc thda thuan Brexit hay khdng khong con quan trgng nCfa. Day la mdt tdn that ldn cho nen kinh te Anh xet ve dai ban. Bdn Id. sir noi ten cda cac ong Idn cdng nghe vdi lu'dng dif lieu khong lo.cd kha nangse tai djnh hinh cdng viec cua the' gidi trong nam 2020. Da'u Infdng trifc luyen cd the xem nhd mdt mdt Iran khac trong cdc cugc chien thu'dng mai ma Tong tho'ng Trump khdi mao. sau khi dng de dga danh thue dd'i vdi hang hda ciia Phap. \i Paris ban hanh ihuc k\ ihual so'do'i vdi cdc tap doiin cdng nghe Idn de'n tif My (nhir Amazon, Facebook \a Google). Chau Au dang de dga se cd mgl don dap tra chung trong va'n de nay. Nam td. viec Fed giff nguyen lai sua't trong nam bau cif... khien USD lien tuc Ien gid; My va EU cd the md rdng chinh sdch tai khda va lai sua't dao han dai ky Id rui ro dd'i vdi nen kinh te the gidi nam 2020.' Sdu Id. xung dot tai Iran va dich benh se gay anh hirdng den gia dau the gidi. Gid dau tren dii tnfdng the gidi nga\' 27/01 vira qua da xudng den mifc thap nha't ke li^ cud'i thdng 10/2019. TCr khi cd chinh thu'c cdng bo'dich virus corona cd the lay tif ngu'di sang ngirdi, ngay 22/01/2020, gia dau trung binh gidm tir 65 USD/baril xud'ng con 59 USD. tifc mat gan 10%. chi trong vdng 8 ngay. Dtf bao nam 2020 se cd mgt so' rui ro dd'i vdi nen kinh te toan cau. nhu': Sif kien bau cii' 6 My, lien quan den sif phan hda giau ngheo. viec dang Diin chii dda ra chinh sdch tang thue dd'i vdi nhO'ng ngu'di giiiu; Chien tranh thu'dng mai M> - Trung chira cd hoi ket \ a sd khdng rd rang trong cac chinh sach khien gidi dau tiT va ngu'di lieu diing quan ngai. Slf tang trifdng cham lai cua cac nen kinh te Idn nhif M\. Trung Quo'c, se gay ba't on kinh te. thu'dns mai loan cau. OECD dd dodn. td'c do tdng. 80. So 10-Thang 5/2020. inrdng kinh te toan cau sc giam trong ndm tdi, xud'ng 2.9%^ - miYc tha'p nha't ke tif ddt su\ thoai to^n cau nam 2009. 2. Di^ bao kinh t§' \ i^t Nam niim 2020 va phfln tich anh hifd^ng cac yS'u to' d6'n chi ti^u kinh le Viet Nam d§t ra - Muc tieu ddt ra nam 2020 ciia Viet Nam Nam 2020 dufdc gdi ggn muc lieu trong Nghi quye'l sd' 85/2019/QH14 ve Ke hoaeh phdt inen kinh le nam 2020. Cu the nhif sau: (Bang I) Bang 1. Chi tieu kinh te nam 2020 Ch! tieu. 2020 6,8%. Tang tnj6ng GDP CPI binh quan. i. Dudi 4% I. "rang tracing kim ngach XK. 7%. Ty le nhap Si6u/ tong i<im nggch XK (%). Dudi 3%. long von dau tU phal Irife'n toan xa hSi (%GDP). 33-34%. Ty le that nghiep d thanh thj (%). Dual 4%. Ngudn: Nghi (piycl sd85/2019/QH1 Muc lieu tren ciia Viet Nam du'de ddnh gid c6 the dai dddc, tuy nhien can sir no life ra't ldn tnfde linh hinh djch benh va nen kinh te the gidi gidm siit nhif hien nay. + Ve tang trddng GDP dddc danh gid miJc 6,8%. tha'p hdn 2019, la hodn loaned cdsd. Mdc du, ndm 2019 GDP tang 7,02%, vddl xa diT bao cua cdc to chifc quoc te, nhd ADB tinh loan 6,9%, World Bank 6.8%.... Tuy nhien, ket qud tich cifc nay khdng dong nghTa vdi sif cam ket chdc chdn cho nam sau, bdi nhifng ihach thifc xua't hien dang ngay mdt ro hdn, Dau tien la stf cham lai vdi nganh cdng nghiep che bien - che tao. La nhom nganh then chd't quye'tdinh da tang trddng nhu'ng nam gan day ciia nen kinh te, nhu'ng cang ve cud'i nam, td'c do gia tdng ciia ITnh VLfc nay cdng cd da'u hieu suy gidm, keo theo sd cham lai cua khu vifc cdng nghiep va xay ddng (nhdSamsung, Fomu.sa, Nghi Sdn). (Hinh I) Tinh de'n anh hifdng cua dich Covid 19, ngdy 12/2/2020, khi cdng bd'bao cdo danh gid anh hddng cua dich benh dd'i vdi kinh te' - xd hdi Viet Nam. da gidm mdc dd bdo GDP xudng chi cdn 5,96% neu dich benh keo dai de'n quy II. so vdi muc lieu ddt ra trddc dd cho ca ndm la 6.8%. Con sd' nay con phu thugc vdo viec benh dich se dddc kiem so^t hoan loan nhu" the nao d Viet Nam. cac nddc cung. KINH TE. Hinh 1: Tdng trddng khu vdc cong nghiep vd xay ddng nam 2019. doan 3.7%. tang so vdi nam 2019. Nguyen do xac dinh bdi gid iddng thdc, thdc pham tang do dich benh. dac biet la gid thit ldn. Chi so'gid tieu rc c6ng nghlft) vi xiy dung 10J)5 dimg (CPI) thang 12/2019 tdn"g 1,4% so vdi thang trddc. miic tang cao nha't trong 9 nam qua. chiJ ye'u do anh hddng tii gid thit ldn do thieu hut nguon cung. Trong 3 thang cud'i ndm 2019. gia thit ldn tren thi tru'dng da tang \ap \i 50%. vdi mdc tdng thang 10 la 7,85%. Ihdng 11 tang I8,5l%vd thdng 12 tang 19.7%. theo so'lieu lir Tdng cue Thd'ng ke. Bien dong nay tie'p tuc anh hddng trong quy 1/2020. Dd'i vdi nhdm giao thong se khdng cd gi dang ngai do (i) Quy Binh on xang dau (BOG) d mifc tu'dng dd'i td't, Nguon: Tdng cue Thdng ke ddc tinh khodng 2,500 ty dong giup Chinh phu cd dddja de dieu tiet gid xang dau trong ca'p dau vao san xua't cho nifdc ta. Tren the gidi, nddc; ii) Gia dau thd Brent trung b1nh trong nam mifc do chiu dnh hu'dng ciia GDP la khac nhau. 2020 theo dif bdo thang 12 ciia EIA vao khoang + Ve xua't nhap khau se cham lai, do dnh hifdng $61/thung. tha'p hdn mifc trung binh $64/thiing ci'ia tifiu cifc de'n tiJf dich benh va dien bien cua thifdng niim 2019. (Bdng 2) mai the gidi va se khdi sac sau khi hiep dinh thddng mai tuf do EVFTA cd hieu life. Dieu nay la ta't yeu khi nhifng Bang 2. Dii bdo tde dpng gid nhdm hdng vd djch vu thi inrdng xua't khau ldn nha't anh hifdng de'n CPI 2020 ciia Viet Nam deu dang chiu -./-(ll) Ticd6ngd*nCPiPtil Ouy*ni6(*.) ' hau qud nang ne tCf dich benh, HinESnvidichvuinuflrs 1 j la: My, Trung Quo'c. Han Quo'c Li/cJng t h J t d46 ; •; ora •nilJcphSm 22.00 B LBl 1 va Nhal Bdn. Cu the, theo Tong 906 2 I oia An u 6 n g ngoJkl g i a d i n h cue Hai quan, tinh iii dau nam LS ; 0 05 1 2 D&uenBvithuficlJ 359 den he't ngay 15/3/2020, long iri 0 10 1 Ma y m5 c. m u n i n . s i l y H ^ 63? vs 1 3 "1 gia xua'l nhap khau hang hda cd IS 73 OSS N h i 6. ditn n i i d c . chSt d S l v i VLXD 1 4 1 { 007 7 31 T h i s bi vi di d u n g g i a d l r h 5 nddc dat 97.85 ty USD - tang ThuScvtdlchvuyK 5.M e 040 1 6 4.4% (tddng u'ng tang 4,11 ty 9 37 0 1 000 G..olh5ne 7 USD) so vdi cung ky nam 2019. -1 : -0 03 BlAjcmnhv.fellhin8 2.88 B. OM 1 Gido dge S.99 9 6 1 Vdi kcl qud niiy. can can 1 ; 004 v a n h d a . g t A . tri v ^ d u lich 4_i9 10 thifdng mai hang hda cua Viet 330 2.2 1 007 1 Kh.c 11 Nam trong ky I thdng 3 nam TSng 3 70 1 2020 cd mii-c thang dii la 882 Ngium: KBSV tri$u USD, dda mdc thang dd cancan thddng mai hang hda cua Viet Nam tiJdau Cd the thay nam 2020. Viet Nam dd'i mat vdi ndm de'n het ngiiy 15 thdng 3 nam 2020 len 2.74 ty nhieu khd khdn nhd: USD. Khi EVFTA ed hieu life se hd d-d dang ke cho Thif nhdt. san xua't cong nghiep dang giam da cdc doanh nghiep xua't khau truyen thd'ng (del may. tang trddng. giay ddp. thuy san) trong viec md rdng thi trddng Thif hai. nong nghiep cdn nhieu khd khan. sang EU, trong bd'i cdnh gia hang hda dif kie'n se Thifba. tai cdca'u nen kmh te. nha't la tai cdca'u tiep tuc cd xu hddng giam trong nam 2020. doanh nghiep nha nifdc \a gidi ngan vd'n dau td. + Ve CPI binh quan nam 2020 dddc KBSV dd. cong cdn cham. So 10-Thdng 5/2020. 81. TAPCHlCONBTHUDllG. Thif lit. cai each ihc che con cham %a chda ddp dng \eu cau doi hdi ciJa thdc lien thi trddng. Thifndtn. kha nang chong chju ciia nen kinh te dd'i vdi cdc cu sdc ben ngoai van con mong. Day Id nhifng van de Chinh phu can phai do'i mdt va xif ly de dat dddc ket qua nen kinh te nam 2020 nhd mong muon. Viet Ndm dd duy tri dddc da tang trddng cao. \a nen lang vT md d'n dinh trong nam 2019. tuy nhien, con nhieu rui ro, thach thifc. diSm nghen can quan lam khac phue. Can dda ra nhifng giji phap can cd va cd tam nhin mdi cd the ddm bao hoan thanh muc tieu phat trien kinh te - \d hpi nam 2020 ma Quo'c hdi de ra. tao lien de cho giai doan 2021 2030 phat trien nhanh. ben vifng •. TAI I J E t THAM KHAO: 1. Chinh phu Nddc CHXHCN Viel .Nam (2019). Bdo cdo imh hinh kinh le'mim 2019 trhih Qudc hdi 2. Quoc hoi Nirdc CHXHCN \'iOi Nam i2(119). W'/i/ t/iiyet u)'H5/20!9/QHI4. 3. Khoi phan tich KBSV (2020). Trien vong khdi kinb te'2020. 4.mF{2Q\9).. Bcio cdo trien vgng kmh le the gidi 2020.. ^. VERP (2020). Bdo eiio kmh le Viet Nam quy lV/2019.. Ngay nhan bai: 17/4/2020 Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va sii'a chifa: 27/4/2020 Ngay chS'p nhSn dang bai: 7/5/2020 Thdng tin tde gid ThS. PHAM THj THU H.V Khoa Tai chinh ng£in hang Trifolng Dai hpc Kinh t e - Ky thuat cong nghiep. THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2020 AND SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM TO OVERCOME DIFFICULTIES • Master, PHAM THI THU HA Faculty of Finance - Banking University of Economics - Tectinoiogy for industries ABSTRACT: Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, most of the major economies in the world experienced increasing risks in 2019, making the global economic outlook in 2020 unstable. Vietnam has also 1 aced higher risks amid widespread of Covid-19 outbreak. This paper is to presents some forecasts about the global economy and Vietnam's economy in 2020 and provide some solutions to help Viemam overcome difficulties to achieve the country's set goals. Keywords: Global economy, GDP, CPI. the Covid-19 pandemic.. 82. Sd 10-Thang 5/2020.