OUAlM T R I IMSAlM HANCB SL IDaAIMH N S H I E P
Cac nliaa to 4ati hiiToiiig dea chinti !&acb chi tra CQ tutc cua cac coag ty niem yIt tien tb| t i l i n g ctiutng kbaan Viet Nam
Quyet dinh chinh sdch co tuc la mot trong ba quyit dinh quan trong nhdt trong cong tdc qudn tri tdi chinh doanh nghiep (ben cgnh cdc quyit dinh ddu tu vd quyet dinh tdi tra).
Chinh sdch co tire co nhimg tdc dong rdt l&n din qud trinh hogt dong, tdn tgi vdphdt triin ciia doanh nghiip tren nhieu phucmg diin. Xdc dinh dugrc cdc nhdn to dnh hu&ng din chinh sdch co tire se giilp cho doanh nghiep xdy dung duac mot chinh sdch co tiec hgp ly.
Nghiin ciru ndy tap trung phdn tich cdc nhdn to dnh hu&ng din chinh sdch co tuc cua cdc doanh nghiip niem yet trin S& Giao dich chung khodn Hd Noi (HNX) thong qua cdc phdn tich dinh lugng, qua do chi ra nhitng bdt cap vd mot so khiwin nghi giup cdc doanh nghiep lua chon dugc chinh sdch co tiec phii hgp. Kit qud nghiin cuu cho thdy, cd 3 nhdn to dgc thil dnh hu&ng din ti li chi trd co tiec bdng tiin mat cua cdc cong ty niim yit trin HNX Id ti sudt lgi nhudn von chii s& hUu (ROE), ddn bdy tdi chinh (LEV) vd lgi nhudn trin moi cd phiiu (EPS). Ngodi^ra, xem xet mo hinh bien gid cho thdy, dnh hu&ng ciia nhdm ngdnh nong, ldm, nghiep; nhdm ngdnh cong nghi chi bien, chi tgo; nhom ngdnh khai khodng cd tdc dong den ti li chi trd cd tire manh hem nhom ngdnhglch vu luu trie vd dn uong.
TS. DO TH! VAN TRANG - VU THI HIEN - ^ 6 THI VIET HA - H 6 THI TRUC UYEN - NGO THI KHANH VAN
' -^m'' -"mm _ ^ ^ - ^ -(
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D O A N H NGHIEP
Tir khda: Chinh sdch co tiec vi ti li chi trd co tiic.
1. Gidi thieu
iing vdi su phit frien ciia thi trudng chiing khoin
(TTCK), sd lugng cic cdng ty niem yet hien nay dang tang din qua cic nam. Nim 2015 li mic frdn 15 nim (2000- 2015) kl frr khi TTCK Viet Nam bat diu di vao boat ddng. 15 nim qua, TTCK Viet Nam da phit frien manh vdi so lugng cic cdng ty niem yet li 689, bao gom 307 doanh nghiep niem yet d Sd Giao dich chimg khoin Ho Chi Minh (HOSE) va 382 doanh nghiep niem yet tren Sd Giao dich chiing khoan Hi Ngi (HNX). Trii qua rihiing khd khan tir sau khung hoang kinh te the gidi nam 2008, cic cong ty niem yet tren HNX vi HOSE dang dan thich nghi vdi nen kinh te va hpi nhip. De phat frien vi ngay cang vuan xa, moi doanh nghiep cin cd nhiing chinh sich dieu hanh rieng, trong do cd chinh sich cd tire, giiip tao su'c hut vdi cac nhi diu tu trong nudc vi quoc te.
Chinh sich cd hie Ii quylt dinh phin phoi Igi nhuin cua doanh nghiep, mi d do doanh nghiep se diing trudc su lya chgn ciia viec sir dung lgi nhuin sau thul co dugc de tiep tuc diu tu hay chia CO tiic cho CO dong. Quyet dinh chinh sich cd tire li mpt trong ba quylt dinh quan trpng nhit trong cdng tic quin tri tii chinh doanh nghiep (ben canh cac quylt dinh diu tu va quyet dinh tii trg).
Chinh sich cd tiic cd nhiing tic dgng rat ldn den qua trinh hoat ddng, sy ton tai vi phat friin cua
doanh nghiep fren nhieu phuang dien. Xac dinh dugc cac nhin td inh hudng din chinh sach cd hie se giiip cho doanh nghiep xiy dyng cho minh mgt chinh sach cd tire hgp Iy.
Tren thi gidi da cd rit nhieu nghien ciiu li thuyet cung nhu thyc nghiem lien quan den chinh sich cd tiic ciia doanh nghiep.
Tuy nhien, ket qui ciia mdt sd nghien ciiu thyc nghiem khic biet so vdi nghien ciiu Ii thuyet ciing nhu khdng tuomg ddng frong nhiing dieu kien khic nhau. Li thuylt ciia Miller & Modigliani (1961) cho rang, chinh sach cd tlie khdng inh hudng den gii fri ciia doanh nghiep; trong khi dd, mgt so nghien ciiu thyc nghiem khic nhu: Partington (1985), Baskin (1989)... di tim thiy mdi lien he giua chinh sich cd tuc va sy bien dpng gii cd phieu.
Ket qui nghien ciiu ciia Brittain (1964), Naeem & Muthusamy (2010) ket luin tdn tai mdi quan he ty Ie nghich giiia bien dpng gii cd phieu va chinh sich co tiic.
Ngoii ra, da so cic nghien ciiu thyc nghiem tip trung phin tich nhiing nhin td die thii cua doanh nghiep, chua tinh din nhiing tic dpng tir cic nhin td vT md va cic Iy thuyet nghien ciru hiu nhu d cic nudc co thi trudng tii chinh d cic nudc phit friin nhu My, Canada, Anh, Dire, Phip vi Nhit Bin, thi trudng Chiu Au vi cac TTCK mdi ndi.
Tai Viet Nam, do nim frong nhdm nudc co TTCK cdn non fre, khic vdi cic TTCK phit friin, nhi diu tu se kho tilp can thdng tin mgt cich dl ding va minh bach, thi trudng rit biln dpng va
thudng cd quy md nhd (Kumar va Tsetsekos, 1999). Ngoii ra, cic chinh sach cua nha nudc, sy khac biet ve thue tren chenh lech gii, cau tnic cua thi trudng va nganh nghi kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep ciing la nhiing dilm khac biet ciia TTCK dang phat trien so vdi nhung thi trudng da phit trien.
Ddi vdi Viet Nam, thi trudng tai chinh dang bi mit cin ddi, frong dd thi trugng ngan hang dang chiem ti frpng rat cao khoing 80%, cdn TTCK vi bio hiem chi chiem khoang 20%'. Sy mit can ddi giua cac thi trudng vdn nay se Iam cho thi trudng tii chinh bi meo md do tin dung ngan hang vira cip vdn ngin, trung vi dai ban. Dieu nay khien cho chi phi vdn vay ngin hing cua doanh nghiep cho sin xuit, kinh doanh cao hom. Do do, chinh sich co tiic ddng vai frd nhu mpt tin hieu thu hiit cic nha diu tu, tir do giiip doanh nghiep tiep can nguon von trung vi dai ban vdi chi phi thap ban.
Ngoai ra, vdi nhiing nudc co nen kinh te dang phit trien, cic the che chinh sich ciia nha nudc ciing nhu cau tnic boat dpng ciia doanh nghiep frong giai doan nay ciing Iam cho chinh sach chi tra cd tiic frd nen bien dpng hem nhieu so vdi cic nudc phat trien, die biet li vdi Viet Nam. Vi viy, lya chpn dugc chinh sich chi tta cd titc phil hgp vdi cac doanh nghiep niem yet hien nay la mot bai toin phiic tap.
Tinh den thdi diem nay van chua cd nhieu nghien ciiu (die biet la
' http;//vneconomy.vn/tai-chinti/ttiong- doc-phai-nan-chinh-lai-thi-truong-tai- chinh-20150224105247280.htm
4 2 \9 CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAf . lUAWi: s MU
Q U A N TTRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP Hm
cac nghien cuu dinh lugng) lien quan den cic nhan td anh hudng den chinh sach chi tri cd tiic cua cic doanh nghiep niem yet tai Viet Nam. Vi vay, nghien curu niy se tap tnmg lam rd nhiing ngi dung dd. Nhung ket qua cua nghien ciiu se gdp phan vao qua trinh tim ra ciu fra ldi cho bai toin cd tiic cua cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam, giiip cho cic doanh nghiep cd the xay dyng cho minh mdt chinh sich cd tiic hgp Ii, gdp phin nang cao hieu qua boat ddng kinh doanh, nhit la frong giai doan phai ddi mat vdi tinh hinh kinh doanh khd khan.
2. Cff Sff ly thuyet va phuong phap nghien cirn
2.1. Cff Sff ly thuyit
Hgc thuyit chinh sdch chi trd co tuc cua Lintner
John Lintner (1956) da khio sit hing loat cic quan diem cd dien cua cac liha quan tri doanh nghiep ve cic chinh sich phin phdi cd tiic. Md hinh dom giin cua Lintner xac nhin ring cd tlie phu thudc mdt phan vao lgi nhuin hien tai cua doanh nghiep va mdt phin vao cd tiic ciia nam trudc. Den lugt minh cd tiic ciia nim trudc Iai phu thugc \ i o Igi nhuin cua nam do va cd tiic cua nam trudc dd. Diy la nhiing quan diem cd dien cua cic giim ddc doanh nghiep ve chfnh sich phin phdi cd tiic. Nhung nd vin cdn mang tinh thdi sy va cd gii tri cho cic doanh nghiep fren the gidi va cic doanh nghiep Viet Nam khi xem xet dua ra quyet dinh cd tiic ciia minh.
Md hinh cua Lintner chi ra rang, viec diu tien khi quyet dinh chinh
sach li phai xie dinh dugc ty le cd tiic muc tieu dai ban phu hgp nhit vdi nhiing die diem ciia doanh nghiep. Day la dieu kien tien quyet de cd mdt chinh sich cd tiic tdi uu cho doanh nghiep.
Sau dd, vio timg nam cu the doanh nghiep dua vao ty le chi fri muc tieu de thuc hien chi fra cd tuc tuomg ddi dn dinh. Chang han, cdng ty cin phii cd mpt chinh sich cd tiic an toan, nhit quan, ngay ci trong trucmg hgp lgi nhuan boat dgng giim. Mdt chinh sich cd tlie an toin khdng ddng nghTa vdi mgt chinh sich cd tiic thip. An toan d day la viec ting cd tlie phii dua fren nhiing thay ddi frong lgi nhuin dn dinh va keo dai. Ddng thdi frinh tdi da viec cat giim cd tiic, cho du cdng ty dang cd mdt ca hdi diu tu tuyet vdi. Nhung cd ddng quan tim den ddng thu nhip tuomg lai dn dinh va dang tin cay tir cd tiic se rit quan tim den su thay ddi chinh sich cd tiic dot ngdt ciia cdng ty, dac biet Ii kbi cd tiic bj cit giim vdi ly do la dimg lgi tihuin giii Iai de diu tu vao mpt dy an mdi tao gii tri gia tang cho cdng ty frong tuang lai. Trong trudng hgp nhu the, de khdng bd Id ca hdi diu tu niy, cdng ty nen chpn giai phip di vay hay phit hanh cd phieu mdi. Neu vi mdt Iy do nao dd cdng ty khdng the huy ddng du vdn tir ngudn tai frg ben ngoii mi huge pbii cat giim cd tlie, thi cdng ty cin phai cung cip thdng tin diy du va giai thich mpt cich ro rang cho cac nha diu tu biet ve chuang trinh diu tu sip tdi Cling nhu nhu ciu tii chinh cin thiet de tai frg cho dy in dd.
Hgc thuyit ciia Gordon
Myron Gordon, David Durrand va John Lmtner (1962) cho ring, mdt khi khdng tdn tai nhiing gia tri han chl thi chinh sach cd titc cua mpt doanh nghiep se trd nen quan frpng hom vi nd cd the tic ddng den gii trj doanh nghiep.
Dd Ii do:
- Khong thich rui ro: Mdt cich cu the, Gordon khang dinh rang cic cd ddng khdng thich nii ro cd the thich mpt cd tire nio do hem la hiia hen lai vdn frong tuomg Iai vi cd tiic la thu nhap thudng xuyen, chac chan, frong khi Iai vdn tuomg lai it chic chin hom. TTieo Gordon, cd tiic lim giim tinh bit fric ciia cic cd ddng, cho phep hp chiet khau Igi nhuin tuomg Iai cua doanh nghiep vdi mdt ty le thap hom, do do Iam tang gia fri cua doanh nghiep, vi ngugc lai.
- Cdc chi phi giao dich: Cic khoan chi phi mdi gidi vi chenh lech Id Ie (sd chiing khoin bin ra it, khdng du de tao thanh dom vi mua bin fren tbi trudng nen khd bin vi gia thip) lim cho viec bin cd phin bi tdn kem va khdng the thay the mdt cich hoin hio cho cic chi fra cd tiic thucmg xuyen.
- Thui: Viec bd gii dinb khdng CO thue ciing se cd tac ddng den cd ddng, vi Iai vdn khdng cd thue cung se cd tic dpng den cd ddng, do lai vdn khdng chiu thue cho den khi bin cd phin.
- Chi phi phdt hanh: Sy hien dien cua chi phi phit hanh khi bin cd phin mdi ciing cd khuynh hudng lam cho cic doanh nghiep ua thich giii Iai Igi nhuin hom.
- Cdc chi phi dgi diin: Viec huy ddng vdn cd phan tir ben ngoai (nhu bin cd phin thuomg) frong cac thi trucmg von lim cho cdng
IHANG 8.2016-SO 171 AP CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN
4 3
QUAN TRI N G A N H A N G S D D A N H N G H E P
ty phii chiu su giim sit ky ludng cua cac ca quan dieu phdi va cac nhi diu tir tuomg Iai, viec niy dugc coi nhu mdt chuc ning giira sit thinh qui cua ban dieu hanh. Nhd thi se lim giim chi phi dai dien giiia cic cd ddng (chu sd hiiu) va ban dieu hanh.
Hgc thuyit vi chi phi dgi dien Theo Jensen & Meckling (1976), chi phi dai dien xuat phit tir viec tich bach giiia quyen sd hiiu cong ty va quyen quin Iy cdng ty, phit sinh khi ban giim doc cdng ty (la nhiing ngudi quin ly) thuc hien nhiing boat dgng nham muc dich mang Iai Igi ich rieng cho hg thay vi nhiing hoat dgng co Igi cho cic CO ddng (Ii nhung ngudi sd hiiu cdng ty). Nhiing Igi ich tir quyet dinh nay cd the Ii tryc tilp hoic giin tiep. Vi the ty Ie sd hiiu cua nhiing ngudi tham gia quin Iy cong ty co inh hudng den chinh sich cd tire.
Ngoai ra, chi phi dai dien cdn cd the phit sinh bdi chinh nhiing ngudi sd hiiu cong ty. Nhiing cd ddng cua cac cdng ty cd qua nhieu tien mat thudng yeu ciu chi fri CO tire thay vi tii diu tu.
Ben canh chi phi dai dien dugc de cap bdi Jensen & Meckling (1976) thi Easterbrook (1984) da dua ra chi phi dai dien phit sinh tit chinh thai dp e sg riii ro cua ban giam ddc. Thii do e ngai vdi nii ro bit nguon tir viec ban giim ddc Io sg ket qua kinh doanh ciia cong ty kem se inh hudng den vi tri cdng viec, Igi ich cua hg, nen bp cd xu budng chpn nhiimg dy in an toan cOng dong nghTa vdi suit sinh Igi khong cao.
Hgc thuyit ciia M&M Trong nghien cim ciia Miller &
Modighani (1961), gii thiet ring nhi diu tu va ban giim ddc deu cd hilu bilt hoan hio va toan dien vl cdng ty. Tuy nbien, nhilu nha nghien ciiu cho ring luon cd khoing cich vl thdng tin (thdng tin bit can ximg) giiia cic nhi quin ly va cac nhi diu tu. Bdi nha quin Iy kilm soat boat dpng ciia cdng ty hang ngay vi nim bit nhilu thdng tin npi bp mi nhi diu tu ben ngoii khdng tilp can dugc. D I thu hep khoang cich niy, nha quin Iy sii dung cd tiic nhu Ii mgt cdng cu de truyen tii cic thong tin ngi bg cua cdng ty cho cic nhi diu tu (AI-Malka-wi, 2007).
Trong dieu kien bit cin xiimg thdng tin niy, cd tiic dugc xem la cdng cu truyen tin hieu cdn dugc thiy trong ket qui nghien ciiu cua Gordon (1963) va Lintner (1956). Theo nghien cim ciia hai tic gii, thong thudng nhi dau tu deu rit e ngai nii ro, khdng thich mao hiem, dieu do ly giii tai sao hg thich co tiic hien tai va sy ting trudng dn dinh hom la viec trdng chd vio viec ting gii cd phieu.
Ciing theo ket qui cua bai tic gii tren, co tire cung cip mot tin hieu ve sy phat trien ciia cdng ty cho nha diu tu. Theo lap luin niy, mpt cong bd cd hie se him chiia thdng tin dinh gia ve ban quan Ii, khi nang sinh Idi, thu nhip va ty Ie tang trudng tuomg Iai cua cdng ty. Co tiic ting him y nha quan tri lac quan ve kha ning sinh Idi trong tuang lai va ngugc Iai.
Ngoai ra, cic nhi diu tu cd thi sir dung thdng tin ham chu-a cac thong bio cd tire de dinh gia cd phieu ciia cdng ty. Theo H. Kent Baker va Gary E Powell (1999)
khio sit quan dilm cac nha qua Ii cila 189 cdng ty cd phin d My, hp ddng tinh rit cao vl tin hieu chinh sich chia cd tiic. Hay theo Lazo (1999), nghien cuu 110 giam ddc tir cic cdng ty S&P 500 vi thiy ring 90% cac cong ty sii dung cd hie nhu la mgt cdng cu phit tin hieu vl vien canh tuong lai ciia cdng ty.
2.2. Phuong phdp nghien ciru Md hinh kinh tl lugng diu tien dugc nhdm sti dung vdi dil lieu bing li md hiiih hdi qui Pooled Ordinary Least Square (Pooled OLS). Md hinh nay giiip tim ra anh hudng cua cic bien dgc lap vdi biln phu thupc trong do tat ci cic he sd ciia cac bien dpc lap deu khdng ddi theo thdi gian va timg quan sit. Tuy nhien, de mo hinh cd y nghTa tbi cd rat nhieu gia dinh dugc dua ra: Phuang sai sai sd khdng ddi, khdng co tir tuomg quan, khdng cd da cpng tuyen, khdng bd sdt bien quan trpng va phii tuin theo phin phoi chuin. Do viy, rit it md hinh dua ra cd the thoi man cac dieu kien chit che nay. Ddi vdi md hinh Pooled OLS, se tien hanh cu the theo cac budc sau:
Buac T. Thuc hien hdi quy vdi tat ca 10 biln vi tinh BIC (Bayesian information criterion) cua mo hinh. Xac dinh bien cd t-statistic nhd nhit.
Bu&c 2: Thuc hien lai hdi quy v6i md hinh da bd bien cd t-statistic nhd nhit d budc I. Tir ket qui hoi quy mdi, tinb BIC vi xac dinh biln cd t-statistic nhd nhat tiep theo.
Buac 3: Thyc hien Iai hdi quy vdi md hinh da bd bdt bien cd 4 4 AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAI*i (fi 171. TUUir: 0 -mil
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G Si D D A N H NGHIEP 4di
t-statistic nhd nhit d budc 2. Tir ket qui hdi quy mdi, tinh BIC va xac dinh bien cd t-statistic nhd nhit tiep theo.
Budc 4: Lam tuang ty cho den khi chi cdn mpt bien duy nhit.
Hdi quy md hinh vdi bien niy vi xie dinh gia tri cua BIC.
Buac 5: Lya chpn md hinh cd BIC nhd nhat. Cic nhin td cd y nghTa thdng ke frong mo hinh niy Ii cic nhin td quyet dinh ti Ie chi fri cd tiic cin tim.
Gia dinh cho rang he sd ciia bien dpc lap khdng thay ddi theo thdi gian vi khdng cd sy khic biet cua timg quan sit rieng le la khd xiy ra. Hom niia, mdt nhugc diem rat Idn cua md binh Pooled OLS la he sd Durbin-Waston thudng khi nho (be horn 1) nen thudng giy ra hien tugng tu tuomg quan. Chinh vi viy, mpt md hmh khic cd the dugc sii dung thay the Pooled
OLS la mo hinh inh hudng cd dinh (Fixed Effect Model). Theo md hinh nay, cd sy khac nhau giua inh hudng cua cic quan sit rieng Ie va cd sy khac nhau theo thdi gian; tiic li mdi quan sit rieng Ie deu cd nhiing die diem rieng le cd the anh hudng den cac bien giii thich. FEM phan tich mdi tuomg quan niy giiia phin du ciia mdi quan sit vdi cic bien giii thich qua do kiem soit vi tich aiih hudng cua cic die diem rieng biet (khdng thay ddi theo thdi gian) ra khdi cic bien giii thich de cd the udc lugng dugc nhiing inh hudng thyc te ciia bien giii thich len bien phu thugc.
De lua chpn giiia mdt frong hai mo hinh Pooled OLS hay FEM thi nhdm se can cit vao ti sd R2 va gii tri Durbin-Wastion. Ben canh do, nhdm se cin cir vao kiem dinh F de kiem tra do pbii
hgp cua md hinh Pooled OLS, nlu gii tri F cao thi md hinh Pooled se khdng dugc lua chgn ma thay vio do se la md minh FEM.
Tuy nhien, khi sii dung md hinh FEM thi cin cd sy tic ddng ciia timg quan sat tdi bien giii thich theo thdi gian. Neu sy bien dpng ciia cac quan sit rieng Ie khdng tucmg quan den bien giii thich thi nhdm se sir dung md hinh anh hudng ngiu nhien (Random Effect Model). De quyet dinh lya chgn md hinh FEM hay REM thi nhdm se tien hinh kiem dinh Hausman dugc dua ra bdi Hausman nim 1978. Theo hgc thuyet dng dua ra vdi gii dinh HO: khdng cd su khic nhau giiia hai mo hinh FEM va REM. Neu gii dinh niy bi vi pham thi md binh REM se khdng dugc chgn ma thay vio do, md hinh FEM se Bang 1. Cac bien dua vao trong mo hinh
i ^ ^ ^ i i l n d§c lap . (1) Ty suSt ddng tidn tir do (FCF)
(2) Tai san dam bao (Asset)
(3) Qui md doanh nghiep (Size)
(4) T6C dp tang tnrdng doanh thu (Growth) (5) Ddn bay tai chinh (LEV)
6) TT suit sinh Idi tren tong tai san (ROA) (7) Ty suat sinh ldi vdn chu sd h&u (ROE) (8) Lgi nhuan tren moi CO philu (EPS) (9) Kha nang thanh toan ngin han (CR)
(10) Ti le CO tiPC bang tidn mat tren EPS (devidend)
Do l u v n g
Ddng tien va tLPang dirang tidn cudi ky (FCF)/T6ng tai san Tdng tai san cd dinh/tdng tai san
Tdng tai san
Doanh thu nam nay/doanh thu nam trydc
Ng phai traA/dn chu sd hu'u Lgi nhuan tru'dc thud/Tong tai san binh quan
Lgi nhuan sau thudA/on chu sd hu'u binh quan
Lgi nhuan sau thud/Tong s6 CO phieu dang liru hanh Tai san ngin han/Ng ngSn ban
Co tire nhan dugc bang tidn mat/EPS
Tac gia da nghien cihi
Meckilig (1976), Amidu va Abor (2006), Mehta (2012)
Chen va Dhiensiri nam 2009
Alii et al. (1995), Chay va Suh (2009), Ahmed va Javid(2009), IV1ehta(2012)
Meckiling, 1976; Rozeff, 1982; Alii e t a l . , 1985;Amidu va Abor, 2006; He et al, 2009; Mailik et al., 2013 Rezeff, 1982; Myers, 1984; Jensen, 1986; He et al. , 2009; Mehta, 2012;
Lintner (1956), (Myers, 1984), Ahmed va Javid (2009)
Amidu & Abor (2006) va Mehta (2012)
Chay va Sub (2009)
,:IHANG 8.2016-SO 171 \? CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HA 4 5
Bang 2. Thdng ke mo ta cho cac biln trong rao hinh Bien cua
mo hinh
S6 quan , sat
Gia trj trung binh
Dp lech chuan
Gia trj Ion nhat
Gia trj nho nhat Bidn phu thudc
dpr 780 Bidn dpc lap
fcf asset
size growth
lev roa roe eps cr dividend
780 780 780 780 780 780 780 780 780 780
0,1197821
0,33997 1,52264 11,94239
5,83957 1,67393 0,42534 0,14089 3016,911
2,09456 4,80638
0,1181417
3,84770 16,57641
0,60205 91,09281
2,91972 4,13680 0,48574 8179,730
2,39064 90,68790
0 1 0,7
-0,13386 0,00032 8,78619 0,16516 -26,47752
-0,51011 -1,86697 -10332,380
0,01218 -256,85340
97,76767 294,97710
13,87951 2089,18400
35,45230 86,65801 11,86864 204979,000
40,43715 2399,06800 Nguon: Bdng so lieu titphdn mem Stata/SE 12,0
phil hgp hom.
2.3. Mo hinh vd dU lieu nghiin ciru
2.3.1. Mo hinh nghien cuu Co rit nhieu cac hgc thuyet nghien ciiu ve chinh sach chi tra cd tire vi cic nhin to inh hudng den chinh sich cd tiic cua doanh nghiep. Ngoii biln phu thudc (Ty Ie chi tra cd tire), dya fren cic nghien curu trudc, tic gii chpn 10 bien dpc lip dua vao md hinh (Bing I).
2.3.2. Mo td die lieu sie dung Bii nghien cuu tip trung tim hilu ve ti le chi fri co tire bing tiln mat cua 156 cdng ty niem yIt tren HNX trong giai doan tii 2010 din 2014. Viec tinh toan phiic tap vi chua thdng nhit Iam su so sanh ve ti Ie chi fri c6 tire ciia cic cdng ty cimg niem yIt fren HNX li rit kho, vi vay bii nghien ciiu tip trung vio cic cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren HNX trong giai doan 2010-2014, co ky kl toin ket thuc ngay 31/12.
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP
Bang 2 cho ket qua thong ke md ta gia tri trung binh, d6 lech chuin, gia tri nhd nhit vi gii fri ldn nhit cua cac bien frong md hinh nghien ciiu.
Phin tich tdng quan Bang 2 cho thay cac nhin td inh hudng tdi ti le chi fri cd hie cua cic cdng ty niem yet fren HNX. Bing 2 chi ra rang, ti le chi fri cd tiic tnmg binh ciia 156 cdng ty trong 5 nam tii 2010 din 2014 la 11,978% vdi dp lech chuin la 11,814%. Nhu viy, frung binh cac cdng ty tren HNX sin sang danh 11,978% lgi nhuan ciia minh de chi tri co tiic cho cd ddng. Tuy nhien, bien dp bien dpng cua ti Ie chi tri co tiic la kha
\an vdi gia fri nhd nhit la 0% va gii tri Icin nhit li 70%.
—> Kiim tra hiin tuang da cgng tuyin (MulticoUinearity) Ma trin tuong quan Bang 2 cho thiy tuomg quan giiia hau het cac bien Ii tuomg ddi thip, tuy nhien he sd tuomg quan giiia FCF va ASSET; ASSET vi ROA; ROE vi EPS d miic cao (lin lugt la 0,8708; 0,7401; 0,9098) nen rit de xiy ra hien tugng da cgng tuyen, nhung hien tugng niy khdng qua inh hudng din mo hinh ndi chung. Vi viy, phin Idn cac bien trong md hinh khong cd hien tugng da cgng hiyin vdi nhau vi day se la mgt diu hieu tich cyc trong viec kiem dinh va lya chgn md hinh kinh tl lugng phil hgp.
Ngoii ra, Bing 3 cho thiy he so tuomg quan giiia biln dgc lip va bien phu thupc la thip. Phin tilp theo chiing tdi se kiem tra su da Ngudn dii lieu tir cac Bio cio tai
chinh hgp nhat hing nim da dugc kiem toan va Bio cio thudng nien cua cic cdng ty dugc cdng bd tren Cafef.vn, Vietstock.vn, Cophieu68.com, vi mgt sd trang web chiing khoin khac.
Chiing toi loai ra (I) nhirng cong ty bio hilm, tai chinh, ngin hang bdi vi viec xir ly kl toan vl Igi nhuan va doanh thu ciia nhiing cong ty trong ITnh vyc nay cd nhiing die thii rieng; va do die thil cua minh cic td chtic tii chinh nhu ngin bang vi bio hilm thudng xuyen duy fri mgt ti Ie cd tlie cd dinh va sy cit giim bay ting len ciia ti le cd tiic ciia nhdm nganh nay cung khdng anh hudng hay biln dgng manh tdi toan thi thi trudng; (2) nhiing quan sit khdng cd diy du thdng tin lien quan din cic chi tieu nghien ciiu.
Ngoii ra, dl xir Iy dii lieu, nghien Cliu sir dung phin mim xu ly du lieu Stata/SE 12.
3. Ket qua nghien cuu 3.1. Phan tich tdng quan sd liiu
46
*P CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAh ? f t ' 1 7 1 - I U A M C S 7(116Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP
^ ^ ^dpr fcf asset size growth lev roa roe eps cr dividend
dpr 1 -0.0105 -0.0022 0.0297 -0.0501 -0.1346 0.0409 0.1553 0.2441 0.1263 -0.0451
Bang 3. Bang fcf
1 0.8708 -0.2862 -0.0032 0.0758 0.4844 -0.0086 -0.0097 -0.0209 -0.0036
a s s e t
1 -0.3334 -0.0044 0.0563 0.7401 -0.0085 -0.0086 -0.0291 -0.0038
n a tran tuomg quan giira Size
1 0.0466 0.1689 -0.3403 0.0313 0.0582 -0.1752 -0.1575
growth
1 -0.004 -0.0044 -0.0025 -0.0089 -0.0038 -0.0017
Lev
1 0.0066 -0.112 -0.0399 -0.162 -0.0113
cac bien Roa
1 0.0029 0.0066 -0.0202 -0.0037
trong mo hinh roe 1 e p s
1 1
i
1 0.9098 0.0134 -0.005
1 0.0295 -0.0179
cr
1 0.0184
dividend
1 Nguon: Bdng so lieu tie phdn mem Stata/SE 12.0
Bang 4. Mo hinh hoi qui Pooled OLS trong STATA
dpr Fcf Asset Size Growth Lev Roa Roe Eps Cr Dividend cons
Coef.
.0016062 -.0006402 .0136329 -.0000634 -.0062197 .0030153 -.01055489 9.01 e-06 .0050367 -.0000373 -.0557836
P>/t/
0.506 0.378 0.070 0.147 0.000 0.070 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.403 0.536 Nguon: Bdng so lieu tie phdn mem Stata/SE 12.0
cdng tuyen cua md hinh cu the hom.
3.2. Mo hinh hoi qui 3.2.1. Md hinh hdi qui Pooled
OLS
Thuc hien hdi qui md hinh theo md hinh Pooled OLS frong Stata ta thu dugc ket qua sau:
Md hinh thyc hien fren 780 quan sat dua fren sd lieu ciia
156 cdng ty frong 5 nam. Tir chi sd R-squared =0,1282, chiing td 10 bien dgc lip: fcf, asset, size, growth, lew roa, roe, eps, cr, dividend giai thich dugc 13,69%
sy bien dgng cua ti Ie chi t r i cd tiic bang tien mat.
Thyc hien kiem dinh Fisher \ e sy phil hgp ciia ham hdi quy cd
P-value x i p xi 0%, nhd hom 5%, nhu v i y g i i thuyet H,: Md hinh khdng phil hgp hi b i c bd, tiic ham hdi quy Pooled OLS fren la phu hgp, c i c bien ddc lap giai thich dugc sy bien ddng cua bien phu thudc (dpr).
Nghien cuu tiep tuc thyc hien hdi quy vdi tit c i 10 bien, tir dd xac djnh BIC cua md hinh. Tir ket q u i hdi quy. xac dinh bien cd t-statistic nhd nhit.
Nhu viy md hinh hdi qui Pooled OLS cd 10 bien la md binh dugc chgn de nghien curu. De danh gia su phil hgp cua timg he so beta ttong md hinh, tic gii so sanh g i i tri P-value vdi ti le 5° o. \'di gia dinh H^j la he sd p. bang 0 (vdi i Ii c i c gia tri tir 0 den 10, tucmg ling vcri cic he sd hdi qui ctia c i c
Bang 5. Bang gia tri BIC cua cac mo hinh dugc hdi qui
Mo hinh hoj guy Gia tri AIC Gia tri BIC B i l n CO T-statistic nho nhit 10 bien ban dau -1204.46 -1153.207
9 bien (da loai FCF) -1206.01 -1159.418 8 bien (da bd ASSET) -1207.632 -1165.698 7 bien (da bd bien DIVIDEND) -1208.934 -1171.659 6 bien (da bd bien GROWTH) -1208.79 -1176.175 5 bien (da bd bien ROA) -1207.399 -1179.443 4 bien (da bd bien SIZE) -1207.374 -1184.077 3 bien (da bd bien CR) -1202.464 -1183.826
FCF ASSET DIVIDEND GROWTH
ROA SIZE CR
3 bien cdn lai la cd gia trjT-statistic g i n bing nhau
IHiNG 8.2016-50171 AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAr
47
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP
cic bien fcf, asset, size, growth, lev, roa, roe, eps, cr, dividend).
Vdi gii fri P-value Idn hom 5%
thi khdng the bic bd dugc gii thilt Ho nen cic bien fcf, asset, growth, dividend dugc cho l i khdng giii thich dugc sy thay doi cua ti Ie chi tri cd tire.
Tiln hanh mgt sd kiem dinh ve cic gii thuyet cua mo hinh Pooled, se dinh gia dugc tinh thich hgp cua mo binh nhu sau:
Bang 6. Kiem dinh da cgng tuyen
Variable Asset Roe Eps Fcf Roa Size Lev Cr Dividend Growth Mean VIF
VIF 9.16 6.05 6.00 5.45 2.98 1.29 1.11 1.07 1.03 1.00 3.51
1A/IF 0.109203 0.165391 0.166614 0.183465 0.335836 0.775869 0.904760 0.938511 0.969548 0.997025
Nguon: so lieu tic phdn mem Stata/SE 12.0 Thie nhdt, kiem dinb da cdng tuyen
Gii tri Vif ciia cac bien fcf asset, size, growth, lev, roa, roe, eps, cr, dividend deu nhd hom 10, kit luin: Mo hinh khdng cd da cpng tuyen hoin hao.
Thie hai, kiem djnh phuang sai sai sd khdng doi cho gii trj P-value xip xi 0% (nho hon 5%), bic bo giai thuylt H^: Mo hinh co phuang sai sai s l khong dii. Mo hinh bj mic loi phuang sai sai s l thay ddi.
Nhu viy, mpt trong cic gii djnh ciia mo hinh bj vi pham, ta cd thi sira ldi phuorng sai sai s l tbay dii bing mo hinh Robus
Bang 7. Mo hinh Robus
dpr Fcf Asset Size Growth Lev Roa Roe Eps Cr Dividend cons
Coef.
.0016062 -.0006402 .0136329 -.0000634 -.0062197 .0030153 -.1055489 9.01 e-06 .0050367 -.0000373 -.0557836
Robust Std. Err.
.0014919 .000505 .0081371 3.93e-06 .0030242 .001261 .0409215 2.62e-06 .0029621 .0000113 .0953391
P 0.282 0.205 0.094 0.000 0.040 0.017 0.010 0.001 0.089 0.001 0.559 Nguon : Bdng so lieu tie phdn mem Stata/
SE 12.0
Tuy nhien khi tien hinh kiem djnh phuang sai sai sd khdng ddi thi md hinh vin bj vi pham gii djnh niy. Song d i y la md hinh Pooled OLS tdt nhit cd the nghien ciru.
3.2.2. Mo hinh nhdn to dnh hucmg CO dinh (FEM) Chay mo hinh FEM trong STATA cho thay, kiem djnh Fisher ve su phii hgp ciia him hdi quy cd P-value = 7,9%, Idn han 5%, nhu viy khdng the bic bd gii thuylt H^: Md hinh khdng phil hgp, titc cic biln dgc lap trong mo hinh FEM khdng the giai thich dugc sy biln dpng ciia biln phu thupc (dpr).
3.2.3. Md hinh nhdn td dnh huong ngdn nhiin (REM)
Chay md hinh REM trong STATA thu dugc kit qui nhu Bing 8.
Bing 8 cho thay, gii trj P-vaIue = 0,01%, nhd
han r i t nhilu ti Ie 5%.
Nhu vay cd the b i c bd gia thuylt md hinh khdng phu hgp cila kiem djnh. Cac biln dugc dua ra trong mo hinh dugc cho la cd the giii thich dugc sy thay dii cua bien phu thugc, hic c i c nhin td fcf, asset, size, growth, lev, roa, roe, eps, cr, dividend dugc nghien Cliu trong md hinh giii thich dugc thay doi cua ti le chi tra cd tiic (dpr). Dl tim hieu rd hom ve timg nhin td ta dya v i o gia trj P-value cua timg he sd hdi qui P. Trong md hinh REM dang nghien cim, chi cd he sd P ciia ba n h i n td lev, roe, eps co gia trj P-value nhd ban 5% (P^= 0,6%, P , = 0,5%, P8.0%) nen cd thi giai thich su thay ddi cua ti Ie chi tra cd tiic dua vao sy thay ddi cua ddn b i y tai chinh, ti suit sinh loi vdn chu sd hiru, Igi nhuin sau thue tren mdi cd phieu.
Bang 8.
dpr Fcf Asset Size Growth Lev Roa Roe Eps Cr Dividend cons Sigma_u Sigma_e rho
Ket qua chay mo hinh REM Coef.
-.0019892 .0004661 .0067751 -.0000125 -.0039826 .0005341 -.0448654 4.00e-06 .001803 -1.29e-06 .0358201 .0770528 .07239747 .53111953
Std. Err.
.0017326 .0005472 .0099415 .0000325 .0014565 .0013091 .0159095 9.55e-07 .0014677 .0000347 .119241
P> 0.251 0.394 0.496 0.702 0.006 0.683 0.005 0.000 0.219 0.970 0.764
Nguon : Bang so lieu tie phdn mem Stata/SE 12
4 8 AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN (rt 171 - TuAur. s ml,
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP liiji
3.3. Lua chpn mo hinh nghien ciru
Nghien ciiu de cap tdi ba md hmh: Poole.' OLS, FEM va REM, frong dd md hinh FEM la khdng phil hgp de giai thich sy thay ddi ctia ti Ie chi fri cd tiic dya vio cic du lieu dang nghien cuu.
Vi viy, khi lya chgn giiia mgt frong hai md hinh Pooled OLS va REM, tic gia tien hanh kiem dinh Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier. Gia thiet Ho dugc dua ra li md hinh Pooled OLS phil hgp vi gii thiet thay the HI md hinh REM la thich hgp. Ket qua kiem dinh cho thiy: Gii trj P-value = 0%, nhd hom 5%i chiing td gii thiet Ho hi bic bd, vi viy md hinh REM dugc cho li thich hgp de giii thich sy thay ddi ctia ti Ie chi fri cd tiic tit sd lieu thu thap dugc hom Ii md hinh Pooled OLS. Theo ket luin thu dugc tii mo hinh REM d fren, frong 10 nhan td dugc lya chgn dua vao md hinh thi chi cd ba nhin td li ddn biy tii chinh (LEV), ti suit sinh ldi vdn chit sd hiiu (ROE) va Igi nhuan fren mdi cd phieu (EPS) tic ddng den ti le chi fri cd tiic bang tien mat cua cic doanh nghiep niem yet fren HNX.
Cu the, tit ket qui cua md hinh cho thiy sy bien ddng cua ti Ie chi fri cd tiic cd the dugc giii thich qua bien EPS, tuy nhien he sd hdi qui p^ Ii rit nhd, xap xi bang 0 nen ta cd the coi nhin td nay khdng inh hudng den bien DPR dang hdi qui. Nhu vay, xet theo kha ning sinh lcri cua doanh nghiep, ket qui ciia md hinh hdi qui chi ra rang khi ti suit sinh Idi vdn chti sd hiiu tang 1% thi ti le chi fri cd tlie bang tien mat giim
0,045%!. Theo hgc thuyet Gordon (1963) va Lmftier (1956), doanh nghiep cd kha nang sinh ldi cao va dn djnh se lim tang ddng tien cua doanh nghiep vi vi viy cd the chi fra cd tire cao hom. Ket qua tir md hinh giii thich thii ty ngudn vdn uu tien, diu tien doanh nghiep se tm tien ngudn tai chinh ndi bd \a neu nhu cau vdn tir ben ngoai Ii cin thiet thi doanh nghiep mdi tiep tuc vay ng \a cuoi cimg Ii phit hanh cd phieu. Vdn diu tu se dugc liy tir lgi nhuin cua doanh nghiep trudc tien, tlie Ii doanh nghiep cing cd Igi nhuan cao thi fri cd tiic cang thip.
Md hinh ciing chi ra rang khi ddn biy tii chinh (LEV) tang 1% thi ti le chi tra cd tiic bang tien mat giim 0,004%. Ket luin nay la phil hgp vdi gii dinh dugc dua ra tii hgc thuyet M&M- Modigliani
& Miller, song he sd hdi qui cua bien LEV ciing rit nhd, cho thay inh hudng ciia chi tieu ddn biy tai chinh Ii khdng rd rang.
Ben canh dd, do die thu boat ddng cua mdi nganh Ii khic nhau nen chinh sich ve ti le chi tri cd tlie ctia cic cdng ty thupc cic nhdm nganh khic nhau cung se cd sy khic biet. De lim rd sy inh hucmg ctia cic nhdm nganh ttii ti le chi tti cd tiic fren HNX, ta se chay md hinh Pooled OLS vdi 10 bien ddc lip \ a cac bien gii. Cu the Dnln, Ddien, Dxd, Dvtai, Dbds, Dkhcn, Debet, Dkk, Dbb li cic bien gii cua cic nhdm nginh ndng nghiep, Iam nghiep vi thity sin (DnLn); sin xuit va phin phdi dien, khi ddt, nudc ndng, hai nudc \ a dilu hda khdng khi (Dxd); xay dung
(Dxd); van tii kho bai (Dvtai);
kinh doanh bat dgng san (Dbds);
hoat ddng chuyen mdn, khoa hgc va cdng nghe (Dkhcn); cdng nghiep che bien, che tao (Debet);
khai khoang (Dkk); nhdm nganh bin budn vi ban le (Dbb) Nhdm nganh dugc liy lim "gdc" khdng nam frong md hinh li nhdm nganh djch vu luu trii \ i an udng.
Cac nhdm nganh dugc phan chia dya theo danh sach phin nganh.
Ket qui cua md huih hdi qui cho thiy, ttong 9 nhdm nganh dugc dua \ i o md hinh de nghien Cliu thi cd 3 nhdm nginh ndng nghiep, lim nghiep vi thiiy sin;
khai khoing; cdng nghiep che bien, che tao cd sy inh hucmg tcii ti Ie chi tra cd tiic khac vcii nhdm nganh djch MI luu trir va in udng.
Cu the, ca 3 nhdm nganh nay deu cd tic dpng tai ti le clii fri cd tiic Itin ban nhdm nganh djch w luu trii \a in udng (be sd p. ctia Dnln, Debet \ a Dkk deu Idn ban 0).
Ngoai ra, dya vio gii trj P-value cua kiem djnh he sd P^ nhd ban 5%, cd the ket luin frong dieu kien cac yeu td khic khdng ddi thi nhdm nganh djch vu luu trii vi in udng cd tic dpng tdi ti le chi tra cd tiic bang tien mat ciia cac cdng t\ niem yet fren HNX.
4. Khuyen ngh| va Ket luan Nghien cuu tip trung xie dinh cic nhan td inh hudng tdi chinh sach chia cd tiic cua cic doanh nghiep Viet Nam dugc niem
\ et fren FINX vdi 156 cdng ty frong giai doan 2010-2014. Nhin chung, t\ Ie chi tti cd tire trung binh ciia cac cdng t\- li 11,978°, o nghia la trung binh cic cdng ty fren sin HNX se dinh 11,978%
IHANG 8.2016-SO 171 AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN
49
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G & D D A N H NGHIEP
Bang 9. Ket qua chay mo hinh CO bien gia
dpr Fcf Asset Size Growth Lev Roa Roe Eps Cr Dividend Dnln Ddien Dxd Dvtai Dbds Dkhcn Debet dkk dbb _cons
Coef.
.0011207 -.0005013 .0196003 -.0000543 -.0050774 .0029195 -.0847926 7.44e-06 .0055135 -.0000105 .1907901 .0524994 .0580939 .0702932 .0459429 .0630249 .0952395 .2527402 .0864043 -.2149195
P>
0.619 0.460 0.006 0.184 0.000 0.060 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.802 0.000 0.296 0.231 0.147 0.337 0.268 0.043 0.000 0.069 0.021 Ngudn: Bdng so lieu tie phdn mem
Stata/SE 12.0
lgi nhuan ciia minh de cbi ti co tlie cho cic co ddng.
Theo ket qua thu dugc tir mo hinh REM, ttong 10 nhin to dugc chpn dua vao mo binh thi chi cd ba nhan td Ii don bay tai chinh (LEV), ti suit sinb ldi vdn chii sd hiiu (ROE) va Igi nhuin tren moi cd phieu (EPS) tic dpng den ti Ie chi tri co tire bing tien mat cua cic doanh nghiep niem yet tren HNX, frong do EPS co he sd hdi quy qui nho nen xem nhu khdng anh hudng. Cdn 2 nhin td
ddn biy tai chinh va ty suit sinh Idi vdn chu sd hiiu cd tic ddng ty Ie nghjch tdi chinh sich chi tra cd tiic bing tiln mat. Do die thil boat ddng ciia cac cdng ty d nhiing nginh ngbl khac nhau nen chinh sich chia cd tiic ciing se khic nhau. Qua kit qui hdi quy, trong 9 nhdm nganh dugc dua vao md hinh nghien ciiu thi cd 3 nhdm nginh ndng nghiep, Iam nghiep vi thuy sin; khai khoang;
cdng nghiep che bien, che tao cd sy inh hudng tdi ti Ie chi tra cd tlie khic vdi nhdm nganh dich vu luu trii va an udng. Ci 3 nhdm nganh tten cd ty le chi tri cd tiic ldn ban so vdi nhdm nganh dich vu luu trii va in udng.
Khi thilt lip mpt chinh sich cd tlie thi khdng the cd mdt chinh sich nio phu hgp cho mgi doanh nghiep. Cic doanh nghiep tren thj trudng chiing khoin d Viet Nam phin \an la cac doanh nghiep co quy md nhd, tdc dp ting trudng cao nen chinh sich cd tiic Igi nhuan giii lai thu dpng dugc u-u tien, nhumg vin giii dugc mirc dn djnh, bing cich ket hgp Iinh boat giiia cic chinh sich co tiic nay vdi chinb sich cd tire tiln mat dn djnh va chinh sich cd tii-c djnh ky thip cgng vdi cd tire ting them.
Ngoii ra, cic doanh nghiep tren thj trucmg chiing khoin Viet Nam ciing cd the thuc hien hai cich sau day. Diu tien, doanh nghiep cd the giu Iai Igi nhuin khi cao
trong nhung nam cd nhu cau von cao. NIU cdng ty tilp tuc tang trudng, cic giam ddc cd the tiep tuc thyc hien chiln lugc nay ma khdng nhit thilt phai giam c6 tiic. Thii hai, doanh nghiep co thi vay vdn cho nhu ciu ma minh cin va do do tang ty Ie ng tren von cd phin mdt cich tam thai dl ttanh trudng hgp giim c6 hic.
NIU doanh nghiep cd nhieu ca hpi diu tu tdt frong sudt mpt nam nao dd thi chinh sich vay ng se thich hgp horn so vdi cit giim co tlie. Sau dd, doanh nghiep co thi giii Iai lgi nhuin hay ban cd phin mdi dl diy ty sd ng fren vdn co phin ve vdi miic thich hgp.
Tdm lai, trong bii vilt, nhdm nghien curu da kiem chiing lai dugc nhiing khing djnh dugc cdng bd bang nhiing so lieu thyc te cua cac doanh nghiep d Viet Nam trong giai doan nam 2010- 2014. Nghien ciiru da Iam rd dugc nhiing vin de ma chua dugc cac nhi nghien cuu frong nudc de cap den:
Ve mat ly ludn, nghien ciiru he thdng hda cic nghien ciiu ve cac nhan td inh hudng den chinh sich chi tra cd tiic cua cac doanh nghiep dang niem yet tren san chimg khoin Viet Nam, cung cap cic bing chimg thuc nghiem tren the gidi. Ngoai ra, cac ket qui ciia nghien ciiu la ca sd phit trien cho nhiing hudng nghien ciiu tiep
xem tiip trang 58 TAI LIEU THAM K H A O
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5 0 \P CHi KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAN (fil71-IuANCft7
Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G SL D D A N H NGHIEP Mi
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23. Trdn Thi Hdi Ly (2012). Tgp chi phdt trien vd hoi nhap p. 13- 16, "Quan diem ciia cdc nhd qudn ly doanh nghiep Viet Nam ve chinh sdch co tiec v&i gid tri doanh nghiep ".
SUMMARY
Factors affecting di\idend payment policy of Usted companies in Vietnam stock market
Dividend policy decisions is one of the three most important decisions in the financial govemance firm category (besides the investment decisions and financing decisions). Dividend policy has a huge impact on the operation, survival and development of the business in many ways. Identify' factors affecting the dividend policy will help enterprises build yourself an appropriate dividend policy. This study focuses on analyzing the factors affecting the dividend policy of the companies listed on Vietnam stock market by a combination of research both quantitative and qualilative. At the same time, Ihe paper launched the current gaps and some recommendations as well as a number of reference solution can help businesses choose the appropriate dividend policy. The paper shows that there are three specific factors that affect the rate of dividend payment in cash of the companies listed on the HNX is the rate of retum of equity (ROE), financial leverage (LEV) and eamings per share (EPS), in which the influence of EPS was negligible. Also when considering the impact of each sector to the rate of dividend payments, the model also shows that in terms of other factors constant, the service sector and food storage have an impact on rates pay dividends. Along with that, when considering the dummy variable model, it can be seen that the effect of in agriculture, forestiy and industry: processing industry groups, manufiicturing; mining sector has an impact on the rate of dividend payment stronger service sector and food storage.
Key Words: Dividend policy and a dividend payout ratio.
THONG TIN TAG GIA Do Thi \ ' a n Trang, Tien sT
Dan vi cong lac: Khoa Tai chinh. Hoc vien Ngan hang Linh vuc nghien dm chinh: Tai chinh- Xgan hang
Tgp chi tieu hieu da co bdi viet ddng tdi: Intemational Research Joumal of Apphed Finance, Intemational Joumal of Bonds and Derivatives, Tap chi Tai chinh. Tap chi Khoa hoc va Dao tao Ngan hang
Email: trangdti'ghNTnh.edu.vn
\u Thi Hien- H8 Thj Viet Ha- H6 Thi Triic Uyen- Ngo Thi Khanh M n Sinh Vien K16, Hoc vien Ngan hang
IHANG 8.2016-SO 171 AP CHI KHOA HOC & DAO Ti^O NGAN HA^
51
HUP Q U A N TRI N G A N H A N G S D D A N H NGHIEP
dip theo trang 57
chinh phil hgp ttong tuang lai.
4. Ket luan
Tren day la ndi dung nghien ciiu ve md hinh Hd frg tin dung frong quy trinh tin dung tai mgt sd NHTM Viet Nam hien nay. Bai nghien curu da chi ra thyc frang ciing nhu nhumg mat cdn ban che ciia md hinh niy. Qua do de xuat giai phap nham gdp phin ning cao hieu qui boat dgng cua md hinh Ho frg tm dung ndi rieng, vi ttong quy trinh tin dimg tai cic NHTM Viet Nam noi chung.
Do dieu kien chua cho phep, bai viet mdi chi dimg Iai d miic do quan sat thyc te ciing nhu trii nghiem so bg cua tic gii mi chua cd nhiing khio sit chuyen siu vi cy the tai cic NHTM khic nhau.
Trong thdi gian sip tdi, tic gii se cd nhiing cudc dieu fra, phdng vin Cling nhu khio sat cu the ddi vdi timg NHTM tai Viet Nam dl cd the dinh gia siu ban niia vl lmh vyc nghien ctiu nay. •
tiip theo trang 50
theo, siu bom vi chinh xie hom, nhim Iam rd nhiing inh budng die thil cua cic nhin td tic dpng den chinh sich chi fra c6 tiic ciia cic doanh nghiep d Viet Nam.
Vi mat Ihuc tien. nghien ciiu giiip cac doanh nghiep d Viet Nam thiy dugc vai fro quan frgng cua quyet djnh chinh sich chi tra cd tiic, ciing thiy rd dugc nhiing tic dgng ciing chieu hay ngugc chilu ciia cic nhin td da nghien cim den ty le chi fri cd tiic, tir do giup
cic doanh nghiep dua ra dugc nhung giii phip, chinh sich hgp Iy, phil hgp vdi tinh hinh boat dgng ciia cdng ty minh.
Tuy nhien, nghien cuu cdn mdt sd ban che vi la ggi y cho cac nghien cim tiep theo nhu sau:
Nghien ciiu chi tap trung tim hieu vl ti Ie chi tti cd tiic bing tien mat cua 156 cong ty niem yet tren HNX ttong giai doan tii 2010 den 2014, chua gdm doanh nghiep Ii cdng ty bio hiem, tai chinh, ngan hing.
Nghien ciiu chua de cap den cic nhin td ben ngoai cdng ty nhu:
Han che ve mat phip ly, chinh sach thue cua Nhi nudc, tinh hinh Iam phit, dieu kien nen kinh t l . . .
Ket qui nghien ciiu chi chiing minh dugc 3 frong 10 nhin to dugc dua vio md hinh li inh hudng den ti Ie chi fri cd tiic bang tien mat cua cac doanh nghiep: ROE, LEV va EPS, frong do inh hudng ciia EPS la khdng ding ke. •
tiip theo trang 40
quy d fren, gii tri ciia R^ dilu chinh Ii 68,8%. Dilu nay co nghTa Ii cac bien ddc lip frong mo hinh da giii tbieh dugc 68,8%
sy thay doi ciia biln phu thugc (ROA). He sd R^ trong md hinh khi cao cho thiy kha ning giai thich ciia cic bien ddc lap trong mo hinh la khi tit. Cudi cimg, gii trj thing ke F ciia md hinh la 7,33 cho thiy md hinh hdi quy ma tic
gia sir dung cd y nghTa thdng ke d miic 1%.
5. Kit luan
Hoat ddng ciia cac QTDND trong thdi gian qua da cd nhiing ddng gdp quan trpng frong phat trien kinh tl xa hdi ciia khu vyc, gop phan giim bcit nan cho vay nang Iai d khu -vyc ndng thdn. Mac dil tinh hinh kinh te vT md frong giai doan nghien ciru cd nhieu yeu to bit Igi cho boat dpng tin dyng nhumg cac QTDND d khu vyc DBSCL vin duy fri dugc mdt ty suit sinh Igi dn dinh d miic khi cao. Tuy nhien, frong qui trinh boat ddng, ben canh nhiing ket qui dat dugc, cic QTDND vin cdn gap khdng it khd khan, ching han nhu: Quy md tuong ddi nhd, hoat dgng chu yeu la huy dgng vdn vi cho vay fren dja bin tuomg ddi hep, nang luc quan Iy dieu hanh cdn ban che, cong nghe phuc vu cho boat dgng kinh doanh hiu nhu khdng cd hoic c6 nhung rat lac hiu, boat dgng tm dung tiem in nhieu nii ro (thien tai, djch benh...). Ngoai viec dinh gii thyc ttang boat dgng cua cic QTDND, nghien ciiu nay cdn do ludng inh hudng cua mgt sd nhin td den lgi nhuin ciia cac QTDND. Ket qui nghien ciiu cho thiy ROA cd tucmg quan thuan vdi quy md, ty Ie vdn chii sd hiiu tren tdng tii sin va ting trudng vdn huy dgng, nhumg Iai cd moi tuomg quan nghjch vdi ty le ng xiu ciia cic QTDND. Lien quan den cic yeu td vT md, nghien cim nay khdng tim thiy sy anh budng cua ting trudng kinh tl va lam phat den ROA cua cic QTDND. •
5 8 I P CHI KHOA HOC & DAO TAO NGAN HAK ^ri 171 - TUAMC s 7nu
