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Hhin nhdn chit iUdng tang trudng idnh t i VIdt Nam td gde dd cd oiu nganh kinh t i
PGS.TS. LE HUY BIJC
Triidng Oai hpc Kinh te quoc dan
Sau 25 nam thue hien cong cuoc ddi m a i , dac biet sau 10 nam thue hien chien luge phat trign k i n h te xa hoi 2001 - 2010, n§n k i n h te nude ta da dat duge n h u n g thanh tuu quan trong, toe do tang trudng k i n h te b i n h quan giai doan 2001 - 2005 la 7,5%/nam va giai doan 2006 - 2010 la 7%/nam. Tinh ehung ca thdi ky 2001 - 2010, tang trudng k i n h te' trung b i n h hang nam dat 7,26%. Day la n h u n g toe do tang trudng thuoc loai cao so vdi eae nude trong k h u vuc va the gidi trong eung k h o a n g thdi gian. Tuy nhien, chat l u g n g tang trudng kinh te hien dang noi len n h i e u van de dang quan tam: hieu qua thap, ca cau kinh te chuye'n dich cham, nang lue canh tranh eua n I n k i n h te' chua eao...
Thue trang chat lugng tang truong kinh te Viet Nam dudi g6c nhin ccr cau kinh te
Nhin lai ting trudng v i chit lugng tang trudng kinh te ciia Viet Nam faang hon 20 nam qua eho thay, Viet Nam da dat duge nhiing thinh tuu to Idn ve kinh te. Die biet, qua hai giai doan khiing hoang kinh te khu vuc v i the gidi nam 1997-1999 v i 2008-2009, Viet Nam van giii duge toe dp ting trudng kinh te khdng qua thap, d diy khiing hoang vio nam 1999 li 4,8% v i 2009 la 5,3%, ddng thdi, dat duge phuc hdi tang trudng nhanh vio n i m sau li 6,8% (nim 2000) v i 6,78% (nim 2010).
Nhd tdc dp tang trudng kinh te cao, quy md GDP eiia Viet Nam ting len nhanh chdng, n i m 2005 da gap 3 lan n i m 1990. Thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi tang tii 195 USD nam 1990 len 729 USD nam 2006, n i m 2007 dat 820 USD v i n i m 2010 dat 1260 USD. Ting trudng kinh t l da tic ddng tich cue d i n nhilu mat ciia ddi sdng kinh t l xa hdi. Ty le dan sdng dudi miic 1 USD/ngay va 2 USD/ngay (tinh theo PPP) lin lugt giim hi 50,8% va 87,0% vio nam 1990 xudng cdn 10,6% v i 53,4% v i o n i m 2004. Ty le hp ngh^P n i m 2010 d i giim xud'ng edn 10,6% so vdi 12,3% nam 2009. Ngoii ra, cac v i n d l xa hpi khae nhu giio due, y tl, bao ve mdi trudng ciing dat duge nhieu thinh tuu. Theo y kien ciia nhieu chuyen gia kinh tl, sd di cd duge tdc dp tang tudng kinh te kha eao nhu vay la nhd Viet Nam da huy dpng dugc lupng vdn d i u tu kha Idn trong nhieu nim. Ty faong vdn d i u tu faen GDP Uen tue gia tang, nam 1990 dat 17,3%, tii nam 2004 d i n nay ludn dat faen 40%, cu the nam 2004 dat 40,7%, n i m
2007 dat 40,4%, n i m 2009 dat 42,8% va nam 2010 dat 41,9%. Trong 10 n i m 2001-2010, tdng vdn diu tu xa hpi tang trung binh faen 12%/nam. So vdi cie nude faong khu vuc va cic nude dang phit faien faen thi gidi, Viet Nam duge xIp vio loai nude cd ty fapng vdn d i u tu faen GDP eao.
v l chat lupng ting trudng kinh te, md hinh ting trudng thdi gian qua ehii yeu van tang trudng theo chilu rdng, mac dii ddng gdp eiia nhan td TFP cd tang din qua cie nam nhung vdi tdc dp cham.
Nguyen nhan li dp trinh dp edng nghe lac hau, hieu qui Sli dung vdn dau tu dat thip va chit lupng lao ddng han che. Ning lue canh faanh aia nen kinh te dat thap. Dien din kinh tl thi gidi (WEF) faong Bio cao Canh faanh toan eau 2008-2009 da xep ning lue canh faanh ciia Viet Nam diing thii 70 faong tdng sd 134 qude gia, vdi 4,1 dilm. Rieng he sd canh faanh ve edng nghe, Viet Nam xIp thii 79, vdi 3,12 diem.
Trong khi dd Malaysia: 4,41 diem; Thii Lan: 337 diem; PhOipines: 3,26 diem. Trinh dp cdng nghe sii dung thap keo theo nang suit lao ddng xa hpi thip.
Nlu coi nang suit lao ddng xa hpi eiia Viet Nam = 1, thi Trung Qude = 1,73, Thii Lan = 3,63 v i Singapore = 39,05.
Sau 20 nam, co cau kinh te ngirJi eua Viet Nam tuy ed chuyen dich nhung vdi tdc dp cham, v i ed die diem kha khae biet so vdi qua trinh chuyen dich co eau kinh t l eiia cie nude. Ty fapng nginh Ndng nghiep giam xudng hon 18% diem faong ca thdi ky, ty trpng nginh Cdng nghiep tang len vdi nhip dp tuong ling, trong khi ty fapng nginh Dich vu hau nhu khdng cd thay ddi li may,
2 2 C4KCKCHltP»Ky 1, thang 5/2011 Website: www.tapchicongnghiep.vn
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giao ddng d miic faen 38% faong tdng GDP (keo dai gin mdt thap ky).
Nginh Cdng nghiep tuy cd nhip dp ting faudng cao, nhd dd gia ting ty fapng nhanh faong ea ciu GDP, tuy nhien, ting trudng ciia Nginh lai chii yeu dua vio md rpng quy md vdn d i u tu, faong dd bao gdm phan niia la vdn d i u tu nude ngoai. Dilu dang ehii y l i faong ndi bd nginh Cdng nghiep md rdng, CO ciu cac phan nganh gin nhu it thay ddi sau gin mdt thap ky.Trong vdng 7 nam ( 2004-2010), ty fapng cac phan nginh khai thic, chi biln, dien- nudc v i xay dung gin nhu khdng cd su thay ddi, tham ehi nginh cdng nghiep chi biln phan nio cd xu hudng giam siit. Nhu vay, nganh Cdng nghiep vdi vai fad d i u tiu faong ting faudng kinh t l cung nhu thiic day qui trinh chuyen dich co ciu kinh tl, song lai td ra it biln ddi tham chi tdi miie tri fae. Vdi cic sd lieu thdng ke eiing cho thay, dudng nhu ting faudng kinh t l ciia nganh Cdng nghiep faong sudt thdi ky d i i ed dugc la kit qua ting faudng thep kieu "din h i n g ngang ma tiln" ciia cic phan nginh, d day ta thay thieu mpt su dot p h i trong cocau. Ve fainh dp cdng nghe, cd the ndi, den nay, nen edng nghiep Viet Nam chua cd kha nang che tao dugc chiec ddng eaxe miy, hay ddng ea d to,...
Thue te, nginh Cdng nghiep lac hau v i cham biln ddi nhu vay da khdng thi ed duge nhiing tie ddng hd fag tich cue eho cac nganh Ndng nghiep v i Dich vu, can fad ca he thdng nen kinh te ting faudng cham lai v i phai duong dau vdi nguy co thieu ben viing faong dii han.
Nganh Ndng nghiep nude ta faong thdi ky ddi mdi da dat duge rJiiing thinh tuu to Idn, gdp phin dn dinh ddi sdng va ddng gdp tich cue vio xuat khau. Tuy nhien, tdc dp tang trudng ciia ndng nghiep van edn thap so vdi tiem ning, fainh dp edng nghe thap v i eo cau cdn lac hau. Su chuyen dich CO ciu ndi bd nganh Ndng nghiep thdi gian qua cung diln ra hit siie cham chap, v i chua cho thiy diu hieu nio ciia su dot p h i di len. Sau nhieu nim, ty le cic phan nginh h i u nhu it biln ddi, khdng ed xu the rd ring.
Ve nginh Dich vu, ty fapng aia Nganh faong sudt 20 nam qua giii d con sd 38,1- 38,7% GDP.
Ngoai txii cic n i m diy eiia 2 ky khiing hoang, nhin ehung tdc dp ting trudng aia nginh Dich vu giii dupc d miic dn dinh 7-8%/ nim, tuong duong nhip dp ting trudng ehung ciia nen kinh tl. Co cau ndi bd nginh Dich vu cd su chuyen dich nhit dinh v i theo xu thi tich cue, song tdc dp chuyin dich edn cham.
Tli su phin tich faen day eho thiy co ciu nganh kinh te nude ta ciing nhu ca ciu ndi bd cic nganh faong mpt thdi gian dai li khi tid fae. Nguyen nhan ciia
tinh hinh faen li thilu mdt chiln lupc v i quy hpach tdng thi ed tim nhin dai han, xuyen sudt. Viee hinh thanh co ciu kinh t l faang nhiing nam qua cdn mang tinh cue bd nginh va dia phucmg, nhim phuc vu cho cac lpi ich cue bd va ngan han. Tim nhin ca ciu kinh te ciia ehiing ta cdn han ehi, thilu tu duy toin cue, vi thi khdng theo kip cie xu hudng phat trien edng nghe eiing nhu nguyen ly phit trien kinh te hien dai. Biic faanh chung vl co ciu kinh tl nginh li chua tao ra dupc cie nginh, phan nginh, cic ca sd kinh te ed vai fad d i u tau, ddng vai fad chii dao thiic day ting trudng va tao ddng luc thiic day cac nganh v i phan nganh khic.
Ket luan va mot vai kien nghi
Ting trudng kinh t l cd duge faong thdi gian qua ehii yeu li nhd vio cic giai phip tinh the nhim khie phue nhirng fad ngai cue bd ddi vdi cac bd phan rieng re ciia nen kinh tl; faong khi gidd han tang trudng theo chieu rdng ciia cic nginh van edn cd the khai thac dupe d miie dp nhat dinh. Ngay ea khi nen kinh te the gidi rod vao khiing hoang, bang cic giii phip tinh the aia N h i nude, nen kinh te nude ta van duy fai duge tdc dp ting faudng faung binh, cao han nhieu so vdi nhieu nude fapng khu vuc v i faen thi gidi, nhung dilu niy ehi dat duge faong ngan han. Tuy nhien, xet ve dii han, de dam bao tang trudng eao v i ben viing, nhat thiet phai chii fapng nang eao chat lupng ting trudng kinh te.
Dd khdng the la edng viec ngiy mdt ngiy hai, mi li mpt qui fainh thue hien lau dii, kien tri vi phai bit dau ngay tii bay gid. Dieu quan fapng li phii phi vd faang thai ngung dpng, it bien ddi hien nay, xic lap faang thii nIn kinh te mdi chira dung cic nhin td cho phep de ding thich ling vdi nhirng bien ddi Idn nhu khung hoang kinh te the gidi, bien ddi khi hau toin cau, khiing hoang nang lugng... ddng thdi, tap ra cic khau dot phi, thiie day ting trudng.
Dd ehinh la qui fainh co eau lai nen kinh te, hoin thien co ciu kinh tl. Qua fainh hoin thien ca ciu kinh tl d nude ta thdi gian tod hudng vio viec dam bao ting trudng kinh te ben viing can dupc thue hien thep cic ndi dung sau day:
Mdt li, tap trung cap dp ngudn lue, bao gdm ngudn lire n h i nude v i tu nhan d l hinh thinh cic phan nginh, cic co sd sin xuit che tao chii dao ed siie vuon tdi va lan tda thue su. De thue hien ndi dung niy, ein manh dan thue hien vdi thai dp phan biet ddi xii d mdt miic dp cho phep vl cic bien phap uu tien die biet faen phucmg dien cac chinh sich hd fag de hinh thinh cho dupc faong mdt thdi gian nhiing khu vuc faong dilm, ddn dau vl edng nghe hien dai d l dan dat cic khu vuc khic eua nen kinh te.
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NGHIEN Cmi TRilODdl
Hai la, qua trinh ca eau lai nen kinh te theo nganh can dugc tien hanh ddng bd vdi su chuyen dich eo eau viing lanh thd, chuyen dich ca cau kinh te doanh nghiep; chuyen dich co ciu vdn; chuyen dich CO ciu lao ddng; chuyen dich co ciu thi trudng, CO eau the che kinh tl. Muc tieu ciia q u i trinh hoin thien co eau kinh te nhu vay li hudng vio viec ting eudng kha n i n g thich ling ciia nIn kinh te trudc nhiing biln dpng b i t Igi ciia nen kinh te the gidd, ciia khiing hoang n i n g lugng v i su bien ddi khi hau toin ciu.
Ba la, hoin thien ea eau kinh te, trudc h i t la co cau nginh can die biet ehii fapng tang nang suit dat dai v i ning suit faen bien, thim luc dia, lam sap faen mdi don vi dien tich dat dai, vung bien ngiy eing thu dugc nhieu gii fai s i n lupng hing hoa ed kha ning canh faanh faen thi faudng.
Bdn la, eo eau kinh te hoin thien can dam bao nang cao ning suit lao ddng faen eo sd nang eao chat lugng lao ddng, i p dung tien bd khoa hpe cdng nghe thich hgp vdi tiing nginh, tiing linh vuc v i tiing CO sd san xuat kinh doanh.
Nam la, md hinh ca cau kinh te hudng tdi cin dugc hoin thien theo hudng ting hieu qua sii dung chi phi vdn, tii nguyen, tiet kiem ning lupng, bap d i m an sinh x i hdi, bao ve va cii thien mdi trudng.
Cudi eUng, de thue hien thanh cdng q u i trinh hoin thien co eau kinh te, vai fad eiia the che kinh te xi hdi li het siic quan fapng. Tiep tue hoin thien thi che kinh t l xa hdi li nhiem vu ed tinh cap bach nhim tao ddng luc thue hien qui trinh hoin thien
CO cau kinh te, md dudng cho tang trudng kinh te.
Mue tieu dat ra li xay dung mdt thi che dii manh, dli ning luc dinh hudng thi trudng, tao dn dinh kinh t l Vl md, p h i t huy day dii cic yeu td ngudn lue eho ting trudng kinh te ea faong giai doan trudc m i t eiing nhu trong dai han. Ndi dung hoin thien the che can hudng manh vio viee cai tiln cdng tie quy hoach v i ke hoach, hoin thien chinh sach va phap luat phii hgp vdi yeu cau hoin thien CO eau kinh te, su dimg Unh hoat cac edng eu kinh te Vl md (chinh sich tien te, chinh sich tii khda, ehinh sich chi tieu v i chinh sach xuat nhap khau) tao mdi trudng thuan Ipd d i m bao ting trudng kinh te nhanh, hieu qua v i ben viing.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
(1) E. Wayne Nafziger: Kinh te hoc cua cac nuoc dang phat trien - NXB Thdng ke. 1998
(2) Tong cue Thdng ke Viet Nam, Website:
www.gso.gov. vn
(3) Nguyin Van Nam va Trin Tho Dat (2006), Tdc do va chat lugng tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam, Nxb.
DM Kinh te Qude dan.
(4) Trin Xuan Gia. http://vovnews.vn (03/2/2011).
(5) Dang Cong san Viet Nam: Chien luocphat trien kinh te- xa hqi 2011-2020.
(6) Dang Thi Loan, Li Du Phong, Hoang Van Hoa:
Knh te Viet Nam 20 nam ddi mdi- Thanh tuu va nhiing van di dat ra.NXB Dai hoc Kinh te quo'c din, HN,2006.
(7) Dinh Vin An, Le Xuan Bi: Tiep tuc xay dung va hoan thien the che kinh te thi trudng dinh hudng xa hoi chu nghia a Viet Nam, NXB Khoa hoc va Ky thuat, HN2003.
ve chai lirang tang trirang cua nganh Cong Thvong...
(Tiep theo trang 21) pham ehien luge n h i m sdm tao nen nhiingthucmg hieu manh tren thi trudng qude te; ddng thdi sdm xay dung mpt sd cum edng nghiep hd fag, cic khu edng nghiep (KCN) chuyen n g i n h cd edng nghe eao, n h i m tan dung uu the ciia su chuyen mdn hoa v i sii dung san pham thii cip eiia nhau, tao nen san pham cd gii tri cao, kha ning canh tranh Idn.
- Sdm xay dung va failn khai mdt chien luge chuyen dich co ciu san pham cdng nghiep, gin vdi chiln luge xuit khiu, theo hudng phat huy cao nhiing san p h i m dang cd Igi the canh faanh v i tap dung dilu kien phit trien eho nhiing sin p h i m dang cd Igi thi so sanh.
- Xay dung mdt danh muc nhiing du i n cdt loi se dau tiJ de p a i t faien cdng nghiep hd fag faong 5 nam tdi va cd chinh sach thda dang v l ngudn vdn. Cling nhu ein cd su chi dao quylt Uet, d l t i p
trung d i u tu nhanh, diit dilm, tao budc ngoit cho su phat trien nganh ed chat lugng v i viing chac.
- Ri soat va danh gia lai trinh dp edng nghe ciia cac nginh sin xuat, trudc mit tap trung mdt sd nginh cdng nghiep che bien, de xic dinh nhu eau ddi mdi cdng nghe, tir dd xay dung mdt Id trinh thue hien, eung nhu xay dung co chi, ehinh sach tao ngudn luc (ci tien vdn v i eon ngudi) de trien khai.
- Phdi hgp vdi Bd Kl hoach v i D i u tu, ca quan duge Chinh phii giao d i m nhan chiic nang quan ly n h i nude ve fag giiip phit faien doanh nghiep vTia v i nhd (DNWN) faien khai tdt cic co ehi, chinh sich da dugc ghi trong Nghi dinh 56/2009/ND-CP ngiy 30/6/2009 n h i m nang cao nang luc san xuat kinh doanh khdi cic doanh nghiep niy, trong dd ed viec tham gia faong sin xuat cie san p h i m edng nghiep hd fag, theo tinh than Quyet dinh 12 eiia Thii tudng Chinh phii./.
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