KINH tt VIET NAM NAM 2012 VA DINH HUONG NAM 2013
THU C TRANG VA THACH THlTC CUA NGANH LUA GAO VIET NAM NAM 2013
ThS. NGUYEN PHI HOANG'
T6M TAT
Chua bao gi& md nong nghiep lgi thi hien mgnh me vai trd cua minh trong viec chdng d& cho nen kinh te vugt qua am bdo .suy thodi keo ddi da han 2 ndm qua nhu hien nay. Ngdnh hdng Ida ggo Id m<}t trong .w nhO'ng cdt tru quan trgng cua nong nghiep Vi?t Nam trong sudt th&i ky ddi tir sau ddi mai 1986 din nay. Tuy vgy. cUng chira bao gi& ngdnh hdng lua ggo Viet Nam lgi phdi ddi phd vai nhieu khd khan nhu hien nay khi ngdy cdng co nhieu ddi thu tham gia thi' trirdng vd cgnh tranh khdc liel v&i ggo xudt khiiu cua Viet Nam. Ben cgnh do. ndi tgi ngdnh .san .xudt Ida ggo Viet nam cung dang phdi ddi mat v&i rdt nhieu khd khdn nhu .sdn xudt manh niiim, cdng nghe thu hogch lgc hdu, kho hdi thiiu vd yiu. cdc chinh sdch hd trg cda nhd nirac chua phdt huy hi4u qud nhir mong mudn,... Bdi viet ngdn ndy se phdn tich ve thirc trgng vd thdeh thiic cita ngdnh lita ggo Vi?t Nam vd hif&ng din mgt .sir thay ddi md hlnh sdn xudt kinh doanh ngdnh hdng chiin luge nd}' irong thai gian t&i nhdm khai thdc tot han lgi the cgnh tranh ciia ngdnh
Tru&ng D^i hgc TAi chlnh Marketing.
hdng v&i uac mong mang den sir thinh virgng cho tdt cd cdc thdnh phdn cua chudi cung irng liia ggo Viet Nam.
Viet Nam la mdi qudc gia thuan ndng vd dang tren con dudng tim kilm phuong each de trd thanh mft qudc gia cdng nghifp vao ndm 2020. Tuy vgy, trai qua 25 ndm ddi mdi tir nam 19S6 din nam 2011. ndng nghifp van dang la mdt trong nhimg ngdnh kinh te chii dao ciia Viet Nam vdi dong gdp den han 20% GDP qudc gia va chilm tdi hon 50% lyc Iugng Iao dgng ciia todn xd hdi'. Trdi qua hai cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh 1997 vd 2008 (keo ddi cho din tan hdm nay vd chua biet ket thiic vao luc nao) cd the dl ddng nhdn thiy ngdnh ndng nghifp la ngdnh it bi dnh hudng bdi tdc ddng ciia cdc cudc khiing hoang ndy. Khdng nhimg thi, cac nghien ciru con cho thdy ndng nghifp thuc sir Id mdt be dd ViJng chai cho kinh t l qudc gia trong cdc k^ khung hodng vd khd khdn vira qua. Nln kinh tc vT md ciia Vift Nam co dirge sy vugt kho ddng ne trong hai cudc
' Ian Coxhead,Kim N.B. Ninh,Vu Thj Thao, Nguyen Thj Phuang Hoa, Bugc miia- nhirng lira chgn chiin luge de phdt irien nong nghi?p va nong thon Viet Nam, The Asia Foudation, 2010.
khiing hodng neu tren. Id nhd phdn ldn su ddng gop tir khu vuc ndng nghiep. Vdi nhiing kit qua vd diln bien thuc tl, nhieu chuy6n gia trong do cd M.
Porter, Peter Timmer da cho ring Chinh phu Viet Nam nen CO mdt chiin luge phdt tri6n thich dang ddi vdi nln ndng nghifp nudc nhd tren tinh than coi ndng nghiep nhu Id mdt trong sd cdc nganh kinh l6 mui nhpn ben cgnh 2 cgt try khdc td cdng nghiep va dich vu^.
Trong sd cac nganh then chdt ciia ndng nghiep Vift Nam nhu cd ph6, cao su, hd ti6u, hgt diiu.... Ilia ggo Id nganh cd nhiing ddng gdp dang ke vao su dn dinh ctia khu vuc ndng nghifp Vift Nam. San Iugng vd kim nggch xudt khau ciia ngdnh Ilia gao Vift Nam tdng trudng Ii6n lyc qua cdc ndm tir sau doi mdi 1986. Vdo ndm 2000, sdn lugng xult khiu gao Viet Nam dat miic 3,5 trieu tin vdi kim nggch 1,5 ty USD va din ndm 2012 thi con sd ndy Id han 7.5 trifu tin ggo thanh phim xult khau de dem ve mdt khdi lupng ngpai te gan 4 ty USD^ Budc
• Huynh Phan, Chien luge nong nghidp mdi hay giac mcr cOa ong Vi^n tmdng, Tuanvielnam.net
^ Phgm Quang Di£u, Nhin cgn canh nginh liia ggo Vift Nam. TBKTSG ngiy 17/12/2011.
NGHI£N CCU Tki ClliNH - MAIIKETING SCS13A14, XUAN QU^f TY • 2013 13
KINH TE VI|T NAM NAM 2012 VA P|NH HUaNG NAM 2013 tiln nay da biln Viet Nam tii'
mgt nudc thiiu an trd thdnh cudng qudc xudt khau ggo dting thii 2 thi gidi, chi sau Thai Lan.
Vdi cdc kel qua dang khfch le cua nganh sdn xuat liia gao Vift Nam trong nhirng ndm qua, ro rdng Vift Nam dang cd nhCrng lgi thi nhdt dinh trong sdn xult liia gao so vdi cdc qudc gia khac vd so vdi cdc nganh khdc tai Viet Nam. Vd, khi ggo dang dan trd thdnh mgt mat hdng chien luge d ca khia cgnh kinh te vd an ninh qudc gia thi Igi the dd cdn phdi dugc tan dung va phdi huy d miic tdi da cd thi. dac biet khi ma cac yeu td ho trg ngdnh hang ndy tiip tuc dugc gia cd nhu tdc dp tdng dan sd ciia the gidi tiep tyc cao, su khan hiem nhi6n lieu hda thach. dit ndng nghifp cd xu hudng gidm, tic df dd thi hda tdng nhanh. thien tai, dich benh thudng xuyen han,...
Tuy dat dupe nhieu thdnh tuu rlt ddng khich If, nhung ngdnh sdn xuat lita ggo Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi, van cdn rlt nhilu cdc thach thirc ddt ra cho cdc nhd Idm cdng tdc hoach djnh chiin luge phat tri6n ngdnh hang nay neu mudn lua ggo tiep tyc la ngdnh kinh tl chii dgo Irong dn dinh kinh te vT md va thu hiit ngoai tf cho Vift Nam. Cac thach thiic ndy gdm cdc ydu td ben ngoai I§n cdc yeu kem ndi tgi ciia ngdnh. Cdc thach thirc ben ngodi den tir viec ngay cdng xult hifn nhilu han cac ddi thii cgnh tranh nhu An Dp, Myanma.
Pakistan hay Campuchia, ben cgnh ddi thii truyen thong la nhd sdn xult vd xuai khau gao Idn
nhdt thi gidi. Thai Lan. Cac qudc gia ddi thit mdi nay da dua thi trudng ggo the gidi vao mdt cudc canh tranh quylt lift tren tit ca cdc phuang dien tir gid cd, chit Iugng cho din thuang hifu.
Su xult hifn cua cac doi thu canh tranh mdi da day ngdnh sdn xult liia gao Viet Nam vdo mgt tinh the vd ciing khd khan trong thdi gian qua khi mdt mdt khdng thi canh tranh vl gia vdi cdc qudc gia mdi tham gia thi trudng nhu An Dp. Myanmar, Cambodia hay Bangladesh, mat khdc lgi cung khdng thi canh tranh v6 chdt lupng, dich vy hay thuong hieu vdi ggo den tir Thdi Lan.
An Do, Myanmar hay Bangladesh dang quay trd lai thi trudng xudt khdu ggo thi gidi vdi chien luge gid re vd canh tranh mdt cdch true difn vdo phdn khuc chu luc ciia Viet Nam, phan khuc ggo pham cap thdp. Dieu ndy ddy cac doanh nghifp xudt khdu gao cita Vift Nam phai canh tranh ve gid vdl cac qudc gia ndy. Van d l nay sinh tir chinh chiin lupc cgnh Iranh cua Viet Nam: Khdi lugng xuat khdu gao tdng nhanh, theo du bdo cd th6 cdn mdc 7,7 trifu lln ggo Irong nam 2012 nhung gid trj lai giam manh so vdi trudc, udc dat khoang .\ap sT 3.5 ty USD'.
Trong khi phai bdng mpi gia cgnh tranh vdi hang gid re ciia cdc qudc gia iren, cdc doanh nghifp xult khiu gao Vift Nam chi con mgt each, vd cd le la each de Iam nhat. la gidm gia
' lli?p hfi ICa ggo ViftNam VFA.
mua liia gao ciia ndng ddn trong nudc xudng thip. Hf qua la thu nhap ctia ndng ddn Viet Nam ngdy cang thip trong khi sdn hrgng idm ra ngay cdng cao.
Nghich ly xult hifn tgi day va cd thi se Id nguyen nhan chinh khiln ndng nghifp Vift Nam ndi chung. va liia ggo Viet Nam noi rieng, bi ldi phat trien trong thdi gian tdi n6u tinh hlnh khdng cd cdi thien dang ke nd». Cgnh tranh vl gia vdi cdc qulc gia khdc, phdn thdng trong nam 2012 cd ve nghieng ve phia Vift Nam vdi vi tri quan quan the gidi vl khdi lugng. nhung lai gdy ra nhirng tdn thuang nghiem trgng ddi vdi ngdnh hdng sdn xult li'ia gao trong nudc. 'Wdng ddn do mo hdl, xdt con mdt ldm ra hgt ggo. cudi ciing ngir&i ta dem ban nhu cho vdy md cdn ho hai ca lung''''', can ndi ciia mpt ndng ddn ihi trdn Tan Thdnh, Long An dd khai qudt len su ton thuong nghi6m trpng ndy.
Vgy tai sao gao Vift Nam khdng canh tranh vdi ggo Thai Lan? Cau tra Idi Id ngudi Thdi khdng cgnh tranh vdi chiing ta vl gid. Hp chap nhdn ban gid cao han ggo Vift Nam. nhung van ban tdt vd van dugc thi tnrdng chdp nhan. Nguyen nhdn din til vifc Vift Nam khdng cd thuang hifu manh ve ggo cao cdp, do mdt thdi gian ddi qua chCi trpng vao sd lugng md khdng quan ldm dung muc den phdt iriln cac gidng liia chdt lupng cao. Ben
• Trung Chanh. Xuat khau g^o: chat lirang lang nhung khong nang nil gia irj. TBKTSG s l 50-2012 ngay 6 -12- 2012.
NGHIEN c t f u TAI CHfNH - MARKETING SO I3« 14, XUAN QUV X y - Z0I3
KINH T £ V I $ T NAM NAM 2012 VA D|NH H U 0 N G N A M 2 0 1 3 cgnh dd. cac doanh nghiep xudt
khiu gao Viet Nam cting khdng quan tam den xdy dung thuang hifu gao cho minh vd cudi ciing Id khd ndng truy nguyen ngudn gdc ciia ggo Viet Nam cdn rlt nhilu khd khan vd bit cap. Dilti dd cd nghTa Id. ggo Viet Nam gin nhu khdng cd co hdi canh tranh vdi gao Thai Lan trong qud khii, hien tai vd cd thi trong tuong lai gan.
B6n cgnh cdc de dga tir ben ngodi. hang loat cdc yiu kem npi tgi nhu ndng suat thdp. cdng nghf sau thu hoach lgc hau, cdng tac thu mua vd luu kho cdn nhilu yeu kem, thieu su ddu tu dai han va dimg cdch ciia nhd nudc, dien tich canh tdc manh mun. su han chl ve con gidng vd If thuge vao nudc ngodi ddi vdi cdc yiu td ddu vao khdc,... va vifc tring lua ty phdt thiiu dong bf dang va se ludn de dga din sy phdt trien ben vii'ng ciia ngdnh sdn xult Ilia gao Viet Nam.
Hifn nay, cdng tdc lai tao gidng Ilia ciia Vift Nam cdn phdt trien k(5m. chii yeu tap trung vdo Iai tgo cdc gidng liia cao sdn ngin ngdy md khdng tap trung Iai lao cdc gidng liia chit lupng cao, Ben canh do, nhilu ndng dan tiln hdnh trdng liia chat Iugng cao nhirng tieu thy rat khd vd gia bdn klidng cao. He qud Id ggo Vift Nam ludn cd chat Iugng k^m hon gao ciia Thai Lan.
Cdng nghf sau thu hoach liia cua Vift Nam cdn lac hau, thti cdng vd theo tdp qudn cu nhu phoi phdng ngoai dudng Ip, gat ddp cdn thu cdng vd dua vao sirc ngudi la chinh nen dan den chi
phi thu hogch cao. He qua la tdn thdt sau thu hoach ciia lua ggo Viet Nam khd cao vd chit hrgng gao bi dnh hudng. Ben cgnh dd.
viec canh tdc tren cdc canh ddng dien tich nhd Igi khdng cd su phdi hgp vdi nhau. mdi hp ndng dan irdng m5i loai liia khdc nhau, ddn din hifn tupng ggo khdng ddng chit va bj ddnh ddng la gao pham d p thdp.
Cdng tdc thu mua hien nay cung dang d^t ra nhilu vdn dl nhu cd qua nhilu tdng nic trung gian ndi ket giifa ngudi ddn sdn xudt Ilia ggo va doanh nghiep xuat khau ggo, Hf qua Id chi pht trung gian tdng 16n nhilu ldn va day gia thanh gao Viet Nam len cao vd cdc khoan tdng them nay da phan rai vdo tay cdc tang nac trung gian do.
Mli ndm cir den vu thu hoach rg nidi hdng liia ggo Id lai xult hien hien lugng gia Iiia trong nudc gidm lien tuc va ngudi dan trdng Ilia lien tuc gdp khd khdn vdi vdn nan ndy. Difp khiic'' dugc miia mit gid"' lien tyc dien ra va cd ve chua cd bien phdp khdc phuc hieu qud. Ly giai cho vdn d6 ndy, chimg ta cd the nhdn thiy mdt sd nguyen nhan chi'nh yeu sau: thii nhdt, ngudi dan khdng cd sdn bdi phii hgp dl phoi.say lita vd khdng cd kho de chira liia hifu qua trong khi ddc trung ciia vimg DBSCL Id cd miia mrdc len. Thir hai, sau khi thu hoach ngudi ndng dan trdng Iiia sS phdi Io xoay sd tien bgc de trang trdi ddi sdng vd tiip tuc tdi ddu tu cho vu miia ke tllp.
Tir hai nguyen nhdn tren, hifn tugng ddng loat ban Iiia ngay sau khi thu hogch lien lyc xdy ra.
NGin£N ctfu TAI ClliNH • \L\RKKTING s 6 13414. XUAN QU^" TV - MI3
He qud Id gid lua lien tuc gidm va mdt vdn d6 rdt dang quan tdm hifn nay Id ngudi Iao dpng true tiip sdn xult ra hat Iiia dd chua the ldm gidu ngay tren ddng rudng ctia minh. Hifn tugng ndy gdy ra mgt Io ngai rdt cd thuc la Viet Nam s6 dan ddnh mat dpng luc vd Igi thi trong vifc phdt Irien ngdnh kinh t l mui nhgn nay trong tuang Iai.
Cdu hdi la ldm the ndo de ngdnh sdn xult liia ggo Viet Nam cd mdt vi thi cgnh tranh tit han Irong tucmg lai? Chien lupc nao cd thi giiip ngdnh lita ggo Vift Nam tiip tuc phat huy lgi thi ciia minh de trd thanh mgt ngdnh kinh tl mui nhgn ciia qudc gia vdi udc muon mang den su thinh vugng cho tdt ca cdc thdnh vien tham gia vdo chuoi cung ling liia gao?
v l dai hgn, dl cd thi thoat khdi tinh thi khd khdn nhu tren.
can tra Idi cdc cdu hdi sau:
1. Viet Nam s6 chgn chien lupc ndo trong phdt trien ngdnh hdng Ilia ggo ciia minh? Chit iugng vdi gid bdn cao hay gid thdp vdi chdt lugng thip?
2. Lgi ich ciia ngudi trdng Iiia sc dugc giai quylt bdng co chl gi? Nen uu tien cho thu nhdp ciia ngudi true tiip trdng Iiia hay uu tien cho cdc doanh nghifp xult khau?
Chi khi ndo tra ldi mpt cdch rd rang cdc van de tren. Vift Nam mdi cd CO may hogch djnh dugc mdt chiin lupc tdng thi nhim phdt huy tdi da Igi thi cgnh tranh ciia nganh hdng liia ggo Vift Nam trong thai gian tdi, •
(Xem ti4p trang 22) IS
KINH T ^ V I | T NAM N A M 2012 VA B|NH HUdNG N A M 2013 http://sgtt.vn/Kinh-te/134968/Nam-
201 l-nhu-ca%CC%80u-nha%
CC%A3p-kha%CC%89u-sa%
CC%81 n-cu%CC%89a-Trung- Quo%CC%81 c-ra%CC%811- lo%CC%81n.html
7. Hoang Kim (2012), "Cassava for Biofuel in Viet Nam", trang web Foodcrops. vn, dpc tir http://foodcrops.blogspot.com/2011/04 /cassava-for-biofuel-in-vietnam. html
8. Le Thanh (2012), "Kho thoat nghfeo tir cay san", trang web Dai Dodn ket, dpc tCr
http://daidoanket.vn/index.aspx7Me nu=1436&Chitiet=56379&StyIe=l
9. Minh Ngpc (2012), "Xudt khdu san vupt moc ty USD: mimg va Io", Bao Dien Id Chi'nh phii nudc Cpng hoa Xd hpi chii nghTa Vift Nam, dpc tir
http://baodientu.chinhphu.vn/Home /Xuat-khau-san-vuot-moc-ty-USD- Mung-va-lo/20121I/154743.vgp
10. Ngpc Hung (2012), "Xult
khdu khoai mi chgm mdc 1 ti dd la My", Thdi bdo kinh te Sai Gon, dpc tu http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Hom e/kinhdoanh/xuatnhapkhau/83663/
Xuat-khau-khoai-mi-cham-moc-1- ti-do-la-My.html
n . Quang Ngpc (2012), "Tim nhin cay sdn", trang web Ndng nghiep Viet Nam, dpc tir http://nongnghiep.vn/nongnghiepvn /72/45/45/99794/Tam-nhin-cay- san.aspx
12. Quynh Huong (2011), "Long dong phan san: Bai 1: San "ISn ngdi", Bdo difn tir Kinh tl Ndng thdn, dgc tir
http://kinhtenongthon.com.vn/Story /VandeSukien/2011/6/28633.html
13. Trdn Cong Khanh, "Gidi thieu cSy san", trang web Cdng ty TNHH nhien lifu sinh hpc Phuang Dong", dpc tur
http://orientbiofuels.com. vn/index.p hp?option=com_content&view=arli cle&id=67%3Atng-quan-v-cay-
sn&catid=48%3 Atng-quan-v-cay- sn<emid=68&lang=vi
14. Trdn Ngpc Vin (2011).
'Trien vpng nganh sdn 2011", trang web Saigontimes, dpc tfl http://www.lhesaigontimes.vn/Honi e/nongsan/tintucthitruong/49037/Tr ien-vong-nganh-san-201 l.html
15. Vinanet (2012), "Tinh hinh xual khau san vd san phdm S thang 2012", trang web Bf Cong Ihuomg, dgc tfl
http://vinanet.vn/tin-thi-1juong- hang-hoa-viet-nam.gplist.294.
gpopen.203624.gpside. 1 .gpne wtitle.tinh-hinh-xuat-khau-san-va- san-pham-5-thang-2012.asmx
16. Yin Tha (2012), "Viet Nam dd nhap si6u tfl thi trudng Trung Qudc 10,86 ty USD trong 9 thang dau nam", trang web So Cong thuong VTnh Phuc, dpc tfl http://www.vinhphucit.gov.vn/so- cong-thuong-vi n h-ph uc.gpprint.
6455.gpside. 1 .asmx.
(Tiip ttieo trang 15)
Tai li^u tham khdo 1. Bui Chi BLTU, Sdn xudt liia gao vi at'-', Thdi bao Kinh te Sai Gon so 47/2011 ngay 17-11-2011.
2. Nguyen Dinh Bich, Cdnh ddng mdu ldn - Budc ngodc m&i. Thdi bao Kinh tl Sai Gon sl 12/2012 ngay 15-3-2012
3. Trung Chanh, Mua Ida tam uir da thdt bgi. Thdi bao Kinh te Sai Gdn s6l6'20!2 ngay 12-4-2012.
4. Tdn Dlic. Khdng lua cap ihdp tin trong cdi gl? Thai bao Kinh tl
Sai Gon so 13/2012 ngay 22-3- 2012.
5. Dinh Hdng K>. Sao khdng Id udng nghiep'^. Thdi bdo Kinh te Sai Gon sd 7/2012 ngay 09-02-20! 2.
6. Huynh Kim, Sdn xudt lua ggo ndm tdi se ra sao?, Thai bao Kinh tl Sdi Gon so 45/2011 ngay 03-11- 2on.
7. Huynh Phan, Chien luge nong nghiep mdi hay gide ma cua dng vien truang. Tuan Vietnam, net,
8. Huynh Phan. Da hit ihdi ndng
nghiep gid re, tuanviemam.net.
9. Vo Tdng Xuan, De nong ddn ddng bdng sdng Cuu Long lam giau. Thdi bdo Kinh te Sai G6n s6 20/2012 ngay 10-5-2012.
10. Ian Coxhead,Kim N.B.
Ninh.Vu Thi Thao,Nguyln Thj Phuang Hoa. Dugc niita: nhimg lua chon chien luge de phdt triin ndng ngliiep vd ndng thdn Vi?!
Nam, The Asia Foudation, 2010.
11. M. Porter, Nadcmal competivaxs - issues for Vietnam, www.isc.hbs.ediL
NGHlfeN cifu TAI CHINH - ^UKKKTINa SO 13*14, XUAN QU* TV -Mi3
