NGHIEN C0U TRAO DOI < « «
KIEM CHUfNG LAI SUAT DIEU HANH CUA VIET NAM BANG CONG THUfC TAYLOR
ThS. Nguyin Trdn An
Tom tdt: Viec xdc dinh ldi sudt ca sd (ldi sudt chinh sdch ~ policy rate) la vdn di cdn thiet vd quan trgng ddi vdi bdt ky mdt Ngdn hdng Trung uang ndo trong viec dieu hdnh chinh sdch tien te. Tuy nhien, viec sd dung cdng cu ndo di xdc dinh ldi sudt co sd Id vdn de quan tdm hdng ddu cda cdc nhd hogch dinh chinh sdch tien te cdng nhu cdc hgc gid kinh te, trong do cong thdc Taylor cua gido sU Taylor cua trUdng Dgi hgc Standford, California, My dUgc nhieu nhd hogch dinh chinh sdch tiin te vd kinh te gia ddnh gid cao do tinh phu hgp, dan gidn vd CO the van dung trong cdc quyet sdch ve lai sudt ca sd. Nghien cdu cong thdc Taylor trong diiu kiin kinh ti d Vi&t Nam nhdm tim hiiu them mgt cong cu mang tinh dinh hudng trong quyit sdch ldi sudt cda Ngdn hdng Nhd nUdc (NHNN) vdi co sd nen tdng vd tinh thUc tien cao.
Tic khoa: Cdng thUc Taylor, ldi sudt ca bdn, ldi sudt ca sd, ldi sudt tdi cdp vd'n.
D $ t vfin d e
6 Viet N a m k^ td t h d n g 4/2010, N H N N da k h d n g dieu h d n h c h i n h sdch t i e n tg t h d n g qua lai sudft ca b a n (LSCB) 9%/nam (Thdng t u sd 12/2010/TT-NHNN n g a y 14/4/2010).
D e n n g a y 03/3/2011 N H N N b a n h d n h T h d n g t u so' 02/2011/TT-NHNN quy dinh mdc lai sud't huy ddng vdn td'i da b d n g VND Id 14%
ke tijf 03/3/2011 va lign tie'p h a t r a n ldi sud't huy dgng xud'ng 13% rdi 12% vd cud'i cung Id 9% vdo t h d n g 06/2012 theo Thong t u 19/2012/TT-NHNN. Ngodi r a N H N N quy dinh lai s u a t cho vay td'i da theo Thdng t u 14/2012/TT-NHNN sau dd t h a y the' b d n g T h d n g t u 20/2012/TT-NHNN vdi muc dich giup cac doanh n g h i g p tie'p can ngudn vdn vay de duy t r i vd md r d n g b o a t dgng s a n xudft k i n h doanh. Vd'n de Id nhU vdy mdc ldi s u a t h i g n n a y dd phu h o p vdi muc tidu k i i m c h ^ l a m p h d t vd duy t r i t d n g trUdng k i n h ti t r o n g didu k i g n mdi trUdng k i n h td' t r o n g vd ngoai nUdc vdn cdn khd k h a n vd t h d c h thdc h a y chua? P h a i c h d n g vigc cd che' dieu h d n h LSCB k h d n g thUc sU hieu qua h a y b a n t h d n ndi t a i mdc LSCB chUa dUgc xde dinh hgp ly.
Bdi viet t r i n h bdy mgt sd van d l lidn quan de'n cong thdc Taylor trong vigc xdc dinh lai suat cd sd vd md'i quan he gida lai sua't cd sd theo cdng thdc Taylor vdi LSCB trong dieu kien kinh td' Viet Nam.
Cd s d l y lufin Khdi ni^m
Lai sud't Cd sd cua FED (FFR - Frederal Funds rate) la ldi sud't d i i u hda von dU trU cua cdc td chdc tin dung do FED cdng bd' lam cd sd cho vigc h i n h t h a n h cac ldi sua't khdc trong dd cd LSCB. Ddy Id lai sud't md cac to chdc tin dung {thUdng la cdc ngdn hang) cho nhau vay phdn vd'n du t r d bdt budc du thda (hodc thie'u h u t t a m thdi) dang ndm trong quy du trff lien bang theo ydu cau dam bao ty lg du trff b ^ t huge cua cdc to chdc tin dung (cd t h e ggi Id ldi sud't d i i u h d a vd'n dU trff overnight) (Nguyin Van Hidu, 2011). Vd'n du trff Id khoan t i e n ky gdi cua cac n g a n h a n g t r o n g tdi k h o a n md t a i FED vd lUgng t i l n m a t t r o n g ngdn quy cua cdc n g a n h a n g (Mishkin, 2004).
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Lai sud't cd sd d mdc hgp ly phdi phu hgp chu ky k i n h t e va ddp dng muc tidu phdt tridn k i n h tg' trong tdng thdi ky, Co sd quye't dinh lai sua't co sd n e n thign v l dinh t i n h hay trdn ca sd dinh lugng? C6 rd't nhieu quan didm khdc nhau ve vai tr6 vd dg ldn cua lai sud't cd sd cung nhu cdch thdc diiu hdnh cua cdc Ngdn hang Trung Udng ve chfnh sdch lai sud't. Thdng thudng cd hai khuynh hudng v l diiu hdnh chinh sdch tien t^ - hodc tiiy y (discretionary policy) hodc theo qui ludt (policy rule). Taylor (1993) cho rdng da sS'dongy hoach dinh chinh sdch theo qui lu§t cd nhieu lgi the' ban so vdi chinh sdch tuy y trong dieu hdnh nen kinh te.
Ngay ca trong mdi trUdng thUc te' khdng the theo cdc cdng thdc todn hgc dai sd' dugc md ta bdi cdc nhd kinh te' thi vi^c duy tri hoach dinh chinh sdch theo qui ludt la quan t r g n g va cdn thie't. Chinh sach theo qui lu^t khdng nha't thig't la viec thie't ldp cd' dinh cdc cong cu chinh sach hodc mgt cdng thdc mdy mdc.
Vdi nghia rdng hdn, chinh sdch theo qui ludt la mdt kg' hoach dU phdng keo dai mai, triT khi cd dieu kien hoac m e n h de buy bo rd r d n g (Taylor, 1993). Mgt chinh sdch theo qui ludt n e n mang hai dac diem: (i) Cung cap hudng dfin cho chinh sach dieu h d n h trong tuang lai;
(ii) Mang y nghia boat ddng thUc te' b a n la dp dung mdy mdc cac chi t i e t cua bdt ky mdt cdng thdc dai so' nao.
Cdng thdc Taylor (1993) ve ldi sud't cd sd cua Ngan h a n g Du trff Lign bang My (FED) bao gdm a n h hudng tdc ddng cua chi so' lam phdt, do lech ve tdng sdn lugng n i n kinh tg' theo GDP (output gap) vd dg Igch gifla ti lg lam p h d t thUe tg' vd ti le lam p h d t muc tieu ddi b a n . CQng thdc ndy dde bidt hodn todn phu hgp vdi cdc quye't dinh ve lai sua't cd sd cua FED t r o n g giai doan 1987-1992.
Francesco vd cdc tdc gia (2010) cho r ^ n g hieu qua, sdc m a n h cua cdng thdc Taylor do t i n h ddn gian, trUc gidc va t a p t r u n g vao ldi s u ^ t n g a n h a n nhU Id m d t cdng cu cua chinh sdch t i l n t e . ThUc tg' c h i n h sdch t i e n tg cua FED giai d o a n 1987-1992 t d p t r u n g vao vigc
gidm l a m p h d t . Nguygn t^c Taylor la lai sud't chinb sdch p h d i t d n g k h i mdc ti lg lam p h d t ldn bdn ti 1^ l a m p h d t muc tieu. Cdng thdc Taylor gidi quyd't h a i n h i d m vu - sU b i n vdng v l gia vd sU t d n g trUdng k i n h te', dde bi^t d n i n k i n h te noi Iam p h d t Id muc tidu cd bdn, chu ydu.
Vi^c kiem chdng cong thdc Taylor d Vigt Nam n h d m giup chung ta di d e n ke't ludn:
CO nOn dp dung cdng thdc Taylor trong n i n k i n h te Vi^t Nam vd gid t h i d t v l d i i u kign dp dung.
Judd vd Rudebusch (1998) da t r i n h bdy cong thdc Taylor nguyen b a n (1993) nhU sau:
i, = Jij + r* + 0,5 (Kj - It*) + 0,5 (y,) (1) Trong dd: i^ Id ldi sud't cd sd cua FED, r* Id lai sud't CO sd binh qudn thUc td, n^ la ti le lam p h d t binh qudn qua 4 qui lign tidp, JI* la ti le lam p h d t muc tigu dai b a n , y^ la do lech tdng s a n lugng (output gap).
^ ;^00 X t>DP thUc te' - GDP t i l m ndng GDP t i l m n a n g hodc y^ = 100 x Ln (GDP thUc t e / GDP tiem ndng) (Kozichi, 1999)
Gia thie't td phUdng t r i n h (1):
+ Ne'u n^ = TT*: Tl 1^ lam p h d t binh qudn 4 qui lign tid'p = Ti 1^ Iam p h a t muc tieu dai h a n vd ng'u GDP thUe te = GDP tiem ndng, phUdng t r i n h (1) se t r d t h a n h : i^ = n^ + r* (2) P h u a n g t r i n h (2) t u a n g t u n h u cdng thdc ve lai sud't cua Irving F i s h e r , n h d k i n h te' hoc t i l n tg ndi tig'ng cua the' ky 20.
i = i^ + 7u^ (Mishkin, 2004) Trong dd: i la ldi sud't d a n h n g h i a , i^ la lai su^t thUc t d vd TT^ Id ti le l a m p h d t Udc tinh:
+ Nd'u jtj > Jt* hodc GDP t h u c tg' > GDP tilm n a n g (hay Yt > 0) - • y^ t d n g
• • • Cdngnghe n y ^ l l H a H Q I J s d ' 7 7 "Thang 8/2012
NGHIEN CUfU TRAO DOI ««^
+ Nd'u Tij < Tt* hodc GDP thUc te < GDP t i l m n d n g (hay y^ < 0) - • y^ gidm
Taylor (1993) gia dinh rdng, ti le lam phdt muc tieu ddi h a n la 2%/ndm va ldi sud't thUc t e ' b i n h quan Id 2%/nam phu hgp vdi ti lg tdng trudng b i n vflng gia dinh la 2,2%/ndm. Khi dd cdng thdc cua Taylor trd t h d n h :
it = 7t^ + 2 + 0,5 (71^ - 2) + 0,5 (y^) (1) Cdng thdc (3) hodn todn phu hgp vdi cdng tdc dieu h a n h ldi sua't co sd thuc te' cua FED trong giai doan 1987-1992.
Hai ye'u to' ca b a n a n h hudng de'n dg ldn lai sud't cd sd Id: (i) Do lech mdc gid (price level): do lech giffa ti ie Iam p h a t t h u c te' vd ti le l a m p h d t muc tieu ddi b a n ; (ii) Do lech t d n g s a n l u g n g gifla GDP thUc te' va GDP t i l m n a n g .
Taylor (1993) cho r d n g ddt mdt t r o n g so' ldn do lech ve tong s a n lugng t h i hidu qua hon la k h d n g d a t t r g n g so'; tuy v$y, chua xdc dinh dugc t r g n g so' v l do Idch tdng sdn lugng Id cao b a n hay thd'p hon so vdi t r g n g sd' cua do Igch mflc gid. Do dd Taylor da dp hg so' 0,5 cho cdc do lech nay.
hoach dinh chinh sdch dat muc tigu lam phdt qua thdi gian ddi b a n ; (iii) Giup cdc nhd hoach dinh chinb sdch chuyen tai sU bgp ly (vd ban chd't phu thugc vdo so li^u) dd'i vdi quye't dinh cua hg dd'n vdi cdng chung; (iv) Giup cdc n h a hoach dinh chinh sdch ddm bdo h d n h dgng trong ngdn b a n phu hgp vdi cdc muc tieu ddi ban; (v) Gidm sU khong chdc chdn v l cdc quyg't sdch Iai sud't chinh sdch hdm nay va trong tuang lai; (vi) Giup cdng chung hieu rd dugc trdch nhi^m ve quyd't dinh ldi sua't chinh sdch cua cdc nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch.
K i e m c h i i n g c d n g t h i i c T a y l o r t r o n g n e n k i n h td' Vi^t N a m t r o n g g i a i d o ^ n 2005-2010
Ly do chgn giai dogn 2005-2010: (i) Day la giai doan kinh td' Viet Nam cd n h i l u c h u y i n bid^n tich cUc hUdng ve n e n k i n h tg' t b i t r u d n g , hdi n h d p vdi the' gidi n h i e u hdn, gia n h d p WTO n d m 2006; (ii) N a m 2005 la n a m gd'e thd'ng kg cbi so' gid tieu dung;
(iii) K h u n g h o a n g k i n h tg* t o d n cdu n a m 2008 t d c ddng de'n n e n k i n h te' Viet Nam vdi mffc lam phdt cao 23%/nam vd tie'p tuc a n h h u d n g t r o n g nhffng n a m tie'p theo, cu t h e n a m 2011 mffc l a m p h d t la 18,58%.
Kahn (2010) da t r i n h bdy cdc lgi the cua cdng Cdch thu thdp si lieu vd tinh todn LSCB thffc Taylor nhU sau: (i) Md ta each thfle cdc theo Taylor trong nen kinh ti Viit Nam: chi nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch phdn ffng de'n mdi s d l a m p h d t lay theo cbi so' CPI vd GDP t i l m trudng kinh t d t h a y doi; (ii) Giup cdc nhd ndng can cfl vao chi tieu kinh tg' cua Qud'c hdi B a n g 1: Chi so^ l a m p h a t b i n h q u a n n&m (n^) va Dp l^ch t o n g s a n lifting tinh t h e o GDP
giai d o a n 2005-2010
Ban vi: ti dong (GDP)
Nam
2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CPI n a m tn/de
=100 108,30 107,50 108,30 123,00 106,90 109,19
T i l e lam p h a t tit 8,30 7,50 8,30 23,00 6,90 9,19
GDP thuc t ^ Gid n a m
1994 Y 392,996 425,135 461,443 489,833 516,566 551,609
Gia h i f n h a n h
Y 839,211 973,790 1,144,014 1,477,717 1,658,389 1,980,914
• n i l tang Y(%) 8,43 8,18 8,54 6,15 5,46 6,78
GDP t i l m nang (ke hoach) Gia n a m
1994 Y*
392,989 425,088 461,189 490,181 515,905 551,609
Gi4 hiSn h i n h
Y*
837,858 973,791 1,143,442 1,478,695 1,645,481 1,980,914
T i l e t a n g Y*(%)
8,43 8,17 8,48 6,23 5,32 6,78
DQ l§ch luang
y.
0,00 0,01 0,06 -0,07 0,13 0,00 Nguon: Tdc gii tinh todn tic so liiu cOa Tong cue Thong kS (2005-2010)
cengnghe H g a i i H a i i g •
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do tdc gia chila c6 dieu ki$n t i n h todn GDP t i e m n a n g . Do d6 de thu t h d p va t i n h todn so' lieu lien tiic vd dtfn gidn, chi so' CPI duoc t i n h todn h d n g ndm vdi ndm trudc Id 100%
va GDP thuc te' vd ti^m n d n g di/a t r e n 36 li^u tho'ng k§ h d n g ndm ciia Tdng cue Thd'ng ke t r o n g giai doan 2005 - 2010.
Kich bdn 1: (i) Ti le Iam p h d t muc tieu dai h a n (11*): 5-7%/ndm t r ^ n co sd Nghi quyft 10/2011/QH13 ngdy 08/11/2011 cua Quoc h6i nifdc Cong hda Xa hoi Chii n g h i a Vi^t Nam v l Ke' hoach p h d t t r i ^ n k i n h t6' xa h^i giai doan 2011-2015, Id'y i*=7%; (ii) ji, cdn cil sS li^u Tdng cue Thd'ng ke qua cdc ndm, ndm B4ng 2: Tinh t o i n lai suSit ctf sd (theo c5ng thiifc Taylor) c u a Vi$t Nam
giai doan 2005-2010 theo gi& thid't 1 N a m
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
r*
2,62 3,65 2,72 -5,20 3,81 1.14
B=0,5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0,6 0,5
n*
7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7.00
Hi 8,30 7,50 8,30 23,00 6,90 9,19
y . 0 , 5 0,5 0,5 0.5 0,5 0.5 0,5
y.
0,00 0,01 0,06
•0,07 0,13 0,00
i[
11,57 11,41 11,70 25,76 10,72 11,43
B d n g 3: L a i sufi't c<t s d , L S C B v a l a i sufi't tfii cfi'p vo'n t r o n g g i a i d o a n 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 0
N a m (1) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
L S C B (2) 7,80 8,25 8,25 11,25
7,00 8,00
L a i sud't ctf s d (3) 11,57 11,41 11,70 26,76 10,72 11,43
L S T C V (4) 6,36 6,50 6,50 12,65 7,33 9,00
L a i sufi't c d s d BO v d i L S C B (5)=(3)-(2)
3,77 3,16 3,45 14,51 3,72 3,43
L a i s u i t ctf » « «o v d i LSTCV (6)=(3)-(4)
5,21 4,91 5,20 13,11 3,39 2,43 Ghi chu. LSCB ndm 2008 tinh theo ldi sudt binh qudn ndm. Ldi sudt tdi cdp vdn (LSTCV) guu doan 2008-2010 tinh theo ldi su£it binh qudn ndm trin ca sd s6 liiu LSCB vd LSTCV cua NHNN do cd nhiiu mdc Ihdi gian qui dinh mOc ldi suA khdc nhau.
Nguon: LSCB vd LSTCV tU NHNN
H i n h 1: D ^ t h i b i e u d i € n q u a n h $ gii^a l a i sufi't ctf soT, L S C B v a L S T C V t h e o k i c h b a n 1
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
- • - L S C B - • - L S C S -*-LSTCV
2005 7.80%
11.57%
6.36%
2006 8.25%
11.41%
6.50%
2007 8.25%
11.70%
6.50%
2008 11.25%
25.76%
12.65%
2009 7.00%
10.72%
7.33%
2010 8.00%
11.43%
9.00%
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NGHIEN CUfU TRAO DOI « « <
Bang 4: Tinh toan lai suat cd sft cua V i | t Nam giai doan 2005-2010 theo kich ban 2
N a m 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
r*
2,62 3,65 2,72 -5,20 3,81 1,14
asO,5 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6
)t*
7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 7,00
t t 8,30 7,50 8,30 23,00 6,90 9,19
Y=0,5 0,5 0,5 0.6 0,5 0,5 0,5
y i 0,00 0,01 0,06 -0,07 0,13 0,00
i(
10,27 10,91 10,40 9,76 10,82 9,24
Bang 5: Tinh toan lai sul^t c<t sd cua Vi^t Nam giai doan 2005-2010 theo kich b a n 3
N a m 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
r»
2,00 2,00 2,00 -2,00 2,00 2,00
0=0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5
TT*
5,00 6,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00
t t 8,30 7,60 8,30 23,00
6,90 9,19
y=o,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5
y . 0,00 0,01 0,06 -0,07 0,13 0,00
it 8,65 8,26 8,68 11,96 8,01 9,10
trifdc = 100; (iii) r*: lai sua't thtfc t e qua cac n a m theo so lieu tii website World Bank.
Ttf so' lieu B a n g 3 , t a tha'y dp khdc b i e t giila LSCB cua N H N N va lai sua't ccf sd t i n h theo cong thijc Taylor k h o a n g 3%/nam ngoai tril n a m 2008 la n a m cd miJc lam p h a t r a t cao 23%/nam. Lai suat thUc te t r o n g n a m 2008 la -5,2%/nam theo World Bank. So vdi LSTCV, do c h e n h lech vdi lai suat cO sd dao dong tiX 2,43-5,21%/nam.
Kich b a n 2: (i) Thay ddi lai suat danh nghia b a n g t d n g lai sua't thUc te' binh quSn c6ng
ti 1# lam phdt muc tieu dai h a n (TT*) t h a y vi ti le lam p h a t binh quan thuc te 4 qui trudc lien ke (n^) theo quan diem cua Billi (2011), cu t h e ; i^ = Jt* + r* + a (jt( - JU*) + y (y^) (4).
Trong dd a=0,5; y=0,5 theo gia thie't go'c cua Taylor (1993); (ii) Cac di^u kidn khac trong kich b a n 1 giff nguyen.
So' lieu Bang 4 cho t h a y Iai sua't i^ giam d td't ca cdc n a m n§'u dp dung kich b a n 2 va khong chinh xdc d6'i vdi n a m 2008 do lai suat thuc am. Nguyen n h a n la do d^ t r e cua so' lieu.
Neu gia dinh lai sud't thiXc te n a m 2008 la r*=0, ij se b a n g 13,96%.
B a n g 6: S o l i ^ u l a i sud't cot s d , LSCB v a LSTCV t r o n g g i a i d o a n 2005-2010 t h e o k i c h b a n 3
Dan vi tinh: %
N a m (1) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
L S C B (2) 7,80 8,26 8,25 11,25 7,00 8,00
L a i s u a ' t ctf s d (3) 8,65 8,26 8,68 11,96 8,01 9,10
LSTCV (4) 6,36 6,50 6,50 12,65 7,33 9,00
L a i sua't ctf s d s o v d i L S C B (5)=(3)-(2)
0,85 0,01 0,43 0,71 1,01 1,10
L a i sua't ctf s d s o vdi LSTCV (6)=(31-(4)
2,29 1,76 2,18 -0,69 0,68 0,10 Ngu6n: LSCB. LSTCV til NHNN
«ngan hang H I
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Hinh 2: Do thi bieu d i l n quan h^ gifla lai sufi't col s LSCB v£l LSTCV theo kich bdn 3
11,00%
12.00H 10.00%
8,00%
6 00%
4.00%
2 00K
LSCB LSCS LSTCV
—
2005 7B0K Bes%
6 36%
2006 8.25%
B,26%
6 50%
2007 8 25%
e,6B»
G.50K 200S 11.25%
1196%
12,65%
.__
-
2009 7,00%
8.01%
7 33%
—
2010 800%
910%
9.00%
Kich bdn 3: (i) r*=2%/nam theo n h a gid thig't Taylor ve lai sua't binh qudn thuc te on dinh qua cdc ndm; (ii) Ti le lam phdt muc tieu dai han, 7i*=5%/ndm (Nghi quyet 10/2011/QH13 ngay 08/11/2011); (iii) Do ndm 2008 miic lam phat cao nen gia t h i e t lai suat thifc te binh qudn dm d mile -2%/nam; (iv) Cong thu'c Taylor ap dung quan diem cua Billi (2011).
(xu hudng t d n g GDP) giai doan 1990-2010 la 7,3% (World Bank, 2011).
LSCB ndm 2011 dua t r e n md^c cudi cung ap dung mUc LSCB la 9%/ndm hieu lUc tU thang 12/2010. LSCB n a m 2012 dUdc Udc tinh tren ccf sd t r a n lai suat huy ddng t h a n g 5/2012 la 12%7 (8%=12%/150%>).
Ro r a n g theo Bang 4 va H i n h 2, quan he giffa lai suat cd sd vdi LSCB gdn nhU tUOng ddng, dieu do cho phep r u t r a ke't luan cong thUc Taylor co t h e dp dung t r o n g di^u ki^n Vi^t N a m vdi di^u kign dUa r a gia thidt phu h a p . T i n h t o a n l a i s u a t cd sd t r o n g g i a i d o a n 2011-2012
Ro rang vdi kich ban 4, lai sua't cd sd theo cong thufc Taylor rd't gdn vdi vdi t r a n lai suat huy dpng la 12%/nam (thdng 5/2012) tUdng ffng mile LSCB 8%/ndm. Viec giam lai suat cd sd tuy thupc vao ti 1§ lam phdt Udc tinh va ti le tang trudng Udc tinh trong ndm 2012. Ne'u ti le tang trudng giam, lai sud't cd sd phai giam. Neu ti 1§
lam phat Udc tinh tdng, lai suat cd sd n&n tang.
Kich bdn 4: (i) r'^=2%/ndm theo nhU gid t h i e t Taylor ve lai suat binh quan thffc t e on dinh qua cac ndm; (ii) Ti lg lam p h d t muc tieu dai b a n , 7r*=5%/nam; (iii) Do ndm 2011 mffc l a m p h a t cao n6n gia, t h i d t lai sua't thffc dm r* d mffc -2%/ndm (tUdng tU kich b a n 3 d n a m 2008 la n a m cd ti le lam p h d t r a t cao);
(iv) Cdng thffc Taylor dp dung quan diem cua Billi (2011); (v) Ti le l a m p h a t udc t i n h n a m 2012 la 9%o/nam va Ti Id t a n g trffdng ffdc t i n h n d m 2012 la 5,7%/ndm theo World Bank (Hd Tu, 2012); (vi) Ti Id t d n g trffdng binh quan
Ngoai ra, cac hg sd' didu chinh do lech mffc gid (a) va dp lech san Iffdng (y) cd the nhSn gid tri khdc nhau ngodi gid t r i 0,5 tff gia thiet cua Taylor (1993). Kozichi (1999) trong nghian cffu cua m i n h da chi r a co nhffng trffdng hep cdc hd sd' didu chinh a vd y n h d n gia tri dm, va cd nhQng gia t r i k h a c n h a u so vdi gid tn 0,5 tff gia thig't Taylor (1993). Kahn (2010) cung dd c^p cdc trffdng hdp cdc cap thdng s6 (a,7) n h u (0,5; 0,5), (0,5; 1). D i i u n a y cho thay viec dp dung cong thffc Taylor la hdt sffc liah h o a t dffa vdo cdc gid t h i e t didu ki^n tinh toan I Congnghe H g a i l h a H Q
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NGHIEN CiifU TRAO DOI « « <
B a n g 7: Chi s o l a m p h a t b i n h qu&n n a m (n^) va D$ l^ch t o n g s a n lifctng t i n h t h e o GDP giai d o a n 2011-2012
Ban vi: tl dong (GDP)
Nam
2011 2012
CPI n a m tru6c
=100 118,58
T I I S l a m p M t
^l^
18,58 9,00
GDP thiJc IM Giii nfim
1994 Y 584,099
hfinh Y 2,097,590
T i l ? t a n g Y(%) 5,89 5,70
GDP t i l m nfing (Ite hoach) Gid nfim
1994 Y»
684,073 Gid hi§n
hanh Y*
2,535,008 T i l e t a n g Y*(%)
6,89 7,30
Do lech sdn luong
yi 0,00 -1,60 Bang 8: Tinh toan lai suat ctf sd theo cong thufc Taylor trong di^u ki^n Vi^t Nam
giai doan 2011-2012 theo kich b ^ 4 N i m
2011 2012
r*
-2,00 2,00
a=0,5 0,5 0,5
If 5,00 5,00
Hi 18,58
9,00 y=o,5
0,5 0,5
y . 0,00 -1,50
it 9,79 8,20 B a n g 9: Sd' l i # u l a i sufi't ccf s d , LSCB t r o n g g i a i d o a n 2011-2012
t h e o k i c h b a n 4
Dan vi tinh: %
N a m (1) 2011 2012
LSCB (21 9,00 8,00
Lai sua't ctf s d (31 9,79 8,20
Lai s u a t ctf s d so vdi L S C B (41=(31-(21
0,79
0,20 1 H i n h 3: D o t h i b i e u d i i n q u a n h^ g i i f a l a i s u a t COF s d ,
L S C B v a L S T C V t h e o k i c h b a n 4
t r e n cd sd dde thu cua tffng thdi ky kinh td Iffdng cua ndn kinh td' theo GDP khid'n cac t i n h todn chffa hoan toan thuyet phuc nhUng viec xac l^p cac gia thidt d i i u ki^n ap dung do'i vdi cdng thffc Taylor dd t i n h lai sud't cd sd t r e n cd sd so s a n h vdi LSCB dffdc quydt dinh bdi NHNN trong giai doan 2005-2010, 2011 va du bao n a m 2012 cho thtfy co sU tUdng vdi cdc he so' didu chinh (a,y) phii hdp.
KS't l u $ n
Tuy t a c gia s^ dung GDP ke' hoach t h a y vi GDP tidm n a n g dd t i n h dg l^ch tong san
congngh^ nQaii hdHg I
S6'77 •Thing 8/2012 I
NGHIEN ciru TRAO DOI
d d n g nhd't d i n h giffa hai mffc lai sud't t r o n g dieu k i ^ n k i n h te Vi?t N a m . Cong thffc Taylor la m o t cdng cu hieu qud giup xdc d i n h mffc lai sua't cd sd hup ly do'i vdi tffng gi^ thie't cu t h e dffdc xdc ldp t r o n g tffng t h d i ky k i n h t d b e n c a n h vi^c N H N N t h a m khdo ldi sud't huy ddng vd cho vay vo'n cua cdc NHTM trfin thi trffdng. Tff dd N H N N cd cd sd n e n t d n g dd thffc thi c h i n h sdch lai sud't nhdm didu tidt h o a t dgng k i n h doanh cua cdc NHTM phuc vu cho muc ti^u kiem sodt lam p h d t vd t d n g trffdng k i n h td' Id hai muc tidu chu ydu cua c h i n h sdch t i e n te dffdc phdn dnh t r o n g cdng thffc Taylor. T r e n cd sff lai sud't cd sd da dffdc xdc d i n h , N H N N xdy dung mdi quan h? giffa
lai sudit cd sd vd LSCB cung nhU cdc loai lai sud't khdc n h u LSTCV, lai sud't huy d o n g , lai sud't cho vay von dd kidm sodt vd dieu hdnh c h i n h sdch lai sud't, c h i n h sdch t i e n tg m0t cdch l i n h b o a t , hi^u qu^ vd kip t h d i dd'i vdi tffng t h d i ky, dde b i ^ t giup d d m bdo cdc muc tidu k i n h td' n g d n b a n phu h d p vdi muc tieu chid'n Iffdc p h d t t r i e n k i n h te xa hgi d a i han.
A n h h u d n g ciia c h i n h sdch lai sud't do^i vdi nen k i n h t d ndi chung vd cdc t h d n h p h i n k i n h te, cd n h d n ndi r i § n g Id k h d n g n h d . Do v^y, neu quydt sdch ve ldi sudft m a n g t i n h k h o a hgc vk t h u y e t phuc cao se n h d n dUdc n h i e u sff dong t h u d n vd n h u v^y vi^c dieu h d n h ndn kinh td se t h u d n Idi vd hi?u qud h d n "
T a i l i ^ u t h a m k h a o
1. Bilti. R., M. (2011) Output Gaps and Monetary Policy at Low Interest Rates. The Frederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Economic Review. First Quarter 2011
2. Francesco. A., r.. Kahn. A.. G. & Leeson, n. (2010). The Taylor Rule & the Pratice of Central Banking. RWP 1005, The Frederal Reserve bank of Kansas City, Economic Review Department.
J. Ha Ta (2012) WB du bdo tdng trudng kinh t^ Viet Nam dat 5,7%. http:/ /vov vnlHomelWB-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh- te-Viet-Nam-dat-S7/20125/210979.vov.
4. Judd. J . P.& Rudebusch, G., D. (1998) Taylors Rule and the Fed 1970-1997. FRBSF Economic Review 1998, numberS.
5. Kahn, G., A . (2010). Taylor Rule Deviations & Financial Imbalances. The Frederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Eco- nomic Review, Second Quarter 2010.
6. Kozicki, S. (1999). How Useful Are Taylor Rules for Monetary Policy?. The Frederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Eco- nomic Review, Second Quarter 1999.
7. Mishkm, F., S. (2004). The Economics of Money. Banking and Fiancial markets. 7th Edition, The Addison-Wesley series in economics a 79 393
o. Nguyin Vdn Hieu (2011). Cdn hiiu dung cdc lo^i ldi sud't cdng bd'. http:11www.vnbaorg.infoIao-to-tuyn-dngloo- to11563-cn-hiu-ung-cac-loi-lai-sut-cong-b, truy cap ngdy 1710512012.
9. Taylor, J., B. (1993). Discretion versus Policy Rules in Pratices, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39 (1993) 195-214 Noth-Holland
10 World Bank (2011). Bdo cdo phdt trign Viet Nam ndm 2012, Kmh ti thf trUdng khi Viit Nam trd thdnh quic gia ti thu nhdp trung binh, cda cdc nhd tdi trp tai Hdi nghi Nhdm tu vd'n cdc nhd tdi trg, ngdy 0611212011.
I Congnghe n Q ^ n h a H Q IS6'77 •Thing 8/2012
