ASEAN TRONG BOI CANH CANH TRANH MY - TRUNG 6 BIEN DONG
HUYNH TAM SANG*
TRAN HOANG NHUNG**
Tom tdt:_Ba.i viet dgt ASEAN trong boi cdnh gia tdng cgnh tranh My • Trung d Biin Bong, tim hiiu nhUng lgi ich vd thdch thdc ciia ASEAN. Tren ca sd do, cdc tdc gid diim qua nhSng diem noi bat trong Ung xijt cua ASEAN xung quanh vdn de an ninh Biin Bong di rdt ra nhiing thanh tUu vd hgn eke. Tii do kit lugn r&ng mac du. ton tgi nhiiu thd thticli nhitng ASEAN vdn co thi thich dng trudc cgnh tranh My • Trung khi thi hien quyet tdm mgnh me han; thiic ddy mgt tinh cdm chung gida cdc quoc gia thdnh vi^n;
kheo leo trong cdc hdnh vi itng xit di tranh thu. ca My vd Trung Quoc; dieu chink cdc chink sdch di thuc ddy tinh thdn dodn kit vd y thdc cgng dong chung.
Tic khoa: ASEAN, Biin Bong, cgnh tranh My - Trung, hgp tdc.
1. Lcri i c h va t h a c h thtJc c u a A S E A N if B i e n D o n g
Bien Dong da va dang trcf thanh tam di^m CUE canh tranh chien lircfc My Trung, it nhat la trong gan mgt thap nien trcf lai day. Vcri viec Ngoai trufcfng Hillary Clinton, tai Dign dan Khu viic ASEAN (ARF) vao thang 7/2010, tuyen bo My co
"ldi ich quoc gia" doi vdi tU do hang hai tren Bien Dong*^', My da xae dinh Bien Dong thuoc ve loi ich chien lifoc cua cUdng quoc nay, g&n lien vcfi quyet tam "quay trd lai chau A". Ben canh do, Bien Dong con la mot cau phan trong "Chien IiWc An Do DiTcfng • Thai Binh Difcfng rgng mff va US
do" (FOIP) cua My Audi thcfi Tong thong Donald Trump, cung nhu" thugc pham vi khong gian chien Itfcfc An Do Ducfng - Thai Binh Dugng, dtrcfc de cap trong "Chien luge An ninh Quo'c gia" nam 2017, "Chien lifcfe Quo'c phong Quoc gia" nam 2018 va mgt so cac bao cao khac cho Quo'c hgi My*^'.
Cimg vcfi qua trinh tai khang dinh vai tro va vi the niidc ldn ciia My trong khu vyc, Bien Dong dang chiJttig kien sif "troi day" manh me ciia mpt Trung Quoe co gang vxion minh ra bien nhSm "tim lai nguon goc di bien eiia minh va dang phat trien dinh hucfng bien trong tong the cac ehinh sach xa hgi, kinh te va an ninh"'^'.
•^ TS. Huynh Tara Sang, ** Tran Hoang Nhung, TrUdng Dai hgc Khoa hoc Xa hoi va Nhan van - Dai hoc Quoc gia TP. Ho Chi Minh
.\^hien cdu /Jii/ij^A^^^^KA^^^
Ni'u nhi/ bien Caribe ducfc danh dau bori cAc quoc dao nho va diioc bao boc bdi mot nude M\ c6 kich thude luc dia thi Bi^n Ddng lai la dau trUdng ihi.- hi?n ro rang sUc manh ciia Trung Quoc *. Tren nen tang lua chon Bien E)6ng lam "\"ung dem"
cho chien lugc xay dutig cudng quoc bien.
Trung Qudc trien khai cic hoat dgng thdch thifc vai trd cua M5 trong khu vUc, hdng tien Uifi thiet l^p mgt trat tU khu vUc mdi, vdi Trung Qudc giijf vai trd dan dat.
Ddi vdl .ASE.VN, quan h? qudc te phUc tap a Bien Ddng th6ch thdc sif phat trien vk tinh cd ket cua Hi?p hgi. Tuy nhien.
viing birn nay cung mang lai nhijftig ldi ich Ihiet thuc, phii hdp vdi muc tieu cua Hiep hui. dd la. ciing ton tai va phat trien trong bdi canh chau A ngay cang giCf dia vi quan trgng trdn ban cd chinh tri the gidi. Ve tdng the, ASEAN co hai ldi ich quan trgng tai Bien Dong:
ThU nhat, Bien Ddng giup ASEAN the hien minh trong cac van dd then chdt cua chau A va rgng hdn la khu vuc chau A - Th^i Binh DUdng. Vdi \ i tri dia ly dac thu, Bien Ddng dUde bao bgc bdi tam qudc gia thanh vien cua ASEAN (trif Lao va Myanmar) \ a Trung Qudc. V\ "^am trgn ven trong pham \ i dia Iy va anh hUdng chinh tri cua ASEAN"^ " nen Bien Ddng la lifa chon thieh hdp nhat cho ASEAN trong bdi canh canh tranh nUdc ldn didn bien phdc tap. Tam quan trgng chien lUdc cua Bien Ddng dUdc khang dinh khi viing bien nay an ngU tren tuyen dUdng giao thong hang hai huyet mach ndi lien Thai Binh Duong vdi An Do Dudng, ehau Au vdi chau A. Trung Ddng vdi ehau A. Trong dd, eo bien Malacca dUdc coi la eo bien qudc te nhgn nhip thU hai tren the gidi chi sau eo
bidn Hormuz'"^'. Theo thdng ke tif Co' quan Quan Iy Thdng tin Nang luung My (EL-\|.
chi tinh rieng viec \ a n chuyen dau thd va khi thien nhien hda ldng. hdn SO'? thUdng mai dau tho hang hai toan elu di qua Bien Ddng nam 2016, trong dd hdn 90^; khdi lUdng dau tho van ehuyen thong qua eo bien Malacca''. Ben eanh dd, hang hda thiftmg mai va nguyen heu thd xuat - n h a p khau giUa cie nUdc va cae khu vUc, tif Trung Ddng sang chau A va ngUoe lai, hau bet deu di qua Bien Ddng de giam chi phi van chuyen. Vdi tam quan trong chien lUtfc, Bien Ddng ed the dUdc vi nhU "yet hau ciia cac tuyen dUdng bien toan cau"*^', gdp phan dam bao an toan cho hoat ddng luu thdng hang hda ciia tau thuyen cac nUdc qua khu VLTC. Day la cd hdi de ASEAN the hien vai trd va trach nhiem t n m g tam trong cac van de then chdt ciia khu vUc va vdi cac ddi tac ben ngoai. Bdi le, xung dot tai Bien Ddng, neu xay ra, se gay riii ro cho hdn 5 nghin ty USD thUdng mai qua vimg bien nay hang nam'^'.
Tranh chap lanh tho d Bien Ddng van la nguon cdn cho nhCfng eang thang va xung dot tiem tang giUa Trung Qudc va cae quoe gia khae trong khu vifc, dong thdi thach thUc vai trd ciia ASEAN. ASEAN cd the chu ddng tim kiem cac phudng phap giai quyet hda binh cho nhQiig mau thulm va tranh chap tai Bien Dong. TrUdc het, ASEAN phai cd nhan thUc chung trong cac van de Bien Ddng, sau la de ra chien lUdc eu the, diftfc trien khai tUng bUdc vdi no lUc dang ke, trong thdi gian dai. Vdi nhCfng ddng gdp eho an ninh Bien Dong, ASEAN the hien sif quan tam ddi vdi eae vaii de cua khu vuc va trach nhiem eua mgt to chdc vdi tUng qudc gia thanh vien, ddng thdi, ASEAN ciing dat dUdc cac 10 ich chien lUdc nhu
Huxnh Tdm Sdne. Trdn Hodng Nhung - ASEAN trong boi cdnh cgnh tranh...
"gdp phan giam thieu the dge quyen chien luoe cua mdt sd nUdc ldn, trUdc het la My va Trung Quo'c, d khu vifc nay, lam tang phan hdp tac, chia se ldi ieh gitfa ho va giUa hg vdi cae nUdc ASEAN^^^".
ThU hai, qua viee tao khong gian cho cac qudc gia doi thoai, trao doi quan diem, tim kiem giai phap hda binh cho nhUtig xung dot va tranh chap, thuc day hop tac kinh te bien, duy tri an toan va an ninh hang hai... ASEAN co dieu kien khang dinh vd nang eao vi the eua to chUc, tang cudng tinh hieu qua trong hdp tae cua ASEAN vdi cac ddi tac ben ngoai, chCfng minh ngUge lai nhCfng quan diem cho rang mgt to chiic duge t h a n h lap bdi nhCfng nUdc Dong Nam A nhd be se khdng eo nhOfng ddng gdp quan trgng vao cac van de khu vUc va qudc te. Viee tham gia ky ke't vao Hiep Ude Than thien va Hdp tac Ddng Nam A (TAC) ciia 38 quo'c gia trong va ngoai ASEAN (tinh den thang 10/2019) phan anh ngay cang nhieu quo'c gia quan tam va 1 ^ vgng vao vai trd va nhifng ddng gdp eiia ASEAN. Muc tieu khang dinh va nang eao vi the cua td chifc tren trUdng qudc te ddi hdi sif phan dau Iau dai ciia ASEAN, va qua trinh nay se cang khd khan hdn nQa khi dat trong bdi canh canh tranh anh hUdng My - Trung.
ASEAN ngay cang ehiu nhieu ap life tif ky vgng eiia cac qudc gia t h a n h vien va cae dd'i tac ben ngoai ve viec phat huy va trie'n khai vai tro ciia ASEAN trong thUc ti§n. No life ciia ASEAN cd the dong gdp dang ke vao cac van de then ehdt cua khu vifc, khi dd, ASEAN se cd the k h a n g dinh vi the ciia td ehUe trong mdt dang thCfc chii nghia da phUdng khu vifc. NgUdc lai, nhCfng h a n che trong ngi bg ASEAN se
bgc Id, tao dieu kien cho nhCfng mUu tinh ldi ich cua eae cUdng qudc. La td chUe trung t a m trong cau true an ninh khu vifc, ASEAN can " d t n dau" trong viec ehuyen doi Bien Ddng tif mdt vimg bien cd xung dot tiem t a n g sang viing bien rang huge va thue day su thinh vugng cua chau A.
Ve cd ban, ASEAN cd vi tri chien lUdc thuan ldi de cd the thuc day sU chuyen doi nay, nhUng se can co nhifng cap do mdi trong sU phd'i hgp va can dam chinh tri, cac cau true khu vife dUdc the che hda va cae cap do ngoai giao chii ddng chUa tifng ed'^^'. Day la thach thUc to ldn dd'i vdi trach nhiem ciia ASEAN trong viec duy tri eung nhU eung eo vi the' trung tara ciia to ehUe.
Trong bdi eanh ly le ciia Trung Qud'c trong t r a n h chap Bien Ddng dUa tren sif pha trdn giCfa cac quydn lieh SLf va yeu sach phap ly, trong khi van cd tinh md ho ve y nghia ciia "dUdng ehin doan" tren Bien Ddng*^^* va tie'n h a n h nhii'ng hoat dgng gay h a n tai Bien Ddng, ASEAN phai can bang giUa viec khdng la mdt ben trong tranh cha'p nhifng vdi tU each la mgt to chifc trung tam trong khu vifc, cd traeh nhiem tao ra mdi trUdng dam phan cho eae qudc gia cd tranh chap, tim kiem va thue day nhCfng giai phap hba binh cho eae tranh chap, dUa va'n de Bien Ddng vao trong eae chUdng trinh nghi sif, cae d i l n dan da phUdng khu vUc. Dat dUdc nhan thCfc ehung xung quanh van de an ninh Bien Ddng giifa cac qud'c gia thanh vien va dua ra tuyen bd thong nha't trUdc nhCfng cang thang tren bien dUdc tao ra bdi Trung Quoe la mdt thii nghiem day thach thiic ddi vdi tinh doan ke't noi khdi ASEAN, vdn hoat ddng dUa tren nguyen tae dong thuan.
.\);hien cihi Ddnfi \am A.^oJyZUfZ.
2. L nji xijf c u a . \ S H \ N : T h a n h W u va han c h e
Thuc te la .-\SE.AN cd' gang duy tri va thuc day quan he vdi ea My va Trung Qudc.
vi xem nhe mdi quan h^ nao cung deu khdng cd ldi cho Hiep hpi. ASE.-\N van to chUc cac hdi nghj thudng dinh thudng nien vii A\Sa ra thda thuan trong hau het cac linh vifc. nhan manh nguyen tSc khdng can thiep va phUdng cAeh .ASEAN' \'o cd ban, .ASE.AN da phan nao thanh cdng trong vi^c ldi keo cac cUdng qudc ben ngoai, noi bat la M\ va Trung Qudc, tham gia vat) cac khudn khd, cd che khu vifc cua ASEAN nhu ASEAN Cdng. EAS. ARF, TAC Trong bdi canh canh tranh .M\
Trung. ASEAN no lUc thuc day ddi thoai vdi ca M\ va Trung Qudc de trao doi quan diem, mdi quan tam ve cac van de an ninh khu wic va qudc te. chia sc thdng tin ve tien trinh hpi nhap khu vUc
Trong qua trinh canh tranh anh hUdng, .M.\ va Trung Qud'c tuy cd each tiep can khac nhau ddi vdi khu vife, nhung cd diem chung la ddu chu y tranh thii sU iing hp ciia .ASE.AN, Ddn cijf la tai Dien dan Hdp tac Kinh te chdu A - Thai Binh DUdng (APEC) lan thiJ 22 vao thang 1V2014. My va Trung Qud'e da canh tranh nhau xung quanh cac sang kien de thu hiit ASEAN. ASEAN cd the tim kie'm ldi ieh (mSc dii cd nhCfng nii ro n h a t dinh) cho td chUc. nhu cac sang kien hdp tac kinh te - thUdng mai, cac hiep dinh mau dich tu do va cac khoan dau tU tif ca Trung Qudc va Ms. Md rgng cac cam ket trong quan he vdi My va Trung Qud'c, trudc het la kinh te, giup ASE.AN hUdng tdi mpt mdi trudng tieu thu rdng ldn, thue day thUdng mai ndi khdi ASE.AN.
Trong linh vUc quan s^.i. dang dien ra sg canh tnmh gay gat giCfa mdt Trung Quoc d a n - tUng bUdc ciing cd sue manh quan sU nham hien thUc hda tham vong trd thanh CUdng qud'c bidn vdi mdt nUde My tang CUdng su hien dien hai quan de kiem che nhifng hanh ddng banh tnfdng cua T m n g Qudc. Tnfdc thue le dd, ASEAN da ed Igp tnfdng tUdng dd'i thong nhat lien quan den hoat dgng quan sU d Bien Dong. Thay vi gifl Bien Ddng hoan toan thoat khdi anh hudng ciia My va Trung Qud'c, ASEAN lifa chgn hanh dgng tUdng tU nhU mdt trung gian hba giai gida hai eUdng quoc nhara bao ve ldi ich tdi da cho khu vife'^3'. Tren Cd sd nhan thife dd, ASEAN da tien h a n h cae cudc tap tran chung vdi ca My va Trung Qud'c, tap trung vao ngan ngtfa tai nan tren bien va duy tri hdp tae quan sU giUa ASEAN vdi hai cUdng qud'c. Nam 2017 va 2018, Trung Qud'c va cac t h a n h vien ciia ASEAN da to chufc tap t r a n ciifu hd hang hai chung vdi quy md ldn. Nam 2019, ASEAN tham gia tap tran ehung vdi hai quan My. Sif can bang trong cac hoat dgng tap tran phan anh, ASEAN khong mong mudn nga ve My hay Trung Qud'c.
Trong qua trinh ddng gdp vao sif on dinh ciia khu vUc, ASEAN khdng phai va cang khdng mudn bien minh t h a n h mdt ben tham gia tranh chap, do dd, Hiep hpi tao dieu kien va khdng gian de eae quoe gia va vimg lanh tho ed tranh chap tren Bien Ddng ddi thoai, trao doi quan diem va thuc day tim kiem giai phap hba binh cho eae tranh cha'p tai Bien Ddng thdng qua cac cd che khu vUc nhU EAS, ARF, ADMM, .AD^DI^- vao thang 8/2018, Ngoai tnfdng Mike Pompeo da khang dinh earn ket xem ASEAN nhu trgng tam trong ehien luge An Dd Dudng - Thai Binh DUdng ciia My.
Huvnh Tdm Sdng, Trdn Hodng Nhung - ASEAN trong boi cdnh cgnh tranh..
Tuy nhien, ASEAN van duy tri tam the than trpng vdi khai niem chien lUdc ma My de xua't vi khdng mudn bi ldi keo vao cupc canh tranh quyen life ed the se "nhan chim" tinh trung tam ciia ASEAN khi dUa ra eae quyet dinh anh hUdng den an ninh khu vUe'^'*'
Cae thdng cao ehung ciia Hdi nghi Bg trudng ASEAN, cae tuyen bd eiia Chu tich Dien dan khu vUc ASEAN va eae cupc hpp cua cac bg trUcfng ngoai giao hang nam nhae lai mdi lien quan eiia ASEAN tai Bien Ddng^'^'. Va'n de Bien Dong eung dUde thao luan manh me trong cac cudc hgp, bat chap sU ba't man hay phan ddi ciia Trung Qud'e.
Tnmg Qud'c cho rkng ASEAN khdng phai la mdt didn dan thich hdp de giai quyet va'n de Bi^n Ddng*^^'. Tuy vay, ASEAN van dang phat huy tdi da cac cd che dd'i thoai va tham van eae ea'p nham thuc day tim kiem eae giai phap cho nhCfng tranh cha'p, va dieu nay khdng cd nghia la ASEAN dang cd gang lam phUe tap van de Bien Ddng nhU phia Trung Qud'e khang dinh. Thdi gian gan day, ASEAN da eo nhCfng bUdc tien trong viec bay td quan ngai ve tinh hinh eang thang leo thang tren Bien Ddng (dieu ma trUdc day ASEAN cdn nhieu han che'), nhan manh tU do hang hai va tdn trgng luat phap quoe te, nhu tai Hpi nghi cap eao ASEAN nam 2017 do Philippmes dam nhan vai trd Chii tich, va nam 2018 khi Singapore giU vai trb nay.
ASEAN ky ke't DOC vdi Trung Qud'c nam 2002, thd'ng nha't cae bien phap giam thieu nii ro va xay difng long tin da phucmg, budc dau the hien sif t h a n h cdng ciia ASEAN trong viec loi keo Trung Qud'c vao dam phan van de Bien Ddng. Dieu 3, dieu 4 eiia DOC k h i n g dinh cac ben tdn
trpng va earn ke't cac hoat ddng tU do hang hai va hang khdng tai Bien Ddng, giai quyet cac tranh chap, mau thuan bang bien phap hda binh, khdng de doa hoae sii dung vu life, tdn trgng luat phap qudc te' ^''.
Tuy nhien, viec trien khai DOC tren thife te van cdn nhieu ban che, va tuyen bd nay v l n chua phai la mgt van kien mang tinh phap ly va rang budc cao. Do dd, ASEAN dang no life thiie day thiet lap Bg quy tac uEng xii tren Bien Ddng (COO vdi Trung Quoe nham tao mdi rang huge chat ehe hdn gifla cac ben, vdi cac cam ket phap ly cu the hdn. Tuy nhien, nhCfng hanh dpng boi dap, tdn tao trai phep eae dao va bai can, quan sU hda tren Bien Ddng dU bao kha nang Trung Qud'c cd the se khdng dong y viec COC dUpe sCf dung nhU mdt edng cu thiet lap quy tac, rang budc ve mat phap ly de duy tri hba binh va on dinh d Bien Ddng*^*'. Ndi each khac, Trung Qud'e se khdng tU "mua day budc minh" vao van kien cd kha nang can trcf ti&'n trinh hien thifc hda tham vpng eUdng qud'c bien eua qud'c gia nay.
Bien Ddng ddng vai trd tru cdt trong viec ddng gop vao dn dinh khu vUc va phat trien kinh te'. Khi Bien Ddng on dinh, phan ldn khu vifc ciing hda binh'^^'. Nhan thUc sau sac ve gia tri chien lUdc nay, ASEAN da thuc day hdp tac tren bien gifla eae qud'c gia trong va ngoai khu vifc thdng qua cae hdi thao, diln dan khu vUc ciia ASEAN.
Mae du ASEAN ra ddi nham thiie day hdp tae kinh te, van hoa va xa hgi nhUng chinh mo'i quan tam ve an ninh va lo lang ve ehinh t n mdi la dgng life ehu ye'u thuc day eae thanh \den hdi nhap ASEAN'^*''. Thuc day hdp tac khu vUc giiip kilm che xung dot, tranh chap lanh tho va an ninh, ciing nhu giam bdt tac ddng tU vdng xoay canh
\ t.'/(u'/j ci'fu Ddni: .\'tim -\_- ^i j ^ - tranh My - Trung, Do dd, hdp tac vdi hai
cudng qudc trong viec dam bao an toan hoat ddng hang hai tai Bien Ddng cua ASEAN thdng qua c6c cd che khu vifc se phai ddpc tang ctidng hdn nSta, \-i ldi ich cua cac ben va hda binh. dn dinh trong khu vut.
Ben canh dd. .ASE.A.N cdn ddng gdp trong hdp tac t^i nguyen d Bien Ddng.
thuc day cSe qudc gia chung tay ddi phd vdi cudp bien. budn Iau. ma tu>. rtfa lien.
bidn ddi khi h^u. bao ve ngudn tai nguyen sinh thai dudi bien.. Dien hinh nhU Dien dan Bien ASEAN md rpng lEAMFi Idn dau tien vao nam 2012 da dat trgng tam thue day hpp tac toan khu \afc ve an ninh hang hai. giup tang eUdng ddi thoai kenh 1.5 gifla -ASEAN va eae qudc gia ddi tac, quan trong la ASEAN "ddng vai trb trung tam trong vipc td ehUc va dac biet lUa chpn ngi dung hdp tac va thao luan thiet thifc"'^''. Ben canh trao ddi ve an ninh hang hai. dien dan da nhan ra tam quan trgng cac nguyen tac va luat phap qudc te dUdc thfla nhan toan cau, dac biet la I'NCHiS, trong viec cung cap khuon khd difa h e n quy tac cho an ninh hang hai va hdp tac trong khu vue"~'
Tuy nhien, .ASE.AN cdn vUdng phai ban che trong can bang anh hUdng vdi My va Trung Qudc. Nhu^g khd khan cua ASEAN dfldc phan anh rd trong no luc giai quyet cac yeu sach lanh thb d Bidn Ddng. mgt van de da lam eang trai kha nang cua ASKAX trong nd life dat dfldc mot lap trudng thdng nhat. \'iec ASEAN khdng cd tieng ndi va hanh dgng chung lien quan true tidp den sif trdi day cua Trung Qudc da giup cudng qudc nay gia tang tinh quyet doan trong khu v\Sc'^\ Tuy rang .ASK.VN cd nhflng no lflc phat huy vai trb
ciia cac cd che' khu vUc trong viec giai quyet van de Bidn Ddng nhUng cac the che nay van chua dat dUpc higu qua nhU mong ddi. Cariyle Thayer nhan dinh, "cau true an ninh khu vflc ma ASEAN ddng vai trd trung tam la mdt sU tdng hdp ldn xdn cac Cd che da phUdng vdi nhflng trach nhiem chong lan. Cac Bd trfldng Qud'e phdng ASEAN van ehua thflc sU chii ddng trong viec giai quyet cac van de an ninh bien. Dien dan khu \uc ASEAN cd the chi thue day cae bien phap xay dung long tin, ngoai giao phdng ngfla van cdn Id mdt van de trong tfldng lai xa. ADMM+ da cho thay mdt sd da'u hieu tien trien, nhfltig toe dg dien ra cham ehap" va "eae eupe thao luan gifla ASEAN va Trung Qud'c ve COC dudng nhu van ehfla di den dau"'^"".
Ddi mat vdi sfle ep tfl Trung Qud'c, .ASE.AN vdi nhCfng ran nflt ndi khdi da snfdng phai kho khan khi ra quyet dinh difa tren nguyen tae dong thuan. Vdi viee sif dung "con bai kinh te"" vdi tifng qud'c gia thanh vien, lam giam do ke't dinh ngi khdi ASEAN, Trung Qud'c da kha t h a n h edng khi ldi keo mgt sd qud'e gia can trd vide dfla van de Bien Ddng vao thao luan trong cae chfldng trinh nghi sif cua cac dien dan da phUdng. Cu the la tai Hgi nghi Ngoai tnfdng ASEAN nam 2012, Campuchia trong vai trb ehii tich da khdng dua ra dUde thdng cao ehung. Ke't qua nay da giang mgt ddn manh me vao su doan ke't eiia ASEAN, lam hoc Id nhflng khae biet v l quan die'm gifla cac thanh vien, phan anh
"mau thuan gifla ldi ich tap the vdi lpi ich qud'c gia, ldi ich Iau dai vdi Ipi ich ngan han. Ifinh anh ciia mdt ASEAN thd'ng nhat, dai dien cho quan diem va loi ich eiia khu vife Dong Nam A bi anh hudng nghiem trpng"'^^'.
Huynh Tdm Sdng, Trdn Hodng Nhung - ASEAN trong bdi cdnh cgnh tranh...
Khac biet ve ldi ich qud'e gia gifla cac thanh vien ed tac dgng khdng nhd tdi viec dua ra quan diem chung eua ASEAN, va nd life can bkng anh hUdng My - T n m g de bao ve lpi ieh, quyen tU ehu va vai trd t n m g tam eiia ASEAN. Thdi gian gan day, khi Trung Qud'e tang cUdng anh hudng t r e n Bien Ddng, cac t h a n h vien ASEAN da nd life hien dai hda life lUdng vu trang, dac biet la hai quan va khdng quan. Ben canh dd, ASEAN eung day manh hdp tac kinh te' va phdi hdp trong cac hoat dgng an ninh hang hai vdi cae eUdng qud'c ben ngoai nhfl Australia, An Dp, N h a t Ban. Rd rang, ASEAN da ehii y nhieu hdn den khia canh can bang quyen lUc d Bien Ddng, bao gom tang cflcfng nang lflc quan sif {ngi khoi) va phat t r i l n quan he vdi eae efldng qudc cung ehung ehi hudng (like-minded) ngoai khoi.
Ddng thai ciia ASEAN ^\ gam thong diep rkng ASEAN dang nd life ean b&ng trong quan he My - Trung.
3. Thay \if\ k e t
Trong bd'i canh canh t r a n h dia ehinh tri tai Bien Bdng, ea My va Trung Qud'c deu khdng nhan dflde sU iing hd tuyet doi tfl ta't ca cac t h a n h vien ciia ASEAN (bdi viec nhin n h a n va tim kiem nhflng phfldng tien phue vu eho ldi ieh qud'c gia ciia moi nude la khae nhau). Do dd, trong tfldng lai, k h a n a n g "ehgn phe" cua ASEAN dudng nhfl khd xay ra. Hien nay, ldi ich ciia ASEAN se dfldc bao ve to't hdn bang caeh duy tri mdi quan he tot vdi ca hai cUdng qud'c de to chflc nay cd the tiep tuc giao dich tU do vdi T n m g Qud'c trong khi dupc hucfng Ipi tfl chiec d an ninh eiia j^^y(26) L^ ^^g (,}^,j,, J a n g gat hai nhieu t h a n h tifu va n h a n dUdc sif quan tam eua nhieu nfldc ldn, ASEAN cd the t a n dung vi
the trung tam ciia minh de gia tang ldi ich eho Hiep hgi'-"', thay vi thu dgng trcf t h a n h cdng cu phue vu cho mue dich ehien lUdc ciia eae eUdng qud'e.
Mue dich cua ASEAN la thuc d^y hba binh va on dinh khu vUc, trong tam nhin dd, ASEAN da phat trien va trd thanh mdt to chflc da phUdng trUdng thanh, vdi sU ldn manh ve tam vdc, eung nhCfng ddng gdp eho hda binh, thinh vUdng va on dinh dia ehinh tri cua khu vifc. Cae nguyen tae ra quyet dinh dUa tren tinh than ton trpng lan nhau, tham van va dong thuEin ddng vai trd can ban. Ben canh dd, duy tri nguyen tae "trung lap" ciia ASEAN se phu hdp cho mgt mdi tnfdng trong dd khdng ed nhflng tranh chap ldn gifla cae cfldng qud'c (eu the la My va Trung Qudc) hay gifla eae qud'e gia thanh vien vdi nhau'^^', phu hdp vdi Tuyen bd ZOPFAN. ASEAN cd the lam giam tac dpng tfl canh My - Trung Qud'c d Bien Ddng bang each han che' dinh Hu tdi eae tranh ehap gifla hai cfldng qud'c va tinh toan nhflng nii ro cd the xay ra trong qua trinh tim kiem ldi ich tfl ca hai phia.
ASEAN can cd gang duy tri va tan dung hieu qua tinh chat trung tam ciia to ehfle trong ca'u true quan he qud'c te khu vifc de tim kiem nhiJng ldi ieh an ninh ldn hdn va nang eao vi the ciia to chfle tren trUdng qud'c te, thdng qua vide tham gia tich cUc hdn vao cae van de then chd't ciia khu vUc, dac biet la tam nhin chung vd tinh hinh Bien Ddng.
De dat dflpc dieu nay, trfldc het, ASEAN phai the hien lap trfldng manh me hdn trong cae van de an ninh khu vflc va can dieu chinh phfldng thflc ra quyet dinh ehung (sif dong thuan dUdc quy dinh trong chUdng VII cua Hie'n ehUdng
!0 .\ghien cvtu Ddng '
ASE.AN L Trong khi ASE.AN dang no lflc trd thanh mpt dien dan de thao luan, chinh cau true cua to chflc da ngSn can vi^c dua ra mdt ket luan thifc sU cho cae van de dat ra'^'. Co de xuat cho rang .ASE.AN cd the difa ra quyet dinh thdng qua thda thuan tfl tam tcri chin thanh vien eua Hipp hpi'^'^'. Dieu nay nen dUdc xem xdt va ed the la giai phap can thiet cho ASEAN trong bdi canh hien tai. mae dii se vap phai nhieu khd khan va ddi hoi nhflng no life thao luan trong thdi gian dai gifla cac quoe gia thanh vien.
Trong vien canh hpp tac d Bien Ddng.
ASEAN can thuc day hdp tae gifla cac qud'c gia trong va ngoai khu vflc vi ldi ich eua cac ben lien quan, b^t dau tfl nhflng linh vflc It nhay cam va ed the huy ddng sfl ddng ldng aia ASE.AN nhU cac van de an ninh phi truyen thd'ng. Mdt tinh cam ehung (we-feeling) gifla eae thanh vien ddng \'ai trd gSn ke't td chflc, tang eUdng tinh ed ket va giam thieu cac tac ddng tieu cUc tfl ngoai khdi. Thfle te nay phai dupe chu y hdn vi trong khi the he eae nha lanh dao ASEIAN cu da ed nhilu thap ky trau doi sif gan ket ea nhan, tinh ban va su hieu biet lan nhau thi eae nha lanh dao khu vUc ngay nay chfla danh nhieu thdi gian de dau tfl eho vdn ehinh tri nhkm tao nen nhflng tinh ban mang tinh ket nd'i'^^'. Ngoai ra, ASE.AN can thuc day viec xay difng mdt tam nhin rdng ldn hdn vl mdt khu \afc Ddng Nam A dn dinh va phat trien cac the che manh me hdn vl an ninh, hdp tac va ehinh tri d khu vue. Dilu na>' se thuc day .ASE.AN hdp tac rgng hdn vdi cac dd'i tac ben ngoai khu \-Uc. ngan ngfla trudng hpp cau true khu \-Uc bi chi phdi va Igch ban vl quy dao ciia mgt cUdng qud'cy.
CHU THICH
1. -Remarks at Press Availability". Hillary Rodham Clinton. Secretary of State.
National Convention Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, July 23, 2010, f.S State Department, tai dia chi: httpsy/2009- 2017.state.gOv/secretao-/200920l3cUnton/r m.'2010/07/145095.htm. truy cap ngay 2T/6/2019.
2. "The Trump Administration's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific": Issues for Congress", Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report, R45396, October 3, 2018; Deputy Assistant Secretary Alex Wong, "Briefing on the Indo-Pacific Strategy", Department of State, April 2. 2018.
3. Geoffrey Till, ""Thdi khac bien" chdu A va
\an dl Bien Ddng", trong Dang Dmh Quy Nguyin Minh Ngpc (dong chu bidn) (2013), Biin Dong: Dia chinh tri, lgi ich chinh sdch va hdnh dgng cda cdc ben li&n quan, NXB The gidi, Ha Npi. tr. 19.
4. Robert D. Kaplan, 'The South China Sea is the Future of Conflict", Foreign Policy, 15/8/2011, tai dia chi: https://foreignpoU- cy.coni/2011/08/15/the-south-china-sea-is- the-future-of-conflict/, truy cap ngay 13/6/2019.
5. Ha Anh Tuan, "Vai trb ciia ASEAN trong quan ly tranh chap cf Bien Ddng", trong Dang Dinh Quy (chu bien) (2012), Tranh chdp Bien Dong: Luat phdp, dia chinh tri vd hgp tdc quoc te, NXB The gidi. Ha N6i, tr. 51.
6. Joshua P. Rowan (2005), "The U.S. - Japan Security Alliance, ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute", Asian Survey, Vol. 45 No. 3, p. 415
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration 27/8/2018, tai dia chi':
https-y/www. ei a.gov/todayinenergy/detail .p hp?id=36952, truy cap n ^ y 13/6/2019.
8. Robert Kaplan, "The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict", Foreign Policy
Huynh Tdm Sdng, Trdn Hodng Nhung - ASEAN trong bd'i cdnh cgnh tranh...
15/8/2011, tai dia chi: https://foreignpoU- cy .com/2011/08/15/the-south-china-sea-is- the-fiiture-of-conflict/, truy e | p ngay:
13/06/2019.
9. Bonnie S. Glaser (2015), Conflict in the South China Sea, New York: CouncO on Foreign Relations, p. 2.
10. Nguyen Hong Qu^n (2015), "Mflu do dgc chiem Bien Ddng ciia Trung Qudc va ddi sach cua ASEAN", Tap chi Nghien cdu quoc te. So' 1 (100), tr 41-58.
11. Ernest Z. Bower, "The Quintessential Test of ASEAN Centrality: Changing the Paradigm in the South China Sea", Center for Strategic & International Studies, 21/6/2011, tai dia chi:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/quintessen- tial-test-asean-centrality-changing-para- digm-south-china-sea-0, truy cap ngay 14/6/2019.
12. Bonnie S. Glaser (2012), Armed Clash in the South China Sea, New York: Council on Foreign Relations, p. 3.
13. Eijas Ariftin, "Being pro-active in the South China Sea", The Asian Post, 25/10/2018, tai dia chi: https://theasean- post.com/article/being-pro-active-south- china-sea, truy c§p ngay 15/6/2019.
14. Mark J. Valencia, "ASEAN Security 'Centrality' and the South China Sea", The Diplomat, 23/8/2018, tai dia chi:
https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/asean- security-centrality-and-the-south-china- sea/, truy cap ngay 22/11/2019.
15. Rodolfo C. Severino (2010), "ASEAN and the South China Sea", Security Challenges, Vol. 6, No. 2, p. 46.
16. Li Xiaokun, Zhang Ting, "Foreign Minister warns of South China Sea issue", China Daily, 26/7/2010, tai dia chi:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010- 07/26/content_11046544.htm, truy cap ngay 8/6/2019.
17. "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea", Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, tai dia chi:
https://asean.org/?static_post=declaration- on-the-conduct-of-parties-in-the-south- china-sea-2, truy cap ngay 27/6/2019.
18. Rene Pattiradjawane, "ASEAN and the South China Sea: A new dawn in Asian regionalism", ASEA7V Studies Program, tai
dia chi:
https://thcasean.org/read/articIes/173/ASE AN-and-the-South-China-Sea-A-new- davra-in-Asian-regionalism, truy cap ngay 15/6/2019.
19. Affabile Rifawan - Novi AmeHa (2018),
"Two Major Powers in Captivating Regional Influence and Dynamics:
Comparing Foreign Policies of China and United States in Southeast Asia", Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 266.
20. Mely Caballero-Anthony (2015), Regional Security in Southeast Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, p. 87.
21. Le Lena (2018), Vai tro cua ASEAN trong hgp tdc an ninh - chinh tri Bong A tix goc nhin cua ly thuyet phan tich mgng liCdi xd hoi, NXB Dai hoc Qudc gia Ha Ngi, tr. 105- 106.
22. Vincent Wei-cheng Wang - Chyungly Lee (2014), "ASEAN and Recent Tensions in the South China Sea" in Szu-shen Ho, ICuan-hsiung Wang, and Yingjiu Ma (2014), A Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Prospects for Peace in the South and East China Seas, Prospect Foundation, Taipei, Taiwan, p. 146.
23. AmeHa Long - Peter Chalk, 'Tiptoeing around the nine-dash line: Southeast Asia after ASEAN", The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 28 Feb 2017, tai dia chi:
https://ww^v.aspistrategist.org.au/tiptoeing- around-nine-dash-line-southeast-asia- asean/, truy cap ngay 27/6/2019.
24. Calyle A Thayer, "Trung Quo'c hien dai
\'ehien ciht Dong Sam A. .^
hoa hai quan \'a My tai can bang sang chau A: He luy ddi vdi sfl 6n dinh ddi vert sU on dinh tren Bien Ddng". trong Dang Dinh Quy - Nguyen Minh Ngoe idong chu bient (20131. Biin Dong: Dia chinh tn, lgi ich chinh sdch ua hdnh dgng ciia cdc ben lien quan, NXB The gidi. Ha Nin. tr. 162.
25. U- Lena (20181. Vai tro ciia ASE.\.\ trong hgp tdc an ninh - chinh tri Dong A tir goc nhin ciia ly thuyet phan tich mgng lum xd hgi. NXB Dai hoc Qudc gia Ha Npi, tr. 103.
26. Sui'^hingZao(2015), "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China-US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia- PaciDc". Joumal of Contemporary China, Vol. 24. No. 93. p. 387.
27. Eija.s Ariffin, "Being pro-active in the South China Sea". The Asian Post.
25/10/2018, tai dia chi: httpsi//theasean- post.com/articIe/being-pro-activc-.south- china-sea. truy cap ngay 15/6 2019.
28. John Lee. "ASEAN Ma^t Choose: America or China?". The National Interest, 18/12/2018, Lai dia chi: httpsiZ/nationaHn- terest.org/feature/asean-must-choose-amer- ica-or-china-39067?page=0'7r2Cl, truy c^p ngay 16/6/2019.
29. Shin Kawashima. "ASEAN and the Need for Consensus", The Diplomat, 9/9/2016.
tai dia chi:
https://thediplomat.com/2016/09/asean- and-the-need-for-consensus/. truy cap ngay 7/6-2019.
30. John Lee, "ASEAN Must Choose: America or China?", The National Interest, 1S12/2018, tai dia chi: https://nationahn- tert'st.org/feature/asean-must-choose-amer- ica-or-china-39067?page=0'"f2C2, truy cap ngiiy 16/a2019.
31. Hoang Thi Ha, "Asean 2018: Reconciling consensus with new realities". The Straits Times, Apr 23. 2018. tai dia chi:
htt p.* ://www.strai tstimes.com/opinion/asea n-201S-reconciling-consensus-with-new- reaUlie.-^. truy cap ngay 27.6 2019.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 1. Affabile Rifawan Xm i Amelia (2018).
-Two Major Powers in Captnating Regional Influence and Dynamics:
Comparing Foreign Pohcies of China and United States in Southeast Asia".
Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal, Vol. 4, No 1.
2. Bonnie S. Glaser (2015), Conflict in the South China Sea. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
3. Joshua P. Rowan (2005), T h e U.S. - Japan Security Alliance, ASEAN, and the South China Sea Dispute". Asian Survey, Vol. 45, No. 3.
4. Mely Caballero-Anthony (2015), Regional Security in Southeast Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
5. Le Lena (2018), Vai trb cua ASEAN trong hgp tdc an ninh - chinh tri Dong A tit goc nhin ciia ly thuyit phdn tich mgng liidi xd hgi, NXB Dai hoc Qudc gia Ha Ngi.
6. Nguyin Hong Quan (2015), "Muu do ddc chiem Bien Dong cua Trung Qudc va dd'i sach cua ASEAN", Tap chi Nghien eitu quoc te, So 1 (100).
7. Dang Dinh Quy (chu bien) (2012), Tranh chdp Bien Dong: Lugt phdp, dia chinh tri vd hgp tdc quoc te, NXB The gidi, Ha Noi.
8. Dang Dinh Quy - Nguyin Minh Nggc (ddng chu bien) (2013), Bien Dong: Dia chinh tri, lgi ich chink sdch vd hdnh dgng cda cdc ben lien quan, NXB The gidi, Ha Npi.
9. Rodolfo C. Severino (2010), "ASEAN and the South China Sea", Security Challenges Vol. 6, No. 2.
10. Suisheng Zao (2015), "A New Model of Big Power Relations? China-US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia- PaciDc", Journcd of Contemporary China.
Vol. 24, No. 93.
