DUf BAO GIA VANG THE Gltfl THANG 8/2011:
TIEP TUC TANG TRtfflfC KHI CO DtfT DIEU C H I N H GIAM
NGUYEN TH! BICH HOA vd cong sd Chi nhdnh tai Thdnh pho' Hd Chi Minh,
Trung tdm Thdng tin vd Du bdo kinh te - xd hQi qudc gia
1 . Dien bien gia vang the gidi thang 6 va 3 tuan dau thang 7/2011
Gia vang the gidi thang 6/2011: Giam dieu chinh
Thang 6/2011, gid vang the gidi md eda tai 1.535,51 USD/ounce va ddng eda d mdc 1.499,55 USD/ounce, tiep tue mat them 2,3% gia tri so vdi gid ddng cda thdng 5/2011 (1.535,40 USD/ounce). Mdc tha'p nha't trong thang Id 1.490,60 USD/ounce vd cao nhat la 1.558,00 USD/ounce, ghi nhan thang thd hai gidm dieu ehinh.
Trong tuan dau thdng 6, gid vang da tang manh td 1.519 USD/ounce len mdc 1.550 USD/ounce trade nhdng thdng tin xau ve ty le that nghiep tdng 9 , 1 % va edng bd' eda Bd Lao dpng My ve viee thay ddi bdng Iddng phi ndng nghiep dd day dong USD gidm ve mdc tha'p 73,77 diem. Trong tuan thd hai cua thang 6, viec quy giao djch vang Idn nha't the gidi SPDR Cold Trust ban hdn 10,61 td'n vang dd tac dpng len tam ly ban ra eua cae nha dau td, eung vdi dd la vi0e gid dau gidm, gid dong USD
In June 2011, world gold price opened at 1,535.51 USD per ounce and closed at 1,499.55 USD per ounce, losing 2.3% of Its value against closing price of May 2011 and recording second downward adjusted month. In first three weeks of July, world gold price strongly rose com- pared with its opening price due to bad information from US labour market and nonagrlcultural wage and salary tables.
Using technical analysis, August is expected to be a downward adjusted month once closing price of July ends below 1,610 USD per ounce and fluctuates between ranges of 1,629 to 1,560 USD per ounce.
However, It Is highly likely that gold price would rise before falling down.
In domestic market, most investors sold out when gold price hit record, while buy In volume has been low with wait and see attitude of investors before new globai financial Information is announced. Those investors who sold out at 38 millions VND per tael showed their regret since gold market appeared to rise further.
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tdng manh da khien gia vang gidm ve 1.510,65 USD/ounce. Tuan thd ba eua thdng 6, gid vdng dot ngdt tang manh, trd lai mdc 1.541,90 USD/ounce roi ddng eda d mdc 1.538,45 USD/ounce, do ddng thdi mua vdo 9,1 ta'n vang eua Quy SPDR da dda Idpng nam gid vang cua Quy ndy len mdc 1.209,142 tan. Ben eanh dd, noi lo ngai ve tinh hinh np cdng eua Hy Lap va nen kinh te khu vde Philadelphia (My) gidm 7,7%, mdc thap nha't ke td thdng 7/2009, eung da tde dpng den viec tdng gid trd lai eua kim loai quy ndy.
T u i n thd td va nhdng ngdy eudi thdng 6, gid vdng gidm manh trddc sd tang gia manh cua dong USD. Ket thue tuan (20/6-24/6), gid vang giao thdng 8 tren san Comex gidm 2,48% gid tri, xud'ng edn 1.500,9 USD/ounce. Gid bac giao thdng 7 ha 3 , 1 % gid tri, xud'ng con 34,638 USD/ounce. Sau khi tang len vd dat mdc eao nha't cua thang d 1.558 USD/ounce, gia vang lien tiep lao ddc xud'ng mdc tha'p 1.490,60 USD/ounce va ddng eda tai 1.499,55 USD/ounce. Ben canh dd, viee gdi QE2 ket thue ngay 30/6 khien dong USD tdng gid; ehi sd gid tieu dung
S6' 67 (7.2011) THONG TIN & Di; BAO KINH Tt - XA HOI
19
PHAN TICH & Da BAO KINH TE
(CPI) eua My tang deu; nhu edu d i u td vao vdng gidm khi Hy Lap thdng qua bien phdp e i t gidm ehi tieu de ddpc vien trp qudc te, trdnh nguy ed vd np; Quy SPDR ban ra 3,4 tan vang... da khien gid vdng gidm manh.
DiSn bien gia vang the gidi 3 tuin dau thing 7/2011
M d cda thdng 7/2011 tai 1.499,50 USD/ounce, gia vang xud'ng mdc tha'p nha't tai 1.477.90 USD/ounce trong ngdy d i u tien roi lien tue tang trong 11 ngay sau dd va den ngay 1 9/7 da thiet lap mdc ky lue eao ehda tdng CO tai 1.609,95 USD/ounce (phd vd ky luc cu tai 1.574,85 USD/ounce cua ngdy 02/5/2011), sau dd gidm xud'ng mdc 1.482,30 USD/ounce va dao ddng quanh mdc 1.590 USD/ounce. Trong 3 t u i n dau thang 7, gia vang da tang rat manh so vdi gid md eda. Thdng tin xa'u td thi trddng viec lam, bdng Iddng phi ndng nghiep cua M y ddpc cdng b d cudi tuan dau tien da day gia vang tang manh va day eung la t u i n tang manh nha't trong vong 19 thang qua'" Thdng tin khdng may sdng sua ve thi trddng viec lam cung vdi viee tang np tran eua My eho tha'y kha nang phuc hoi cua nen kinh te hang d i u the gidi edn gap rat nhieu khd khan eung nhd ehda ddng nhieu rui ro, da tao nen dp Idc giam gia dong USD va tdc ddng manh len tam ly eua ede nha d i u td tren thj trddng vdng.
Tuan thd hai eua thdng 7, gid vdng the gidi khdng ngdng tang va ghi nhan nhdng md'e ky luc mdi. Viee nang np t r i n eua M y gap khd khan va ehdPng trinh mua trai phieu - gdi QE3 ed khd nang dape trien khai da tiep cho da tang eua gid vang. Phat bieu vd dieu t r i n cua chu tich Cue Dd trd Lien bang My (FED) va van de np cdng eua chau Au eung tdc ddng khdng nho tdi tam ly thj trddng. Khung hoang np cua Hy Lap ed the lan rdng qua Italia, khien vang v i n gid td't vai trd Id " h i m trd I n an toan" hdn bao gid het vdi eac nhd d i u td. Quy dau t d t i n thde SPDR mua vao 20 tan vang, da trdc tiep day gid vdng tang cao.
Vdi nhdng dien bien neu tren, gid vang trong nhdng ngdy cddi thdng 7 se rat khd gidm sau vd khd ndng tang ed the tl;ia'y khd rd.
2. Thong tin anh hddng tdi gia vang the gidi thang 8 / 2 0 1 1 : Gia vang se tiep tue tang trddc khi co ddt dieu chinh giam
Cac yeu to' ning dd da tang cua gia vang
Neu M y khdng dat ddpc thda thuan ve viec nang han mdc vay np den het ngdy 02/8, Chinh phu M y se phdi dd'i mat vdi khd khan khdn Iddng vl M y se phdi tuyen b d ngdng chi trd mdt sd khodn np den han. Dieu ndy se ed tde ddng rat Idn tdi thj trddng tai ehinh toan c l u . Tfn hieu ddpc phdt di td FED eho tha'y, cho dd ed hay khdng goi dinh Idpng kinh te QE3 thi cung ed the ed mot bien phap hd trp kinh te khde tddng dddng QE3 da va dang tdc ddng khien cho vang tang gid. Ben eanh dd, mdi lo ngai lam phdt gia tang eung la nguyen nhan d i n den da tang cua gid vdng bdi theo truyen thdng, vdng dape coi Id hdng rao chdng lai lam phdt, do dd, ngadi dan co nhu cau d i u ta vdo vdng de tranh rui ro.
Cac yeu to' ung ho da giam cua gia vang
Gid vdng cd the gidm khi viec dam phdn ndng np t r i n eua My dat dape thda thudn. Chinh phu M y se phdi lam mpi edeh de nang np t r i n , dong USD se tang gid, ap Idc tam ly cua cde nha d i u tddddc gidi tda, do dd se han ehe da tdng eua gid vang; ehi sd ehdng khoan Dow Jones, S&P 500 ed khd ndng tdng diem va thu hut mdi quan tam cua gidi d i u td; d i u thd co
'" Ty 1$ thdt ngtii^p ttidng 6 dd tang len 9 2%so vdi 9,1% c u a ttidng 5, sd vl$c Idm mdi tang thSm rd't thdp so vdi ky vpng.
2 0 THONG TIN & DL/BAO KINH T I - XA HOI So 67 (7.2011)
khd ndng gidm gia; ty le lam phdt d khu vdc ehdu Au ha nhiet; cdc cdng ty khai thde vang md rdng sdn xua't nharri tim kiem ede mo vdng mdi d i n ddn mdt ngu6n cung ca'p Idn hdn lam ha nhiet sdc tdng eda gid vdng Mat khae, gid vang da tang qud cao so vdi gia trj thde eda nd. Chi trong thdi gian 6 nam, td thdng 6/2004 tdi thang 7/2011, g.d vang da tang t d mdc 393,30 USD/ounce len 1.609,90 USD/ounce, tang 309,33% gid trj
Ngoa, eae thdng tin ve t i i n te, hdng hda, thdi tidt... lam anh hddng tdi gia vang trong thang 8, nhdng thdng tm ddd, ddy eung ed dnh hddng rd't Idn tdi gid tri ddng USD, theo dd se dnh hddng tdi da tang, gidm eua gid vdng-
Chl so san xuat ISM do Iddng hoat dpng cda ede doanh nghiep trong khu vdc sdn xua't eua My se ddpc cong bd vdo ngdy 01/8 t d i , gdm cdc d d lieu v l edng an viec Idm, sdn xud't, cdc ddn ddt hang mdi, gid ed va nguon cung, ngudn d d trd cdc loai nguyen vdt lieu cd bdn. Sd tang len eda ISM cho tha'y d6ng USD dang manh dan len, vdng cd thd gidm vd ngddc lai. Thay ddi vide lam phi ndng nghidp do hang ADP edng bd ngay 3/8 vd 31/8. Chi sd phi san xua't ISM tddng td nha ehi sd sdn xua't ISM, nhang ngoai trd ngdnh edng nghiep sdn xua't. Dan xin tra ca'p tha't nghiep: sd ngadi l i n d i u tien xin trp e l p tha't nghiep tinh trong t u i n trddc, ddpc edng b d hdng t u i n (4/8).
Thay ddi viec lam phi ndng nghidp: thay ddi sd ngddi ed edng an viee Idm trong thdng trddc, ngoai trd khu Vde ndng nghiep. Tin ndy edn gpi Id Bang Iuang phi ndng nghiep. Tin ndy ra't quan trpng, vi viee tao edng an viee lam keo theo thay ddi v l Idpng t i l n dd vdo tieu dung - vdn la d i u tdu cua hoat ddng kinh td.
Ty le that nghiep (5/8).
Nhang quye't dinh vS lai suS't cua FOMC (10/8); Ty gia cho vay qua ddm cua Ngan hang Trung uang My 00/8); Can can thuang mai (11/8); Tin thi't nghidp (11/8, 18/8, 25/8); Doanh sd ban le Idi cua My;
NiSm tin tidu dung cua Dai hoc Michigan (12/8).
Bao cao ddng luin chuySn vd'n diu tU dki han vao he thdng tai chinh My (15/8); Giay phep xiy dUng hang thing (16/8); Chl sd gia san xui't tai My (17/8); Chl sd gii tidu dung Idi cua My (18/8); Doanh sd ban nha sin cd (18/8); Nha mdi ban (23/8); GDP Udc tinh khu vuc; Chi sd dinh gii doanh sd nha chd ban cua My (29/8) vd NiSm tin tieu dCing cua CB tai My (30/8)...
3. N h | n djnh gia vang thang 8/2011 theo phan tfch ky thuat va chien liTdc giao djch
Thdng 6/2011, gid vdng md cda tai mdc 1.535,51 USD/ounce, ddng eda d mdc 1.499,55 USD/ounce.
Mdc tha'p nha't d 1.490,60 USD/ounce, cao nha't d 1.558,00 USD/ounce, ghi nhan thdng gidm dieu chinh.
Bieu dd 1 : Bieu dd phan^tich ky thuat du" bao gia vang theo thang
Stf 67 (7.2011) THONG TIN SDU BAD KINH T I - X A HQI 21
PHAN TICH & DU BAO KINH
Trong thdng 7, khd ndng gid vdng se tiep tue gidm v l quanh mdc 1.560 USD/ounce trddc khi tang trd lai va cd khd nang ddng eda trong vung 1.609-1.629 USD/ounce, ghi nhan mdt thdng tang manh vdi nhdng ky luc cao ehda tdng eo. Mdc 1.650 USD/ounce Id mdc khang ed xa hdn nhdng it ed khd ndng dat ddpc vd khd ed the vdpt qua ddpc mdc nay. Vung gid ndy cung dddc ddnh gid la vung gid vang dang xdc lap dinh trddc khi bddc vao mpt chu ky giam trong trung va dai han. Dieu ndy the hien khd rd khi gid da tang trong mdt chu ky trong kenh gid keo dai td rat nhieu ndm, tfnh td thdng 6/2004, khi gid vang mdi ehi d mdc 393,30 USD/ounce.
Bieu do 2: Bieu do phan tfch ky thuat dd bao gia vang theo tuan
oom.w^Uv 1596.00 len w isc JO UU.GS
Linda
Gid vang thang 8/2011 cd the se Id mdt thdng giam neu gia ddng eda thdng 7 nam dddi 1.610 USD/ounce va dao ddng hai chieu trong bien dp 1.629-1.560 USD/ounce. Khd nang tdng trddc khi gidm la khd cao. Tai bie'd dd thang, ehi bdo Stochastic (ehi sd can bdn nhdn biet khdynh hddng vd sd dao c h i l d cua thj trddng) cat nhau gida dddng nhanh vd dddng chdm tren vung qua mua hddng xud'ng cho tha'y tfn hieu giam. Tuy nhien, ehi bdo M A C D tai bieu dd t u i n vd thang v i n dang cho tfn hieu tang gia khi dddng xu hadng ehda eat qua M A C D ma van hddng len. Xu hddng tang ehda han dd cham ddt, nha't Id trong trddng hpp gia vang thdng 7 ddng cda tren mdc 1.610 USD/ounce vd nam quanh mdc 1.629 USD/ounce, gid vang thdng 8 cd the dat mdc 1.647 USD/ounce trddc khi gidm v l mdc 1.589 USD/ounce roi dao ddng hai c h i l u trong bien dp nay.
Tuy theo mdc gid ddng eda nhd dd phan tfch d tren, nhd d i u t d trung, ddi han ed the canh ban tai cac mdc 1.647 USD/ounce vd 1.628 USD/ounce, eat Id (ddng bdn) khi gid vdng pha len tren mdi mdc 7 gia (cat tai 1.635 USD/ounce eho diem bdn 1.628 USD/ounce; cat tai 1.654 USD/ounce cho diem ban 1.647 USD/ounce), ehdt Idi quanh mdc 1.590-1.570 USD/ounce vd 1.560 USD/ounce. Trddc d d , canh mua tren mdc 1.560 USD/ounce, ddng Id (ddng mua) khi gid phd xud'ng dddi 1.550 USD/ounce, chdt Idi quanh mdc 1.600- 1.608 USD/ounce vd 1.628 USD/ounce.
4. Tac dgng den gia vang trong nddc
Gia vdng Viet Nam bdm kha sat da tang eua gid vang the gidi va hien dang dao ddng quanh mdc 39,54 trieu dong/lddng, mdc gia cao ehda tdng cd va dddng nhd ehda cd dau hieu ddng lai d con sd nay. Ty gia USD binh quan lien ngan hdng duy tri quanh mdc 20.608 VND/USD. Da p h i n ede nha d i u td Viet Nam eo tdm ly bdn ra khi gia vang tdng cao, Idpng mua vdo rdi rdc, e l m ehdng de chd dpi thdng tin them v l t i i h hinh tdi chinh the gidi, sd ddng ban ra quanh mdc 38 trieu dong/lddng thi to ra tide nudi vi bdn qud re trong khi thj trddng vdng vdn.ed xu hddng tdng tiep.D
22 THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH Tt - XA HOI SO'67 (7.2011)
