TAP CHi CQNG M 0 N G
HIEU QUA CUA PHAN TICH KY THUAT TRONG DAU TlT TREN THI TRlTCfNG CHlfNG KHOAN VIET NAM
• PHAM THI MY CHAU
TOM TAT:
Phan tich ky thuat (PTKT) la phffdng phap phan tich dau iff da trd nen quen thudc dd'i vdi cdc nha dau tff (NDT) chffng khodn (CK). Viec ffng dung PTKT trong dau iff trdn thi irffdng chffng khoan (TTCK)d Viet Named mang lai ldi nhuan va cac chi bao PTKT cd phal huy hidu qua hay khdng? Day ludn la cau hdi dffdc cac NDT quan lam va lim Idi giai dap. Do dd, nghidn cffu se kilm chffng hieu qua cua PTKT trong dau tff tren TTCK d Viet Nam. Ke'l qua nghidn cffu da chi ra rdng vide ffng dung cac chi bao PTKT la cd mang lai ldi nhuan dang ke' cho NDT.
Hieu qua cua mdi chi bdo la khdc nhau, tuy ihudc vao ky ban dffdc lffa chpn va sff linh hoat trong vide ffng dung.
Tiif khoa: Phan lich ky thuat, MA, DMA, MACD, thi trffdng chffng khodn Viet Nam.
1. Gidithi^u 1.1. Gidi thi^u PTKT
Cd nhieu khdi niem ve PTKT nhff. "PTKT la vide nghien cffu hanh vi cua ihi trffdng chu ye'u bang vide sff dung do thj nham muc dich dff bdo xu hffdng gid trong tffdng lai" [9]; Edwards va Magee (2001) cho rang: "PTKT la khoa hpc ve sff ghi nhd cac dang do thi, lich sff giao dich thffc Id' (sff thay ddi gid, khd'i Iffdng giao dich,...) ciia mdt CK cu thd' hoac la chi sd'trung binh de' Iff bffc tranh qua khff dd cd the dff bao xu hffdng tffdng lai" va "Phffdng phap PTKT ve cd ban la mdt sff phan dnh quan die'm cho rang gid dich chuye'n trong xu hffdng, xu hffdng nay dffdc xdc djnh do sff thay ddi trong thdi do cua NDT dd'i vdi mdt loat Ciic ye'u td'kinh Id', tien te, chinh tri va lam ly.
Nghd thuat cua PTKT - hien nhien PTKT la mdt nghe thuat - la d chd xac dinh dffdc sff thay ddi
cua xu hffdng ngay khi nd bat dau va duy tri dau tff cho den khi cd cdc da'u hidu cho tha'y xu hffdng dd'i chieu" [11].
PTKT dffa trdn 3 gia dinh: gia phan anh ta'tca hanh ddng thi trffdng, gia bie'n ddng theo xu hffdng va lich sff lap lai chinh nd [9].
1.2. Gidi thieu cdc chi bdo PTKT Chi bdo dffdng trung binh Moving Average (MA) dffdc diing de xdc dinh xu hffdng thi trffdng.
Cdc nguyen tac giao dich dd'i vdi dffdng MA: (1) Mua khi MA di chuyen len va ban khi MA di chuye'n xud'ng, khdng thffc hidn giao dich khi ihi trtrdng khdng cd xu hffdng; (2) Mua tai did'm dffdng gid ca't MA tff dffdi ldn, ban lai die'm ma dffdng gid cat MA tff trdn xud'ng; (3) Mua khi MA ngan han cat MA dai ban iff dffdi len, bdn khi MA ngan han cat MA dai han iff tren xud'ng.
Chi bao hdi tu phan ky cua dffdng trung binh
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Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) dffdc lad ra bdi Gerald Appel va Hitschler vao dau nhffng nam 1980. MACD chi that sff hffu ich khi thi trffdng dang cd xu hffdng, dffdc giao dich theo 2 nguydn Id'c (1) Khi dffdng MACD cat dffdng tin hieu tff dffdi ldn se cho tin hidu mua vao, ngffde lai khi dffdng MACD cat dffdng tin hidu Iff tren xud'ng thi ndn bdn ra; (2) Khi dffdng MACD nam qua cao so vdi dffdng zero cho thay CK dang dffdc mua qua mffc. Ngffde lai, khi dffdng MACD nam qud tha'p so vdi du'dng zero se cho tha'y tinh trang ban qua mffc.
Khi dffdng MACD dap ffng dffdc ea hai nguyen lac tren, tin hieu mua ban cang dffdc khang dinh.
1.3. Hieu qud ddu tff
Benligiray (2004) cho rang "hidu qua md td cdch Ihffc cd nhan hoac nhdm tie'n hanh cac cdng vide ddn thdi didm cud'i cung nham dat dffdc mpl muc lieu"
Hieu qua dau iff la nhffng ke't qua NDT cd dffdc sau khi trff chi phi de cd kd't qud do sau mpl ky dau tff. Dd'i vdi cd phid'u, hieu qua dau tff the hien 6 thu nhap rdng NDT thu dffdc sau mdt qud trinh dau tff; hoac hieu qua dau tff cung cd the dffdc the' hien d vide dat dffdc mdt muc lieu ve quan ly kid'm scat cdng ly. Xet v^ mat tai chinh, hieu qua cua viec dau tff thd' hien d mffc sinh ldi tren vd'n bd ra sau mpl ky dau Iff.
2. Cd sd ly thuyd't
Theo Brock, Lakonishdck va LeBaron (1992):
Ta'l ca cac quy luat PTKT deu hoat ddng tdi vdi dff lieu dau vao la gia giao djch hang ngdy cua cac CK trong chi sd' trung binh cdng nghiep Dow Jones trong khoang thdi gian 90 nam.
Lo, Mamaysky va Wang (2000) chd rang: Cac mSu hinh ky thuat khdc nhau trong gia cd' phie'u cua TTCK My giai doan 19d2 - 1996 la cd lap lai.
Mac du nghidn cffu khdng chffng minh sff dung cac mlu hinh nay la du dd' cd ldi nhuan giao dich ldn nhffng cac tdc gid tin rdng nii ro la cd the giam hdply va PTKT cd the lam lang gia tri cho qua trinh dau tff.
Wong va Chong (2005) thffc hidn nghien cffu kha nang sinh ldi cua PTKT lai TTCK Thffdng Hai, Hong Kdng va Dai Loan da ke't luan rdng.
cdc chi bdo MA, EMA, DMA, TMA va MACD la cd mang lai ldi nhuan dang ke' so vdi chie'n Iffdc mua va nam giff bat ke' chi phi giao dich. Cac chi bdo nay phdt huy hidu qua ca trong giai doan thi irffdng tang manh, giam manh va dao ddng hdn hdp trdn ca 3 TTCK cua Trung Qud'c va ke't luan rang cd bang chffng cho tha'y 3 TTCK cua Trung Qud'c la chffa hieu qua trong giai doan nghidn cffu 1992 - 2004.
Metghalchi, Gomez, Chen va Monsef (2005) da thffc hidn kid'm tra cac quy lac giao dich cua dffdng MA dd'i vdi chi sdS&P 500 giai doan 1954 - 2004. Kd't qua cho tha'y, cac quy tac giao dich dffdng MA cd sffc manh dff bao dang ke cho de'n giffa nam 1980. Kd'tff nam 1980, cac quy lac giao dich MA khdng cdn phal huy hidu qua nffa. Ke't luan nay la phii hdp vdi sff Ihie'u hieu qua cua thi trffdng giai doan 1954 - 1984 va thi irffdng da trd nen hieu qua hdn tff nam 1984 dd'n nay.
Park va Irwin (2007) chd tha'y, ttdng td'ng so 95 nghidn cffu dffdc vid'l sau nam 1988, cd 56 nghidn cffu la cd kd't qua tich cffc yi hieu qua ci^a PTKT, 20 nghien cffu cd ke't qua cho rang PTKT khdng tao ra ldi nhuan, va 19 nghidn cffu chi ra cac ke'l qua PTKT khdc nhau. Cac tac gia tim tha'y ldi nhuan dau tff dang ke iff PTKT nhd sff thuan lien cua mdy tinh ca nhan, he thd'ng cdng nghe ihdng tin va sff phat tne'n cua cd sd dff lieu didn tuf.
Wdng, Manzur va Chew (2010) da nghidn cffu vai trd cua PTKT trong vide dff bad Ihdi did'm gia nhdp va thoat khdi thi irffdng. Ke'l qua cho tha'y cac chi bao nay lao ra ldi nhuan ddng kd', trong dd dffdng MA phdt huy hieu qud nha't, tid'p theo la DMA, RSI va gidi thich ly do vi sao cdc cdng ty thanh vidn cua SGDCK Singapore ludn cd ddi ngu PTKT rieng va kie'm dffdc ldi nhuan vffdt trdi bdng cdch ap dung cdc chi bdo PTKT.
Hrusova (2011) cho rang cac quy tac giao dich PTKT cd nhieu thanh cdng trdn thi irffdng mdi nd'i. Ke'l luan nay cung phu hdp vdi nhffng phat hidn cua Bessembinder va Chan (1995), cho rdng, giao dich theo PTKT thanh cdng hdn trong viec dff dodn bie'n ddng gid cd' phid'u tai cac thi trffdng mdi nd'i cua Malaysia, Thdi Lan va Dai Loan hdn la tai cac thi trffdng phal trien cua Nhat Ban, Hong Kdng va Han Qud'c.
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TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Metghalchi, Chang va Gomez (2012) nghien cffu vd kha nang tao Idi nhuan trdn TTCK Dai Loan dffa tren vide xay dffng nguyen tac giao dich dffa trdn 9 chi bdo PTKT phd' bie'n. Ke'l qua cho tha'y gan 90% md hinh xay dffng cho kd't qua tao ra ldi nhuan, trdng dd chi bdo MA50 Id cd hieu qua nha'l. Phat hidn nay cung ca'p them bang chffng chffng td cdc quy tac giao dich ky thuat la cd sffc manh dff bao.
Metghalchi (2013) da thffc hien kiem dinh thd'ng kd mdt sd' chi bao PTKT dd'i vdi chi sd' dai dien TTCK Viet Nam tff ngay 15/5/2002 dd'n 31/10/2012. Ket qua cho tha'y rang, cdc quy tdc giao dich PTKT cd mang lai Idi nhuan dang kd' va ke't luan rSng PTKT cd hieu qua va danh bai chid'n Iffdc mua - nam giff.
Singla (2015) nghien cffu ve khd nang tad ldi nhuan cua PTKT tren TTCK An Dp va kd't ludn ldi nhuan lad ra bdi 2 chi bdo PTKT la dffdng so vdi ldi nhuan cua chi so'thi trffdng.
Nhff vay, cd ra't nhieu cac nghien cffu chffng td PTKT la cd hidu qua va cd the ffng dung de' tim kie'm ldi nhudn tren TTCK, da ph^n cac nghien cffu tdp trung sff dung phffdng phap kie'm dinh thd'ng ke cac dffdng chi bdo PTKT, nhieu nha't la chi bao dffdng MA va cac dffdng EMA, DMA; chi bdo MACD; chi bdo RSI va mdt vai chi bdo khac, viec kid'm dinh dffdc thffc hidn cd trong dau tff ngan ban vd dai ban. Hau hd't cdc nghien cffu deu cho kd't luan la ffng dung PTKT se mang lai ldi nhuan dau tif.
3. Phu'dng phap nghidn citu
3.1. Cdc chi bdo PTKT dffac sff dung de kiem dinh
3.1.1. Chi hdo MA
M ,
I C ,
vdi Ml,n la gid tri trung binh cua n ngay tai thdi did'm l; C, la gid ddng cffa cua chi sd lai thdi did'm i; n la sd' ky cua dffdng MA.
Nghidn cffu se kid'm dmh dffdng MA ky ban 5 ngay (MAS), 10 ngay (MAIO); 20 ngay (MA20) va30ngay(MA30).
3.1.2. Chi hdo Dual Moving Average (DMA) Chi bdo DMA la ket hdp cua 2 dffdng MA ky ban khac nhau. Sff giao nhau giffa 2 dffdng MA
se chd lin hidu mua ban, cu the MA 5 va 10 ngdy (DMA 5 10), 5 va 20 ngay (DMA 5 20), 5 va 30 ngay (DMA 5 30) se dffdc sff dung.
3.1.3. Ch'i bdo MACD MACDt = EMA,,, - EMA,^ (m > n) Trong dd: MACD, la gid tri cua dffdng MACD tai thdi did'm l; EMAi „ la trung binh ham sd mu n ngay lai thdi did'm t; EMA, ,„ la trung binh ham sd' mu m ngay tai ihdi didm t.
Dd' phuc vu cho viec kid'm dinh, chi bao EMAt,n dffdc tinh nhff sau:
EMA . T(C -EMA ,.,„)*EMA .-,, vdi C| la gia ddng cffa cua chi sd'tai thdi diem I.
Gia tri MACD la chenh lech giffa gid tri EMA 12 va EMA 26 ngay, dffdng EMA 9 ngay cua MACD la dffdng lin hidu.
Phi giao djch (chu yd'u la hoa hdng mdi gidi ma NDT phai ira cho CTCK) dffdc gia dinh la 0.3%
cho mdt giao dich mua hoac bdn thanh cdng. Hien tai, phi giao dich cac CTCK dp dung cho NDT lai TTCK Viet Nam dao ddng tff 0.15 - 0.3%. Phi giao dich se giam khi gia tri giao dich tang.
Thdi ban thanh todn la T -i- 3. Gia sff thi trffdng ludn trong tinh trang thanh khoan td't. NDT cd thd' mua/ban dd dang sau I ngay khi lin hieu mua/ban xua't hidn. NDT ky quy 100% vd'n khi thffc hidn giao dich, khdng sff dung vd'n vay, khdng sff dung giao dich ky quy. TTCK Viel Nam khdng cho phep bdn khd'ng, nghien cffu se kie'm dinh theo hffdng la khi chi bdo phal tin hieu mua thi NDT se thffc hidn mua va se ban ra sau thdi gian nam giff 5, 10, 20 va 30 ngay (dd'i vdi VN Index) va nam giff 10, 20 va 30 ngay (dd'i vdi HNX Index) hoac la cho dd'n khi tin hieu ban xua't hidn ke Iff khi thffc hidn giad djch mua, tuy thudc cai nao it ngay hdn.
3.2. Gid thuye't nghien cffu
Nghien cffu ky vdng rang, ldi nhuan thu dffdc se dffdng, nen lie'n hanh kie'm dinh vdi gia thuyet HQ va dd'i ihuye'l H, nhff sau
Gid thuyet HQ: p = 0. ldi nhuSn trung binh bang 0, vide ffng dung chi bdd PTKT dd' giad dich Id khdng mang lai ldi nhudn cho NDT trdn TTCK Viet Nam.
Dd'i ihuyet H/: p > 0, ldi nhuan trung binh Idn hdn 0, viec ffng dung chi bdo PTKT dd' giao dich
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TAI CHINH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
la cd mang lai ldi nhuan cho NDT trdn TTCK Viet Nam.
Ldi nhuan hang ngay rt ciia chi sd', dffdc tinh:
: In
c,
Trdng dd: r^la Idi nhuan hang ngay cua chi so' tai thdi die'm t; C, la gid ddng cffa cua chi sd'tai thdi die'm t.
Ldi nhuan hang ngay dffdc dffa vao linh todn se la tong cua ta'l ca cdc Idi nhuan hang ngay tinh dd'n ngay x, sau khi cd tin hidu mua, vdi x la so' ngay nam giff, gid dinh la 5, 10, 20 va 30 ngay (dd'i vdi VN Index) va 10, 20 va 30 ngay (dd'i vdi HNX Index), dffdc tinh tff khi NDT thffc hidn giao dich mua hoac la cho dd'n khi cd tin hidu ban, luy thupc cai nao it ngay hdn.
Gia sff, la cd tin hidu mua tai cdc thdi diem t/.
tj,..., t^vd A = { t,, t2...; tfn)-
Q. Ia tap cua ta't ca cac ldi nhuan hang ngay, Cl
= U,ig^/, vdi {/;•} la nhffng khodng thdi gian cdch nhau do cac tin hidu mua thff i phat ra tai thdi die'm t|. Lffu y rang khoang thdi gian Ij cd thd' khac /.do i ?ij. n = N(Q) la so'ngay trong lapQ.
Ldi nhuan trung binh r cho khoang ihdi gian dffdc kie'm dinh la:
Gia sff r thudc phan phd'i chuan, tffc la r - N(p, a^/n), vdi /.i la gia tri trung binh ciia ldi nhuan; crla dp lech chuan cua ldi nhuan.
Gia tri thd'ng ke kiem dinh T dffdc linh nhff sau:
/'-
s/^ivdi s la dp lech chuan mau. Luc nay T xap xi phan phd'i chua'n T ~ N(0,1).
Dal z^ = ti_o,/2 vdi a la mffc y nghla, a dffdc chpn la 1%, 5% va 10% va z^ la gia tri tdi han cua thd'ng ke kiem djnh.
Ne'u T > z^ ta se tff chd'i gid thuyd't H„ va ke't luan rdng viec ffng dung chi bdo PTKT de' giao dich la cd mang lai ldi nhuan cho NDT.
Bang tdm tat cdc gia tri cua T de Idm can cff
ra ke't luan la se bdc bd hay chap nhan gid thuye't HO ffng vdi cac mffc y nghTa a (Bang 1).
Bang 1. Tom tdt cac gia trj cua T de ro ke't lugn kiem djnh
Mircy nghTa (a)
1%
5%
10%
Bac bo Hgkhi T> 2.3263 1 6449 < T < 2 3263 1.2816<T<16449
ChsTp nh#n Hokhi T < -2.3263 -2.3263 <T<-1.6449 -1.6449<T<-12816 Nguon: Bdng phdn phd'i chuan 3.3. PhffOng phdp ddnh gid hieu qud ddu tff chffng khodn
He sd' Sharpe la phan thffdng viec ffng dung chi bdo PTKT trdn mdt ddn vi rui rd ma chi bao nay mang lai. Ne'u hd sd' Sharpe > 0, la ke't luan rang, vide ffng dung chi bao PTKT de giao dich la cd hieu qua hdn chie'n Iffdc mua va nam giff. Ne'u S cang ldn Ihl viec ffng dung chi bdo cang cd hieu qua.
Trong dd: S la he sd' Sharpe; /"; la ly sua't ldi nhuan binh quan cua viec ffng dtrng chi bad PTKT i trong khoang thdi gian ddnh gid; T)J^ la ty sua't Idi nhuan binh quan cua chi sd' VN Index vd HNX Index trong khoang thdi gian danh gia;
a, la dp lech chuan cua ty sua't ldi nhuan cua vide ffng dung chi bad PTKT i trong khoang thdi gian danh gia.
3.4. Dff lieu nghien cffu
Dff lidu nghien cffu la gid ddng cffa hang ngay cua chi so' VN Index va HNX Index trong thdi gian 13 nam, tff thang 01/2006 de'n ngay 31/12/2018. Dff lieu dffdc lay tff Thom.son Reuters.
4. Ke't qua nghidn cii'u
Dd'i vdi ca 2 chi so' VN Index va HNX Index, cdc chi bdo MA, DMA va MACD deu cd hieu qua. Chi bdo MAIO, MA20 va MA30; DMA 5 20 va DMA 5 30 vdi ky han nam giff td'i thie'u 10 ngdy se mang lai ldi nhuan trung binh cad hdn nhieu so vdi vide na'm giff ky han ngdn hdn vd sd vdi chi bao MACD. Chi bdo MACD cd hidu qua
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TAP CHi CONG THirONG
dd'i vdi VN Index nhffng lai khdng phat huy hieu qua dd'i vdi HNX Index.
Ke't qua cho tha'y ffng dung cdc chi bdo PTKT se mang lai ldi nhuan chd NDT tren TTCK Viet Nam. Ldi nhuan trung binh thu dffdc dang ke' trong trffdng hdp khdng cd phi giao dich va se giam manh khi cd phi giao dich, nhat la khi NDT ndm giff CK thdi han ngan, tan sua't giao dich thffdng xuyen, so tien phi phai tra cdng nhieu. Kd't qua nay la phCi hdp vdi cdc nghien cffu cffa Wdng, Manzur va Chew (2010), Wong vd Chong (2005); phii hdp vdi ke't luan cua Hrusova (2011) khi cho rSng giao dich theo PTKT thdnh cdng hdn trong vide dff dodn bid'n ddng gid cd' phie'u lai cac thi trffdng mdi ndi hdn lai cac thi trffdng phdt tnen.
Do do, NDT cd the can nhac Iffa chon hinh thffc dau tff hoac gia tri dau Iffde' cd mffc phi td't nha'l cho minh. Ne'u chi phi giao dich dat dd'n mdt mffc dp nha't dinh. nd se loai bd hoan loan ldi nhuan dau iff tff vide ffng dung PTKT. Ngoai ra, cac CTCK vdi nghiep vu tff doanh, khdng phai tra ba't ky khoan hoa hdng mdi gidi nao, ldi nhuan thu dffdc tff ffng dung PTKT se ra't dang kd'. Dieu nay cijng giai thich vi sao bd phan PTKT van ludn dffdc chu trong tai cac CTCK, ddc biel la cdc cdng ty cd gia tri giao dich iff doanh ldn. Tuy
nhidn, cac CTCK phai tra phi thanh vien cho cac SGDCK. Khodn phi nay dffdc xem la chi phi cd dinh, dffdc tra hang nam, khdng phu thudc vao gid tri giao dich iff doanh cua cdc CTCK.
Kd't qua kid'm dinh cung cho tha'y vdi viec sff dung cdc chi bdo MAS, MAIO, MA20 va MA30 Ihi NDT khdng nen nam giff chffng khoan trong Ihdi han ngdn (nho hdn 10 ngay) va ciang khdng ndn nam giff chffng khodn thdi ban qua dai. Vi kd't qua kie'm dinh cho thS'y, dd'i vdi chi bdo MAIO, MA20 va MA30, viec nam giff chffng khddn thdi han 30 ngay mang lai Idi nhuan trung binh tha'p hdn so vdi trffdng hdp nam giff theo tin hieu phat ra tff cdc chi bdo MAIO, MA20 va MA30.
Viec quy dinh bien dp dao ddng gia cung anh hffdng ddng ke' de'n Idi nhuan tff vide ffng dung PTKT trong dau iff. Cd nhffng giai doan thj trffdng dang trong xu hffdng lang manh (2006 - 2007) hoac giam manh (2007 - 2009) nhffng do cd bien dd dao ddng gia nen thi trffdng tang/giam vffa phai trong ngffdng chan bien dd. Tuy nhien, ne'u khdng cd bidn do, kd't qua kie'm dinh va ke'l luan ve Idi nhuan Irung binh tff dau tff trdn TTCK Viet Nam cd thd' se ra't khdc so vdi kd't qua va ke't luan ma dd tdi dffa ra •
TAI LI^U THAM KHAO:
1 Benligiray, S. 2004, Human Resources Management. EskisehirAiiadolu University.
2 Brock, W., Lakonishock, J. and LeBaron, B 1992, 'Simple techniccd trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns'. Journal of Finance, vol. 47, pp. 1731 -64.
3. Edwards, R. u., Magee J- and Ba.sseld. WHC 2001, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Sih edition, CRC Press LLC, Florida.
4. Hrusova, I. 2011. How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets, Rigorous Thesis. Cliaiies University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies.
5. Lo, A. W, Mamaysky. H. and Wang, J. 2000, 'Foundations of Technical Analysis: Compulalional Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation', Journal of Finance, vol 55, pp 1705-64.
6. Metghalchi, M. 2013. 'Market Efficiency and Profitability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Vietnam', The Journal of Prediction Markets, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 11 -27.
7. Metghalchi. M., Chang, Y. H. and Gomez. X. G. 2012, 'Technical Analysis of the Taiwanese Stock Market', International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 90 -102.
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8 Metghalchi, M., Gomez. X.G.. Chen. C. P. and Monsef S. 2005, • Market Efficiency For S&P 500: 1954-2004 international Business &. Economic Research Journal, vol. 4. no. 7, pp. 23 - 30.
9. Murphy, J. J. 1999, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets- A Comprehensive Guide lo Trading Methods and Applications, New York Institute of Finance.
10. Park. C. H. and Irwin, S. H. 2007, 'What Do We Know about the Prof liability of Technical Analysis''', Joumai of Economic Surveys, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 786 - 26.
11. Pring, M J. 2014, Technical Analysis Explained: The Successful Investor's Guide lo Spotting Investmem Trends and Turning Points, 5th edn, McGraw-Hill.
12. Singla. R. 2015, 'Prediction from Technical Analysis -A Study of Indian Stock Market', International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences, vol. 3. no. 4. pp. 198- 02.
13. Wong, W. K. and Chong, T T L. 2005, 'Do the technical indicators reward chartists'' A study on the stock markelsof China, Hong Kong andTaiwan, Review of Applied Economics, vol l,no 2, pp 183-205 14. Wong, W. K., Manzur, M. and Chew, B. K. 2010, 'How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market'. Applied Financial Economics, vol. 13 (7), pp. 543 -51
Ngay nhan bai: 11/9/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chu'a: 2179/2019 Ngay ch^'p nhan dang bai: 1/10/2019
Thdng tin tdc gid:
ThS. PHAM THI MY CHAU
Trffdng Dai hoc Ngan hang TP. Ho Chi Minh
THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN INVESTMENT IN VIETNAM'S STOCK MARKET
• Master, PHAM THI MY CHAU Banking University of Ho Chi IVlinh City
ABSTRACT:
Technical analysis is an investment analysis method that has become familiar to slock investors. Is the application of technical analysis in stock investment in Vietnam profitable?
And does the technical indicators of economic development work effectively? Investors are always interested in these questions. Therefore, this study is lo verify the effectiveness of technical analysis in Vietnam's stock market. The study's results show that the application of technical indicators help investors gain profits significantly. The effectiveness of each indicator is different depending on the selected term and the flexibility of application
Keywords: Technical analysis, MA, DMA, MACD, Vietnam's stock market.
So 19-Thang 10/2019 303
